WW - The Princess Bride (Game Over - Wolves Win)

[Telle]

Votes as of post #350:

3 - MrBug - Autumn (268), Chief Rum (328), PackerFanatic (334)
2 - The Jackal - mauboy (277), MrBug (344)
1 - ntndeacon - Narcizo (305)
1 - Chief Rum - ntndeacon (311)
1 - PackerFanatic - Passacaglia (349)

[Narcizo]

Originally Posted by PackerFanatic

I think it's hard to really tell what was happening with the late votes yesterday, given that both ended up being villagers. And I think the wolves know that, hence why they made the seemingly gutsy call. As I said last night, they were more for us wasting a day of history than anything it seems.

That makes no sense. By killing Bhlloy they're revealing that it was villager-villager. They're giving us extra information rather than killing JAG or Danny or one of the other usual suspects, which would tell us a lot less. If Bhlloy hadn't been a lot of the focus today would be on whether people were saving Bhlloy and I'm pretty confident he would be a lynch candidate today as well.

Killing because he's a likely scan candidate is possible depending on who the wolves are but not a move I'd advocate as a wolf. If you think Westley is going to scan Bhlloy then I'd leave him alive and hope that Westley tips his hand trying to save him from a lynch today.

I think the likely reasons are that the wolves read him as having a role with the possibility that it was meant to cover a wolf moving their vote onto Darth. I guess there's a chance that it means the wolves bloc-voted on Darth for some reason but I kind of think that's stretching things.

[JAG]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

My pet theory is that the wolves killed bhlloy to basically turn our vote on Day One into utterly meaninglessness. By showing bhlloy is a villager right away, we basically have another Day One in store for us on Day Two.

This could be just to do just that--or it's possible that a wolf made a key vote in this one, and they don't want us to look at the voting at all for Day One.

I think you hit on it in the second paragraph. In general, wouldn't the wolves have wanted us to chase the idea that bhlloy was a wolf and not find out for however long it took? If they had a late vote on DV where it would have looked like they were 'saving' bhlloy, possibly someone who has an important wolf role, revealing bhlloy to be good would take some heat off them.

[JAG]

Alright, I'm out for a while.

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by JAG

I think you hit on it in the second paragraph. In general, wouldn't the wolves have wanted us to chase the idea that bhlloy was a wolf and not find out for however long it took? If they had a late vote on DV where it would have looked like they were 'saving' bhlloy, possibly someone who has an important wolf role, revealing bhlloy to be good would take some heat off them.

I am getting confused. This sounds like basically the same thing I said an hour or so ago, but you're using it as an argument to look at bhlloy voters, while I was using it as an argument to look at DV voters.

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

I am getting confused. This sounds like basically the same thing I said an hour or so ago, but you're using it as an argument to look at bhlloy voters, while I was using it as an argument to look at DV voters.

Which is especially weird, considering I voted for DV, and you voted for bhlloy.

[Lathum]

OK, so go ahead and shoot holes in this but Dannys logic seems very flawed.

I think it is safe to say there are at least 3 wolves. So by Danys logic if there is 1 among the 5 non DV voters there would be at least 2 among the DV voters so the odds of hitting a wold are about the same.

[Narcizo]

To be fair it's more my logic than Danny's and yeah. Not one of my finest hours.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by Narcizo

To be fair it's more my logic than Danny's and yeah. Not one of my finest hours.

sorry, really busy and only skimmed. The president of my company is coming to my office today so things are nuts.

[EagleFan]

As of post 358:

MrBug708 3 - Autumn (268), Chief Rum (328), PackerFanatic (334)
The Jackal 2 - mauboy1 (277), MrBug708 (344)
ntndeacon 1 - Narcizo (305)
PackerFanatic 1 - Passacaglia (349)
Chief Rum 1 - ntndeacon (311)

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

Oh wait, Bug actually has three votes -- I was assuming CR unvoted, but he has not.

I almost certainly will be. Just leaving it for now to see what develops.

[The Jackal]

Just got back from the dentist. I knew I'd catch a little heat for being a tie-breaking vote when it was 6-6 bhlloy DV, but that was assuming we didn't know bhlloy's allegiance.

So as I see it, two people have voted for me, one doesn't want to discuss why, and the other doesn't want to discuss anything?

[mauchow]

You betcha jackal. I was just throwing out a vote eary. I am kind of waiting to see what transpires today from my vote and also to keep a read on someone specific. Didn't want to name names early on to change their pattern in case I did see something.

Its somewhat interesting to see the second vote on you however.

[mauchow]

I guess it could be seen as self defense but there were others to consider also.

[The Jackal]

Yeah at least you said something. Obviously you've got some kind of theory or info and you're watching someone. If you don't come out with it eventually you know full well people are going to get on you.

As far as Bug, it's always disappointing when people do hit and run votes.

[Autumn]

It seems more likely Mr. Bug is a villager with the continued hit and run. I know that's his MO, and you would think a wolf would feel pressed to defend himself, at least if he's actually reading along and seeing what we're saying about him. I don't know, though, it galls me a bit to think about moving my vote *because* he's continuing to drive-by, rather than because he started adding content.

[The Jackal]

Of all the theories bandied about I think the likeliest one is that the wolves thought bhlloy would be a prime scan candidate, whereas some of the bigger names would be a likely BG candidate and bhlloy would be very unlikely to be guarded. And there's probably at least 4 villager roles in the game so they had a chance of hitting one.

Still a move you don't see very often though.

[The Jackal]

Gets the "i've played with narcizo too much" suspicions going in me that the wolves have multiple normal D1 targets amongst them.

[Autumn]

Yeah, that's true Jackal. Bhlloy had 0% chance of being guarded, and a high percentage chance of being scanned, so it's a smart move that way. The downside for them would be that it clears up voting history for us. Therefore, I think I will assume that is the reasoning and not get caught up in any theories about them trying to hide wolf moves, as that will most likely ruin the advantage we gained by bhlloy's death, leaving us chasing our tails despite having a very clear vote history.

[The Jackal]

What I'll most likely do is look at someone who voted for one of DV-bhlloy in the early-midday and didn't move it. Would be a safe wolf play, hoping for a villager-villager runoff.

[Autumn]

Going on my personal theory that wolves are more likely to vote in the middle, rather than early or late (and assuming there's not more than one wolf on Bhlloy, as that would make the night kill rather dangerous), I'm looking at folks in the middle of the Darth voters. Pass, Chief, Telle. Pass and Chief are talking a lot and giving us something to go by. Nothing stands out to me in their posts. Telle has thrown in one good point today but otherwise been silent, and certainly is guilty of the safe vote on Darth yesterday.

unvote mrbug708
vote telle

[Telle]

Heh.. so yesterday I tried to break my bad habit of always waiting until the last minute to vote, and this is what I get for it

Personally, I'm thinking of going with Chief Rum. There was a bit of a run on him yesterday, that just kind of up and disappeared. That looks a little suspicious to me.

vote Chief Rum

[Lathum]

OK, on lunch catching up. I really don't want to throw another candidate into the mix, but I find it interesting thet Narcizo was an early voter for the iocane powder as well as an early DV voter. He also seemed to be driving a lot of the conversation yesterday in a way he typically doesn't.

[Danny]

Originally Posted by Lathum

OK, so go ahead and shoot holes in this but Dannys logic seems very flawed.

I think it is safe to say there are at least 3 wolves. So by Danys logic if there is 1 among the 5 non DV voters there would be at least 2 among the DV voters so the odds of hitting a wold are about the same.

And what if there are four wolves and they split their vote? Or what if there are three and only one voted DV? And even with a 2-1 split, considering I am in the second group, it's still higher odds to hit a wolf. It would be for you too, if you are a villager...

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by Danny

And what if there are four wolves and they split their vote? Or what if there are three and only one voted DV? And even with a 2-1 split, considering I am in the second group, it's still higher odds to hit a wolf. It would be for you too, if you are a villager...

Well I am not going to assume you are a villager just because you claim to be. I know I am, but that doesn't change the odds enough IMO to just blindly start voting the non DV voters.

[Danny]

Originally Posted by Lathum

Well I am not going to assume you are a villager just because you claim to be. I know I am, but that doesn't change the odds enough IMO to just blindly start voting the non DV voters.

And you shouldn't, but it' safe for me to. In your case, it would be a different set of 4 people. People point out not liking this logic, but aren't going on anything better.

Vote ntndeacon

He hasn't gained too much traction day 1 or 2, so he is on my list of 4 and someone that I want to see if he gets more votes.

[Danny]

Originally Posted by mauboy1

You betcha jackal. I was just throwing out a vote eary. I am kind of waiting to see what transpires today from my vote and also to keep a read on someone specific. Didn't want to name names early on to change their pattern in case I did see something.

Its somewhat interesting to see the second vote on you however.

90% chance you later say it turned out to be nothing and never actually gives us any real info.

[Narcizo]

I've been weighing my options all day and I think revealing is the right move here. In a normal game I'd probably hold out a day or two more but given the number of potential saves there are for me I even considered revealing yesterday. I probably would have had I been round when I got 4 votes. I wish I could hold on two or three more hours to find out where all the votes were going today but such is not the lot of the time zonally challenged.

I'm Westley and I scanned Passa last night and he's a wolf. Sorry Pass. I'd like to claim that it was a great read I had on you but in reality it was mostly because I thought you were unlikely to be lynched or night killed in the early stages and that it would be useful to have you cleared later in the game.

I won't be voting Passa in case the wolves have the powder and that allows him to challenge me to a battle of wits. I'm not 100% certain that he should be lynched at all. I have 4-5 potential layers of defence which means I might be able to last a decent length of time in the game. But from what I can work out none of those protect me from a brutal attack. So if grandpa is in the game now might be a good time to use your power. If Miracle Max is in the game he should protect me and send me the cloak if he hasn't given it out already. The wolves will know if one of the roles aren't in the game so it might be dangerous to rely on others too much. Luckily I can also protect myself one night and Fezzik is around so he can protect me. In any case I suggest that Fezzik protects me tonight as I don't want to rely on Max being in the game.

[Narcizo]

I probably think we should lynch Passa today because whichever day it's decided we should lynch him will be a bust in terms of voting records and at least this way we have a half-day of records to look at for today. If he's Count Rugen then I probably should have waited a day or two but I didn't want to die in my sleep, as it were, when there are so many layers of protection for me if I reveal.

[Narcizo]

Anyway I refuse to believe that Count Rugen could overcome me in single combat.

[Telle]

Good job on the scan there, Narcizo!

unvote Chief Rum
vote Passacaglia

[Narcizo]

That's flavour really - I asked Eagle if my own protection ability would save me from a brutal attack but the answer was no.

[Danny]

Unvote ntn
Vote Pass

Not much to say, good job

[Narcizo]

Which I might not have wanted to broadcast like I just did. D'oh!

[Narcizo]

The way Pass was going after Packer gives me a lot of trust for PF. I don't think a wolf under no pressure would go after another wolf under little pressure so methodically. It's certainly not the impression of Passa I got the short time we were wolves together. It also tips me towards trusting dacman or his replacement although the trust there isn't quite as strong.

[Danny]

BTW, revealing is a good call. In a medium sized game and with ways to be protected, its worth it for a wolf.

[Chief Rum]

Awesome.

UNVOTE MRBUG
VOTE PASSACAGLIA

[Narcizo]

Got to go now. Sorry for killing the day - I would really have liked to hold on 2-3 hours more. Maybe I should move to Iceland or something.

[The Jackal]

Well then

VOTE PASS

[The Jackal]

I don't think I said it earlier btw, I didn't win the iocane.

[ntndeacon]

Unvote Chief
Vote Pass

[ntndeacon]

Any day we can oust a wolf is a good day.

[Autumn]

We've had some nice luck with early scans lately.

unvote telle
vote passacaglia

[Autumn]

That said I'm watching teh kids and won't be posting that much for a while, likely.

[mauchow]

unvote jackal
vote passacaglia

The person I was looking, well, two persons actually. I just had a vibe that Danny and Jackal were kinda working together with how quickly Danny brought up that he was feeling really good about Jackal. So it was funny that Danny started to attack me right away after bringing up that I was going to wait until tonight to bring it up because it was him I was looking at.

Needless to say, sorry about the minimal hoopla it caused. Carry on.

[Danny]

Originally Posted by mauboy1

unvote jackal
vote passacaglia

The person I was looking, well, two persons actually. I just had a vibe that Danny and Jackal were kinda working together with how quickly Danny brought up that he was feeling really good about Jackal. So it was funny that Danny started to attack me right away after bringing up that I was going to wait until tonight to bring it up because it was him I was looking at.

Needless to say, sorry about the minimal hoopla it caused. Carry on.

Convenient, and a useless time to try and say something meaningful. Why wouldn't you bring this up early in the day and see how I respond and see if I get some traction for votes? You bring it up now when the vote is decided because we found a wolf.

[Autumn]

This lashing out at Mauboy seems a bit contrived. He didn't want to say anything because, like many villagers do, he wanted to watch and see what his suspects did without them knowing he was watching. The same reason Narc might have held on to see what Pass would do without knowing he'd been scanned. It seems pretty obvious villager play so I'm intrigued that people are making a big deal about it.

[The Jackal]

All I have to say on the matter is that if we were wolves working together there's no way either of us would say "he's #1 on my trust list"

[The Jackal]

I think, Autumn, people never like seeing someone say "I've got a theory" or "I might have some information" and then not wanting to reveal anything. Best case in that situation is probably just to keep it quiet until you've seen what you want to see.

[The Jackal]

dola

because that's often a wolf trying to set a defense tactic up or suggest to people they have a role and shouldn't be voted

i don't think that's what happened in this case, because mau wasn't a target as of yet, but still.. probably globally applies to those kind of comments.