Invasion of Ukraine

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by Poli

My sister's husband is from Russia. Her brother in law is in the Russian army. He was along the border just before this started. They haven't heard from him since the day before the invasion is my understanding.

Sorry Poli. I know we are generally pro-Ukraine on FOFC. I don't mean any disrespect or seem to be insensitive to your sister's family.

Best wishes to them.

[Poli]

Originally Posted by Edward64

Sorry Poli. I know we are generally pro-Ukraine on FOFC. I don't mean any disrespect or seem to be insensitive to your sister's family.

Best wishes to them.

FWIW, they're pro Ukraine. They have a number of friends from Ukraine. One of them dressed as Santa for my nephew a few years back when they visited over Christmas. I don't think it's a stretch to say they're devastated by this.

[Solecismic]

Originally Posted by Qwikshot

They can't win the war because they cannot invade Russia. All they can do is drag it out to the point of stalemate or regime change.

Neither will happen, Russia will send as much in resources to grind away humanity in Ukraine. If they cannot win, they will eradicate.

Russia will also not replace Putin. He's got a firm grasp.

Ukraine will be whittled away. The occupation zones will be devoid of humanity but will fly the Russian flag.

If Ukraine were to mount an offensive in Russia, I'm pretty sure Putin would use the nuclear option to deal with it. Small war heads against military targets, with international rebuke, to full scale warheads of cities.

The West will do nothing.

If Putin can't have Ukraine, then he'll make it uninhabitable. If the West allows for it, he'll go after other former Soviet Bloc nations, all with China shrugging.

That's what it looks like. In terms of tactics, we keep hearing that the skies are open, but what's not in evidence is all that much of Russia's air power. As bad as things are right now, they could be so much worse with steady air bombardment.

We can't stop it without starting WWIII. Xi could stop it, but he knows we will do anything we can to prevent WWIII and that serves his interests.

It surprises me that Putin is willing to sacrifice so many of his own troops. He seems quite secure and Russian police have come down quite harshly on war protests, arresting thousands. Putin is changing laws (unanimously in the Duma - debate is not welcome), driving out the media.

[PilotMan]

Which is exactly what I think the West understands.

"Look, if you want to shit in the sandbox, we're not going to stop you, but we've told you time, and time again, not to. If you decide you do want to shit in the sandbox, we're going to shove your nose deep down into it. Sure, you'll have the sandbox the way you wanted, but you should have to think "was it worth it" every single day, for the rest of your life."

[Solecismic]

Originally Posted by PilotMan

Which is exactly what I think the West understands.

"Look, if you want to shit in the sandbox, we're not going to stop you, but we've told you time, and time again, not to. If you decide you do want to shit in the sandbox, we're going to shove your nose deep down into it. Sure, you'll have the sandbox the way you wanted, but you should have to think "was it worth it" every single day, for the rest of your life."

Putin seems to think that he wants the sandbox to be the same size it was at that arbitrary instant he seems to think was the height of historical significance and he seems to think of shit as any sign of disobedience to leadership.

We might wonder why the silly Lindsey Graham plea doesn't work. People with some power - enough to get close to Putin - have too much to lose.

[PilotMan]

As usual, Fareed is on point, with solid reasoning and great insight.

https://wapo.st/3Cc3ash

{it's a gifted article, so you won't need to worry about the pay wall; thank you PM}

[BigDPW]

Originally Posted by PilotMan

As usual, Fareed is on point, with solid reasoning and great insight.

https://wapo.st/3Cc3ash

{it's a gifted article, so you won't need to worry about the pay wall; thank you PM}

Thanks for sharing. Interesting take that I mostly agree with. I do have a problem with reentering the Iran Nuclear deal though. That should be off limits and we should do everything in our power to limit another enemy from having nuclear weapons which is what I think the ultimate result of such a deal would lead to. Those guys can't be trusted and we can't police their nuclear ambitions as well as some would like to think by engaging with them.

[RainMaker]

This is an interesting article. What if Russia's Air Force just sucks?

[Lathum]

I think given what we are seeing on the front d is the Russian military is a bit of a paper tiger. They have numbers and nukes. That’s about it. Seems a lot of their equipment is old and poorly maintained. Their soldiers poorly trained and funded , and they lack a cohesive strategy. I think they really anticipated using smoke and mirrors to get Ukraine to roll over and create a pulley stage. They clearly weren’t ready for the fight they got. I agree with others without help they will grind them down but I think if you gave Putin truth potion he would say it’s not worth it.

[GrantDawg]

It is the sane thing we found after the fall of the Iron Curtain. The USSR was supposed to have huge numbers of quality modern planes and tanks. We found they actually had very little function high end equipment. Most of what they had was grounded because of lack of maintenance. Much of the exaggeration at that time was played up by the defense industry that is constantly pushing more money.

Sent from my SM-G996U using Tapatalk

[Ryche]

Originally Posted by PilotMan

As usual, Fareed is on point, with solid reasoning and great insight.

https://wapo.st/3Cc3ash

{it's a gifted article, so you won't need to worry about the pay wall; thank you PM}

One major problem with all that, oil producers in the U.S. are showing no interest in upping production.

One example

[tarcone]

Social Media wins this war. And I believe we have tapped into what social media should be used for, instead of what it is.

[RainMaker]

lol

Treasury Department assures Wall Street it can still trade Russian oil and gas https://t.co/CQpf42S1As

— CNBC (@CNBC) March 4, 2022

[Atocep]

Originally Posted by Lathum

I think given what we are seeing on the front d is the Russian military is a bit of a paper tiger. They have numbers and nukes. That’s about it. Seems a lot of their equipment is old and poorly maintained. Their soldiers poorly trained and funded , and they lack a cohesive strategy. I think they really anticipated using smoke and mirrors to get Ukraine to roll over and create a pulley stage. They clearly weren’t ready for the fight they got. I agree with others without help they will grind them down but I think if you gave Putin truth potion he would say it’s not worth it.

Not really a surprise for me based on what what I described earlier in the thread about the many people I know that have done joint operations with the Russians over the years.

One thing Putin did years ago was realize he can't compete dollar for dollar with the US and China in regards to conventional warfare so they started pumping money into their cyber warfare divisions.

[JPhillips]

More on the epic catastrophe in the making for the 64 km truck convoy.

Lady's and Gentlemen, boys & girls, it is time saddle up for another installment of the "Mud and Truck Maintenance in Ukraine" feed.

And this one will be a doozy, because we are talking about Russian truck refueling in the 64km column north of Kyiv. ��

1/ pic.twitter.com/akTbOuo4tI

— Trent Telenko (@TrentTelenko) March 4, 2022

[CrimsonFox]

‘Our families are dying,’ say demonstrators as truck convoy rolls to Buckingham Fountain to show support for Ukraine, call for peace - Chicago Tribune

What the hell is with convoys lately? What is this? The 70s???

All I remember growing up listening to Larry Lujack on the radio was that "The Dan Ryan is fucked"

[Edward64]

I'm looking forward to reviews on the DJI Mini 3 supposedly coming out in Mar. Makes sense the consumer stuff would be used for reconnaisance.

https://apnews.com/article/russia-uk...70296eb0188212

One entrepreneur who runs a retail store selling consumer drones in the capital said its entire stock of some 300 drones made by Chinese company DJI has been dispersed for the cause. Others are working to get more drones across the border from friends and colleagues in Poland and elsewhere in Europe.

I did not know this though.

But there’s a downside: DJI, the leading provider of consumer drones in Ukraine and around the world, provides a tool that can easily pinpoint the location of an inexperienced drone operator, and no one really knows what the Chinese firm or its customers might do with that data. That makes some volunteers uneasy. DJI declined to discuss specifics about how it has responded to the war.

[Edward64]

Pretty amazing footage of a helicopter being shot down.

Ukrainian soldiers shoot down Russian helicopter in shocking battlefield footageÂ* | Daily Mail Online

https://videos.dailymail.co.uk/previ...1569464630.mp4

[Flasch186]

When The images and videos start coming out in a few weeks of citizenry looking like skeletons and dying the west will likely be tested to make a decision of whether to actually let it happen again or put their money where their mouths are.

Scary days in front of us I’m afraid


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[Lathum]

apparently Brittney Griner has been in a Russian jail for almost a month because she was caught in an airport with a vape cartridge.

[NobodyHere]

Originally Posted by Lathum

apparently Brittney Griner has been in a Russian jail for almost a month because she was caught in an airport with a vape cartridge.

I have trouble feeling sorry for someone who protested the national anthem being arrested in Russia.

[sterlingice]

Originally Posted by NobodyHere

I have trouble feeling sorry for someone who protested the national anthem being arrested in Russia.

Definitely equivalent

SI

[Racer]

Originally Posted by NobodyHere

I have trouble feeling sorry for someone who protested the national anthem being arrested in Russia.

Nationalism is dangerous.

[Galaril]

Originally Posted by Racer

Nationalism is dangerous.

Yes indeed.

[tarcone]

If the USA and Russia joined forces would the world tremble?

[molson]

Originally Posted by tarcone

If the USA and Russia joined forces would the world tremble?

We may find out in 2024!

[JPhillips]

How much less effective would a USA/RU partnership be rather than the USA on our own?

[bronconick]

Phillips P. OBrien on Twitter: "Indeed looking at this @WarOnTheRocks estimate, they Russians will struggle at 90 miles from working railheads. And they still suffer from the inflexibility mentioned by earlier reports at Afghanistan.
https://t.co/XfnAqRvMi4"

Russians still using the Soviet logistic system that lost them their Afghan War

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by NobodyHere

I have trouble feeling sorry for someone who protested the national anthem being arrested in Russia.

Legitimately one of the dumbest thing posted here, and that's saying something.

[CrimsonFox]

Originally Posted by Solecismic

It surprises me that Putin is willing to sacrifice so many of his own troops. He seems quite secure and Russian police have come down quite harshly on war protests, arresting thousands. Putin is changing laws (unanimously in the Duma - debate is not welcome), driving out the media.

You are surprised an evil murderous megolomaniac will kill his troops? He's basically Casanova Frankenstein

[CrimsonFox]

Originally Posted by Lathum

apparently Brittney Griner has been in a Russian jail for almost a month because she was caught in an airport with a vape cartridge.

so they are arresting douchebags now?

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by Lathum

apparently Brittney Griner has been in a Russian jail for almost a month because she was caught in an airport with a vape cartridge.

I'm sure the hashish oil probably had more to do with it than the vape cartridge itself.

If I'm willing to admit to the possibility that the stuff was planted, I'd hope that even the hardest left would admit to the possibility that she might just be guilty of the charge.

[Edward64]

Yeah, let's do it. $30M a pop for a (theoretical) exchange for F-16s in addition to the Stingers & Javelins. It'll help Ukraine for another few weeks or so. But unless Ukraine gains air supremacy (doubtful), don't think it'll help that much with any sieges.

The US is working with Poland on the possibility of Warsaw providing fighter jets to Ukraine along with consulting with other allies, a White House spokesperson confirmed, as Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky pushes for eastern European countries to send fighter aircraft into his country.

As part of the conversations with Poland, the US is determining what “capabilities we could provide to backfill Poland if it decided to transfer planes to Ukraine,” said the spokesperson, who would not detail what backfill options are under consideration.

The spokesperson said sending fighter jets into Ukraine is a “sovereign decision for any country to make” and noted there are a host of logistics to work through, including how the aircraft would be transferred from Poland to Ukraine.

Two lawmakers participating in a Zoom call with the Ukrainian President on Saturday said Zelensky indicated Poland had signaled it is prepared to send MiG fighter jets but “they are only waiting for you [the US] to allow it.”

[Edward64]

More context

White House weighs 3-way deal to get fighter jets to Ukraine

The U.S. remains in discussions with Poland to potentially backfill their fleet of fighter planes if Warsaw decides to transfer its used MiG-29s to Ukraine, four U.S. officials tell POLITICO.
:
As Poland weighed sending its warplanes to Ukraine last week, Warsaw asked the White House if the Biden administration could guarantee it would provide them with U.S.-made fighter jets to fill the gap. The White House said it would look into the matter.
:
Several Eastern European countries like Poland, Bulgaria and Slovakia retain dozens of Russian-made aircraft in their inventories and have been hesitant to give up those planes without guarantees from the U.S. that they could replace them.

Poland has been modernizing its aircraft fleet since 2006, when it first started flying F-16s, and in 2020 signed a $4.6 billion deal for 32 F-35s, the first of which will arrive in 2024, making those older Russian-made planes expendable.

[Edward64]

Ukraine is definitely winning the trolling war.

Link below to volunteers to join Ukraine's "international legion". Below has list of contacts by country. For Russia it has "RUSSIAN WARSHIP, GO FUCK YOURSELF".

Fight for Ukraine

[GrantDawg]

Originally Posted by JonInMiddleGA

I'm sure the hashish oil probably had more to do with it than the vape cartridge itself.

If I'm willing to admit to the possibility that the stuff was planted, I'd hope that even the hardest left would admit to the possibility that she might just be guilty of the charge.

It is quite possible she did. Either she forgot it was in the bag, or she thought she could pass it through. Either way, she is in a bad situation.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by JonInMiddleGA

I'm sure the hashish oil probably had more to do with it than the vape cartridge itself.

If I'm willing to admit to the possibility that the stuff was planted, I'd hope that even the hardest left would admit to the possibility that she might just be guilty of the charge.

I have little doubt she is guilty. The issue is she was in jail for almost a month before anyone knew.

[sterlingice]

Originally Posted by JonInMiddleGA

I'm sure the hashish oil probably had more to do with it than the vape cartridge itself.

If I'm willing to admit to the possibility that the stuff was planted, I'd hope that even the hardest left would admit to the possibility that she might just be guilty of the charge.

It's darkly hilarious to me that the headline is "because of vape cartridge" and then when you read the story it's "oh, it had hashish oil in it" - maybe the lede was buried a bit. Not saying it's right or, like you said, totally could have been planted (also could be for personal use, too). But it's a misleading headline. It would be like a story "man with bag arrested at airport" and when you read the story, it's because the bag was filled with drugs.

SI

[sterlingice]

Originally Posted by Edward64

Yeah, let's do it. $30M a pop for a (theoretical) exchange for F-16s in addition to the Stingers & Javelins. It'll help Ukraine for another few weeks or so. But unless Ukraine gains air supremacy (doubtful), don't think it'll help that much with any sieges.

No kidding. We can't fight directly but if we can get out our military checkbook to make a big difference, get it done like yesterday.

SI

[Flasch186]

Remember Russia paid afghans for killing Americans

Trump said naw, but yeah it happened you F

We’re here today in part (not whole) because of trumps fellating Putin

And now my Facebook is silent from the Trumpists but I desperately want to start reposting their posts back to them with a side eye


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[Hammer]

Originally Posted by tarcone

If the USA and Russia joined forces would the world tremble?

I would fear the lunatic with 25 long range nukes who would use them over the country with 5000 who wouldn't due to fear of the consequences of nuclear retaliation.

I think right now Putin holds the lunatic card. Therefore he calls the shots.

[Edward64]

Looks like rent-a-jet to Ukraine will happen.

Secretary of State Antony Blinken said Sunday that NATO members have the go-ahead to send fighter jets to Ukraine as the U.S. and allies continue their efforts to help Ukraine defend itself against Russia's invasion.

"That gets a green-light," Blinken said in an interview with "Face the Nation" when asked whether the Polish government, a member of NATO, could send fighter planes to Ukraine. "In fact, we're talking with our Polish friends right now about what we might be able to do to backfill their needs if in fact they choose to provide these fighter jets to the Ukrainians. What can we do? How can we help to make sure that they get something to backfill the planes that they are handing over to the Ukrainians?"

[HerRealName]

Originally Posted by Flasch186

Remember Russia paid afghans for killing Americans

Trump said naw, but yeah it happened you F

We’re here today in part (not whole) because of trumps fellating Putin

And now my Facebook is silent from the Trumpists but I desperately want to start reposting their posts back to them with a side eye


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

I just looked, mine is still overflowing with pro-Putin support. Putin's apparently fighting the deep state by invading Ukraine.

[molson]

Originally Posted by HerRealName

I just looked, mine is still overflowing with pro-Putin support.

Is this your family, friends? Is there a social pressure to follow these people or is out of morbid curiosity?

I don't get how people put up with that stuff.

[HerRealName]

Originally Posted by molson

Is this your family, friends? Is there a social pressure to follow these people or is out of morbid curiosity?

I don't get how people put up with that stuff.

I have crazy in-laws and I grew up in a small town of about 2,000. I rarely log into Facebook and when I do I go straight to a couple of groups that I follow. My actual friends and family all avoid the place for the same reason.

[molson]

Originally Posted by HerRealName

I have crazy in-laws and I grew up in a small town of about 2,000. I rarely log into Facebook and when I do I go straight to a couple of groups that I follow. My actual friends and family all avoid the place for the same reason.

It just bums me out that the crazies have taken over. It's easy enough to me to just not follow those people, but I guess there wouldn't be any reason to bother if your actual family and friends aren't there posting normal shit you want to see.

[miami_fan]

https://www.seattletimes.com/nation-...-cut-business/

This feels like this is going to be a problem in a year or so.

[CrimsonFox]

geez steam is really lame. They are basically forbidding anyone from even talking about the war. Locking everty thread that starts and forbidding ANY political conversation.

[CrimsonFox]

Originally Posted by HerRealName

I just looked, mine is still overflowing with pro-Putin support. Putin's apparently fighting the deep state by invading Ukraine.

have you called them commies yet?

[CrimsonFox]

oh yeah the developers of the video game CYBERPUNK 2077 have stopped sales of it in russia. This has caused lots of review-bombing on steam of the game.