Bitcoin et al.

[SirFozzie]

Now, I'm no conspiracy theorist, but doesn't an article like this scream "leaked to make everyone go back to the old saw that "the only use for crypto is terrorist, so we need to restrict it?"

Now, I think it should be restricted, sure, but this seems a bit heavy.

[Hammer]

I certainly believe there needs to be further regulation. Most projects out there are a drain on the space, scammy and pointless. There is hacking going on, it's true. No idea who by. I notice the U.S. media is pretty horrific in the way they tend to come with the good guy/bad guy angle. They seem to love to stir up hatred in the population. The coverage I see of China in particular makes me cringe.

Gary Gensler understands the space inside out. He is some sort of government stooge at this point. He is saying what he is told that much is clear. He knows better. It makes him look like a fraud as there is so much material out there with his real opinions.

But the general media are clueless. Sadly they are ones spreading incorrect information that educates the population. They parrott what they hear and the misinformation spreads like a virus.

During this part of the cycle Bitcoin dominance tends to rise. This means it gains against the wider space whether it goes up or down. So risks outside of Bitcoin don't need to be taken at this point. Once Bitcoin dominance is super high, buying other projects with a small amount of Bitcoin may be a risk some want to consider as the risk reward is a different proposition.

I will say my prediction of a $20-$26k range over the next 3-4 months is something I feel less comfortable with now. Blackrock made a Bitcoin ETF application. I have my suspicions they are as thick and thieves with the government. Many have been turned down, I am not sure this one will be. The anticipation provides buying pressure. If this is approved price will explode to the upside. Typically this takes months for a decision.

One other thing I learned in the week. The U.S. government has around 200k Bitcoin. Around the same as China. Russia are also buying. There will only ever be around 14 million Bitcoin as much of the 21 million is lost. People who bought it early didn't look after it as they didn't realise what it would become. Only around 400k people, companies or corporations will ever own more than 1 Bitcoin. To me it seems some nations don't want their population to have any Bitcoin, yet want it as a government.

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by Edward64

An article this morning on what next for Celsius & Voyager customers. Essentially, a long and frustrating grind, likely ending up with very much less than what they hope for.

On one hand I feel bad for some because they were misled (e.g. Voyager saying they can weather the storm) but on the other hand, they must have known this was very risky and there were no guarantees.

... and the rest of the story (so far)

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/07/13/form...ettlement.html

Former Celsius CEO Alex Mashinsky was arrested by federal law enforcement Thursday, a source familiar with the matter told CNBC, as federal regulators announced his bankrupt crypto exchange Celsius would pay a $4.7 billion fine.

Federal prosecutors charged Mashinsky with securities, commodities, and wire fraud, as well as various securities manipulation and fraud charges. If convicted, Mashinsky and a co-defendant, Roni Cohen-Pavon, face decades in prison.

The settlement, announced by the FTC, will not be paid until the company is able to return what remains of customer assets in bankruptcy proceedings.

The concurrent SEC proceedings are against Mashinsky and Celsius, and allege that Mashinsky misled investors and fraudulently manipulated the price of Celsius’ exchange token, CEL.

[Edward64]

I don't know if he really did what he was accused of doing, but yeah, make up whatever evidence you need and toss him in jail.

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/07/28/sam-...utors-say.html

Federal prosecutors asked a judge to revoke FTX founder Sam Bankman-Fried’s bail in a Manhattan court filing Friday, claiming that the billionaire had violated the terms of the release and repeatedly tampered with witnesses.

“What the defendant may not do, and what he has now done repeatedly, is seek to corruptly influence witnesses and interfere with a fair trial through attempted public harassment and shaming,” prosecutors wrote.

If granted, the order from U.S. District Judge Lewis A. Kaplan would return Bankman-Fried to jail, months after his extradition from the Bahamas and ahead of his expected October trial. Bankman-Fried, whose crypto company sank into bankruptcy last year, faces multiple fraud and money laundering charges over his role in the implosion of the multibillion-dollar exchange.

[Brian Swartz]

Umm, what?

[Edward64]

Dry humor

[Hammer]

What amuses me is SBF sent over $70 million as political donations in the U.S.. We now know they were customer funds. No sign of those illegally sent donations being reimbursed to said customers.

Factor in the insider trading in politics. That is effectively stealing from the general public by using inside knowledge to beat the market

The lies and misdirection of this current administration is something to behold. I don't know if its true, but I recall hearing they were forcing you guys to get vaccinated or else you would lose your jobs. I heard on a podcast even now students have to be jabbed to go on campus. Hiding the risks of the vaccines from you guys...

Don't get me wrong I had mine, but at least it was an informed decision knowing the risks.

[sovereignstar v2]

gotta love crypto bros

[Swaggs]

Originally Posted by Hammer

I heard on a podcast even now students have to be jabbed to go on campus. Hiding the risks of the vaccines from you guys...

Don't get me wrong I had mine, but at least it was an informed decision knowing the risks.

This

[NobodyHere]

What were the risks from the vaccines that they were hiding?

[thesloppy]

Remind us how you actually lean left again.

[JPhillips]

Man you're going to be shocked at all the vaccines required for college students to step on campus.

[Hammer]

Originally Posted by thesloppy

Remind us how you actually lean left again.

You know UK left is a lot different I have learned. Your left is way more left, and right is way more right. Hence the division in your country

Almost getting to the point that there are 3 sets of people in the U.S. The wokists, Trumpers and the normies. I guess I would be a normie in the U.S. But left in the U.K.

Seems totally impossible to have a balance conversation with the woke or Trumpers. Most in those groups have the same opinions about everything. You know one you know them all.

Having played FOF for 20 years I can say it wasn't like this 20 years ago. It is like some crazy cult brain washing out of a movie. Team a vs team b. Of course the majority in the U.S. are still normal people but those triggered fringe loonies are surely going to cause a lot of drama before and after this 2024 election. A modern day civil war. Just this time it doesn't seem so obvious who is right and wrong.

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by Hammer

The lies and misdirection of this current administration is something to behold.

Honestly, I feel that I call out Joe when I think he's done something wrong but I wouldn't call them "lies". I do think there are "misdirection" but not anymore than what any administration would do.

However, your "something to behold" implies you think he does both more than Trump? If this is your belief, I just have to say that you are incorrect. Trump far outranks Joe and any other recent President.

See list & rationale from WaPo database below. Yes, you can claim WaPo is partisan and some of the 30K+ are questionable/open to interpretation, but at the end of the day, the list speaks for itself.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/graph...line_manual_11

I don't know if its true, but I recall hearing they were forcing you guys to get vaccinated or else you would lose your jobs. I heard on a podcast even now students have to be jabbed to go on campus.

The US government eventually required their employees to get vaccinated (including military). I can't remember of any State workers required (or at least not in Georgia e.g. my wife was a public school teacher).

There were some commercial companies (private & public) that also required vaccinations but far from all.

I don't know if there is an accurate %, but I'm going to use the 80-20 rule and say maybe 20% of all workers were "required" to get vaccinated. It definitely wasn't as authoritarian as I inferred from your statement.

Hiding the risks of the vaccines from you guys...

I'm on record saying if my wife/daughter were pregnant, I would not want them to be an early adopter. At the time, I called out a statement on CDC website that said it was safe for pregnancy. I did this because in the same website, there was wording about studies still ongoing on pregnancy & vaccination.

I think in retrospect, we can also say the risks to the young population (especially when compared to the older folks) was overstated. So not hiding the risks, but overstating them.

But your statement about "hiding the risks of the vaccines" is so overarching that it requires you to substantiate it.

[Ksyrup]

My job required people to get the vaccine and about 4 or 5 people left. Only one wasn't openly a political thing - a woman who was more about "clean living" and probably had a history of being anti-vaxx than it starting because of Covid. But in a 50 person office where the majority of people were over 60, I don't blame our management for making it a requirement. And of course, this was back when the first vaccine came out, not later on. Most people were already vaccinated so it wasn't much of a requirement.

As far as risks of the vaccine, what's happened is that the right flipped the script and equated any side effect or % of adverse reactions as a failure of the vaccine when in fact, ALL vaccines have risks and side effects. And then of course they flat out lied about "hundreds of athletes dying across the world" (the Stockton BS that Ive heard my parents talk about dozens of times), using unrelated video of people collapsing as "proof." I'm shocked the Hank Gathers video didn't get included...

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by Hammer

Having played FOF for 20 years I can say it wasn't like this 20 years ago. It is like some crazy cult brain washing out of a movie. Team a vs team b. Of course the majority in the U.S. are still normal people but those triggered fringe loonies are surely going to cause a lot of drama before and after this 2024 election. A modern day civil war. Just this time it doesn't seem so obvious who is right and wrong.

You couldn't be more wrong.

First off. I will acknowledge there are far left fringe people but not nearly in the numbers equaling MAGA, not even close. Majority on the left couldn't care less about trans in sports, etc...and certainly aren't having boat parades with Joe Biden flags flying everywhere,

This division is 100% on Trump and the GOP that has enabled him. He made this divisive rhetoric acceptable for 4 years and a major chunk of the GOP went along. Those that aren't openly MAGA are complicit because they go along with it. Anything you hear from virtually all of the left is in response to MAGA and the hatred that comes with it.

Trump is a criminal and is being treated as such. Anything else from the GOP is white noise. Most of them know it and would be done with him if it didn't mean complete destruction of their political career.

Those on the left want him gone because he is dangerous and bad for the country. We aren't on some crusade. We aren't the ones in a cult. Until you see millions of us wearing Biden T-shirts and waving flags you can say we're brainwashed, until then GTFO with your trash opinion.

[HerRealName]

When you say woke I just assume you want to say the n-slur or the f-slur instead.

[GrantDawg]

Originally Posted by HerRealName

When you say woke I just assume you want to say the n-slur or the f-slur instead.

That's a pretty good rule of thumb.

[flere-imsaho]

Everything Hammer posts makes me think he/she/they/it are posting from a different part of the multiverse.

[Lathum]

It is insane to me that anyone would try and break this down into a team A vs Team B thing. It is more like Russia-Ukraine. Democracy is under attack by MAGA and the GOP and the rest of us are trying to defend it.

Anyone who doesn't see it this way is either part of the MAGA movement or heavily influenced by right leaning media.

[NobodyHere]

Sam Bankman-Fried is sent to jail over alleged witness tampering | CNN Business

I wonder how the wi-fi in prison is.

[Kodos]

You definitely want to use a VPN in jail.

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by NobodyHere

Sam Bankman-Fried is sent to jail over alleged witness tampering | CNN Business

I wonder how the wi-fi in prison is.

Glad to hear. I assume it'll be a fancy prison though.

[Radii]

Has Binance blocked USD withdrawls? My bank info is no longer there. I withdrew about 60% of what I had on July 17th, only b/c I had a max withdrawl per day amount (lol??), and I spaced out and forgot to pull the rest out and just logged in today and it looks like I cannot..

[Edward64]

Good news for Bitcoin

The price of bitcoin surged Tuesday after the U.S. Court of Appeals for the DC Circuit ruled that the Securities and Exchange Commission was wrong to deny crypto investment giant Grayscale permission to convert its popular bitcoin trust into an ETF.

Bitcoin jumped about 7.5% following the ruling to $27,911.67, according to Coin Metrics. The move lifted cryptocurrencies broadly as well as crypto equities higher.

[NobodyHere]

Sam Bankman-Fried convicted in fraud and conspiracy trial, faces 110 years in prison

What's the over/under on how many years he'll be sentenced to?

I'm guessing 25 years.

[Edward64]

That was quick.

Hope he doesn't get Club Fed.

[albionmoonlight]

Originally Posted by Edward64

Hope he doesn't get Club Fed.

These give a sense of the sorts of things BOP looks at when making that determination.

He has a lot in his favor--no criminal history, no history of violence, etc.

The main driver for him will be sentence length. And his relative youth hurts him as well.

And this is also just guidance; it can always be overridden in either direction regardless of his score.

https://www.bop.gov/policy/progstat/5100_008.pdf

https://www.bop.gov/policy/forms/BP_A0338.pdf

[albionmoonlight]

dola:

Also one of the least surprising verdicts in a while. He continued to give interviews about his crime when he knew he was being investigated.

They let him stay out because he kept giving them evidence. They finally arrested him in early December, and I honestly believe it was because they wanted to not have to deal with it over Christmas, and he had given them so much stuff that he literally could not incriminate himself any more.

[Edward64]

Thanks. Good to see there is a methodology/process.

Looking through the form, seems like he would score "low" in those categories except possibly for "Severity of Current Offense (Appendix A)".

I looked at Appendix A (pg 97) and looks like it'll be "Moderate Severity" for

Property Offenses - over $250,000, includes theft, fraud, tax evasion,
forgery, currency offenses

How is the "scoring" done? Prosecution only, Judge only or a combination?

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by albionmoonlight

dola:

Also one of the least surprising verdicts in a while. He continued to give interviews about his crime when he knew he was being investigated.

They let him stay out because he kept giving them evidence. They finally arrested him in early December, and I honestly believe it was because they wanted to not have to deal with it over Christmas, and he had given them so much stuff that he literally could not incriminate himself any more.

Including trying to intimidate a witness (aka former girlfriend).

Hubris.

[albionmoonlight]

It is done by Bureau of Prisons.

The judge can recommend a placement, but it is not binding. Though I find that in practice it is generally followed.

And there are certain things (like placement within a reasonable distance from your home) that the law also requires BOP to consider.

But the law in this area is very careful to give BOP final discretion to make the decisions so it can minimize things like overcrowding or make sure that certain inmates with a history aren't put together (prevent gang fights, etc.)

And his case is high profile enough that he will likely get special treatment one way or the other.

[albionmoonlight]

dola: Like Bernie Madoff ended up in a medium, which was because of the seriousness of his crime but was also (IMO) because they didn't want to get the bad press of putting him in a Club Fed.

So SBF might get that treatment as well, at least until we've all forgotten about him.

[GrantDawg]

All hubris. He is the classic crypto-bro. They just know they are smarter than anyone else, and he was positive he could outthink the civil servants who were prosecuting him.

Sent from my SM-S916U using Tapatalk

[NobodyHere]

Originally Posted by albionmoonlight

dola: Like Bernie Madoff ended up in a medium, which was because of the seriousness of his crime but was also (IMO) because they didn't want to get the bad press of putting him in a Club Fed.

So SBF might get that treatment as well, at least until we've all forgotten about him.

I think length of sentence helps determine if you get sent to club fed or not. They are generally minimum security and the longer your sentence the more you are deemed a flight risk.

He could probably apply to get transferred to one when he has 5 years or so left on his sentence.

[flere-imsaho]

Originally Posted by albionmoonlight

Also one of the least surprising verdicts in a while.

I suspect they did a straw poll, realized everyone thought he was guilty on all counts, but delayed doing the final certification because they wanted to have dinner first. Which is very fair.

He continued to give interviews about his crime when he knew he was being investigated.

Yeah, I love how the prosecution had receipts for everything.

"Do you recall saying 'XXXX'?"

"Not really."

"Here's you saying 'XXXX' on CNN."

[Edward64]

And there we have it ...

Going to have to buy some for the long term.

SEC approves spot bitcoin ETFs for trade starting Thursday

[JPhillips]

Didn't the SEC come out and say that wasn't accurate?

[Edward64]

That was yesterday. It’s real now.

[Edward64]

Welp, made my first foray into the new Bitcoin world.

Bought a little Fidelity FBTC and will add to it over the next several months. Expense ratio is like .25 so somewhat reasonable.

Fidelity popped up with a questionnaire on the type of investor I was. I had to select "most aggressive".

[Kodos]

Hammer-time!

[NobodyHere]

It's definitely too high for me to buy into right now. Maybe if it dips below $20k again and then I'll consider throwing some play money at it.

[sovereignstar v2]

I lol every time this thread gets bumped

[NobodyHere]

Originally Posted by Kodos

Hammer-time!

Whatever happened to that guy?

[Kodos]

He seems to pop in and pop out.

[Hammer]

Originally Posted by NobodyHere

Whatever happened to that guy?

Still alive and kicking. If things play out as expected I should be retired at 49 in 2025. Looking good so far. This thread is turning in to gold looking back. The cycle just seems to play out the same every time. The higher the price goes the more the fomo kicks in. The low price promote fear and opportunity for those who recognise it for what it is.
Congrats to those of you who ignored the masses and got in last Christmas. I have sold just enough to take back my initial stake now. As the fomo rises the more I will sell. Planning to be all out by Spring 2025.

I don't expect Bitcoin to do much for several months now, maybe 6 or so. It is up 3x now. Probably got another 2x in it, but I think the bulk of the move has played out now. Eth is play for the next month or two. The speculation for the ETH spot ETF. What Blackrock wants, Blackrock gets. 575-1.

Then next summer it is Alt season, and I am playing with house money. Can't wait.

Don't forget to wear your masks, that mind virus is dangerous.

[Hammer]

Originally Posted by NobodyHere

It's definitely too high for me to buy into right now. Maybe if it dips below $20k again and then I'll consider throwing some play money at it.

Classic. Thing is you wouldn't. Not that you will see that price unless a nuclear war breaks out. You had that chance. If Bitcoin went that low you would listen to the media and your echo chamber. Just like 99% did when the sub $20k prices arose. Very few have the conviction and confidence to jump in when the market is in meltdown. But that is exactly the moment you make real money.

[sovereignstar v2]

There are probably 100 new crypto scams each day. This one caught my attention recently:

https://www.cnn.com/2024/01/24/us/co...cec/index.html

[Swaggs]

I understand how people are making (and losing) money off of this, but to me, it is still currency speculation and there is plenty of research as to how that typically plays out over time.

[sovereignstar v2]

So dumb

Over 2 percent of the US’s electricity generation now goes to bitcoin | Ars Technica