Werewolf CXXXII: THE CUBE (Game Over: Construction Workers win!)

[CrimsonFox]

And yes, Narcizo, for ntn this is a lot of posting.

[Narcizo]

Woh! Three consecutive posts by Dwardzala. That's a record isn't it? What are we missing?

Bet they're seeing all the posting going on here and are trying to compete with Crimson The Unstoppable Posting Machine.

[Narcizo]

Oops! Maybe we're not allowed to comment on the number of posts from the Werewolf main page over there. Sorry if that's the case. Won't do it again.

[CrimsonFox]

As long as we're not going INTO the thread I think it's fine. I did notice that dward and mauboy were up and posting. Happy to see lots of buzz going on both sides. Sorry I'm such a chatty cathy. Was holding my breath yesterday. Everytime I argue with people that vote for me, I get more people voting for me. Took the hint from autumn and hoops and stayed away from posting after I kept getting votes, hoping things would work out.

[Danny]

You guys made a lot of posts after I went to bed. Looks like about 10 posts worth of info distributed over 60 or so

[Danny]

Originally Posted by Narcizo

7 Darth Vilus - mckerney (86), dwardzala (130), J23 (193), CrimsonFox (194), Zinto (201), hoopsguy (209), Telle (214)
5 CrimsonFox - Autumn (82), bhlloy (182), Tyrith (192), mauboy1 (200), MrBug (202)
4 Zinto - Narcizo (84), ntndeacon (100), Schmidty (181), Abe Sargent (199)
1 Autumn - PackerFanatic (97)
1 J23 - Darth Vilus (177)

Here's the votes again for the new page. I'm not sure of where to go as we have very little info at this point.

[Narcizo]

Originally Posted by Danny

You guys made a lot of posts after I went to bed. Looks like about 10 posts worth of info distributed over 60 or so

I think Crimson's working under the assumption that whichever thread has the most posts wins the right for their lynch to count.

[Danny]

Originally Posted by Narcizo

Telle - Get's enough trust from me from the last vote on DV to give her a pass today. Yes, it's a strange world we live in.
Abe Sargent - I think I remember playing one game with Abe where he was a wolf and he didn't do anything like the phone business.Seems like a poor move for a wolf and it's entertaining so no reason to vote him off.
Autumn - Tough to say as he was hardly around. His value as a villager makes me want to keep him around for now.
Dwardzala - Dude just isn't going to post much no matter what. Don't want to hound a new player out but he does have a vote on DV. He has to accept that if you don't say anything and vote for a known villager then you're going to get heat.
Mauboy1 - AnotherUTR player. Better as a wolf than a villager in my opinion. Makes him a candidate to me.
Mckerney - Very active yesterday with ideas. Could be leading us down the garden path but a lot of what he was saying matched up with what I thought so I'm not going to look at him today.
MrBug708 - He's posted more than usual when he's not under pressure but doesn't actually seem to have said much.Always makes me a bit suspicious. Lots of "what's going on posts".
ntndeacon - People have actually been saying that he's posted more? Came up with a trap room being a prime power in the film but that's about it, apart from a prediliction for Natalie Portman. But if this is a new turn for NTN I don't want to discourage him with a vote again. I feel bad about voting for him last time because he posted too much.
Schmidty - can't remember Schmidty's usual play style but he was very UTR yesterday. In fact I'm not sure it could be classified as UTR more like non-existent. Don't want to jump on him just yet though.

Gut tells me that MrBug has the wolfiest vibe of the lot. With the added bonus that if MrBug comes up wolf it seems unlikely Crimson is a wolf on the same team. While I might think the best policy is to vote team-mate as a wolf in his circumstances I think it's a natural reflex for most not to do so.

Vote MrBug

In general being without a seer, I'd probably go with one of the leading vote getters, but they're all in our thread. So going with the vote someone in the other thread idea, then Id likely go ntndeacon who is always quiet and placed a second vote that stuck. Not a super strong case, but I can't come up with something better at this point.

[Danny]

And I'll go with that for now

Vote ntndeacon

[PackerFanatic]

Originally Posted by CrimsonFox

Whoops. Packerfanatic is in OUR room, not theirs. Gee that's how under the radar he is. I never even knew he was here.

So obviously I cannot vote for him.

lol...gee thanks :-P

I do apologize for my lack of being here yesterday. I was on in the morning and placed my vote quickly, before going home and crashing (was up working until 2AM so I was beat). I should be around quite a bit more today (for better or worse )

I think our best options (out of the list we have to work from) today are between ntn and dward. Both cast important 2nd votes (ntn on Zinto, dward on DV) that never moved. The fact that dward's is on the only cleared person in the game (who happens to be a villager) leans me toward him at this point. Not much else to off of.

VOTE DWARDZALA

[PackerFanatic]

Another good reason to put my vote there is that we don't need anymore candidates out there, with how split up things already are.

[PackerFanatic]

And also, for the official record, my vote was for the green door.

[Narcizo]

Originally Posted by PackerFanatic

I think our best options (out of the list we have to work from) today are between ntn and dward.

Personally I hope that this doesn't narrow down to a two-horse race immediately, but the risk is there when the people on the block aren't here to sway the votes or whatever so the contest is going to feel dead. It feels like three or four candidates to start with gives us a much better shot of, at least, getting a wolf in the mix. So I'm willing to move my vote if someone has a strong feeling about someone not mentioned yet.

[The Jackal]

2 - dwardzala - (Tyrith 267), PackerFanatic (360)
2 - ntndeacon - (bhlloy 305), Danny (359)
1 - MrBug708 - (Narcizo 331)

[PackerFanatic]

Well we do have three at this point - but spreading it out too much when the entire group is already spread out could have us chasing our tails for days.

[J23]

I'm wondering if the split groups are the only "punishment" for picking the wrong door, or if we may end up getting 2 lynches.

I suppose the split alone could also lead to a tie vote, which the intro posts seem to say would be a bad thing.

[bhlloy]

I think that obviously, because we have no idea how many lynches there will be today and lynching three people on day 2 would be a disaster, we need to stay away from the possibility of a tie even more than we usually do. Other than that, I think we have to treat it like a regular vote. Losing a day of voting history because we were trying to "beat" the other room is a bad thing IMO.

To be honest CF it pings me a little that you are so desperate to save you and Zinto that you are pushing that, but just a little. Not going to make a big deal of it at this point of the game.

Anyone have any door analysis yet? Anybody see anything so far in the patterns?

[J23]

I'm working on the door patterns. So far, the only thing that seems to make sense is the primary color thing that I proposed yesterday at one point. All those listed in Narc's door voting as blue are in the other room, and we have another primary color in yellow as an option today. The obvious problem with that theory is that there are only 3 primary colors (red, yellow, blue) unless I don't remember my childhood art classes correctly, which would limit the length of the exercise.

I'm still looking at the numbers from a code-breaking perspective and seeing if I can find a substitution cypher or something that fits, but so far nothing.

[J23]

The more I think about it, the less likely I think any kind of alpha substitution with the numbers works.

We have only 10 digits (11 if you could the door number), but they only go from 1-9, so if we straight swap them one for one for letters, we're very limited with what they can spell obviously. If we treat them as 5 pairs, the variance between them is too high to keep them in an alpha range (and when I looked at rolling over from Z back to A, it didn't seem to make much sense).

[Narcizo]

Thinking things through this is actually advantageous to the village in a way. Unless there's a very uneven distribution of the wolves I can't see there being more than 2 from each team in a thread. Say, for the sake of argument, there's three in each thread. Just plain random voting will give you a 33% chance of voting one. Meanwhile they have a very limited ability to steer the vote (particularly if there's only one wolf in one thread). So I think what wolves there are will be trying to steer early on - whether with a vote or by argument. Makes me slightly suspicious of Packer for pushing the idea of a two-horse race. I realise the same can be said of me in reverse but that's fine with me.

[PackerFanatic]

Originally Posted by Narcizo

Makes me slightly suspicious of Packer for pushing the idea of a two-horse race. I realise the same can be said of me in reverse but that's fine with me.

I didn't specifically say 2 (I certainly don't mind having 3 good candidates) - I just don't want to see 4 or 5.

[Zinto]

For now I am going to vote for Schmidty since as I said last night there are a few buried votes I want to look at and the other two Dwards and NTN's are accounted for. I am not a fan of his vote and run even though I think a lot of people (myself included) do it from time to time.

Vote Schmidty

[Zinto]

Originally Posted by bhlloy

To be honest CF it pings me a little that you are so desperate to save you and Zinto that you are pushing that, but just a little. Not going to make a big deal of it at this point of the game.

I will say that if Crimson and I where wolves then it would most likely keep him from being so transparent on trying to save me but him wanting to save himself is understandable.

[Tyrith]

My random pack of commentary -

1) I don't think we should read too much into yesterday. To me, the most important thing on a day 1 vote is the sequence of votes, which is pretty much for math reasons and not trying to read people. It's like how in poker, by far the most important information you get is the other person's betting pattern - with very limited information, everything else tends to be circumstantial and minor in comparison.

This means I can't get really get behind a vote for ntn or Schmidty - while they both cast vote and runs, for all we know Zinto is a wolf. And I say this having cast a lot of D1/D2 ntn in my day.

The comment about ntn and Schmidty being similar also amused me - their posting patterns are very similar, it's true, but I've never seen ntn get very emotional about WW and Schmidty used to have a bit of a temper from time to time

2) My gut instinct is that we're getting a double lynch today, and that the tiebreaker mechanic will not create a third lynch. Three lynches on day 2 just seems like an unreasonably bad consequence for decisions that, ultimately, have a high RNG factor, but I can definitely see two in a game this size.

I'm completely agreed with hoops on this point - we need to have a legitimate vote and not try to game the system, because we're going to need the data later.

3) In a game with two wolf teams...doesn't this make our voting record kinda sucky for a long time? It's possible for a wolf to vote for a wolf without knowing it because of the two team structure. This means we could be throwing darts with a blindfold on for a good while longer than I would like.

4) I also voted for the stupid orange door that got us here. And I really have no idea which door to vote for today. Not going to think about it until after work.

[hoopsguy]

What is JAG doing in here? Besides trying to get my Day 2 vote

[J23]

I'm hoping he's just catching up on the results from last night.

[J23]

Then again, I don't think he's even in this game...

[Narcizo]

Originally Posted by Tyrith

3) In a game with two wolf teams...doesn't this make our voting record kinda sucky for a long time? It's possible for a wolf to vote for a wolf without knowing it because of the two team structure. This means we could be throwing darts with a blindfold on for a good while longer than I would like.

It's definitely going to make it hard to create a trust list, especially without a seer. On the plus side the wolves aren't as all-knowing as they are in normal games either.

About Schmidty and NTN - well yes they might be voting for a wolf for all we know and that still doesn't preclude them from being a wolf in a different team (or the same team for that matter). But we don't really have an awful lot else to go by unless we go with instincts. So unless we limit our vote to Dwardzala, Telle and Mckerney then we going to have to vote for someone who voted for an unknown. If Zinto is a villager then it makes sense for him to vote for Schmidty. And if he isn't a villager well, it still makes sense for him to vote Schmidty unless Schmidty is a wolf on his team.

[hoopsguy]

Originally Posted by J23

Then again, I don't think he's even in this game...

That was my point ... going from memory, I didn't think he was in the game.

[Tyrith]

Yeah, I was about to have to at you guys.

[Narcizo]

Originally Posted by Zinto

I will say that if Crimson and I where wolves then it would most likely keep him from being so transparent on trying to save me but him wanting to save himself is understandable.

I'm all about keeping Crimson around at the moment and I said I wouldn't have voted him today anyway but last game he put up hardly any fight to being voted out when he was a villager. Makes me wonder.

[JAG]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

That was my point ... going from memory, I didn't think he was in the game.

Just catching up on the game during lunchtime. Shame I'm not able to play in this one, been a good one thus far.

Carry on.

[Narcizo]

I'm happier about voting Bug than voting Schmidty but I'm happier creating a viable three-horse race, rather than just having Dwardza and NTN pulling away from single votes on Schmidty and Bug.

Unvote MrBug
Vote Schmidty

Not going to be around much more today. Dunno what to do about the door. I'll vote Brown, based on even less than yesterday.

[J23]

vote dwardzala

Not much to go on between the three, but dward's vote was on a confirmed villager (like my vote was unfortuantely).

[CrimsonFox]

Originally Posted by J23

I'm working on the door patterns. So far, the only thing that seems to make sense is the primary color thing that I proposed yesterday at one point. All those listed in Narc's door voting as blue are in the other room, and we have another primary color in yellow as an option today. The obvious problem with that theory is that there are only 3 primary colors (red, yellow, blue) unless I don't remember my childhood art classes correctly, which would limit the length of the exercise.

I'm still looking at the numbers from a code-breaking perspective and seeing if I can find a substitution cypher or something that fits, but so far nothing.

Actually thinking scientifically instead of artistically, red blue and green are primary colors, and cyan magenta and yellow are the primary pigments. THe first three are additive (adding them together makes white) and the second three are subtractive (adding them together makes black).

[The Jackal]

3 - dwardzala - Tyrith (267), PackerFanatic (360), J23 (384)
2 - ntndeacon - bhlloy (305), Danny (359)
2 - Schmidty - Zinto (372), Narcizo (383)

[CrimsonFox]

For what it's worth I care more about saving myself than Zinto.

[CrimsonFox]

vote JAG

[CrimsonFox]

hmmmm, well ntn and schmidty were the two people I was deciding between. Now that schmidty isn't a 4th candidate he is an option...

Still thinking. I think every game I've played with ntn, he is on the block every single day, yet I don't think I've ever seen him lynched.

[CrimsonFox]

okay I'll go here

let's see if his magic escape powers still work

unvote JAG
vote ntndeacon

[hoopsguy]

The "voted for a villager, may have been saving a wolf" factor is even smaller here than normal with two wolf teams. For that to be the case, they would have had to be wolves on the same team. Assuming 3 per team, the chance = 3/19 * 2/18 = 1.75%. I'm all for slight edges, but this one is pretty minute.

Still, I guess it is something (shrug):
VOTE DWARDZALA

[Tyrith]

Everything else seems like total guessing, though. I'm honestly not sure how we're ever going to develop information to go off without any linkages and without a seer. If we assume four wolves, two pairs, and we kill one wolf out of each pair...what do we do with eight or so people left in that scenario? I feel like we'll just be throwing blindfolded darts. But this is down the road a little bit, and there might be interactions with the cube we don't know about yet.

[Danny]

Is jag even playing?

[PackerFanatic]

Originally Posted by Danny

Is jag even playing?

lol - no. CF is just pulling a Lathum today

[CrimsonFox]

Originally Posted by Tyrith

Everything else seems like total guessing, though. I'm honestly not sure how we're ever going to develop information to go off without any linkages and without a seer. If we assume four wolves, two pairs, and we kill one wolf out of each pair...what do we do with eight or so people left in that scenario? I feel like we'll just be throwing blindfolded darts. But this is down the road a little bit, and there might be interactions with the cube we don't know about yet.

Which is why looking solely at votes isn't a lasting solution. And nowadays, wolves throw votes on other wolves like...like...(looks in his analogy book)...like maggots on a corpse. I would think there are 2 teams of 3 wolves minimum. We've seen many games of 6 wolves including the last one. Autumn's vegas baby game that had two wolf croups had 2 groups of 3 as well. About the same number of total players in each.

[Tyrith]

There's no way there are six wolves in this game; the way this game looks we could lose in three days that way. 4 or 5 seems vastly more likely.

[hoopsguy]

Nah, I don't think the wolves win as a group - they win as "wolf team a" or "wolf team b". Which means it wouldn't be over in 3 days.

Of course, I'll now go check the rules to make sure my assumptions are at least in the right ballpark ...

[hoopsguy]

Victory conditions:
Village: Minor - Outlast both wolf teams, Major - Outlast both wolf teams and escape the Cube
Wolves: Minor - Outlast other wolf team, Major - Outlast other wolf team, achieve 1-1 ratio with other cube members

So if we started 13-3-3 they would have to get the villagers down to 3 to get a win - that won't be done in 3 days.

[CrimsonFox]

Originally Posted by Tyrith

There's no way there are six wolves in this game; the way this game looks we could lose in three days that way. 4 or 5 seems vastly more likely.

Are you sure you aren't saldana? Of course there could be 6 wolves in the game. I would say there is very little chance of an odd number.

Look up all the games this year. GMs seem to like wolves aplenty.

[hoopsguy]

Or at least I hope it can't be done in 3 days ... even with a double kill each day (non-standard night kills, right?) that should take at least 5 days. Throw in some chaos with the inferno and commando roles, and I still think 4 days would be wildly optimistic for wolves to think of attaining victory.