WW LXVII -- The Return of Divination Nation! (GAME OVER STUDENTS WIN!!!)

[nfg22]

for now I vote

NO LYNCH

[SnDvls]

Originally Posted by saldana

where the hell did it say that?

However voting No Lynch does count as a vote

he replied to me just up a ways

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by nfg22

triple dola. The reason why we should kill someone, and someone with the most scans is because we cant make any progress till we see if a scan was right or wrong. Even if we had some scans come up as wolf, we have no reason to believe it. We need to kill someone, preferable with alot of scans.

Okay, I'm starting to come on board with finding out about another person -- it would be nice if, on Day 2, we had two people we know about, and hopefully we can look at people who were 50/50. As far as I know, Pumpy's been active, but hasn't told us who he scanned -- at least JE just hasn't been around, and he probably will tell us who he scanned tomorrow. Pumpy, I don't like voting for newbies, so I really hope you just tell us who you scanned, and I'll unvote you.

UNVOTE NO LYNCH
VOTE PUMPY TUDORS

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by Greyroofoo

If you have a better suggestion I'm all ears, I'm just throwing this out here so we have some kind of plan.

I chose the groups in alphabetical order, I chose the targets because they the first 4 in the sign up list from page 1.

I'm definitely open to improvements on how we should do this.

I still don't understand what you're proposing we do with those groups.

[The Jackal]

Originally Posted by Barkeep49

This post was copied into this thread after being posted incorrectly in the money, money, money game.

~BK, YFWWM

Ha, thanks.

[SnDvls]

Vote No Lynch

I'm not voting for a new / newer player on day 1

I'd like to see what comes of the group scans for tomorrow

I will be scanning my assigned person.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by st.cronin

nfg, what do you make of the fact that there are zero publicized n-0 scans that came up as wolf?

Well, we have 18 of the 21 scans so far, and they have already all come out as "student". I already did the math and found that the likelihood on even nine players getting scans and none of them getting wolf is 0.21% or about 1 in 500 chances. And that was nine villager scans not counted.

Even if the last three come up wolf, the number was much, much too small to have been random. I think it's a very reasonable guess that N0 scans are all "student" and essentially worthless.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

I still don't understand what you're proposing we do with those groups.

Not sure what was misunderstood. I thought it was pretty clear.

Everyone in Group 1 scans the target listed for Group 1 (Lathum). Everyone in Group 2 scans the target listed for Group 2 (I forget who that is, clap?). And so forth.

We all reveal our scan results tomorrow to see what comes up.

A lot of information on single players helps us get past the accuracy issues.

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

Not sure what was misunderstood. I thought it was pretty clear.

Everyone in Group 1 scans the target listed for Group 1 (Lathum). Everyone in Group 2 scans the target listed for Group 2 (I forget who that is, clap?). And so forth.

We all reveal our scan results tomorrow to see what comes up.

A lot of information on single players helps us get past the accuracy issues.

I don't think I saw the list of who each group was supposed to scan.

[Lorena]

Originally Posted by Greyroofoo

If you have a better suggestion I'm all ears, I'm just throwing this out here so we have some kind of plan.

I chose the groups in alphabetical order, I chose the targets because they the first 4 in the sign up list from page 1.

I'm definitely open to improvements on how we should do this.

Sorry, I didn't mean for it to come out the way it did. I don't have a better suggesion, I'm down with whatever you guys want.

[Passacaglia]

Could it be that none of us are wolves right now, but some of us will become wolves later, and until that happens, all of our scans are good?

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

I don't think I saw the list of who each group was supposed to scan.

Yeah, he posted it in a separate post. It was a few posts after the group proposal.

[Chief Rum]

dola, it was the first four people who signed up.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

Could it be that none of us are wolves right now, but some of us will become wolves later, and until that happens, all of our scans are good?

I hope not, cuz that's messed up.

[Greyroofoo]

Originally Posted by Dodgerchick

Sorry, I didn't mean for it to come out the way it did. I don't have a better suggesion, I'm down with whatever you guys want.

in retrospect however I think we need to choose the targets randomly, since if we keep going down the list, the wolves know when they'll be targeted and that gives them one piece of information that we don't have.

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

Yeah, he posted it in a separate post. It was a few posts after the group proposal.

What is this, a freaking treasure hunt? Okay, it looks like I should scan RendeR, which is fine by me.

[Greyroofoo]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

Could it be that none of us are wolves right now, but some of us will become wolves later, and until that happens, all of our scans are good?

well if thats true then any plans for scanning is kind of moot anyways.

However if there are wolves I feel this is the best way to go about it.

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by Greyroofoo

in retrospect however I think we need to choose the targets randomly, since if we keep going down the list, the wolves know when they'll be targeted and that gives them one piece of information that we don't have.

I don't think we should go down the list -- I think it's something we can revisit Day 2, after we see what kind of trust we have going.

[st.cronin]

I'm about ready to completely disregard all n-0 scans.

[Passacaglia]

PATH: What happens first at night, a scan or a kill? i.e. if we scan someone who gets killed the same night, do we still get to scan them?

[st.cronin]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

PATH: What happens first at night, a scan or a kill? i.e. if we scan someone who gets killed the same night, do we still get to scan them?

Heh, I'm totally ready to think you're a wolf this game, for some reason: I originally read this as "if we kill someone who gets scanned..."

[Lorena]

So if we make our scans known and we actually scan a wolf, wouldn't that make us targets for a night kill? Just kinda thinking out loud here.

[ntndeacon]

Originally Posted by st.cronin

Except that we have 0 wolf results for N-0, making me suspicious of the entire N-0 project.

I understand this reasoning and not saying that clap and Pumpy are totally off the hook, I think that for tonight and tonight only we could cut them some slack. beyond that my day one vote is a fairly normal day one vote.

[st.cronin]

Originally Posted by Dodgerchick

So if we make our scans known and we actually scan a wolf, wouldn't that make us targets for a night kill? Just kinda thinking out loud here.

Well, its likely there's a bodyguard out there. Also one correct scan wouldn't prove that you're necessarily the teacher's pet.

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by st.cronin

Well, its likely there's a bodyguard out there. Also one correct scan wouldn't prove that you're necessarily the teacher's pet.

I think the principle is valid, though -- as villagers, we're looking to get rid of people who are 50/50, and the wolves are looking to get rid of people who are leaning toward being right or wrong more often.

[Passacaglia]

Just to make another plug against No Lynch -- if we want to know who is 50/50, it would be nice if we knew the true identity of two different people. If we just know about one person, we won't be able to figure anything out on Day 1 -- we'll just know that some people were right, and some were wrong.

[st.cronin]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

I think the principle is valid, though -- as villagers, we're looking to get rid of people who are 50/50, and the wolves are looking to get rid of people who are leaning toward being right or wrong more often.

Oh, I agree - mostly. But I'll also point out that there may be all sorts of odd game mechanics in place to make this either a neutral or positive play.

[MikeVic]

I don't get it... why would N0 scans have different rules than other night scans? Is this common in these WW games?

[Passacaglia]

15 minutes until I have to go, and while I might be online before deadline, I don't think I'll be in a state to do any thinking, so I'm going to change my vote before I go. I mentioned in post 376 why I think we should kill someone tonight, so I'm going to put a vote on whoever is leading at the time, so we can avoid a No Lynch -- if it's still tied between The Heinz and nfg, I'm going to vote nfg, since 1) he already has a vote for No Lynch, and 2) we stand to gain more from keeping The Heinz alive, since tomorrow, he might be able to give us info about two of his scans.

[st.cronin]

Originally Posted by MikeVic

I don't get it... why would N0 scans have different rules than other night scans? Is this common in these WW games?

Its not common to have a night 0 in these games. Its also not common for every player to have a nightly scan. However, given that, it would be pretty odd for n-0 to have different rules. But it wouldn't be shockingly odd, particularly considering that this game flows from the mind of PATH12.

[The Jackal]

Who am I supposed to be scanning tonight?

[claphamsa]

I think were gonna be even more confused tommorow, cuz if you scan wrong they will come up a wolf.... so we shoujld have about 50/50 wolf vs villegar scans! this is gonna be wierd....

[Passacaglia]

UNVOTE PUMPY TUDORS
VOTE NFG22

[Passacaglia]

I'll be voting for Pumpy first thing tomorrow, though, if he still hasn't let us know who he scanned. Also, I sent in my order to scan RendeR.

[The Jackal]

Originally Posted by claphamsa

I think were gonna be even more confused tommorow, cuz if you scan wrong they will come up a wolf.... so we shoujld have about 50/50 wolf vs villegar scans! this is gonna be wierd....

Why would there be 50/50? Hell, we could all get villager scans, and only some of them would be accurate.

[st.cronin]

/scan Barkeep49

[Mr. Wednesday]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

I thought maybe everyone in each group scans other people in the same group as them?

The theory that was proposed was to get more scans on a few people, so that when one of them dies, we'll have more information about the accuracy of the people who scanned them.

[The Jackal]

Originally Posted by Mr. Wednesday

The theory that was proposed was to get more scans on a few people, so that when one of them dies, we'll have more information about the accuracy of the people who scanned them.

Right, and I see those groups, but I'm not following who we're supposed to scan. Just anyone in our group?

[MikeVic]

Originally Posted by claphamsa

I think were gonna be even more confused tommorow, cuz if you scan wrong they will come up a wolf.... so we shoujld have about 50/50 wolf vs villegar scans! this is gonna be wierd....

Huh? That's not how I understood it. If you scan someone and they're a wolf, you have a % chance to actually find out they're a wolf. But if you scan someone and they're a villager, you won't get a result that they're a wolf... or is what you're saying the correct way?

[Mr. Wednesday]

Originally Posted by nfg22

As for scanning. We should either all scan one person or four. One person would give us alot of data, but four people would help us find a wolf quicker.

On average, we're going to learn nothing about the wolfishness of someone from grouped scans (because, on average, there will be a balance between accurate and inaccurate seers).

What we stand to gain is information about the seer ability, not information about the wolves. We get information about the wolves via lynching and via wolf night-kills, until we actually have some handle on seer ability. The drawback is, the wolves are interested in the same information, and will be trying to kill the most adept and the most inept of the seers.

[Pumpy Tudors]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

Okay, I'm starting to come on board with finding out about another person -- it would be nice if, on Day 2, we had two people we know about, and hopefully we can look at people who were 50/50. As far as I know, Pumpy's been active, but hasn't told us who he scanned -- at least JE just hasn't been around, and he probably will tell us who he scanned tomorrow. Pumpy, I don't like voting for newbies, so I really hope you just tell us who you scanned, and I'll unvote you.

It's OK that you voted for me. I just don't feel comfortable talking about a scan I didn't choose. I'll gladly discuss my next scan.

[The Jackal]

I wonder if the wolves even know all their partners yet. These first couple days could be crucial, they might not even be talking strategy at this point.

[The Jackal]

Well, unless someone explains this grouping theory to me in terms of who I'm supposed to pick between, I'll just end up scanning someone I'm suspicious of.

[The Jackal]

Originally Posted by Pumpy Tudors

It's OK that you voted for me. I just don't feel comfortable talking about a scan I didn't choose. I'll gladly discuss my next scan.

You know, if your scan turned up a wolf and you don't want to talk about it because you know it may not be accurate and that it'd potentially put a target on your back, I understand. But if that did happen and you get killed tonight, that's going to hurt us a lot.

[Greyroofoo]

Originally Posted by The Jackal

Well, unless someone explains this grouping theory to me in terms of who I'm supposed to pick between, I'll just end up scanning someone I'm suspicious of.

Going by posts #253 and #265,
I have you picking Barkeep

[Pumpy Tudors]

Originally Posted by The Jackal

You know, if your scan turned up a wolf and you don't want to talk about it because you know it may not be accurate and that it'd potentially put a target on your back, I understand. But if that did happen and you get killed tonight, that's going to hurt us a lot.

Yes, I understand. I also understand that it's going to hurt us a lot if you other students lynch me.

[The Jackal]

Originally Posted by Greyroofoo

Going by posts #253 and #265,
I have you picking Barkeep

Hey, thanks, I missed #265, my bad. I could definitely do that.

[The Jackal]

Originally Posted by Pumpy Tudors

Yes, I understand. I also understand that it's going to hurt us a lot if you other students lynch me.

I doubt you are going to get lynched today, unless there's a big run in the next few hours.

For people who may not like no lynch:

I understand that not lynching anyone doesn't reveal a role, but even with the confusion many scans can create, it's probably better to keep as many seers around as possible, and we have a much higher probability of lynching a student than a wolf.

[Pumpy Tudors]

Originally Posted by The Jackal

I doubt you are going to get lynched today, unless there's a big run in the next few hours.

I agree with that.

[path12]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

PATH: What happens first at night, a scan or a kill? i.e. if we scan someone who gets killed the same night, do we still get to scan them?

One fun thing about being a GM is that you'll spend half the first day telling yourself "D'oh! Coulda explained that better" and the other half telling yourself "D'oh! Shoulda thought of that before they asked the question".

Arbitrary GM ruling: Since all roles are revealed in full upon death, if you scan someone who gets killed the same night you won't receive a scan result. If someone sees a major flaw in that reasoning I'm open to hearing it.