Werewolf LXXXII - Cops and Robbers (Day 3 Deadline 4 PM EST Thursday)

[EagleFan]

Alan's vote on PB was early and only the 2nd vote on him. At that point only my vote was on PB and that vote was my customary vote so there was no heat on him at that point.

His vote on Lathum was when it looked like sadana was going to be the lynch candidate and seemed to go against his earlier post where he seemed to be defending Lathum.

Actually after looking at his record I feel a little better with the Alan vote.

[Barkeep49]

You feel better about voting for a guy with two wolf votes than the half dozen plus people who have one wolf vote? For real? If we're talking KISS, the answer is Alan = villager. I mean give the guy credit for at least a day.

[EagleFan]

His Lathum vote seems odd to me. He had saldana listed in his targets every post up to there, questioned your reasons for voting Lathum, then votes Lathum (which did not put Lathum at risk at that point). Maybe I am way off base but am willing to change if I see something else, it is quite early.

[Alan T]

Wow. I am shocked to see a sudden mini-run on me. I actually was feeling pretty good about my game play so far this game. I think I got lucky with Lathum as I had convinced myself that he was a good guy before he got lynched.. but man I stuck to my guns on PurdueBrad and convinced others to vote for him.

I'll go into more of a defense later if I really need to, I just got in and have to run the BB-BBCF sim now, but I think some people here are really too eager to jump on voting me when that makes very little sense.

Sure, I can see people making an assumption that I would vote a fellow wolf to gain trust, as I have done that before.. but you actually think I would campaign for PurdueBrad to be lynched (I feel I was the one most responsible for getting others to vote for him on day 1), and then get in a debate, pushing Lathum further on Day 2 as a wolf?

I think the reliance on Saldana's post and then twisting what he said to fit your purposes is a cop out. I played the exact same way regarding Saldana in the spawn game when I was once again good there and it is primarily due to people insulting me and calling me names due to my getting Saldana lynched in the game prior to that.. So yeah my gameplay regarding Saldana has changed, but it did not start this game.

As for last night, all I did was choose to protect myself, how that leads to Saldana saying he saw me do something, I am not entirely sure. But both Eaglefan and St.cronin were so eager to twist what Saldana had to say, it makes me think very poorly of that play. In Eaglefan's case, based on the way he has played this game, I am just assuming he is making a poor choice/play. In St.Cronin's case I right now am leaning to voting him.. After losing two wolves, the third wolf (if there are only three) needs to find a way to make sure they aren't lynched and using information from one of the semi-cleared players to try to twist into that agenda is exactly what he would do as a wolf.

So

Vote St.Cronin

[st.cronin]

Originally Posted by Barkeep49

You feel better about voting for a guy with two wolf votes than the half dozen plus people who have one wolf vote? For real? If we're talking KISS, the answer is Alan = villager. I mean give the guy credit for at least a day.

Ok, I'm convinced.

UNVOTE ALAN T
VOTE NTNDEACON

[ntndeacon]

Even though saldana is a good guy who can look at folks, his views are only exact sometimes. the Alan one is obviously not exact.

[path12]

I'm with Barkeep on this. I think no way does a wolf vote two wolves in a row. The way EagleFan was keeping on this pings me, especially when it would have been easy to put your first 'customary' vote on PB day 1 not necessarily knowing it was going to turn out as it did. I think that's where I'm going for now.

VOTE EAGLEFAN

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by path12

I'm with Barkeep on this. I think no way does a wolf vote two wolves in a row. The way EagleFan was keeping on this pings me, especially when it would have been easy to put your first 'customary' vote on PB day 1 not necessarily knowing it was going to turn out as it did. I think that's where I'm going for now.

VOTE EAGLEFAN

My wife is telling me that I am in a bad mood tonight, so maybe that is affecting me a bit.. but the unintentional comedy in this thread tonight is overwhelming...

You -DO- realize don't you that Eaglefan voted for a wolf two days in a row too just like me right?

[path12]

Originally Posted by Alan T

My wife is telling me that I am in a bad mood tonight, so maybe that is affecting me a bit.. but the unintentional comedy in this thread tonight is overwhelming...

You -DO- realize don't you that Eaglefan voted for a wolf two days in a row too just like me right?

No, actually I didn't. Going back through the thread I saw a vote total with him listed under saldana. I take it he switched? If so I'll unvote him.

[path12]

Originally Posted by jeheinz72

Vote Count as I have it

Saldana 6: Narcizo (251), Packer (277), EagleFan (288), NTNDeacon (297), claphamsa (299), path12 (302)

Lathum 5: St. Cronin (226), Barkeep (291), illinifan (292), saldana (301), Alan T (303)

EagleFan 2: Jackal (221), Lathum (238)

No vote: SnDvls

Originally Posted by EagleFan

Here's to hoping his reveal is not fake. I actually tend to believe it as he seemed to answer the questions about his PM quite well (or at least did his homework).

unvote saldana

vote Lathum

Well, OK then. Sorry about that.

UNVOTE EAGLEFAN

[EagleFan]

unvote Alan T

That got enough food for thought from several parties. I'll be on tomorrow to place my next vote.

[st.cronin]

I don't really understand why Barkeep is so willing to let votes tell the story with Alan, but isn't willing to extend the logic to ntn.

[Narcizo]

I'm going to try out adding timestamps here, because I love confusing myself working out time differences.

17:52 st.cronin - vote Jackal (219)
19:11 Jackal - vote EagleFan (221)
19:42 st.cronin - unvote Jackal, vote Lathum (226)
23:54 Lathum - vote EagleFan (238)
03:05 Narcizo - vote Saldana (251)
09:14 Packer - vote Saldana (277) 2-2-1
10:44 EagleFan - vote Saldana (288) 3-2-1 Saldana over EF
10:53 Barkeep - vote Lathum (291) 3-2-2
10:55 Illinifan - vote Lathum (292) 3-3-2 lathum and Saldana tied
11:11 NTN - vote Saldana (297) 4-3-2
11:18 Clap - vote Saldana (298) 5-3-2 Saldana leads by 2
11:27 Saldana - vote Lathum (301) 5-4-2
11:31 Path - vote Saldana (302) 6-4-2
11:36 Alan T - vote Lathum (303) 6-5-2
11:50 SnDvls - vote Saldana (306) 7-5-2

12:17 Saldana's reveal (311)

12:29 Jackal - unvote Eagle, vote Lathum (317) 7-6-1 to Saldana
12:36 SnDvls - unvote Saldana, vote Lathum (319) 7-6-1 to Lathum
12:51 EagleFan - unvote Saldana, vote Lathum (338) 8-5-1

Day one and Day Two Votes
(I'm presuming Saldana is 100% cleared as no-one has countered his reveal, when there is no reason not to)

One
PurdueBrad 7 - EagleFan, Alan, Narcizo, Packer, Clap, Path, Saldana
RendeR 4 - st.cronin, Lathum, Barkeep, PurdueBrad
Claphamsa 3 - Jackal, NTN, SnDvls
st.cronin 1 - Illini

Two
Lathum 8- st.cronin, Barkeep, Illini, Saldana, Alan, Jackal, SnDvls, EagleFan
Saldana 5 - Narcizo, Packer, NTN, Clap, Path
EagleFan 1 - Lathum

[Narcizo]

I have something of a history of over-complicating things and it looks like some other people want to do that here as well. I find it unlikely that more than two wolves would vote for any one candidate on day one (which makes me feel better about cronin and Barkeep). It is also unlikely that a wolf would vote for a wolf in the middle of a vote. I believe wolf on wolf votes tend to be at the start (hoping they get buried) or at the end (after the conclusion is made). NTN voted for Clap on day one and Saldana on day two. A (very) quick read through says that no amount of studying what NTN says is going to reveal anything. Not only are his votes on the wrong people, both days, but they were made at poor times for the village. Judging by the odd mini-run on Alan I think people are presuming that things are going too well and actually starting to want to see shadows were there are none. I'm going to keep things simple. For possibly the first time ever playing werewolf.

Vote NTNDeacon

[st.cronin]

Based on Narc's excellent analysis, I feel good about both Barkeep and Alan. After ntndeacon, I feel like Illini, path, or SnDvls are the next best bets to be wolves.

[Narcizo]

Actually, rethinking things, I guess it's possible for there to be 3 wolf votes on RendeR on day one as PB was on Jackal and only moved his vote in self-defence. So I feel slightly less good about cronin and Barkeep but still think the second day vote is stronger than the first so they deserve a fair amount of trust for that.

Saldana

Alan - led charge against PB, could easily have voted Saldana yesterday
SnDvls - critical switch from Saldana to Lathum
EagleFan - 2 correct votes and Lathum targeted him

Cronin - can't see a wolf laying an early vote on another wolf day two
Barkeep - don't see him voting Lathum on day two if he was a wolf but I'm a bit dubious about the way he doesn't seem to want to follow his own logic and vote NTN.
Claphamsa - seemed to be being pushed as a candidate by wolves on day one, good vote on day one as well
Packer - good vote for PB on day one.

Path - Possibly could have put a late vote on PB to cover himself. I don't buy Alan's theory about Render's death anymore though.

NTN - worst voting record. Doesn't contribute

[Narcizo]

Oops Missed out illini. I guess I put him in between cronin and Barkeep.

[st.cronin]

What exactly was Alan's theory about Render? I was never quite able to figure out what anybody was talking about.

[Narcizo]

That Render was killed so people wouldn't be wondering about Render vs PB being wolf/wolf. If Render-PB was wolf-wolf then Path and Saldana's late votes that, apparently, condemned PB wouldn't be as strong indicators of them being villagers. With Render shown as a villager, path and Saldana's votes look better.

[st.cronin]

Thanks. I agree that doesn't make a lot of sense.

I forgot that SnDvls had switched, which obviously makes his record stronger. Looking more closely, illinifan is probably ok, too. I like your list - ntn and path leading the charts. If there's another wolf beyond those two, I'm not sure where to look.

[Narcizo]

Originally Posted by EagleFan

I'll go along with this for now (saldana is the only CoT member at the moment for me anyway), unless I get a better feel from somewhere else when I read back through this.

vote Alan T

Originally Posted by EagleFan

For me it wasn;t based on what you said about his action when you followed him but your observation about his play and how it has deviated.

Originally Posted by EagleFan

I lean towards the Alan T vote because the analysis from saldana (someone easily in CoT at this point) pointing to a difference in Alan's normal play style towards him.

If you didn't have two votes on wolves and been targeted by Lathum I'd find this leap of logic very suspicious. If you'd actually read Alan's reasoning at the time you'd seen that he has addressed why he was leaning off of saldana and that Lathum defensiveness was making him suspicious of him.

On consideration the fact that Cronin seemed prepared to go along with this as well drops him somewhat in my trust, although the early vote for Lathum still affords him a lot of trust. Just not quite as much.

[Narcizo]

Don't know if you're around still cronin but it does seem that you're being very eager to attach yourself to other people's arguments at the moment. First EagleFan, now me. Something strikes me as being a bit off there.

[st.cronin]

Actually to be fair, EagleFan was going along with ME. I voted for Alan first.

[st.cronin]

Originally Posted by Narcizo

Don't know if you're around still cronin but it does seem that you're being very eager to attach yourself to other people's arguments at the moment. First EagleFan, now me. Something strikes me as being a bit off there.

Well, I was the first voter for Lathum, and the first voter for ntn. I didn't make the argument for ntn, true.

[Narcizo]

On the vote, yes, but not so much with the justification.

[st.cronin]

Originally Posted by Narcizo

On the vote, yes, but not so much with the justification.

Are you talking about my vote for Alan or my vote for ntn here? I agree my vote for Alan was ill-conceived, it was mainly based on thinking saldana was pointing the finger at him. On ntn, it seems like its you that's picking up on my argument, not the other way around...

At any rate, I'm not going to get bent out of shape if people start voting for me, but I'm just a regular ole customer.

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by Narcizo

Path - Possibly could have put a late vote on PB to cover himself. I don't buy Alan's theory about Render's death anymore though.

Yeah, I am not entirely sure I believe my theory about Render's death anymore either. With Lathum ending up a wolf, it seems more likely that Render's death was the attempt to set up the strategic "they must be framing me" play that kind of backfired.

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by Narcizo

Don't know if you're around still cronin but it does seem that you're being very eager to attach yourself to other people's arguments at the moment. First EagleFan, now me. Something strikes me as being a bit off there.

That was exactly my rationale in placing my vote on him last night. It feels like he is eagerly looking for anyone's arguement that he can attach himself to and create momentum in order to get the lynch going in a direction away from him. First it was loosely using comments that Saldana made to twist them and run with them, then after realizing that it was going to gain zero traction, it was to take the discussion that Barkeep and I had been having about ntndeacon and running with that.

Just playing a hunch here, but I know ntndeacon looks statistically the worst right now, but I'm going to probably not vote him today.. I might be able to be convinced to not vote Cronin, but right now his actions today have seemed the worst to me.

[Barkeep49]

Originally Posted by Narcizo

Barkeep - don't see him voting Lathum on day two if he was a wolf but I'm a bit dubious about the way he doesn't seem to want to follow his own logic and vote NTN.

What is my logic?

Chance alone, would suggest that we would have 3 players with a perfect voting record, most with 50% right, and 1 with 0 right. So what I think we most likely have with ntn is bad luck not notorious behavior. That said, his lack of participation is a good reason to vote for him, so I certainly understand that sentiment.

[Narcizo]

Originally Posted by Alan T

That was exactly my rationale in placing my vote on him last night. It feels like he is eagerly looking for anyone's arguement that he can attach himself to and create momentum in order to get the lynch going in a direction away from him. First it was loosely using comments that Saldana made to twist them and run with them, then after realizing that it was going to gain zero traction, it was to take the discussion that Barkeep and I had been having about ntndeacon and running with that.

Just playing a hunch here, but I know ntndeacon looks statistically the worst right now, but I'm going to probably not vote him today.. I might be able to be convinced to not vote Cronin, but right now his actions today have seemed the worst to me.

What I don't like about that argument though is why would cronin do that if he was a wolf. He's not really under pressure, I don't see the reason for him to look around for a candidate like that. I have difficulty reading cronin because in all but one game he was a wolf (and, possibly as a consequence, in the one game he wasn't I was convinced he was).

To my mind the best ploy for a wolf under these circumstances is to do as little as possible of anything. Turn up, go along with the consensus view and sign off again. Let the outspoken villagers find reasons for suspecting each other.

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by Narcizo

What I don't like about that argument though is why would cronin do that if he was a wolf. He's not really under pressure, I don't see the reason for him to look around for a candidate like that. I have difficulty reading cronin because in all but one game he was a wolf (and, possibly as a consequence, in the one game he wasn't I was convinced he was).

To my mind the best ploy for a wolf under these circumstances is to do as little as possible of anything. Turn up, go along with the consensus view and sign off again. Let the outspoken villagers find reasons for suspecting each other.

Well, that points us really back to the group I originally pointed out yesterday after results:

Originally Posted by Alan T

That leaves us Packerfanatic, ntndeacon and path from that group that I'm mostly focusing on and want to go back and review posts.

All three seem to fit most of the criteria that you are listing as well. Just not sure if I have convinced myself of that yet. Maybe I am doing the exact same thing that I am criticizing Cronin and Eaglefan for by jumping on the first thing that yells boo with my vote here. Maybe I should reconsider it some, but I don't think that Cronin has a overly stellar record so far this game compared to others. I'll have to go back and look closer at when he placed his vote on day 1 and 2 and see what the circumstances behind it at the time where as far as the overall picture goes.

[PackerFanatic]

*never talks a lot*

*usually gets in trouble for that*

I just know I could never do as good of analysis as most of the talkers here.

[Alan T]

I don't think that placing an early vote on a wolf even on day 2 is a sign that someone is or isn't a wolf, but looking at the conversation and how Cronin didn't just throw a vote on Lathum, but made a case for him I guess makes me feel a little better about him. I'll back off on that for now and just assume he made a poor choice last night by looking for anything to jump on quickly when it didn't make sense to vote for me.

I'll go back to looking at Packerfanatic, Path and ntndeacon, to see which seems most suspicious to me. Right now I am thinking I'll vote either Packer or Path, because I don't like players whose names start with a P.


Unvote St.Cronin

[Alan T]

Looking through day 1, I like Packerfanatic's vote a whole ton better than Path's vote. I've already explained why when Path placed his vote, even though it was not necessarily a done deal, it might as well have been (as long as Render had just shown up, which he actually never did).. thus Path being west coast possibly had been stuck with a very poor situation when he woke up that morning of having to place a vote that either condemns another wolf, or possibly implicate himself later.

On day 2, Packer voted before Lathum was really part of the voting consideration and it was between Eaglefan and Saldana at that time (whom I figure right now are both villager), and his vote was moreso following Narcizo's logic onto Saldana, which could be viewed as a wolf move to cling on a villager's logic to lynch a non-wolf. However Path's vote is even worse looking to me, in that at the point he voted it could have been tied Lathum - Saldana with me still having my vote outstanding and having said I was at that point thinking of voting Saldana. Instead Path voted saldana, made it a two vote lead, which pretty much forced me to vote Lathum to keep things close.

Neither of the two have a great voting record, but how they voted, and when and why considered, I think Path looks worse right now.

Vote Path

[illinifan999]

I really have no idea, like PF said, I'm nowhere near on the same level of analysis as some of you guys but I think that Narcizo's analysis has been excellent so far so I'm more inclined to follow with him.

vote ntndeacon

[saldana]

let me just establish something, even though it is not really relevant now...my statements about alan's play were intended as an explanation of why I chose to follow him, and not as an indictment of his play in this game....alan and I go back a long way in these games and he is my nemesis...one of us is always trying to get the other killed, so the fact that he wasnt made me wonder.

that said, i think the seizing of that rationale as a reason to vote for him was bizzare...nothing i said indicated my intentions in the least bit, and I was totally confused by the run that came after my post, which has put the people involved in it at the top of the list for tonight.

at this point, i am gonna go with his thoughts (this deadline isnt really working for me this week...work has sucked and I havent had a chance to look at things as closely as I would like)

vote path

[ntndeacon]

Normally Iwould agree with Narcizo's analysis. And it is clearly right that I haven't been very vocal, even for me this game. And to be honest Idon't know if I am going to be more vocal either anytime soon. but let me say that I am not a wolf. (not that most believe that) My vote today is a vote of self preservation.

Vote path

[claphamsa]

vote ntndeacon

seems like the best choice, and at this stage its ok if we make a mistake or 2~!

[PackerFanatic]

VOTE PATH12

It looks like this is going to be the way it goes today.

[path12]

Originally Posted by st.cronin

Thanks. I agree that doesn't make a lot of sense.

I forgot that SnDvls had switched, which obviously makes his record stronger. Looking more closely, illinifan is probably ok, too. I like your list - ntn and path leading the charts. If there's another wolf beyond those two, I'm not sure where to look.

I still don't get how breaking the tie with PB the first day has me leading the charts along with ntn. But sometimes weird theories carry the day in WW.

That said, I have no great read on the situation but am fine with a vote for ntn based both on village help and the analysis of Narcizo which is always appreciated.

VOTE NTNDEACON

[path12]

Originally Posted by Alan T

Right now I am thinking I'll vote either Packer or Path, because I don't like players whose names start with a P.

At least it's not my deodorant.

[Narcizo]

Path 5 - SnDvls (382), Alan (434), Saldana (436), NTN (437), Packer (439)
NTN 4 - cronin (405), Narcizo (416), illini (435), clap (438)
st cronin - Barkeep (395)

Left: EagleFan, Path

[path12]

Originally Posted by saldana

(this deadline isnt really working for me this week...work has sucked and I havent had a chance to look at things as closely as I would like)

I don't like the vote, but +a whole bunch on this.

[Narcizo]

Gah!

Path 5 - SnDvls (382), Alan (434), Saldana (436), NTN (437), Packer (439)
st cronin - Barkeep (395)
NTN 5 - Cronin (405), Narcizo (416), illini (435), clap (438), Path (440)

Left: EagleFan

[Alan T]

Not really a comment to draw suspicion at all, because that is not my intent here. I think it is fascinating watching the votes increment in your vote total. It entirely is like a see-saw the past 6 votes with 6 straight posts having votes in different directions.

If this was any different scenerio, I would be trying to pull out all kinds of conspiracy theories about this behavior.

[path12]

Nice run, going to be worth some analysis after the fact if it holds.

I wish I could hang around to argue it, but I've got an early conference call. I've got a role but am not going to reveal it at this point because I won't be around to discuss. Feel free to scan me tonight if you don't believe me.

[Alan T]

Sorry, make that 7 straight posts with votes alternating.

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by path12

Nice run, going to be worth some analysis after the fact if it holds.

I wish I could hang around to argue it, but I've got an early conference call. I've got a role but am not going to reveal it at this point because I won't be around to discuss. Feel free to scan me tonight if you don't believe me.

I wish you would discuss it some before you leave. I need to know at least enough that it isn't a faked claim.. my vote is easily movable between you, Packer and ntn.. but not with what you said in that post alone.

[Narcizo]

I'm wondering about the pros and cons of a mass reveal/seer reveal. I think there's a decent chance that a combination of a mass reveal and trust lists could nail this thing down (depending on whether the seer has scanned non-roled villagers who are still alive). Path's post pushes me that way a bit.

Mass Reveal
+ potentially taking us to something like 5 cleared (+ any living non-roled villager the psychic may have looked at), 7 uncleared of which 1-2 are wolves.
- Cops (presumably protecting the seer) are sitting ducks for night kills. Seer follows thereafter. That does give the seer 2 more scans though, unless the wolves target the seer straight away. (see below)

Seer Reveal
+ provides us with anything between 1-3 cleared names. Let's cops know who they should protect.
- Wolf/ves can target seer straight away. Even if both cops are protecting the seer my interpretation of the rules is that the seer can be knocked out of the game for a couple of days even if he isn't killed.

But that's not going to work if Path isn't here.

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by Narcizo

I'm wondering about the pros and cons of a mass reveal/seer reveal. I think there's a decent chance that a combination of a mass reveal and trust lists could nail this thing down (depending on whether the seer has scanned non-roled villagers who are still alive). Path's post pushes me that way a bit.

Mass Reveal
+ potentially taking us to something like 5 cleared (+ any living non-roled villager the psychic may have looked at), 7 uncleared of which 1-2 are wolves.
- Cops (presumably protecting the seer) are sitting ducks for night kills. Seer follows thereafter. That does give the seer 2 more scans though, unless the wolves target the seer straight away. (see below)

Seer Reveal
+ provides us with anything between 1-3 cleared names. Let's cops know who they should protect.
- Wolf/ves can target seer straight away. Even if both cops are protecting the seer my interpretation of the rules is that the seer can be knocked out of the game for a couple of days even if he isn't killed.

But that's not going to work if Path isn't here.

I agree with this, especially since deadline is pushed back to 4pm ET today correct? That is still right isn't it? If so, that gives 5-6 hours in the main part of the business day that most people should have a chance to get in on. We should have done this last night though.

My issue here is Path's post could be entirely BS, or it might now. We already saw Claphamsa get out of a lynch on day 1 with close to the same quote, and don't know the validity of that either. We know Saldana has a role.. so that would be 3 of the roled good guys right there. We only have what 4 roled players, so only really one other to come out correct?