2015-2016 Republican Primary Season - Trump Courts the Conservatives

[Dutch]

Agreed, but he still meets the qualifications of being president. He's old enough.

[Marc Vaughan]

Originally Posted by molson

The man doesn't even understand the basics of how the Supreme Court works.

I think he does - however I think he's playing to a voter base which has no idea and will appreciate his diatribe no matter how illogical if it plays to their baser feelings and motivations ...

[Dutch]

The counter point is that Hillary doesn't understand how national security works...but it depends on who's team your own if that's relevant or not.

[Dutch]

Originally Posted by Marc Vaughan

I think he does - however I think he's playing to a voter base which has no idea and will appreciate his diatribe no matter how illogical if it plays to their baser feelings and motivations ...

You give him too much credit...and give too much credit to others voter base. We're dealing with about 50% of all voters being too stupid to vote logically.

[larrymcg421]

Originally Posted by Dutch

The counter point is that Hillary doesn't understand how national security works...but it depends on who's team your own if that's relevant or not.

I don't think that's a good comparison. She may have a different philosophy of national security, but she knows how it works.

For example, Cruz and Obama have different philosophies about what makes a good Supreme Court Justice, but they both know that the court doesn't independently investigate criminal activity.

[Dutch]

Well, I was thinking about her personal e-mail server that wasn't cleared for national security discussions...

[larrymcg421]

Originally Posted by Marc Vaughan

I think he does - however I think he's playing to a voter base which has no idea and will appreciate his diatribe no matter how illogical if it plays to their baser feelings and motivations ...

Not sure why you quoted molson here, but the reason I disagree is the way his statement was worded. The way he repeats the same phrase twice reads to me as more clueless than calculating.

[flere-imsaho]

Originally Posted by Dutch

Well, I was thinking about her personal e-mail server that wasn't cleared for national security discussions...

That's not even remotely equivalent, and you know it.

[Dutch]

True, it's proven action vs BS rhetoric...

[Dutch]

Speaking of BS rhetoric....telling Japan and S Korea to get their own nukes is the ultimate stupid side of isolationism....this jackass...

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by Dutch

The counter point is that Hillary doesn't understand how national security works...but it depends on who's team your own if that's relevant or not.

Oh I'd say she -- conceptually -- understands the process. She's just largely opposed to the existence of it.

[wustin]

Originally Posted by larrymcg421

Trump responding to a question from Good Morning America on who he'd appoint to the Supreme Court:



The man doesn't even understand the basics of how the Supreme Court works.

And neither do most Americans.

[albionmoonlight]

NC Republican Party chair says divide could affect state’s presidential delegates | News & Observer

I imagine that this is playing out in 50 state parties right now.

[vex]

Delegates ready to flee Trump at contested convention - POLITICO

[flere-imsaho]

The trainwreck potential is off the charts.

[PilotMan]

I think Trump is already at the point where he is either getting the nomination or he's taking his votes and he is plowing into the general to make as much of a mess as he can.

[EagleFan]

Donald Trump's Huge Campaign Announcement - YouTube

[EagleFan]

Sadly the above link would actually be the best possible scenario...

[Ryche]

Originally Posted by PilotMan

I think Trump is already at the point where he is either getting the nomination or he's taking his votes and he is plowing into the general to make as much of a mess as he can.

Agreed. And if he doesn't have the votes to get it without a contested convention I don't see him getting the nomination. That's where organization and working the delegates comes into play and he doesn't stand a chance at that against Cruz.

[Dutch]

Originally Posted by EagleFan

Sadly the above link would actually be the best possible scenario...

I've been calling that along with a Rubio win from the beginning. Shows what I know...

[Solecismic]

My sense is that the last two weeks have seriously harmed Trump chances of winning the presidency. The freshness of his Apprentice approach to campaigning is gone. His gaffes on proposed policy are being taken seriously. The ABT movement is being embraced where it wasn't before.

If the polling from Wisconsin is accurate, he won't win there. The geography favors him down the road, but the contests are closed. And if he doesn't reach 1,237, his chances in a contested convention are much lower now.

However, Cruz is playing this game to win. The rules as written now may prevent any name other than Cruz or Trump from being nominated. As we're in the month-long "spring break" from the primary, Wisconsin being the only contest during that period, Cruz is working hard on conventioneering.

Trump has probably reached a point where he can't win the general even if he hangs on to the nomination and even against one of the most flawed and disliked major candidates we've ever had (he's even more flawed and disliked).

[Dutch]

The only wildcard left is Clinton vs Trump/Cruz head on, but Clinton seems much more capable of remaining moderate and that will play well to a larger audience come election time.

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by Solecismic

Trump has probably reached a point where he can't win the general even if he hangs on to the nomination and even against one of the most flawed and disliked major candidates we've ever had (he's even more flawed and disliked).

We're also at a point where any trailing candidate that emerges from a brokered convention has no chance of beating HC even if they are handed the nomination by cowards & fools.

So, basically then, it's already over no matter what.

[Solecismic]

Originally Posted by Dutch

The only wildcard left is Clinton vs Trump/Cruz head on, but Clinton seems much more capable of remaining moderate and that will play well to a larger audience come election time.

If you've been watching the Democratic debates, though, she has moved so far to the left that if she tries to come back for the general, it opens her to attack ads painting her as a waffler. Of course, the same attack ads will paint her as an extremist if she doesn't come back.

What have been the biggest applause lines for the Republicans? Cruz, early on, was able to articulate the problems conservatives have had with a left-wing media. And several candidates have scored with messages of support for the police.

Meanwhile, I think Trump hurt himself badly in a way he hadn't before. First, he took a position on abortion that not even most staunch right-wingers take - women who get abortions should be jailed. Yikes. He already had a problem with women - now it's a big problem. Then he claimed he misspoke and was misquoted, or both or something. No, he was fairly clear at the time. And that makes people worry that a 70-year-old with his finger on the proverbial nuclear button gets confused easily or just doesn't really care about the positions he takes.

I think this is enough to keep him significantly under 1,237.

And I think this gives the Republicans a story line for the convention, though the lead players are far too egotistical to try and get there. A truly united ABT movement could make a deal with Trump. Instead, it will likely be chaos and result in a candidate moving forward with most of the party thoroughly alienated.

[Ben E Lou]

Originally Posted by Solecismic

If you've been watching the Democratic debates, though, she has moved so far to the left that if she tries to come back for the general, it opens her to attack ads painting her as a waffler. Of course, the same attack ads will paint her as an extremist if she doesn't come back.

I've been trying to imagine the sorts of attacks that Trump would run on her. The thought boggles the mind...

[Solecismic]

Originally Posted by Ben E Lou

I've been trying to imagine the sorts of attacks that Trump would run on her. The thought boggles the mind...

I'm thinking he leads off with a stage play showing an abandoned Vince Foster on a park bench juxtaposed with Hillary writing notes at a desk.

Then we have the standard barking Hillary ad, this time in response to terrorists storming the Libyan embassy.

We could wind up with a demonic sheep ad. This could tie in with Whitewater.

One thing is for certain - if he somehow wins the nomination, he needs to pivot away from the issues. You'd think someone who has been doing this for almost a year now could be at least sentient in response to tough issues questions... but no.

At this point, he has managed to portray himself, at least with respect to southeast Asia, as only slightly more grounded than the quickly ballooning dictator of North Korea. In a region used to presidents/dictators/etc. with far more power than western leaders, I can imagine they're terrified of a Trump presidency.

[cuervo72]

Originally Posted by Solecismic

Meanwhile, I think Trump hurt himself badly in a way he hadn't before. First, he took a position on abortion that not even most staunch right-wingers take - women who get abortions should be jailed. Yikes.

Publicly or by candidates, anyway.

Women are already being prosecuted for having abortions | MSNBC

Women Are Being Arrested and Jailed for Self-Abortion | The Nation

Women Are Already Being Prosecuted for Having Abortions

[Dutch]

Originally Posted by JonInMiddleGA

We're also at a point where any trailing candidate that emerges from a brokered convention has no chance of beating HC even if they are handed the nomination by cowards & fools.

So, basically then, it's already over no matter what.

It was over the moment people like you told people like me to go fly a kite. (GOP schism of 2016).

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by Dutch

It was over the moment people like you told people like me to go fly a kite. (GOP schism of 2016).

If you didn't have enough sense to back Trump {shrug} in this field then it was over before it really started anyway.

In hindsight, I'm just glad Cruz showed his true colors when he did. I honestly couldn't be more repulsed by a Trump heel turn in office than I was by Cruz' comments after the protester incident. And those were the only two serious candidates (i.e. I never felt like Huckabee nor Santorum were even in this year) that had any chance at all of my vote.

[Warhammer]

Originally Posted by Dutch

It was over the moment people like you told people like me to go fly a kite. (GOP schism of 2016).

+2 it amazes me that Reagan would not win the nomination today because he is not pure enough. Then the same fools turn and back Trump. Why? Because he talks good. He don't take crap from no one and tells it like it is.

The sad part is, the GOP will fragment and the Left will run things for the foreseeable future.

[EagleFan]

Originally Posted by JonInMiddleGA

If you didn't have enough sense to back Trump {shrug} in this field then it was over before it really started anyway.

In hindsight, I'm just glad Cruz showed his true colors when he did. I honestly couldn't be more repulsed by a Trump heel turn in office than I was by Cruz' comments after the protester incident. And those were the only two serious candidates (i.e. I never felt like Huckabee nor Santorum were even in this year) that had any chance at all of my vote.

There is no "sense" in backing drumpf. Anyone that does is a fool.

[flere-imsaho]

Does anyone here know how the RNC convention rules on voting are going to work? As in:

Who's eligible? I thought I heard anyone who got any delegates during the whole process.

For votes after the first, do all candidates stay in, or is there a series of run offs?

If the answer to #1 is yes and the answer to #2 is no, it's quite possible the convention bogs down into an interminable series of more and more chaotic votes with no one getting a majority. Imagine the optics if they're still trying to vote the day after the convention is supposed to end. Or if they're still voting when the Democratic convention starts a week later?

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by EagleFan

There is no "sense" in backing drumpf. Anyone that does is a fool.

He's the only candidate left in the field worthy of a vote. The others simply waste perfectly good oxygen.

edit to add: And, yes, there's every possibility that he belongs in the same category ... he just hasn't proven that beyond a shadow of a doubt yet, unlike the others.

[Ben E Lou]

Originally Posted by flere-imsaho

Does anyone here know how the RNC convention rules on voting are going to work? As in:

Who's eligible? I thought I heard anyone who got any delegates during the whole process.

For votes after the first, do all candidates stay in, or is there a series of run offs?

If the answer to #1 is yes and the answer to #2 is no, it's quite possible the convention bogs down into an interminable series of more and more chaotic votes with no one getting a majority. Imagine the optics if they're still trying to vote the day after the convention is supposed to end. Or if they're still voting when the Democratic convention starts a week later?

Well, the fun part here is that per the rules, they can change the rules basically whenever they feel like it.

As of this moment, my understanding is that the only people eligible in the second and subsequent votes are candidates who have won at least eight primaries (i.e. Cruz and Trump). But that was a new rule put in place in 2008 or 2012 (I think 2012), and my understanding is that it's on the table to be changed again this year.

[EagleFan]

Originally Posted by JonInMiddleGA

He's the only candidate left in the field worthy of a vote. The others simply waste perfectly good oxygen.

edit to add: And, yes, there's every possibility that he belongs in the same category ... he just hasn't proven that beyond a shadow of a doubt yet, unlike the others.

He has proven it. I have lived through what he did to Atlantic City to witness first hand how poorly he runs things. He is a con man stroking his own and nothing more. All he cares about is seeing his name in lights.

[Ben E Lou]

Originally Posted by Ben E Lou

But that was a new rule put in place in 2008 or 2012 (I think 2012), and my understanding is that it's on the table to be changed again this year.

Found it. Put in place in 2012, likely to squeeze out Ron Paul.

Ted Cruz warns against changing RNC's 2012 rule requiring eight-state threshold - Washington Times

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by EagleFan

All he cares about is seeing his name in lights.

If in doing that he gets stuff right, then I'll take it.
That's more reason for hope than I see from the rest of the remnants.

A guy who ought to just go ahead & be a (D) since he's no conservative and a guy that has reached the point of being willing to say anything -- and more critically, the absolute wrong thing -- because he's become that desperate to win & somehow validate himself ... those aren't options.

[EagleFan]

If you think Trump is a conservative you are already brainwashed beyond help.

[JPhillips]

Interesting look at trade issues in the election. The GOP is now the anti-trade party.

[Dutch]

Originally Posted by Kodos

On his genitals.

IRT Rubio warts...who knew this was going to be a talking point on page 2...

Originally Posted by Solecismic

So... Trump is still a "birther" and he proposes bombing Iraq's oil fields in order to strike at ISIS.

And he's gaining in the polls.

It's past time to get him off the stage. Though he's threatening to run as a third party.

I'm beginning to wonder if he's Hillary's secret campaign manager.

Originally Posted by Dutch

Agreed, he's almost single-handedly making people vote for Hillary...or not vote...thats for sure.

And also on page 2.....

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by JonInMiddleGA

We're also at a point where any trailing candidate that emerges from a brokered convention has no chance of beating HC even if they are handed the nomination by cowards & fools.

So, basically then, it's already over no matter what.

I don't think they would be doing it to win the Presidency (that's already been lost). The goal would be to save the House and Senate.

[molson]

I think there's a sizable minority of Republicans (including many in power) that would prefer Clinton to Trump.

[Dutch]

I'm okay with Hillary only because she may be willing to reach out across the aisle...the only one left in the race that looks capable of that. It's not joy, just a hopeful concession.

[flere-imsaho]

Originally Posted by Dutch

I'm okay with Hillary only because she may be willing to reach out across the aisle...

*falls over dead*

Originally Posted by Dutch

I'm okay with Hillary only because she may be willing to reach out across the aisle...

OK, now that I've recovered, I agree, of course, I just wonder, based on the evidence of the past 8 years, if anyone's going to reciprocate on the other side.

[Warhammer]

HRC scares me for exactly that reason, she might get something done. Not sure I see Bernie or Trump getting anything done.

[albionmoonlight]

Trump's bad media week has coincided with a dead spot in the primary season. As long as there are primaries, he can win those and drive the narrative. But when there are none, it lets his opponents chip away at him.

If the establishment does not concede, then the long period between California and the convention may not be good for Trump's support.

[Dutch]

Originally Posted by flere-imsaho

*falls over dead*



OK, now that I've recovered, I agree, of course, I just wonder, based on the evidence of the past 8 years, if anyone's going to reciprocate on the other side.

It all depends on how it's framed. It's up to the two parties....not one.

[SackAttack]

Originally Posted by Dutch

It all depends on how it's framed. It's up to the two parties....not one.

and every time Barack Obama took one step towards the Republicans in the first half of his Presidency, the Republicans took two steps the other way.

You...you do understand what "moving goalposts" are, and how they might relate to a political party which has as its stated goal, from day one, "making Barack Obama a one-term President," right?

[Solecismic]

Wisconsin votes today. Almost the last of the open primaries, but Trump has struggled fairly badly the last couple of weeks.

RCP Average: Cruz 39, Trump 35, Kasich 20.

42 delegates are available, 18 WTA to the state winner, and 8 WTA congressional districts with 3 delegates.

Current Standings: Trump 753, Cruz 478, Kasich 144, Others 188, Unbound 84.

Required to Reach 1,237: Trump 58.7%, Cruz 92.0%.

My expectation is Cruz 36, Trump 6. That would move Trump to needing 61.0% of the remaining delegates, Cruz to 92.3%.

Let's say Trump surprises everyone and pulls off a 36-6 of his own. That would drop him to needing 57.2% and Cruz 96.2%.

Today's vote should give us a little more insight as to whether Trump has a low ceiling.

Meanwhile, Cruz's organization is making headway electing delegates at state conventions. Most states allow delegates to become free agents after the first ballot. So there's a lot of effort electing Cruz supporters as Trump delegates. There's a growing feeling that if Trump doesn't reach 1,237, Cruz will lock it up on subsequent votes.

[QuikSand]

Anyone see anything tasty from TradeIt now?

RNOM16 Latest Buy Yes Sell Yes Buy No Sell No
Donald Trump
Donald Trump
TRUMP.RNOM16
45¢ NC 45¢ 44¢ 56¢ 55¢
Ted Cruz
Ted Cruz
CRUZ.RNOM16
34¢ 1¢ 34¢ 33¢ 67¢ 66¢
Paul Ryan
Paul Ryan
RYAN.RNOM16
17¢ 1¢ 17¢ 16¢ 84¢ 83¢
John Kasich
John Kasich
KASICH.RNOM16
9¢ 1¢ 9¢ 8¢ 92¢ 91¢
Mitt Romney
Mitt Romney
ROMNEY.RNOM16
5¢ NC 6¢ 5¢ 95¢ 94¢
Marco Rubio
Marco Rubio
RUBIO.RNOM16
2¢ 1¢ 2¢ 1¢ 99¢ 98¢
Scott Walker
Scott Walker
WALKER.RNOM16
1¢ 2¢ 2¢ 1¢ 99¢ 98¢
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I was wondering where Ryan would be... 17% seems about right to me right now, though.