Werewolf CXXV - Vegas, Baby - VILLAGERS WIN

[Lathum]

excellent info CR.

Makes me trust sal a little more knowing he wasn't trying to cash in on my death

[The Jackal]

It is nice to know this though, will have to go back and look at the votes now.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by Autumn

Well, that's one idea out there. Basically i'm asking for those who have trouble wtih the deadlines to tell me what might work better. I'd normally do the night deadline shortly after the day deadline, but I want people time to decide what to bet, and how to use their services. I'm wide open to ideas for how to structure that for you guys.

The deadlines as they are work fine for me. You could move them back one hour on each end to be more West Coast friendly, but that doesn't much matter to me. I am able to reach the site from work during the day, so getting back home before deadline isn't an issue, and while the morning deadline is really early for the West Coast, I usually do my night actions, if any, before I go to bed, so it being early doesn't much matter.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by The Jackal

Thanks for painting a huge target on my back, Chief!

I actually don't have a handle yet on what it all means. For instance, I and two others picked ntndeacon, but as a villager, I can assure you, I did not discuss voting ntn with mauboy1 and Lathum. I picked ntn because I felt he was a likely potential D1 target. That said, someone could come along and try to link the three of us of with this (and I would understand that).

Consider all the Lathum choices, too, showing some did indeed fall in step with the "lynch Lathum" plan. That's actually unfortunate, as it is a convenient choice to hide behind if you're a wolf, but still a reasonable choice, given the plan discussion, if you're a villager.

[The Jackal]

Don't get me wrong, I'm all for the information you put out there, just slightly concerned the wolves will target me now since they know I was the only person to get some bonus money from D1. But I'll deal!

[Zinto]

Checking in and reading up.

[Lathum]

Autumn- Were the mobsters given any info that we werent given with regards to how bidding works or that the winning bid amounts would be made public?

[mauchow]

It seems now we are going to start seeing a shift with these bits of info. I wish I could analyze this stuff on my phone but I will have to wait til I get home.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by The Jackal

Don't get me wrong, I'm all for the information you put out there, just slightly concerned the wolves will target me now since they know I was the only person to get some bonus money from D1. But I'll deal!

You could always buy the kill service or the BG service, and you should be good, Mr. Moneybags. Or if you survive, we can all just wonder why that is and lynch you.

[The Jackal]

Well of course I'm going to try and buy the BG service. And if I don't, the wolves will have to pay out their asses!

[The Jackal]

I wonder if the person that bought Destiny got an STD and can't talk for the day or something? Those random services must have some effect.

[JAG]

Chief, good stuff. When I saw that service available, I was hoping someone in the village would get that info out there for exactly the reason you mentioned.

[mauchow]

I have to say that my bids will be a lot different than my previous ones.

[Zinto]

The Lathum bets are hopefully going to be damning to people in the long run even if it is damning to me in the short run. All six wolves could be on Lathum even though I find that highly unlikely although other then him there is no consistency between betters and bets other then on NTN and Chief Rum is tentatively cleared.

[CrimsonFox]

Originally Posted by The Jackal

Thanks for painting a huge target on my back, Chief!

Vote The Jackal

[The Jackal]

Not a lynch target, a night kill target!

[The Jackal]

Originally Posted by Zinto

The Lathum bets are hopefully going to be damning to people in the long run even if it is damning to me in the short run. All six wolves could be on Lathum even though I find that highly unlikely although other then him there is no consistency between betters and bets other then on NTN and Chief Rum is tentatively cleared.

I somewhat doubt their votes were grouped like this. Even if there are money bonuses, this is still a game of werewolf and clumping votes like that is bad juju.

[JAG]

I'm not sure why this didn't come to me before, but there would be no merit for mobsters to stack their bets. I'm pretty sure Autumn said the prize is split among the winners, so what benefit would there be to players who can pool their money to share a pot? It only makes sense to split the bets as much as possible to hopefully have one member pick up the win for the team.

So that doesn't tell us a ton, but it should mean that people who bet the same player on night 0 are not in the same mobster group. This could be useful supplemental info as the game goes on.

[The Jackal]

Just going to get my vote out there. May help provide some clarity on day one moves, which could be better to get sooner rather than later.

VOTE DV

[Zinto]

Originally Posted by JAG

I'm not sure why this didn't come to me before, but there would be no merit for mobsters to stack their bets. I'm pretty sure Autumn said the prize is split among the winners, so what benefit would there be to players who can pool their money to share a pot? It only makes sense to split the bets as much as possible to hopefully have one member pick up the win for the team.

So that doesn't tell us a ton, but it should mean that people who bet the same player on night 0 are not in the same mobster group. This could be useful supplemental info as the game goes on.

I didn't remember reading that so that makes sense.

[JAG]

I hesitate to vote Darth because I'm nearly certain a mobster would've bet on him. I feel like we've been inundated with hints to vote his way today.

[saldana]

Originally Posted by JAG

I hesitate to vote Darth because I'm nearly certain a mobster would've bet on him. I feel like we've been inundated with hints to vote his way today.

i dont necessarily think they are hints as much as they are reasons. Darth is a very diffiicult player to get any kind of read on (IMO) because he makes a lot of drive by posts, he isnt around at deadlines for the vote juggling, and in this particular instance, he missed the day one vote.

[saldana]

Originally Posted by Lathum

If I am in this position as a wolf I let him crash and burn

honestly, i have absolutely no doubt that you would do exactly that.

[saldana]

Originally Posted by JAG

I hesitate to vote Darth because I'm nearly certain a mobster would've bet on him. I feel like we've been inundated with hints to vote his way today.

double dola, we also have a chance at learning something from his death based on Tyketime's anaylsis on page 7

[cougarfreak]

Checking in after school and reading up. Not much of an inclination today....yet. I'll check back in in a few. Got to get the kids settled down.

[JAG]

I agree if he comes up mobster we learn a lot about D1. If not, I don't think his death is very enlightening. Since I don't feel he's more wolfy than others, and for my previous reason, I'm less inclined to go his way.

[Lathum]

Right now I am leaning towards Jackal. We know he won his bet, and we know the winner of knuckles bid more the the 1K we started with. We know knuckles seemingly does kills, we know a villager was killed last night.

I think it is very likely the mob didn't know the winning bid amounts would be published and JAckals line of thinking was basically bid all for knuckles services knowing he can't be outbid, but also knowing the mob could pool their money if need be down the road.

[Autumn]

I'm going to revise the bidding rules from now on to make it easier. You are no longer allowed to bid more than you have in cash on hand. You can bid on multiple services at the same time, but you have to have cash to cover them all.

[Autumn]

Originally Posted by Lathum

Autumn- Were the mobsters given any info that we werent given with regards to how bidding works or that the winning bid amounts would be made public?

The mob were given the same info about bidding as the residents.

[tyketime]

Originally Posted by Lathum

Right now I am leaning towards Jackal. We know he won his bet, and we know the winner of knuckles bid more the the 1K we started with. We know knuckles seemingly does kills, we know a villager was killed last night.

I think it is very likely the mob didn't know the winning bid amounts would be published and JAckals line of thinking was basically bid all for knuckles services knowing he can't be outbid, but also knowing the mob could pool their money if need be down the road.

If you are correct, how do you suspect Jackal made his bid? I know Autumn has now changed rules (and I think the new way makes more sense). But did Jackal say "all in"? If so, then does that tell us the winner of the lynch bet only makes $150? Seems like such a small amount. Especially since he was the only winner, right?

This isn't passing the smell test for me. My guess is The Jackal is a wolf.

VOTE: THE JACKAL

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by Lathum

Right now I am leaning towards Jackal. We know he won his bet, and we know the winner of knuckles bid more the the 1K we started with. We know knuckles seemingly does kills, we know a villager was killed last night.

I think it is very likely the mob didn't know the winning bid amounts would be published and JAckals line of thinking was basically bid all for knuckles services knowing he can't be outbid, but also knowing the mob could pool their money if need be down the road.

Isn't a simpler scenario just that a mafia team pooled their money last night to win it?

[ntndeacon]

Originally Posted by saldana

i dont necessarily think they are hints as much as they are reasons. Darth is a very diffiicult player to get any kind of read on (IMO) because he makes a lot of drive by posts, he isnt around at deadlines for the vote juggling, and in this particular instance, he missed the day one vote.

Your point is well taken. However in my case, I don't have a hint...I have someone telling me that if I am good I must vote Darth. I won't reveal who that is just yet but thought I would throw it out there

[ntndeacon]

Vote Darth

[Autumn]

Vote count as of post #383

Mckerney (1) - mauboy1 290
Darth Vilus (3) - Packerfanatic 299, The Jackal 369, ntndeacon 383
jackal (2) - crimson fox 365, tyketime 380

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by tyketime

If you are correct, how do you suspect Jackal made his bid? I know Autumn has now changed rules (and I think the new way makes more sense). But did Jackal say "all in"? If so, then does that tell us the winner of the lynch bet only makes $150? Seems like such a small amount. Especially since he was the only winner, right?

This isn't passing the smell test for me. My guess is The Jackal is a wolf.

VOTE: THE JACKAL

I don't get it, if The Jackal is a wolf, why does it matter that he had more than 1K, since if he was a wolf, he could have pooled his money with the other wolves?

[JAG]

Originally Posted by ntndeacon

Your point is well taken. However in my case, I don't have a hint...I have someone telling me that if I am good I must vote Darth. I won't reveal who that is just yet but thought I would throw it out there

Well, that's odd. Do they think if you were a wolf you would confirm it by voting elsewhere?

Lynching Jackal is double-edged. If we really think he's a wolf we should lynch him asap before he can transfer money to teammates or buy services. If he's a villager, we're really shooting ourselves in the foot.

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by ntndeacon

Your point is well taken. However in my case, I don't have a hint...I have someone telling me that if I am good I must vote Darth. I won't reveal who that is just yet but thought I would throw it out there

And you believe that person?

[The Jackal]

Lynching me is a poor idea. Better than letting me get NKed, I guess, but I don't think I've done anything to suggest I'm not a villager at this point. And I'm going to take corrective actions to see if I can avoid a NK. And if they are able to NK me, then they've wasted plenty of money in the process.

[tyketime]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

I don't get it, if The Jackal is a wolf, why does it matter that he had more than 1K, since if he was a wolf, he could have pooled his money with the other wolves?

That's because I'm an idiot noob Pass. The first part of my statement was to try and disprove Lathum's assertion that The Jackal won the bet and thus the services of Knuckles. I agree that Knuckles was very likely won with pooled mafia money.

The second part of my statement was me being confused. Especially in light of my own analysis from the previous page.

UNVOTE: THE JACKAL
VOTE: DARTH VILUS

[Darth Vilus]

So i have to survive again today? Dang, I'll have to hope for the best

Vote The Jackal

Mostly self preservation today but i was actually going to vote for him before the run started

[Passacaglia]

DV, can you explain why you were going to vote for him before?

[The Jackal]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

DV, can you explain why you were going to vote for him before?

Yes, please do.

[Darth Vilus]

Originally Posted by ntndeacon

Your point is well taken. However in my case, I don't have a hint...I have someone telling me that if I am good I must vote Darth. I won't reveal who that is just yet but thought I would throw it out there

If this is true then the person who you are talking to is flat out lying, I'm a vanilla villager. i don't have a real good read on you yet but you were one of the others that i was considering voting for. As to this person telling you to vote for me i have no clue. You're either lying and there isn't a person or there is and they're lying.

[Darth Vilus]

yeah gimme a sec

[tyketime]

Originally Posted by The Jackal

I wonder if the person that bought Destiny got an STD and can't talk for the day or something? Those random services must have some effect.

I thought the exact same thing...

[Darth Vilus]

Originally Posted by Autumn

Vote count as of post #249

J23 (7) Jackal 117, DaddyTorgo 178, Zinto 196, Danny 224, mauboy 1 230, Lathum 234, PackerFan 236
Lathum (6) Pass 118, mckerney 151, Tyketime 160, cougarfreak 191, Crimson Fox 217, saldana 227
Darth vilus (5) JAG 185, ntndeacon 197, hoopsguy 206, J23 209, Chief 211

1. You were the one who began the run on J23 and got him lynched. With 7 people on him there's at least two wolves on him in my opinion (one from each family)

2. You won the bonus which gives you an advantage over the rest of us. it's even possible that your entire team (if you're a wolf) went to try and lynch J23 to make sure that you earned the bonus. The wolves can pool their money so they would only need one of them to win the bonus. I'd wager that they each put their bet on a different person in hopes of having a bigger shot at the pot. I think you were the only one to bet on J23.

Those are the main reasons really. All of this behavior can easily be written off as a normal day 1 or luck in winng the bonus. More likely though it was a cleverly orchestrated plan to try to get some momentum going your way. nyone remember the Prom Game played? the wolves made sure LSG won the homecoming thing so that they would receive the Duke bonus. i think that it's sort of the same deal here.

[The Jackal]

I'm going to be out to dinner up until the deadline, possibly, so if anyone wants to ask me anything it's better to do it sooner.

[The Jackal]

That's fair DV. Obviously we all know why I voted for J at the beginning of the day (though I think my reasoning aside was sound!). Was just luck that he ended up getting lynched on my part.

[The Jackal]

And if there were wolves that ended up on J, thank you, this money will be used against you!

[mauchow]

If ntn is taking orders to vote out dv there may be no rhyme or reason to it as well. He says that the person says he's good if he votes DV.. in complete honesty if someone tells me how to vote and i'm a wolf I'm not going to tell everyone that I'm being told how to vote as it may put a target on their back. as of now I'd be comfortable in saying there are three people that are villagers in my book anyway..CR, jag, and ntn.. well four since I include myself as well.