2012-2013 MLB Offseason Thread: Go forth to the 2013 MLB Thread

[EagleFan]

Originally Posted by Toddzilla

Stats of what HAS happened indeed do not tell what WILL happen, but they say everything about what MAY happen.

Once a player displays a skill, he owns that skill. Period. Once Brady Anderson hit 50+ homers, he became a potential 50 HR player. Did that mean he WOULD DEFINITLEY hit 50 HR again, no, but it does mean he COULD.

With the right "help" he could...

[Crapshoot]

Why Ichiro is awesome, part #100:

Ichiro surprises keeper of ‘Ichimeter’ with special thank-you presents (Photos) | Big League Stew - Yahoo! Sports

[MrBug708]

Kuroda reupped with the Yankees for a single year at 15 million. Not a bad number at all

[lighthousekeeper]

Originally Posted by Crapshoot

Why Ichiro is awesome, part #100:

Ichiro surprises keeper of ‘Ichimeter’ with special thank-you presents (Photos) | Big League Stew - Yahoo! Sports

that's a great idea - i should start sending my old shoes to friends as a thank you gift.

[stevew]

I wonder how much extra Dayton Moore paid Guthrie for being a family values(Mormon) type of guy. I bet that way too much importance was placed on that metric. Probably also a reason why Frenchy got paid as well. Do any of the Royals bloggers bring this stuff up?

[JonInMiddleGA]

Not getting the Guthrie hate really. Guy had the best WAR among the existing starters on the staff, he pitched reasonably well in his stint with the team best I can tell (something like 38th among AL starters in WAR). Maybe a little overpriced but not a horrible signing considered he let's the team remove some lesser options from the rotation.

[stevew]

I guess the goal is either to pay large dollars for large performance, or to get excessive value out of cheap players. If Guthrie makes out his probable performance, he seems likely to be worth what he's basically paid. Seems much more like a guy who merits a 1/5 type commitment than a 3/20something.

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by stevew

I guess the goal is either to pay large dollars for large performance, or to get excessive value out of cheap players. If Guthrie makes out his probable performance, he seems likely to be worth what he's basically paid. Seems much more like a guy who merits a 1/5 type commitment than a 3/20something.

Can we make that determination until we see what the market ultimately bears this year? If there's, say, a half dozen guys who provide similar value and they go en masse at 1/5 then I can see all the verklempt better. Even then however, how many of them were willing to play in KC?

[miami_fan]

Evan Longoria, Tampa Bay Rays agree to $100 million extension - ESPN

Evan Longoria has agreed to a $100 million contract extension that could keep him with the Tampa Bay Rays through the 2023 season.

The deal maintains the terms of his contract through 2016, then tacks on six more years for the $100 million. The team has an option for 2023.

"We drafted Evan in 2006 with the belief that he and the organization would grow with each other and together accomplish great things," Rays principal owner Stuart Sternberg said in a statement. "That is why the Rays and Evan signed a long-term contract in 2008, and it is why we are extending our commitments today. Evan has clearly become a cornerstone player and a fixture in our organization. We are proud of what we have accomplished these past seven years, and I expect the best is yet to come."

Longoria, 27, batted .289 with 17 home runs and 55 RBIs in only 74 games because of a partially torn hamstring. He is a three-time All-Star and two-time Gold Glove winner.

The team said that Longoria underwent a surgical procedure on his hamstring Nov. 20 and is expected to be fully healed for spring training.

Rays pitcher David Price, who won the AL Cy Young Award this season, tweeted his congratulations on Monday: "wow @Evan3Longoria we breaking bread over here my brotha...lol happy to see you get paid...I'm sure it feels great!!!"

[stevew]

Upton to the Braves for 5/75.25. Good luck with that.

[Crapshoot]

I think given the explosion of money in baseball, this is the only the start. and I think BJ is due for a season to burst out like we know he can.

[ISiddiqui]

Perhaps. We'll have to see, but Bourn I think is a better player.

[JonInMiddleGA]

Players usually come to the Braves to have their worst season. See Uggla, Dan.

[sterlingice]

Royals "Calling Everyone" To Trade Hochevar & Chen: MLB Rumors - MLBTradeRumors.com

Headline 2013: "Royals calling everyone to trade Guthrie!"

SI

[JPhillips]

The problem is if Bourne gets just a little slower he's not much better than Juan Pierre. No way I'd give him a long term contract.

[stevew]

Originally Posted by Crapshoot

I think given the explosion of money in baseball, this is the only the start. and I think BJ is due for a season to burst out like we know he can.

I think there's more than enough data that suggests he's a solid player but a breakout at this point is probably not going to happen.

[FBPro]

Addition of Upton gives some lineup balance, I like the signing.

[miked]

Originally Posted by ISiddiqui

Perhaps. We'll have to see, but Bourn I think is a better player.

Bourn had a .349 OBP in 700+ PA. He was also not that great on the basepaths (13 CS in 55 attempts). Oh, and he struck out 155 times. Michael Bourn is everything that is wrong with the Braves in that they think he's good. Sure, he compares glowingly to the shit they put out there (like Shaffer and others), but he's more or less about as average as they come.

Upton is not a great signing, unless he reproduces some of his early years. Bourn is a much better fielder, but Upton has more upside at the plate. Maybe not 15M upside...

[stevew]

I wonder if the next move is Prado to 3b and they'll trade some specs for Justin?

[ISiddiqui]

Originally Posted by miked

Bourn had a .349 OBP in 700+ PA. He was also not that great on the basepaths (13 CS in 55 attempts). Oh, and he struck out 155 times. Michael Bourn is everything that is wrong with the Braves in that they think he's good. Sure, he compares glowingly to the shit they put out there (like Shaffer and others), but he's more or less about as average as they come.

Upton is not a great signing, unless he reproduces some of his early years. Bourn is a much better fielder, but Upton has more upside at the plate. Maybe not 15M upside...

Um... a 6 WAR player is good no matter how you slice it (6.4 in Fangraphs calculation - 13th best position player in 2012).

Not sure how that's average. True, a lot of Bourn's value is defensive, but that counts too.

[JonInMiddleGA]

Bourn was also the closest thing to an actual leadoff hitter on the team, first one the team has seen in years.

Now it looks like they may try Andrelton Simmons there ... a guy only a year removed from being labeled as a "all-field, no-hit" prospect. Yeah, that's probably going to work out well.

[sterlingice]

Originally Posted by ISiddiqui

Um... a 6 WAR player is good no matter how you slice it (6.4 in Fangraphs calculation - 13th best position player in 2012).

Not sure how that's average. True, a lot of Bourn's value is defensive, but that counts too.

Still can't just look as last year's calculations. He's been in the 4s the 3 years before that so I think 4 is more likely. Especially when his defensive runs look like 9, 19, -6, 22.

SI

[Easy Mac]

Bourn's defense is entirely based on speed. He'll be far less effective as he gets older. He looks lost a lot in the outfield, but gets to the ball because he's so fast.

Bourn was also going to command another 3-5 million a year over Upton.

[ISiddiqui]

Originally Posted by sterlingice

Still can't just look as last year's calculations. He's been in the 4s the 3 years before that so I think 4 is more likely. Especially when his defensive runs look like 9, 19, -6, 22.

SI

Even if you think 4 is more likely, Upton has been hovering around 3 (and if a fair contract is $5mil per WAR, then $20mil a year is perfectly find for Bourn - as is $15mil a year for Upton - I'm not saying they overpaid for Upton).

[ISiddiqui]

FWIW, It seems like Bourn has been close to 5 WAR if you look at his last 3-4 years, not 4 WAR (with the obvious down year of 2011).

Last 4 years WAR:
Baseball Reference
2009: 4.7
2010: 5.3
2011: 3.0
2012: 6.0

Fangraphs
2009: 4.9
2010: 4.7
2011: 4.1
2012: 6.4

[Chief Rum]

I realize that sometimes things aren't what they appear to be, but I gotta tell you, it feels crazy in my mind to think of Bourn as a $20 M per player.

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

I realize that sometimes things aren't what they appear to be, but I gotta tell you, it feels crazy in my mind to think of Bourn as a $20 M per player.

He might be a case where he is to some teams but not to others. At some point "need" has to come into the equation somewhere.

Maybe if there's a Dennard Span deal to follow this one (or [i]something[i/]) then this looks better to me but at the moment it just feels like Upton is going to be - at best - hitting solo homers.

[Easy Mac]

I could see Fredy go with:

Prado
Heyward
Upton
Freeman
McCann
Uggla
Simmons
______
Pitcher

Prado hit first 53 games in 2011.

[Easy Mac]

dola. I could see him try Francisco at third for a year while they wait to see how Drury progresses in the minors.

[ISiddiqui]

The Nationals decide they can do the Braves better:

Nationals Steal Denard Span From Twins | FanGraphs Baseball

Span, who will likely will give them similar value as Upton (but in different areas), for only $21 mil for 3 years (and only the first two for $12mil guarenteed).

[ISiddiqui]

Originally Posted by JonInMiddleGA

Maybe if there's a Dennard Span deal to follow this one (or [i]something[i/]) then this looks better to me but at the moment it just feels like Upton is going to be - at best - hitting solo homers.

Well you and the Nats were on the same page on that one... what about the Braves front staff?

[GrantDawg]

Originally Posted by stevew

I wonder if the next move is Prado to 3b and they'll trade some specs for Justin?

They really want to, BJ really wants them to, but I wouldn't hold my breath.

[Crapshoot]

Originally Posted by ISiddiqui

The Nationals decide they can do the Braves better:

Nationals Steal Denard Span From Twins | FanGraphs Baseball

Span, who will likely will give them similar value as Upton (but in different areas), for only $21 mil for 3 years (and only the first two for $12mil guarenteed).

Ridiculously good deal; and to get him for Meyer and nothing else? Even better. The Nationals just got richer.

[Ryche]

Originally Posted by Crapshoot

Ridiculously good deal; and to get him for Meyer and nothing else? Even better. The Nationals just got richer.

I like the deal for the Twins, glad they went for an arm with high end potential rather than settling for a higher floor/lower ceiling prospect.

What Span did this year is likely his peak statistically and he's been fairly injury prone. And Minnesota has plenty of replacements available for the short term (Revere) and long term (Hicks and Buxton).

[stevew]

Not sure about the Russell Martin signing. sad thing is the Pirates could probably add Hamilton and Greinke and still be at a profitable salary number.

[BishopMVP]

Come on Dayton Moore, trade Wil Myers for Jon Lester... don't let the Twins upstage you now!

[Logan]

Mets and David Wright agreed to a 7 year extension, believe for $122MM in new money. Will surely hurt the team in later years, but if ownership couldn't get him signed, they might as well have packed up the team and walked away.

[sterlingice]

Originally Posted by BishopMVP

Come on Dayton Moore, trade Wil Myers for Jon Lester... don't let the Twins upstage you now!

But without Omar Minaya, how will we restart The Contest? I guess there's Ned Colletti

SI

[NorvTurnerOverdrive]

Originally Posted by Logan

they might as well have packed up the team and walked away.

or y'know sold the team. if the dodgers are worth a zillion dollars the mets have to be worth almost a zillion.

sorry dodgers we're not going to allow you to run the team threadbare so you can pay off the owners debts. mets? sure, how long do you need?

fuck selig in the ass with a cactus

[ISiddiqui]

Originally Posted by Logan

Mets and David Wright agreed to a 7 year extension, believe for $122MM in new money. Will surely hurt the team in later years, but if ownership couldn't get him signed, they might as well have packed up the team and walked away.

Agreed. And who knows in the later years, the Mets may have their financial house in order and may be able to afford paying Wright as more of a "thank you from the organization" his last few years.

[Subby]

Hate the Span deal. Someone talk me off the ledge.

Werth was a GREAT leadoff hitter. Why bring in a guy whose OBP isn't all that great? Plus I thought Harper has a ton of potential in CF. Feels to me like they are wasting his value moving him over to LF.

Rizzo has always had a big fat chub for Span. I just don't see how this is an area of need. Heck, Bernadina was great this year as a 4th OF and you also have Tyler Moore out there (although he is probably more 1B). You also have Goodwin waiting in the wings in the minors.

[Subby]

Law's Take

Twins do very well in Span trade
November, 29, 2012
NOV 29
5:43
PM ET

Span fills a need for the Nats, but the Twins filled a bigger need by trading him.

The Washington Nationals didn't get much production from their non-wunderkind outfielders in 2012, so adding Denard Span and sliding Bryce Harper to right makes the team better by a couple of wins in 2013. The price they paid was heavy, though, with the Minnesota Twins receiving Alex Meyer the kind of hard-throwing, high-upside arm their system lacks.

Span is a solid everyday player who has made himself into an above-average defender in center, a position where his modest bat will play even though he's not particularly patient and has well below-average power. Span's deal pays him a very reasonable $10.25 million total over the next two seasons, with a $9 million option for 2015, so the Nats get three years of control at affordable prices, and can walk away from Span right at the point where he's likely to start to see his value slip. In the interim, however, he gives them an average regular in center whose value will fluctuate with his BABIP.

He has quick wrists and has a handsy swing, putting the ball in play at a very high rate and using the whole field but rarely driving the ball for power. He's a plus runner who gains a few hits each year from his speed and has been worth a few extra runs a year on the bases as well. Yet even in his two highest-BABIP seasons, he's peaked at 4 wins above replacement (per FanGraphs), and the ups and downs of his batting average on balls in play can shave more than a win off that figure. That's still a good fit for a Nats team that lacked a true centerfielder.

For that, however, they gave up a very good pitching prospect in Meyer, who, if he stays healthy, could easily make the Nats regret this deal in the long run. Meyer is generally tabbed as a future reliever because he's primarily a two-pitch guy who, at 6-foot-7, has had trouble keeping his mechanics together, and comes from a slot below three-quarters. I can see all of those concerns and do think there's a chance Meyer ends up in relief, but I'm also somewhat optimistic that he can remain a starter -- and if he does, he'll likely be a very good one, pitching near the top of a rotation.

Meyer has touched 99 and can work at 92-97 even as a starter, with good life on the pitch due to his low slot, although his ground ball rates in pro ball have been just okay. His slider is filthy, a bona fide out pitch whether he starts or closes in the majors, while his changeup has improved to the point where it's probably a future-average pitch. (He hasn't shown any kind of platoon split so far in the minors anyway.) There's a good enough chance that he starts that I'd hate to give him up for three years of a league-average centerfielder unless my club was an immediate contender -- which the Nats are. For the Twins, this gives them the potential frontline starter they didn't see in the 2012 draft class, when they passed on Kevin Gausman and Mark Appel in favor of very high-upside prep center fielder Byron Buxton. Pair Meyer with the resurgent Kyle Gibson, who showed a plus mid-80s slider in the Arizona Fall League, and the Twins' future pitching situation looks a lot more promising.

This does leave Washington's system fairly short on the pitching side at the moment. The Nats' best remaining starting pitching prospect, Luc Giolito, is out until next summer after Tommy John surgery, and while he projects as a potential No. 1 or No. 2 starter, he's probably five years away from major-league impact. Their next-best starter prospect, lefty Sammy Solis, is just coming back from the same operation. Nate Karns is the sleeper, with a plus fastball/curveball combo and a potentially plus changeup, but he's yet to reach Double-A at age 24. They're going to live or die with the pitching already on the big club, or whatever they can add through free agency, because they don't have much arriving soon and their tradeable assets are dwindling.

One other possible beneficiary of this deal is the Colorado Rockies, should they choose to move Dexter Fowler, a talented, athletic center fielder who doesn't have Span's speed or defensive value but has more offensive potential, especially in terms of power. The Rockies' direction isn't entirely clear to me, but Fowler's youth and affordability should net them a higher return than the strong one the Twins just got for Span.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by Logan

Mets and David Wright agreed to a 7 year extension, believe for $122MM in new money. Will surely hurt the team in later years, but if ownership couldn't get him signed, they might as well have packed up the team and walked away.

easily my favorite Met of all time. Really glad he will be a Met for life.

[ISiddiqui]

Originally Posted by Subby

Hate the Span deal. Someone talk me off the ledge.

Werth was a GREAT leadoff hitter. Why bring in a guy whose OBP isn't all that great? Plus I thought Harper has a ton of potential in CF. Feels to me like they are wasting his value moving him over to LF.

Rizzo has always had a big fat chub for Span. I just don't see how this is an area of need. Heck, Bernadina was great this year as a 4th OF and you also have Tyler Moore out there (although he is probably more 1B). You also have Goodwin waiting in the wings in the minors.

You have to look at it the right way. Harper and Werth ain't going no where. Who Span is repacing is Mike Morse, who was absolutely dreadful in the OF. Harper is good in CF, but Span is really good (dWAR of 2.4 last season and has got oodles of range).

And you get Span for $7mil a year over 3 years (and onl $12mil for the first two years is guarenteed).

[Logan]

David Wright Deal a Solid Bet for Mets | FanGraphs Baseball

[sterlingice]

Adding Span is a plus for Washington. The trade hinges on Alex Meyer. His only chance of being worth more than Span is if that third pitch Law describes is MLB usable. If not, his ceiling is RP and the Nats would win the trade fairly easily.

SI

[Logan]

Tommy Hanson to LAA for Walden.

[Scoobz0202]

Originally Posted by Logan

Mets and David Wright agreed to a 7 year extension, believe for $122MM in new money. Will surely hurt the team in later years, but if ownership couldn't get him signed, they might as well have packed up the team and walked away.

I had this dream of him playing in Cinci. Never would have happened in a million years but now that dream can be put to rest.

[bhlloy]

Angels (and Kings and Clippers) PA guy David Courtney died suddenly at 56. Very sad and games won't be the same next year. Amazing how something do simple as that can be such an integral part of the atmosphere. RIP

Also haven't seen Hanson for Walden anywhere but I like the sound of it. Assume there is more involved?

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by bhlloy

Angels (and Kings and Clippers) PA guy David Courtney died suddenly at 56. Very sad and games won't be the same next year. Amazing how something do simple as that can be such an integral part of the atmosphere. RIP

Also haven't seen Hanson for Walden anywhere but I like the sound of it. Assume there is more involved?

Ditto. Very sad, and way too young. And just two years after Rory Markus, too, who was only 50, I think.

Okay, Braves fans, opinions on Hanson?

I think it's a good move for Walden's future. He doesn't have to worry about closing with the uber-closer Kimbrel in Atlanta, so he can concentrate on being a strong setup man with a great fastball. I think he can be a very positive addition to the Braves pen.

He also started in the minors, but he was hit or msis with that, so I presume he will stay a reliever with the Braves.