WW - Nightmare Before Christmas (Game Over - Wolves Win!!!)

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by Raiders Army

Gotta get ready for work, but why would the wolves hit Darth? Wouldn't it seem as if he'd at least be a good candidate for today? Did they know he was the bodyguard?

I touched on it last night, but I think the wolves hit Darth and Pass to keep as large a suspect pool intact of D1 Sal/ DT voters.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by Lathum

So the following people have voted for a known villager twice

Saldana
Martin D
Chief Rum
Lathum
theJuggler
CoffeeWarlord
RA-no D1 vote

So that leaves

Danny
The Jackal
Autumn

I'm leaving DT out of this because he is a know villager.

OK, so going off this list

Saldana-Casts first stone on DT D1, D2 switches off Darth and onto PF, both known villagers. Don't really see a point in a wolf doing this since either way they get a villager lynched.

Martin D-D1 casts an early second vote for DT, D2 casts 3rd vote for PF, putting him 2 votes ahead of RA and breaking a tie with DV, who at the time Could it be a ploy to protect RA and set up an early DV/ PF showdown?

Chief Rum-D1 CR puts out a "self preservation" vote even though there were only 4 total votes cast but he had to leave for the day. He pushed DT up by 2 at that point over PF, both villagers. Don't see a wolf pulling that move early D1. D2 votes DV creating a tie with PF and DV, both villagers. This move looks bad considering both are villagers, any way you slice it you can spin that move to look bad. Leaning towards trusting CR for now

Lathum- LAte vote on DT D1, late vote on PF D2. Could be wolfy based on the late votes.

theJuggler-Votes DT late D1 putting it pretty much out of reach using the argumenthe didn't want a tie. D2 unvotes PAss and votes PF, putting more distance between PF and DV. Don't see a wolf making this move, really no point there since he knows as a wolf they both are villagers and it makes him look bad.

CoffeeWarlord-D1 unvotes Saldana and votes PF, kind of a strange move, especially since we know PF is now a villager and Sal and CW are both unknowns. Could the D1 Sal vote be to attempt to buy trust? D2 early jump on PF and leaves it there. Something doesn't sit right with me about him. It also seems like he was trying to play the helpful villager early.

RA-no D1 vote-D2 late vote on PF doesn't give us much to go with. The connection that interests me is a potential one between him and MartinD

So that is all the people with votes on known villagers both days.

The others

Danny- D1 casts vote for Saldana, making him the 4th candidate. Claims he isn't a fan of voting DT because he has 3 votes already. Also doesn't want to vote CR or PF, no idea why not. Instead he goes Saldana. Now we know PF and DT are both villagers, could he possible have been protecting CR? Or was he bringing in Sal, confident he likely doesn't get lynched but can buy trust down the road? D2 he goes Saldana and sticks with it despite there being no traction. Not sure if he came back to the thread prior to deadline. all in all not looking like great moves from Danny.

The Jackal- Late vote on Sal D1 bringing us closer to a tie, a very bad thing. If Sal and Jackal are both wolves this is actually a brilliant move for Jackal. A tie ensures Sal isn't lynched, and eithre PF or CR are. A DT lynch and Jackals vote is completely justifiable, a Sal lynch would require a come from behing and would make Jackal very trusted. D2 votes DV, claiming he doesn't want to nail PF, and brings DV a notch closer. At that time RA, Pass and Sal also had votes. Something about him doesn't seem right to me.


Autumn- D1 vote on an unknown Sal after unvoting DV. I don't see this as a wolf play, why switch your vote from a known villager when you could easily leave it buried there. D2 casts an early vote for PF, a known villager and leaves it there. Nothing to fishy here.

[Lathum]

Going off my analysis the people who look worst are JAckal, CW, Danny, and MartinD.

Now of that group they were all on eithe DT or Sal D1 except CW. I have to wonder if the wolves would leave him on an island like that or if all the wolves were on DT/Sal D1.

For now I am tossing CW out.

Based on my analysis I am gpoing to

VOTE JACKAL

[Lathum]

Got awfully quiet in here.

[Autumn]

Originally Posted by Danny

I fell asleep. That said, while my vote ended up a throw away, Saldana was a better candidate than either Darth or Packer.

I don't really mean just that. I mean two oddball votes, with little reasoning on candidates who aren't in the mix. No commentary or analysis. It just doesn't seem like Danny this game. Makes me want to either vote Danny or vote Saldana.

[Autumn]

Thanks for the analysis, Lathum, it's helpful. I do disagree with a few of your interpretations, but I don't have time to go through it all right now. I'll try to get back to it this morning.

[The Jackal]

Originally Posted by Lathum

Got awfully quiet in here.

Don't be jealous of captain mike

[The Jackal]

I'm tempted to return the vote to Lathum for the richards hate and since he admitted in his own recap that his votes don't look great. I'd be alright with that but I'm going to go off someone who isn't striking me right (like Lathum did with me, I guess), and vote:

MartinD

His votes are somewhat hidden but both pushed villagers further into the lynch lead (granted we don't know where any wolves were in relation when he voted).

[Coffee Warlord]

Not sure how much time I'm going to have today - fun with the car. JUST got into the office finally, but I have some thoughts I want to share (and a vote candidate) soon.

[saldana]

nicely put lathum

i am strongly leaning towards Danny today...his play just seems way off to me right now, but i want to see what CW has to say before i take either that, or any other action.

[Danny]

Originally Posted by saldana

nicely put lathum

i am strongly leaning towards Danny today...his play just seems way off to me right now, but i want to see what CW has to say before i take either that, or any other action.

I think you were the best vote day 1 and day 2 based on what I saw. I stand by that.

[Coffee Warlord]

Originally Posted by Martin, post 226

The wolves wouldn't have known that DT was Jack - in their eyes, he would have been just another villager (with a small chance of being Jack).

I, among others, pointed this out like a page before.

saldana would be an obvious candidate for today's vote, but I'm not sure what we gain with a lynch here (as opposed to lynching A. N. Other) - don't think that The Jackal's late vote would give any indication of wolfishness (as it made things closer, but was far enough out from deadline for changes to happen). DT's vote was attempted self-preservation, and we've been told that he's now a villager, so no value in looking in that direction at this point.

Me and Pass (primarily) discussed the Saldana vote earlier in the day, and a few others chimed in, pretty much stating everything that's been covered here.

The votes for the 'other' candidates all came fairly early (all before post 100) - don't know who was around and when (particularly as I'm not going to be online from at least 4 hours before deadline!) - don't know if this is particularly meaningful, as the votes hadn't coalesced by that point.

Wordy, ultimately meaningless paragraph.

CR's vote for DT (third vote when no-one else had more than 1) looks a little strange to me - it was a case of needing to vote early, though, and I've been in that position plenty of times in the past, and those votes can look a bit strange by the time the deadline comes round.

I don't have any major suspicions about anyone at this point - will have look at recent posts, and post a vote shortly.

So after several paragraphs of regurgitating stuff we've already covered, he picks out someone, and then says the standard issue 'but I don't have any major suspicions'.

Let's analyze this. This entire post is a whole lotta fluff, and almost a complete regurgitation of stuff covered that same day by other people. He's offered little, if any new insight, but is trying to look helpful...and then casts a fairly damning vote on Packers (who already had 2 votes), now a known villager.

This screams wolf. Martin has been fairly quiet, and then chimes in with a moderately long, ultimately lacking post, followed by a vote on a (now) known villager who already had some votes on him.

This piqued my interest yesterday, but I elected to not mention anything about it, since 1) we were pretty well set on candidates already yesterday, and 2) I was moderately nervous I'd get night-killed if I tried to bring it up (under the assumption we wouldn't be able to move enough votes). So I waited till today.

Thus.

Vote MartinD

[The Jackal]

My previous post was poorly executed:

VOTE MARTIND

[Autumn]

here's my list right now

Suspiciousness
Lathum - two late pile-on votes with no reasoning
Coffee Warlord - his votes seem to be "followers", typical wolf move
Danny - very strange votes, no reasoning is unlike Danny
Saldana - gets ball rolling on DT for "joke" reason, has struck me in thread with a vibe, Danny is sure about him
Jackal - tried to bring second candidate in both nights, can be a good way to hide as a wolf
Martin - put 2nd and and 3rd votes on dead villagers, good place for a wolf to vote.
chief - midday votes, nice and safe spot for a wolf

Trust
daddy torgo

No clues
Juggler - two late safe votes, probably what I would do new to the forum
raider - obviously no clues here

These are just why I could be suspicious of each person, with typical werewolf paranoia.

So far we have votes on Martin and Jackal. Martin is somewhere I could go with a vote, but frankly CofeeWarlord's post above made me think twice about it, it seemed a bit much. I'm not sure what that's about. Jackal could be hiding with his votes, but he's not at the top of my list - I usually like to make sure we have a second viable candidate as well, that seems as much a village move as a wolf one.

I have my suspicions about Saldana, and voted him day one. Danny's sureness about him has me wanting to bark up that tree again.

VOTE SALDANA

[Lathum]

Autumn, I'll just throw out there again my reason for late votes was I was traveling. I agree, the people I voted for were poor choices, but in my defense almost all of us have voted all villager both days.

I will also say in Sals defense voting someone for a joke reason D1 is in line with his personality.

[Autumn]

I agree, Saldana does that usually - but that gives him a great reason to do it as a wolf. Basically everyone in the game has a good excuse for their votes, it seems like to me. Looking back over my list, Danny is the only one who doesn't have what I would call "safe" votes. That makes this hard.

[thejuggler3]

Busy with work today. Will be more active around 5-ish and review what's going on to vote.

[Autumn]

Must be the case all around. Well I'm here if anyone wants to bounce ideas.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by Autumn

Must be the case all around. Well I'm here if anyone wants to bounce ideas.

Well you heard my takes on stuff. I was hoping for more discussion today as well since I has some free time but will likely be out for the night soon.

[DaddyTorgo]

Originally Posted by thejuggler3

Busy with work today. Will be more active around 5-ish and review what's going on to vote.

This - me too. Just got into the office like an hour ago actually, I've been so busy.

[MartinD]

So it looks like I've been put forward as a candidate for the lynch vote today - I don't have a problem with that, but lynching me is not going to help the village win this game.

The one part of my 'long' post from yesterday that CW hasn't quoted is the part where I say that I'm 'thinking out loud' - advance warning that I'm not trying for deep, well thought out analysis, but just letting stuff flow from brain to keyboard. I was using this as a way of catching up with the posts that had been made since I had last checked the thread just after deadline, so it's not really surprising that I'm repeating stuff that's been covered by other people.

I'm never going to be a prolific poster - it's not in my nature to be outgoing in that way (as can be seen from my relatively low post counts in previous games that I've played in), I have limited time to participate in this game (basically a quick catch-up in the wee small hours US time, and a bit of time in the evening), and I'm never going to be around at deadline unless insomnia bites. When I do get a bit of time to have a decent read through posts and put some thoughts together (as I had yesterday), I'll make the occasional long post - other than that, it's mostly going to be short and to the point.

My votes don't look good, which is fair enough - I've been part of pushing two players who ended up not being wolves to the forefront, and contributed to them coming out on top in the lynch votes. In my defence, remember that I need to get my votes in early (because of the time difference) and that there's been very little in the way of useful information out there when I've had to make my decision. (A thought - how many times has the village voted for someone based on a poor voting history, only to find out that they've lynched a villager who got unlucky with the guesswork that's inevitably required for early votes? It's normally pretty easy for wolves to make sure that they have nice clean voting histories if they play things right...)

Anyway, back to today's vote. I'm obviously going to have use my vote for self-defensive purposes, but a few thoughts on what has happened today, and how I see things:

- I know that I'm a villager, and the wolves know that I'm a villager, so I suspect that at least one of the players who has voted for me is a wolf.
- I don't know CW's style of play, but his post did strike me as a bit of overkill - the same points could have been made a lot more succinctly (and would probably have been more effective in a shorter post (and yes, I do see the funny side of saying that in a post like this!)) It does come across to me as trying too hard to make the most of what's there to make me look as bad as possible - trying to draw attention away from his own possible wolfishness?
- I'm less inclined to believe that The Jackal is a wolf at this point - his lateish Day 1 vote doesn't give any indication one way or the other, and he put the first vote on me (so couldn't be sure if anyone would follow). (It may be worth looking in this direction if CW ends up being a wolf, though.)
- I drew attention to CR's Day 1 vote, as it looked a bit strange at the time, but understandable at the same time. I have no reason to distrust CR at this time.

While I think that CW is a more likely wolf, I have to go with the guy with a vote at this point.

VOTE THE JACKAL

I should be able to check up on what's going on in a couple of hours, and may change this vote, depending on what has happened.

[Danny]

Not to distract from what looks like candidates shaping up, but I provided reasoning for my day 1 and day 2 Saldana vote.

On day 1, DT threw out Saldana VERY early and had his vote on him for a long time. No one ever put a second vote there. While not a certainty, it seems like there is a solid chance a wolf puts a second vote on Saldana at some point through all of that time he had 1 vote if Saldana was a villager.

This to me, was more to go on than for anyone else on day 1. I also clearly posted that I read PackerFanatic's eagerness as how he typically plays as a villager and not a wolf (where he plays much more restrained) and thus why I was not going to vote him day 1 (or day 2 for that matter). And I definitely was not going to put a vote on DT since he was already looking like a runaway candidate and that's rarely a good thing.

On day 2, Saldana was the other leading vote getter from day 1 against DT who as far as the wolves knew, was a villager. Lynching him would have told us a lot of about day 1, and as I said, I did not feel Packer was a strong day 1 candidate. I also did not read Darth as a wolf (who I have been very accurate reading thus far).

Unfortunately I fell asleep yesterday before getting to say or provide much to the group.

[Danny]

And my post is not meant to sound like I can read everyone. There are players who I generally am very good at reading and other who I am not (Chief Rum, I am looking at you lol)

[Autumn]

Back for a bit - looks like not much has gone on.

I get the same vibe, Martin, from Coffee's post - it seems a bit strident. Obviously you were just giving your thoughts, no reason for him to be indignant. The only reason I can see however for a wolf CW to go out so hard though is if he was worried about the vote, which would mean Jackal being a wolf. So I guess I agree with you that those two seem tied together at this point.

I can vouch that Martin is playing his typical game, though I hate when we have to put someone on the block to get analysis from them. Still, we don't have much to go on and we know someone is hiding behind their votes so far. Could be Martin, could be any of you.

[EagleFan]

As of post 372:

The Jackal 2 - Lathum (353), MartinD (371)
MartinD 2 - The Jackal (358), Coffee Warlord (362)
Chief Rum 1 - Raiders Army (345)
saldana 1 - Autumn (364)

[The Jackal]

I've got some xmas shopping to do tonight, not sure what time I'll get back, but think I'll just leave my vote where it is for now and hope for the best. Will try and check in pre-deadline to see what's going on.

[Danny]

Oh and
vote Saldana

I see little reason to change my vote at this point without anyone else emerging as a great candidate. I realize my status will likely be largely tied to how Saldana turns out.

[thejuggler3]

Note: For some reason, a much of HTML junk came up when i first sent this post, so I removed it in an edit. Apologies.

Wow, you’d think working from home I wouldn’t be as busy. Finally done with my work, so now to the important stuff. Not a lot of talk this afternoon it seems.

Okay, giving my thoughts for now. Feel free to correct me if I missed something. Since almost everybody we’ve went after up until now (well, at least I’ve been suspicious of) has been a villager (with the exception of sal who is unknown), it makes it harder to analyze votes. Sucks, but we have to use what we have.

First, I keep looking at the DT, Packers voting group. It’s likely that at least one is a wolf, unless the wolves are being very, very cagy. The people of this block that voted together are saldana, Lathum, MartinD, and me (have to be fair). Lathum and MartinD piled on the last two days. Slight suspicion there, but nothing really stands out in when or how they voted to make me deeply suspicious. That leaves saldana. Looking over his posts, I still have a bit of suspicion, but nothing that really stands out. If sal is a wolf, that makes Coffee look bad. If not, my suspicion of Danny goes way up. Voting sal answers a lot of questions for me, but I just can’t do it right now. Until I see more to push me on sal, voting him to answer questions seems like a bad idea. I’m pretty sure one of the three is a wolf, but I can’t accurately pick which one, and I don’t like guessing, especially when we really need to hit a wolf today.

That just leaves two people in my mind: Jackal (his voting seems off to me) or Coffee (sorry, you just always seem suspicious to me, and several of your posts just don’t give me the warm fuzzies). It seems like a lot of people are suspicious of both, and I think one or both are wolves.

So there you have it from me. Right now Martin, sal, and Jackal are out there. I’m going to throw Coffee out there. A lot of people seem suspicious of him, and I’m not sure why they are not voting for him, so I’ll let them consider it. If it doesn’t gain traction, I will probably switch later tonight. Sorry, Coffee. Thanks for introducing me to the game, hahaha.

Vote CoffeeWarlord

[MartinD]

Quick in-and-out, as I should be sleeping by now...

The only reason that I didn't vote for CW earlier is that no-one else had voted for him. Now that juggler has opened that up with his vote, I'm going to switch.

UNVOTE THE JACKAL
VOTE COFFEE WARLORD

[saldana]

vote danny

i just dont see what i have come to consider as your normal play in this game...you are chasing where there is no discernible scent, which means you've got to have an enhanced sense of smell in my book.

[saldana]

on second thought, as much as i still dont agree with his play, i dont think danny would stick his neck out this far if he knew he would be putting it in a noose...if hes a wolf, that means he knows i am a villager, and knows when i get lynched clean, he goes down next.

unvote danny
vote jackal

[EagleFan]

As of post 381:

The Jackal 2 - Lathum (353), saldana (381)
MartinD 2 - The Jackal (358), Coffee Warlord (362)
saldana 2 - Autumn (364), Danny (377)
Coffee Warlord 2 - thejuggler3 (378), MartinD (379)
Chief Rum 1 - Raiders Army (345)

[Raiders Army]

Just got home. Catching up.

[Raiders Army]

Hrm. I'll break the tie.

UNVOTE CHIEF RUM
VOTE SALDANA

[Raiders Army]

I think CR never addressed any of the suspicion of him within the thread and he's the best way to go. Lathum's analysis strikes me wrong in a few places as far as meta-gaming it at a point when arguably there have been enough games played that any strategy would be valid.

[EagleFan]

As of post 385:

saldana 3 - Autumn (364), Danny (377), Raiders Army (384)
The Jackal 2 - Lathum (353), saldana (381)
MartinD 2 - The Jackal (358), Coffee Warlord (362)
Coffee Warlord 2 - thejuggler3 (378), MartinD (379)

[Raiders Army]

Okay, with no response in a while I'm out for the night here in a bit. I'll check some other websites, but I'll be out until after the deadline in a few.

[Chief Rum]

Well, I didn't really see anything that needed to be responded to. Most descriptions of the case against me have been because I had to vote early against DT, and I think that's pretty self-explanatory. I can't react to how the vote goes if I'm not here, of course.

I don't get wolf vibes off of Saldana or CW, actually. CW was a bit over the top with his Martin accusation, but since when does a wolf, without provocation, say too much? That's rare.

Between Martin and The Jackal, it comes down to whether I put more faith in one set of voters or the other, since I don't know that we have enough information to really build a case against either one. The Jackal is a vote target and CW has written a curiously pointed post, leading me to wonder how much basis they have for votes on MartinD. Meanwhile, Lathum wrote a well-considered analysis of the situation and saldana comes off very villager-ish to me right now. So I will side with Lathum and saldana, and vote for The Jackal.

As with Monday, I will be stepping out for the rest of the evening, due to my second job, so good luck to the village.

VOTE THE JACKAL

[Raiders Army]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

This might be what you're hitting on just now, CW, but I'll follow up with my own logic here.

DT was the first runaway candidate, and then there was a run on saldana. Now, not knowing any allegiances, this has the appearance of wolves fueling a run on saldana in order to save DT (putting aside for the moment that such an obvious move would actually put a pretty big bullseye on the sal voters).

As we now know, though, DT was not a wolf, so the wolves would have had no reason to try to save DT. Therefore, the run on sal to save DT was not wolf-inspired, but likely your run of the mill villagers making it a two horse race vote. Which, really, tells us nothing much about the voters or about sal's allegiance, which is about as likely now to be wolf or villager as it was at the start of the game.

In other words, back to square one--we can still lynch sal, but I don't think it provides us with any more information than we get from lynching some other random player.

Meh. This is what I was talking about. I know I hit Lathum for meta-gaming, and I'm a hypocrite, but this sounds like CR is trying to save saldana. Thus my vote for sal.

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

Heading out to our Christmas party, and in case I forget to pop back in here in the evening, I'll put in a placeholder vote.

VOTE RAIDERS ARMY

Not seeing anything wrong with some push on Chief Rum, but I'd rather get rid of someone who's not playing, so that the people who are playing can hang around longer.

The funny thing about this post is that Pass says he wouldn't mind a push against CR, but he votes for me. No wolf would want a vanilla villager out of the game. This is what pinged me on CR.

[Raiders Army]

I dunno. CR leaves us with a tie. That isn't helpful at all. All this adds up to my vote on sal.

[Raiders Army]

Okay. Not much discussion at all. Maybe Lathum is on the level after all. Anyhow, I'm going to roll out. I hope someone breaks the tie.

[Autumn]

I'm back, caught up. My vote history is shot at this point and I have to get some work done. This vote is kind of a mess, but about what I would expect - we don't have any solid leads. Luckily I think it's a vote that will tell us something useful looking back at it.

I don't think I'll move from Saldana at this point. But if CW is a wolf I think Jackal is too, so I think having both of those in the mix should prove interesting. I should be around regularly until deadline.

[Danny]

I know this much, either every vote I have made has been for a wolf, or every vote I have made has been for a villager

[Danny]

There won't be a tie, I'll be around until deadline and am considering a switch to Jackal. I'll switch for sure if it's still a tie.

[Danny]

Unvote Saldana
Vote Jackal

[Danny]

This may cause suspicion on me, but I have a gut feeling from rereading some things throughout the thread.

[Autumn]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

Between Martin and The Jackal, it comes down to whether I put more faith in one set of voters or the other, since I don't know that we have enough information to really build a case against either one.

This is what I'm down to as well, Chief, but I come to different conclusions. You fail to mention that Saldana is also a vote target, and that he cast his vote without any explanation of why he chose Jackal out of all the other targets. And you yourself just discounted half of the candidates in order to pick from those two. I feel more comfortable voting with Danny and RA than any of the other lumps of voters, myself.

[Autumn]

Heh, well look what happened while I was writing ;-)

[Autumn]

Danny, I was voting largely on how sure you seemed about Saldana. Do you feel as sure about Jackal, or more so?

[thejuggler3]

No worries on ties.

I think Jackal is more suspicious than sal, so if need be, I'll switch over to break any ties.

I'm still more suspicious of Coffee, but Jackal is my #2 if it comes down to it.

Martin and Sal are much lower on my suspicion scale (though neither is at zero).