Werewolf CXXVIII - The Original Werewolves - VILLAGERS WIN - Page 8

Barkeep49 · 03-24-2011, 11:28 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Danny

Wow, so.I should have voted J23 and then left the village to guess if I actually scanned him after being night killed?

Revealing was the 100 percent right thing to do. Especially with the BG and maybe even the martyr out there.

Is it possible I am the cultist who scanned seer? Sure, but its much more likely I am the seer. Any play to delay lynching J23 is a bad, low percentage play.

Why is it much more likely?

Danny · 03-24-2011, 11:48 AM

For the reasons I described, on day 1 I had a 1/4 chance of scanning wolf, day 2 a 3/11 chance. The cultist had a 1/9 chance day 1 and 1/8 chance day 2. That along with J23's play makes it much more likely I am the seer.

The Jackal · 03-24-2011, 11:49 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Barkeep49

I'm not sure I follow. We don't lynch either of them for today and get what out of it?

Well, lynching the cultist when we haven't found a wolf yet is detrimental. If we think we know who the cultist is, we leave them since they count as a villager.

Now, I'm not saying Danny is lying here, just trying to make sure we have our bases covered. And I'm also not against voting out J, I just didn't like how quickly things were moving towards nightfall.

I do agree that J's play has not been indicative of a seer, though some people do try to play a seer very silently.

J is probably our best bet for today, since we've not much in the way of voting history at this point, especially with the confusion that a reveal which can't be 100% trusted can cause.

The Jackal · 03-24-2011, 11:51 AM

I truly hope Danny is the seer, because what he outlined before, the BG protect tonight, martyr tomorrow, and BG the next if both are still alive to comply would give the village a huge advantage heading down the road here.

Danny · 03-24-2011, 12:00 PM

No worries Jackal, I just hope the martyr is in the game as getting 5 scans in sounds awfully good.

Danny · 03-24-2011, 12:10 PM

You'll also notice I haven't voted nightfall. I think this discussion is good. Ny guess is the other two wolves are not the ones questioning me.

JAG · 03-24-2011, 12:13 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Barkeep49

Sure. Assuming that there are 3 wolves in a 14 player game the odds of any 1 player being a wolf is roughly 21% (3/14). So that means there is roughly an 89% chance that any given player is a villager. For any two players both being a villager it would be .89*.89 or the likelihood of each. For 4 people, it's .89 to the 4th power which works out to 38%.

BK, wouldn't that be .79 instead of .89? Maybe I should have disputed your numbers.

Lathum · 03-24-2011, 12:16 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Jackal

I truly hope Danny is the seer, because what he outlined before, the BG protect tonight, martyr tomorrow, and BG the next if both are still alive to comply would give the village a huge advantage heading down the road here.

well if J23 comes back wolf I think it is a safe bet he is. No reason for the wolves to make this play at this point. And if he is a wolf then the real seer would need to time their counter reveal accordingly.

Barkeep49 · 03-24-2011, 12:22 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JAG

BK, wouldn't that be .79 instead of .89? Maybe I should have disputed your numbers.

Yes it is .79... I did the math correctly (thanks OpenOffice!) when I posted the real odds.

Barkeep49 · 03-24-2011, 12:23 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lathum

well if J23 comes back wolf I think it is a safe bet he is. No reason for the wolves to make this play at this point. And if he is a wolf then the real seer would need to time their counter reveal accordingly.

I would agree with this. If Danny is lying there isn't necessarily a need for the real seer to counter-reveal. If the real seer is J23, he needs to post who he's scanned. I think it more likely Danny is telling the truth but we do need some info out of J23 if he's wrong.

The Jackal · 03-24-2011, 12:25 PM

Worst case J is the seer, we lynch him, and the wolves get a NK, it'd be down to 6-3 (presumably) with the cultist known. So not quite endgame yet.

bhlloy · 03-24-2011, 12:32 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Jackal

Worst case J is the seer, we lynch him, and the wolves get a NK, it'd be down to 6-3 (presumably) with the cultist known. So not quite endgame yet.

Yeah for this reason, I don't think it's a wolf play.

Even if J23 claims to be the seer at this point I don't think we have any other play to trust the active player who revealed of his own volition. And if we lynch the seer because he's silent, well crap but there's not a lot we can do about that.

Barkeep49 · 03-24-2011, 12:36 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Jackal

Worst case J is the seer, we lynch him, and the wolves get a NK, it'd be down to 6-3 (presumably) with the cultist known. So not quite endgame yet.

I agree with this. This is why I've voted for nightfall as I'd like to see things move along. Of course we'd want to hear from J if he was the seer about who he's scanned. His silence is kind of damning in my opinion (as he's been on the board since the reveal).

dwardzala · 03-24-2011, 12:40 PM

Note, I only raised it as a possiblility and only withdrew my nightfall vote so we could have discussion. I am still inclinded to believe Danny is as he says but wanted to make sure we didn't miss the traitor/cultist mechanic.

We hang J23 and we'll know if Danny is telling the truth or not.

The Jackal · 03-24-2011, 12:45 PM

Suppose I've talked myself into not believing J even if he does show up with a story. Let's see what happens.

vote nightfall

The Jackal · 03-24-2011, 02:06 PM

J, if you check in and you're the real seer, please post your scans so we don't lose those on a good cultist play.. Post 'em if you're a wolf too, just for fun!

The Jackal · 03-24-2011, 02:11 PM

At this point we're probably not going to have enough time to run another day phase by 10, especially since night actions will have to get in too.

Lathum · 03-24-2011, 03:03 PM

hmm, got pretty quiet.

JAG · 03-24-2011, 03:33 PM

Not much more to chat about at this point, no? Other than potentially giving wolves more to think about for their choice of NK tonight or hearing from J23, though I agree with BK that it doesn't look good that he hasn't chimed in yet short of a big bday hangover.

JAG · 03-24-2011, 03:36 PM

I expect tomorrow to be fun though, unless Danny finds another wolf and we have another runaway, though we'd be more likely to get in a nightfall in that case.

J23 · 03-24-2011, 04:17 PM

Sorry I wasn't able to pop on until just now. I would think there is still plenty of time for discussion, but as I posted, my time the last two days (and today sadly) is very limited.

As some have surmised, I'm the seer, and I'm guessing that Danny is the traitor and sacrificing himself to let the wolves off me tonight unless the villagers do it for him.

My scans for nights 1 and 2 was JAG and Lathum, respectively, who both turned up villager. I went for vocal villagers that I thought tended to sway popular opinion, and didn't want us being led astray.

vote Danny

J23 · 03-24-2011, 04:19 PM

I'll try to be around for a bit if people want to ask questions or have some discussion, but I'll be leaving in the next hour or so and won't be around until deadline.

J23 · 03-24-2011, 04:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by J23

I'll try to be around for a bit if people want to ask questions or have some discussion, but I'll be leaving in the next hour or so and won't be around until deadline.

That should be after deadline btw. Friends are taking me out to an awesome Brazillian all you can eat steak place.

mauchow · 03-24-2011, 04:37 PM

If Danny is the traitor we probably should not be voting him as that would make him a villager. No way a wolf would be claiming seer though. If there was a sure-fire shot at a wolf I'd rather go that route than roll the dice on this showdown. But it does not look to be the case. My vote will either stay on J23 or someone else not named Danny.

J23 · 03-24-2011, 05:10 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mauboy1

If Danny is the traitor we probably should not be voting him as that would make him a villager. No way a wolf would be claiming seer though. If there was a sure-fire shot at a wolf I'd rather go that route than roll the dice on this showdown. But it does not look to be the case. My vote will either stay on J23 or someone else not named Danny.

Except that he knows who all the wolves are and could use his vote to protect them and lynch villagers. I'm not sure I buy keeping the traitor around.

mckerney · 03-24-2011, 05:25 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by J23

That should be after deadline btw. Friends are taking me out to an awesome Brazillian all you can eat steak place.

Fogo de Chao?

dwardzala · 03-24-2011, 05:35 PM

Well, we'll find out which of the two is lying when we lynch J23. I am not moving my vote unless someone offers a very compelling reason.

If Danny's lying, we can get him tomorrow.

Lathum · 03-24-2011, 05:43 PM

I see no reason to lynch Danny if he is the traitor, we would essentialy be killing a villager. Can he help the wolves with his vote, of course, but it puts him in a precarious position.

Danny · 03-24-2011, 06:00 PM

For my reference as to who to scan tonight and for others in use after today.

Day 1

Zinto 5 - JAG (52), Darth Vilus (81), saldana (93), dwardzala (94), The Jackal (128)
JAG 3 - Lathum (61), mauboy (84), Danny (96)
Darth Vilus 2 - Zinto (70), Chief Rum (83)
The Jackal 3 - mckerney (66), Barkeep49 (82), bhlloy (85)
Mckerney 1 - J23 (78)

Day 2

2 JAG - Lathum (175), Danny (278)
4 Darth Vilus - The Jackal (180), J23 (190), Chief Rum (232), saldana (250)
2 Danny - Barkeep49 (203), dwardzala (212)
2 The Jackal - Mckerney (209), mauboy1 (240)
2 Saldana - JAG (223), Darth Vilus (273)

Autumn · 03-24-2011, 09:38 PM

Vote count as of post 379

10 J23 - Barkeep49 (303), The Jackal (310), bhlloy (313), Danny (318), Chief Rum (319), saldana (320), JAG (321), Mauboy (322), dwardzala (323), Lathum (327)

1 Danny - J23 (371)

3 Nightfall - JAG, Lathum, barkeep49, the jackal

dwardzala · 03-24-2011, 09:52 PM

I probably won't be back on again until tomorrow evening, though I may check tomorrow morning to see the results of the night actions.

Autumn · 03-24-2011, 10:02 PM

Last night brought real evidence that a werewolf stalks the village. And so, compared to the unsure voting of the villagers on the days before, there is no hesitation today. One of the villagers steps forth, saying he knows who the werewolf is, and the rest line up to back him.

J23 is dragged up to the gallows, and the village watches, maybe wanting to look away as his body drops but unwilling to avert their gaze. They wish to know. After two nights of hanging their own, tonight they witness something else entirely. As his body drops to the bottom of the rope it transforms, twisting into a feral humanoid shape. It's claws are clearly strong enough to rend the wooden doors of the houses, its jaws strong enough to be responsible for the mutilated bodies they have found. Someone rushes forth and stabs the body with a silver dagger, to be certain, and then it is dead.

J23 was a werewolf.

Lathum · 03-24-2011, 10:04 PM

Nicely done Danny

bhlloy · 03-24-2011, 10:05 PM

Well that's a relief.... good job Danny

JAG · 03-24-2011, 10:06 PM

Good, now hopefully the night phase goes well.

Autumn · 03-24-2011, 11:04 PM

Dawn comes, and the village is quiet. Everyone gathers in the square and you see that all of you are still here. You caught a werewolf, and now none struck at night. Perhaps the werewolf menace has been defeated?

bhlloy · 03-24-2011, 11:10 PM

sweet

Barkeep49 · 03-24-2011, 11:14 PM

More good news.

The Jackal · 03-24-2011, 11:14 PM

Well, this game has taken a turn for the fortunate. Find yourself another wolf Danny?

Lathum · 03-24-2011, 11:19 PM

eagerly anticipating Dannys arrival

Lathum · 03-24-2011, 11:28 PM

I think J23 voting second on DV makes Sal and CR look better. Not sure the wolves would bunch up like that in such a close vote.

mckerney · 03-24-2011, 11:46 PM

Go villager!

JAG · 03-25-2011, 03:56 AM

Curious. I guess they took a chance that the BG wouldn't protect Danny in an effort to get cute and get an extra scan in by protecting him tonight. Which I'm glad the BG did not do, thank you.

JAG · 03-25-2011, 06:41 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lathum

I think J23 voting second on DV makes Sal and CR look better. Not sure the wolves would bunch up like that in such a close vote.

You didn't mention Jackal, but I would be relatively surprised if he came up wolf.

But anyway, when Danny checks in we'll have some more clarity to narrow things down.

JAG · 03-25-2011, 06:51 AM

Just wanted to make a couple minor corrections / clean ups to your list Danny, with the assumption that you're the seer (keeping you green though we don't have official confirmation as of yet).

Day 1

5 Zinto - JAG (52), Darth Vilus (81), saldana (93), dwardzala (94), The Jackal (128)
3 JAG - Lathum (61), mauboy (84), Danny (96)
3 The Jackal - mckerney (66), Barkeep49 (82), bhlloy (85)
2 Darth Vilus - Zinto (70), Chief Rum (83)
1 mckerney - J23 (78)

Day 2

4 Darth Vilus - The Jackal (180), J23 (190), Chief Rum (232), saldana (250)
2 JAG - Lathum (175), Danny (278)
2 Danny - Barkeep49 (203), dwardzala (212)
2 The Jackal - mckerney (209), mauboy1 (240)
2 Saldana - JAG (223), Darth Vilus (273)

Danny · 03-25-2011, 08:36 AM

Not great news now, but I can clear two people

Night 1 I scanned Dwardzala who is a villager
Last night I scanned Mauboy who is also a villager

Mau's votes struck me as suspicious

Danny · 03-25-2011, 08:37 AM

Thanks Jag, updated now with my scans. There is no cunning wolf, so we know they're good.

Day 1

5 Zinto - JAG (52), Darth Vilus (81), saldana (93), dwardzala (94), The Jackal (128)
3 JAG - Lathum (61), mauboy (84), Danny (96)
3 The Jackal - mckerney (66), Barkeep49 (82), bhlloy (85)
2 Darth Vilus - Zinto (70), Chief Rum (83)
1 mckerney - J23 (78)

Day 2

4 Darth Vilus - The Jackal (180), J23 (190), Chief Rum (232), saldana (250)
2 JAG - Lathum (175), Danny (278)
2 Danny - Barkeep49 (203), dwardzala (212)
2 The Jackal - mckerney (209), mauboy1 (240)
2 Saldana - JAG (223), Darth Vilus (273)

Danny · 03-25-2011, 08:40 AM

I was originally the second vote on Jackal on day 2 as well, so interesting that no wolves vote him on day 2.

Looking at the votes, if the wolves spread out, that would mean two of Lathum, BK and Jag were wolves. Then again, it is possible they loaded up on DV if say Jackal and Saldana were wolves and on the block.

Lathum · 03-25-2011, 08:51 AM

Danny, why did you scan the two people you did?

Lathum · 03-25-2011, 08:53 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JAG

You didn't mention Jackal, but I would be relatively surprised if he came up wolf.

B.

Really?

I think Jackal looks pretty bad. Damning vote on Zinto D1 and D2 had 2 known villagers voting for him, which makes him look bad if the wolves are spreading things out.

03-24-2011, 11:48 AM	#352
Danny Head Coach Join Date: Jul 2001	For the reasons I described, on day 1 I had a 1/4 chance of scanning wolf, day 2 a 3/11 chance. The cultist had a 1/9 chance day 1 and 1/8 chance day 2. That along with J23's play makes it much more likely I am the seer.

03-24-2011, 11:51 AM	#354
The Jackal Coordinator Join Date: Jan 2008 Location: New Hampshire	I truly hope Danny is the seer, because what he outlined before, the BG protect tonight, martyr tomorrow, and BG the next if both are still alive to comply would give the village a huge advantage heading down the road here.

03-24-2011, 12:00 PM	#355
Danny Head Coach Join Date: Jul 2001	No worries Jackal, I just hope the martyr is in the game as getting 5 scans in sounds awfully good.

03-24-2011, 12:10 PM	#356
Danny Head Coach Join Date: Jul 2001	You'll also notice I haven't voted nightfall. I think this discussion is good. Ny guess is the other two wolves are not the ones questioning me.

03-24-2011, 12:25 PM	#361
The Jackal Coordinator Join Date: Jan 2008 Location: New Hampshire	Worst case J is the seer, we lynch him, and the wolves get a NK, it'd be down to 6-3 (presumably) with the cultist known. So not quite endgame yet.

03-24-2011, 12:40 PM	#364
dwardzala H.S. Freshman Team Join Date: Nov 2004	Note, I only raised it as a possiblility and only withdrew my nightfall vote so we could have discussion. I am still inclinded to believe Danny is as he says but wanted to make sure we didn't miss the traitor/cultist mechanic. We hang J23 and we'll know if Danny is telling the truth or not.

03-24-2011, 12:45 PM	#365
The Jackal Coordinator Join Date: Jan 2008 Location: New Hampshire	Suppose I've talked myself into not believing J even if he does show up with a story. Let's see what happens. vote nightfall

03-24-2011, 02:06 PM	#366
The Jackal Coordinator Join Date: Jan 2008 Location: New Hampshire	J, if you check in and you're the real seer, please post your scans so we don't lose those on a good cultist play.. Post 'em if you're a wolf too, just for fun!

03-24-2011, 02:11 PM	#367
The Jackal Coordinator Join Date: Jan 2008 Location: New Hampshire	At this point we're probably not going to have enough time to run another day phase by 10, especially since night actions will have to get in too.

03-24-2011, 03:03 PM	#368
Lathum Favored Bitch #1 Join Date: Dec 2001 Location: homeless in NJ	hmm, got pretty quiet.

03-24-2011, 03:33 PM	#369
JAG Grizzled Veteran Join Date: Nov 2000 Location: St. Paul, MN	Not much more to chat about at this point, no? Other than potentially giving wolves more to think about for their choice of NK tonight or hearing from J23, though I agree with BK that it doesn't look good that he hasn't chimed in yet short of a big bday hangover.

03-24-2011, 03:36 PM	#370
JAG Grizzled Veteran Join Date: Nov 2000 Location: St. Paul, MN	I expect tomorrow to be fun though, unless Danny finds another wolf and we have another runaway, though we'd be more likely to get in a nightfall in that case.

03-24-2011, 04:17 PM	#371
J23 College Benchwarmer Join Date: Jul 2009	Sorry I wasn't able to pop on until just now. I would think there is still plenty of time for discussion, but as I posted, my time the last two days (and today sadly) is very limited. As some have surmised, I'm the seer, and I'm guessing that Danny is the traitor and sacrificing himself to let the wolves off me tonight unless the villagers do it for him. My scans for nights 1 and 2 was JAG and Lathum, respectively, who both turned up villager. I went for vocal villagers that I thought tended to sway popular opinion, and didn't want us being led astray. vote Danny

03-24-2011, 04:19 PM	#372
J23 College Benchwarmer Join Date: Jul 2009	I'll try to be around for a bit if people want to ask questions or have some discussion, but I'll be leaving in the next hour or so and won't be around until deadline.

03-24-2011, 04:37 PM	#374
mauchow Grizzled Veteran Join Date: Nov 2003 Location: Murfreesboro, TN	If Danny is the traitor we probably should not be voting him as that would make him a villager. No way a wolf would be claiming seer though. If there was a sure-fire shot at a wolf I'd rather go that route than roll the dice on this showdown. But it does not look to be the case. My vote will either stay on J23 or someone else not named Danny.

03-24-2011, 05:35 PM	#377
dwardzala H.S. Freshman Team Join Date: Nov 2004	Well, we'll find out which of the two is lying when we lynch J23. I am not moving my vote unless someone offers a very compelling reason. If Danny's lying, we can get him tomorrow.

03-24-2011, 05:43 PM	#378
Lathum Favored Bitch #1 Join Date: Dec 2001 Location: homeless in NJ	I see no reason to lynch Danny if he is the traitor, we would essentialy be killing a villager. Can he help the wolves with his vote, of course, but it puts him in a precarious position.

03-24-2011, 06:00 PM	#379
Danny Head Coach Join Date: Jul 2001	For my reference as to who to scan tonight and for others in use after today. Day 1 Zinto 5 - JAG (52), Darth Vilus (81), saldana (93), dwardzala (94), The Jackal (128) JAG 3 - Lathum (61), mauboy (84), Danny (96) Darth Vilus 2 - Zinto (70), Chief Rum (83) The Jackal 3 - mckerney (66), Barkeep49 (82), bhlloy (85) Mckerney 1 - J23 (78) Day 2 2 JAG - Lathum (175), Danny (278) 4 Darth Vilus - The Jackal (180), J23 (190), Chief Rum (232), saldana (250) 2 Danny - Barkeep49 (203), dwardzala (212) 2 The Jackal - Mckerney (209), mauboy1 (240) 2 Saldana - JAG (223), Darth Vilus (273)

03-24-2011, 09:38 PM	#380
Autumn Head Coach Join Date: Feb 2003 Location: Bath, ME	Vote count as of post 379 10 J23 - Barkeep49 (303), The Jackal (310), bhlloy (313), Danny (318), Chief Rum (319), saldana (320), JAG (321), Mauboy (322), dwardzala (323), Lathum (327) 1 Danny - J23 (371) 3 Nightfall - JAG, Lathum, barkeep49, the jackal

03-24-2011, 09:52 PM	#381
dwardzala H.S. Freshman Team Join Date: Nov 2004	I probably won't be back on again until tomorrow evening, though I may check tomorrow morning to see the results of the night actions.

03-24-2011, 10:02 PM	#382
Autumn Head Coach Join Date: Feb 2003 Location: Bath, ME	Last night brought real evidence that a werewolf stalks the village. And so, compared to the unsure voting of the villagers on the days before, there is no hesitation today. One of the villagers steps forth, saying he knows who the werewolf is, and the rest line up to back him. J23 is dragged up to the gallows, and the village watches, maybe wanting to look away as his body drops but unwilling to avert their gaze. They wish to know. After two nights of hanging their own, tonight they witness something else entirely. As his body drops to the bottom of the rope it transforms, twisting into a feral humanoid shape. It's claws are clearly strong enough to rend the wooden doors of the houses, its jaws strong enough to be responsible for the mutilated bodies they have found. Someone rushes forth and stabs the body with a silver dagger, to be certain, and then it is dead. J23 was a werewolf.

03-24-2011, 10:04 PM	#383
Lathum Favored Bitch #1 Join Date: Dec 2001 Location: homeless in NJ	Nicely done Danny

03-24-2011, 10:05 PM	#384
bhlloy Coordinator Join Date: Nov 2003	Well that's a relief.... good job Danny

03-24-2011, 10:06 PM	#385
JAG Grizzled Veteran Join Date: Nov 2000 Location: St. Paul, MN	Good, now hopefully the night phase goes well.

03-24-2011, 11:04 PM	#386
Autumn Head Coach Join Date: Feb 2003 Location: Bath, ME	Dawn comes, and the village is quiet. Everyone gathers in the square and you see that all of you are still here. You caught a werewolf, and now none struck at night. Perhaps the werewolf menace has been defeated?

03-24-2011, 11:10 PM	#387
bhlloy Coordinator Join Date: Nov 2003	sweet

03-24-2011, 11:14 PM	#388
Barkeep49 Coordinator Join Date: Jan 2001 Location: Not too far away	More good news.

03-24-2011, 11:14 PM	#389
The Jackal Coordinator Join Date: Jan 2008 Location: New Hampshire	Well, this game has taken a turn for the fortunate. Find yourself another wolf Danny?

03-24-2011, 11:19 PM	#390
Lathum Favored Bitch #1 Join Date: Dec 2001 Location: homeless in NJ	eagerly anticipating Dannys arrival

03-24-2011, 11:28 PM	#391
Lathum Favored Bitch #1 Join Date: Dec 2001 Location: homeless in NJ	I think J23 voting second on DV makes Sal and CR look better. Not sure the wolves would bunch up like that in such a close vote.