Werewolf LXXI - Doomsday (GAME OVER. WOLVES WIN!)

[claphamsa]

who knows! Im sure ill change it, I usualy do at least once

My reasoning stands, if someone comes up with something better, I have no problem jumping! we also have lots of time for analysis.

[path12]

Originally Posted by claphamsa

soooooo, anyone got thoughts about this game?

Haven't had a chance to look close so far today, but I want to look at the voting in hindsight and see how that looks. Just scanning it seemed a little strange but I couldn't place my finger on exactly why.

[PurdueBrad]

Originally Posted by Neon_Chaos

I have votes at:

Vote Count:
(5) kwhit - claphamsa (94), lathum (164), nfg22 (181), narcizo (170), passacaglia (247)
(5) passacaglia - path12 (136), render (163), thejackal (222), kwhit (242), ntndeacon (225)
(3) ntndeacon - purduebrad (75), jeheinz (194), mccollins
(1) claphamsa - imthecrew (153)
(1) purduebrad - eaglefan (175)
(1) nfg22 - sonic youth (213)

Alright, this is pretty shallow, as I keep getting bogged down at work (as evidence by the fact that my "in a few minutes" analysis is coming four hours later!).

Path, here is what I thought or felt was odd about the vote. No late movement to save what-so-ever. Now we had a little less than half the players on but still, I expected more shifting. That felt weird to me. Now, I'm part to blame for that though because I wanted to stay on ntn and was probably being pointlessly stubborn.

Votes for KWhit, known good guy: Claphamsa, also the tie-breaker, Lathum, nfg22, narcizo, and pass

Looking back, KWhit seemed to be "begging" (or at least asking) to get voted for which makes me think he caught something from Narcizo that I did not. That was a pretty decisive play. Nobody mentioned that they thought they were casting a vote for the Duke though so I don't know if anybody was already on that line of thought when casting their votes. Narcizo, a known wolf, was in there. The only vote that came later was from Pass but is likely a self-defense. There could be a second wolf vote in there between Claph, Lathum, nfg22, or Pass.

JEHeinz, our other confirmed good guy was on ntndeacon, but he basically stated that it was standard day one stuff too. And nobody cast a vote on Heinz.

Pass was the other major candidate, KWhit was here. Path, RendeR, Jackal/Jackyl/JKYL/etc., and ntn were all here. This is a pretty high profile group compared to the left overs. I would strongly assume, whether or not Pass is a wolf, that there is at least one wolf in that vote because those are most of our experienced players. Yeah, I'm discriminating against you for your experience.

As for the leftovers. I'll admit to "wasting" my vote to some degree. I was on ntn all day for no other reason than watching him get through last game. I don't have any feeling on him and it doesn't sound like Heinz did either but I didn't feel anything about Whit or Pass either. Collins came over late, to put three of us there but not enough to threaten.

That leaves the other three voters on three different candidates and having no real impact except in that they stayed away from the main two candidates as well. Wolf hiding in there? I don't know, might be too obvious a throw away vote.

[PurdueBrad]

Let me throw this out there as well, since I forgot it. For the group of veterans that were on Pass, it is in their favor that they were not on KWhit so maybe my read about a possible wolf there is wrong.

[RendeR]

Veeeeewy Inteewwwestink

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by Neon_Chaos

I have votes at:

Vote Count:
(5) kwhit - claphamsa (94), lathum (164), nfg22 (181), narcizo (170), passacaglia (247)
(5) passacaglia - path12 (136), render (163), thejackal (222), kwhit (242), ntndeacon (225)
(3) ntndeacon - purduebrad (75), jeheinz (194), mccollins
(1) claphamsa - imthecrew (153)
(1) purduebrad - eaglefan (175)
(1) nfg22 - sonic youth (213)

OK, so we can break this up into 3 groups IMO. Generaly the wolves like to spread things out early on.

Group 1- voted Kwhit: claphamsa (94), lathum (164), nfg22 (181), narcizo (170), passacaglia (247)- We know Narcizo is a wolf. While I wouldn't put it past the wolves to put more then 1 vote on the same candidate I think it unlkely here. Especialy since Kwhit was broadcasting his role, the wolves wouldn't want to lynch him. They would want to leave him for a night kill. Claps early vote, now 2 days in a row doing that, raises some eyebrows for me considering the tiebreaker.

Group 2- Voted Pass: path12 (136), render (163), thejackal (222), kwhit (242), ntndeacon (225)- I think it is likely there is at least one wolf here, if there is a group with multiple wolves I think it is here since the wolves wouldn't want Kwhit lynched. Of this group NTN's vote stinks. He unvoted Kwhit late and switched which makes it look like he is trying to prevent Kwhit from being lynched. The late run also makes it look like an attempt to keep Kwhit from using his power.Throw Kwit's vote out that leaves NTN and The Jackyl.


Group 3- Throwaways-purduebrad (75), jeheinz (194), mccollins all voted NTNDeacon. Of this group Mccollins made a late switch that was completely pointless. I can see this being a move if NTN and Mccollins are both wolves so that McCollins can come back later and claim he voted him. Heinze is dead and purduebrad made his vote and stuck it there. The fact that is was the first vote is suspicous considering the tiebreaker.

ITC- voted quickly, almost like it was premeditated ot planned

SY- total hit and run vote, very different from last game. I was toungue in cheek about why I think he would select Narcizo but I think it merits consideration.

Eaglefan- A complete throw away.

Right now I am leaning towards NTN.

Secondly would be sonic youth because he is playing so differently then last game and throw away votes early always raise my eyebrows.

OK feel free to tear me apart now.

[PurdueBrad]

What is more suspicious (or am I over-thinking) in a game with an early vote tie-breaker, early votes or late votes?

[Lathum]

I just read Brads Post.

I was 100% sure KWhit was the Duke.

I hinted there may be something going on but no way was I going to come right out and say it.

Regardless of the outcome it is a good thing to use his ability early, we get a cleared villager and can start a COT, no matter how small. The fact he got Narcizo is obviously a bonus.

I would be surprised if PAth, NTN, Pass and a few others didn't also realize it. Thats why I am surprised KWhit didn't get more votes.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by PurdueBrad

What is more suspicious (or am I over-thinking) in a game with an early vote tie-breaker, early votes or late votes?

I think it is situational, but I also think there is some merit to the wolves getting an early vote in to cover their butts.

[nfg22]

Wow...I guess its good we got a wolf...but two villagers...jeez...

Personally I am suspicious of Lathum and SY. Just based on different Playing styles from what Im used to, then again Lathum is always suspicious.

Someone said we had a person in the COT. Who is that an why?

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by nfg22

Personally I am suspicious of Lathum and SY. Just based on different Playing styles from what Im used to, then again Lathum is always suspicious.

Someone said we had a person in the COT. Who is that an why?

Kwit is the duke.

[claphamsa]

Kwit is dead

[Lathum]

oops

[Lathum]

hence the trust

[claphamsa]

Originally Posted by Lathum

hence the trust

I could point out that I finally trust Heinze

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by claphamsa

I could point out that I finally trust Heinze

interesting that he is dead.

[Lathum]

McCollins, I see you hanging around. Care to explain your late vote switch?

[mccollins]

Originally Posted by Lathum

McCollins, I see you hanging around. Care to explain your late vote switch?

Honestly, it was this:

Originally Posted by Narcizo

Some interesting stuff going on to look at there. ...
...

which just turned out to be a wolf trying to force a lynch.

As I said here, it was the first day and I didn't think there was enough evidence of a wolf:

Originally Posted by mccollins

Either way, even with the good reasoning being done, I'm not sure how we'll figure one out. For now, I'm inclined to spread the vote out. If anyone doesn't really like that, I'll (hopefully) be able to read about it in the morning and consider a switch.

Indeed, we lynched a villager. Luckily, it led to one wolf.

[mccollins]

Originally Posted by mccollins

For the record, I think I'm going to play a quieter game this time and try to listen more. Ho hum.

Let me also take this opportunity to re-iterate that I'm trying to watch the process more this time. This game is waay different than the last. I don't recall this much analysis on the voting - we kvetched over where everyone said they went (even though we couldn't verify half of it!).

[path12]

Originally Posted by Lathum

I just read Brads Post.

I was 100% sure KWhit was the Duke.

I hinted there may be something going on but no way was I going to come right out and say it.

Regardless of the outcome it is a good thing to use his ability early, we get a cleared villager and can start a COT, no matter how small. The fact he got Narcizo is obviously a bonus.

I would be surprised if PAth, NTN, Pass and a few others didn't also realize it. Thats why I am surprised KWhit didn't get more votes.

I thought there was a chance he was the duke, but I wasn't as sure as you were. What I couldn't figure out was why the duke would want to come out day 1 when he's just taking a stab in the dark. I mean, yeah, you get trust by doing that but the fact he got a wolf was just lucky I think.

Only other thing about your analysis (and ntn is pinging my radar also) is the thing about ITC, who said after you first mentioned how quick he voted that he read the thread and then signed in. So I think that's not really an issue for me right now.

[path12]

Dola, I'm also reading quickly right now so I'll probably have other comments as the day goes along.

[path12]

Originally Posted by PurdueBrad

Path, here is what I thought or felt was odd about the vote. No late movement to save what-so-ever. Now we had a little less than half the players on but still, I expected more shifting. That felt weird to me. Now, I'm part to blame for that though because I wanted to stay on ntn and was probably being pointlessly stubborn..

That definitely was part of what felt wrong. I kept waiting for some sort of move and it just never happened.

[ImTheCrew]

ok im confused how many wolves are there?

[ImTheCrew]

nevermind finally read the rules! lol

[mccollins]

Originally Posted by ImTheCrew

nevermind finally read the rules! lol

And what did you find? I haven't found a hard number of the wolves. I just saw "X" number of wolves in the rules.

[ImTheCrew]

i found out there is not an exact number

[mccollins]

Ok good same here :-)

[hoopsguy]

Originally Posted by path12

That's still one of my favorite games of all time. I can't wait for the Silver Surfer to return!

Interesting - I was just thinking about when I might be able to squeeze in running a game. I've got most of it written ... just a matter of working out the personal life to where I can block out a couple of weeks.

And the Silver Surfer was pretty damn good in that game

[ntndeacon]

I am not at all surprised to be viewed much more carefully in this game than the last. and Irealize that late switch is a point against me seeing the result. But ifelt I had promised KWhit Iwould so I did. And this next part is going to make it more likely Iwont be believed but here goes. I did not catch Kwhit being a duke. It passed me right by. I also did not realize what the tie break was until after Imade the switch and saw it was tied between Kwit and Pass. I was more concerned about getting OUT of that tie. I can't even say that Iwas aware that iwould lose the tiebreak, since I did not realize this.

[ntndeacon]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Interesting - I was just thinking about when I might be able to squeeze in running a game. I've got most of it written ... just a matter of working out the personal life to where I can block out a couple of weeks.

And the Silver Surfer was pretty damn good in that game

That game was a hoot. I did not realize at the time how lucky it was to get all those with the ability to cheat death in that game. It helped out a lot.

[Lathum]

NTN has now surpassed hit post total from last game

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by mccollins

Honestly, it was this:

which just turned out to be a wolf trying to force a lynch.

As I said here, it was the first day and I didn't think there was enough evidence of a wolf:


Indeed, we lynched a villager. Luckily, it led to one wolf.

hmmm.

so why no switch to Pass then? Wouldn't that have made more sense if you felt kwhit was good?

[ntndeacon]

well that is what happens when Ipay attention. lol

[mccollins]

Originally Posted by Lathum

hmmm.

so why no switch to Pass then? Wouldn't that have made more sense if you felt kwhit was good?

Because I had no indication that either KWhit or Pass was good or bad and I certainly didn't want to break the tie with 5 minutes to go.

On that note, I didn't know the tiebreaker rule at first and I was thinking more would switch to NTN since it seemed that Heinz and PB were there to stay as well.

Path mentioned waiting for moves to happen that never did - I too figured there would be more shuffling and I thought more would join me rather than a 5-5-3 vote finish.

Of the 3, I was most comfortable with a vote on NTN because of the UTR game from last time - if he was / is a wolf, it seems it would be harder to figure him out.

[Lathum]

fair enough

[mccollins]

Lathum, help me out with some strategy - if you knew "100%" that KWhit was the Duke/Magistrate, then why would you want to lynch a villager?

Isn't it a bit early to try to Duke a wolf in the dark when KWhit would have had 15 to choose from?

[RendeR]

Well thus far nothing has really changed my opinion that Pass would still have been an excellent choice for the alpha to make.


VOTE PASSACAGLIA

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by mccollins

Lathum, help me out with some strategy - if you knew "100%" that KWhit was the Duke/Magistrate, then why would you want to lynch a villager?

Isn't it a bit early to try to Duke a wolf in the dark when KWhit would have had 15 to choose from?

As soon as KWhit started acting the way he did I knew he was the duke, it is safe to assume the wolves would know this also. It makes him a good candidate for a night kill.

As the duke I know I always try to get lynched day 1 so we can have a COT, what happens is the wolves will also usualy leave the duke alone at that point because thir usefullness has been exausted and they would rather go for a seer. That frees me up to play anyway I want with no fear of scrutiny.

Odds are a villager will be lynched either way, how often on day 1 do we actualy lynch a wolf? So might as well get the cleared guy out of the way and into the COT.

It's just bad luck that the wolf he fingered was the brutal wolf, but all in all a great trade off IMO.

KWhit made it obvious he wanted to be voted for, I just gave him what he wanted.

Does that make sense?

[Sonic Youth]

Originally Posted by Lathum

SY- total hit and run vote, very different from last game. I was toungue in cheek about why I think he would select Narcizo but I think it merits consideration.

I've been in pain all day at work, and later drifted in an out of sleep when I got home. I've done something to my leg, more specifically around my knee, the knee I had a reconstruction of the ACL about a year and a half ago. Thankfully this morning it's looking much better, and I'm crossing my fingers. All I did was step off it after going over a medium strip on a road. Very innocuous.

As to my vote. I didn't feel comfortable voting for Kwhit, as I'd break the tie, and that easily could have been me instead of Narkle that bit the dust. Much like I wasn't going to vote for Pass as there was a few who weren't coming back. Throw away it might have been, but surprisingly there was a lack of movement late on. I guess that falls to Kwhit there.

[Lathum]

Vote NTNDeacon

for reasons stated above.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by Sonic Youth

I've been in pain all day at work, and later drifted in an out of sleep when I got home. I've done something to my leg, more specifically around my knee, the knee I had a reconstruction of the ACL about a year and a half ago. Thankfully this morning it's looking much better, and I'm crossing my fingers. All I did was step off it after going over a medium strip on a road. Very innocuous.

As to my vote. I didn't feel comfortable voting for Kwhit, as I'd break the tie, and that easily could have been me instead of Narkle that bit the dust. Much like I wasn't going to vote for Pass as there was a few who weren't coming back. Throw away it might have been, but surprisingly there was a lack of movement late on. I guess that falls to Kwhit there.

maybe you injured yourself killing heinzy?

In all seriousness I hope you feel better, I have ankle and back problems and it's no fun.

[Sonic Youth]

Originally Posted by Lathum

maybe you injured yourself killing heinzy?

In all seriousness I hope you feel better, I have ankle and back problems and it's no fun.

Thanks. I was feeling sick i the stomach all day yesterday. I really hope today is much better, and it has started that way.

[ntndeacon]

Originally Posted by Lathum

Group 2- Voted Pass: path12 (136), render (163), thejackal (222), kwhit (242), ntndeacon (225)- I think it is likely there is at least one wolf here, if there is a group with multiple wolves I think it is here since the wolves wouldn't want Kwhit lynched. Of this group NTN's vote stinks. He unvoted Kwhit late and switched which makes it look like he is trying to prevent Kwhit from being lynched. The late run also makes it look like an attempt to keep Kwhit from using his power.Throw Kwit's vote out that leaves NTN and The Jackyl.


Group 3- Throwaways-purduebrad (75), jeheinz (194), mccollins all voted NTNDeacon. Of this group Mccollins made a late switch that was completely pointless. I can see this being a move if NTN and Mccollins are both wolves so that McCollins can come back later and claim he voted him. Heinze is dead and purduebrad made his vote and stuck it there. The fact that is was the first vote is suspicous considering the tiebreaker.



Right now I am leaning towards NTN.

Secondly would be sonic youth because he is playing so differently then last game and throw away votes early always raise my eyebrows.

OK feel free to tear me apart now.

All right here is Lathum's arguement. Since I unvoted late I had to want kwhit not voted out. ther truth is I did not care who was voted out except for me. iwanted to not be voted out. I figured the best way was to make a deal with KWhit saying I would move my vote if he moved his.Kwhit moved his so I moved mine. note I could have moved it onto anyone else and kept the tie between Kwhit and Pass, but instead voted Pass making him the one who was to be voted out. Note again Idid not care whether it was Pass or Kwhit voted out as long as it wasn't me. And sorry Lathum for not catching any clue from Kwhit that he was the magistrate/duke. I thought he was trying to get folks not to vote for him. Now I did think it was likely he could have some role, and I had not such Idea for Pass.

As for the UTR arguement. notice that hasn't been an issue this game. I do think that I was SO UTR last game due to not paying attention that an alpha would have been SCARED to pick me thinking that Iwould be rightly focused upon.

[ntndeacon]

And Sonic I hope you feel better as well.

[ntndeacon]

by the way the bolding in my first post of this trio is my doing in the quote from Lathum

[The Jackal]

i think i'm going to stick with my yesterday reasoning that pass seems a prime target for a wolf team ... certainly a moveable vote though

vote pass

[EagleFan]

vote Sonic Youth

Just testing a theory that was floated by someone earlier today. This may be a place holder but I wanted to get a vote in early to get things moving a little bit.

I've been a bit laid up on pain killers with a disc problem in my back that I aggrivated while getting stuff ready for our move this weekend or I would have been on a bit more last night.

I'll be cursing at the TV for the next couple hours during the Flyers game and will probably pop in and out during intermission.

[The Jackal]

go flyers

[ImTheCrew]

i think lathum is trying to cover-up

VOTE LATHUM

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by ntndeacon

All right here is Lathum's arguement. Since I unvoted late I had to want kwhit not voted out. ther truth is I did not care who was voted out except for me. iwanted to not be voted out. I figured the best way was to make a deal with KWhit saying I would move my vote if he moved his.Kwhit moved his so I moved mine. note I could have moved it onto anyone else and kept the tie between Kwhit and Pass, but instead voted Pass making him the one who was to be voted out. Note again Idid not care whether it was Pass or Kwhit voted out as long as it wasn't me. And sorry Lathum for not catching any clue from Kwhit that he was the magistrate/duke. I thought he was trying to get folks not to vote for him. Now I did think it was likely he could have some role, and I had not such Idea for Pass.

As for the UTR arguement. notice that hasn't been an issue this game. I do think that I was SO UTR last game due to not paying attention that an alpha would have been SCARED to pick me thinking that Iwould be rightly focused upon.

If I recall, I don't think you were that much in danger when you made that switch with KWhit. Maybe I'm biased, since it happened to me, pretty much right as I was getting into work. I'll look it up and report back -- I was thinking I'd do the research on this tomorrow morning, but I just remembered that tomorrow morning might be busy for me at work, and since I'm the leading vote getter, I might as well do it now.

Also, I think it's strange that you now say you had an idea that KWhit had a role. Why didn't you say anything like that in post 379? Something like, "I didn't think he was the duke, but I thought he might have been hinting at something." Instead, you said it passed you right by. Also, in post 379, you said that you weren't sure if you would lose the tiebreak, but I distinctly remember you knowing the tiebreak rules -- when me and KWhit were tied, you brought up that KWhit would get lynched. Maybe you were talking about when you were tied with someone -- again, I'll have to look that up.

Also, when I read the rules about the alpha wolf, I remember immediately thinking that you wouold be my first choice as a wolf, if I were the alpha. You may not be UTR in this game, but you often are, and it works -- you get the respect of a vet, but since no one expects you to be chatty anyway, no one gets weirded out that you're quiet.