POTUS 2024 - Harris vs Trump - General Election Discussion

[Lathum]

The rule requires the hand count to take place the night of the November election or the next day. But dozens of election officials said that would be physically impossible in all but the smallest counties.

This is the playbook. Count and certify the rural areas so it looks like Trump is winning late into the night, then when Atlanta count comes up scream fraud and how the dems are cheating because ballots mysteriously appeared over night.

[Ben E Lou]

Originally Posted by Ben E Lou

Yeah, the GOP is tryna get him outta there.

Or not.

pic.twitter.com/5qgxvQd1UO

— NCGOP (@NCGOP) September 20, 2024

[albionmoonlight]

As a Dem, I find it somewhat comforting that the GOP feels the need to start introducing maximum shenanigans this late in the game (Nebraska, Georgia). That means that their internal polling shows that they are losing. They weren't acting like this when Trump was up 5 over Biden.

As an American, I am scared b/c once you break Democracy, it is hard to fix it.

[cuervo72]

Originally Posted by Lathum

This is the playbook. Count and certify the rural areas so it looks like Trump is winning late into the night, then when Atlanta count comes up scream fraud and how the dems are cheating because ballots mysteriously appeared over night.

That, or miss the deadline and try to throw it to the House.

How Republicans Could Block a Democratic Victory in Georgia – Mother Jones

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by albionmoonlight

As a Dem, I find it somewhat comforting that the GOP feels the need to start introducing maximum shenanigans this late in the game (Nebraska, Georgia). That means that their internal polling shows that they are losing. They weren't acting like this when Trump was up 5 over Biden.

As an American, I am scared b/c once you break Democracy, it is hard to fix it.

Yeah. I can only assume their internal polling in the blue wall is really bad and Nebraska is a Hail Mary.

I’m really trying to be cautious but the more I think about it I think Harris could win in a landslide.

[Brian Swartz]

Originally Posted by albionmoonlight

As an American, I am scared b/c once you break Democracy, it is hard to fix it.

As an American, I'm scared because I don't believe Democracy works and because ours has been becoming more and more broken for decades, arguably generations. All of the deplorable election shenanigans could go away tomorrow and it wouldn't do any more than buy us a little more time.

[Atocep]

This is fantastic.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opini...m-walz-satire/

CNN and ProPublica found that Democratic vice-presidential nominee Tim Walz is the owner of an active account on the website HotOrNotDish.net, where he posts under the anonymous username DarthTater, according to an investigative analysis of comments on the forum. The user DarthTater has for more than a decade offered compliments (sometimes accompanied by a flame emoji) under every single photo uploaded to the site for hot dish appreciators.

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The account also mentioned the Rev. Martin Luther King Jr. in one post, in which it wished other HotOrNotDish.net users a “happy MLK weekend!” and hoped they would get to “spend it with family, eating hot dish.”

Walz appears to have been active under the same username for years on a variety of HotOrNotDish.net’s subforums for other hot dish-related issues, including once posting 24 times in a thread dedicated to the question of “Is hot dish casserole?” DarthTater ultimately concluded, “Sorry, friends. I’ve got to hit the hay. A lot of good points. Food for thought (almost as delicious as hot dish).”

Posts going back years include statements such as “That hot dish looks delicious” and “My only note? Try it with Schell’s beer. But what you have going looks good too!” and “Hope you’re enjoying that delicious dish with your beautiful family! Cherish your family! I know I cherish mine!”

DarthTater also expressed some viewpoints that matched with Walz’s public persona. In one instance, the user wrote, “National Coming Out Day is around the corner and I need to be on my A-game with snacks (I’m a GSA club sponsor). Any suggestions, hot dish friends?” adding, “Goes without saying, but, just in case, I disapprove of slavery.”

DarthTater was also the name Walz appears to have used on Quora, where that user often posted detailed replies to queries about the best snow tires to purchase.

Walz admitted that the account might be his, adding that he hoped he had not said anything that would offend anyone. “Those hot dishes all looked delicious,” he noted. “I wouldn’t want anyone to think that their hot dish didn’t pass muster.”

Another HotOrNotDish.net user, MarkRobinsonIsMyLegalNameAndThisIsMyRealEmailPleaseAskMeAboutNazismIAmForIt, complained about DarthTater’s posts being dragged into the news. “Why is it fair to bring in the things that people post anonymously on forums in their spare time?” the mystery poster asked. “Especially if, frankly, they’re not all that surprising.” (On the record, the legally named Mark Robinson denied engaging in any such behavior.)

MarkRobinsonIsMyLegalName was a less active HotOrNotDish.net poster, having left only one comment, “some folks need killing,” under a picture of a hot dish that had used cream of mushroom soup as its base.

[Ghost Econ]

Can't wait until the find Cam Edwards FOFC account one day.

[Ksyrup]

That's a name i haven't heard in years. I assume he's still doing the 2A stuff? I'd be afraid to see how radicalized he would have been forced to get to stay afloat as a podcast/online show host amongst the cesspool of awfulness that he'd be competing with for clicks.

[GrantDawg]

Someone on twitter asked this question, and you know I enjoy gaming out a good thought exercise. "If Brian Kemp were the nominee for president and won, would he do anything different policy wise than trump?"
I do not like Brian Kemp, and disagree with him on many things, but the only thing I can think of that he would be worst then Trump on is that he would definitely sign a national abortion ban. Other than that, he plays on the social warfare angles but less extreme than the full MAGA people. He is more classic style voter suppression than full on disenfranchisement of Trump. He is basically MAGA-lite. Closer akin to classic conservatives than full fascist like Desantis. When we talk about what comes after Trump, I think Kemp is trying to lead that replacement. Enough MAGA to keep the extreme on board without going so far you make the suburban moms to throw up in their mouths.

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by GrantDawg

Someone on twitter asked this question, and you know I enjoy gaming out a good thought exercise. "If Brian Kemp were the nominee for president and won, would he do anything different policy wise than trump?"

Kemp would do whatever his wife tells him to.

That dimwitted sack of shit being in office is the #2 motivation for me moving out of Georgia.

[GrantDawg]

Originally Posted by JonInMiddleGA

Kemp would do whatever his wife tells him to.

That dimwitted sack of shit being in office is the #2 motivation for me moving out of Georgia.

I meant to mention, I know there are people like Jon that hates him.


Edit: Just to add that is why I think he might be successful Post-Trump. There are hard core MAGA people in the state that hate him, but he still pulled more than enough of the MAGA demo to win reelection quite handily. He will most likely become Senator in 2 years over Jon Ossoff, and that is really depressing. Ossoff has been a great Senator, and has been very successful at getting many bi-partisan reforms done as a freshman.

[Ksyrup]

Bipartisan is the new racist in terms of electability, it seems.

[Atocep]

Originally Posted by Ksyrup

Bipartisan is the new racist in terms of electability, it seems.

We can thank Supreme Court approved gerrymandering. The number of actual competitive districts anywhere is so small there's no need for moderation at any level of elected government now.

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by GrantDawg

He will most likely become Senator in 2 years over Jon Ossoff

Why, will he be Secretary of State again when he's running?

[GrantDawg]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

Why, will he be Secretary of State again when he's running?

He wasn't the last time he won a state election.

[GrantDawg]

Harris has accepted a proposed CNN debate on October 23rd. It is unlikely Trump will accept, but also that is so late.

[NobodyHere]

Originally Posted by GrantDawg

Harris has excepted a proposed CNN debate on October 23rd. It is unlikely Trump will accept, but also that is so late.

But will Harris accept the proposed CNN debate?

[JPhillips]

My Pillow guy goes full Nazi.

Sleep like a dream with our Standard MyPillow for just $14.88! Use promo code R277 to snag this deal and wake up feeling refreshed every morning. Don't miss out on the ultimate comfort upgrade - get yours today! https://t.co/CSOJIp3t1p pic.twitter.com/8ss7s3jLy6

— MyPillow (@MyPillowUSA) September 20, 2024

[Atocep]

It's too obvious for the people that look for hidden codes in everything.

[JPhillips]

Please don't be dumb enough to buy $30 dollars of silver from Trump for $100.

[Drake]

I just got an e-mail from Rural King about the Trump AR-15 that's easily twice the cost of a similar tier AR-15, so $100 for $30 worth of silver wouldn't surprise me.

On the other hand, 30 pieces of silver seems like the right price to betray your country.

[stevew]

A My Pillow for the cost of 14 Heil Hitler Dollars sounds like a good price. I’m sure they only come in white

[JPhillips]

Amazing to me that a nut like RFK Jr is so close to having some real power.

"We're going to get the fluoride out of the water. We're going to get the chemicals out of the food. We're going to get the chemtrails out, the chemicals out of the chemtrails."

[Lathum]

How exactly are they going to have less regulations on corporations and at the same time force companies to use less chemicals?

[albionmoonlight]

I saw a common sense point this morning that I had not actually considered. Candidates need to grab low information and undecided voters. So they should not campaign on policy. Because, by definition, voters who care about policy are not low information and not undecided. They’ve already picked the party whose policies they agree with. Campaign on vibes. Govern on policy.

[Ben E Lou]

Originally Posted by albionmoonlight

Campaign on vibes.

That was a takeaway I had from the story about your neighbor who wanted an Obama/Palin ticket.

[albionmoonlight]

Originally Posted by Ben E Lou

That was a takeaway I had from the story about your neighbor who wanted an Obama/Palin ticket.

[GrantDawg]

Originally Posted by albionmoonlight

I saw a common sense point this morning that I had not actually considered. Candidates need to grab low information and undecided voters. So they should not campaign on policy. Because, by definition, voters who care about policy are not low information and not undecided. They’ve already picked the party whose policies they agree with. Campaign on vibes. Govern on policy.

I heard the same thing from several pundits. As much as people consider undecided voters the "persuadable" voter, in reality they generally have leans and are going to break pretty predictably. The real wild cards are the low information voter who are just anti-politics, but will still vote in Presidential years. They will tend to break basically on just what you said, vibes.

[Ksyrup]

Which argues for a shortened Presidential campaign season as it's hard to ride vibes only for 18+ months. Harris certainly has an advantage from that perspective.

[Ben E Lou]

Welp. MAGA may not believe the Robinson story, but apparently Robinson's entire senior campaign staff and nearly all of the lower-level staffers do.

I've confirmed that @markrobinsonNC is down to just three campaign staffers -- there were more resignations beyond the four senior campaign staffers named in today's announcement: https://t.co/yL2kwEJQIZ #ncpol

— Colin Campbell (@RaleighReporter) September 22, 2024

[Ghost Econ]

I was driving through the back roads of North Carolina (think whatever is between TN and Asheville) and I saw a home with Trump and Stein signs outside.

What the hell is the cross section between Donald Trump and Josh Stein supporters? Is it just that they're so racist that they can't support the black guy who hates black people?

[flere-imsaho]

Maybe one spouse is the Trump supporter and the other is the Stein supporter?

[Ksyrup]

This is one of the saddest things I've ever seen. Even worse that a 4 year old would actually want this which means he's been indoctrinated well at such an early age - and you have to assume it was "suggested" by the parents.

But no, it's not a cult - totally normal for a 4 year old to have a political candidate-themed birthday party and to make the party more about your cult leader than your child. Sheesh.

It's my grandsons 4th birthday party today!
Tyner's Trump 202FOURTH Birthday. pic.twitter.com/sjEnj9qcW6

— Tracy (@TracyTruth17) September 21, 2024

[Ben E Lou]

Originally Posted by NobodyHere

Are we sure that it isn't RFK Jr running around eating our pets? That sounds like it could be a true RFK Jr story.

Originally Posted by Ben E Lou

Welp. MAGA may not believe the Robinson story, but apparently Robinson's entire senior campaign staff and nearly all of the lower-level staffers do.







Robinson has a new campaign manager...or maybe he doesn't?

I am officially announcing tonight that I have assumed the position of acting Campaign Manager for @markrobinsonNC

Mark is a great American and a PERFECT governor for North Carolina.

We look forward to a BIG victory in November!

— Jack Burkman (@Jack_Burkman) September 22, 2024




Online rumors of new hires to our campaign are just that - rumors. We look forward to announcing additional staff roles soon. #ncpol #ncgov

— Mark Robinson (@markrobinsonNC) September 23, 2024

My favorite headline so far: ‘Black Nazi’ Mark Robinson Denies Hiring MAGA Troll Fraudster as Campaign Manager

[Atocep]

The Trump campaign is sending targeted ads out to Georgia voters using shutterstock pics from the country Georgia.

[JPhillips]

I don't know where the number stands, but I'm 100% sure that the 10 point swing in AZ shown by NYT over the past month isn't true. There isn't any state that's swung ten points to either candidate over the past month.

[Ksyrup]

Originally Posted by Atocep

The Trump campaign is sending targeted ads out to Georgia voters using shutterstock pics from the country Georgia.

I swear that's not the first time the GOP has done this.

[Lathum]

Percentage of Trump voters that even know there is a country named Georgia? 5, maybe 10%?

[GrantDawg]

"I did not post those comments, but whatever you do, don't look in to it!"

Breaking:

After CNN reported that Mark Robinson posted racist and lewd comments on a pornographic website ...
|
Robinson REJECTED offers from supporters to track down the origin of the posts, sources tell WRAL. #ncpolhttps://t.co/4QbaPykeXX

— Andy Specht (@AndySpecht) September 23, 2024

[albionmoonlight]

You know, if* Trump loses, a lot of it will be because he ended Roe

And there's an irony in Trump losing because of abortion. Because can you think of a GOP politician who would care less about abortion than Trump? I assume that his personal belief falls somewhere between not caring at all and vaguely thinking that it is nice if your mistress can conveniently get an abortion.

I mean, if Mike Pence or Mike Hucakabee lost an election because they helped ban abortion, there would be a bit of nobility in that. They wouldn't like losing, but they could be proud that they lost for doing the politically unpopular but morally right thing.

But Trump? To lose on something that he didn't care about? Or that he even did not agree with? Funny in its way.

*[Of course, he could still win.]

[HerRealName]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

I don't know where the number stands, but I'm 100% sure that the 10 point swing in AZ shown by NYT over the past month isn't true. There isn't any state that's swung ten points to either candidate over the past month.

Have you seen any analysis on why the NYT/Sienna polls seem like such an outlier this election cycle? They seem to be further out there than Rasmussen at this point.

[Ksyrup]

Bulwark touched on it today, and I was feeling the same over the weekend as I was pushed articles from a bunch of different sites alternately telling me that Trump was winning the swing states, closing in nationally, and losing ground while Harris had lost momentum, was winning in swing states, and expanding her lead nationally.

It's information overload to the nth degree. It's all useless at this kind of contradictory saturation point.

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by Ksyrup

Which argues for a shortened Presidential campaign season as it's hard to ride vibes only for 18+ months. Harris certainly has an advantage from that perspective.

Being a double-digit IQ socialist is a "vibe"?

Who knew.

[sovereignstar v2]

oh burn

[Brian Swartz]

Originally Posted by KSyrup

It's information overload to the nth degree. It's all useless at this kind of contradictory saturation point.

Ehh, this I don't buy.

I think Harris is still ahead a little, but it's tightening as one would expect. I also think it's possible I'm completely wrong, most likely reason would be polls being off in one way or another (most likely being overestimating Trump's support a bit). I think either candidate could still win by a decent margin, or it could be very close, but if I had to bet I'd bet on Harris, even dispensing with my personal feelings.

But this is kind of what pseudoscience does; throws enough stuff at the wall so you don't know what to believe. Polling isn't much different; there's a lot of bad information in the mix, but if you filter that out there's always good information to be found that's a lot more likely to be accurate.

[JPhillips]

Trump has a plan to pay off the debt, he'll just sign a paper that says crypto pays all 35 trillion.

But Harris needs to flesh out her plans.

[Atocep]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

Trump has a plan to pay off the debt, he'll just sign a paper that says crypto pays all 35 trillion.

But Harris needs to flesh out her plans.

He also doesn't have a plan to deport millions but he said it would be a lot easier to do if the media didn't cover it.

[HerRealName]

I've been using this as an aggregator site for polling but maybe there is a better one available. Even Rasmussen has Harris +2 so the NYT polling is strange.

National : President: general election : 2024 Polls | FiveThirtyEight

[cuervo72]

If he weren’t backed by types like Miller, I could see his plan being to say that he is going to do it, not do anything, then say he did it and have everyone believe him because their lives aren’t affected by immigrants one bit (like the guy in PA interviewed at a rally the other day who admitted that no, they’re not hurting him personally).