Werewolf Small Game XI -- Divination Nation! (GAME OVER WOLVES WIN!! )

[hoopsguy]

Guess we are again pretty close to being on the same page, Chief.

VOTE ST. CRONIN

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by DaddyTorgo

ntn's voting for me as well? whatever happened to ntn+cronin being the top suspects? they pretty much skated away from that distinction earlier in the game.

this is bullcrap guys. The wolves have set this up great. You're going to let ntn+cronin completely skate after they were top suspects?

The ntn suspicion has swung to you, as evidence has come up against you but no more against ntn. Plus, ntn's wolfiness hinges on you, as you're the scan that has him coming up as a wolf.

I never actually felt there was a st. cronin-ntn dynamic, and my scan merely solidified what looked to me to be an either-or between you and cronin.

I think after you two, ntn is probably the most wolfy suspect.

[DaddyTorgo]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Chief, I'm willing to put the vote on Cronin today - it would be terrible luck for him to come back as wolf to dead villagers in each of the first two days.

I was leaning towards DT if your scan on him came up as wolf, but I'm more sure on you than I am on NTN - last night's scan notwithstanding. I'm pretty sure one, but not both, of DT and NTN are a wolf.

obviously i'm going to say this, but that means ntn is a wolf then.

after all the pro-student things I did in the beginning of this game and all, helping to definse the strategy and stuff, do you honestly think i'm a wolf hoops?

[DaddyTorgo]

in that case we need to start thinking about a scan-dynamic for tonight to ensure that we get maximum-readage on people.

Assuming cronin is a wolf that'll leave us 3 people (1 a wolf) after the night-kill.

I wonder if it'd make more sense to focus the scans, or to separate them out again

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Chief, I'm willing to put the vote on Cronin today - it would be terrible luck for him to come back as wolf to dead villagers in each of the first two days.

I was leaning towards DT if your scan on him came up as wolf, but I'm more sure on you than I am on NTN - last night's scan notwithstanding. I'm pretty sure one, but not both, of DT and NTN are a wolf.

That's a key piece of evidence to me, too. As already noted, there is only a 6% chance cronin comes up bad to two students, but is actually good. That's flying in the face of the odds. Could it happen? Sure. But I certainly am not going to sweat my vote on that 6% chance. It's better than any odds we're getting on DT or ntn right now.

[hoopsguy]

DT, I'm willing to take one more night to try and find out which way I would vote between the two of you.

Look at it this way - you aren't getting the vote today and you'll be alive tomorrow, wolf or student.

[DaddyTorgo]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

That's a key piece of evidence to me, too. As already noted, there is only a 6% chance cronin comes up bad to two students, but is actually good. That's flying in the face of the odds. Could it happen? Sure. But I certainly am not going to sweat my vote on that 6% chance. It's better than any odds we're getting on DT or ntn right now.

i'd like to point out that i'm the one that did that math...so if I was a wolf would I really do math like that trying to convict a fellow wolf?

if/when cronin comes up wolf i'd like to submit that as evidence that I am not a wolf also, the fact that I did that math and laid it out there for everyone.

[Chief Rum]

Have we all voted? I believe we have. If path is willing, I am fine with my vote and would go with Nightfall. Anyone else think that's a good diea or should we discuss some more? If not, I will vote Nightfall and recommend everyone else does, too.

[DaddyTorgo]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

DT, I'm willing to take one more night to try and find out which way I would vote between the two of you.

Look at it this way - you aren't getting the vote today and you'll be alive tomorrow, student.

is what you meant to say. No wolf about it.

unless the wolves night kill me. Actually...i dare them to night kill me pansy-ass fraidy lil doggies. I ain't afraid of you...come and get me...if you dare! I'll be waiting

[DaddyTorgo]

NIGHTFALL

[DaddyTorgo]

bring it on you overgrown, hyperactive homeless dogs

[hoopsguy]

I'm fine with nightfall.

VOTE NIGHTFALL

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by DaddyTorgo

i'd like to point out that i'm the one that did that math...so if I was a wolf would I really do math like that trying to convict a fellow wolf?

if/when cronin comes up wolf i'd like to submit that as evidence that I am not a wolf also, the fact that I did that math and laid it out there for everyone.

No one denies you have been helpful, but doing math alone or being helpful doesnb't absolve you from possibly being a wolf. I have seen plenty of wolves play the "helpful villager" and come up looking great (it's a terrific strategy, if youcan pull it off). Narcizo did this in the Rome game and was simply brilliant.

So while I thank you for your help, I wouldn't say it convinces me you're a villager. Just that you're good at math.

Hoops put it best, though. You're not the one on the block right now. It looks like we're going with cronin. So we'll have another night of scans to see who's who.

[Chief Rum]

VOTE NIGHTFALL

[ntndeacon]

Vote nightfall

I am fine with nightfall. this will mean the second of my candidates down. Only DaddyTorgo to go!

[RendeR]

ok, WTF is nightfall and why didn't anyone describe it to me before? =)

[st.cronin]

Nightfall

[hoopsguy]

Originally Posted by RendeR

ok, WTF is nightfall and why didn't anyone describe it to me before? =)

Nightfall = votes final, please move the game along

Of course, this only works when everyone is set on their course of action and the moderator is willing to allow it. If so, then the night phase can begin immediately after all people have voted for it and the moderator sees the unanimous nightfall vote.

[DaddyTorgo]

ntn...i'm not a damm wolf

[ntndeacon]

Originally Posted by DaddyTorgo

ntn...i'm not a damm wolf

And I bet we know your allegiances with even more certainty after tonight. I will tell you right now I am going to scan you tonight. I certainly hope the others do as well. with 3 scans we will have an even clearer picture about your being a wolf. (I do realize that odds are that either Chief or hoops will be the victimof the night attack..which means really 2 scans on DT)

[hoopsguy]

I'm guessing the same thing, NTN - that either Chief or I are going to bite it this evening.

My thought, assuming that Cronin is indeed a wolf, is that all three of us scan DT. If we are going to work with the assumption that Chief and I are good, and one of DT/NTN are bad, then why not coordinate our scans to see if the results match? There is a 9/16 chance that the seers will have matching scans of true allegiance, 6/16 that they are different, and 1/16 that they are both off.

DT, if this is the plan we adopt I would encourage you to scan whichever person you think is most likely to be a wolf. If you think that either Chief or I are pulling a con job, by all means scan one of us. Otherwise, look at NTN.

I'm out for a few hours.

[DaddyTorgo]

I do actually like that plan.

Of course that's assuming those cowardly wolf-bastards don't come and take me out. Which I dare them to...hear that guys...whichever of you is evil...i dare you to come and take me out tonight

[DaddyTorgo]

are we comfortable with the idea that chief and you are good though, and that one of you two isn't pulling a masterful wolf-game? CR in particular is known for pulling some great snow-jobs as a wolf, i'm just worried about that.

But I will certainly go ahead and scan one of you two (hoops/cr) assuming that I make it through the night. I just hope I don't end up with a situation where the one that I scan is the one that dies.

but then again, if the cowardly wolf would come out of hiding and face me, it'd be a whole different ballgame. So bring it mr. wolf

[st.cronin]

I'm not sure Chief Rum has been scanned by anybody.

[DaddyTorgo]

Originally Posted by st.cronin

I'm not sure Chief Rum has been scanned by anybody.

I don't know if you're right, but if that's true that is VERY worrisome cronin.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by st.cronin

I'm not sure Chief Rum has been scanned by anybody.

I have been scanned by ntn, who said I am a student. I believe you yourself was supposed to scan me. I have also requested scans to prove my innocence.

As has been mentiuoned before, both hoops and I are "under-represented" wuth scans. But what has come out has shown us to be students. There is no contradictory evidence out there that I am other than I have been to my knowledge. ntn says I am a student. I correctly picked Alan as a student and ITC as a wolf.

I believe the only evidence against hoops is his bad Lathum scan.

I agree it is worrisome to not have multiple scans by this point, and believe both of us should be scanned tonight. That said, though, there is overwhelming evidence on both cronin and DT, and we have reportedly two wolves left. Hopefully it will be one when cronin is lynched here in just minutes.

And, cronin, I don't know who you're protecting, but don't even try to be disingenuous and say you think I haven't been scanned. You know I have. You're trying to hide your cohort with doubts with your last gasp before you are killed.

[DaddyTorgo]

fair enough CR...fair enough

[Chief Rum]

Anybody seen path? It's a shame he hasn't been here before now, as we had Nightfall votes posted some time ago (of course, he might not have been willing or able to agree to that).

[st.cronin]

I did lie about one thing ... I scanned hoops last night, and he came up student.

[st.cronin]

Just putting that out there fyi.

[DaddyTorgo]

why would you lie about that cronin? because we've got you hmm?

[DaddyTorgo]

wolfy wolfy cronin

[st.cronin]

Was saving it to see if any heat got put on hoops. I thought the last two wolves were Alan T and hoops. Now I think its DT and ntn.

[DaddyTorgo]

well i'm not a wolf cronin

and if you're truly not a wolf then i'm sorry, but the odds were overwhelmingly stating that you were a wolf

[st.cronin]

*shrug* its probably game over after tonight's kill

I did what I could.

[DaddyTorgo]

if you're not a wolf then yeah...it will be game over after tonight's kill. in which case I guess i'd peg...hoops+ntn maybe?

[st.cronin]

If its not you then its gotta be Chief and ntn, I think.

I think random.org really fucked the village on this game.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by st.cronin

If its not you then its gotta be Chief and ntn, I think.

I think random.org really fucked the village on this game.

lol, cronin if you're not a wolf, then I'm probably dead tonight. And, yes, the game will essentially be over.

But if you're not a wolf, yes, a 6% chance of two straight bad reads will have screwed the village. Of course, that's only part of it, considering you also have now lied about who you scanned, meaning we can't trust a thing you say. Considering the evidence against you, you should be proud you lasted to Day Three. We could have killed you off on Day One, and put the village ina much better position.

[st.cronin]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

Considering the evidence against you, you should be proud you lasted to Day Three. We could have killed you off on Day One, and put the village ina much better position.

I actually lie way more as a villager then a wolf. And I've actually played a piss poor game this time around.

[Chief Rum]

Feels like we're spinning our wheels here. Did path say in his weekend plans what the deal was with tonight? It's just the same deadline, right? Or did I miss something?

[st.cronin]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

lol, cronin if you're not a wolf, then I'm probably dead tonight. And, yes, the game will essentially be over.

But if you're not a wolf, yes, a 6% chance of two straight bad reads will have screwed the village. Of course, that's only part of it, considering you also have now lied about who you scanned, meaning we can't trust a thing you say. Considering the evidence against you, you should be proud you lasted to Day Three. We could have killed you off on Day One, and put the village ina much better position.

Actually I think the night kill will be (from least likely to most likely):

DaddyTorgo (if DT is not a wolf)
ntndeacon (if ntn is not a wolf)
hoopsguy (if hoops is not a wolf)
Chief Rum (if you're not a wolf)

[st.cronin]

sorry that should be MOST likely at the top, least likely at the bottom.

[DaddyTorgo]

I dare the wolves to come kill me. Bring it on you wolfy jerks.

[st.cronin]

dola that's all assuming the last two wolves don't actually know each other, if they do then I guess it doesn't matter.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by st.cronin

Actually I think the night kill will be (from least likely to most likely):

DaddyTorgo (if DT is not a wolf)
ntndeacon (if ntn is not a wolf)
hoopsguy (if hoops is not a wolf)
Chief Rum (if you're not a wolf)

Why would the wolves kill DT if he's not a wolf? I would think they would leave him alive, to draw suspicion.

I think it's more pertinent whether you're a wolf or not. If you're a wolf, then there will only be one wolf left. He can make his choice without concern of accidentally killing another wolf, whom he needs to control the vote tomorrow (or Sunday whatever).

If you're not a wolf, there are two wolves left, and assuming they don't know each other for sure, they would aim for someone who is pretty clear of being a wolf. Which is why I think either I or hoops will be targets.

Actually, now that I think of it, the end result is the same. If there is one wolf left after your lynch, hoops or myself will liekly be targeted to leave DT or maybe NTN as the "obvious" lynch victim (whichever one is not the wolf). I there are two wolves left, they will go after me or hoops to be certain they kill a good guy and maintain control of the vote tomorrow.

What exactly would be your reasoning for the wolves to target in the order you suggest?

[DaddyTorgo]

his reasoning would be the same as mine CR, although you've just effectively blown it up for them with that analysis (and cast my suspiscion in your direction). To try to get the wolf/wolves to off me (the obvious suspect) in order to give us better odds!!!

that's why i've been trying to bait the damm wolves all day

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by DaddyTorgo

his reasoning would be the same as mine CR, although you've just effectively blown it up for them with that analysis (and cast my suspiscion in your direction). To try to get the wolf/wolves to off me (the obvious suspect) in order to give us better odds!!!

that's why i've been trying to bait the damm wolves all day

Nothing we have seen so far indicates that the wolves have made too many mistakes I have seen. I have my doubts they would suddenly start making mistakes right now. I'm not too afraid I am revealing something with that analysis.

[DaddyTorgo]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

Nothing we have seen so far indicates that the wolves have made too many mistakes I have seen. I have my doubts they would suddenly start making mistakes right now. I'm not too afraid I am revealing something with that analysis.

oh I doubt it too, but I figured it was worth a shot.

[RendeR]

Man if I were not a bloody corpse this would be over already

[st.cronin]

Just in case there is a duke or something, I sent path12 a conditional order to scan Chief Rum (or ntndeacon if Chief is somehow the one lynched).