What will the outcome be of the mid terms?

[Ghost Econ]

Assuming CNN is right that 98% of the CO vote is counted, ~6000 ballots are outstanding in Boebert's district. Frisch would have to win at about 66% of those to win.

[sterlingice]

It was always a bit of a pipe dream but it was fun to pretend

SI

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by Ryche

If you have blue votes clustered around Madison and Milwaukee at a 90% rate and the rest of the state is 60%-70% red, it's actually pretty hard to district that into something representing the statewide vote. It has to be drawn very deliberately (gerrymandered) to not have more red districts.

Every other state with big cities can draw maps that don't end up with such an un-democratic slant. This is just gerrymandering to the extreme.

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by bronconick

Someone is going to have to convince me that Trump won't just drub DeSantis like Jeb Bush if they're in a contested primary before I worry about DeSantis before 2028.

I think there was a tiny window where he was weak after J6 when they could have moved on from Trump. They let him regroup and maintain his status as the leader of the party.

Now is another time where he is at his weakest. It's why he is lashing out like a crazy person. If Desantis comes out firing and gets the backing of other big Republicans, I think they can largely move on from Trump. He'll still be a figure, but not THE figure.

With that said, I don't think Desantis has the balls to fight him. I don't think he'd have enough people with the balls to back him either. So my guess is the party will still revolve around Trump through 2024, which is pretty great news for Democrats who have had three straight successful elections running against him as the leader.

[Ksyrup]

A few Rs have floated trial balloon comments about moving on from Trump. Like McConnell, McCarthy, Haley and a few others did after J6, they'll see where those comments land, if anyone else follows suit, and if so, the momentum to pile on will begin. If not, they'll pretend like they never said anything, Trump will announce, and he'll be their nominee.

[bronconick]

He's already firing on DeSantis

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by Edward64

I agree that a run-off would favor Warnock vs Walker/Trump.

I'm not sure that holds true if it was a Walker supported by Kemp. I think Kemp has publicly said he supports Walker but my guess (and hope) that he really doesn't. But a 51 GOP majority may be very compelling to him.

Welp, Kemp is involved now. Sure hope it doesn't come down to this race.

McConnell turns to Brian Kemp to help save Herschel Walker in Georgia runoff - POLITICO

McConnell turns to Brian Kemp to help save Herschel Walker in Georgia runoff

The Georgia governor is loaning his get-out-the-vote machine to the McConnell-aligned super PAC, Senate Leadership Fund, ahead of the Dec. 6 vote.

[larrymcg421]

It won't be for majority. Dems are going to take NV and AZ.

I don't think the GOP, who clearly don't care for Walker that much, will turn out for him in a runoff that doesn't change control of the Senate.

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by Ksyrup

A few Rs have floated trial balloon comments about moving on from Trump. Like McConnell, McCarthy, Haley and a few others did after J6, they'll see where those comments land, if anyone else follows suit, and if so, the momentum to pile on will begin. If not, they'll pretend like they never said anything, Trump will announce, and he'll be their nominee.

They all backed down quick. If they actually want to rid themselves of him, everyone has to go after him when he's at his weakest. You give him a couple months to recover and he's killing you in another election in 2024.

It's still inconceivable to me that the Democrats might gain seats in the Senate. Republicans just gave away Pennsylvania, Arizona, and Nevada this year.

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by larrymcg421

It won't be for majority. Dems are going to take NV and AZ.

I don't think the GOP, who clearly don't care for Walker that much, will turn out for him in a runoff that doesn't change control of the Senate.

Yeah, I think Walker's hopes hinged on this race being for the Senate.

[Ksyrup]

The problem is, this is like lining up, everyone agreeing to step forward, and one or two idiots step forward while everyone else stands pat. Eventually, no one even tries to step forward for fear of getting outed as anti-Trump with no support.

[Edward64]

538 agrees.

Happy with the (likely) mixed Congress. Nice bonus if a SCOTUS slot frees up to get things closer to even.

2022 Election: Live Results And Updates | FiveThirtyEight

Democrats seem likely to (eventually) win Arizona and Nevada, giving them control of the Senate regardless of what happens in the Georgia runoff.
:
Republicans are virtually guaranteed to have at least 49 seats in the next Senate, and Democrats have clinched 48. That means Democrats need to win two of Arizona, Georgia and Nevada to keep control.

In Arizona, Kelly leads Masters 51 percent to 46 percent — a margin of 98,141 votes. There are over 600,000 ballots left to count statewide, but it will be difficult for Masters to overcome that deficit.

In Nevada, Laxalt leads Cortez Masto 49 percent to 48 percent — a margin of 15,867 votes. However, there are roughly 100,000 ballots left to count, and they’re mostly mail-in ballots, which favor Democrats. So we think Cortez Masto will probably take the lead once they’re counted.

[cuervo72]

Yeah, I dunno. I feel like if Murdoch wants him out, he'll be out.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

It's still inconceivable to me that the Democrats might gain seats in the Senate. Republicans just gave away Pennsylvania, Arizona, and Nevada this year.

They didn't give them away, Trump took them...

[Lathum]

The Dems really need to make sure they keep young voters engaged. They need to be a presence on every college campus, in cities, on tik tok etc...if they can keep young voters coming to the polls it is game over for republicans.

[Ksyrup]

Perhaps they can partner with MTV for an Autotune the Vote campaign.

[Ksyrup]

In a new batch of 18.4k ballots counted in Washoe County, here are the #nvsen results:
- Cortez Masto received 11.2k votes (61 percent)
- Laxalt received 6.6k votes (36 percent)

This drops Laxalt’s statewide lead from 13.6k to 9k. pic.twitter.com/d9XKtewS97

— Sean Golonka (@s_golonka) November 11, 2022

[Ksyrup]

Maricopa County has tabulated 78,869 ballots received prior to ED.

Batch breakdown
Governor@KariLake 45.2@katiehobbs 54.8

Senate@bgmasters 42.6@CaptMarkKelly 55.7

AZSOS@RealMarkFinchem 42.8@Adrian_Fontes 57.2

AZAG@AbrahamHamadeh 45.6@krismayes 54.4

— The AZ - abc15 - Data Guru (@Garrett_Archer) November 11, 2022

[Ksyrup]

Unfortunately, looks like Boebert is going to narrowly win.

[Brian Swartz]

Originally Posted by bob

Because votes in one election don’t count in other elections? I mean, that’s sorta how it all works.

Yep, this. It's still a democracy, it's just not a 'pure democracy'. There's nothing undemocratic about it - what would make it undemocratic is if the top vote-getter in each district wasn't elected.

The way to get rid of this kind of thing is to do away with the idea of 1 representative = 1 district. Everyone votes collectively for multiple candidates, and the Top X number are elected. Of course then you don't have anyone representing the interests of your specific district either.

You'd need to either drastically shrink the number of House members, or have everyone vote for dozens of people - hundreds if you went national with it.

[BishopMVP]

Originally Posted by Lathum

The Dems really need to make sure they keep young voters engaged. They need to be a presence on every college campus, in cities, on tik tok etc...if they can keep young voters coming to the polls it is game over for republicans.

Politicians on TikTok... yeah I'm good. Young people weren't engaged because of something the Dems did, it was because the Republicans overreached with abortion.

Looking at Arizona closer I think Kelly will clearly win, and Hobbs looks good over Lake but that is still up in the air a bit since Maricopa County is legitimately bad at this process. Does appear the election day mail in ballots are going like 2018 instead of 2020 in other counties though which is a good sign for Dems.

[SirFozzie]

Seeing some predictions up the D's total to 219, which would be hilarious.

Serious Question: How the hell would they going to decide who's the speaker of the house if that happens? I can just imagine the horse trading.. "Ok, you're the Speaker of the House on Tuesdays, Thursdays, and alternate Sundays.. she's the speaker of the house on Mondays, Wednesdays, Fridays, and the opposite sundays"

Either that or we use the power of SCIENCE to create a true soulless abomination, fusing McCarthy and Pelosi into one hideously deformed.. well.. they wouldn't look much different, now that I think about it.

Someone reminded me that 435 representatives, 100 Senators +3 DC electoral votes is how we get 538.

[Thomkal]

Originally Posted by BishopMVP

Politicians on TikTok... yeah I'm good. Young people weren't engaged because of something the Dems did, it was because the Republicans overreached with abortion.

Looking at Arizona closer I think Kelly will clearly win, and Hobbs looks good over Lake but that is still up in the air a bit since Maricopa County is legitimately bad at this process. Does appear the election day mail in ballots are going like 2018 instead of 2020 in other counties though which is a good sign for Dems.

They did call it for Kelly today

[QuikSand]

I bought PredictIt shares very cheap of the D/D outcome in both chambers, and in the next few days I think it's possible that rises from its 9c price.

There's one race in MD-6 that is being called leaning-R by most national analysts but it's very likely to stay D, once our absurd vote counting process works itself out.

I don't think the final result is going to be D/D but I'm hoping to sell on a bump in the next few days before it call comes into true focus.

[Brian Swartz]

Originally Posted by SirFozzie

Seeing some predictions up the D's total to 219, which would be hilarious.

Serious Question: How the hell would they going to decide who's the speaker of the house if that happens? I can just imagine the horse trading.. "Ok, you're the Speaker of the House on Tuesdays, Thursdays, and alternate Sundays.. she's the speaker of the house on Mondays, Wednesdays, Fridays, and the opposite sundays"

Whatever party has 218 or more chooses the speaker?

[SirFozzie]

Originally Posted by Brian Swartz

Whatever party has 218 or more chooses the speaker?

yeah, I was thinking 438 (as I said, forgot the last three comes from DC electoral votes). Still, it'd be fun (and with retirements etcetera)..

Oh, and be ready for a TON of dirty tricks/offers for a cushy retirement if it's as close as they're projecting (D's in states where R governors would appoint replacements, and vice versa)

[sterlingice]

Originally Posted by SirFozzie

Either that or we use the power of SCIENCE to create a true soulless abomination, fusing McCarthy and Pelosi into one hideously deformed.. well.. they wouldn't look much different, now that I think about it.

What a terrifying monster

SI

[NobodyHere]

I would would hate to be the speaker of the house when my party has 219 seats. Given today's red-blue divide it means any member of your party could sink legislation.

It'd be like having a house full of Joe Manchins.

[Brian Swartz]

Yep. As mentioned before that's why I don't think it matters who wins really. Yes they get to set the agenda as the majority but who cares? You're not passing anything of significance anyway. Both parties are going to have to run for 2024 on 'give us control and we'll do XYZ, we need more seats to make it happen'. It also makes a perfect time for somebody like Pelosi to retire IMO.

[sterlingice]

It will matter for committee leadership and for stuff like farcical investigation. Not as important as, say, approving judges, but not nothing by a long shot.

SI

[Brian Swartz]

I don't think those things actually matter though. Congressional investigations don't actually accomplish anything these days. Committee leaderships matters if you're actually going to be able to pass something, but otherwhise ...

[JPhillips]

Originally Posted by NobodyHere

I would would hate to be the speaker of the house when my party has 219 seats. Given today's red-blue divide it means any member of your party could sink legislation.

It'd be like having a house full of Joe Manchins.

It should be a golden age, any coalition of 219 could pass bills, but the pressure from leadership against discharge petitions will be so great nothing will happen.

The real fun will be when a member of the majority dies or resigns. A world where each special election can change the House will be nuts. Biden should offer a plum cabinet job to a moderate GOPer and see what happens.

[Solecismic]

Meanwhile, Trump is twittering vaguely racist tweets (or whatever passes for tweeting on his platform) about Glenn Youngkin (apparently, the high schooler who resides in his brain just noticed that the name would sound Chinese if pronounced differently).

He's like an aging pitcher who has lost his fastball, is still convinced he can win 20 games, and blames the manager, his teammates, the umpires and eventually the fans themselves when he can no longer strike anyone out.

[SirFozzie]

and the Hawley-Rubio faction of GOP is attacking Mitch McConnell because apparently they're idiots.

Look, I hate McConnell but A) He's the most clued in politician on the R side about realpolitik, B) They're mostly attacking him because he said the equivalent of "Geez, stop with these clown car nominations, or we might not win", and guess what, many of them DID NOT WIN. So, they're attacking the bearer of bad news.

Mitch McConnell Could Be Done: Senators Rubio And Hawley Call for Delay in GOP Leadership Vote - DC Enquirer

[sterlingice]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

It should be a golden age, any coalition of 219 could pass bills, but the pressure from leadership against discharge petitions will be so great nothing will happen.

The real fun will be when a member of the majority dies or resigns. A world where each special election can change the House will be nuts. Biden should offer a plum cabinet job to a moderate GOPer and see what happens.

This is the sad thing. This is why it feels a bit hollow whenever anyone is like "well, I like when the Presidency and Congress are divided". In theory, hey, let's just work together and get re-elected. Instead, nope.

SI

[cuervo72]

Originally Posted by sterlingice

This is the sad thing. This is why it feels a bit hollow whenever anyone is like "well, I like when the Presidency and Congress are divided". In theory, hey, let's just work together and get re-elected. Instead, nope.

SI

Or as we used to call it around here, the "Buccaneer."

[cuervo72]

Originally Posted by QuikSand

There's one race in MD-6 that is being called leaning-R by most national analysts but it's very likely to stay D, once our absurd vote counting process works itself out.

"Parrott called Trone to concede on Friday afternoon, both campaigns confirmed, and Trone described the call as “very gracious.”"

[Ksyrup]

Originally Posted by Ksyrup

I saw one (of many, I assume) GOP pundits arguing that GOP men needed to marry all of these Dem under 40 women. The implication being, of course, that once married, the woman would cease having a mind of her own and do what the husband directs. These people are just terrible human beings.

This is the exact kind of stuff I was talking about a couple of days ago...

Unmarried women in America are lost, miserable, addicted to SSRIs and alcohol, wracked with guilt from abortion, and wandering from partner to partner.

They are the Democrats’ core base now, and the Democrats will do everything possible to manufacture more of them.

— Joel Berry (@JoelWBerry) November 11, 2022

[sterlingice]

Originally Posted by Ksyrup

This is the exact kind of stuff I was talking about a couple of days ago...

I saw "lol - oh Babylon Bee - that's a parody site". And then looked at more Tweets and was like "whoa, that dude is actually serious - you're not supposed to sample the product".

SI

[albionmoonlight]

Originally Posted by NobodyHere

I would would hate to be the speaker of the house when my party has 219 seats. Given today's red-blue divide it means any member of your party could sink legislation.

It'd be like having a house full of Joe Manchins.

Especially if you are the GOP and you have your razor thin majority due to New York going way redder than the rest of the country in this one election. A lot of those reps in democratic leaning NY districts are not going to be on board with all MAGA all the time.

Indeed, they would probably love to work with the Senate and White House to pass moderate legislation. But the rest of the GOP caucus won’t let them.

[sterlingice]

Originally Posted by cuervo72

Or as we used to call it around here, the "Buccaneer."

RIP, Obstinate one

SI

[albionmoonlight]

As someone who wants what’s best for America, I want the Democrats to hold the house and senate. As someone who wants what’s best for the Democrats, I guess I would want the GOP to have a super thin house majority so it would have to constantly show its ass for two years before the 2024 election.

[Edward64]

CNN reporting that Cortez Masto is about 800 down now.

Looks like the mail in ballots are leaning significantly to the Dems.

They think about 68,000 left to count in NV.

[albionmoonlight]

If the Georgia runoff were for senate control, then I am not sure which way it would go.

But if the Dems have 50 votes, I just do not see the GOP enthusiasm to go out and vote for Walker with nothing else on the ballot.

[Edward64]

If control is not on the line, I agree that Warnock has a better chance.

Lot's of old senators though. Not sure how many of them have governors in a different party.

[GrantDawg]

Idk. The most dependable votes to show for a runoff election is Seniors and hard-coded GOP. Without the Senate control being in play, the money for the Democrat GOTV is going to be much smaller. Democrats depend on the youth vote, how engaged are they going to be? Walker might back-door win if the Dens don't put everything into this.

Sent from my SM-G996U using Tapatalk

[larrymcg421]

Democrats like Warnock way more than the GOP likes Walker. That will be the difference.

[Edward64]

I swear that tonight is the last night I'll be glued to election coverage. Back to normal for me tomorrow.

[Edward64]

CNN is making a call that Kelly wins. So 49-49.

[Ksyrup]

The Maricopa batch is 74k. @katiehobbs 54%@karilake 45.9%

— The AZ - abc15 - Data Guru (@Garrett_Archer) November 12, 2022