03-14-2007, 07:59 AM | #351 | |
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Eh I don't like playing PM word games so I'm not really going to go down the path of noting that you still aren't saying what mine said. I'll assume that all PMs went out differently to avoid that type of thing from happening. I do still find the Jack Armstrong thing to be one of those type of moves that a smart wolf like yourself would try to do as a calculated risk to buy some trust from people in a place where you can't win any. It might not be much, but I think I'm leaning towards that vote to start today. I maybe can be convinced to move elsewhere, but right now I'm not sure what to make of voting records because I blame Bullet as much or more than those who voted for him. |
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03-14-2007, 08:05 AM | #352 | |
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I don't see how you can fault my math on this one. For a wolf Night Kill, one wolf must send a PM request in. If Ardent was tapping Cronin's phone, he would know if cronin sent in a night pm Ardent says Cronin did not send in the night pm. This means either: A) Ardent is lying for some wolfish reason or B) Cronin was not the person who sent in the Night pm. I said that means if there are 3 wolf roles, that Cronin can't be one of the three, he could only be the other 2 wolves who didn't send in the night PM. That statistically makes it less likely that Cronin is a wolf because of that. I said Cronin might still be a wolf, but on day 2, Ardent's comment was enough to let Cronin slide while we looked at better targets. I gave my list of who I thought were better targets (including you on that list) of you and Path mainly. Today my list is still the same, but with Saldana on as well due to him not having a role as I initially feared on the good side and wanting to give him a pass because of it. |
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03-14-2007, 08:13 AM | #353 | |
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Besides, instead of trying to get "suspicious" people, I'd rather look for people I want to clear first for my trusted list.
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03-14-2007, 08:17 AM | #354 | |
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03-14-2007, 08:54 AM | #355 |
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03-14-2007, 08:59 AM | #356 | |
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I believe your vote on him was nothing to do with the game. I don't see how getting a bunch of votes is going to make him more likely to make a night action. Using something as powerful as a phone tap in order to clear someone when the chances are that a good guy won't have a night action just strikes me as a complete waste. |
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03-14-2007, 09:04 AM | #357 | |
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I'm not aware that I've been arguing with your maths, it does make it less probable that st cronin is a wolf. However to my mind, look at it from a cost-gain standpoint. If t cronin turns out to be bad then we get a whole lot more than just one dead wolf. We get a line on you, we get a line on AE and it looks highly unlikely that ITC is a wolf. If we vote ITC or me and we turn out to be a wolf what more do we gain? Nothing more than another bunch of vague indications which we already have a bucketload of. |
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03-14-2007, 09:07 AM | #358 | |
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I don't understand why you are pressing him on this. I think it perfectly makes sense. Many times in games I have had a role that let me learn more about someone. I almost always end up using it on my top suspect to either give me proof to stay on them or to change directions. It seems Ardent was most interested in learning if he should distrust Cronin or not. Was it all due to this game reasons? probably not. Its probably a case of Ardent and Cronin having a relationship that he would have more fun in this game if he could go for the ride with Cronin so to speak. So to him the person he was most interested in trying to clear or damn was his buddy cronin. Would I have chosen Cronin there? Probably not. I probably would have chosen Saldana for the reasons I previously said. Do I think Ardent's reveal clears Cronin? No I've already stated what I feel about the reveal. I just don't get why you are trying to hammer this point home though today. It feels to me you are trying to discredit Ardent in another attempt to have a run on Cronin. I'm not sure if this feels wolfish to me or just feels misplaced is all right now. I fully understand your wanting to create traction earlier in the day so your vote can have more meaning. I just don't know if Ardent is that line to follow is all. |
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03-14-2007, 09:09 AM | #359 | |
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You see I don't agree with that. I am tending to think Ardent is ok regardless of Cronin's guilt or not. I just don't get a wolf vibe from Ardent at all. If Cronin is bad and you want to lynch me because of it, I don't really care. I just find a few other people including you who feel much more wolfish to me than Cronin is all. I fully understanding trying to lynch people to get the most information out of what happened, especially when the seer is gone. However I just don't usually feel a day 1 vote is the place that is best done from. More often than not a day 1 vote is a run off between villager vs villager and wasting 3-4 days trying to chase your tail from it ends up just wasting 3-4 days. |
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03-14-2007, 09:10 AM | #360 |
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A google of Jack Armstrong tells me that he's a baseball player who played for the Cincinnati Reds. Someone's got a sense of humour.
The obvious conclusion is that we have a mercenary trying to find an employee. Perhaps too obvious. |
03-14-2007, 09:13 AM | #361 | |
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Well like I said before the name Armstrong, it felt to me like it was a hint of being the bodyguard. Thats why I didn't press him on it and said I would let it slide. Now with both the seer and bodyguard dead.. I don't feel bad at all pressing him on this. Worst case scenerio he is the duke and ends up using his duke powers to save himself anyways. I just don't see a cia agent coming out revealing a name like that for no reason. |
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03-14-2007, 09:14 AM | #362 | |
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We've got next to nothing solid to go on. If someone is going to use one of what now looks like a very limited stock of powers I think we deserve some sort of explanation. If AE is telling the truth then I think it was a waste of a power. |
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03-14-2007, 09:15 AM | #363 |
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03-14-2007, 09:18 AM | #364 | |
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Well I fully disagree with this and have given my reasons. As far as next to nothing to go on, you've already commented on what I felt was something to go on today. I feel you are pushing a bit too hard for a CIA agent right now with a certain agenda. |
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03-14-2007, 09:23 AM | #365 |
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Well maybe it's because I'm inexperienced. But I don't think anyone will argue that my style so far has been to press things to try and get information. I'm curious what my agenda would be. With the game in its current state surely all the wolves have to do is sink into/stay in the background and chances are they're going to win.
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03-14-2007, 09:27 AM | #366 |
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And I have to press things now before the night actions are revealed because I have very little time afterwards.
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03-14-2007, 09:29 AM | #367 | |
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I think you have been putting forth pretty well thought out comments, and inexperience was never in my mind. I think your thoughts for why you would like to lynch cronin to find out more about day 1 are logical, I just think a day 1 vote rarely tells us much more than the odds just aren't with us. Only when we get lucky.. well do we get lucky. Where I feel an agenda comes in is when you start going down the path of not necessarily attacking, but at least trying to discredit anyone who gave any support of Cronin. Its a very painful fact that sometimes Good guys put trust in bad guys. Whether or not cronin is a bad guy will be seen at some point, but that doesn't automatically mean anyone else there is bad too. In fact unless they are very daring, I don't usually see wolves backing each other at the beginning of the game. They wouldn't know they would nail the Seer that night, and they must assume Cronin or someone in the group would have been scanned that night. One seer scan could reveal all of them by doing that. So I still stand by my original statement. i feel Ardent is likely good, I don't know about Cronin, but have other targets that are much more wolfish to me that I will be going for. |
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03-14-2007, 09:31 AM | #368 | |
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Yeah I understand that fully. Don't get me wrong. I enjoy people being more involved in a discussion, and I know your reservations coming in was that you feared with your time zone it would make it more difficult or perhaps less enjoyable. So I'm trying to work with you in the discussion here, I just think I disagree with the conclusions that are coming out of them and it is causing me to have reservations about your loyalty. |
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03-14-2007, 09:31 AM | #369 |
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We're past deadline, right? WAKE UP LATHUM
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03-14-2007, 09:34 AM | #370 |
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Narcizo, what are your thoughts on ITC? Saldana?
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03-14-2007, 09:43 AM | #371 |
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I think Saldana could be the mercenary although I don't know how likely he is to be that obvious. I think it's odd that he should decide to give himself a name like that considering how suspicious it normally is to rerveal that your PM was different from anyone else's but I find it unlikely that Lathum would give him a name and not everyone else.
I think ITC made a bit of a hash of the first day vote but from my limited experience of him that seems to be in keeping with his usual play. (no offense ITC ). Apart from that I don't see him as being more suspicious than anyone else. If I had to vote between the two of them I'd probably choose Saldana. |
03-14-2007, 09:49 AM | #372 |
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Alan, do you think its possible that Narc is the merc?
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03-14-2007, 09:53 AM | #373 |
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I don't honestly have any clue. Without anything other than my hypothesis to go on about what the merc actually is and how he fits in, plus who the negotiator is and what side he is on.. I really don't know that I can say fully how the merc would play. My gut instinct is that the merc would play similarly to how a wolf played in the sense of trying to fit in like a normal villager. The only difference is the merc likely would have less of an agenda to push than a wolf would. If I had to rely on my gut instinct here, I would say its more likely that Narcizo is a wolf than the mercenary. But thats just my guess. |
03-14-2007, 09:53 AM | #374 |
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I see Molly is here. Molly throw something at Lathum to wake him!
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03-14-2007, 09:57 AM | #375 |
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Alan, how do you feel about ITC?
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03-14-2007, 10:10 AM | #376 |
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03-14-2007, 10:39 AM | #377 |
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our dog had me up unti 5:00 AM because of thunderstorms. Results coming.
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03-14-2007, 10:47 AM | #378 |
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You all gather again in the mess hall for breakfast and realize another one of you is missing. Narciczo has failed to turn up for breakfast, givin his appetite thatis unlike him! You rush to his room to discover him in bed with his face blown off. You wrap his body in a sheet and prepare to bury him out back. Narcizo was an ordinary CIA agent. Day 3 has begun, deadline 9:00 PM EST Last edited by Lathum : 03-16-2007 at 10:21 AM. |
03-14-2007, 10:53 AM | #379 |
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again, sorry about the delay. Our dog is an 85 pound golden retriever that turns into a lap dog and the worlds biggest pussy during thunderstorms.
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03-14-2007, 10:55 AM | #380 |
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Yo, I had a visitor. Let me look at what the roles were and I'll give you what I think happened.
Mind you, I'm having a problem with my computer (noted in GD, if you can help, please do), so I may not be the most helpful person today.
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03-14-2007, 10:56 AM | #381 |
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hmmmm
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03-14-2007, 10:58 AM | #382 |
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Someone else just entered my trust circle, but I'm not sure I'm at liberty to say...seeing as the negotiator is the only one able to do what I think happened.
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03-14-2007, 10:58 AM | #383 |
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03-14-2007, 11:03 AM | #384 |
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Good luck to you. You're going to need it.
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03-14-2007, 11:09 AM | #385 |
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I believe Barkeep hasn't made a single post in this thread.
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03-14-2007, 11:13 AM | #386 |
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Narzico Was on to AE
so for now ill vote VOTE AE |
03-14-2007, 11:14 AM | #387 |
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heh
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03-14-2007, 11:17 AM | #388 |
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Are you kidding
vote Im The Crew |
03-14-2007, 11:18 AM | #389 | |
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Well, when would you use it then? He found Cronin suspicious enough for a first day vote, he was one of the top two vote getters -- I have no problem with using that to see one way or the other in that case.
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03-14-2007, 11:19 AM | #390 |
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I like simple solutions. Who was Narcizo most suspicious of? Cronin. So it seems like I'll cast my vote that way.
Vote Cronin |
03-14-2007, 11:23 AM | #391 |
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UNVOTE AE
VOTE CRONIN got the two mixed up |
03-14-2007, 11:24 AM | #392 |
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I don't know that I agree with Alan on the Jack Armstrong reference -- I think that was just flavor as Jack Armstrong was the All-American Boy back in old radio days. I had assumed that's what Saldana meant, but I guess it could signal something, but it doesn't sound like a mercenary sort of thing for sure.
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03-14-2007, 11:49 AM | #393 |
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unvote ITC
vote Saldana I'm not going to object too much to people voting for me, since as I told Narc, when I come up good ae and Alan should more or less be cleared as well. I'm not going to vote for myself, but I'll take one for the team. |
03-14-2007, 12:03 PM | #394 |
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Good thing I have popcorn.
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03-14-2007, 12:09 PM | #395 |
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Vote barkeep
I voted for Dodgerchick earlier and think Barkeep just now popping in and first thing he says is the "frame up" vote on cronin just feels off to me. |
03-14-2007, 12:13 PM | #396 |
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Vote Barkeep.
Me too.
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03-14-2007, 12:16 PM | #397 |
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I think DC/BK is likely good, but I'll move my vote to survive. It is notable that the two players I trust the most are voting for BK.
I'm most suspicious of ITC and saldana right now. |
03-14-2007, 12:20 PM | #398 |
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By my vote, you can tell barkeep wasn't the one who came rapping at my chamber door.
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03-14-2007, 12:33 PM | #399 | |
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Ardent, I'm not sure if I want a discussion yet on who that player was, but I'm more interested in a discussion on what do we think the negotiator does and do we think its on our team. I have had a bit of a problem trying to figure out how the mercenary and the negotiator play into the whole scheme of thing. At best I think the mercenary is neutral, possibly convertable to good but more likely I think its someone we have to treat as not in our own interest. Now the negotiator I am a little more fuzzy on. They deal with the mercenary, and it does not give any hint to what their role might lean to. It also says the negotiator can offer the merc a contract... A contract to do what exactly? I guess I am hesitant to just put blind trust in the negotiator without knowing if they are even on our side. I don't understand how the role functions and they are tied to someone I don't believe is on our side. You seem to feel they are good though. Can you elaborate why? |
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03-14-2007, 12:38 PM | #400 | |
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It felt off to me, but it's hard to reconcile DC seemingly "giving up" on day 1 with a spy role. Unless her week was so busy she didn't feel like she could do a good job with such a role and it freaked her out a little, which seems possible. |
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