WW LXXXVI - The Charmed Ones (Game Over - Innocents Win)

[hoopsguy]

Also, I'm not anticipating being on a whole heck of a lot between now and the deadline. So this vote is likely staying put.

[The Jackal]

Sorry I had to go upstairs and help prepare dinner. Having to choose between the three of you was tough for me. I wasn't prepared to put a nail in the coffin for RendeR, so I figured I'd provoke some movement.

[The Jackal]

Is anyone going on more than a feeling or self-defense? I know people have talked about why each person's vote might be worse than the other, but nothing really stands out horribly to me.

[Chubby]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

I think I may have the wrong horse in this race. This vote change was not calculated in advance, like my move yesterday. But if I'm picking up my signals from players correctly then I think Lathum is the likely wolf out of these two. I'm not going to clarify much more (yet) because I do not want to jeopardize people that I'm rapidly moving into my somewhat secret trust list.

UNVOTE RENDER
VOTE LATHUM

You are pretty high on my trusted list even tho I don't have anything concrete to go on for anyone.

That's fine if you don't want to explain your move but I don't see the logic. I'm not saying you're right or wrong because I really don't know any hard facts and suck at reading people.

I am comfortable with my vote and how it will affect my vote tomorrow providing I don't get night killed. I will be very interested to see why you switched especially considering (as you posted later than this) there probably won't be a lot of activity tonight (maybe that's wrong tho)

[The Jackal]

I'm asking the villagers that might be around, because if we do screw up this vote and lose another villager in the night phase, I think we're probably down to 5 with 2 wolves left, and that's not desirable.

[Chubby]

Originally Posted by The Jackal

Is anyone going on more than a feeling or self-defense? I know people have talked about why each person's vote might be worse than the other, but nothing really stands out horribly to me.

I'm not, like you said there's not a lot go on unless your roled and have inside info.

[The Jackal]

Right, and they must have good reason for not saying who they are, which means they likely haven't discovered anything. I imagine if the seer is still around tomorrow they'll come out, they'll be forced to really.. but hopefully they aren't killed before then.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by RendeR

Now lathum also threw a bone out there about jackal "IS he trying to protect render?" how is Jackal putting a second vote on lathum (and not tying the vote at all) protecting me? yes it brings us closer, but it doesn't actually help me in any way. I find this rather suspicious as it is a very simple way for him to cast two people under suspicion (or more so) and make himself appear better.

He cast a total hit and run vote with no reason, and by not voting you he helps you.

You dont think he should get a closer look based on some of his actions?

[The Jackal]

I just answered about why it was hit and run, Lathum, and why I didn't vote for RendeR. My vote isn't set but I don't have a reason to move it atm.

[PackerFanatic]

So by quick count, the vote is 5 - 3, Render over Lathum.

[PackerFanatic]

And evidently I can't count because we only have 7...

[PackerFanatic]

RendeR 4 - jeheinz72 (309), PackerFanatic (334), Lathum (346), Chubby (348)
Lathum 3 - Render (339), Jackal (345), hoopsguy (350)

This looks better - missed an unvote by Hoops.

[EagleFan]

As of post 362:

RendeR 4 - jeheinz72 (309), PackerFanatic (334), RendeR (346), Chubby (346)
Lathum 3 - RendeR (339), The Jackal (345), hoopsguy (350)

[hoopsguy]

Back, and interested to see how this one goes down. Kind of surprised not to see any other active players around at the moment.

[EagleFan]

3 minutes until deadline

[Chubby]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Back, and interested to see how this one goes down. Kind of surprised not to see any other active players around at the moment.

I've been off and on while the gf plays pokeman before her stupid tv show at 9 but there's not much to talk about IMO. Still waiting to hear while you switched tho...

[hoopsguy]

Pretty sure it is Lathum voting for RendeR, not RendeR voting for himself.

[hoopsguy]

Originally Posted by Chubby

I've been off and on while the gf plays pokeman before her stupid tv show at 9 but there's not much to talk about IMO. Still waiting to hear while you switched tho...

If RendeR ends up being a wolf, I'll spill it now. If not, I'll probably sit tight on the theory until right before the night deadline passes.

[EagleFan]

Sorry, that was supposed to say Lathum.

[EagleFan]

deadline

[Chubby]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

If RendeR ends up being a wolf, I'll spill it now. If not, I'll probably sit tight on the theory until right before the night deadline passes.

Which is fine. I just didn't see much point to moving when you don't think many people will be on/talking. if it's a move to see other's move/react I don't see much benefit, if it's to try and save RendeR then there's not much benefit if people aren't on. idk, maybe you see something i don't

[hoopsguy]

Normally I'm pretty damn chatty, but these thoughts are predicated on the actions of people that I think are villagers. Potentially villagers with roles. So I do not want to inadvertantly compromise them by connecting the dots, on the off chance that one of my theories actually is correct.

I was not so convinced that I was right that I felt compelled to push hard on it today to get a (sure) wolf. But I moved from being maybe 52/48 RendeR/Lathum this morning to about 40/60 when I moved the vote.

Anyway, I'll either reveal my busted theory in the next couple of minutes or else sit on my 'still in play' theory for another 110 minutes depending on results.

[Chubby]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Normally I'm pretty damn chatty, but these thoughts are predicated on the actions of people that I think are villagers. Potentially villagers with roles. So I do not want to inadvertantly compromise them by connecting the dots, on the off chance that one of my theories actually is correct.

I was not so convinced that I was right that I felt compelled to push hard on it today to get a (sure) wolf. But I moved from being maybe 52/48 RendeR/Lathum this morning to about 40/60 when I moved the vote.

Anyway, I'll either reveal my busted theory in the next couple of minutes or else sit on my 'still in play' theory for another 110 minutes depending on results.

Like I said, that's fine. I think part of the problem this game is those of us not in the know don't have anything to go off of, I'm reaching by looking at voting records (as I've said, not a huge fan of day 1 votes being meaningful) and trying to link people...

[EagleFan]

Accusations fly. There is an evil one still among us. One of you stands up and declares that he has narrowed it down. It must be either Lathum or RendeR. Mob mentality takes over, but it becomes quickly split between the two.

In a tightly contested vote it is decided upon that RendeR is the one who is responsible for what has happened the past couple days. If he dies we will be free!!!

The crowd forms and drags RendeR to the middle of the room. A hand is raised against him. As the first swing is taken at him you notice that it's not a him, it's a her. Either way this cross dresser must die. The crowd's fury reigns supreme against her until her body lies motionless and lifeless.

Who is this woman? How is she responsible for what has happened?

You begin to seach her for a clus, any clue. You find little to go on, just a license which reads Paige Matthews.


RendeR was Paige, a potential Charmed One in the waiting. Your terror continues.

[Chubby]

well that f'n sucks

[hoopsguy]

Bummer - will spill my thoughts right before deadline.

I suggested earlier that the identical voting patterns of Lathum/RendeR suggested one wolf and one villager. I still think this is the case, although it is obviously possible that both are villagers.

The wolves could have fun taunting me by killing Lathum tonight, I suppose But somehow I do not think that is going to happen ...

[RendeR]

I TOLD you you were wrong people =)

[PackerFanatic]

Fuuuuck...

[RendeR]

I didn't even get pissed off, THAT alone shoulda been a clue

[Lathum]

oops

[hoopsguy]

Also, upon further review Lathum's idea of a Day 2 tie would have been very bad for the village.

Tie = no lynch
Night = defenseless Chief Rum
Next day = Barkeep unleashes brutal on another villager as he goes down

Obviously this is results-oriented thinking if he turns out to be a villager, but I'm thinking his intentions as a wolf were to have the above scenario unfold.

[Lathum]

I dont like the way hoops is operating here.

[hoopsguy]

Lathum, if you are a villager then I'm keeping you alive overnight

Anyway, short of a seer declaring that you scanned as a villager I'm going to be voting for you tomorrow.

[The Jackal]

Not good.

[hoopsguy]

Mccollins, are you going to be able to play again one of these days?

[hoopsguy]

Originally Posted by Chubby

today vote RendeR

if good tomorrow vote heinz.
if bad trust heinz a lot more and look elsewhere (lathum)

that's my thought process right now as I think there's a wolf between render/heinz. not counting lathum out but he's not as on high on my baddie list as the other two right now.

Here is the post that tipped me to changing my vote. I'll lay out my scenario up to this point.


1.) PackerFanatic changed his vote from D1 to D2, moving from Rum to Barkeep and never deviating from this. He also posted that he trusted Rum's version of events. I believe him to be the seer.
2.) PackerFanatic appeared to trust Heinz today, saying that he thinks he is on the up and up. So I believe he scanned him last night. I did not pick up on this until re-reading posts later this afternoon.
3.) Jackal put the tying vote on Barkeep when he appeared to be in position to avoid a lynch on D2. So I trust him a fair amount. This is only enhanced by Lathum suggesting that Jackal is a bad guy based on his vote earlier today.
4.) I obviously trust myself - so these are the four people that I think are villagers at this point in the game.


I believed earlier that either (but probably not both) Lathum or RendeR were wolves, based on their identical votes that upon review were decidedly anti-village. I also believe that there are three wolves in the game.

In the quoted post above Chubby seems to set the stage for going after Heinz tomorrow when RendeR turns out to be a villager.


Anyway, this is how I think the game sits at this point in time. I may be drawing some bad conclusions ... guess we will find out tomorrow. But I think we have to go after Lathum with the lynch tomorrow unless the seer can reveal another player as a wolf. We can then determine if Chubby is the best option on the following day; right now I would lean in that direction but I'm less convinced about him than I am about Lathum.

OK, done typing this up at 9:46 PM so have to kill some time waiting to post this (twiddles thumbs).

[EagleFan]

deadline

[Lathum]

you are WAY off about me.

[hoopsguy]

Lathum, we'll have night kill in a minute. Care to start this conversation now prior to the night kill, on the off chance one of us is not around to finish it?

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Lathum, we'll have night kill in a minute. Care to start this conversation now prior to the night kill, on the off chance one of us is not around to finish it?

If there is a night kill I am in the clear...

[hoopsguy]

Why would there not be a night kill, given that there is not a bodyguard to block it?

[RendeR]

hurry up damnit EF =)

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Why would there not be a night kill, given that there is not a bodyguard to block it?

lets wait and see what happens

[EagleFan]

Everyone has a restless night. There seemed to be a lo of footsteps heard throughout the night. A gasp was heard, later footsteps followed by a thump, then the sound of running.

You wake, afraid of what you may find. Is everyone okay? Is everyone alive?

You count, no one is missing.... It's PackerFanatic, where is he. You begin to search. One of you soon yells "Over here!" You run to see what has been found.

Just outside of the back office you find PackerFanatic laying lifeless. His body begins to blur, it morphs into the shape of three females. There are now three bodies where one once laid. The Charmed Ones are dead!!! How can you survive now?

PackerFanatic was The Charmed One(s).

[hoopsguy]

Crap - was hoping that either Jackal or I would be the kill.

[hoopsguy]

VOTE LATHUM

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

VOTE LATHUM

why the hell would you make such a quick vote?

[Lathum]

something isn't right with the way hoops is playing, it is such a set up right now him coming out and voting like this

[RendeR]

DOOOOMED YOURS ALLLS DOOOOOOOMED

[hoopsguy]

Originally Posted by PackerFanatic

VOTE BARKEEP49

CR's reasons are to be pretty cut and dry to me.

Originally Posted by PackerFanatic

It would be interesting to hear if the seer actually did this, since this would greatly impact today's vote.

Originally Posted by PackerFanatic

Why does everyone keep saying that CR revealed before deadline? He threatened to reveal right before deadline, but then didn't actually do until almost 3 hours later (post #192), after all was said and done. Sure, I still don't know why he felt it important to reveal so early in the game, but that is his play and I believe him.

Originally Posted by PackerFanatic

Very quiet day, which is depressing...

I think Heinz is on the straight on narrow and I liked his and Hoops analysis of the Render/Lathum vote situation. So since I don't want to miss the vote tonight...

VOTE RENDER

This is a vote I am more than willing to move if the need arises.

Here are the PackerFanatic posts that suggest his scans (italics added by me):
N1: Chief Rum
N2: Heinz

So do not even think of voting for Heinz.

Lathum is going to suggest that he is the convert and has not been converted. However, if we are to believe this then we would have to accept that both wolves voted against Barkeep when he was in a tight run-off with Chief Rum on Day 2 (Chubby and Jackal). Nope, not the case. Other option is two wolves in 11 player game with uber-powerful good guy roles in The Three and Leo. Again, not the case. Three wolves.

Vote Lathum and vote Chubby. I would prefer to vote them in this order, but if other feel strongly about voting Chubby out first then I'll do what I need to do in order to make sure we get a wolf today. The wolves are going to have to vote together (at the end of the day, if not initially) to get their win. We can stop them if we vote together.