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Old 11-18-2011, 09:13 PM   #351
Mota
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Originally Posted by jbergey22 View Post
He is currently only ahead of Cassell, Painter, and Gabbert in FO's passing efficiency rating. Considering coming out of college this was the biggest knock on him Id have to believe these are his "true" ratings. If all of this is true it really doesnt seem reasonable to think that he will be a 5 year starter does it?

Most of these passers aren't running for 60-80 yards a game either though. And scoring touchdowns doing it.

He may not be a good passer, but having a fullback at quarterback does give you the opportunity to do different things, and it seems like things are working (for now).

I'm sure he's not an .800 winner on a permanent basis, but it sure is fun to watch this story unfold.
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Old 11-18-2011, 10:59 PM   #352
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How about Charlie Batch? He still managed to win despite a surprise retirement by Barry Sanders changed the season massively, and on a woefully coached team with old or missing talent. His was the last time the Lions went to the playoffs. The team barely missed the playoffs the following year, and Matt Millen came in and cleaned house.



Charlie put up good numbers in fof. Would have been nice if he could just win those games and not have those high bars. At least Jim knew he was a winner.
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Old 11-19-2011, 08:27 AM   #353
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To me, the difference is that all of those guys were non-traditional passers and weren't very accurate, but they could all throw a spiral. I mentioned this in the weekly thread, but without exaggeration, I think I throw a better 20 yard ball than Tim Tebow.
The ability to throw a perfect spiral is extremely overrated. And while I'm pretty sure you're just being tongue-in-cheek about throwing a better 20 yd pass than Tim Tebow, realize you aren't even close. Tim Tebow can also throw a great ball in the parking lot with his buddies as well. Its the whole "I need to fit a window about the size of a computer monitor while avoiding a 300 lb nose tackle that will squash me" issue that makes QBs throw imperfect looking passes.
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Old 11-19-2011, 08:36 AM   #354
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Vince Young was 26-16 (62% win) from 06 through 09. In the 3 seasons he qualified, Young was 24th, 28th and 18th in the Football Outsider's passing efficiency rating. If he hadn't gone cuckoo, there's reason to believe he would have been the starter in 2010 (5 seasons as a starter). There is a precedent for having success with a non-traditional passer at QB. Guys like Randall Cunningham, Rodney Peete, Mike Vick and Rich Gannon had similar stretches of success with ugly passing numbers. Heck, the Vikes were 11-5 in 1992 and Gannon ranked 33rd in FO's passing efficiency. In 1995, the Eagles were 10-6 and Rodney Peete was 32nd and Cunningham was 30th. In 2004, the Falcons were 11-5 and Vick ranked 38/40 in FO's passing efficiency. All these guys had long careers as starters.

Vince Young pre-flaking out is exactly who he is reminding me of. By the numbers, Vince looked completely inferior to Kerry Collins as a passer but his other skills were what made him a winner. Whether that be his ability (or threat) to run, throw a decent deep ball, or get hyper-focused when the pressure is on & complete passes he couldn't complete earlier when the defense is fresh...those skills led to wins in his team's scheme.

Would they translate to wins in Peyton Manning's offense? Of course not. Are they easily quantifiable? Nope. But they are skills nonetheless & should not be discounted.

I also laugh when people talk about how "dumb" the offense is. If he is beating teams, with an offense that is "dumb", then that suggests to me a defensive coordinator should be easily capable of keying his guys to know the play coming. And if such defenses know the play coming, and still can't stop it, then I'd say you have a pretty interesting set of skills being leveraged by the offense...no different than a great o-line & power HB that cannot be stopped from gaining 2 yds even when you know its coming.
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Old 11-19-2011, 08:36 AM   #355
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Originally Posted by SteveMax58 View Post
The ability to throw a perfect spiral is extremely overrated. And while I'm pretty sure you're just being tongue-in-cheek about throwing a better 20 yd pass than Tim Tebow, realize you aren't even close. Tim Tebow can also throw a great ball in the parking lot with his buddies as well. Its the whole "I need to fit a window about the size of a computer monitor while avoiding a 300 lb nose tackle that will squash me" issue that makes QBs throw imperfect looking passes.

+1. Denard Robinson completed 70% of the pass the Michigan coaching staff had him throw during the off season. He currently has a 52.4% completion percentage in actual games.
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Old 11-19-2011, 09:24 AM   #356
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Originally Posted by SteveMax58 View Post
The ability to throw a perfect spiral is extremely overrated. And while I'm pretty sure you're just being tongue-in-cheek about throwing a better 20 yd pass than Tim Tebow, realize you aren't even close. Tim Tebow can also throw a great ball in the parking lot with his buddies as well. Its the whole "I need to fit a window about the size of a computer monitor while avoiding a 300 lb nose tackle that will squash me" issue that makes QBs throw imperfect looking passes.

Why do you think throwing a spiral is extemely overrated? Because Tebow doesnt throw a good one?

Throwing a spiral in bad weather conditions(which they often have in Denver) is very important. You want the ball cutting through the wind not getting held up by it. You dont have to throw a perfect spiral all the time but it is certainly important for velocity and accuracy on some of them 20 yard throws.

Brady and Manning dont throw perfect spirals all of the time but they are also the best in the business at figuring out who will be open sooner then the rest which allows them a little wiggle room on timing and accuracy.

Last edited by jbergey22 : 11-19-2011 at 10:06 AM.
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Old 11-19-2011, 09:55 AM   #357
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Interesting stats and analysis from Football Outsiders

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/und...-tebows-throws
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Old 11-19-2011, 10:15 AM   #359
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Billy Kilmer was a damn good QB and he nearly threw the ball end over end it was so ugly.

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Old 11-19-2011, 10:19 AM   #361
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I'm loving the fact that Tebow is winning by doing exactly the things that experts have said can't work in the NFL for 30 years. The more collegiate level variety, the better for the NFL.

I do think this is good for the NFL as a whole. I've found myself less and less interested as it has become a pretty sterile environment where everyone essentially runs the exact same offenses and defenses.
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Old 11-19-2011, 10:19 AM   #362
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Some lines from the article posted by Autumn

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It’s laughable to say that an offense that treats the forward pass as a novelty can succeed in the NFL for long, but give Broncos’ coach John Fox credit. By reducing the Broncos passing attack to the bare minimum, he has given Tebow a chance to become much more comfortable.

Quote:
Now, in 2011, the Tebow-led Broncos have brought back high school offenses to the NFL, running the veer and other option-read plays that wouldn’t seem all that unusual to Sanders.

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When Tebow first took over as quarterback, the Broncos appeared to simplify the offense, but it still was close to a standard pro-style offense. Tebow wasn’t always accurate throwing the ball -- but even worse, he didn’t look comfortable going through his progressions. In his relief appearance in Week 5, Tebow’s average time from snap to release was 4.4 seconds and his median time of pass was 3.3 seconds. Admittedly, that’s a small sample size, but that’s off the charts in terms of holding the ball. Steelers quarterback Ben Roethlisberger is generally considered to be a quarterback who holds the ball a long time. For 2010, Roethlisberger’s average time of pass was 2.9 seconds and his median time was 2.7.

Last edited by jbergey22 : 11-19-2011 at 10:21 AM.
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Old 11-19-2011, 10:23 AM   #363
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Why do you think throwing a spiral is extemely overrated? Because Tebow doesnt throw a good one?

Throwing a spiral in bad weather conditions(which they often have in Denver) is very important. You want the ball cutting through the wind not getting held up by it. You dont have to throw a perfect spiral all the time but it is certainly important for velocity and accuracy on some of them 20 yard throws.
Well, don't make the mistake of lumping me into some strawman camp of people who think Tebow is great or something as...(a) I'm not one of them & (b) no such camp actually exists. I said it is overrated, not that it is not more ideal.

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Brady and Manning dont throw perfect spirals all of the time but they are also the best in the business at figuring out who will be open sooner then the rest which allows them a little wiggle room on timing.
I don't disagree with any of this but Tebow is not likely to be compared to either of them either by his style of game, or his end result accomplishments. But the bar can't be "greatest in history" or bust as even those 2 NFL greats & 1st ballot HoFers are not perfect every time. That cannot be the standard for finding a player interesting else you can't actually enjoy watching football.

If you are watching him in order to prove he won't be the next Peyton Manning, then you should stop watching already & enjoy the smug feeling of knowing "he can't do it...hahaha I'm right". If you are watching to see how a raw QB with interesting skills develops, then you're likely enjoying the story as it unfolds.
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Old 11-19-2011, 10:27 AM   #364
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If you are watching him in order to prove he won't be the next Peyton Manning, then you should stop watching already & enjoy the smug feeling of knowing "he can't do it...hahaha I'm right". If you are watching to see how a raw QB with interesting skills develops, then you're likely enjoying the story as it unfolds.

Nah I enjoy the story as well.

I just dont want people to get too crazy about thinking he is something more than he is. It would wreck the entire storyline
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Old 11-19-2011, 10:32 AM   #365
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Nah I enjoy the story as well.

I just dont want people to get too crazy about thinking he is something more than he is. It would wreck the entire storyline


True, but this sports. Of course he is going to be made more (then less) than he actually is.
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Old 11-19-2011, 10:42 AM   #366
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Nah I enjoy the story as well.

I just dont want people to get too crazy about thinking he is something more than he is. It would wreck the entire storyline
Media is media at the end of the day & its just better ratings to talk about how great he will be or how horrible he is & that he'll never be even average.

Calling it like it is just isn't nearly as interesting to read or listen to for all of the analysis shows (at least the 2nd tier shows anyway).
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Old 11-19-2011, 10:53 AM   #367
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I'm loving the fact that Tebow is winning by doing exactly the things that experts have said can't work in the NFL for 30 years. The more collegiate level variety, the better for the NFL.
+1

i have yet to hear a good explanation for why it won't work.
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Old 11-19-2011, 11:01 AM   #369
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+1

i have yet to hear a good explanation for why it won't work.

Bigger, Faster, Stronger defensive players. In order for the offense to keep an advantage they need to keep these guys fooled.

The NFL makes adjustments to stop things. The wildcat was the flavor of of the month a couple of years ago. How long did that last?

Even this great Pats offense has struggled in recent weeks because teams started taking Welker away by doing different things. The offense for Denver will eventually have to adjust.

Anything can work over a small sample size but it would be hard to believe Tebow wont have to start throwing the ball more at some point.
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Old 11-19-2011, 11:02 AM   #370
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I think the ability of a QB to take that kind of pounding for sixteen games would be the biggest issue.
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Old 11-19-2011, 11:09 AM   #371
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I think the ability of a QB to take that kind of pounding for sixteen games would be the biggest issue.

i think that's valid. i don't buy the 'bigger-faster-stronger' defense thing though.
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Old 11-19-2011, 11:11 AM   #372
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Bigger, Faster, Stronger defensive players. In order for the offense to keep an advantage they need to keep these guys fooled.

The NFL makes adjustments to stop things. The wildcat was the flavor of of the month a couple of years ago. How long did that last?

Even this great Pats offense has struggled in recent weeks because teams started taking Welker away by doing different things. The offense for Denver will eventually have to adjust.

Anything can work over a small sample size but it would be hard to believe Tebow wont have to start throwing the ball more at some point.

Quote:
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I think the ability of a QB to take that kind of pounding for sixteen games would be the biggest issue.

This and this. Short term results are great, but even the walking, talking "Football Jesus" will have to become a more complete player if he is going to continue to succeed. Fun to watch while it lasts, though.
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Old 11-19-2011, 11:12 AM   #373
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i think that's valid. i don't buy the 'bigger-faster-stronger' defense thing though.

LOL
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Old 11-19-2011, 11:30 AM   #374
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I think the ability of a QB to take that kind of pounding for sixteen games would be the biggest issue.

Yes...that and needing to have an adequate backup with similar skills to run the same offense. You wouldn't want to build your offense around somebody like Tebow with Kyle Orton as the backup. You'd want to have a Tebow with a Vince Young or at least a Pat White as the #2.

Similar to Vick in Philly...he just can't play 16 games getting hit all the time the way he does. Its like a RBx2 and we know how short their careers tend to be.

In College you only have a QB for 4 years at the most so you really don't have the same long term commitment to an offense or an individual player or offensive philosophy even with some minor exceptions (i.e. Nebraska for many years).
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Old 11-19-2011, 12:18 PM   #375
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i think that's valid. i don't buy the 'bigger-faster-stronger' defense thing though.

Interesting. NFL players get paid a ton of money, as do the coaching staff, in order to adapt to new schemes and/or create their own. There is a phenomenal difference in skill and awareness between high school level football and the NFL. If you think otherwise, I have to question how much you pay attention.
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Old 11-19-2011, 12:36 PM   #376
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Quincy Carter couldn't throw a spiral either. He managed to go 10-6 in 2003.
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Old 11-19-2011, 01:28 PM   #377
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Pat White might break in half if he took some of the hits Tebow has been taking. Hell even some Tebow has been dishing out.
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Old 11-19-2011, 01:30 PM   #378
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And isn't Tebow a new generation as well? A bigger faster stronger QB? Well, I mean if he could throw that is.
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Old 11-19-2011, 01:32 PM   #379
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Holy crap. I almost forgot about that. How the hell did happen? I didn't think Q could win 10 games in madden even.
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Old 11-19-2011, 01:38 PM   #380
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Interesting. NFL players get paid a ton of money, as do the coaching staff, in order to adapt to new schemes and/or create their own. There is a phenomenal difference in skill and awareness between high school level football and the NFL. If you think otherwise, I have to question how much you pay attention.
well, to be fair i am usually daydreaming when football's on. i like to pretend i'm jim mcmahon on the 85 bears. i'd write 'salty' on my headband. y'now, cuz of sweetness. salty and sweet. 2 great tastes that taste great together. plus he was a bit of a firecracker. so it works on a couple levels.

and i'm old enough to know there's no winning on the internet when it comes to opinions.

it'll work.
no, it won't.
you're dumb.
your mother has hairy knuckles.
give me your address because i'm gonna drive to your house and run the wishbone right up your ass!!!1!

i think with creativity and execution it would work. you don't. i can respect that.
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Old 11-19-2011, 02:20 PM   #381
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I think the bigger, faster, stronger is valid, to a point. I don't expect Tebow to Tebow the NFL like he did college football at Florida. Nor do I expect (insert flavor of the month "above average" run/option/pass QB here) to have any success in the NFL.

That said, I do think it is possible that Tebow, possibly the best college QB ever (vomit), could have mid tier success running that style in the NFL. The wildcat can work, neither can revolutionalize the NFL and make every team swicth, but with the right players the single wing could win in the NFL.
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Old 11-19-2011, 02:25 PM   #382
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well, to be fair i am usually daydreaming when football's on. i like to pretend i'm jim mcmahon on the 85 bears. i'd write 'salty' on my headband. y'now, cuz of sweetness. salty and sweet. 2 great tastes that taste great together. plus he was a bit of a firecracker. so it works on a couple levels.

and i'm old enough to know there's no winning on the internet when it comes to opinions.

it'll work.
no, it won't.
you're dumb.
your mother has hairy knuckles.
give me your address because i'm gonna drive to your house and run the wishbone right up your ass!!!1!

i think with creativity and execution it would work. you don't. i can respect that.

awesome
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Old 11-19-2011, 05:27 PM   #383
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Quincy Carter couldn't throw a spiral either. He managed to go 10-6 in 2003.

It was the cocaine.
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Old 11-19-2011, 05:42 PM   #384
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It was the cocaine.

Imagine Tebow on blow. He'd be unstoppable.
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Old 11-20-2011, 02:19 PM   #385
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I am part of a football historians group, and really, the guy he matches up to most in terms of stats and style is Bobby Douglass, who most notably played for the Bears. If interested, look him up.
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Old 11-20-2011, 03:07 PM   #386
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One thing I keep forgetting is this Denver team is really not very good at all. The D is decent. But hell they lost there best receiver (in a trade) before Tebow even made his first start this year (not that that would matter too much when the ball is skipping there). It really is a damn miracle that hes won 4 out of 5 with this squad. They may come crashing down when 4 of there next 5 include SD, Bears, Buffalo and the Pats. If he somehow can pull of wins in even 3 of the last 6, I say that would be pretty remarkable.
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Old 11-20-2011, 03:11 PM   #387
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I can't believe how little credit their defense has been given.
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Old 11-20-2011, 03:17 PM   #388
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I can't believe how little credit their defense has been given.

I actually think they are better then decent, but I have noticed a big difference when they play against a capable offense. which is true for most teams anyway, but I think they need to step up more against stronger teams. Thats what gets you credit.
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Old 11-20-2011, 05:19 PM   #389
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I am part of a football historians group, and really, the guy he matches up to most in terms of stats and style is Bobby Douglass, who most notably played for the Bears. If interested, look him up.

Interesting comparison.
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Old 11-20-2011, 05:31 PM   #390
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I actually think they are better then decent, but I have noticed a big difference when they play against a capable offense. which is true for most teams anyway, but I think they need to step up more against stronger teams. Thats what gets you credit.

True enough, but I straight think the defense has won these games and not Tebow. Tebow certainly has orchestrated some drives, but he's lucky to even be given the opportunity the way he plays for the rest of the game.

I see that acknowledged on occasion, but not as often as I'd expect.
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Old 11-20-2011, 05:37 PM   #391
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True enough, but I straight think the defense has won these games and not Tebow. Tebow certainly has orchestrated some drives, but he's lucky to even be given the opportunity the way he plays for the rest of the game.

I see that acknowledged on occasion, but not as often as I'd expect.

I tend to agree, The D has held it together and also ball control, clock eating, but I mean I'm not sure if they would of won another game with Orton in there, yikes - Not much the D can do about pick 6's
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Old 11-20-2011, 05:41 PM   #392
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and honestly, I'm one of the few that think Orton got a slight raw deal. his Last 2 years were solid but not spectacular, he got yanked pretty quick.

Lots of teams are starting worse QBs then Orton right now. Obviously the move has paid off so far so can't fault em for that.
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Old 11-21-2011, 10:51 AM   #393
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It won't work because only offenses created by "geniuses" like Norv Turner, Al Saunders, and Kyle Shanahan can work at the elite level of the NFL.

What do two of those coaches have in common?
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Old 11-21-2011, 12:34 PM   #394
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I give up.
That's a double whammy and I hate you.
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Old 11-21-2011, 12:36 PM   #395
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Imagine Tebow on blow. He'd be unstoppable.

Tim Teblow?
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Old 11-21-2011, 01:09 PM   #396
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Aaron Rodgers vs. Matthew Stafford kicks off an action-packed Thanksgiving trio of games - Peter King - SI.com

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6. Tim Tebow. This email came to me Saturday night around 10, from a 20-year-old university student named Adam Bond, who covers the Colchester United soccer team, a team two levels below the Manchester Uniteds of the country. Bond wrote:

I love my job and I love the game I wrote about. But I've been a massive NFL fan ever since I once stumbled upon the game flicking through TV channels in the middle of the night nearly 10 years ago. So anyway, today Colchester have a big game against MK Dons, a team quite high in the league. I'm outside the stadium talking to fans to get some quotes when from behind me I hear someone say, "I don't care if his team is winning, he just can't play quarterback." This obviously takes me by surprise, and I listen in on the conversation. The other guy says, "Look, there are only so many Mannings and Bradys and Rodgers in the world, so if you can win with him then why does it matter if he can't throw a perfect spiral every time?" The conversation goes back and forth for a while, and they discuss the cultural aura around Tim Tebow before I turn around and talk to them. Both guys are English, in their late thirties, neither have ever been to America and both discovered the game in the past few years thanks to the NFL coming to Wembley Stadium in London for a game once a year. Both read stuff online, listen to podcasts and watch the few games televised each week in the UK religiously, much like myself.

Whilst the game is growing in the UK, it's still odd to hear a conversation about the sport, particularly at a football game. I love the fact that more and more people are discovering American football. Still, it's astonishing that you can't go anywhere without hearing about Tebowmania -- even thousands of miles away from where the game was played.
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Originally Posted by Schmidty View Post
I give up.
That's a double whammy and I hate you.
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Old 11-22-2011, 11:18 AM   #397
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I actually think they are better then decent, but I have noticed a big difference when they play against a capable offense. which is true for most teams anyway, but I think they need to step up more against stronger teams. Thats what gets you credit.

I live in Denver and will say the Broncos D is a hell of alot better than our Titans D and would take that group over the guys in Nashville. I agree with Jeff the Denver defense really has made this happen to a large degree by keeping them close late so, Tebow can bring them back.

I don't see any games that the Broncos should lose of those last 6 except the Pats. The Chargers are imploding appearing to have completely quit on the coach, the Vikings Petersen is injured, Bears Cutler is out, Bills are slumping, and Chiefs suck. So 4-2 in last six is doable and even 5-1 would not shock me.

Last edited by Galaril : 11-22-2011 at 04:24 PM.
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Old 11-22-2011, 11:19 AM   #398
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Interesting comparison.

I 've heard this alot around town actually.
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Old 11-22-2011, 11:52 AM   #399
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Originally Posted by Galaril View Post
I live in Denver and will say the Broncos D is a hell of alot better than our Titans D and would take that group the guys in Nashville. I agree with Jeff the Denver defense really has made this happen to a large degree by keeping them close late so Tebow can bring them back. I don't see any games that the Broncos should lose of those last 6 except the Pats. The Chargers are imploding appearing to have completely quit on the coach, the Vikings Petersen is injured, Bears Cutler is out, Bills are slumping, and Chiefs suck. So 4-2 in last six is doable and even 5-1 would not shock me.

Also, not trying to pump up Tebow, but his lack of turnovers has really helped not put the defense in bad positions.
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Old 11-22-2011, 12:07 PM   #400
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Also, not trying to pump up Tebow, but his lack of turnovers has really helped not put the defense in bad positions.

That's a very good point. Also, with how much they run the ball, I can imagine that their time of possession (I haven't checked what it is) is also helping out quite a bit.
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