Werewolf XXXIII: Animal Farm (SEE POST #4 FOR ALL UPDATES)

[Chubby]

I'm working 330 - 930 pm EST tonight but I'll get my vote in before I leave for work.

Alan - I've been quiet because there is less to go on than in previous games (which is little anyways). Besides, when I speak up noone listens anyways (Spawn II game).

Unless someone comes up with a good answer I'll probably be leaning towards GE for his non vote yesterday...

[Swaggs]

I think bullet is acting a little out of character in this game and I think it is interesting that he kind of slid a pile-on vote on GE just now.

[path12]

Originally Posted by Swaggs

Since this is a change from yesterday, can you let us know whether or not saldana had the tiebreak power yesterday?

Fair enough. Saldana did not have the tiebreak.

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by Swaggs

I definitely lost the tiebreak. Whoever owned it picked me to die.

I don't make too much of that, because I think that more than half of us would have picked me to die yesterday, after the way I was behaving.

I think hoops is coming out pretty hard against Anxiety today, considering that he chose to vote with him, against me, yesterday.

I actually have assumed the opposite, it sounded to me like hoops has been defending Anxiety. Its Bek coming out hard against him today I think..

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by Swaggs

I think bullet is acting a little out of character in this game and I think it is interesting that he kind of slid a pile-on vote on GE just now.

I was going to just comment on that myself... This was after I earlier this morning pointed him out that he has been acting odd... then he comes on throws out a pile on and moves on..

In previous games he has been throwing out wolf icons or other smileys and making a ruckus. He even did that earlier this game before roles went out (i think )... suddenly he stops... why the change?

[path12]

Current vote count:

GoldenEagle 4 -- Alan T (296), Grammaticus (297), RealDeal (337), bulletsponge (349)
RealDeal 1 -- Lathum (298)
BrianD 1 -- Bek (343)

Not voting: ardent, Dodgerchick, Conflaguration, GoldenEagle, Anxiety, hoops, BrianD, Chubby, Swaggs, Greyroofoo, Passacaglia, Blade

[Passacaglia]

It's weird that we've had two people now accuse hoops of attacking Anxiety, when he's done nothing but defend him.

[hoopsguy]

Swaggs, I'm defending Anxiety - the scenario I painted was to suggest why I don't think Anxiety is a bad guy.

[Alan T]

I notice Bullet happily posting in other threads and such.. Someone give me a reason to not switch my vote to him.. I'm getting a really weird feeling about his entire behavior change this game once roles went out (as well as from last game in which he was a good guy as well).

[Abe Sargent]

Agree with AlanT

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by Alan T

I notice Bullet happily posting in other threads and such.. Someone give me a reason to not switch my vote to him.. I'm getting a really weird feeling about his entire behavior change this game once roles went out (as well as from last game in which he was a good guy as well).

I think this is my first game with bullet -- I wonder how much stock I should take in this. I mean, to me, he's not much different...

[GoldenEagle]

I am pretty backed up at work today. But like I said, I did not vote yesterday because of the sickness. I am going to get caught up afterwork.

In the game where bullet was a wolf, he was real quiet at the start of it too. That might be something to ponder.

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

I think this is my first game with bullet -- I wonder how much stock I should take in this. I mean, to me, he's not much different...

Well his last two games (the only 2 I remember being in with him), he posted alot, was pretty open on things, and more than anything posted very high numbers of smileys of all kinds...

He alluded to it at the start of the game too before the roles were out, and mentioned he had alot more smileys for us..

Since roles went out, he's fallen off the face of the planet, very sparsely posting and trying to not draw attention to himself..

Maybe I'm trying to find something out of nothing here, just been trying to watch for abnormal behavior this game so far.

[BrianD]

I love the smell of a bandwagon in the afternoon...

Vote Bulletsponge

He fits my single-vote criteria and he is quiet. Seems as good a reason as any (which is to say not very).

[Lorena]

Originally Posted by GoldenEagle

I am pretty backed up at work today. But like I said, I did not vote yesterday because of the sickness. I am going to get caught up afterwork.

In the game where bullet was a wolf, he was real quiet at the start of it too. That might be something to ponder.

I didn't follow the most recent game (Tanglewood's) so I can't really see a pattern. I don't remember him much on the Frankenstein game when he was bad, other than his smilies at the end of the game, so I can't really form an opinion on him yet.

Actually, I can't form an opinion on anyone other than those who have piled on GE: AlanT, Bulletsponge, Grammaticus, and RealDeal.

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by Dodgerchick

I didn't follow the most recent game (Tanglewood's) so I can't really see a pattern. I don't remember him much on the Frankenstein game when he was bad, other than his smilies at the end of the game, so I can't really form an opinion on him yet.

Actually, I can't form an opinion on anyone other than those who have piled on GE: AlanT, Bulletsponge, Grammaticus, and RealDeal.

What opinion of those people do you have?

[Lorena]

Bullet, I see you're on right now and I'd love to hear what you have to say. Give us a smiley or something

[bulletsponge]

Originally Posted by Swaggs

I think bullet is acting a little out of character in this game and I think it is interesting that he kind of slid a pile-on vote on GE just now.

just what are you saying?

[bulletsponge]

[Lorena]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

What opinion of those people do you have?

Well, I find it odd that so many people have piled on GE because he didn't vote on Day 1. I'm not sure if it's a regular pattern for baddies to miss a Day 1 vote or what.

[bulletsponge]

i see a lynch mob forming. as far as im concerned there hasnt been much to talk about. no seers, no late night visits, nothing

[BrianD]

Originally Posted by bulletsponge

i see a lynch mob forming. as far as im concerned there hasnt been much to talk about. no seers, no late night visits, nothing

Well somebody has to start the paranoid hysteria.

[Chubby]

Well now bullet swings the other way... someone points out that he is being quiet and not doing what posting similies and he goes out of his way to do just that.

He's trying a little too hard and we have history so once again...

Vote bulletsponge

[hoopsguy]

Originally Posted by path12

The night appeared to pass quietly, and you start to hope you made the right decision yesterday, until you wander out by the windmill that is under construction and see the body of Saldana and another message in blood: VIVE!. Still somewhat traumatized by the events of the past couple days, you nonetheless start about your grim business.

SALDANA HAS BEEN KILLED. DAY 2 IS UNDERWAY, DEADLINE IS 9PM EASTERN.

OK, for someone who has read the book - why VIVE!?

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

OK, for someone who has read the book - why VIVE!?

I had figured it something like the revolutionaries in france would say Vive le france (or whatever) meaning something like long live france or something?

I probably butchered that though, but having not read the books or having a role with any deep insight in this game, I just assumed it was because of vive to me makes me think of french revolutionaries.

[BrianD]

Originally Posted by Alan T

I had figured it something like the revolutionaries in france would say Vive le france (or whatever) meaning something like long live france or something?

I probably butchered that though, but having not read the books or having a role with any deep insight in this game, I just assumed it was because of vive to me makes me think of french revolutionaries.

That was my take on it. I have read the book, but probably not in about 20 years.

[hoopsguy]

I like the voting rationale for Bullet (different play) better than I do for GoldenEagle (missed a close Day 1 vote).

There is kind of an interesting dynamic for the bad guys.
- The leader and attack dog(s) know each other, so will likely have some level of coordination. Probably not as obvious as voting together, but some kind of common targets or movement away from people.
- Pilkerton knows one of the people in this group, so he will be looking for keys as well to try and identify the rest of the bad guy group and protect them if he can. Likewise, the bad guys are going to be looking for Pilkerton

So in essence there is going to be an evil circle of trust emerging between those factions.

While fumbling through this game without role reveals one thing I'm going to try and be aware of is people who are aligning themselves together and then trying to determine their intention. I doubt I'm smart enough to get the domino effect I'm after if we reveal one wolf but you have to start somewhere. Relationship mapping is about the best concept I can come up with to attack this game until some role information is published.

[Conflaguration]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

OK, for someone who has read the book - why VIVE!?

It certainly isn't in the book as far as I remember, it's "long live Animal Farm" IIRC.

[Conflaguration]

Oh yeah, Vote BrianD.

I figure that he's voting for the easy option (bulletsponge) to avoid being noticed by the mob. I mean, if I were a wolf, an easy way to get lynched would be to post hardly anything at all and be noticed, no?

[Alan T]

Well, heading out from work for a while. Will be back later tonight before vote. I was hoping for more discussion during the day, but alot of people are laying low for whatever reasons..

I guess my main concerns right now is, while I voted for Goldeneagle, I didnt like how fast a pileup occured after me. (including Gram like minutes after). I don't like how it feels people were just waiting for someone to make a move they could jump on and go "oh yeah me too!" and try to hide inside a vote.

I also still think bullet is acting superflaky, and he happens to be one of the people who piled on hiding earlier. Unless things change for me, I might likely change my vote from GE to bullet tonight.. I guess I don't sit very easily when 2 out of the 3 people who are up for votes are people who I brought up first.

Its like everyone is trying to hide behind what I said this morning and use it as easy outs.

[Passacaglia]

The hell. I don't like bullet or GE as a vote option, and since I already pressed Anxiety, I might as well vote for him.

VOTE ANXIETY

[Lorena]

Well, I'll be gone for a few hours and am placing my vote in case I don't make it back before deadline:

Vote Grammaticus

I'm not entirely sure who else to vote for other than throwing a dart at the list who piled on GE.

Of course subject to change... yadda yadda yadda.

[Lathum]

I agree with AlanT, I think it is possible there is one bad guy mixed in with the GE votes. so

1. AlanT is bad and is trying to cover by posting this theory, AlanT always posts alot of theories so I am willing to give hiom a pass ( plus it's not day 3 yet )

2. Gramm was trying to cast an under the radar vote

That leaves realdeal and bulletsponge. Bullet is playing under the radar and he is usually much more active but for now I am leaving my vote on realdeal. I think it would be helpfull to keep the vote close today to see if anyone shifts late.

[BrianD]

Originally Posted by Conflaguration

Oh yeah, Vote BrianD.

I figure that he's voting for the easy option (bulletsponge) to avoid being noticed by the mob. I mean, if I were a wolf, an easy way to get lynched would be to post hardly anything at all and be noticed, no?

If I was taking the easy option, I would have voted for GE since he had/has the most votes.

Should we be noticing that you and Bek both came up with some cheesy excuse to join together and vote for me? Are you both trying to just "happen" to end up with bad logic that points to me so it doesn't look like you are voting together? Do you think you waited enough time since he voted to not make it look like you were voting together?

[RealDeal]

I was totally piling onto a bandwagon, I freely admit. I don't really have an opinion one way or the other as to whether GE is really a baddy. Getting an early bandwagon going gets people to react and draws info. There's still a good chance I'll change my vote, but it's better to start something early than play grabass all day and have a vote where we have 13 people each with one vote on them. Now we have a couple of candidates, and we can force people to make some choices. That's a good thing.

[path12]

Current vote count:

GoldenEagle 4 -- Alan T (296), Grammaticus (297), RealDeal (337), bulletsponge (349)
BrianD 2 -- Bek (343), Conflaguration (379)
bulletsponge 2 -- BrianD (364), Chubby (373)
RealDeal 1 -- Lathum (298)
Anxiety 1 -- Passacaglia (381)
Grammaticus 1 -- Dodgerchick (382)

Not Voting: ardent, GoldenEagle, Anxiety, hoops, Swaggs, Blade, Greyroofoo

[hoopsguy]

Long post coming - just to make sure it is clear I'm defending Anxiety in this one as well.

Pass, I want to go over yesterday's timeline looking at the votes on Anxiety. I think we have a unique opportunity to look at him, compared to anyone else in the game because he was in a tie and we know the role of Swaggs (other person in the tie) as a good guy. All of my times are CST.

12:36 CST (Post #177) - BrianD unvotes Swaggs, moves to Anxiety
12:41 CST (Post #180) - Swaggs unvotes BrianD, moves to Anxiety
Anxiety is now in the lead with about 7:15 to the lynch. No votes move off of him the rest of the way.

The votes, as of Post #180 (thanks Path)
Anxiety 3 -- ardent (146), BrianD (177), Swaggs (180)
BrianD 2 -- Bek (131), Passacaglia (153)
Swaggs 2 -- Anxiety (107), Lathum (144)
RealDeal 2 -- saldana (152), Grammaticus (169)
Conflaguration 2 -- st.cronin (77), RealDeal (170)

Also, at this point I am the only person who has not voted.

We don't see another vote come in until 4:44 (post #197) where RealDeal moves from Conflag to Blade.

Seven minutes later, GE unvoted DodgerChick. He now joins me as the only person to have not cast a vote.

7:32 PM (Post #219) - I cast the vote to tie up Swaggs and Anxiety. We now know that Swaggs was good (duke). So this obviously is not a particuarly good moment for me, and I'm annoyed re-reading it that I didn't figure out Swaggs was the duke when there was behavior that suggested this.

No votes the remaining 30 minutes. So why, if Anxiety was evil, was there almost no movement over the final seven hours of that lynch to save him? Were they just waiting me out to see where I would vote, as I had stated that I would vote for either Anxiety or Swaggs? Did they control the tie-breaker?

If Anxiety is a bad guy, then he and his teammate(s) had some serious patience on this day to not force the issue. In all likelihood they did not know that Swaggs was the Duke, so they would not take a chance of risking their teammate.

The more likely scenario is that we had two villagers colliding again and they had a decent amount of freedom to put their votes wherever they wanted. Or they were being cautious because one of their numbers had two votes on him and they needed to be able to move him out of a tie if it went in that direction.

Again, I'm willing to listen to an argument for evil Anxiety but until I somehow learn that they controlled the tie-breaker (fwiw, I consider it more likely than whatever the statistics may argue, given the changing statements by Path on how this will come into play) I'm having a hard time believing they were this patient with their votes with one of their number up for lynch.

Thoughts/comments?

[st.cronin]

reading with interest

[stevew]

that's tight

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Long post coming - just to make sure it is clear I'm defending Anxiety in this one as well.

Pass, I want to go over yesterday's timeline looking at the votes on Anxiety. I think we have a unique opportunity to look at him, compared to anyone else in the game because he was in a tie and we know the role of Swaggs (other person in the tie) as a good guy. All of my times are CST.

12:36 CST (Post #177) - BrianD unvotes Swaggs, moves to Anxiety
12:41 CST (Post #180) - Swaggs unvotes BrianD, moves to Anxiety
Anxiety is now in the lead with about 7:15 to the lynch. No votes move off of him the rest of the way.

The votes, as of Post #180 (thanks Path)
Anxiety 3 -- ardent (146), BrianD (177), Swaggs (180)
BrianD 2 -- Bek (131), Passacaglia (153)
Swaggs 2 -- Anxiety (107), Lathum (144)
RealDeal 2 -- saldana (152), Grammaticus (169)
Conflaguration 2 -- st.cronin (77), RealDeal (170)

Also, at this point I am the only person who has not voted.

We don't see another vote come in until 4:44 (post #197) where RealDeal moves from Conflag to Blade.

Seven minutes later, GE unvoted DodgerChick. He now joins me as the only person to have not cast a vote.

7:32 PM (Post #219) - I cast the vote to tie up Swaggs and Anxiety. We now know that Swaggs was good (duke). So this obviously is not a particuarly good moment for me, and I'm annoyed re-reading it that I didn't figure out Swaggs was the duke when there was behavior that suggested this.

No votes the remaining 30 minutes. So why, if Anxiety was evil, was there almost no movement over the final seven hours of that lynch to save him? Were they just waiting me out to see where I would vote, as I had stated that I would vote for either Anxiety or Swaggs? Did they control the tie-breaker?

If Anxiety is a bad guy, then he and his teammate(s) had some serious patience on this day to not force the issue. In all likelihood they did not know that Swaggs was the Duke, so they would not take a chance of risking their teammate.

The more likely scenario is that we had two villagers colliding again and they had a decent amount of freedom to put their votes wherever they wanted. Or they were being cautious because one of their numbers had two votes on him and they needed to be able to move him out of a tie if it went in that direction.

Again, I'm willing to listen to an argument for evil Anxiety but until I somehow learn that they controlled the tie-breaker (fwiw, I consider it more likely than whatever the statistics may argue, given the changing statements by Path on how this will come into play) I'm having a hard time believing they were this patient with their votes with one of their number up for lynch.

Thoughts/comments?

Just to be devil's advocate the other possibility is that if you and anxiety were in cahoots and you started with tiebreaker then you knew you could wait and see what developed before committing your vote.

I still stand however by my stance so far this entire game that usually day one votes tend to pair up two villagers and i haven't seen alot to change my opinon of that.

[stevew]

Originally Posted by st.cronin

reading with interest

me too.

[hoopsguy]

Alan, I have the luxury of knowing I'm not aligned with Anxiety so that isn't something I'm considering but obviously it makes sense for you to work with the information you know.

With that said, I can't envision a scenario where I would defend him this hard if I was working with him. There would be little gain to drawing attention to both of us if we were working as bad guys. I would have quickly tried to distance myself from him today rather than beating this drum.

So my voting question at this point is whether I back the early bandwagon on GE or look at the 2nd surge (is two votes enough to be a surge) pointing at Bullet? I'm probably going with Bullet, but I don't like feeling like I'm being steered by the bad guys and I'm got some lingering concerns about this if I go in that direction.

Since half the people in the game are out here right now, I would be interested in revisiting the tie-breaker reveal scenario. Do people see a downside to revealing they had the tie-breaker on a previous day? We don't have much information to work with in this game, so I would personally be interested in seeing that information revealed.

We know it wasn't Saldana or Swaggs who had it yesterday. I'll freely admit that I did not have it yesterday.

[BrianD]

I also did not have it.

[Lorena]

Originally Posted by bulletsponge

not me buddy, im a chicken eatin, leg humpin wolf

Sorry bulletsponge, I like you and all, but this post keeps haunting me. Was the "leg humping wolf" part a mistake or a Freudian slip?

[Lorena]

dola,

and I did not have the tie-breaker.

To add to my post above, I'm not entirely sure about changing my vote from Gram to Bullet, I just wanted to point out bullet's "slip" to see what you all think.

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Alan, I have the luxury of knowing I'm not aligned with Anxiety so that isn't something I'm considering but obviously it makes sense for you to work with the information you know.

With that said, I can't envision a scenario where I would defend him this hard if I was working with him. There would be little gain to drawing attention to both of us if we were working as bad guys. I would have quickly tried to distance myself from him today rather than beating this drum.

So my voting question at this point is whether I back the early bandwagon on GE or look at the 2nd surge (is two votes enough to be a surge) pointing at Bullet? I'm probably going with Bullet, but I don't like feeling like I'm being steered by the bad guys and I'm got some lingering concerns about this if I go in that direction.

Since half the people in the game are out here right now, I would be interested in revisiting the tie-breaker reveal scenario. Do people see a downside to revealing they had the tie-breaker on a previous day? We don't have much information to work with in this game, so I would personally be interested in seeing that information revealed.

We know it wasn't Saldana or Swaggs who had it yesterday. I'll freely admit that I did not have it yesterday.

Like I said, I was just saying that we can't rule that scenerio out. I agree though that just based on behavior, Im not really putting you or Anxiety high up my list.

Like you I'm torn though about today's vote. If anything I find Bullet's behavior far more suspicious than GE, and am contemplating switching.. right now I am just baffled at how people jumped all over those votes though.. So I m second guessing myself now

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by Dodgerchick

dola,

and I did not have the tie-breaker.

To add to my post above, I'm not entirely sure about changing my vote from Gram to Bullet, I just wanted to point out bullet's "slip" to see what you all think.

Why is it we're curious about who had the tiebreaker? In case it was someone who had to submit the tiebreak vote to closer align them to Anxiety over Swaggs?

I still don't think tiebreak necessarily means good or bad though.

[hoopsguy]

Alan, for me I would like to have knowledge of the tie-break just because it is another information point to evaluate that does not help the wolves select a target for their night kill.

If/when role information becomes available (remember, the wolves do not have complete knowledge as well) then we may be able glean some information from the decisions made by the tie-breaker.

At the least, if the person casting the tie-breaker vote didn't vote for either of the tied candidates, then we learn their relative trust/distrust on two people - their original vote and the person they choose to lynch in the tie.

I just feel like it represents more information and that the release of this information does not have an attached cost of helping the wolves (like a seer reveal or the like).

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Alan, for me I would like to have knowledge of the tie-break just because it is another information point to evaluate that does not help the wolves select a target for their night kill.

If/when role information becomes available (remember, the wolves do not have complete knowledge as well) then we may be able glean some information from the decisions made by the tie-breaker.

At the least, if the person casting the tie-breaker vote didn't vote for either of the tied candidates, then we learn their relative trust/distrust on two people - their original vote and the person they choose to lynch in the tie.

I just feel like it represents more information and that the release of this information does not have an attached cost of helping the wolves (like a seer reveal or the like).

Yeah I follow that. I guess my belief is if playerA had the tiebreaker...

Say they voted for PlayerC, then had to submit a choice between Swaggs and Anxiety, then their circle of trust yesterday would have been Anxiety higher than Swaggs.

Unless something really weird is going on, if you asked PlayerA what their circle of trust was today, then they most likely would have Swaggs higher than Anxiety now, knowing what we do know.

The place this comes into play I guess is if Anxiety is bad, then now we know PlayerA favored a wolf over a good player at least on one day.

With what we know of the result of the tiebreak, I just don't see that PlayerA has much to benefit from saying they had the tiebreak and likely will keep it quiet is all. It doesn't clear them, and depending on Anxiety could end up hurting them

[GoldenEagle]

I used the last hour or so of work to get caught up with this game. I am feeling much better today.

I think bulletsponge at this point is the most suspicious person on my list. Something just does not vibe right with him. He seems to be ignoring some issues. He is trying to lay low just like he was in st. cronin's game. We have such little information at this point that this is good enough for me to vote for him.

Vote bulletsponge