The Biden Presidency - 2020

[Brian Swartz]

I think polls like that are pretty much pointless. What is the difference between major and minor role. We can't have 'no role', that's literally not possible.

If you ask questions like whether the US or EU should take the lead diplomatically, what the US should do if the EU doesn't act, what kinds of sanctions should be enacted if any, what level of force should we be willing to consider if any ... then you have something specific.

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by Brian Swartz

I think polls like that are pretty much pointless. What is the difference between major and minor role. We can't have 'no role', that's literally not possible.

If you ask questions like whether the US or EU should take the lead diplomatically, what the US should do if the EU doesn't act, what kinds of sanctions should be enacted if any, what level of force should we be willing to consider if any ... then you have something specific.

I don't think you need to have something specific in this situation. "General sentiment" is good enough.

And although Dems and GOP differed some, the majority of each party had pretty much the same general sentiment.

[sterlingice]

It's no longer a cold war. Russia coming in hot to Ukraine as of maybe a half hour ago

SI

[sterlingice]

Have no idea of the validity of these, but a lot of folks on Reddit and Twitter keep pointing to these two accounts to get on the ground reports. Could be bots, could be troll farms - I have no idea, but do have some decent videos.

Ukraine War Report (@UkrReport) | Twitter
OSINT UKRAINE (@OSINT_Ukraine) | Twitter

SI

[PilotMan]

It's a wait and respond. Strike and counter strike, where the counter might not come quickly. There won't be an Archduke Ferdinand moment.

[PilotMan]

This is a very solid opinion piece about the future and what happens after this operation in the Ukraine. It touches on Russia, China, and global influences. It feels pretty well thought out.

https://wapo.st/3paV11X

[Brian Swartz]

Originally Posted by Edward64

I don't think you need to have something specific in this situation. "General sentiment" is good enough.

I'm not trying to be difficult here, but I seriously have very little idea what major role vs. minor role vs. no role even means. In terms of making diplomatic noise, raising issues at the UN, I can see minor role would probably mean 'someone else does that' but otherwhise it can be all over the map.

If Biden decided tomorrow to implement a 'minor role' policy, what even is that?

[RainMaker]

I don't know how this is going to play out or what happens after, but Kagan has been wrong about every single major foreign policy issue of the past 30 years. If he is saying something will happen, you can probably bank on the opposite happening.

He is a terrific writer though and his writings on domestic stuff is not too bad.

[RainMaker]

It is wild to see CNN go from garbage cable news to an actual quality news outlet when something like this happens. Their international coverage is terrific. Giving time to actual journalists on the ground and not some hack from the Brookings Institute.

[kingfc22]

It’s beyond comprehension as to how we’ve arrived to a point where a large portion of the US govt is taking the stance of “our guy is best buds with the other guy who started an unjustified war and we’re going to shout it loud and proud. Oh by the way, why is your guy trying to deescalate the situation? What a loser”.

[JonInMiddleGA]

I'm always good for a cheery thought right? So I'll share my latest one

Ukraine this, Ukraine that, most popular word going right now.

But if on January 3rd, 2022 (one year after the current U.S. Congress was sworn in) you'd asked the 535 members to find Ukraine on a map in under 30 seconds, I absolutely do not believe 50% could have done so. And I'd guarantee that the party line results wouldn't be nearly as dramatically different as some of you would like to think.

And forget finding Moldova on that same map.
At least 1/3rd think that's a brand of watch.

[JonInMiddleGA]

And I'm not digging back through this thread to see how much this has been addressed, I'll just mention the question my child msgd me a little while ago.

"If you're China, do you take advantage of this situation? And how much?"

[Solecismic]

Originally Posted by JonInMiddleGA

And I'm not digging back through this thread to see how much this has been addressed, I'll just mention the question my child msgd me a little while ago.

"If you're China, do you take advantage of this situation? And how much?"

If Putin didn't have express permission from Xi, I'd be astonished. Russia moved troops into attack position just as the Olympics were ending. Putin would even give up Crimea tomorrow if Xi blinked.

Russia will be mostly cut off from the Western world financially today. Without China's support, that would be devastating. With China's support, they can weather that as well as Europe can weather the recession that's about to start (and likely reaches the US soon enough).

Reading the WaPo analysis... yeah, Putin is on that track - he said as much. The question is what happens when the rest of the world realizes its dependence on China has a cost. We've been happy to close our eyes for a long time. They just got opened, I hope.

Meanwhile, Trump... not helpful, dude... this has been in the works a lot longer than you think and has very little to do with you. In fact, you might be dismayed in just how little you matter in the world. Be an American and support your country, please. I get it, you don't like Biden. He's still our president and this is a tough one.

So, how long until the Baltic states are threatened? Finland/Sweden - their gamble of neutrality above all else? I think that has more to do with the world's ability to start thinking about an alternative to letting China own everyone than anything else. And how do we react when China takes Taiwan?

I don't think anyone can parse all this right now. I really thought Putin would stay in the east of Ukraine and the troop buildup was there only to keep Kyiv from defending the east. This is moving faster than I thought possible.

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by Solecismic

Meanwhile, Trump... not helpful, dude... this has been in the works a lot longer than you think and has very little to do with you. In fact, you might be dismayed in just how little you matter in the world. Be an American and support your country, please. I get it, you don't like Biden. He's still our president and this is a tough one.

Isn't even on my radar tbh. I don't know if I've read anything other than international reports on the conflict tonight and they've haven't mentioned him at all.

(I know that wasn't strictly intended for me, merely my related observation to your observation)

[RainMaker]

Russian stock market down 44%. Won't happen, but if you booted them from SWIFT right now, that economy may just completely collapse.

[sterlingice]

Originally Posted by JonInMiddleGA

And I'm not digging back through this thread to see how much this has been addressed, I'll just mention the question my child msgd me a little while ago.

"If you're China, do you take advantage of this situation? And how much?"

LOL at how that first part is framed as a "yes/no" question when we all know that "no" wasn't even an option.

China calls for talks on Ukraine, OKs Russian wheat imports
"Yeah, yeah, we want peace - though we're definitely not condemning this. Oh, here's a lifeline to prop up your economy and get food on the cheap for us"

Originally Posted by Solecismic

So, how long until the Baltic states are threatened? Finland/Sweden - their gamble of neutrality above all else? I think that has more to do with the world's ability to start thinking about an alternative to letting China own everyone than anything else. And how do we react when China takes Taiwan?

I don't think anyone can parse all this right now. I really thought Putin would stay in the east of Ukraine and the troop buildup was there only to keep Kyiv from defending the east. This is moving faster than I thought possible.

Not a foreign policy expert by any stretch and this was my read, too. I thought this was just going to be Putin taking those couple of regions and calling it a day like he did with Crimea or South Ossetia. China's ever content to play the long game but I'm sure they're good with normalizing this so they can see exactly how the west would react to their inevitable takeover of Taiwan. Selfishly, I really wanted to visit Taiwan before that happened and I'm wondering if I'll get that chance. Like you said, this is moving much faster than I expected.

SI

[albionmoonlight]

This is one of those days where if I post about politics, I probably end up saying some things I regret.

I'll just leave it at I'm against the authoritarian dictator launching an unprovoked attack on a Western democracy, and I think that other folks should also be against it.

[sterlingice]

With regards to oil prices, I think this is exactly what Putin wants. So much of Russia's income is tied to oil and lower oil prices have been hurting them for a while now. For a number of years now, the US and Saudi have tried to hit them with keeping oil prices low and it's harmed the Russian economy. Saudi only needs oil prices to be like $20/barrel to be profitable while Russia needs it to be something like $80-$100/barrel to do a lot of their exploration (it's just harder to get to). So in a lot of ways, this plays into their hands.

SI

[flere-imsaho]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

Russian stock market down 44%. Won't happen, but if you booted them from SWIFT right now, that economy may just completely collapse.

This is what kills me. The West has so many economic levers to use on Russia. Heck, just freezing the assets of all known Russian oligarchs would probably do it. Nationalize Chelsea Football Club, anyone?

[cuervo72]

I had wondered if Russians still owned any foreign teams. Yanking them was the very first thing that came to mind, honestly.

[JPhillips]

I think specifically targeting the assets of the Russian oligarchs is more likely to hurt Putin than general sanctions that will be hard to enforce. Seize teams, yachts, homes, bank accounts, etc. Deny travel and kick kids out of private schools. Make the rich in Russia choose their lifestyle or Putin.

[PilotMan]

Originally Posted by cuervo72

I had wondered if Russians still owned any foreign teams. Yanking them was the very first thing that came to mind, honestly.

I'm still quite certain that Russian oligarchs and middle eastern sheiks are responsible for the cash real estate deals in NYC that have allowed these huge, empty high rise residential buildings. They are purely a way to launder cash, and skyrocket property values. Hence....trumps love of all things Russia. I'm certain that's coming into play with his businesses.

[AlexB]

Originally Posted by flere-imsaho

This is what kills me. The West has so many economic levers to use on Russia. Heck, just freezing the assets of all known Russian oligarchs would probably do it. Nationalize Chelsea Football Club, anyone?

Western sanctions might be an inconvenience to Russia, but China will prop Russia up.

[Edward64]

The question is whether Russia can pretty much achieve their objectives quickly so Putin can show a win. Essentially keep the 2 Russian friendly regions and beat down Ukraine's military for the forseeable future. I don't see Russia wanting to occupy all of Ukraine (or at least not long term).

Haven't seen any recent polls but suspect majority of Russian's support this invasion (e.g. patriotism). They will turn against the war if it lasts too long and think Putin knows this. If there is any oligarch dissent, it won't be powerful enough right now. They owe their current and future fortunes by being in Putin's good graces.

So in the short term, Ukraine will have to put up a good showing. If they are able to prolong it and inflict heavy casualties, then all bets are off. But odds are in Putin's favor right now.

Strictly in military terms - I will be interested in reading how well Russian troops fight & effectiveness of their weaponry.

[PilotMan]

They want to dissolve and annex it, not occupy it. Russian popularity polls are meaningless in determining the future direction of the State.

[Brian Swartz]

I basically think to really make a difference, we'd have to be willing to commit at least our planes to provide air support, which would put us in a war with Russia which isn't going to happen. Sanctions of whatever kind are going to be too slow to really matter on their own. As ever I hope to be proven wrong, but I don't think Ukraine is Afghanistan.

[sterlingice]

I think if Putin can keep "his" two regions and wipe out the current Ukranian government and replace them with his puppet government -that's all he needs. Why take over an unconquerable country when you just need to neuter them, strip their assets, and make them friendly to you? How the world reacts to him wiping out the current government will tell him and China all they need to know.

SI

[miami_fan]

Originally Posted by flere-imsaho

Nationalize Chelsea Football Club, anyone?

I don't know what percentage of Chelsea supporters are part of the "keep politics out of sports" crowd, but Boris Johnson would prefer not taking the risk of losing that percentage over Ukraine.

In fact he actually "misspoke" when asked about Roman Abramovich earlier this week

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-60485759

[JPhillips]

Originally Posted by sterlingice

I think if Putin can keep "his" two regions and wipe out the current Ukranian government and replace them with his puppet government -that's all he needs. Why take over an unconquerable country when you just need to neuter them, strip their assets, and make them friendly to you? How the world reacts to him wiping out the current government will tell him and China all they need to know.

SI

I think Putin would be happy with a situation similar to Belarus.

[bhlloy]

Yeah, Putin’s end goal is to put a puppet in charge of Ukraine. I have no doubt he’ll absorb Belarus and Ukraine again into something like the USSR, but that’s a few steps down the line. Probably the disputed regions will be absorbed into Russia immediately a la Crimea.

This is a playbook he’ll try on the Baltics in a few years when things calm down again. Plus Georgia obviously with the existing situation in South Ossetia.

[sterlingice]

Originally Posted by bhlloy

Yeah, Putin’s end goal is to put a puppet in charge of Ukraine. I have no doubt he’ll absorb Belarus and Ukraine again into something like the USSR, but that’s a few steps down the line. Probably the disputed regions will be absorbed into Russia immediately a la Crimea.

This is a playbook he’ll try on the Baltics in a few years when things calm down again. Plus Georgia obviously with the existing situation in South Ossetia.

I'm not sure about the Baltic states as they're in NATO but I would be very nervous right now.

SI

[flere-imsaho]

Originally Posted by AlexB

Western sanctions might be an inconvenience to Russia, but China will prop Russia up.

Sanctions yes, targeting oligarchs, no.

Russian oligarchs want their money in the West, where it can't be nationalized by China or stolen by Putin if they piss him off. Additionally, they want their penthouse apartment in NYC, villa on the French Riviera, country estate in Berkshire, Yacht 1 moored in Miami, Yacht 2 moored in Nice, kids attending Philips Exeter or Eton, etc....

The West has the means to lock all of that down pretty quickly. This is exactly the mechanism behind the Magnitsky Act, and we know the Magnitsky Act works because it's the only thing that appears to discomfit Putin.

The lever is so obvious, so clear, so workable, that it's so, so disappointing that apparently most western governments appear to lack the will to use it (or, like Trump & Boris, are apparently too compromised to use it).

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by AlexB

Western sanctions might be an inconvenience to Russia, but China will prop Russia up.

Freezing assets of oligarchs would be swift and something Russia cares about. Good chance it would help bring an end to the war or at least cause Russia to pullback.

This won't happen because we have our own oligarchs who have ties to them. Lots of banks and large real estate entities propped up by their money. But it is a path to end the war quickly.

[RainMaker]

Germany not much help.

Incredible. Germany, Italy, Hungary and Cyprus are blocking a decision to disconnect Russia from the SWIFT network.
I expected Italy, Hungary and Cyprus. But GERMANY? Shameful. pic.twitter.com/xYdcrUj5cP

— Christo Grozev (@christogrozev) February 24, 2022

[RainMaker]

lol

NEW: US sanctions won't target Rosneft or the energy sector, really. Main focus = financial sector.

"Cutting off Russian oil & gas will drive prices up to Putin’s benefit," SAO said. "Our sanctions are designed to harm Russia’s economy, not ours” w/ @woodruffbets & @bjlefebvre

— Alex Ward (@alexbward) February 24, 2022

Also forgot how shitty UK libel laws are.

Russian oligarchs are already emailing UK journos demanding they withdraw references to criminality/Putin links. Boris Johnson should change UK's insane libel law.

— Tom Rogan (@TomRtweets) February 24, 2022

[tarcone]

Very happy Im not 18.

Ever read the book 1984?

[tarcone]

I saw gas jumped to $3.44 here. And then I figured it out, Russia invades Ukraine? Profit opportunity.

[AlexB]

Originally Posted by flere-imsaho

Sanctions yes, targeting oligarchs, no.

Russian oligarchs want their money in the West, where it can't be nationalized by China or stolen by Putin if they piss him off. Additionally, they want their penthouse apartment in NYC, villa on the French Riviera, country estate in Berkshire, Yacht 1 moored in Miami, Yacht 2 moored in Nice, kids attending Philips Exeter or Eton, etc....

The West has the means to lock all of that down pretty quickly. This is exactly the mechanism behind the Magnitsky Act, and we know the Magnitsky Act works because it's the only thing that appears to discomfit Putin.

The lever is so obvious, so clear, so workable, that it's so, so disappointing that apparently most western governments appear to lack the will to use it (or, like Trump & Boris, are apparently too compromised to use it).

Wait, what now? Get off my land!

[sterlingice]

This really is a reminder of just how much of a plaything we are to the rich. We have tools that we know could really hurt the people responsible and would make sense, considering the egregiousness of the offense. Instead, we're going through a bunch of slow play measures that will take place over months and years that will likely enrich our richest and harm their richest, but only in so much that they lose points on the big financial scoreboard. And, of course, it's the poor in the Ukraine who will suffer and, frankly, the poor here.

SI

[flere-imsaho]

Originally Posted by AlexB

Wait, what now? Get off my land!

Who do you think is buying these properties: Knight Frank

[AlexB]

Originally Posted by flere-imsaho

Who do you think is buying these properties: Knight Frank

It was more a reference to me living in Berkshire.

TBF though, quite a lot of people in the south of England genuinely don’t know where Newbury is

[molson]

Vitali Klitschko is the mayor of Kyiv. His brother is in the reserve army, and they both say they're going to fight.

[BYU 14]

Originally Posted by molson

Vitali Klitschko is the mayor of Kyiv. His brother is in the reserve army, and they both say they're going to fight.

It will be interesting to see how this rallies the Ukranian population, though I hope it does not become a Pat Tillman story.

And with protests also active in Russia, Putin has very little good will right now, which almost makes him more dangerous as it seems the worst thing in his mind is to be humiliated on the world stage.

[BYU 14]

dola - If true this won't make him happy either

Ukrainian ambassador says Russian platoon surrendered to Ukrainian forces

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by flere-imsaho

Sanctions yes, targeting oligarchs, no.

Russian oligarchs want their money in the West, where it can't be nationalized by China or stolen by Putin if they piss him off. Additionally, they want their penthouse apartment in NYC, villa on the French Riviera, country estate in Berkshire, Yacht 1 moored in Miami, Yacht 2 moored in Nice, kids attending Philips Exeter or Eton, etc....

The West has the means to lock all of that down pretty quickly. This is exactly the mechanism behind the Magnitsky Act, and we know the Magnitsky Act works because it's the only thing that appears to discomfit Putin.

The lever is so obvious, so clear, so workable, that it's so, so disappointing that apparently most western governments appear to lack the will to use it (or, like Trump & Boris, are apparently too compromised to use it).

I don't think Putin is the genius some make him out to be. But he did learn that the West can be bought and has spent decades making sure that all the key figures around the world are in his pocket.

We knock the US, but the UK is actually the place that Russians go to for money laundering. They are in a unique position to stop the war in its tracks by clamping down and freezing criminal assets. They won't, and will even go as far as to use their libel laws to shut journalists up to protect Russia.

[Edward64]

FWIW, I'm getting the latest news (or misinformation) from

Reddit - Dive into anything

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by BYU 14

dola - If true this won't make him happy either

Ukrainian ambassador says Russian platoon surrendered to Ukrainian forces

Those boys will have a nice welcome back home once this is all settled.

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by tarcone

I saw gas jumped to $3.44 here. And then I figured it out, Russia invades Ukraine? Profit opportunity.

Er, $3.44 is within normal range in Atlanta. Think it was about $3.30 about 2 weeks ago.

[Solecismic]

The war (and is it really a war when it's just one country trying to take over another country) stops if and only if Xi realizes that the EU/UK/US/Canada will pay a heavy price to isolate countries that act in this manner.

So far, we've blinked. No one expected NATO to activate militarily, but what we didn't know is whether we'd try and isolate Russia over the attack. Nope. Their oil and gas is still quite welcome in the west, and at inflated costs and without any sign we want to return to energy and materials independence.

Xi wins without having to lift a finger or risk a single troop. It's Putin's reputation and legacy in tatters. I don't see a Putingrad any time in the future. Not even another sanitized Volgograd or St. Petersburg.

[NobodyHere]

Originally Posted by Solecismic

The war (and is it really a war when it's just one country trying to take over another country) stops if and only if Xi realizes that the EU/UK/US/Canada will pay a heavy price to isolate countries that act in this manner.

If militaries are involved then it is a war.