2024 MLB Season Thread

[Ksyrup]

Sorry, Valdez. I finished watching the weather and switched to MLB.tv only to watch you give up the hit with 2 outs. My bad. I do this way too often.

[stevew]

I’m completely broken on this season. No fucks left to give. Just 4 brutal loses in 5 games.

[Atocep]

I'm not sure anything has made me feel older than Grady Sizemore being named White Sox manager.

[stevew]

I hate David Bednar so much. Like way more than I should. What a fat turd.

[Ksyrup]

I just saw how the Tigers lost last night. 3-1 lead, 2 outs in the 9th, 2 strikes on the batter, bases loaded. And this for the Mariners' walk-off. Brutal.

Mitich Haniger's eighth career walk-off with the Mariners is perhaps his most improbable.

It clears the bases and lifts the Mariners to a miraculous one-run win. He also is now the franchise leader in walk-offs. pic.twitter.com/dMgcmWeayp

— Daniel Kramer (@DKramer_) August 9, 2024

[Lathum]

The Hawk-tuah girl threw out the first pitch at the Mets game today.

[Swaggs]

Originally Posted by stevew

I hate David Bednar so much. Like way more than I should. What a fat turd.

I wonder what the odds are for Derek Shelton to finish the season. I don't even think much of this is his fault. I mean, I think he's a below average MLB manager (me and my friends joke that his primary skill is giving his players nicknames) and has been loyal to some terrible coaches, but I'm not sure who is available that could add more than a a few games to the win column. Pirates had gotten to 2 games over .500 and within 2.5 games of the playoffs, but now have lost 10 straight. Their run differential is still only -31, which makes a 10 game losing streak seem real improbable, but here we are. So, I think Shelton is likely to be sacrificed here before too long.

They have a bench coach, Don Kelly, that is a local, and my guess is he gets a shot and then they stick to their cheap ways and retain him for the next 3-4 years.

[JPhillips]

After absolutely dominating his last ten starts or so, Hunter Greene is now on the IL with elbow pain.

Fuck baseball.

[stevew]

Brutal turn for Reds fans.

[stevew]

Originally Posted by Swaggs

I wonder what the odds are for Derek Shelton to finish the season. I don't even think much of this is his fault. I mean, I think he's a below average MLB manager (me and my friends joke that his primary skill is giving his players nicknames) and has been loyal to some terrible coaches, but I'm not sure who is available that could add more than a a few games to the win column. Pirates had gotten to 2 games over .500 and within 2.5 games of the playoffs, but now have lost 10 straight. Their run differential is still only -31, which makes a 10 game losing streak seem real improbable, but here we are. So, I think Shelton is likely to be sacrificed here before too long.

They have a bench coach, Don Kelly, that is a local, and my guess is he gets a shot and then they stick to their cheap ways and retain him for the next 3-4 years.

I was kinda shocked he made it to Friday. Off day on Thursday would have been the perfect time to shank him.

Gotta love running lineups out there with Hayes/Taylor/Bae/Triolo all SLG under .300. Cutch is out for 10 days, do you call up Davis, maybe to see if his hitting is fixed…nah. It’s Alika:30 with his shit bat. Nick Yorke? Nah, let him rot in AAA.

Also I’ve seen enough of Domingo German.

[Ghost Econ]

Shohei Ohtani is 2 HR and 3 SB away from 40/40 with 40 games left. I'm comfortable saying he's the best baseball player in history.

[Lathum]

I doubt anyone is watching the Oakland-Giants game but the home plate ump is having an Angel Hernandez level game.

[Swaggs]

Originally Posted by stevew

I was kinda shocked he made it to Friday. Off day on Thursday would have been the perfect time to shank him.

Gotta love running lineups out there with Hayes/Taylor/Bae/Triolo all SLG under .300. Cutch is out for 10 days, do you call up Davis, maybe to see if his hitting is fixed…nah. It’s Alika:30 with his shit bat. Nick Yorke? Nah, let him rot in AAA.

Also I’ve seen enough of Domingo German.

I'm not that down on Alika, given that he is still relatively young (he was a 1st rounder in 2020, so didn't get to play that year). They did just call up freakig Billy McKinney. Meanwhile, they have Davis with an OPS over 1.000 in AAA this year, and the two AAA guys (Cook and Yorke) they traded for at the deadline are both around .850-.875, but we are going with 29-year old Billy McKinney who has played on 6 other MLB teams. Cook is 25 and Davis is 24, so it would be nice to see if they could help the team next year. Yorke is a little younger, but was a 1st round pick and is hitting well at AAA as a 22-year old. Pirates just love veterans, regardless of their talent level.

[stevew]

They’re also doing weird promotion/demotion shit with relievers. The McKinney thing is absolutely brutal though.

[stevew]

Hayes to the DL and he essentially confirmed that his back is f’d up

[Atocep]

I would have never had Brett Baty spending most of the year in AAA and Mark Vientos being the guy OPSing nearly .900 with 20 homers over half a season's worth of play.

[stevew]

Joey Votto retired

[stevew]

Nothing specifically triggered this post, but I do not like the ground rule double. It should empty the bases.

[Swaggs]

I don’t know how coachable either player is, but I just spent four days (including a couple in person) watching Elly de La Cruz (Reds) and Oneil Cruz (Pirates) combine insane talent with insanely boneheaded plays. Two enormous, long dreadlocked, Dominican players that both look like they love playing. I feel like they both deserve teams with legitimate player development and they could both be 7-10 WAR players.

[stevew]

Cruz is supposed to start seeing time at centerfield. Makes too much sense given how shitty our centerfield production has been all year. Like 500 OPS bad.

[Swaggs]

Originally Posted by stevew

Cruz is supposed to start seeing time at centerfield. Makes too much sense given how shitty our centerfield production has been all year. Like 500 OPS bad.

I would just stick him in RF. No way he can focus enough to play CF.

Oneil has 24 errors and a negative .3 defensive WAR and Elly has 26 errors and .2 defensive WAR. Oneil actually had decent positive defensive value before he hurt himself, but I think with the knee injury and size, there is just no point in holding out hope that he can become even a net even guy at SS.

[RainMaker]

Why not try him at 3B?

[stevew]

I agree he’d be a much better fit at either right field or first base even but for now, they have bodies at those positions. He’s probably gonna suck at centerfield but giving him 20-30 games or so in a lost season is a decent beta test.

[JPhillips]

Elly should stay at SS as he's a positive defender and he's shown a great ability to improve as a professional. Maybe that changes in a year or two, but he needs to be given the chance to refine his play at SS.

It's going to stink when he inevitably leaves, but I can't blame him if he wants to be on a team that actually tries to win.

[Swaggs]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

Why not try him at 3B?

Hayes won the Gold Glove last year and they signed him long-term. I don’t understand how all the defensive metrics work, but Hayes somehow has ridiculously high defensive value and decent overall value despite being super inconsistent offensively.

[Swaggs]

Originally Posted by stevew

I agree he’d be a much better fit at either right field or first base even but for now, they have bodies at those positions. He’s probably gonna suck at centerfield but giving him 20-30 games or so in a lost season is a decent beta test.

I hadn’t seen that it was official - I will never doubt you again!

The Pirates Prospects guy (who, side note, seems like he’s going through a mental breakdown the past few months and I feel bad for him) has written a lot of good theoretical stuff this year about how much playing premium defensive positions affects offensive production due to how much concentration goes into playing SS, C, and CF. Not a real good way to scientifically prove it, but this will make for a good case study. It didn’t seem to help Henry Davis last year, but there are a lot of other variables at play there.

[Swaggs]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

Elly should stay at SS as he's a positive defender and he's shown a great ability to improve as a professional. Maybe that changes in a year or two, but he needs to be given the chance to refine his play at SS.

It's going to stink when he inevitably leaves, but I can't blame him if he wants to be on a team that actually tries to win.

I think Elly and O’Neil are pretty similar with their skill sets, but Elly seems like his are all just at another level beyond. I think either could have probably been All Star closers. I think Elly has enough speed to stick at SS and his superior range will offset the errors enough to keep him there, but he might develop into an even better offensive player at a less stressful position

[stevew]

Originally Posted by Swaggs

I hadn’t seen that it was official - I will never doubt you again!

The Pirates Prospects guy (who, side note, seems like he’s going through a mental breakdown the past few months and I feel bad for him) has written a lot of good theoretical stuff this year about how much playing premium defensive positions affects offensive production due to how much concentration goes into playing SS, C, and CF. Not a real good way to scientifically prove it, but this will make for a good case study. It didn’t seem to help Henry Davis last year, but there are a lot of other variables at play there.

Yeah, I just saw some follow up. They said that they informed Cruz yesterday after the game that he was not playing shortstop the rest of the year. At least not as a primary position

[JonInMiddleGA]

"I think, as of right now, we're looking at him as a center fielder,” Shelton said when asked if Cruz could potentially return to shortstop.

Dang, that sounds like they've simply seen enough.

[RainMaker]

Curious to see which players have had success transferring from middle infield to center field. There are some corner outfielders, but I can't think of many center fielders. It feels like a position that while speed is helpful, getting good jumps and reads on the ball is more important. Not something you can just plug and play guys into.

[stevew]

I also heard from someone earlier this season that they had been working with Reynolds at first. It was during when rowdy was struggling. I don’t know if Reynolds would be the option for 2025 at first base but it’s definitely probably the best move for his long-term career.

[Atocep]

Manny Machado has 9 years left on his contract with the Padres.

[stevew]

Originally Posted by JonInMiddleGA

"I think, as of right now, we're looking at him as a center fielder,” Shelton said when asked if Cruz could potentially return to shortstop.

Dang, that sounds like they've simply seen enough.

His ideal position seems to be on another team.

[stevew]

One of the Brady Fiegl’s just debuted for the pirates at age 32

[CrimsonFox]

A neat record book moment. A guy played for two different teams in the same game.

MLB player makes unconventionalÂ*history after playing for 2 teams in same game | CNN

[LastWhiteSoxFanStanding]

Presented without comment from Google Gemini:

Here are 5 jokes referencing the White Sox's potential historically poor record, riffing on the username "lastwhitesoxfanstanding":

Self-deprecating: "Looks like 'lastwhitesoxfanstanding' might soon become 'onlywhitesoxfanleft'... anyone want to join my support group?"
Defiant: "They can have the worst record, but they'll never take my spirit! 'lastwhitesoxfanstanding' till the bitter end, even if it's a really bitter end."
Darkly humorous: "If the White Sox keep this up, 'lastwhitesoxfanstanding' might end up being a literal epitaph on my tombstone."
Wordplay: "'lastwhitesoxfanstanding' is more like 'lastwhitesoxfanwithstanding'... this season is truly testing my endurance."
Optimistic: "Even in the darkest times, there's always hope. 'lastwhitesoxfanstanding' is ready for the rebuild... and the eventual comeback!"

[Ksyrup]

As of yesterday, I think they had to go 12-19 in their final 31 games to avoid 120 losses. And they lost yesterday. Not only is 12-18 a huge stretch, but they've only won 4 of their previous 38 games.

I've still seen worse teams in some of my OOTP historical simulations. Not much worse, though.

[Mota]

Originally Posted by Ksyrup

As of yesterday, I think they had to go 12-19 in their final 31 games to avoid 120 losses. And they lost yesterday. Not only is 12-18 a huge stretch, but they've only won 4 of their previous 38 games.

I've still seen worse teams in some of my OOTP historical simulations. Not much worse, though.

And these OOTP teams probably did some boneheaded things like release all of their prospects to get there.

[Ksyrup]

The ol' "Hank Greenberg gets released 6 times before he turns 20" bug!

[PilotMan]

Originally Posted by Ksyrup

As of yesterday, I think they had to go 12-19 in their final 31 games to avoid 120 losses. And they lost yesterday. Not only is 12-18 a huge stretch, but they've only won 4 of their previous 38 games.

I've still seen worse teams in some of my OOTP historical simulations. Not much worse, though.

There are a couple different ways to look at it here. I'm actively cheering to see the modern record broken. I've been teased before, but dammit do I want to see it.



First, most losses. I don't particularly care about that one as 162 v 160. Odds are in your favor you'll lose if you're bad.


Second, worst winning percentage. They can technically tie the Mets with 40 wins and still be the worst by percentage. Again, this one means less to me, same as before.



Third, and this is the one a really, really want to see broken. Least wins.

They need to hit no more than 39 to get here.



What needs to happen in each case? Current record into today: 31-101, .235 winning %
30 games to play.



1) Record to hit 121 losses: 10-20 or .333 needed
-most likely to hit. But a good run of a couple games could see it happen.



2) Record to hit <.250%: 9-21 or .300 needed


3) Record to hit 39 wins: 8-22 or .267


From here, this late in the year, a string of a few losses could quickly seal their fate and I'm here for it.

[stevew]

I’m here for any losses record. I was hoping for 0-16 and it happened 2x. If the ChiSox can not get to 40 it would be amazing. Hoping 0-17 will happen soon in the NFL.

[Swaggs]

Pirates go from 99.1% probability of winning in the 8th inning to losing 14-10 in 9. Paul Skenes actually got 10 runs of support and the bullpen blows the lead. I bet he can't wait to hit free agency.

[stevew]

Holy fuck if Shelton isn’t canned

[stevew]

Dustin Baker is a good story but only 22XBH(though 38 steals) seems really unwarranted.

[Swaggs]

Was going down the rabbit hole on a couple of players and wondered what happened to derail them.

Austin Meadows was drafted by the Pirates and then traded to Rays and had a couple of really solid years while he was still young. Got MVP votes when he was 24 and 26. Then got traded to the Tigers, where he barely played in 22 and 23 and is now out of baseball. Apparently, he developed really, really bad anxiety and has not been able to recover and return.

And then Kyle Lewis won RoY as 23 year old in 2020 and is out of baseball at 28. Anyone know what happened with him?

[Atocep]

I think injuries got Kyle Lewis. He had multiple knee injuries and a concussion after being hit in the head by a pitch.

[stevew]

Luda “throwing ” out the first pitch(shot putting it?) in his Get Back music video garb is an awesome first pitch.

[Ksyrup]

The Cubs no-hitter was the most low-key no-hitter I've ever seen. I usually get multiple MLB and/or ESPN updates on my phone about no-hitters past the 6th inning, but in this case, all I got was one notification after the fact that it had happened. Bizarre. It's almost like no one was paying attention and it just happened and caught everyone off-guard. Apparently Shota was unaware he had a no-hitter when he got pulled (which was the right move, considering he was at 95 pitches through 7 - no way he's throwing 120+ pitches to finish a 12-0 game).

[cuervo72]

I mean, do we really care if it's a N-H by committee? A no-hitter is a big individual feat, and one that is rare. A guy throwing seven no-hit innings is not an everyday thing, but it's not celebrated. Nor are RP throwing no-hit innings. This just happens to be instances of these thrown together, but at that point why should I care?

[Swaggs]

I watched that whole game and it was odd. The Cubs' 3B had 3 errors. The first one, they initially awarded a hit and then changed it like an inning later - so for awhile, it wasn't a no hitter and then went back to being one. And, I would say 2 of the errors (including the reversed ones) are probably calls that the scorekeeper wouldn't give if the 3B was like Nolan Arrenado or another gold glove-type player.