Vanilla Flavored Werewolf-Villagers Win

[saldana]

interesting...we did learn one thing...the tie mechanic is either random or escalates (first tie, no one dies...second tie, random person dies)...i would wonder if a third tie kills both people...i really think we need to NOT find that out.

[path12]

Originally Posted by EagleFan

unvote brit

vote DT

Holy shit. Are you kidding me?

[path12]

Originally Posted by mauchow

Ok gonna watch my wife hold baby now.

Congrats by the way.

[path12]

Originally Posted by saldana

interesting...we did learn one thing...the tie mechanic is either random or escalates (first tie, no one dies...second tie, random person dies)...i would wonder if a third tie kills both people...i really think we need to NOT find that out.

I took it as the most and least are thrown out (so DT and Brit with 3 and everyone with 0) and then it was between fontisian and Chief. Not sure if that was a coin flip or not.

But yeah, rather not find out by having another tie.

[britrock88]

Wow. I very nearly got railroaded.

[britrock88]

For the record, I tend to be helpful with vote counts and things like that and not lead the charge in wolf-nabbing as a general principle. Not only am I relatively new to this part of the board, I also have a bad gut feel for this kind of thing. Sorry to disappoint you all, but I can begin to speculate about things if you'd like.

[britrock88]

(Underlying all of this, can't a guy enjoy happy hour?!?)

[britrock88]

(And miss deadline accidentally?)

[Autumn]

Hey, you have your happy hour, and we'll have ours.

[britrock88]

[britrock88]

Back after I'm off the phone to try to figure out what happened today.

[britrock88]

Day 1

time	post	voter	votee	#
04:21	39	JAG	saldana	1
09:16	43	brit	Autumn	1
09:46	48	Autumn	DT	1
10:29	50	path12	mauchow	1
11:23	51	EF	JAG	1
11:59	53	CR	saldana	2
14:52	60	mauchow	Autumn	2
17:04	64	font	saldana	3
17:18	66	DT	Autumn	3
17:21	67	JAG	x sal	2
			DT	2
17:45	73	Danny	font	1
17:48	77	RA	Autumn	4
18:49	106	Danny	x font	0
			DT	3
18:53	110	font	x sal	1
			DT	4

[/quote]

Day 2

time	post	voter	votee	#
08:29	184	mauchow	Autumn	1
09:15	188	path12	Autumn	2
10:35	193	EF	mauchow	1
11:51	197	Danny	DT	1
14:24	214	Autumn	DT	2
14:26	215	Danny	xDT	1
			Autumn	3
14:31	217	DT	Autumn	4
14:25	220	Danny	xAutumn 3
			font	1
16:29	231	CR	font	2
16:35	232	font	DT	2
16:51	233	font	xDT	1
17:01	234	RA	CR	1
17:06	236	font	saldana	1
17:18	238	DT	xAutumn	2
17:47	243	mauchow	xAutumn	1
18:02	245	path12	xAutumn	0
			font	3
19:02	265	Danny	xfont	2
			brit	1
19:20	280	saldana	DT	2
19:20	281	Danny	xbrit	0
			saldana	2
19:30	290	font	xsal	1
			mauchow	2
19:32	291	Danny	xsal	0
			DT	3
19:34	294	DT	mauchow	3
19:44	307	EF	xmau	2
			path	1
19:45	311	EF	xpath	0
			brit	1
19:50	315	DT	xmau	1
			brit	2
19:50	316	Danny	xDT	2
			brit	3
19:52	317	font	xmau	0
			brit	4
20:00	333	EF	xbrit	3
			DT	3

[britrock88]

Not sure whether to give the people who shifted to me a free pass for going at a guy who wasn't around... or to support Autumn's notion that there's something fishy among those moving off DT. That said, a DT scan result might help us out... though I'm not sure of the worth of having the seer reveal for a clean scan.

[Zinto]

Everyone wakes up to a shriek in the middle of the night. It seems that there was an altercation and it came from the area where Raiders Army was sleeping. You find that he had tried to crawl out of his sleeping bag but was unsuccessful before someone had stabbed him.

Raiders Army was a vanilla villager.

Day Three Begins.

[EagleFan]

Interesting choice.

[DaddyTorgo]

10 minutes before my flight. That's one of those "off the beaten path" type of wolf shots. Who was I a wolf with recently who advocated that sort of thing...trying to remember (legitimately).

Not sure where I want to go today...if people (autumn and EF) would stop voting me (surely I've been scanned and cleared by now) then maybe we could stop going down that path again and again, and could accomplish actually looking at some other people?

Off to the airport now.

[Raiders Army]

Interestingly enough I recently learned that Ben and Jerry's has a graveyard with headstones for all of their discontinued flavors. Good luck village!

[saldana]

ok, so we have 2 nights of some shenanigans at lynch time and one dead random villager..barring a seer scan today, i am going to be on one of the shenanigan performers.

[Autumn]

Originally Posted by Raiders Army

Interestingly enough I recently learned that Ben and Jerry's has a graveyard with headstones for all of their discontinued flavors. Good luck village!

we'll bury you among them, RA!

[Autumn]

I am going to pray to the WErewolf gods that the seer has scanned DT by now, and would reveal if he was a wolf. If he's not a wolf then it may be that we're just dealing with goofy villagers enjoying themselves at lynch time. It happens. It may be we have a cultist trying to draw attention and be a pain, but I'm going to assume DT is clear until we hear otherwise. I think too many games get sidetracked by chasing around villagers for days and days who were just trying to make things interesting.

That said, I don't have any idea yet which direction I'll go. Got to bring the kids to school and run errands and then I'll be back.

[mauchow]

I'm not sure how to read into the bitrock swing at the end there. I was out for the time when I was leading and when the bitrock run came. Thats some wild action down the stretch. Unfortunately I was catching up on all that three minutes before the deadline so I never got a chance to really think logically on what I could do. In hindsight I could have made my vote prior to ef but I just didn't want another late vote to be added on to create the tie. I was refreshing as fast as my phone would allow on the spotty hospital wireless.

We still need info on dt/autumn imo. If there hasn't been a wolf scanned by the seer hopefully the ones they've been scanning aren't already dead. We will desperately need the cot. Obviously we've got a positive in this in that we've lost no roles yet.

[EagleFan]

vote mau

[mauchow]

High five ef

[DaddyTorgo]

Originally Posted by mauchow

I'm not sure how to read into the bitrock swing at the end there. I was out for the time when I was leading and when the bitrock run came. Thats some wild action down the stretch. Unfortunately I was catching up on all that three minutes before the deadline so I never got a chance to really think logically on what I could do. In hindsight I could have made my vote prior to ef but I just didn't want another late vote to be added on to create the tie. I was refreshing as fast as my phone would allow on the spotty hospital wireless.

We still need info on dt/autumn imo. If there hasn't been a wolf scanned by the seer hopefully the ones they've been scanning aren't already dead. We will desperately need the cot. Obviously we've got a positive in this in that we've lost no roles yet.

I presume at least myself and maybe autumn have been scanned by now.

Agreed with Autumn that we're barking up the wrong tree here though - at least as far as the two of us are concerned. Makes sense to look at shenanigan-causers though.

-font is dead and she was causing shenanigans.
-i know i'm good, so I know that danny's move off of me to britrock last night wasn't about a wolf saving a wolf, so I feel better about him at least being no worse than the cultist, because otherwise he has no reason to cause chaos.
-I've been in a similar place as EF in the past, in terms of trying to create chaos to see how people act and move their votes, so I don't harbor any ill-will towards him. Thinking he gets a pass for now, although he could certainly be a chaos-causing cultist (but he knows who the wolves are, so he'd have no incentive to save me, so I don't think this is the case).
-I feel okay about Autumn - again...his dogged suspiscion of me feels villagerish, and he may have been a scan target (as I have been I hope), so I think maybe he gets a pass for now.

I'd like to look elsewhere - knowing I'm a villager I have to believe that maybe we've been villager/villager the past couple days and instead of causing the chaos the wolves have put their votes in early and kept them locked on opposite candidates.

I'm traveling, but if somebody else wants to look at an analysis of people who have voted earlier in the day, haven't moved their votes, and have not voted together, I think that might be a really interesting filter to put on things...

[saldana]

Originally Posted by EagleFan

vote mau

reason?

[Autumn]

I am going to just go with gut for now, and someone who I think roughly meets what Chief is talking about, in terms of someone who has stayed out of the way and let us punch ourselves.

vote path12

[britrock88]

Originally Posted by DaddyTorgo

-I've been in a similar place as EF in the past, in terms of trying to create chaos to see how people act and move their votes, so I don't harbor any ill-will towards him. Thinking he gets a pass for now, although he could certainly be a chaos-causing cultist (but he knows who the wolves are, so he'd have no incentive to save me, so I don't think this is the case).

I thought the cultist didn't know who the wolves are?

[britrock88]

I remember (due to the trauma) Danny explaining his move to me yesterday as going for a UTR type. Autumn replied that a last-minute move such as that one is more likely to nab a roled villager than a wolf. Then the wolves NKed RA, one of the most UTR players in this game. I wonder what's at play there...

[britrock88]

EF, when you come back around -- you said you were trying to bait people when you moved to me. DT moved his vote in self-defense; Danny moved back to me, having indicated suspicion in me earlier; and font turned out good. What do you make of your play -- any reads on your compats?

[path12]

Originally Posted by Autumn

I am going to just go with gut for now, and someone who I think roughly meets what Chief is talking about, in terms of someone who has stayed out of the way and let us punch ourselves.

vote path12

Out of the way? Like when I went after fontisian and was completely wrong?

[path12]

Originally Posted by britrock88

I remember (due to the trauma) Danny explaining his move to me yesterday as going for a UTR type. Autumn replied that a last-minute move such as that one is more likely to nab a roled villager than a wolf. Then the wolves NKed RA, one of the most UTR players in this game. I wonder what's at play there...

I think the wolves are thinking the roled villagers are the quieter ones and are killing accordingly.

[path12]

I'd be shocked if EF wasn't scanned last night after that last minute switch to a tie so I'm likely to change this vote later but for now that was just way too weird a play not to:

VOTE EAGLEFAN

[britrock88]

Originally Posted by path12

I'd be shocked if EF wasn't scanned last night after that last minute switch to a tie so I'm likely to change this vote later but for now that was just way too weird a play not to:

VOTE EAGLEFAN

It'd be a touch disappointing not to have scans on Autumn and DT, given how prominent they've been as candidates in the first 2 days. But I understand that a curious seer might go for EF instead.

[britrock88]

Seems cultist-ish to me, though. And being that the cultist helps our numbers, I don't feel a strong sense of urgency to off someone I *suspect* may be the cultist.

[britrock88]

1 mauchow - EagleFan(422)
1 path12 - Autumn(426)
1 EagleFan - path12(432)

[Danny]

Not really enough time here to do real analysis. RA was a clear kill going for the seer. I do find it interesting that of the under the radar players they chose to go with Raiders. I would have been much more likely to go Chief or Britrock in the case, though I can buy not killing brit since he had some heat yesterday.

vote chief

[mauchow]

I have been getting scanned early lately in these games and I would not be surprised if I was already this game. End result of these scans? No wolves. My play as a villager must scream wolf... I don't think it does but ef and some others continue to think I have a good chance to be one. I do understand that someone has to be a lynch target especially when we have no real evidence pointing to anyone.

I'm looking at danny as someone I may vote for but he's the only one thats been saying that I don't smell wolfy so at this point I'm as lost as can be for who to vote for. I wish I was the seer that's for damn sure.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

Okay, if we look at not breaking a tie when you had an opportunity as a bad thing, then, based on posting, I would look at RA, font, path12 and Danny.

RA and font could have switched out their votes and gotten a lynch. path could have switched his vote onto a candidate and gotten a lynch.

I only question Danny because of the whole "just didn't get back in time" thing, but I don't put much weight in that, because I'm certain Danny would lie about real life stuff.

Then the last thing that occurred to me is that Autumn and DT could both be wolves. They figured one of them was going to be lynched no matter what, so why do anything to tip their hands with some move to "save" one or the other? Sure, it's an unlikely coincidence, but not unheard of, and then they got lucky that the lynch was a no-lynch result.

font's deadline move looks shakiest to me.

I put this up early on Day Two. Obviously, RA and font are both now gone and good. So now I am looking at Danny and path12 through the actions yesterday at lynch, and also looking at new candidates based on yesterday's shenanigans.

Danny moved his vote around a lot in the last hour, and ended up on brit. His last vote was made ten minutes before deadline and I believe his was the vote that made brit the lynch candidate. fontisian piled on a few minutes later, setting up EF's unfortunate last minute vote to tie.

path12 made his vote two hours before deadline and didn't participate in the vote switching at the end, which is good, but his vote was on a known villager (fontisian). Mine was on her as well, though, so it is hard for me to fault him.

So path looks guiltier on Day One because he could have broken the tie and chose not to. Danny had RL stuff which kept him away at deadline, so he gets a pass.

On Day Two, Danny looks a bit more suspicious with all his vote switching in the last hour, while path12 stayed out of it. EF moved his vote as much as Danny in that last hour and, of course, made that fateful last vote.

So this is a toughie. Right now, I am leaning path12, because he chose not to break the tie on Day One and voted off a known villager on Day Two.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by Danny

Not really enough time here to do real analysis. RA was a clear kill going for the seer. I do find it interesting that of the under the radar players they chose to go with Raiders. I would have been much more likely to go Chief or Britrock in the case, though I can buy not killing brit since he had some heat yesterday.

vote chief

I think they must have been seer hunting. I can't see any other explanation for going for UTR Raiders Army. If you're just choosing an UTR player without any particular guidance, I would guess (like you, Danny) that I would be the target, since I have been UTR before and yet still dangerous to wolves.

So I figured they must have seen something in RA's posts that would suggest he was the seer. I looked back and didn't see much that stood out. Probably the most notable things he did was confirm that fontisian is a woman and then he voted me yesterday because he thought I was on at deadline on Day One and didn't change my vote.

[Danny]

I will say that I am fairly lost of who to go for. I am thinking that Autumn and DT are not wolves though.

[Chief Rum]

Let's say you're right, Danny, and Autumn and DT are indeed both villagers. I kinda feel that way, too, although admittedly it's mostly on gut (FWIW).

If you (hypothetical "you") are a wolf and you can break a tie between two villagers, why would you? Guaranteed, a villager dies and the focus is on you, because you made the decision. So instead you beg off, don't make a vote, because even if that is abit odd, it's less odd than actually making a decision which kills a villager.

And that's exactly what path12 did, chose not to break the tie on Day One. A villager breaks that tie, IMO, because he doesn't know if a wolf is on the block and doesn't know what the tie mechanism is. But a wolf has every reason to not break that tie, if we make the guess that Autumn/DT are villagers.

Day Two also ended up in a tie, but that is harder to read because we had a player (EF) actually create the tie at the last second, and I don't have a read on brit's allegiance at all.

I am completely open to all theroies, but right now, I think path12 is a good way to go.

VOTE PATH12

[Zinto]

Official Vote Count:
1 Mau-EF(422)
2 Path-Autumn(426), CR(441)
1 EF-Path(432)
1 Chief-Danny(436)

[path12]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

And that's exactly what path12 did, chose not to break the tie on Day One. A villager breaks that tie, IMO, because he doesn't know if a wolf is on the block and doesn't know what the tie mechanism is. But a wolf has every reason to not break that tie, if we make the guess that Autumn/DT are villagers.

Kind of why I was hoping to see some kind of resolution on Autumn's and DT's allegiance with that day 2 vote though it totally changed around between the time I left last afternoon and the deadline.

Also I'm not totally certain that we can assume they've been scanned. Putting myself in the seer's place for a minute I can make a case for scanning font night 1 and EF last night.

That said, I understand the thinking. I regret not breaking the tie day 1 and generally have been so rusty with my WW analysis that I'm not playing a very good game so far. I'm hoping to get better as we go along, if I'm around.

[mauchow]

vote danny

Its silly to bring up yet another candidate but I'm gonna go here for now despite him believing that I'm not a wolf. I'm getting small vibes only from him and occasionally autumn. For autumn i initially get the feeling then i reread things and then i feel better about him. His only play on day one is to essentially do nothing if he is a wolf. A fake reveal on day one in a small game would only last about a day in effectiveness.

Everyone else is a bit unreadable for me right now.

[EagleFan]

I still have the same read on mau and backwards engineering the sal analysis that I posted with a confirmed good font it could lead into a scenario where mau and sal are primary candidates.

Not much time at the moment so I'll try to get across what I can.


brit - still no read on
sal - could easily seem him as a wolf
mau - could have been trying to save sal on day one
DT - let's hope scanned, but if not he could also fall into the trying to save sal category, even more so since his vote was said to be self defense (if I remember correctly) and yet the best self defense vote at that moment would have been for sal
Autumn - assumed scanned
CR - if sal is bad I feel certain CR is good; if sal is good then unsure
path - no read
Danny - starting to feel off with his moves and some of his comments, he seems to be trying to play the "I would have done it this way if I was a wolf" card a bit too much


For some day two analysis we have Danny, path and CR all going after font. Again, I see absolutely no way that a wolf would make that play on day one with just 2 wolves in the game so why the push for a font vote.

[Autumn]

Other people might have played it different than me, but I think it's a sure thing a wolf fake reveals if they're about to get lynched in a game this size. If it's only one day, one day is a lot, and if it gets a role to reveal, that's huge in a small game. So that makes me feel better about DT.

[saldana]

I kind of want to vote for eagle fan...his whole approach today seems like a wolf to me, from his drive by vote to his oversized accusation post.

CR, I like your analysis on Path and will likely end up voting one of those two

[DaddyTorgo]

I like CR's analysis of Path, and I think that's where I'm leaning - although since nobody put together that analysis that I was talking about in my post from the airport this morning I might go back and look at that and see how that squares with path and/or mau, who are two that are high on my list of thoughts just in terms of ""gut" right now.

I just got in from my trip and I'm going to get in an hour's worth of workout (assuming the bike here at my apt. complex is free) before I come back and lay down a vote though. The sweating helps with all sorts of thinking, maybe it'll help us nab a wolf.

[path12]

Originally Posted by saldana

I kind of want to vote for eagle fan...his whole approach today seems like a wolf to me, from his drive by vote to his oversized accusation post.

CR, I like your analysis on Path and will likely end up voting one of those two

I'll hold my vote on EF for now but obviously will switch it to whatever is the better self-preservation option as the day goes on.

I'm not going to argue the votes against me, as I mentioned I get the reasoning. But I am not a wolf.

[britrock88]

Hrm, 5 candidates, 4 hours from lynch.