Werewolf CXXVII -- The Godfather, VILLAGERS WIN

[JAG]

It's also pretty unusual to have four non-voters D1.

[CrimsonFox]

Yes. As unusual as a day one noon vote for west coasters. SO would anyone care to add anything constructive to the argument?

[Autumn]

CF, everybody always thinks the people voting for them are wolves. Make your case for other candidates if you think we're really off. "They're voting for me," isn't going to convince me that someone's a wolf. I agree we generally go after voters, not non-voters, but I think it's good to get extra posts from someone we have less evidence on too.

[tyketime]

Originally Posted by CrimsonFox

I am pretty confident I have at least 2 wolves voting for me right now. This is actually the first time I've ever seen people "working through the unknowns" instead of voting off things you do know. People are only voting for me now because I"m being both angry and vocal about it. If I were a wolf, I wouldn't be saying a thing. Don't know which CrimsonFox you've been watching Autumn, I always get defensive when I'm getting voted for. Only as a wolf do I clam up.

OK. Since I'm the one accused of starting this, I'll put myself in jeopardy for the sake of the argument:

UNVOTE CRIMSON FOX

Now by no means does this indicate I don't think you are acting very defensive. But before the vote gets completely out of reach and just a race between the two of us, let's have some conversation about other mauboy1 voters... or the other non-voters.

Anyone...???

[Autumn]

For the record, CF,I don't think it's suspicious that you didn't vote. I'm voting you because you gave me the only vibe out of the four I had to choose from. I predicted several non-votes at the beginning of the day, I think that's completely expected and nothing to do with wolves.

[CrimsonFox]

Gee I thought I did that. Okay, quiz...

tyketime, aside from "I missed the vote", why do you think I'm guilty?

bhlloy, why did you quickly jump onto tyketime's vote against me?

Autumn, JAG, Lathum - Why were you so quick to jump on board the metagame train of voting for a nonvoter? If I were not in the picture, who else's ACTUAL vote is pinging you?

[Autumn]

We don't have much of anything to go on in the voting, in my opinion, unless we assume one of the other vote getters was a wolf. Nobody ever wants a tie, especially in this ruleset, and so Saldana's and Zinto's votes don't really look particularly suspicious to me. The day 1 vote will be more useful in a couple days, in my opinion.

[Autumn]

I think I"ve already answered you, CF. I'm not voting for non-voters, I'm voting for fishy players.

[CrimsonFox]

Originally Posted by tyketime

OK. Since I'm the one accused of starting this, I'll put myself in jeopardy for the sake of the argument:

UNVOTE CRIMSON FOX

Now by no means does this indicate I don't think you are acting very defensive. But before the vote gets completely out of reach and just a race between the two of us, let's have some conversation about other mauboy1 voters... or the other non-voters.

Anyone...???

THANK you! Yes, I fully admit I am VERY defensive and even get myself worked up over it. But having a reasonable discussion is all I ask. You won't be getting whacked tonight by anything _I_ did that's for sure.

[J23]

Originally Posted by CrimsonFox

I am pretty confident I have at least 2 wolves voting for me right now.

I'd be pretty amazed if 2 of the people voting on you were wolves honestly.

There were 19 total players. I'd guess 4 or 5 wolves? You're saying you're confident that 40% or 50% of the wolves decided to put a vote on you this early? Seriously?

[Lathum]

My reasoning is I think it would be very easy for someone to miss the vote yesterday and use the excuse of an early deadline. Surely not all 4 of them are wolves, but I think it is possible a wolf would incorporate this strategy.

I then don't find it a coincidence that all 4 vote missers show up within an hour of the vote. All things equal I don't suspect one more than the other and would be happy to switch my vote if there can be an argument made for someone else, but right now I want to cast a meaningful vote.

[The Jackal]

There's still 3 hours left, CF, and calling people and their logic stupid in a fiery way probably isn't going to help your cause.

I know I've been pissed off in the past (and by past I mean LAST GAME), but if you are truly a villager it's best to be calm, because a wolf always has more to lose than a villager by getting lynched. So when people come out vehemently in defense of themselves (especially with only 1 vote, as Autumn pointed out), it smells a bit desperate. And desperation is most often found in wolves.

[CrimsonFox]

That's the weird thing about this game. If you argue, for any reason, about anything, people say "OH! THAT's fishy!"

[The Jackal]

Originally Posted by J23

I'd be pretty amazed if 2 of the people voting on you were wolves honestly.

There were 19 total players. I'd guess 4 or 5 wolves? You're saying you're confident that 40% or 50% of the wolves decided to put a vote on you this early? Seriously?

And if two wolves were actually on him in 3/4 votes that'd mean that the other two candidates HAD to be wolves today, and that'd be a crazy unlucky situation. So I agree, that's a bit of a reach to be sure about.

[CrimsonFox]

Originally Posted by J23

I'd be pretty amazed if 2 of the people voting on you were wolves honestly.

There were 19 total players. I'd guess 4 or 5 wolves? You're saying you're confident that 40% or 50% of the wolves decided to put a vote on you this early? Seriously?

Well since I'm a villager and I know that fact, jumping on a bandwagon is something indeed wolves do.

[The Jackal]

Originally Posted by CrimsonFox

That's the weird thing about this game. If you argue, for any reason, about anything, people say "OH! THAT's fishy!"

I think it's less arguing and more the tone of the posts, at least that's what I've found in the past. It's very, very easy to rub people the wrong way.

[Autumn]

I feel for you, CF. If you're a villager, it's a frustrating place to be. But I'm not going to move my vote just because the person I'm voting doesn't like it. Obviously if you were a wolf you'd be doing the same thing. I don't have any evidence on you, nobody does, it's day two. But moving off of you for no real reason isn't going to help us. In fact, if we did, and we lynch a villager, we'd just come back to you, and anyone who moved off of you.

Lathum, I agree that's certainly a possibility, but I don't see the advantage really for a wolf missing a vote. It shines just as much attention, if not more, on them than any actual vote they could have made.

[The Jackal]

It would be fairly hypocritical of me to vote for someone for missing the vote yesterday, so there's no way I'm going to use that logic. I hope that what Lathum said isn't true, that a wolf purposely missed the vote to be able to escape D1 vote history. I find that to be against the spirit of the game, and while I know this game is about lying and backhanded moves, I tend to not use that as an examination point. If one us is a wolf it'll come out a different way.

[JAG]

Originally Posted by CrimsonFox

Autumn, JAG, Lathum - Why were you so quick to jump on board the metagame train of voting for a nonvoter? If I were not in the picture, who else's ACTUAL vote is pinging you?

As I pointed out, my vote had nothing to do with metagame and everything to do with getting information about those whom we have no information. Even if you think there were as many as two wolves on Mau voters, those odds arent much better than just voting non-Mau voters (probably 3 out of 10 vs 2 out of 7). Lack of information tends to be the biggest problem for villagers which is why a number of us were trying to get quieter players more involved early on.

Other than you, I wonder about DV (quick 2nd vote on tyke), Danny (his play this game is almost the polar opposite of last game, though he might just be busy), bhlloy (if the kills on CR + Mau weren't a coincidence), and to a lesser degree Jeff.

[tyketime]

Originally Posted by CrimsonFox

tyketime, aside from "I missed the vote", why do you think I'm guilty?

I never said you were guilty. I clearly stated in my posts that I wanted to look at the four non-voters. I then said that of the four, you were the only one to post anything other than "Oops... I missed the deadline". I wanted to get an early vote in (there was Day 1 drama with my vote) and decided to put that vote on you. I believe it was either the first or second vote cast in total, and for sure the first one on you. Within 15 minutes, you responded in what I thought (and others have confirmed) was a very defensive post, and then proceeded to vote me. I thought it was an odd reaction, so I've decided to keep my vote on you. I grant you that you have certainly been active on Day 2, but you must realize that much of your reaction has been accusatory and derogatory. In my opinion, your responses seem to be much grander than the situation called for. For the second day in a row, I am the current highest vote-getter. Yet I'm not attacking others. I'm just defending my position.

I've put my "money where my mouth is" by unvoting you and making me the current vote leader. I'm willing to look elsewhere if the conversation steers me in a different direction. But at this point, anyone other than you would be just as random as what I argued against on Day 1.

[CrimsonFox]

Originally Posted by The Jackal

There's still 3 hours left, CF, and calling people and their logic stupid in a fiery way probably isn't going to help your cause.

I know I've been pissed off in the past (and by past I mean LAST GAME), but if you are truly a villager it's best to be calm, because a wolf always has more to lose than a villager by getting lynched. So when people come out vehemently in defense of themselves (especially with only 1 vote, as Autumn pointed out), it smells a bit desperate. And desperation is most often found in wolves.

I don't really do calm. I wish I did. I'm always desperate when I'm being voted for as there is a chance I"ll be removed from the game, when I'd rather keep playing. But you'll probably think something fishy of THAT too. He wants to keep playing? He must be a wolf.

Last count I had 5 votes on me, not one. So let's call a spade what it is please. I answered tyke to begin with because I like to actually answer questions, especially when I'm voted for, and really feel that voting for someone under these unusual circumstances is lame. Getting further votes just because I'm arguing or explaining myself takes me from slightly defensive to angry as illogic makes me angry.

[bhlloy]

CF - I put the second on you because I wasn't comfortable with the run you, Danny and DV put on tyketime, and I wanted to get a third candidate out there from that bloc of people who missed day 1.

I'm still leaning towards ending up on somebody who will tell us something about the votes on day 1 (candidates would seem to be tyke or sal) but your reaction since you got a couple votes has been.... interesting to say the least.

[Autumn]

Originally Posted by JAG

Other than you, I wonder about DV (quick 2nd vote on tyke), Danny (his play this game is almost the polar opposite of last game, though he might just be busy), bhlloy (if the kills on CR + Mau weren't a coincidence), and to a lesser degree Jeff.

What do you mean about Bhlloy, JAG?

[The Jackal]

Originally Posted by CrimsonFox

I don't really do calm. I wish I did. I'm always desperate when I'm being voted for as there is a chance I"ll be removed from the game, when I'd rather keep playing. But you'll probably think something fishy of THAT too. He wants to keep playing? He must be a wolf.

Last count I had 5 votes on me, not one. So let's call a spade what it is please. I answered tyke to begin with because I like to actually answer questions, especially when I'm voted for, and really feel that voting for someone under these unusual circumstances is lame. Getting further votes just because I'm arguing or explaining myself takes me from slightly defensive to angry as illogic makes me angry.

I know what you mean, villagers don't want to leave the game either. I was just trying to offer up a bit of explanation about how the tone of posts can give people "gut feelings". I never said it was logical.

I fully expect villagers and wolves alike to defend their positions, and you've made people engage in discussion with you at the least, so that's a start.

[JAG]

Originally Posted by Autumn

What do you mean about Bhlloy, JAG?

If we find Apollina is a wolf, then the voting on Mau and NK of CR was probably not a coincidence but an attempt to get Michael Corleone out of the game via lynch. If the voting on Mau wasn't a coincidence, then bhlloy's opening vote on Mau looks the worst. But I admittedly am not sure how likely that is so I feel ify chasing it now.

[CrimsonFox]

Originally Posted by The Jackal

I know what you mean, villagers don't want to leave the game either. I was just trying to offer up a bit of explanation about how the tone of posts can give people "gut feelings". I never said it was logical.

I fully expect villagers and wolves alike to defend their positions, and you've made people engage in discussion with you at the least, so that's a start.

Again thank you! That's all I ask. And yes, I've never understood why arguing or even being angry pings people when both villagers AND wolves are going to get defensive. It's about the people not about the wolfiness. You have to look at WHAT they say if you are looking at anything but vote count.

[tyketime]

So while I'm still dangling precariously in the wind, do we have an updated vote count?

[Autumn]

Looking back, I agree that Saldana's vote yesterday is kind of odd. Frankly, I didn't vote there because I also find Eaglefan voting Saldana twice kind of odd as well. Narcizo I think is making good points, but I'm not sure about jumping there. Tyketime, you have to give some props for moving his vote off CF, even if temporarily, as a wolf in his spot more likely wants to bury CF. Though a cagey wolf might make that move hoping to move CF's vote off of him. (or the chance they're both wolves). Jeff061 I guess just has a vote for putting the #2 vote on Mauboy yesterday. I'm more suspicious of Zinto than Jeff at this point.

[Autumn]

I think this is right, Tyke.

Jeff061 3 – Zinto(242), The Jackal(316), mckerney(322)
Crimson Fox 4 – bhlloy(317), Autumn (337), JAG (341), lathum (347)
Tyketime 4 – CrimsonFox (290), Darth Vilus (295), Danny(315), jeff061 (338)
Saldana 2 – Eaglefan (294), Narcizo (298)

[tyketime]

yep, I was just being lazy. That's what I get too.

Left: J23, Saldana, MartinD, tyketime

[CrimsonFox]

And since you want me to engage in more discussion, I'll say the people that caught my eye day one:

Narcizo - For taking up a "leading the charge" kind of stance day one.
Danny - Being totally tight-lipped so far.
Lathum - Ordinarily I would see him leading a charge on someone (like maybe to get a villager lynched ). He's also been fairly quiet so far. Usually when I'm this forward or strident, he or saldana usually say something to me by now (like "don't call people names" or something). altho neither has. Both are pretty quiet.


oh, yeah. Since you did it for me, tyke,

unvote tyketime

I really don't know anything about you yet tyke except that playing with you as a wolf two days ago, you are very crafty. But you are also engaging and talking to me now. And you unvoted. I'm not sure a wolf would do either this early.
As for DV, Jackal, Danny (the other non-voters), I don't get any feeling except like I said, they have all been pretty quiet. Don't have any idea why they're voting actually.

[CrimsonFox]

I meant two games ago, not two days.

[JAG]

From what I've seen of Zinto as a villager, he has behaved exactly as I would have expected this game.

[saldana]

CF is reacting to the run on him the same way he has in the past, and i dont recall him ever being a wolf and behaving this way, so i will give him the benefit of the doubt today.

i would have liked to go to EF since he seems to have a hard on for me with no real reason, but i am not going to waste my vote, especially since i am not too far out of contention myself
vote tyketime

[CrimsonFox]

Incidently I'll even say this. Someone passed me the gun last night. I don't know if it was random. I've already decided who to pass it to. NOt sure if I should say. What do you think. I'm thinking I should not say at all because then the wolves will know.

[JAG]

Well that makes things interesting.

[tyketime]

Originally Posted by saldana

i would have liked to go to EF since he seems to have a hard on for me with no real reason, but i am not going to waste my vote, especially since i am not too far out of contention myself
vote tyketime

Zoinks!
Care to share any other definitive reason, or are you another drive-by tyketime voter?

[CrimsonFox]

Originally Posted by saldana

i would have liked to go to EF since he seems to have a hard on for me with no real reason, but i am not going to waste my vote, especially since i am not too far out of contention myself

It could be leftover Valentine feelings. His day one vote seemed random enough (typical day 1). Going with you again day 2, I'm not sure what to think. It does seem a tad odd.

[J23]

I think it's a mistake to disclose if you have items openly in the thread. I'm assuming (and perhaps incorrectly) that if you are nightkilled with an item the wolves would get it.

[CrimsonFox]

Really doubt that. More likely they will disappear. Or even more likely they are passed before you are killed.

[JAG]

Unvote CrimsonFox

We don't know if items get passed before lynching, so it's possible if CF is lynched that the gun would move randomly. I would certainly think a wolf would keep quiet about having received that.

[The Jackal]

Originally Posted by CrimsonFox

As for DV, Jackal, Danny (the other non-voters), I don't get any feeling except like I said, they have all been pretty quiet. Don't have any idea why they're voting actually.

I can't speak for the other two, but my vote on Jeff is purely an educated guess that there was a wolf on mau early. There isn't much to separate people at this point in their posts, so it's just a shot at a theory.

[tyketime]

Four votes on me, and not a single solid reason given for any of them. Does that strike anyone else as odd?

[mckerney]

Originally Posted by The Jackal

I can't speak for the other two, but my vote on Jeff is purely an educated guess that there was a wolf on mau early. There isn't much to separate people at this point in their posts, so it's just a shot at a theory.

Exact same reasoning for my vote, probably an early wolf vote on mau. If that's true then our best odds of catching a wolf are by looking there.

[mckerney]

Originally Posted by tyketime

Four votes on me, and not a single solid reason given for any of them. Does that strike anyone else as odd?

A bit.

[mckerney]

Originally Posted by J23

I think it's a mistake to disclose if you have items openly in the thread. I'm assuming (and perhaps incorrectly) that if you are nightkilled with an item the wolves would get it.

That makes me more worried about the wolves finding out where the items going than where it is right now. Still probably not a good idea to share that you have something though.

[CrimsonFox]

I currently have a minor trust circle of 2 people.

One is JAG for just unvoting me instead of letting me hang.
The other is J23 for his day one vote switch off Chief Rum.

Originally Posted by J23

unvote Chief Rum
vote Tyketime

No need to leave my vote out there as wasted. Really wish more people would have put in a vote when they checked in.

SInce Chief is a villager, he could easily have left his vote on him with no repercussions.


A couple other vote changers caught my eye. mckerney's vote changed seemed to be purely defensive since he got lots of votes. The others were Narcizo and Autumn. They both could be wolves with this kind of action, making sure to get the votes in the right place.

Originally Posted by Narcizo

Ah Mauboy - I've seen him around a bit but he doesn't seem to have said anything other than that he won't be around much. I remember one game were we were wolves and despite a godawful voting record he managed to keep out of the firing line until I got him killed with a huge blunder.

Anyway you can also read his comment about following Lathum as a pre-emptive shot at him should tyke show up as a villager. A bit blatant but it's day one what else do we have to go on. I'm going to guess/hope that if mauboy is a villager and had an important role he'd have made a bit more of an argument about things.

Unvote Mckerney
Vote Mauboy

Originally Posted by Autumn

i don't like to see anyone disappear from the voting. With the possibility that Narcizo and Mckerney are wolves, and Narcizo threw a vote on him not expecting it to matter (and in interest of keeping things close for those last 8 votes).

UNVOTE TYKETIME
VOTE MCKERNEY

[JAG]

I'm thinking there's no way you should say who you are passing the gun to. If the wolves kill that target, it would end up moving randomly I would suspect.

[mckerney]

Originally Posted by JAG

I'm thinking there's no way you should say who you are passing the gun to. If the wolves kill that target, it would end up moving randomly I would suspect.

I'd guess it would move randomly or a wolf would get it, so a bad result either way.

[bhlloy]

Unvote CF

Vote Saldana

I agree that CF gets the benefit of the doubt today. Unfortunately for sal I think lynching him provides the most info about day 1. If he is wolf then it looks very bad for mckerney or tyketime. If he is clean then I'm pretty convinced there is no pattern in day one voting and we can move on from that