Werewolf XXV: A long time ago...game over, Sith win,full role listing at 2030

[tanglewood]

I think Qwik is just trying to be a smartass Jedi, which is almost making me suspocious because if he is a Sith he has made just about the perfect move to get himself looking good. Bizzare considering the raeson he got heat in the first place was because it was pointed out that wolves had used such a tactic before successfully!

However, I was semi-suspicious of Lahum on day 1 due to the convertion claim, then the random vote getting called on. Today with the allegation of being set up, I think he is fishy nough for a vote.

Vote Lathum

[hoopsguy]

I don't have a good defense for Lathum, although up until the "they set me up by killing Alan" post I didn't see anything from Lathum that is much different than his normal play.

If we end up with a tight race like this at the end of the day I think that is beneficial to the Jedi. If we kill Lathum that doesn't go towards my initial thought on gaining trust/distrust of the three guys from yesterday, but two days worth of voting data in tight races should give us a lot of information to work with as well. So I think that is about a wash.

If Lathum is lynched today as a Sith, then
1.) Sweet, one down
2.) What does this mean about Qwikshot?
3.) What does this mean about everyone else?

If Quikshot is lynched today as a Sith, then
1.) Sweet, one down
2.) What does this mean about Lathum?
3.) What does this mean about everyone else?

Now, flip those assumptions around:

If Qwikshot is lynched today as a Jedi, then
1.) Dammit, we gave the Sith a free pass for two days
2.) What does this mean about Lathum?
3.) What does this mean about everyone else?

If Lathum is lynched today as a Jedi, then
1.) Dammit
2.) Is anyone not voting for Qwikshot on Day 3, absent a seer scan?
3.) What does this mean about everyone else?

[tanglewood]

Hoops, I don't quite get your logic. Are you essentially saying that we should lynch Jedi so we can cast suspicion on the people who voted for him and clear those who didn't? Surely we'd just end up blindly lynching whoever was the highest vote count from yesterday that hasn't yet been lynched? Isn't it much better if we actually vote for who we think is most likely to be a Sith, as opposed to who would clear/incriminate the most people if they turn up Jedi? What you sugest is voting with a negative mindset and taking the wrong approach IMHO.

[hoopsguy]

Desnudo, if you ask me if I think it is more likely that Lathum is a Sith than Qwik is a Sith, then I would say yes. But that is by a pretty narrow margin.

Assuming 4 Sith, there is a random 20% chance that anyone is a Sith. So someone you have no read on is 20%.

I would put both Lathum and Qwikshot in the 25-30% range as far as likelihood.

The chances of two random candidates both being Jedi is 64% (0.8 * 0.8).
If I assign a 30% likelihood, individually, to each of these guys being Sith, then there is a 51% chance that they are both Jedi (0.7 * 0.7).

If they are both Jedi, which I think is just as likely (if not moreso) than 1/1 Jedi/Sith split between them, then where are we?

At this point, if I switch my vote from Qwik to Lathum it is only to try and draw action in the other direction rather than reflecting confidence in one candidate over the other.

[hoopsguy]

Tanglewood, if you have a high degree of certainty in your vote then absolutely. The first rule with your vote is to hang a wolf.

If you aren't certain, and I'm saying that I'm not, then I would rather look at broader implications. All things being equal (or close to it), what gives me more information?

I recognize by taking this stand that I'm starting to create associations with Lathum in people's minds because people are convinced he is a Sith. If the vote stands up, we'll find that out tonight.

If Lathum and I are both Sith I would have abandoned this position a few hours ago. Or never taken it in the first place.

[hoopsguy]

"I will be shocked if Qwikshot is a Sith" - Desnudo doesn't think Qwik is Sith

"So basically people are voting for Qwik for clarity, knowing that he's 99% a jedi" - the only people who are 99% sure on Jedi are the Sith and possibly the seer if he viewed Qwik on Night 0 or Night 1.

I'm sorry that you don't like my argument, but I think you are making a huge inductive leap going from saying you believe Qwik to saying that everyone is voting for clarity.

[tanglewood]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Tanglewood, if you have a high degree of certainty in your vote then absolutely. The first rule with your vote is to hang a wolf.

If you aren't certain, and I'm saying that I'm not, then I would rather look at broader implications. All things being equal (or close to it), what gives me more information?

I recognize by taking this stand that I'm starting to create associations with Lathum in people's minds because people are convinced he is a Sith. If the vote stands up, we'll find that out tonight.

If Lathum and I are both Sith I would have abandoned this position a few hours ago. Or never taken it in the first place.

No i don't thikn you're in league with Lathum as such, just that you (to me) seem a bit misguided.

No I am not certain about Lathum, there are very few situations in WW where you can be certain about anyone on anything. But if I am 40% sure of Lathum being a Sith compared with 30% for Qwik, then I wil vote Lathum every time. The goal of voting is to lynch baddies, so you should have to vote for who you suspect more almost regardless of the situation IMHO*.


*The only exception off the top of my head is if you suspect A the most, B a bit and C not at all, but only B and C are gaining interest from the village and are close in vote total. Then you should vote B in order to get a lynch if neccesary.

[Desnudo]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Desnudo, if you ask me if I think it is more likely that Lathum is a Sith than Qwik is a Sith, then I would say yes. But that is by a pretty narrow margin.

Assuming 4 Sith, there is a random 20% chance that anyone is a Sith. So someone you have no read on is 20%.

I would put both Lathum and Qwikshot in the 25-30% range as far as likelihood.

The chances of two random candidates both being Jedi is 64% (0.8 * 0.8).
If I assign a 30% likelihood, individually, to each of these guys being Sith, then there is a 51% chance that they are both Jedi (0.7 * 0.7).

If they are both Jedi, which I think is just as likely (if not moreso) than 1/1 Jedi/Sith split between them, then where are we?

At this point, if I switch my vote from Qwik to Lathum it is only to try and draw action in the other direction rather than reflecting confidence in one candidate over the other.

I put Qwik around 5%. Lathum probably around 35%. I don't see the risk/reward in Qwik's strategy if he is evil. The reward isn't high enough for the risk involved.

The only way Qwik is a Sith is if he is the hidden one because he was surely scanned last night as an obvious target. And must have known that he would surely be scanned last night. Even if he wasn't last night, he's got to be high on the seer's list.

[Desnudo]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

"I will be shocked if Qwikshot is a Sith" - Desnudo doesn't think Qwik is Sith

"So basically people are voting for Qwik for clarity, knowing that he's 99% a jedi" - the only people who are 99% sure on Jedi are the Sith and possibly the seer if he viewed Qwik on Night 0 or Night 1.

I'm sorry that you don't like my argument, but I think you are making a huge inductive leap going from saying you believe Qwik to saying that everyone is voting for clarity.

Well what else are they voting for then? I don't want to go down this path again with you. Does anyone think Qwik is really a Sith?

[pennywisesb]

I, for one, do not think he is, but I'm not really prepared to give percentages about it. To me, Lathum is much more suspicious compared to Qwik, hence my vote.

[Qwikshot]

unvote Qwikshot

[Vince]

Originally Posted by tanglewood

No i don't thikn you're in league with Lathum as such, just that you (to me) seem a bit misguided.

No I am not certain about Lathum, there are very few situations in WW where you can be certain about anyone on anything. But if I am 40% sure of Lathum being a Sith compared with 30% for Qwik, then I wil vote Lathum every time. The goal of voting is to lynch baddies, so you should have to vote for who you suspect more almost regardless of the situation IMHO*.


*The only exception off the top of my head is if you suspect A the most, B a bit and C not at all, but only B and C are gaining interest from the village and are close in vote total. Then you should vote B in order to get a lynch if neccesary.

Man, I really want to post this long post about voting strategy right now, but that would be uncool. So I'll just sit here on my own thoughts, and discuss them after the game is over.

Carry on.

[pennywisesb]

updated vote count:

Lathum-Barkeep, Pennywisesb, Desnudo, Sackattack, Dubb, JeeberD, Grammaticus, KWhit, Tanglewood (9)

Qwik-Hoops, Cartman, McKerney, SnDvls, Schmidty, KingFC (6)

Tanglewood-Lathum (1)

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by Vince

Man, I really want to post this long post about voting strategy right now, but that would be uncool. So I'll just sit here on my own thoughts, and discuss them after the game is over.

Carry on.

You can PM your thoughts to me Vince! I need some action!

*mutters something about always dying early*

[pennywisesb]

Originally Posted by Vince

Man, I really want to post this long post about voting strategy right now, but that would be uncool. So I'll just sit here on my own thoughts, and discuss them after the game is over.

Carry on.

Stay out....

[hoopsguy]

Tangle, misguided in what sense?
a.) that I don't think that Lathum = Sith
b.) that my voting rationale doesn't make sense to you?
c.) Other

More than one could apply, I suppose ...

[tanglewood]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Tangle, misguided in what sense?
a.) that I don't think that Lathum = Sith
b.) that my voting rationale doesn't make sense to you?
c.) Other

More than one could apply, I suppose ...

b

Misguided is a strong word, but I can't hink of anything else appropriate at the moment. If you have Qwik and Lathum at even or very, very close, then it makes sense. But if one has a preference, even a slight one, one way or the other I'd think it would be sensible to commit on that basis rather than a 'informational' basis.

[Desnudo]

Originally Posted by tanglewood

b

Misguided is a strong word, but I can't hink of anything else appropriate at the moment. If you have Qwik and Lathum at even or very, very close, then it makes sense. But if one has a preference, even a slight one, one way or the other I'd think it would be sensible to commit on that basis rather than a 'informational' basis.

He does have them both at 25-30%. Where I disagree with him is on those probabilities.

[hoopsguy]

I'm actually just enjoying the chance to talk werewolf with you, as we have played a couple of games together in the past and I haven't seen you drawn into the conversation all that much. So I'm glad on some level to see you taking part, even if it is questioning me.

In terms of the vote, there are a lot of different ways to try and accomplish their goals. Obviously Qwikshot is using one that is a little bit different than most people usually adopt. One of my big drivers is building a circle of trust. In doing this, I think that it makes the decisions later in the game much easier for the villagers. The strategy that I adopted today was intended to help begin creating that circle (in the event that Qwik was/is Jedi) or else creating a obvious gameplan for where to go next (if Qwik was/is Sith).

Now I completely get the idea that bagging a Sith now is more important than building a circle of trust for later. And that is almost always true. But remember that in Saldana's last game (Harry Potter) the villagers got wolves on the first two days, but were not successful in building a circle of trust. And that really haunted them in the latter part of the game.

Ideally you want to accomplish both objectives - wolves early, trust early. But this is my best attempt at explaining my play to you. Both for today and across pretty much every game I play. Intelligent people can choose to agree or disagree with it; I certainly try to learn from what other people are doing in these games.


By now I've reached a tipping point, where a vote change is going to be suspicious. So I'm going to sit back, hope that when Lathum is lynched that he is revealed as a Sith, and that I will have to work hard to justify my Jedi-ness (is that a word) to the masses tomorrow.

[hoopsguy]

Desnudo, the problem is that I don't have the probabilities of anyone moved very far from 20%, in either direction, at this point.

[Desnudo]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Desnudo, the problem is that I don't have the probabilities of anyone moved very far from 20%, in either direction, at this point.

I know, I disagree with you about the probabilities you've placed on people.

Anyway, let's say Qwik is the hidden Sith. Can we agree that for this strategy to work, he must be the shielded one since you are basically begging to be scanned by the seer? So the strategy is: play the bounceback that occurs after voting for yourself and get scanned and "cleared" by the seer. Even if you are lynched, you show up as a jedi which will spread confusion.

Which brings me to my next point: Qwik will likely show as a jedi whether he is good or evil unless the Sith took a monumental risk that he would never be scanned. So the information we gather from his death will not necessarily be all that valuable and may in fact play right into their hands.

[SackAttack]

Originally Posted by Desnudo

Which brings me to my next point: Qwik will likely show as a jedi whether he is good or evil unless the Sith took a monumental risk that he would never be scanned. So the information we gather from his death will not necessarily be all that valuable and may in fact play right into their hands.

This is a good point. I'm not sure what to think about Qwik right now, as my vote for him yesterday was basically a first-day vote.

I'm not convinced he IS a Sith at this point, because I don't see the percentage in his play, but this is perhaps the best speculation I've seen yet as to what potential benefit Qwik *could* see in voting for himself on the first day.

[hoopsguy]

Desnudo, I'll agree with you that if he is a "cunning wolf" that the information we gain is very damaging. I had not even thought about it in that context. For the hardcore Star Wars guys out there, is there any sort of precedent out there for something like this? I know that the Sith are hard to root out in life, but I don't know of any such issues in death from my readings.

In terms of likelihood of scanning him, I definitely agree that he increases his chances of being scanned by taking this approach in comparison to playiing a low-profile game. I don't know if it is a cinch that he is scanned, but I completely concede the point you are making.

Even with this, the only way that this play makes sense to me (Sith as cunning coming out with the vote-self on Day 1) is if they have pretty strong starting numbers and think that they can buy multiple days of time with this strategy for the others. It would seem to make more sense for him to draw attention to himself to save someone else later in the game, rather than bringing the focus to himself at the outset.

[TazFTW]

Third attempt to get this post in.

Lathum's post does not make sense and I think Qwik is a Jedi. Eaglesfans was targeted and the last things we was saying was that we should take a look at Qwik. If Qwik is a Sith, I don't see why he would get rid of Eagles as that would draw even more suspicion to him.

VOTE LATHUM

[Poli]

1 hour 15 minutes till the deadline, correct?

[hoopsguy]

AE, I think it is 2:15 to the deadline. Saldana pushed it back since he wouldn't be at his PC.

I'm out between now and the deadline. Looks like there wasn't much to catch up on since I left work

[Poli]

Thanks hoops.

[SackAttack]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

AE, I think it is 2:15 to the deadline. Saldana pushed it back since he wouldn't be at his PC.

I'm out between now and the deadline. Looks like there wasn't much to catch up on since I left work

Longer than that, I'm pretty sure. Page 8, I think, he's got a deadline of 10:30 EST, and it's only just now 9 EST. Still another 1:30 to go, 1:30ish after your post.

That said, we're still waiting on ardent, stkelly52 and Qwikshot to vote, if my count is correct.

[stkelly52]

After reading all of this, I am still very suspicious of Barkeep, but I can't really explain why, however, no one else is going to vote for him, so a Barkeep vote would be wasted. I feel I am left to choose between Lathum and Qwik. While they are both suspicious, I just feel more confident in Qwik.
Vote Lathum

[Poli]

I didn't review the evidence on him to be honest, but enough of you seem to believe he tripped up. I doubt it myself, as he would likely have changed his vote to qwik by now if that were the case. I find the barkeep argument interesting myself.

Vote Lathum

[Barkeep49]

Ardent the argument I made against lathum or the one st is making against me? One I argee with, the other is bunk

[Poli]

[saldana]

voting closed, result upcoming, including the VITAL ANNOUNCEMENT

[Poli]

I sense a disturbance in the Force.

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by ardent enthusiast

I sense a disturbance in the Force.

Sorry, I had beans for dinner

[Poli]

I have typed my name more times than I ever want to again, and I still have 3 pages to go. Sigh.

[SackAttack]

Originally Posted by ardent enthusiast

I have typed my name more times than I ever want to again, and I still have 3 pages to go. Sigh.

If you use Firefox, you only have to do it once per page, and then just keep clicking the next button and it will find every instance of it on the page.

[Schmidty]

Originally Posted by Alan T

Sorry, I had beans for dinner

Nice.

[Poli]

Originally Posted by SackAttack

If you use Firefox, you only have to do it once per page, and then just keep clicking the next button and it will find every instance of it on the page.

I can use Firefox to type papers?

[Poli]

Dola, anyone got some really cool long term and short term goals I can have?

[Barkeep49]

Longterm I think you eventually want to see a game at every NFL stadium.

[Poli]

Triple dola, anyone have specific and realistic educational goals and specific plans to meet those goals?

By that I mean, goals I can use in my autobiography, of course.

[Poli]

Dola, there goes my triple.

[SackAttack]

Originally Posted by ardent enthusiast

I can use Firefox to type papers?

I'm sure you can find a way.

[Barkeep49]

Listen just cause Jeeber got to be mod doesn't mean you dola your way there too!

[Poli]

LOL. Sorry, I'm so tired of writing about myself. Seriously, I just started consolidating stuff. If I ever wrote a real autobiography, the first 12 years would definitely not fit in five pages, much less the one I gave it in this paper.

[saldana]

Lathum is the last Jedi to enter the galley, the same peaceful contentment on his face that Master Saldana wore.

"I emplore you all, this is a mistake that we cannot afford make. Remember our years at the Jedi Academy, was I not always the strongest of us in the Force, always seemingly ahead of all of you in progress through on out Path. I was always the paragon of the Jedi Code, do you really think I could have turned my back on all of you and become a Sith. Destroying me now will cost us the benefit of my strength and wisdom for the remainder of our mission."

No one responds to Lathum's speech, and you look at one another, solid in your decision. Nods are exchanged and as a group, you begin to close your minds in on Lathum. In moments you realize that he was not exaggerating about his strength in the Force, as he is resisting the grip that you are placing upon him. Despite the obvious strain he is under from resisting all of you, he manages to speak again.

"I have said I am not a Sith, and you have chosen not to believe me, but one thing that I am sure of, is that I will not be destroyed as easily as Superman=#54 was!"

With a violent pulsation of Force Energy, the grip you have on Lathum is broken, and in an instant his lightsaber is in his hand. With a snap-hiss a long bright pink blade extends from the handle and Lathum swings his weapon in a wide arc in front of him. Without any indication of why, Lathum springs towards TazFTW, whose Jedi reflexes allow him to activate his own lightsaber with only nanoseconds to spare before Lathum's blade severs him in two. The Jedi nearest the pair, Tanglewood also engages his own lightsaber and as a pair, he and Taz engage Lathum. The hot pink blade is quick as it darts from one attacker to the other in an effort to offset the 2 on 1 advantage, the speed of his parries again demonstrating his powers of the Force. The smell of ozone fills the room as Tangle and Taz work in tandem, finally backing Lathum into a corner.

A lull in the battle allows Lathum to speak once again, this time his voice showing his exaustion. "I thought my attack would startle my brethren into realizing that I am one of you, and although I was the aggressor, I will not harm another Jedi."

With that, Lathum feints forward at the space between Taz and Tangle. Both react in the manner Lathum expected, sidestepping and spinning away in opposite directions, their lightsabers leading their rotations, both pointed directly for the space now occupied by Lathum. Both are slightly surprised however, when each of their sabers slices into Lathum at the same time. Why did Lathum not deflect at least one of the blades. You realize that after this step forward, Lathum shut down his own lightsaber, and allowed Tangle and Taz to strike him down without any further furor.

Silence fills the hall as Taz and Tangle close down their own lightsabers. Several of you look at each other, the unspoken thoughts in your heads identical. A Sith would not have allowed himself to be destroyed as Lathum just did. A Sith would have fought until his last breath, trying to take as many Jedi with him as possible. Sith also don't carry bright pink lightsabers. It is obvious in his death, that Lathum was truly a Jedi Knight in life. You are now left to ponder the meaning of the oratory he presented when he entered the room, and the realization that your number has once again been reduced by one.

It is now night 2. night actions are due by 9:30am tomorrow, with Day 3 ending at 9:30pm on sunday.

[saldana]

Vital Announcement: The use of Taz and Tanglewood as the Jedi that fought and killed Lathum should not be construed by anyone or in anyway as an indication of their roles in this game. They were selected randomly from among the 12 people that voted for Lathum. I thought this would be a pretty shitty game with out lightsaber battles, but in order to do this, someone has to fight the lynch victim. Therefore, each night, the people that voted for the victim will be picked from at random to determine who will fight in the night resolution. Again, the fact that Taz and Tangle fought and killed Lathum means nothing except for the fact that they voted for him, and then were randomly chosen.

[Poli]

Sigh.

[Barkeep49]

So why do you think Taz and Tangle faught Lathum? Seems suspicous to me