Werewolf CXXX - Rudyard Kipling's The Jungle Book - SEEONEE WOLF PACK WINS!

[mckerney]

Originally Posted by EagleFan

Some things still don't make sense and I think that may be their goal moreso than any results.

As someone said, maybe we should leave Zinto and PF for the seer for the moment at least.

The only way a tie would make sense is if they knew the tie break mechanic and that both of the targets were wolves (and at the time Lathum hadn't made his JAG vote). But that would still not look good with the heat a move like that would put on them.

(sorry, just trying to think aloud)

I won't be voting for either PackerFanatic or Zinto today, and there are probably better candidates for the seer even. All I see to go on is that Kaa probably caused a tie, which I don't think would happen if either of the two on the block were wolves. Unless I missed something I don't see anything else that could change the vote, and only the duke could change the lynch other than Kaa is the duke, which the result didn't seem to indicate and seems like an unlikely day one move.

[Autumn]

Originally Posted by Narcizo

Also replying to me. Is he making an excuse for prevaricating and there's a wolf on the block that he doesn't want to vote for or against? Doubtful, I think this is probably just padding. But I would be interested in hearing what Autumn saw that made him suspicious of JAG.

First-level read is that JAG is laying groundwork for suspicions on Lathum. Usually first-level reads are the right ones so that means I'm slighly happier than neutral about Lathum. With the usual catch-all "Lathum is an experienced and clever wolfie etc etc" tacked on the end so I won't be putting undue trust in Lathum as a result.

What pinged me on JAG was nothing specific. In fact, just that. Read through those posts you had and 99% of it is just vague discussion about feelings. As a villager JAG is usually pretty quiet early and then comes out with laser-focused analysis on players. The fact that he was putting out so much hot air clued me in on him.

And his comments about Lathum actually made me more second-level suspicious of Lathum. The fact that he immediately soft-pedaled his criticism, sounded like JAG was trying to get the first critique of Lathum's move out and then soften it, to direct the response to Lathum's move.

It's not enough to make me hound him (you're welcome Lathum), but it did stand out to me.

[Autumn]

It seems people are fairly set on looking at the results as "wolves forced a tie." But I'm not sure we can assume that at all. I think it's just as valid to look at it as "wolves trying to prevent a PF lynch." We have no idea when the order was sent in. It may have been early enough before deadline that they were worried about a lynch. It turns out to be a tie, which screws them, but then they get to sit back and sigh in relief as the village makes false assumptions, particularly if they're ones that clear PF.

I'm not going to vote PF, for reasons stated earlier, but I sure hope we get a scan of him.

[Thomkal]

Originally Posted by Narcizo

So that pretty much confirms that Kaa shifted the vote from Packer to Zinto. And it looks likely that there was a random chance of both Packer and Zinto being lynched but that didn't happen. Then it seems the lynch of JAG was random, although there's still a chance that it was the next-most votes.

I don't think the actual mechanic is important in analysis though - it's the wolves' perception of the mechanic that is important. If they thought that there was a risk that the tied vote would hit JAG as the third leading votee then it seems unlikely that Lathum is a wolf. I don't see any reason why they would think that though. So I don't think much can be read into that.

doing a catchup here, so apologies if this has been covered-I don't think it was necessairly a random roll here-JAG was third in the votes right? So the tie rule could be if there is a tie, the person with the next highest amount of votes gets lynched. Or it could have been a random die roll with the top 3 and JAG was the unlucky one (or lucky one for us depending on how you look at it). The mod mentioned in the rules that ties could go to someone besides the tied people, so if I were a wolf, I would have made sure there's wasn't a wolf in third place just in case. So we should keep an eye on who's in third place with any future ties.

[Thomkal]

Originally Posted by Lathum

I need to look through Autumns posts from yesterday, but it was his interaction with JAG yesterday that pinged me on JAG. It was almost as if he was trying to steer a scan towards JAG.

I'll have to go back and look when I have time

I too had this thought going back and looking at Autumn's post where he said he had a feeling about JAG. Was JAG ever in danger of being voted out yesterday? tied or one back at any point? Might be worth going back and seeing what kind of movement took place after that if there was cause there's no way the wolves would let their cunning go easily.

[bhlloy]

Originally Posted by Narcizo

The thing is it didn't have to be a two-vote gap - one gap would do it for a tie as the wolves could just have moved (for example) MrBug's vote to Zinto to get a tie.

Yeah valid point. It's probably somewhat unlikely that a wolf puts a back to back vote on a villager like that anyway. Discussion is good though right?

EF - I understand everyone gets defensive but don't make more of it than it is. If I'm wrong in my analysis I'm wrong in my analysis (it was 2am in the morning) but to try and present it like I'm changing my story is wrong. I was asked to explain my comment and I did.

[Autumn]

Originally Posted by Thomkal

I too had this thought going back and looking at Autumn's post where he said he had a feeling about JAG. Was JAG ever in danger of being voted out yesterday? tied or one back at any point? Might be worth going back and seeing what kind of movement took place after that if there was cause there's no way the wolves would let their cunning go easily.

I don't think JAG was ever remotely in danger. I was the second vote on him. And I dont' think anyone followed until Lathum at the end, and I was already off of him by then.

[Thomkal]

Originally Posted by EagleFan

Not sure why you would call the Lathum vote a key vote. It may have been but without being certain about the tie break mechanic we still don't know for certain.

Can CF clarify that the next highest vote getter goes or is this still a mystery?



The logic here doesn't seem quite right. If the wolves wanted a tie why not just have it be a tie instead of using the vote change mechanic? I'll have to see what time the vote changes were made that set that up to see if it is possible that the goal was to lynch Zinto and setup PF.

Kaa has to get his vote change in before lynch deadline according to the rules I believe, so its likely given our propensity for just before deadline vote changes-he/she felt this was the safer way to get a tie. Now why the wolves would waste the vote change power (only can use it twice) on day 1 between two villagers is another question.

[hoopsguy]

Originally Posted by Autumn

It seems people are fairly set on looking at the results as "wolves forced a tie." But I'm not sure we can assume that at all. I think it's just as valid to look at it as "wolves trying to prevent a PF lynch." We have no idea when the order was sent in. It may have been early enough before deadline that they were worried about a lynch. It turns out to be a tie, which screws them, but then they get to sit back and sigh in relief as the village makes false assumptions, particularly if they're ones that clear PF.

I'm not going to vote PF, for reasons stated earlier, but I sure hope we get a scan of him.

We are 100% on the same page here.

[Thomkal]

I actually think there is some value for a PackerFanatic vote today-if he gets lynched and he's a wolf, we learn a lot about the day 1 vote and we become suspicious of those saying we shouldn't be voting for him today. If he's a villager, we see who was trying to push for a Packer vote on both days and go after him/her. But the late vote switch JAG did to him gives me pause. (thanks Narcizo for that great summary of the vote). Would a wolf, even the cunning wolf, put Packer in that much danger of being lynched when they knew they had Kaa's vote change power available?

[dwardzala]

Originally Posted by Narcizo

So to get a vote in. At the moment I have a bunch of people I feel better than average about but no-one I feel worse than average about. I suspect Gonzo is going to get a bunch of votes today but my instincts say that someone checking in and then going missing points to a vanilla villager.

Looking at quiet players again and based on the post count I get Dwardzala as next lowest to Gonzo. I don't think anyone has any idea about what you'd think his play-style is which means it will be tough to get a read on him. That'll make it very easy for him to glide through the game.

Vote dwardzala

(Very) open to change.

Shy players may make easy targets, but you certainly don't gain a lot of info on the vote (but you will get an early post out of me). This vote is purely self defense:

Vote PF

[EagleFan]

My guess is that it one of them is a wolf it would be PF. There would be no sense in making the vote switch to Zinto if he was a wolf.

It would make sense to use it to save PF if he was a wolf. He was about to be lynched anyway so it could buy them a villager lynch if the tie mechanic worked out well for them. PF would end up being a wasted day 2 lynch vote in that case and they would still be down one wolf but would have put it off a day and gained a village lynch and potentially gained trust for the cunning.

With that said, we may way to go a different way today to see what else we can find out.


I am going on a hunch here based on the vote and leave it there approach which gives me either mrbug or Thomkal to look at. Maybe we should bring them up today to see which way the winds blow.

vote mrbug

[MrBug708]

A lot of info to digest, but it is good to see my initial vote was correct, though it was admittedly luck as for obvious reasons

[bhlloy]

Looking at the Zinto voters this was the only guy who moved over late and stayed there, quickly followed by PF. If Autumn's theory about the tie vote being a mechanism to save PF and not force a tie for the sake of it, I think this is a direction to explore

Vote J23

[EagleFan]

Originally Posted by MrBug708

A lot of info to digest, but it is good to see my initial vote was correct, though it was admittedly luck as for obvious reasons

This actually makes me feel better about my vote today. It always pings me when someone feels the need to mention that their vote was correct on a day one vote, especially an early day one vote.

[MrBug708]

Originally Posted by EagleFan

This actually makes me feel better about my vote today. It always pings me when someone feels the need to mention that their vote was correct on a day one vote, especially an early day one vote.

Why wouldn't I bring it up?

[Narcizo]

Yeah, there is information available from a Packer lynch and my immediate response after reading what went down was to vote Packer as it seemed so damning of him. (well, actually, my first response was to vote Zinto because I completely confused what went on). And, yes, if the wolves have this power you might as well use it if there's a wolf on the block. But why does Jag put his vote on Packer? Maybe he forgets that Zinto can still switch his vote so he thinks that Packer might be safe with the switch. The wolves have got to figure that Packer's days are numbered after this go downs (whether it be a lynch or a scan) but then JAG will come up looking good for moving his vote onto a wolf. Dunno though.

Kind of uncomfortable that two people (hoops and Autumn) who are among those more likely to be scanned early on are pushing so hard for a scan somewhere else. And if Packer is a villager I wouldn't be surprised to see him night killed to waste a scan.

Maybe lynching Packer would be the way forward after all.

[Autumn]

That makes sense to me, Bhlloy. J23 and EF were key suspicious votes if PF turns out to be a bad guy. EF so far has struck me as playing his normal game, one which used to always make me suspicious of him, but now I realize is just what he does. Doesn't mean he's not bad, but at least he's giving us content to work with. I'll go with J23 as well.

VOTE J23

[Narcizo]

EagleFan, voting mrBug looks like as bad a vote as voting Zinto. We're playing percentages now and while his vote on the cunning doesn't completely clear mrBug, surely it makes it more likely that there are better candidates out there today?

[Autumn]

Originally Posted by Narcizo

Kind of uncomfortable that two people (hoops and Autumn) who are among those more likely to be scanned early on are pushing so hard for a scan somewhere else. And if Packer is a villager I wouldn't be surprised to see him night killed to waste a scan.

Why would I be likely to be scanned early on?

I love Werewolf, only here could being one of the only people who was right day one make you suspicious!

[Narcizo]

Originally Posted by Narcizo

Kind of uncomfortable that two people (hoops and Autumn) who are among those more likely to be scanned early on are pushing so hard for a scan somewhere else than on themselves

I mean. Just to clarify. In other words a wolf hoops or a wolf Autumn would have a lot to gain by getting the seer to scan somewhere else.

[Narcizo]

Originally Posted by dwardzala

Shy players may make easy targets, but you certainly don't gain a lot of info on the vote (but you will get an early post out of me). This vote is purely self defense:

Vote PF

A self-defence vote after just one vote put on you seems a bit excessive. :shurg:

[J23]

I advocated scanning PF, but am just as happy to be scanned myself. I just think a scan on PF can clear up the day 1 voting a lot better.

If PF comes up a wolf, I would certainly look a bit worse for moving Zinto up closer to PF. As I said when I posted my vote yesterday, I wanted a tighter race so we could see the voting movement and try to gain something from it. I was content to let it ride so to speak since I didn't really have any leaning between any of the leading candidates.

I'm really not sure how to respond to the current votes on me. I'm being condemned for apparently trying to save a potential wolf? I guess I'm sorry I didn't move my vote off one unknown onto a different unknown in the last 30 minutes before deadline, or something.

[hoopsguy]

I've given up the "scan me, no don't scan me" stuff in these threads. Obviously a seer is free to dial me up whenever they want. I do make suggestions on where I think a seer scan should go in terms of helping make sense of the game.

It would be much more convenient if I was the seer every game But seriously, I just want to have some understanding of the Day 1 maneuvers and if we aren't going to get it by lynchings then it has to come from the seer.

[MrBug708]

Originally Posted by Autumn

Why would I be likely to be scanned early on?

I love Werewolf, only here could being one of the only people who was right day one make you suspicious!

As one of the accused,

Co-Signed

[hoopsguy]

I do think we need to make a decision sooner or later on where we are going with the voting today - revisiting yesterday or going with fresh candidates. I'm more or less OK with either, but don't see a lot of value in "meh, everyone do their own thing"

[EagleFan]

Quick thoughts before I step out for lunch...

Zinto - have a better feeling about him, though it is still not strong but it will be stronger if PF is a villager

PF - leaning towards wolf with him, though it could have been a play where the wolves didn't care which of the two were lynched. Though he could be the one that made the vote change which would make it more important to use it yesterday so they didn't waste the power

J23 - Still uncertain, some day one things bug me about him

mrbug - I am not sold on him; the percentages are not in his favor with hit and run votes; his vote on JAG doesn't clear him in my eyes

Thomkal - Another hit and run voter, see mrbug's explanation (minus the JAG part)

Lathum - His day one voting made no sense, regardless of the outcome. He should seriously be a scan target to clear up that question

Gonzo - MIA, not a good thing


They are the people that stand out at the moment.

[hoopsguy]

The lack of discussion here is giving me more confidence to place this vote.

We'll learn a lot from lynching him, both about the Day 1 vote and the people who've been positioning in the thread so far this morning. More than any other candidate, barring a sure-fire wolf, in my mind.

VOTE PACKERFANATIC

[Zinto]

Originally Posted by CrimsonFox

[ATTACH]2692[/ATTACH
"Hang them all! They want us to protect a man's cub. Man cub's are evil! Kill them both!" shouts the same voice as before.

"No! No! That's not fair!" says a small brown figure, "Man cubs must be eaten! Kill them both."

This is what caught my attention in the write up to think that both PF and I are villagers, while it could have been added on for flavor I think it is best to move away from Packer today and see what we can dig up.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by Autumn

Just going with my gut here. I like that we've had a fair bit of action so far. JAG has pinged my JAGdar, which is saying something, as I hate to vote him. He can win the game himself as a villager.

This is the comment by Autumn that stood out

[MrBug708]

Originally Posted by EagleFan

Quick thoughts before I step out for lunch...

Zinto - have a better feeling about him, though it is still not strong but it will be stronger if PF is a villager

PF - leaning towards wolf with him, though it could have been a play where the wolves didn't care which of the two were lynched. Though he could be the one that made the vote change which would make it more important to use it yesterday so they didn't waste the power

J23 - Still uncertain, some day one things bug me about him

mrbug - I am not sold on him; the percentages are not in his favor with hit and run votes; his vote on JAG doesn't clear him in my eyes

Thomkal - Another hit and run voter, see mrbug's explanation (minus the JAG part)

Lathum - His day one voting made no sense, regardless of the outcome. He should seriously be a scan target to clear up that question

Gonzo - MIA, not a good thing


They are the people that stand out at the moment.

You must really hate me

As for a hit and run vote, I didn't see the need to jump on another poster for the sake of it. Can you imagine the target on my back had I moved my vote at the last minute and JAG was revealed as a bad guy anyways? You'd be singing the same thing only how suspicious my last minute switch was

[Autumn]

That's just how I felt, Lathum. I ordinarily would never vote JAG early in a game, just for the hell of it. I think he's so good as a villager, it's not worth chancing him getting lynched. However, I do think I'm pretty good at catching him as a wolf, evidenced here and in the last couple games he was a wolf. I find him easy to read.

[bhlloy]

I'm pretty comfortable with going in the direction of PF today also. I think the link that Zinto is making is pretty tenuous at best and I can't see CF giving out details like that on purpose in the write up.

In terms of learning most about day 1, that might be the best way to go. More candidates early is good in terms of learning things, so I'm going to stick with J23 for now

[Thomkal]

Originally Posted by Zinto

This is what caught my attention in the write up to think that both PF and I are villagers, while it could have been added on for flavor I think it is best to move away from Packer today and see what we can dig up.

Zinto,

CF specifically said he would use players names and situations in his writeups, but that it meant nothing-it's only flavor (and good roleplaying flavor at that.) Nothing should be read into what he says here.

[PackerFanatic]

The only thing you will learn from me is that I am a villager - which I suppose, in the long run, could be very helpful to the cause. I guess I am willing to take one for the team if that is the way to go. I don't have much defense at this point, as most of my moves yesterday were in self-defense and I have been talking too much for my own good it seems

[PackerFanatic]

And with the way the wolves worked the night, they were definitely trying to paint me bad. Why, I am not really sure.

[Zinto]

Originally Posted by Thomkal

Zinto,

CF specifically said he would use players names and situations in his writeups, but that it meant nothing-it's only flavor (and good roleplaying flavor at that.) Nothing should be read into what he says here.

I remember reading that now but for some reason I thought it only had to do with characters names. Regardless I believe we should be moving away from Packer for today.

Also I think Mr. Bug while his vote was on a lame duck candidate for most of the day is not a good place to look either for today since that person turned out to be a wolf and that first vote on day one can start a bad chain reaction.

[Thomkal]

Originally Posted by EagleFan

Quick thoughts before I step out for lunch...

Zinto - have a better feeling about him, though it is still not strong but it will be stronger if PF is a villager

PF - leaning towards wolf with him, though it could have been a play where the wolves didn't care which of the two were lynched. Though he could be the one that made the vote change which would make it more important to use it yesterday so they didn't waste the power

J23 - Still uncertain, some day one things bug me about him

mrbug - I am not sold on him; the percentages are not in his favor with hit and run votes; his vote on JAG doesn't clear him in my eyes

Thomkal - Another hit and run voter, see mrbug's explanation (minus the JAG part)

Lathum - His day one voting made no sense, regardless of the outcome. He should seriously be a scan target to clear up that question

Gonzo - MIA, not a good thing


They are the people that stand out at the moment.

I get the point here Eaglefan-a wolf staying out of the late lynch battle is less likely to draw attention to himself. But think about it-I'm the only such person to leave their vote on a player not up for the lynch at some point during the day (well maybe very early on he was). I stick out like a sore thumb as a result. Do I really do that as a wolf when I had a large chunk of the day to bury my vote on one of the leaders and not look the least bit suspicious in doing so? You're barking up the wrong tree here and honestly you are beginning to sound like a wolf who is trying to find some villager to get some traction on because that's all I am, a villager.

[Lathum]

Vote Autumn

having a hard time shaking the feeling he was trying to steer a scan towards Jag

[Thomkal]

Originally Posted by PackerFanatic

And with the way the wolves worked the night, they were definitely trying to paint me bad. Why, I am not really sure.

The only thing I can think of if you are not a wolf Packer is that they wanted the seer to waste a view on you. Not a total waste of course, but better he/she be forced by the voting situation last night to use it on you rather than a shot in the dark that nets another wolf.

[Telle]

Originally Posted by bhlloy

Looking at the Zinto voters this was the only guy who moved over late and stayed there, quickly followed by PF. If Autumn's theory about the tie vote being a mechanism to save PF and not force a tie for the sake of it, I think this is a direction to explore

Vote J23

This makes no sense. If you think PF is a wolf, then vote for him. You're basically saying "well if player X is a wolf then player Y could be a wolf too, so I'm going to ignore player X and vote for player Y." You're going from speculation to speculation based on speculation. And quite frankly, the fact that Autumn agreed with your line of thinking is just baffling.

Now, if we end up lynching PackerFanatic and if he's a wolf, then by all means follow the clues to J23 being a likely candidate for the next lynch. But it looks to me like you're putting the cart before the horse here.

[Autumn]

Heh, we're doing this again, Lathum? lol

[PackerFanatic]

Originally Posted by PackerFanatic

And with the way the wolves worked the night, they were definitely trying to paint me bad. Why, I am not really sure.

Answering my own (rhetorical) question...they know Zinto and I are good, so rather than guarantee my demise, they setup the tie and hope to get another villager with the mechanic (bummer for them here). The tie makes it look like I was saved, since I was the one in the lead and was the biggest benefactor of the tie. But we already know all this. Just getting it all straight in my head.

[EagleFan]

Do we have a vote count?

[mckerney]

Originally Posted by Narcizo

EagleFan, voting mrBug looks like as bad a vote as voting Zinto. We're playing percentages now and while his vote on the cunning doesn't completely clear mrBug, surely it makes it more likely that there are better candidates out there today?

I disagree with your premise here, I think it is pretty clear Zinto is a villager so a vote for mrbug isn't in the same ballpark. I'm not about to vote for Bug myself, but a wolf voting for another wolf day one and leaving it there if it looks like they're safe a decent wolf play to have a good voting record if who they voted for is caught. I'd even say the same about my vote on him being a decent reason for suspicion, though not Lathum's. Unless Kaa was acting alone (or we have a better explanation for what happened with the vote) it is not the type of move a wolf would make putting the cunning in danger by making him the lone 3rd candidate.

[Autumn]

Originally Posted by Telle

This makes no sense. If you think PF is a wolf, then vote for him. You're basically saying "well if player X is a wolf then player Y could be a wolf too, so I'm going to ignore player X and vote for player Y." You're going from speculation to speculation based on speculation. And quite frankly, the fact that Autumn agreed with your line of thinking is just baffling.

Now, if we end up lynching PackerFanatic and if he's a wolf, then by all means follow the clues to J23 being a likely candidate for the next lynch. But it looks to me like you're putting the cart before the horse here.

I can't speak for him, but I'm deliberately putting the cart before the horse. The philosophy I've tried to use the last few games as a villager, is to avoid recycling the same candidates over and over. We lose a lot of games by running around the same three for four days before finding out we were just chasing villagers.

So I think we look at what's suspicious in the voting and bark up that tree. Statistically we get a better chance of having a wolf show up in the voting record, and it gives us several avenues to follow as more information comes to light.

[PackerFanatic]

PF, J23, dwardzala, mrbug, Autumn 2 - 2 - 1 - 1 - 1

[Telle]

Votes as of post #394:

1 - dwardzala - Narcizo (322)
3 - PackerFanatic - mauboy (335), dwardzala (361), hoopsguy (378)
1 - MrBug - EagleFan (362)
2 - J23 - bhlloy (364), Autumn (368)
1 - Autumn - Lathum (389)

[PackerFanatic]

Missed hoops vote in my count. Sorry about that

[EagleFan]

unvote mrbug

vote J23