FOFC GroupThink 2023: We take over the Detroit Lions

[thesloppy]

Totally agree that I expected them to address the DL more. I could see LaPorta also playing and producing a lot immediately, that TE room is relatively empty. They talk like they really value Gibbs as a receiving threat & potentially we could see him pick up some additonal snaps outside of RB.

[GrantDawg]

I like Brian Branch. I really expected the Falcons to take him.

[Solecismic]

Originally Posted by thesloppy

Totally agree that I expected them to address the DL more. I could see LaPorta also playing and producing a lot immediately, that TE room is relatively empty. They talk like they really value Gibbs as a receiving threat & potentially we could see him pick up some additonal snaps outside of RB.

So they added a running back who won't do much in the way of power running. And a tight end who is basically just a slightly larger and slightly slower wide receiver, not much of a plus for the running game. Both skilled players, but really just adding options for Goff when he gets the ball out quickly enough.

It sounds like they're going to let opponents get away with not worrying much about getting overpowered. Offenses can work like this, but you need your quarterback to make great decisions quickly.

[Honolulu_Blue]

I just can’t get that Carolina game out of my mind when it comes to the defense.

[Bobble]

Bo77, the Motor City Football guy, wrote up the Lions picks on reddit here:Bo77 Rounds 1-2

and here: Bo77 Rounds 3-7

[Honolulu_Blue]

In terms of UDFAs, I really like the signing of Minnesota RB Mohamed Ibrahim. He’s a bowling ball of a player and always falls forward. He could be a really good goal line/short yardage back, which given the loss Jamaal Williams and Campbell’s love of going for it on 4th down could fill a need.

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by Honolulu_Blue

In terms of UDFAs, I really like the signing of Minnesota RB Mohamed Ibrahim. He’s a bowling ball of a player and always falls forward. He could be a really good goal line/short yardage back, which given the loss Jamaal Williams and Campbell’s love of going for it on 4th down could fill a need.

Question is, can he stay on the field ( Sidelined by injury for at least one game in four of the past five seasons)

[B & B]

Originally Posted by B & B

Couple things.

Jack Campbell seems like hes already wearing Honolulu Blue.
Want NOTHING to do with QB Richardson.

Id like Det to trade down from 6 to 9 with Carolina giving us an extra 3rd rounder (dont care this year or next) and still get one of the top CBs. Panthers can take that QB risk.

Use that 3rd or 4th rounder to take Hooker as a developmental qb

This was from March 3rd.

Aged like wine. If the brass in Detroit want to contact me, Im available

[QuikSand]

So, misgivings aside… Jack Campbell fir DROY seems solid, yea? Feels like 100 tackles and voters like tackles…

[albionmoonlight]

I also think that the media wants to jump on the Detroit bandwagon, which helps.

And there does not appear to be a Von Miller/Myles Garrett type this draft who is going to get 10+ sacks as a rookie, which opens the door to Campbell and others.

The only issue is that Detroit already has a good ILB (Rodriguez), who might take tackles away from Campbell.

[QuikSand]

MGM is paying +1800 on it, I'm in for enough to follow along.

[albionmoonlight]

What's the list for OROY and DROY (if it is easy to cut and paste)?

Having put all of that mental energy into the draft, I feel like I want to get something out of it :-)

[Honolulu_Blue]

It's been a few weeks now since the Draft and the dust has settled...

The day or so before the draft, I started to come down with something. I was pretty congested, not feeling great, but not terrible either. The Friday night of the second and third rounds that took a turn and I came down with a fever. That soon became a full on viral infection and that turned into a bacterial infection with a full week of massive headaches and congestion. This was only the second time I've been sick in over five years.

I mention that, because it feels like a physical manifestation of the Lions post-draft vibes. No team seemed to be riding higher than the Lions coming into the draft. They had that great run at the end of last year, had a very solid free agency period, they retained Ben Johnson and Aaron Glenn, and had the promise of a healthy Jameson Williams (more of this later) for the season - a huge potential boost for the offense. Those vibes have taken quite the turn.

It really started with the announcement of the Jameson Williams six game suspension. That led to criticism of his maturity level, stuff he posted to social media and doubts about his long term future began (I think unfairly) to manifest. There was even his desire to get the #1 jersey after Okudah left that was denied, because someone else took it. The vibes around Jameson Williams started to sour.

Then, as we all know, there was the draft - particularly the first round - where the Lions stunned everyone by using their big time draft capital to take Gibbs, a running back, and Jack Campell, an off-ball linebacker, with their top two picks. Both players were seen not only as reaches, but as reaches at non-premium positions. Both NFL Twitter/Hipsters and old school NFL folks largely ripped the Lions for this.

The criticism of the Lions draft seemed to wane a bit after rounds 2 and 3, mainly because they drafted Brian Branch in the middle of the second round.

The criticism now is that the Lions don't know how to properly team build. They made moves that could set them up for 2023, but really don't put them in a great position for long term success. They are talking about extending Jared Goff, who NFL Twitter/Hipsters generally hate and think is the poster boy for a mediocre old-school, stationary NFL QB.

There is the belief that the Lions should have taken their draft capital this year and parlayed that into a high-end QB of the future, because they won't likely be drafting this high again. I am not sure about that. I think it's safe to say that they had no shot at getting Bryce Young, which means they would have had to trade up to 2 or 3 overall to get either Stroud (who seems like a younger, slightly more athletic Goff) or Richardson. I don't think drafting Levis would have been the big swing/improvement people wanted and the Lions managed to get the consensus 4th best QB (Hooker) in the 3rd round. So, I really think this comes down to the Lions not moving up for Richardson.

As exciting and interesting as Richardson is and as a high a ceiling he appears to have, I am just not sure I agree with the criticism here. It would have cost them a lot, wouldn't have really helped the team at all this year, and may have blown up in their face. Then again, it's possible that drafting him would have given this franchise juice the likes of which it hasn't had in the modern era and the notion that the Lions would have given up 6 and 18 (or one of their second rounders) for Richardson a slam dunk.

The Lions are, also, getting heavily criticized for dumping Swift and Williams for Montgomery and Gibbs. Many see this as a lateral move, at best, on the field and a more expensive option off it. I know the Lions see it very differently. They feel like Williams left a ton of yards on the field and Swift did as well. Also, Swift was always hurt.

It will be really interesting to see how this all shakes out. Did Holmes make the right call in drafting Gibbs and Campbell as high as he did? Is LaPorta (who was the unanimous star of the Lions rookie mini-camp last weekend) a much better talent than Mayer and Musgrave? Is Brodic Martn another one of Holmes' gems like James Houston and Malcolm Rodriguez?

The vibes for the Lions aren't great right now. I know it was has nothing to do with it, but when you add in the Wings not moving up in the draft lottery and the Pistons falling to 5th overall, the overall off-season Detroit sports vibes pretty much suck.

I've been in a low-grade panic mode since the first round.

Though, luckily I finally got antibiotics about 10 days ago for my sinus infection and feel great! So, maybe things will turn around.

[Bobble]

Well articulated, HB. The Williams "incident" seemed like a body-blow to the fanbase. He was a supposed to be a major point of excitement. Then, it was a bit of a double-down on the downers when the follow-on stories around Williams didn't rebound to the positive.

The draft was a polar opposite to last year. Rather than grabbing the media darlings and being lauded, they grab unexpected picks and get ridiculed. It's never a fun feeling when it has to be explained to you why these are actually good picks. I am a little comforted that the consensus seems to be that they were good players, just taken "too early" as if any of the pundits knows what all 32 team's draft boards look like.

Anyway, can't wait to learn that Dan and Brad really ARE the smartest guys in the room and Lions have the first class of 6 co-rookies of the year.

[QuikSand]

Hopkins, let's do this

[Solecismic]

At least he's not a smaller speed guy, in which case I'd laugh at the thought, but a 30-year old receiver coming off a performance-drug suspension?

There's good reason no one wanted the contract. He'll catch on somewhere on a one-year or two-year with obvious cap-switch. However...

Seems like a gamble.

[albionmoonlight]

He seems like a guy who wants to be the undisputed Alpha WR where he goes. I wonder if he'd want to go to a place where he'd have to at least share that with St. Brown.

That said, you don't hire Dan Campbell for Xs and Os. You hire him because he should be able to keep his players focused and eliminate petty locker room BS like that.

[Jops]

Interesting point on the RB's, I never really rated swift. In FoF terms he'd be like high elusiveness low hole rec, fine as a receiving back, but eh, it's a lot of money for essentially a Danny Woodhead (but not as good)

[albionmoonlight]

Report: NFL Films reached out to the #Lions to do 'Hard Knocks' for the second consecutive season, per @detroitnews

The NFL is apparently struggling to find a team willing to do Hard Knocks this season.

They can force the #Jets, #Saints, #Commanders or #Bears to do it but… pic.twitter.com/bjRUHEElZO

— Dov Kleiman (@NFL_DovKleiman) June 15, 2023

Do it!

[Honolulu_Blue]

Cowards!

They know they can't live up to last season, so they're ducking their responsibility. Shameful.

[Honolulu_Blue]

The more I think about the Jahmyr Gibbs pick, the worse it gets. He seems like a great player and good guy and could really help the Lions, but it's such terrible value.

Gibbs will have to perform like an elite running back from go to justify the draft capital spent on him and his salary cap space. Even if he does play at that level, it's very unlikely he'll be worth the money needed to re-sign him to a second contract. (See, e.g., Saquon Barkley, Zeke Elliot, Dalvin Cook).

How many teams in the last 10-15 years have spent a first round pick on a running back and then have that running back play a key role in leading them to a Super Bowl?

[GrantDawg]

Sonny Micheal. Picked in the first round by New England, and scored the only touchdown in a Super Bowl they won.

Sent from my SM-S916U using Tapatalk

[JPhillips]

My only caveat is that the cap is going to go up a lot over the next few years, so maybe it isn't as big of an issue for this contract length.

[thesloppy]

I don't believe the salary cap is an impedement for most teams in 99% of situations, unless you handle it extremely poorly with the majority of your contracts over multiple years...I think there are contracts that are built with over-inflated years that are never meant to be paid, but that's an entierly different issue. When players with relatively sane contracts are released for supposed salary cap reasons in this day and age I always assume that's just being used as coverage rather than citing the personal reasons. I don't consider any rookie contracts signifcant.

[Honolulu_Blue]

Originally Posted by GrantDawg

Sonny Micheal. Picked in the first round by New England, and scored the only touchdown in a Super Bowl they won.

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If Jahmyr Gibbs scored two tries touchdowns in a Super Bowl the Lions won, I’d be beyond thrilled - I don’t have the words to describe how happy I’d be - but if that doesn’t happy, Sony Michel isn’t a promising career arc to follow.

[GrantDawg]

I think you are over stating how big a pick it was, and how much a salary cap hit he is. A single pick, even a first-rounder, isn't the end of the world. Only a quarterback has enough impact as a single player to be the difference between a Super Bowl or not. Heck, the Rams won a Super Bowl getting rid of all their picks.

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[Bobble]

If Gibbs turns out to be the equivalent weapon to Amon Ra St. Brown or what we expect Jamo to be, wouldn't you want to take him in the first regardless of the rookie contract? Especially compared to drafting someone you thought has a better chance of turning out like, say, (grabbing mid-first round names from 2020 so we see a little bit of trajectory) DT-Javon Kinlaw, DE-K'Lavon Chaisson, CB-C. J. Henderson, CB-Damon Arnette?

[flere-imsaho]

There's an argument to be made that if your goal is regular (i.e. good) starters, then depending on the year, arguably any pick below 3 or 5 (or maybe 8 in stacked years) is a good trade for someone who fits that profile.

[Honolulu_Blue]

Originally Posted by Bobble

If Gibbs turns out to be the equivalent weapon to Amon Ra St. Brown or what we expect Jamo to be, wouldn't you want to take him in the first regardless of the rookie contract? Especially compared to drafting someone you thought has a better chance of turning out like, say, (grabbing mid-first round names from 2020 so we see a little bit of trajectory) DT-Javon Kinlaw, DE-K'Lavon Chaisson, CB-C. J. Henderson, CB-Damon Arnette?

Given the trade that Lions made, I guess you’d have to compare Gibbs and LaPorta to, say, Jalen Carter, Tyree Wilson, or Bijan Robinson.

I really hope it works out!

[Honolulu_Blue]

https://twitter.com/BSMotorCity/stat...711168/photo/1

Barf.

[NobodyHere]

Originally Posted by Honolulu_Blue

https://twitter.com/BSMotorCity/stat...711168/photo/1

Barf.

I wish I could reassure you and tell you that it gets better. But this is the Lions. We can only hope with each new day to be just a little less disappointed.

[Honolulu_Blue]

Wide receiver depth addressed!

We got ourselves Denzel Mims for a conditional 6th rounder and a 7th rounder. A potential reclamation project of a former 2nd rounder or another waste of late round picks for a player who would have just been cut, because he’s not good (see, also, kicker Riley Patterson). Hoping for the former, betting on the latter.

[CrimsonFox]

I think we should add some REAL lions on the field.

[GrantDawg]

Originally Posted by CrimsonFox

I think we should add some REAL lions on the field.

Then Chicago would have to add some real bears. They both would tear apart Green Bay with real packers.

[GrantDawg]

I wonder though if anybody could then beat San Fransico with their undead 49ers.

[QuikSand]

Originally Posted by Honolulu_Blue

Wide receiver depth addressed!

We got ourselves Denzel Mims for a conditional 6th rounder and a 7th rounder. A potential reclamation project of a former 2nd rounder or another waste of late round picks for a player who would have just been cut, because he’s not good (see, also, kicker Riley Patterson). Hoping for the former, betting on the latter.

Subscribed as #hopeful, I liked him a lot in his draft

[albionmoonlight]

I realize that I am probably underrating the value of 5th-7th round picks as special teams bodies, etc.

But I think that NFL teams in general way overrate the value of those picks. Every offseason, you see teams shopping players like Mims (former high pick who didn't work out), and it is like pulling teeth to get a conditional 6th rounder for them.

If I were a GM, I'd almost always be trading those picks for lottery tickets on guys who might just need a change of scenery.

[Bobble]

Originally Posted by albionmoonlight

I realize that I am probably underrating the value of 5th-7th round picks as special teams bodies, etc.

But I think that NFL teams in general way overrate the value of those picks. Every offseason, you see teams shopping players like Mims (former high pick who didn't work out), and it is like pulling teeth to get a conditional 6th rounder for them.

If I were a GM, I'd almost always be trading those picks for lottery tickets on guys who might just need a change of scenery.

I think the value in them late picks is financial. A 6th round pick is locked in for, what?, 4 years at nearly minimum salary? That's great for depth, special teams, or one-dimensional situational players.

[CrimsonFox]

Originally Posted by GrantDawg

Then Chicago would have to add some real bears. They both would tear apart Green Bay with real packers.

Would love to see the Bears and Lions vs the Commanders.

Commander: You there! STOP and surrender!
LION: RAWWWWR! (mauls commander team)

[NobodyHere]

Originally Posted by CrimsonFox

Would love to see the Bears and Lions vs the Commanders.

Commander: You there! STOP and surrender!
LION: RAWWWWR! (mauls commander team)

I would actually watch a game between the Titans and the Giants.

I would avoid watching the Browns at all costs.

[albionmoonlight]

The Saints would be martyred, but they'd make the other team feel guilty for killing them.

[albionmoonlight]

Veteran #Lions DB C.J. Gardner-Johnson went down with a right leg injury Monday & was carted off the field. He was visibly upset and team captains Buggs and Goff made it a point to go comfort him. Hoping for better news than it looked.

— Tim Twentyman (@ttwentyman) July 24, 2023

We all spend so much offseason NFL time thinking and planning and speculating and predicting for all of the teams.

And the league is kinda sorta just an random number injury generator when it comes down to it.

[Honolulu_Blue]

Originally Posted by albionmoonlight

Veteran #Lions DB C.J. Gardner-Johnson went down with a right leg injury Monday & was carted off the field. He was visibly upset and team captains Buggs and Goff made it a point to go comfort him. Hoping for better news than it looked.

— Tim Twentyman (@ttwentyman) July 24, 2023

We all spend so much offseason NFL time thinking and planning and speculating and predicting for all of the teams.

And the league is kinda sorta just a random number injury generator when it comes down to it.

Luckily, it appears not to be serious and the MRI showed no structural injury. Hopefully, that remains the case.

[QuikSand]

Iowa’s new fullback is Hayden Large:

• listed at 6’5, 250 lbs (!!)
• grad transfer from Dordt Univ. (Iowa)
• two years of eligibility left

Again, he’s 6’5, his last name is LARGE, and he looks like this.

A fullback dream. https://t.co/uGiBHSOutr pic.twitter.com/FRcQhwq2YJ

— Ben Stevens (@BenScottStevens) July 26, 2023

This kid cannot get to the Lions soon enough...

[Honolulu_Blue]

Originally Posted by QuikSand

Iowa’s new fullback is Hayden Large:

• listed at 6’5, 250 lbs (!!)
• grad transfer from Dordt Univ. (Iowa)
• two years of eligibility left

Again, he’s 6’5, his last name is LARGE, and he looks like this.

A fullback dream. https://t.co/uGiBHSOutr pic.twitter.com/FRcQhwq2YJ

— Ben Stevens (@BenScottStevens) July 26, 2023

This kid cannot get to the Lions soon enough...

Agreed! He’s the physical manifestation of Dan Campbell football.

[albionmoonlight]

Update: #Lions WR Jameson Williams threw a punch at teammate undrafted rookie CB Starling Thomas at practice, via @AryePulli

Williams reportedly has struggled at practice today with multiple dropped passes.

He let his frustration get the best of him after the Thomas forced an… pic.twitter.com/THyPgPOZRm

— Dov Kleiman (@NFL_DovKleiman) July 31, 2023

Looking more and more like the inevitable trade for a mid-round pick to another team in a season or two with the hope that a "fresh start" can help get him "back on track."

[thesloppy]

Yeah, I desperately want to give Jamo the benefit of the doubt, but he seemed disappointed to have been picked by the Lions on draft day & has seemingly been wrestling with himself ever since. The Lions have had more than their share of delusional young WRs which is probably coloring my judgment, but patience is wearing thin.

[Honolulu_Blue]

The vibes around Jamo have been pretty bad. I just hope it’s way too early and things turn around or that this is just a bunch of surface stuff. It’d be a tough blow for the organization for him not to work out.

[Honolulu_Blue]

Lions are signing Touchdown Teddy Bridgewater!

Hendon Hooker is still hurt and won’t likely be ready this year and Nate Sudfeld must not be cutting it in camp.

I like it.

[thesloppy]

Definitely seems like a good idea. A Goff injury would've put a quick end to whatever dreams this team has.