WW Small Game: The Tudors (Day4 EARLY START! deadline - Friday 5pm ET)

[DaddyTorgo]

we've looked at voting patterns for lax and henry - i think i mentioned it somewhere, and lathum did a nice summary last night right after deadline of D1 and D2 votes.

let me go back and repost it here

[DaddyTorgo]

Day 1 vote count

1 - EagleFan - st.cronin (42)
4 - path12 - EagleFan (50), oliegirl (83), laxjunkie62 (109), Henry (126)
3 - oliegirl - path12 (81), Telle (91), Lathum (127)
2 - Lathum - DaddyTorgo (92), Barkeep (125)

Day 2 vote count

(4) Path - Telle (149), henry (150), eaglefan (165), laxjunkie62 (177)
(5) Eaglefan - path12 (175), st.cronin (184), barkeep (193) DaddyTorgo (264) Lathum (298)

[Telle]

How exactly were you cleared, DT?

[Telle]

Lax, henry, and EagleFan have all voted together both days. Don't know that that tells us much.

[henry296]

No argument that I'm a potential candidate today, but laxjunkies was the only one who voted for path after his reveal. I was just stubborn and by the end of the day my vote was meaningless since we know DT and Lathum were voting EagleFan.

Therefore Vote laxjunkies

[DaddyTorgo]

one thing that rang really weird to me was lax's trying to tie himself to BK.

we can see that on D1 laxjunkie and henry voted together for a known good.

we can see that on D2 they both voted together as well. Note that henry's vote was awfully quick after telle's onto someone we now know was good, whereas laxjunkie came in at the end to make it 4-1 (at the time).

Now I don't think lax+henry = wolf+traitor because as you can see between D1 and D2 although they both voted on Path both days, the order in which they voted was flipped. lax cast the first vote one day, and henry the second, and then the next day henry voted first and then lax. This could conceivably have been coordinated if both were wolves, but if one is a wolf and one is a traitor they wouldn't necessarily be able to coordinate that. Now there's no saying that the traitor wouldn't have voted along with the wolf anyways, without coordination, but the problem when looking at them both then becomes which one is the traitor as they both took a turn laying the first vote.

maybe that is useless hypothesizing because occam's razor just says that they could have done it totally without coordination and this is meaningless, but i have the time at work right now so i wanted to get all my thoughts out there.

interested to hear from both lax+henry who they think the likely wolf is - if they want to point the blame at telle and her early vote on path, or at lathum or me.

[DaddyTorgo]

Originally Posted by Telle

How exactly were you cleared, DT?

because it's my analysis and i know i'm 100% good

[Lathum]

I am wondering if it is time for the seer to step forward?

With 6 of us left BK is cleared so that leaves 5, the seer coming forward leaves 4 and depending on who has been scanned that could leave 2-3 unknowns.

[DaddyTorgo]

without the bodyguard i think unless the seer has the last wolf or is in peril of being caught, as long as they feel that people are looking in the right direction they shouldn't. hence why we should get some direction going early in the day

[Passacaglia]

Now that I'm dead in the Spawn game, I'll play.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by DaddyTorgo

without the bodyguard i think unless the seer has the last wolf or is in peril of being caught, as long as they feel that people are looking in the right direction they shouldn't. hence why we should get some direction going early in the day

i disagree, if the seer has 2 succesfull scans we could have 4/6 people cleared. If the seer gets night killed we get nothing

[Lathum]

VOTE PASSACAGLIA

[st.cronin]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

Now that I'm dead in the Spawn game, I'll play.

You can be on my team.

[DaddyTorgo]

but we have to find the traitor too to win the game - so if the seer reveals he just becomes another target for the wolf to take out if we miss the wolf today, and decreases the odds of the wolf hitting the traitor with a night kill (if we miss the wolf today)

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by DaddyTorgo

but we have to find the traitor too to win the game - so if the seer reveals he just becomes another target for the wolf to take out if we miss the wolf today, and decreases the odds of the wolf hitting the traitor with a night kill (if we miss the wolf today)

we do?

can we get clarification on that?

[DaddyTorgo]

yes - alan can we get clarification - i have been operating on that assumption all along...

[DaddyTorgo]

since the rules said "you have to eliminate all the reformers" and the traitor is listed as a reformer

[Alan T]

The traitor is a normal generic traitor/spy type role. They scan as a loyalist, count as a loyalist in the villager count and can not communicate with the wolves. They simply win with the wolves and know who they are. All roles in this game are pretty simple/basic roles, no fancy stuff in this game.

[DaddyTorgo]

so we don't have to find the traitor and lynch them in order to win?

[DaddyTorgo]

i just want to be 100% clear on that

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by DaddyTorgo

so we don't have to find the traitor and lynch them in order to win?

Correct, the traitor role counts as a villager but wins with the wolves.

[Telle]

I'm heading out for the weekend, so I need to put my vote in now..

VOTE HENRY

[DaddyTorgo]

booya

In that case Lathum - you have your seer.

*takes a bow*

Both you and Telle are cleared of being the last wolf.

I scanned you Night 1 (which is also partly why i put a vote on you - figured somebody would pick up the change in my attitude or i'd have a headstart on getting people onto you on D2) - you came back as not a wolf ("as loyal as i can tell" or some such words). Also why I dropped comments about the fustercluck last game in which we both had roles and had to reveal. And the hints must have worked - path told me after his death he picked up on them and was going to guard me.

Night 2 I scanned Telle. I grappled with this one a long time (as i just told cronin). Originally I was leaning towards scanning cronin (for the reasons I laid out all day yesterday). Then I noticed him pushing towards me and insisting telle was the traitor and i thought "maybe cronin was the traitor and he's trying to hide telle and get her to endgame". So I thought i'd scan telle/henry/lax. I submitted my order with Telle as my primary scan and henry as my backup if she got eaten. Telle came back as not a wolf as well.

So this is how I know that the king and i, and you lathum, and you telle, are all good and that either henry or lax is our last wolf.

crunching the numbers (*= traitor):

-we get the wolf today and win (4-1*)
-we get the traitor in either henry or lax (3-1 after the night kill) - and finish it tomorrow by lynching the wolf
-we get an unfortunate villager in henry/lax (assuming 2-1-1* after night kill) and we're in a bit of a tight-spot
-we get a villager and the wolf night-kills the traitor (3-1) - and we finish it tomorrow via lynch

So there you go.

[Lathum]

FWIW DT I knew you were the seer after day 1.

either that or you are a wolf hinting but I doubt it

[Lathum]

laxjunkie

really a toss up between him and henry, but I think Telle is the traitor so I am gonna vote oppisite her

[Lathum]

VOTE LAXJUNKIE

[DaddyTorgo]

lathum - you knew b/c of what i mentioned above?

[Lathum]

you made it really obvious you scanned me

[DaddyTorgo]

apparently i made it just obvious enough

[DaddyTorgo]

fwiw though - the logic i presented to everyone else re:that is logic i would have used even if i wasn't the seer

[DaddyTorgo]

oooh, i'm closing in on 8k posts!

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by DaddyTorgo

lathum - i threw another candidate into the mix because as i always say, it's best to try to get people talking and defending themselves on D1. As for why I didn't move my vote - since BK announced that he was going to duke the vote, I frankly didn't see any reason to.

i presume that with BK outed, you would have been the most likely seer target last night, so unless we hear results of that, I am moving forward assuming you are good (or perhaps potentially the traitor). and if you are good, we are on the same side.

Originally Posted by DaddyTorgo

i didn't realize that it would be 4-4 after my unvote necessarily, but i'm not afraid to make the call if it stays like this and take the burden on myself to tip the scales.

one thing i'd like to point out, without trying to be elitest or whatever:

of the 8 players who have voted, all 4 "grizzled WW-vets" if you want to call them that (path, cronin, barkeep, lathum), all voted for EagleFan. Versus the "newer players" who have voted for path.

Something to keep in mind for later - especially if the votes stay where they are. We know Barkeep is the duke and is good, and i tend to believe Lathum is good (as i said earlier, i assume he would be the N1 scan with barkeep cleared and thus we'd know if he was a wolf b/c the seer would out him. he could still be the traitor though).
where am i going with this: we know path voted for EagleFan out of self-preservation. Which means that if eaglefan turns up a wolf, cronin could very well be the other wolf or the traitor looking to spread out his vote (regardless of whether he moves his vote or not - maybe they choose to play with fire and keep the vote there).

If EagleFan turns out to be a good guy, then clearly Path is the wolf or the traitor. In that instance I think we look then at people who voted for Path, and i would look more strongly at laxjunkie (who voted 2 after path), or at henry who jumped right after Telle (wolf afraid to put down the first vote and wanted to wait and be 2nd?)

hey look - one of my longest WW-posts ever!

Originally Posted by DaddyTorgo

well if not today then he'll likely come out tomorrow if he did find a wolf on either of the first 2 days, and then we'd know for sure on lathum

Originally Posted by DaddyTorgo

so you think if path is the bodyguard that both wolves would vote for the same person? so you think the wolves would be who: EF and lax/henry?

if path is a wolf you think the wolves would be: path+you?

we know it's not barkeep, i think we will know if it's lathum (as someone else has said, he'd be a logical choice for a scan and the seer may be sitting on the result today), although I believe it's not. And I know it's not me.

or maybe by leaving telle out of the equation cronin you are actually the traitor and you are trying to hide telle (who also has voted for path)

Originally Posted by DaddyTorgo

lathum - I find you to be largely free of suspicion at this point, given that.

the other wolf (and perhaps the traitor as well) are in the group of: henry, telle, cronin, laxjunkie

cronin was the 2nd vote on EF, I'm not sure what to make of him. I think part of that may be b/c I have been burned so many times by him as a crafty wolf that I am naturally suspiscious of him (and vice-versa, him of me)

Originally Posted by DaddyTorgo

I did no such hemming an hawing - I just waited a long time to vote to see what developed, because I only have ultimate trust in myself + BK at the moment (with lathum right below us)

Originally Posted by DaddyTorgo

so looking at the others - it's either telle or you that are the wolf, lathum potentially the traitor (from my POV - as I have stated about him earlier)

you left a massive trail

[DaddyTorgo]

lol

[DaddyTorgo]

well when you put it that way

[Lathum]

just be glad I'm not the traitor, I would have outed you in the thread

[DaddyTorgo]

which is what gives me some greater degree of faith that you are not, and that perhaps telle is

[DaddyTorgo]

UNVOTE HENRY296
VOTE LAXJUNKIE

[Barkeep49]

We approve of the job the Cardinal has done and will follow the spiritual guidance he has offered us today.

Vote Lax

[hoopsguy]

Tap tap tap ....


This thing on?

[laxjunkie62]

Originally Posted by Barkeep49

We approve of the job the Cardinal has done and will follow the spiritual guidance he has offered us today.

Vote Lax

I guess the chance that you had of having a son meant nothing to you, i guess i will find myself beside him tonight.

[DaddyTorgo]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Tap tap tap ....


This thing on?

lol

[Barkeep49]

Originally Posted by laxjunkie62

I guess the chance that you had of having a son meant nothing to you, i guess i will find myself beside him tonight.

We believe that you did not do a very good job of siring us a son. Otherwise you would not be in this situation. Whether through your incompetent breeding, or incompetent choices of religion we believe your time has come.

[Lathum]

yeah, not much to say today

[DaddyTorgo]

apparently not. Let's hope we done right.

[laxjunkie62]

Originally Posted by DaddyTorgo

apparently not. Let's hope we done right.

and we were doing so well, id look at henry,

VOTE HENRY

[laxjunkie62]

and if I sound reserved, it's because I am. At least I get to be with my son again

[DaddyTorgo]

well if it's not you lax it's certainly henry, so he'll die tomorrow

[laxjunkie62]

Originally Posted by DaddyTorgo

well if it's not you lax it's certainly henry, so he'll die tomorrow

i guess i can rest easily knowing my death made it easy to find another wolf

[DaddyTorgo]

well either we chose wrong or the wolf+traitor are resigned to losing...

[Barkeep49]

Originally Posted by laxjunkie62

and if I sound reserved, it's because I am. At least I get to be with my son again

We approve of the attitude you have taken and since if we find this decided wrong a new decision can be made tomorrow:

Unvote Lax
Vote Henry