2007-08 Baseball Offseason

[miami_fan]

Originally Posted by Dark Cloud

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=3133712

Why don't they wait until right before Christmas? Then they can do a movie on the players named in the Mitchell report.

[Young Drachma]

Originally Posted by miami_fan

Why don't they wait until right before Christmas? Then they can do a movie on the players named in the Mitchell report.

Because that'd be less juicy. Gotta cash in on their "investigative reporting" of Barry.

Ugh.

[mckerney]

Originally Posted by Logan

Honestly, if the Twins are really going to take Coco Crisp, Lester, and two non-elite prospects for Santana, they should be contracted.

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=3133598

If the deal for Santana in anyway contains Coco Crisp, who the Twins for some reason seem to have been in love with this offseason, Bill Smith doesn't deserve to make it 3 months on the job as Twins GM.

[dervack]

I need to send out a big thank you to Ed Wade from preventing Jim Hendry of making the mistake of signing Kazuo Matsui to a 3-year, $15 million deal. Thank you Ed. May your reign in Houston be long and helpful to the Cubs.

[Ryche]

Originally Posted by mckerney

If the deal for Santana in anyway contains Coco Crisp, who the Twins for some reason seem to have been in love with this offseason, Bill Smith doesn't deserve to make it 3 months on the job as Twins GM.

Sadly Coco is a big upgrade over anything the Twins have in center right now. I think if Coco is in there, it will just be a very minor piece. Unless they pull off a trade for a good young centerfield prospect who can play this year, I have a feeling the Twins will make a deal for Crisp, whether or not it's part of a Santana trade.

[stevew]

Originally Posted by Logan

Honestly, if the Twins are really going to take Coco Crisp, Lester, and two non-elite prospects for Santana, they should be contracted.

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=3133598

That's horrible, and i agree. What's the deal with Lester's cancer anyways, can it come back?

[BishopMVP]

Originally Posted by stevew

That's horrible, and i agree. What's the deal with Lester's cancer anyways, can it come back?

From what I've heard, any cancer can come back, but it's highly unlikely in this case.

I also think you/Logan are underestimating the Red Sox offer a little bit. Crisp would be starting in CF and has 3 years at reasonable money (4.5/5.5/8?), Lester should be a #3 and I think only has 1 year of service time, Lowrie would step in right away at 2B, if not SS (he's comparable to Pedroia, if you believe Pedroia outperformed his hitting stats a little this year) and Masterson or Bowden are both solid prospects, Masterson in particular IMO. 6'6 240 guys with powerful sinkers they can control are basically guaranteed to at least be power bullpen arms. I would much rather Bowden goes, he's smart and has good control for a 20y/o in AA, but his stuff doesn't project to being ace-quality. So that would give Minnesota 3 starters next year and a possible bullpen arm if they take Masterson as the 4th, all cost controlled for at least 3 years. Compare that to the current Yankees pieces being offered at various times - Melky (Twins like Coco better), Ian Kennedy (overrated ridiculously by Yankees fans, not nearly as good as Hughes), Tabata/Austin Jackson (both at least 2 years away) and Cano (supposedly the crown jewel of the trade, but arb-eligible next year and 2 years away from making 10mil+, which isn't feasible from Minnesota's standpoint.)

I think Minnesota is trying to get the Red Sox or Yankees to blink and if one side gives up Buchholz/Ellsbury or Hughes/Jabba (for some reason the Yankees appear to be making the injury-risky Jabba more untouchable than Hughes) they'll get Santana that day. I hope it's the Yankees giving up Hughes, and indications from the Red Sox are that they aren't including Jacoby (Buchholz is out of the question). Either way, I think you're underestimating the Red Sox package - 3, maybe 4 major-league ready, cost-controlled players is better than 1 year of Santana and 2 draft picks.

[Logan]

I still think that offer is a load of bullshit. Crisp is a slightly better than average player. Who gives a shit if he can step right in and be mediocre? What upside is he giving the Twins at 28 years old?

[stevew]

I think obviously the Yankees will need to part with Hughes and Cano to get any type of deal done. Kennedy could be solid, but I'd much rather have Hughes. Obviously Cashman/et al don't want to tip their hand quickly, but they have gotta get this thing done. This isn't Buhner for Ken Phelps or anything, Santana added to the top of that rotation would be huge. Crisp/Melky is pretty much a push.

[BishopMVP]

Originally Posted by Logan

I still think that offer is a load of bullshit. Crisp is a slightly better than average player. Who gives a shit if he can step right in and be mediocre? What upside is he giving the Twins at 28 years old?

Well, if your current CF options are well below-average like the Twins, there's your upside. And once you factor in Crisp's defense, he's above average. I didn't see much to indicate he would, but if he hits like he did in Cleveland (~.800 OPS), he's amazing value, especially considering Torii Hunter is getting $18 million and Juan Pierre got $10 million a year.

Originally Posted by stevew

I think obviously the Yankees will need to part with Hughes and Cano to get any type of deal done. Kennedy could be solid, but I'd much rather have Hughes. Obviously Cashman/et al don't want to tip their hand quickly, but they have gotta get this thing done. This isn't Buhner for Ken Phelps or anything, Santana added to the top of that rotation would be huge. Crisp/Melky is pretty much a push.

Minnesota doesn't view it as a push, they love Crisp, for what that's worth. And I don't think Cano is as attractive to the Twins as people assume. Given that Cano is 2 years away from making big money and Lowrie would have 5-6, it's debateable which would be more beneficial to the Twins.

[Logan]

Originally Posted by BishopMVP

Well, if your current CF options are well below-average like the Twins, there's your upside.

So because you have a shitty CF situation, you're going to trade the best pitcher in baseball for a package centered around an average CF? There is no way a Carlos Gomez or a Melky is not a batter option that Coco Crisp, not to mention whatever studs the Dodgers or Angels could come up with.

You can pump up your own players all you want, but if the Twins accept a package centered around an average CF, a decent #3 type pitcher, and 2 complete unknowns, they should really be contracted, because what the hell is the point. Again, I call bullshit on the potential of this really being a serious possibility.

[rkmsuf]

maybe this is floated to get the yankees to show them the money with a big offer

[Logan]

Then they should float an offer that has some real value.

[rkmsuf]

Originally Posted by Logan

Then they should float an offer that has some real value.

It's the ancient art of seduction.

[MikeVic]

Originally Posted by rkmsuf

It's the ancient art of seduction.

Put some clothes on man.

[BishopMVP]

Originally Posted by Logan

So because you have a shitty CF situation, you're going to trade the best pitcher in baseball for a package centered around an average CF? There is no way a Carlos Gomez or a Melky is not a batter option that Coco Crisp, not to mention whatever studs the Dodgers or Angels could come up with.

You can pump up your own players all you want, but if the Twins accept a package centered around an average CF, a decent #3 type pitcher, and 2 complete unknowns, they should really be contracted, because what the hell is the point. Again, I call bullshit on the potential of this really being a serious possibility.

Crisp isn't the centerpiece of the deal. I'd say Lester is, as a lefty with ace potential. And just because you don't know Lowrie or Masterson/Bowden doesn't mean they are complete unknowns. If we didn't have Lugo's contract, Lowrie would be starting at SS opening day. Masterson is going to be at worst a solid bullpen arm, and if he can keep developing his 3rd pitch he will be up in the Derek Lowe/Brandon Webb mold of pitcher with ridiculous GB rate and good K rate (I don't think he will be as good as Webb obviously, but that's his ceiling.)

You also seem hung up on thinking talent is what's driving the deal. Quiksand pointed it our best regarding the NFL (where it works better with the hard salary cap) - you're not simply measuring how talented a player is, you're measuring how talented that player is versus the percentage of available payroll he'll take up, which is why barring injury to either pitcher Buchholz earning less than 1mil a year is probably going to be at least equal value as Santana earning $22-$25 million.

[BishopMVP]

I'll add that I'm not as enamored of Lester as baseball people seem to be. He's a lefty who was throwing mid-90's before the cancer, and got back there by the WS with a great curveball, but he's shown a tendency to nibble, leading to walks and high pitch counts/short outings.

[miami_fan]

Lastings Millidge has been traded to Washington for Brian Schneider and Ryan Church.


EDIT: Peter Gammons is reporting it.

[BishopMVP]

As for Coco vs. Carlos Gomez or Melky, Coco had an 8.3 WARP3 last year due almost entirely to defense, and had OPS+'s of 110 and 117 his last 2 years in Clevelan (vs. 77 and 83 in Boston). Melky is a worse fielder who has put up OPS+'s of 95 and 89. Even if we assume Coco's bat stays as bad as it was in Boston last year, that's an OPS+ 6 points lower with much better speed and gold-glove caliber defense vs. a slightly above average CF'er in Melky. Carlos Gomez I don't know as well, but he has never put up an .800 in any minor league level and didn't show too much last year at the major league level. I don't see how you can say either is clearly a better option than Coco, and in fact given Coco's proven track record in the AL I'd say he's a much more certain option than Gomez.

The Dodgers and Angels are irrelevant to this debate because they aren't interested in paying Santana, or in trading for him over Cabrera.

[ISiddiqui]

Originally Posted by miami_fan

Lastings Millidge has been traded to Washington for Brian Schneider and Ryan Church.


EDIT: Peter Gammons is reporting it.

God, I hope not. Schneider is HORRIBLE!

[rkmsuf]

Coco had an 8.3 WARP3

nomar in his prime had a 9.7 LUDICROUS7

[Logan]

Only makes sense if Church is being turned around for a pitcher.

[Logan]

Also, it's gonna be great watching him smack us around 19 times a year.

[miami_fan]

From Rotoworld

SNY is reporting that the Mets have acquired Brian Schneider and Ryan Church from the Nationals for Lastings Milledge.

We wrote four days ago that the Mets shouldn't part with Milledge for Schneider. Church, though, helps even it up. The one concern for the Nats is that a lot of teams are down on Milledge as a center fielder. If they decide he can't handle the position, they'd probably use him in left and bench Wily Mo Pena. Austin Kearns in center, with Milledge in right, should be an option, but manager Manny Acta wasn't willing to go there last season. Schneider to the Mets means that Johnny Estrada will be non-tendered after all. The Nats will probably bring in Paul Lo Duca or Michael Barrett until Jesus Flores is ready. Nov. 30 - 1:04 pm et

[Logan]

Schneider can't fuckin hit. What was the point of going away from Lo Duca? Why not roll the dice on Estrada in a platoon instead of letting him loose?

[ISiddiqui]

Minaya is a freaking idiot.

[molson]

Originally Posted by BishopMVP

I'll add that I'm not as enamored of Lester as baseball people seem to be. He's a lefty who was throwing mid-90's before the cancer, and got back there by the WS with a great curveball, but he's shown a tendency to nibble, leading to walks and high pitch counts/short outings.

I think it's absolutely the perfect time for the Sox to trade him, and I'd be pretty dissapointed if they don't.

[MrBug708]

Cards sign Cesar Izturis

[Atocep]

Omar just made his Kazmir deal.

[General Mike]

Fire Omar Minaya

[JS19]

What in the hloy hell happened? i get home and see Minaya pretty much just gave Milledge away....I guess his stock dropped more than i thought. I knew the Mets would trade him, but, call me crazy, I thought it would be in a package deal for a SP. Schneider sucks, and the way I see it, he is the 3rd catcher as of now anyways, and it looks like Church put up some good numbers, but I would have much rather seen what Milledge could do in a full season.

[ISiddiqui]

Is there any Met fan out there who likes this trade?

edit: The only thing I can think of is that he became such a burden in the clubhouse that Minaya just wanted him gone, and there were a few players who put pressure on him to do so.

[miami_fan]

Originally Posted by ISiddiqui

Is there any Met fan out there who likes this trade?

edit: The only thing I can think of is that he became such a burden in the clubhouse that Minaya just wanted him gone, and there were a few players who put pressure on him to do so.

But when did he become such a burden? Weren't teams offering better talent for him at the deadline last year?

[ISiddiqui]

Originally Posted by miami_fan

But when did he become such a burden? Weren't teams offering better talent for him at the deadline last year?

From the ESPN.com article:

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=3135229

Still just 22, he was the Mets' top prospect when he made his major league debut in May 2006. Right away, he showed why he was so highly rated on the field -- but also drew the ire of his team and teammates.

One of the most publicized episodes came in the town that will be his new home. In September 2006, a sign was posted in Milledge's locker in the visiting clubhouse at RFK Stadium that read: "Know your place, Rook. Your teammates."

Milledge earlier had been reprimanded for not running hard on the bases and had arrived late to the clubhouse for a game. He also rankled Mets management by making a rap CD that used offensive language.

That sign was to me! I never heard about that!

[Atocep]

Originally Posted by ISiddiqui

Is there any Met fan out there who likes this trade?

edit: The only thing I can think of is that he became such a burden in the clubhouse that Minaya just wanted him gone, and there were a few players who put pressure on him to do so.

For whatever reason Minaya got it in his head that the Mets needed a defensive catcher so now we're stuck with a 31 year old version of Brad Ausmus and a pretty decent 29 year old corner outfielder who hit pretty well away from RFK. Problem is he moves from one pitcher's park to another.

I know Minaya is thinking that he got 2 starters for 1 guy that wasn't well liked on the team, but if he was intent on trading Milledge he could gotten a lot more considering how hard it is to aquire young talent now. On top of that, Minaya basically said "I don't care what kind of production we get from our catcher, I just want a guy with a good defensive reputation."

I do think Church is a much better player than many realize, he's a solid hitter and an excellent left fielder. However, Schneider is living off of defensive rep right now. He was good in his prime, but the past couple years have been pretty average and his OPS of ~.650 is laugable. I'd much rather have Estrada and Castro platooning than Scheinder playing every day and Castro giving him rest.

Minaya has to learn that he can't have him and the manager continually point out a guy's faults, dangle him to every team in baseball (making it clear you intend to deal him), and then expect to get solid value for him. My Kazmir comparison was obviously an exaggeration, but the point is Minaya has to learn how valuable his prospects are if he's going to trade them and get as close to that value as possible.

[Atocep]

Originally Posted by miami_fan

But when did he become such a burden? Weren't teams offering better talent for him at the deadline last year?

The best offer the Mets got was probably Blanton for Milledge and a Grade-B prospect. Its a better deal than Church simply because Blanton would be a cost-controlled player for the next 3 seasons.

He was part of the rumored Manny trade, but that included several players and wasn't all that close to happening.

The Mets really killed his value by being so public with his attitude problems (though he was signficantly more mature when he was called up last year from what I had read) and by making him available in every trade offer the past 2 seasons.

[ISiddiqui]

FWIW, I checked the HardBall Times to see what the Win Shares were on these guys:

Schneider:

http://www.hardballtimes.com/thtstat...&Submit=Submit

It seems he has the 7th highest win shares of any catcher in the NL due to his defensive play. That's better than I expected, but it's not all that great.

As for Church (who I like):

http://www.hardballtimes.com/thtstat...&Submit=Submit

A pretty decent corner outfielder there.

Though, like Atocep, I have to think the Minaya could have gotten a LOT more. It isn't a total Kazmir like deal, but it isn't that good either, considering how ole Milledge had been talked up.

[ISiddiqui]

Originally Posted by Atocep

The best offer the Mets got was probably Blanton for Milledge and a Grade-B prospect. Its a better deal than Church simply because Blanton would be a cost-controlled player for the next 3 seasons.

*Sigh* That would have been MUCH better, especially with the problems in the starting rotation. Would have loved to have Blanton.

[miami_fan]

Originally Posted by ISiddiqui

*Sigh* That would have been MUCH better, especially with the problems in the starting rotation. Would have loved to have Blanton.

That was my point. From everything I am reading, the problems with him are not new. An interesting blip in the Baseball America analysis of the trade.

http://www.baseballamerica.com/today...ws/265292.html

After watching the Mets play without intensity last September as they choked away the NL East title, general manager Omar Minaya felt compelled to acquire players who play with more passion

Passion? What is that a code word for?

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by BishopMVP

The Dodgers and Angels are irrelevant to this debate because they aren't interested in paying Santana, or in trading for him over Cabrera.

Not sure where you get this idea from, because you're dead wrong, both about paying him and about getting Cabrera over him, at least from the Angels.

[Atocep]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

Not sure where you get this idea from, because you're dead wrong, both about paying him and about getting Cabrera over him, at least from the Angels.

I heard both the Giants and Angels thought they had deals done for Cabrera but the Marlins came back with increased demands both times and killed the deals. Have you heard anything on that from the Angels end?

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by Atocep

I heard both the Giants and Angels thought they had deals done for Cabrera but the Marlins came back with increased demands both times and killed the deals. Have you heard anything on that from the Angels end?

Heh

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

Interesting...Moreno has basically come out and accused the Marlins' front office of manipulating the Cabrera situation, seemingly close to agreeing to deals only to switch out players or demand new additions at the last moment. He said he thought the Angels had a deal with Florida on two separate occasions, only to have it fall apart at the last second. He also said the rumored Dodgers deal for Cabrera had been in place as well, and the Marlins pulled the same stunt with them.

Florida chose not to comment (and neither did Reagins; he knows Moreno gets free reign as an owner, but he doesn't get that).

The Angels fan in me says, Yeah, Arte, lay it on 'em! But the pragmatic baseball fan in me can't really dispute the Marlins have every right to demand whatever they want for a player they still control for another two years. Of course, if it's true they are being a bit sneaky and underhanded, I think that's shitty, and the Angels should just tell them to F off. But then, with the interest Cabrera is getting from various teams, I don't see the Marlins being hurt too much if the Angels pull out.

Tbh, as much as I like Cabrera, his weight issues, questions about attitude, and the fact he's two years from free agency lessens his value to me, such that I would almost rather keep tremendous talents like Kendrick and Wood here in SoCal. There are other options and we have the pieces to deal.

Just, please, don't overpay for freakin' Tejada.

I hadn't heard about it from the Giants. But that doesn't surprise me. So the Marlins are screwing around with at least three teams.

[DaddyTorgo]

I've come around on this to not wanting Santana. I'd much rather see the Sox bank the money and go with a rotation of Beckett/Dice-K/Schilling/Wake/Bucholz or Lester and save the $$ that they would need to sign Santana for whatever big bat they're going to have to sign in FA to replace Manny when his contract is up. By the time Schilling retires, either Bucholz or Lester slip into his spot, and the other one can take over for Wake when he's done. Then you have 40% (at least) of your starting rotation cost-controlled, you keep Lowrie to potentially slot in for Lugo if Lugo can improve to the point where he's tradeable, and you still have Coco to use as tradebait.

Bottom line is: shortly this team will lose - Schilling, Wake, Lowell (at least skills-wise, maybe 2 years away?), Manny (contract). And you're going to need bats. Power-bats too. And power bats cost mucho-$$ and are not in big supply. Especially proven power-bats.

[BishopMVP]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

Not sure where you get this idea from, because you're dead wrong, both about paying him and about getting Cabrera over him, at least from the Angels.

I could be wrong on the Angels, I've just heard that they thought they had a done deal for Cabrera before the Marlins changed terms, and haven't heard anything about talks between them and the Twins. Could just be East Coast/Boston bias focusing on the rivalry, but every radio interview and internet rumor I've heard is focusing on the Red Sox and Yankees being the only two teams in the mix. The Angels probably would match up pretty much, with an expendable CF'er, good young middle IF'er (Kendrick, not Wood) and young pitching. If they were interested in trading Santana, they could easily propose a package centering around Adenhart/Kendrick/Willits or something similar, which is only a little more than they've offered the Marlins for Cabrera (Marlins either demanding Adenhart instead of Saunders/Ervin Santana or two of the three after they agreed to a package last I heard.)

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by BishopMVP

I could be wrong on the Angels, I've just heard that they thought they had a done deal for Cabrera before the Marlins changed terms, and haven't heard anything about talks between them and the Twins. Could just be East Coast/Boston bias focusing on the rivalry, but every radio interview and internet rumor I've heard is focusing on the Red Sox and Yankees being the only two teams in the mix. The Angels probably would match up pretty much, with an expendable CF'er, good young middle IF'er (Kendrick, not Wood) and young pitching. If they were interested in trading Santana, they could easily propose a package centering around Adenhart/Kendrick/Willits or something similar, which is only a little more than they've offered the Marlins for Cabrera (Marlins either demanding Adenhart instead of Saunders/Ervin Santana or two of the three after they agreed to a package last I heard.)

Actually, conventional wisdom was exactly what you thought, especially after the Garland deal, that the Angels have so much pitching already, they wouldn't want more. But the rumor has it that the Twins heard what the Marlins were asking for from the Angels for Cabrera (and presumeably what the Angels seemed prepared to offer), and called up Reagins to let them know they would move Santana for a package like that. Thus, mutual interest was born.

[Logan]

Originally Posted by ISiddiqui

That sign was to me! I never heard about that!

It was Cliff Floyd, without a doubt. He was a complete prick to Milledge in the media.

I think the problem most of us are having with this deal is we are comparing what we got yesterday to what we could have gotten for him a year or two ago. You hear from enough people that Milledge's value really, really dropped and you have to start believing it.

I just think he's gonna turn into a very good player if he gets the opportunity to play and work out the kinks in his game. Oh well, we move along with Gomez and Fernando Martinez.

[sterlingice]

Originally Posted by miami_fan

Lastings Millidge has been traded to Washington for Brian Schneider and Ryan Church.

Oof.

SI

[BishopMVP]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

Actually, conventional wisdom was exactly what you thought, especially after the Garland deal, that the Angels have so much pitching already, they wouldn't want more. But the rumor has it that the Twins heard what the Marlins were asking for from the Angels for Cabrera (and presumeably what the Angels seemed prepared to offer), and called up Reagins to let them know they would move Santana for a package like that. Thus, mutual interest was born.

Alright, I just figured the teams matched up well enough that if the Angels weren't being mentioned, they weren't interested in Santana.

Reportedly the Yankees have added Hughes to their offer. And that Milledge deal was awful.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by BishopMVP

Alright, I just figured the teams matched up well enough that if the Angels weren't being mentioned, they weren't interested in Santana.

Reportedly the Yankees have added Hughes to their offer. And that Milledge deal was awful.

Yup, that's a big piece for the Twins apparently, and especially since they traded away Garza. Do you think the Sox will step up? I have been "hoping" they would end up dangling both Buchholz and Ellsbury for Santana, as I think that will really hurt them down the road (not that they won't be able to afford replacements, of course). Of course, really, I was just choking on the stupidity of it all if the Twins deal Santana for a bunch of mediocrity (which is what the Sox have offered so far, and what the Twins were actually considering).

Agreed, that Milledge deal doesn't look like a winner to me.

[BishopMVP]

There's no way the Sox would trade both Buchholz and Ellsbury. I'm pretty sure Buchholz alone is untouchable. The most we would do is replace Crisp with Ellsbury or/and include another prospect. I really hope they don't and stand pat with their offer (which I think y'all are underestimating a bit. Lester and Lowrie both have the potential to make an all-star game or two. Lowrie really isn't much different than Pedroia, and if Pedroia was included I don't think people would be complaining as vociferously.) I think, or at least am projecting on the Sox FO, that we were trying all along to force the Yankees to include Hughes, but now that that has happened, it looks like the Twins might be trying to get even more in Hughes, Cabrera and Kennedy, which would be fantastic. Just isn't worth trying to top that offer once you include the contract he'll require. Stay interested until the Yankees/maybe Angels give up too much, then move on to Haren.