COVID-19 - Wuhan Coronavirus (a non-political thread, see pg. 36 #1778)

[Thomkal]

2 in SC now

[JPhillips]

Rate of spread is important not just for deaths from this virus, but also because hospitals can get overwhelmed which will cause problems for anyone with a serious health problem.

[Edward64]

I don't like this slow burn.

We know it's here but we don't yet know the extent due to lack to test kits. We saw this in China a month ago (and earlier) and government + private sector should have mobilized and be much more prepared. I get hiccups and confusion here and there, but lack of testing kits is a big miss.

Over the next 4-8 weeks (or until we get good news on vaccine trials)

• more testing that shows many more infected; but do think the elderly are the most vulnerable and younger people without pre-existing don't have to worry as much
• school quarantines, remote work
• market uncertainty and wild swings; theme parks, airlines & hospitality taking more hits
• ... and because I'm feeling pessimistic this morning, a recession for US and a near/recession for China

In-laws called and said they won't be coming over for daughter's graduation in mid-May. Perfectly understandable.

[Edward64]

Looks like May-June for results of vaccines.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/th...?mod=home-page

[JPhillips]

That looks like treatments rather than vaccines for that timeline.

[JPhillips]

American Hospital Association "Best Guess Epidemiology" for #codiv19 over next 2 months:

96,000,000 infections
4,800,000 hospitalizations
1,900,000 ICU admissions
480,000 deaths

vs flu in 2019:

35,500,000 infections
490,600 hospitalizations
49,000 ICU admissions
34,200 deaths pic.twitter.com/GDAADwmg4n

— Seth Bannon ��‍�� (@sethbannon) March 7, 2020

[PilotMan]

I will believe it when I see it. Those are some pretty bold numbers. It doesn't seem like the world numbers (of what we know) support those estimates either.

[panerd]

Originally Posted by PilotMan

I will believe it when I see it. Those are some pretty bold numbers. It doesn't seem like the world numbers (of what we know) support those estimates either.

Yeah believe me I want our hospitals and government to prepare for the worst and don't mind them erring on the side of extreme caution but China's numbers don't support this at all. And my guess is there are a lot of Chinese, Italians, and now Americans that don't even know they have the virus skewing those death rate numbers way off.

[Edward64]

More like best "worst case" guess.

If those nos. really happen in 2 months, it will overwhelm the system.

[JPhillips]

At least one person at CPAC has tested positive.

[tarcone]

Originally Posted by Edward64

More like best "worst case" guess.

If those nos. really happen in 2 months, it will overwhelm the system.

Which means the Insurance companies, Big pharma and hospitals will be jacking up prices just because they can.

[JPhillips]

CPAC attendee shook hands with Matt Schlapp who then shook hands with Trump.

All the old people running or looking to run the country are at high risk.

[PilotMan]

Next tweet from trump will be about how he got the Corona virus, was treated perfectly, and recovered already and is in perfect health, because he's so strong and always wins.

[Lathum]

The senior leaders for the company my wife works for has a call tomorrow at noon, on a Sunday, to update their policy. She is pretty sure they are suspending all travel.

[JPhillips]

Israel announced a 14 day mandatory quarantine for anyone traveling from WA, CA or NY.

[PilotMan]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

Israel announced a 14 day mandatory quarantine for anyone traveling from WA, CA or NY.

Well I'm sure glad that it's the media taking all the blame for all this. I mean, how powerful is the media that entire countries are running in fear because of them.

[Lathum]

I referenced it a while back but throwing it back out because I would love some thoughts.

We have a trip to Cancun planned, leaving 2 weeks from today. Without our kids. A few couples going for ones 50th.

I am becoming very nervous about it. I have zero concerns about getting sick. I am far more concerned with getting stuck in Mexico or quarantined on the way back in to the country for several weeks by an inept government. In laws watching them. My MIL had a heart transplant 11 years ago, no way she survives if it hits.

We have been keeping a close eye and can cancel up to 4 days before with a small fee. I just don't know. I don't want to disappoint my friends, but I am really thinking about bailing.

[JPhillips]

Any time you get on a plane right now you're running the risk of a quarantine.

[tarcone]

1st case in Missouri is in St. Louis county. A girl in her 20s that was studying abroad in Italy has it. She and her parents have self quarantined herself with her parents.

[miami_fan]

One man and one example of how quickly the CV can spread.

Coronavirus: Concern over New Rochelle case stretches to Washington D.C.

[PilotMan]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

Any time you get on a plane right now you're running the risk of a quarantine.

I get it. Crew members aren't really subject to the same restrictions most places, so I'm perhaps a bit more jaded than Joe Public, but I get it.



My Mom just got back from a cruise to the Bahamas and Mexico. She was a bit worried, but the whole thing ran perfectly.



Of course, I'm commuting to work tomorrow and the flight is full, because that just seems like the way that things go, even in the midst of whatever this is.

[Lathum]

NJ has a population of 8.88 million. 29 people have been tested. Totally contained.

[Fidatelo]

Honest question: how do quarantines help at this point, with this specific virus? With the huge asymptomatic period and the slowness in which the world has reacted to this point, isn't it too late? It's clearly everywhere, and by the time a person is discovered to have it and quarantined (or a region, like in Italy) they have been out and about spreading it for 2 weeks already.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by Fidatelo

Honest question: how do quarantines help at this point, with this specific virus? With the huge asymptomatic period and the slowness in which the world has reacted to this point, isn't it too late? It's clearly everywhere, and by the time a person is discovered to have it and quarantined (or a region, like in Italy) they have been out and about spreading it for 2 weeks already.

I think they are encouraging people who have been in contact with someone who has it to self quarantine regardless of symptoms. Will never work here, people are way too selfish and our government doing everything they can to try and save their own asses just makes it worse.

At this point I am resigned to likely getting it and hoping the blood condition I have doesn't kill me.

[Edward64]

The quarantines are to slow down the infections so it does not overload the health system. Yeah, I'm resigned to getting it catching it also.

Went grocery shopping this morning. Plenty of stuff (and toilet paper). No hand sanitizers though and know that n95 masks were no where to be found last week.

All in all, GA is taking it pretty well. Not sure what the reality on the ground is for Washington folks though.


GA numbers are going up!

BREAKING: Grand Princess cruise passengers to be quarantined in Cobb

More than two dozen Georgians aboard a cruise ship quarantined due to coronavirus will be transferred to an air reserve base in Marietta, according to Gov. Brian Kemp.

The 34 Georgia residents and an unspecified number of other people currently on the Grand Princess cruise ship will be “securely transferred” to Dobbins Air Reserve Base, the governor said in a statement Sunday.“These passengers will undergo testing and be quarantined for possible exposure to COVID-19,” Kemp said. “They are expected to arrive at Dobbins late Monday, March 9 or early Tuesday, March 10.”

[panerd]

I think Lathum hit it on the head and unfortunately for some members of the board the answer isn't Trump. We are fucking selfish and Americans are more entitled than anyone. We spend half this thread bitching about Trump but then go on and discuss about how we are young and can get great travel deals. Outside of this thread what is our biggest fear about Trump? We don't want him to be an authoritarian dictator. Where would quarantines work the most effectively? Authoritarian places like China.

One side will blame it on the "red state" people who say I can do what I want I am an American. The other side will blame it on the "blue state" lawyers who say I can do what I want I am an American and you want to restrict my travel I will sue.

Trump is a convenient punching bag but he isn't forcing us to attend sporting events, attend political rallies, go out to eat in crowded restaurants, or to find cheap travel deals. Sure sucks though to think that it might be us that are the problem and not the central government not being Authoritarian enough.

[Lathum]

I think our country as a whole has the attitude "well that won't happen to me!" Look at mass shootings, terrorism, etc...we see it all the time but it is on that little box in the living room happening to others so we don't do much about it except maybe bitch on social media.

It will be interesting to see what happens if and when people start catching this thing and if older loved ones start dying. Will peoples collective attitudes change about it? It will likely be too late by then.

[JPhillips]

I think most Americans will try to do as authorities ask if they feel like the authorities are being honest. Right now, that's the big problem. We can handle a lot of accommodations if we know the threat, but testing is way behind and the authorities aren't being transparent.

Here's Surgeon General Jerome Adams telling Jake Tapper that President Trump "sleeps less than I do and he's healthier than what I am." �� pic.twitter.com/bDpQWWAgUU

— Aaron Rupar (@atrupar) March 8, 2020

The cure for Covid-19 will be developed from the blood of our God-king.

[GrantDawg]

Originally Posted by Lathum

At this point I am resigned to likely getting it and hoping the blood condition I have doesn't kill me.

Me, too. I am at high-risk, but I know that there is little I can do to prevent exposure if it spreads as rapidly as it seems. I work in the public, but not as close to people as my wife and daughter (both work in eye doctor's offices).

[JAG]

Originally Posted by panerd

Where would quarantines work the most effectively? Authoritarian places like China.

20 minutes ago, I told my wife that a China-like quarantine would be hard to implement in the US because people believe pretty deeply in their personal freedom. I don’t really think it’s selfishness as much as it is culture.

Re: all the political stuff, honestly all anyone should want is for our government to be open and transparent about what’s going on, for them to provide states with the resources they need, and to provide us with the best possible advice based on medical professionals and infectious disease experts. I don’t think that’s too much to ask. I’m not confident that’s what we’re going to get based on the initial response, but hopefully there’s still time to mitigate this as best we can.

I’m not personally concerned about contracting the virus, I’m reasonably healthy as are the rest of my immediate family, but I’m starting to get worried about the health care system getting overwhelmed by this and what that would mean for treating other medical issues that occur, along with other community problems (supply disruptions and the like).

[Fidatelo]

Ok, so it's just about slowing it in order to not flood the medical systems, that makes more sense I suppose.


I hope we are learning a lot about how unprepared our society currently is and can apply some of that knowledge whenever the next pandemic hits, because someday it won't be 2% and only elderly, and I'd like to feel we can do more than just slow it down.

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by Fidatelo

Ok, so it's just about slowing it in order to not flood the medical systems, that makes more sense I suppose.

I hope we are learning a lot about how unprepared our society currently is and can apply some of that knowledge whenever the next pandemic hits, because someday it won't be 2% and only elderly, and I'd like to feel we can do more than just slow it down.

Don't think WHO has called this a pandemic yet. I wonder what the deal is, IMO it makes WHO lose some credibility. I don't think it will change how countries respond (seems like quarantines are the go-to thing now).

[Lathum]

My wife’s company just told senior leaders no travel for the foreseeable future.

[tarcone]

The local authorities on my area, after the 1st case, are saying only prolonged interaction with an affected person could lead to infection. He ws saying 20 minutes of conversation and yes, you are likely to get it. Passing someone in the store with it and you are okay.

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by Lathum

I referenced it a while back but throwing it back out because I would love some thoughts.

We have a trip to Cancun planned, leaving 2 weeks from today. Without our kids. A few couples going for ones 50th.

I am becoming very nervous about it. I have zero concerns about getting sick. I am far more concerned with getting stuck in Mexico or quarantined on the way back in to the country for several weeks by an inept government. In laws watching them. My MIL had a heart transplant 11 years ago, no way she survives if it hits.

We have been keeping a close eye and can cancel up to 4 days before with a small fee. I just don't know. I don't want to disappoint my friends, but I am really thinking about bailing.

I'd probably wait till the deadline and cancel if things haven't reversed. You're probably safe but it would really suck to be in another country if shit hits the fan. Especially a country that's not primarily white.

[AlexB]

Originally Posted by tarcone

The local authorities on my area, after the 1st case, are saying only prolonged interaction with an affected person could lead to infection. He ws saying 20 minutes of conversation and yes, you are likely to get it. Passing someone in the store with it and you are okay.

My dad is 87, and takes medication to control an irregular heartbeat, so is obviously very keen to know as much as possible about this.

He was in hospital just for a check last week, and a nurse told him pretty much the same thing (the only difference being she said 15 minutes), and they were on the clock to avoid exposing themselves to people beyond that 15 minute period wherever possible.

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by JAG

20 minutes ago, I told my wife that a China-like quarantine would be hard to implement in the US because people believe pretty deeply in their personal freedom. I don’t really think it’s selfishness as much as it is culture.

We have the highest incarceration rate in the world. Turned over our civil rights after 9/11. Applauded as part of Boston was turned into a police state following a terrorist attack.

Not sure what culture you're talking about but most folks will follow orders here and be labeled un-American if they don't.

[tarcone]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

Any time you get on a plane right now you're running the risk of a quarantine.

So i was reacting to this ridiculous claim. And the airlines agree that this is stupid.

[Ben E Lou]

We had dinner tonight with friends, one of whom is a pulmonologist. He's done as much independent research as he has been able to above and beyond the guidance from CDC/WHO/etc. He's definitely extremely concerned. Probably the most chilling thing he said is that hospitals could be overwhelmed to the point of "this patient needs to be on a life support system, but all of them are currently in use and we can't get any more."

[JPhillips]

Originally Posted by tarcone

So i was reacting to this ridiculous claim. And the airlines agree that this is stupid.

I don't have to travel, so I'm choosing not to for a while. Call it ridiculous if you'd like. It's a small chance, but with a daughter at home it's a chance I'm not willing to take.

[IlliniCub]

Im hoping the government really kicks the response in gear this week in some way. We gotta mitigate this thing somehow

[Radii]

Originally Posted by Lathum

It will be interesting to see what happens if and when people start catching this thing and if older loved ones start dying.

My sometimes morbid thought process can't seem to avoid this, that it is likely a when, not if. We're going to be having conversations with friends, social groups, whatever, about some of our parents dying from this. The only idea in my mind is how soon, and how frequent it might become.

[JPhillips]

Rep. Gosar and three staff in self-quarantine because of the CPAC case.

Kudos to them and Cruz for doing the right thing.

[tarcone]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

I don't have to travel, so I'm choosing not to for a while. Call it ridiculous if you'd like. It's a small chance, but with a daughter at home it's a chance I'm not willing to take.

Is your daughter 70 with respiratory issues? If not, you are being ridiculous.

[panerd]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

I don't have to travel, so I'm choosing not to for a while. Call it ridiculous if you'd like. It's a small chance, but with a daughter at home it's a chance I'm not willing to take.

I'm with you. Honestly I feel like this is what would have happened to SARs etc with 24-7 media and all the social media. I really think they are miscalculating a lot of people who dont ever go to the doctor or report their symptoms to anyone.

With that said the difference between 2004 panerd and 2020 panerd is three children who would have a slight chance of losing one of their parents and really scary numbers for losing their 78 year old grandparents. So why not take extra precautions and stay informed?

My friends and I used to stay in a seedy motel for a Mizzou home games and paid like $40 instead of $250+. Nobody ever messed with us and it's pretty likely nobody ever would but as I got older I fjust started to figure you know it's just not worth it.

[tarcone]

I have a flight on Allegiant at the end of the month. They are offering free cancellations and change of plans.

But they made sure you knew they are a domestic only airline with only non stop flights.

Taking lysole wipes anyway.

[panerd]

Originally Posted by tarcone

Is your daughter 70 with respiratory issues? If not, you are being ridiculous.

What if the 2-3% number is actually correct? In a group of adult friends of like 20 you really like the close to 50/50 chance one of them goes to the ICU or dies?

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by tarcone

Is your daughter 70 with respiratory issues? If not, you are being ridiculous.

The thing that pisses me off most about this whole thing is how people on social media think they have a right to tell people what level of concern is justified.

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by tarcone

Is your daughter 70 with respiratory issues? If not, you are being ridiculous.

Respectfully, I had to do an emergency backfill for a co-worker on a project because his 2 year old child died of the flu. I can't imagine the pain ...

I personally would not take a chance with my child.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by IlliniCub

Im hoping the government really kicks the response in gear this week in some way. We gotta mitigate this thing somehow

When has this administration ever done the right thing?

all the grown ups checked out a long time ago. I think it is more likely we start seeing high level CDC, etc...employees resigning over the handling of this.