Werewolf XLVI Willy Wonka the game thread!!!! BAD GUYS WIN!!

[Barkeep49]

What, btw, does killing me do tomorrow when I come up a villager? How does that help the good guys win the game? I don't think voting for me has any real upside outside of the chance that I'm a wolf.

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by Barkeep49

What, btw, does killing me do tomorrow when I come up a villager? How does that help the good guys win the game? I don't think voting for me has any real upside outside of the chance that I'm a wolf.

Is that statement false for anyone else?

[Barkeep49]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

Is that statement false for anyone else?

I'm sort of working on it. I think it would be more true about people who have larger COTs.

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by Barkeep49

I'm sort of working on it. I think it would be more true about people who have larger COTs.

I'm intrigued..

[bulletsponge]

ok just caught up...

[bulletsponge]

after lookinbg at day 1 votes, the early vote on Saldana rings my wolf alert. Daddytorgo voted fairly early for saldana, knowing that he could easily change his vote later with virtually no repicusions if he needed to. but if he didnt need to it wouldnt look bad to be the first to vote for a wolf on day 1 (if him or saldana were discovered it would make the other look less suspicious).
i know if i was a wolf id have 1 vote for another wolf, so in future referal you could have it to fall back on "hey look a wolf tried to get me killed day 1". maybe its just me being overly suspicous but im voting for him

Vote Daddytorgo

[Mr. Wednesday]

Originally Posted by Barkeep49

I'm sort of working on it. I think it would be more true about people who have larger COTs.

Who are they?

Aside from LSG (for obvious reasons), we don't seem to have much trust in the game right now. Is there any way that we can build some trust in someone else?

There's not much that jumps out at me from looking at the votes that have been cast. Everybody's been really spread out, we have five different people voting for saldana on day 1 and day 2 (no repeats). Looking at votes involving known innocents is even less helpful: we have CR voting for LSG, nobody voting for ardent, and only saldana voting for hoops. I suppose maybe we could look at the voters on the two lynches, although that's seldom of much help -- only bulletsponge voted for both of them, with DT and Swaggs also on ntn and barkeep plus known good cronin and LSG alson on CR.

[RendeR]

BARKEEP:Try to remember what I posted. I'm not basing my vote off of anything other than your quick jump on my apparently easy to spot villager-ness this morning. Alant's analysys, while intriguing, really didn't sway me much in any direction.

As for pulling data out of nowhere and calling it analysis, you're wrong, doing that is called : Assumption.

You can't make any hard and pat cases without solid evidence. day's 1 and 2 were clearly shots in the dark and it cost us a number of villagers. day 3 there was enough actual evidence to condem the main wolf and that still cost us Willy Wonka.

Never Assume.

[Mr. Wednesday]

As far as what's being pushed today, we have Alan pushing Barkeep (but Alan always pushes somebody) and now bulletsponge pushing DT. Not a whole lot of action.

[DaddyTorgo]

I miss willy wonka. and so does my candy-loving tummy.

can I get a refund??

[Mr. Wednesday]

Originally Posted by RendeR

Try to remember what I posted barkeep. I'm not basing my vote off of anything other than your quick jump on my apparently easy to spot villager-ness this morning.

Enlighten me, how is your villager-ness easy to spot?

(To answer a question you asked earlier, nobody voted in lockstep with saldana, and only Alan ever voted for the same person as him. Wolves are pretty good at not voting together, though...)


(Meta-note: I deleted the bit about flailing about on day 1, but that's the nature of the beast in WW games, we rarely have any info to cast a worthwhile vote on day 1. The vast majority of the time, someone good gets whacked for no reason at all. We're actually incredibly lucky that Wonka got Slugworth as quickly as he did, the odds were not in favor of him getting someone on night 1.)

[Mr. Wednesday]

I'm stepping out for a little while, I'll be back before the deadline.

[LoneStarGirl]

Anybody have a vote count? I dont know if I am going to move my vote off of Alant because I really dont think it matters. It seems Barkeep is getting offed tonight unless something happens

[LoneStarGirl]

I was thinking the last couple of games I played with Bullet he was very playful and posted a lot. Not so much this game... maybe that is something to look at

[RendeR]

Originally Posted by Mr. Wednesday

Enlighten me, how is your villager-ness easy to spot?

Inane posts for nothing more than humor, no real information or finger pointing but not avoiding conversation when directed at me.

I'm an open book man, read the pages of my golden ticket, just don't bend them, it tickles.

[bulletsponge]

Originally Posted by LoneStarGirl

I was thinking the last couple of games I played with Bullet he was very playful and posted a lot. Not so much this game... maybe that is something to look at

back it up with a vote sweetcheeks

[Barkeep49]

Originally Posted by RendeR

Inane posts for nothing more than humor, no real information or finger pointing but not avoiding conversation when directed at me.

I'm an open book man, read the pages of my golden ticket, just don't bend them, it tickles.

Here's the thing that gets me: This would make you a very hard wolf to spot.

I'm keeping my vote on Render and think that we should go that direction if only because he's made very clear that:
1. We won't get any information from him
2. He isn't willing to do analysis suggesting that it is little more than assumption

I'm a villager so I will try and save myself, but I think Render is a better choice today than I am.

[LoneStarGirl]

we are very slow tonight. I was hoping somebody besides alant would try to convince me to change my vote

[Barkeep49]

Originally Posted by LoneStarGirl

we are very slow tonight. I was hoping somebody besides alant would try to convince me to change my vote

I've made my case for Render. I'd be happy to join you on AlanT if it means saving me. It seems to me we have some missing votes so hopefully it'll pick up in the next couple of hours.

[Passacaglia]

I've got my eye on RendeR too, but as I don't know his style of play well (does he usually do this kind of thing?), I'm not ready to vote on him yet.

VOTE BARKEEP49

[DaddyTorgo]

very slow night. That's an interesting point about RendeR for sure Barkeep. Do we have a vote-count?

[Mr. Wednesday]

Originally Posted by RendeR

Inane posts for nothing more than humor, no real information or finger pointing but not avoiding conversation when directed at me.

Great way to play as a wolf, except for the fact that people get kinda annoyed at some point when you're not pulling your weight. (Or, if you are a wolf, not pretending to pull your weight.)

[Mr. Wednesday]

Originally Posted by LoneStarGirl

Right now I am leaning towards Alant over Barkeep. I dont remember at exactly what time Alant voted for Saldana, but I think it was after I put the nail in Cheif's coffin. Then on day two he votes for Cronin....

You were asking to be dissuaded by someone other than Alan, so I'll try to weigh in on his behalf. Yeah, voting for saldana after CR was ahead looks like it could be an attempt to build trust, but on day 2, there was nothing more than vague hints from cronin that suggested he might be Wonka (and I avoided mentioning anything about it because it wasn't exactly the sort of thing we wanted to be broadcasting to the spies/wolves).

So you've got a day 1 vote, which is pretty thin evidence considering how seldom you can get useful info from day 1.

Now, having said all of that, I don't have any particularly better ideas, and nobody's given me any since the last time I was in discussion.

[Mr. Wednesday]

I've seen what the case for RendeR is, and I'm not sure I buy it given that he's at least tried to make some headway today. Is there anything more than feel against Barkeep?

[Barkeep49]

Originally Posted by Mr. Wednesday

You were asking to be dissuaded by someone other than Alan, so I'll try to weigh in on his behalf. Yeah, voting for saldana after CR was ahead looks like it could be an attempt to build trust, but on day 2, there was nothing more than vague hints from cronin that suggested he might be Wonka (and I avoided mentioning anything about it because it wasn't exactly the sort of thing we wanted to be broadcasting to the spies/wolves).

So you've got a day 1 vote, which is pretty thin evidence considering how seldom you can get useful info from day 1.

Now, having said all of that, I don't have any particularly better ideas, and nobody's given me any since the last time I was in discussion.

I thought by the morning of Day 2 that it was clear that one of either cronin or saldana was Wonka and played accordingly. I read the situation wrong, but I think it was pretty clear that we had a wolf and seer in that group so I think I deserve some credit for that. And also think that this exonerates me as I'd have killed cronin if I were a wolf that night. I think my posts from Day 2 support the assertion I just made.

[Barkeep49]

Originally Posted by Mr. Wednesday

I've seen what the case for RendeR is, and I'm not sure I buy it given that he's at least tried to make some headway today. Is there anything more than feel against Barkeep?

Yes. The fact that I didn't vote for saldana on Day 1 (or even view him suspiciously) but then had him as one of my top 2 on Day 2. If I'd voted on Day 1 he could have died.

My response is that I was not around at the end and thus couldn't be swayed by Alan against saldana. Not to mention it was really when cronin and saldana started posting with each other that I figured out what was likely going on.

[Mr. Wednesday]

I'm not a huge fan of the choices here. I'd vote for Alan after my defense of him turned out to be a little more halfhearted than I expected, but I don't feel especially strongly that he's a wolf, and I don't want to lose one of our few remaining catalysts for discussion. If I've got to choose between Alan, Barkeep, and RendeR for someone to lose at this point, I'd choose the last, which is a little unfortunate because I don't really want to run off the new guy either.

[Mr. Wednesday]

Originally Posted by Barkeep49

I thought by the morning of Day 2 that it was clear that one of either cronin or saldana was Wonka and played accordingly. I read the situation wrong, but I think it was pretty clear that we had a wolf and seer in that group so I think I deserve some credit for that.

How do you mean that you read the situation wrong? You were right that cronin was Wonka, judging by your vote.

[Lathum]

I just got home from work. Does anyone have a vote count?

[Mr. Wednesday]

Eh, doesn't look like it's going to matter anyway.

VOTE RendeR

[Mr. Wednesday]

Lathum, no vote count that I've seen.

Since it doesn't look like anything more is happening, I'm out until after deadline.

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by Lathum

I just got home from work. Does anyone have a vote count?

Not me, I just got done working myself and trying to catch up. I think its close between Render and Barkeep right now, but not sure who or how many.

[Alan T]

I got this:

(2) Render - Barkeep (305), Mr.W (380)
(4) Barkeep - Alan (327), DaddyTorgo (329), Render (343), Passacaglia (370)
(1) Alan - Lonestargirl (333)
(1) Daddytorgo - Bulletsponge (356)

[Barkeep49]

Alan I hope you take heat tomorrow.

[Barkeep49]

Let me amend that. I actually hope Alan, DT, and to a lesser extent Render, take heat tomorrow. Don't forget we've been fooled before by first time players who are wolves.

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by Barkeep49

Alan I hope you take heat tomorrow.

I'll accept whatever consequences occur out of this. I feel confident about my reasoning I gave today.

[Lathum]

deadline

[Lathum]

YOu all gather around, wondering if this madness will end soon.

Just as they have in previous night the oompa loompas appear seemingly from nowhere, except they are armed with tasers, apparently taking no chances after last night. They are apparently in no mood to sing either.

The majority point to barkeep and he is quietly escorted from the factory without incident.

Barkeep was an ordinary golden ticket holder.

Night 4 has begun. Deadline 8:00 AM EST.

(2) Render - Barkeep (305), Mr.W (380)
(4) Barkeep - Alan (327), DaddyTorgo (329), Render (343), Passacaglia (370)
(1) Alan - Lonestargirl (333)
(1) Daddytorgo - Bulletsponge (356)

[Poli]

Welcome to the good guy party, barekeep.

[DaddyTorgo]

dammit.

sorry 'keep. Alan's reasoning seemed solid when I read it earlier. I'll go back and take another look at it, see if there's anything there though.

[Barkeep49]

Originally Posted by ardent enthusiast

Welcome to the good guy party, barekeep.

It's more fun in here!

[LoneStarGirl]

I was really afraid that was going to happen

[bulletsponge]

hmmmm, im suspicious of 1 person now. i dare not say his name, for if he is a villager i will surely die tonight and he will take the blame

[RendeR]

MEh, I was wrong in my reaction to barkeep's early vote against me, sorry dude.

Frankly, I'm about clueless now. I really felt in my gut barkeep was a puppy.

back to square one for me.

[Lathum]

YOu all wake up in the morning expecting another gruesome death, but everyone is present and acconted for. Maybe things are looking up.

[Mr. Wednesday]

Maybe, but it could as easily be a sympathizer hit.

[Mr. Wednesday]

Anyway, off to bed, catch y'all tomorrow.

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by Lathum

YOu all wake up in the morning expecting another gruesome death, but everyone is present and acconted for. Maybe things are looking up.

But is it still Night 4, though, or has the title just not been updated?

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by Mr. Wednesday

Maybe, but it could as easily be a sympathizer hit.

I'm not sure what that means. The sympathizer probably would have come into play when saldana died, and I can't see that taking up the entirety of the spies night actions, anyway. There has to be something going on -- I'm especially weirded out by Lathum posting the night results at 1 am, then editing his post (*shun*) at 6 am, which was still before deadline.

[Alan T]

I saw his post this morning when I woke up around 6am, and the only change as best I can tell is that he simply colored it red. (It wasn't red before when I looked at it).

My guess from this result is either one of two things happened:

1) Bodyguard blocked the attack
2) Sympathizer was attacked and converted last night.

I'm hoping it is #1, but my guess is either of these could have led us to the result we saw.