WW XCII Athens -- Destroyed by Wolves!

[Abe Sargent]

dubb is here

[Lathum]

hi dubb!!

[Lathum]

dola-

the encyclopedia brown joke was all me, didn't want anyone to think it is dubb

[Abe Sargent]

Dubb is still here after like 5 minutes

[Abe Sargent]

Wasn't he assigned to Sparta?

[Lathum]

he's gone now. I know alot of times I navigate to a page, then tab over to check email or something.

I'm sure it was an honest mistake.

[Passacaglia]

His last action was at 7:29, and the next time I looked, his last action changed to vieiwing the Athens thread. Since he wasn't actively clicking through the thread, I'm going to guess it was a simple mistake.

[Abe Sargent]

HAHA dubb we FOUND YOU OUT and stuff

[Abe Sargent]

My way of fixing this is to have this page up on atab at all times and then I just need to hit refresh instead of going around and accidentally going to other threads. Again.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by Abe Sargent

My way of fixing this is to have this page up on atab at all times and then I just need to hit refresh instead of going around and accidentally going to other threads. Again.

I usualy have this page up but navigate to OT to answer questions about jerseys and stuff

[Abe Sargent]

Man who asked quesitons about jerseys on a sports board?

[hoopsguy]

Originally Posted by Encyclopedia Brown

VOTE THENORM

Don't like being compared to Lathum, eh? No one can blame you

[Lathum]

So am I the only one who thinks we need to figure out the connection, if there is one, between Norm and Abe?

[Lathum]

so EF was voted out of Hades, I guess people didn't buy the Schmidty is a wolf theory.

Or maybe he was the night kill.

[hoopsguy]

Originally Posted by Lathum

So am I the only one who thinks we need to figure out the connection, if there is one, between Norm and Abe?

At this point I think that we probably get at least one wolf out of that pairing. But I would say that for any group of Abe, MartinD, and TheNorm.

Are you attacking it from the idea that one is a wolf and one is not? If they are both wolves, or both villagers, then it really does not make a difference which way we "figure out the connection", as far as I can tell.

Well, minor curiosity if they are both wolves in trying to figure out roles. But at this point I would settle for a wolf lynch of any sort.

[TheNorm]

Originally Posted by Lathum

dola- Norm, you are getting pretty agitated and playing the new card when really it's already day 3.

I just wonder if that's a wolf defense or your playing style?

I mentioned earlier it isn't just your vote today, it's the overall sum of the game. Whether he meant to or not, Abe put extra heat on you by bringing you up day 1.

Agitated? Hardly, that's why I put the there. Sorry if you interpreted it as such...and not new to this game, but new to the board and all the new personalities. If I can I usually wait to vote because I like reading all the posts for a clue that could tip me one way or the other...or to be swayed as well. If I think something jumps out at me that hasn't been covered yet, I'll mention it.

Now if that makes me guilty in your eyes, go right ahead. I'm innocent though, and in the worst case scenario a vote for me here plus the night action has us in Hades by the morning.

[Lathum]

well there are a few things I am considering.

I think we probably only have 2 wolves since we know we had the evil historian and probably have the evil marathoner. That means our Hoplite is likely good since having the wolf hoplite, wolf marathoner and evil historian seems pretty out of whack.

here are our remaining players

Abe Sargent- Phoenix
Lathum- Villager- Ephor
hoopsguy
MartinD
TheNorm
PurdueBrad- Marathoner- probably good

So logicaly, 2 of MartinD, TheNorm and Hoops have a role, the Marathoner and the hoplite. One is roleless.

Whoever of the 3 is the marathoner is probably evil and the hoplite is probably good. That means, as long as Schmidty isn't a wolf, that one of the other 2 is a wolf.

Now I am not advocating this, but it seems to me if the hoplite reveals, we have a 66% chance of nabbing a wolf.

Thoughts?

[hoopsguy]

Lathum, I was asking the same question earlier when I asked about "cards on the table" a couple of hours ago.

So is today the day that we leave our cards on the table? It is if you believe that there are two wolves remaining in the city. If you think there is only one then we can play this a little bit more slowly.

If we are playing against two wolves then we probably should start talking reveals. If we feel like we are playing against one wolf then maybe this could wait another day. But not any longer than that.

[Lathum]

yeah, I knew what you meant..

I'd like to get others opinions even though I have nothing to reveal.

[Lathum]

Abe, I see you lurking, what do you think?

[Lathum]

Day 1 votes

Abe Sargent -- 2 EagleFan (152) TheNorm (155)
USFLTecmo -- 2 Chief Rum (121) MartinD (137)
EagleFan -- 4 Abe Sargent (126) hoopsguy (133) USFLTecmo (138) Lathum (139)

Day 2 Votes

Abe Sargent -- 2 MartinD (277) USFLTecmo (295)
hoopsguy -- 1 Chief Rum (278)
USFLTecmo -- 5 Abe Sargent (319) PurdueBrad (333) Lathum (354) TheNorm (359) Hoops (360)

Looking at non cleared players vote

hoops- voted villagers both days
Martin- Voted 1 wolf and 1 unknown
Abe- voted villagers both days
Norm- voted 1 wolf and 1 unknown

Of this group Hoops and Abe both voted the same person both days, I find it very unlikely 2 wolves do this.

TheNorm and Martin have gone different ways each day, very likely a wolf play.

I think one of them is the way to go today

[Lathum]

btw I noticed Saldana is in Hades

[Lathum]

I wanna click in Sparta's thread just so I have something new to read.

[Lathum]

We're gonna be behind the Hades thread soon.

[Lathum]

Pass, who do you think are the wolves?

[TheNorm]

I feel like Inigo Montoya at this stage of the game right now...'I swear on the soul of my father Domingo Montoya, you will reach the top alive.'

Did that work?

Like I already said, if you think it's me then there's really not much else to say other than I'm just a villager. Whether any of you believe me is totally your call, and since I'm always skeptical of any proclamation made in this game I expect the same.

I can't check in much tomorrow, but I should be around sporadically throughout the day and definitely at deadline. Good night for now.

[Lathum]

So Norm is claiming villager.

That means Hoops and MartinD couldn't be villagers. One has to be marathon runner and one has to be hoplite.

[Lathum]

dola- also going on my theory that our hoplite is good and runner bad, that means Norm or Abe HAS to be bad unless Schmidty was.

Since Abe is the phoenix I am leaning more towards Norm being bad.

[Lathum]

Vote TheNorm

[Abe Sargent]

Originally Posted by Lathum

Abe, I see you lurking, what do you think?

Sorry, I came in and out. I'm back now! I agree about cards on the table time, but I don; thave any left.

[Lathum]

Well now that Norm revealed as a villager as long as it isn't countered we can assume Hoops or Martin is a wolf.

My guess is Martin, not sure Hoops would call out PB the way he did if he was the bad marathoner

[Lathum]

dola- combine that with the way Martin and Norm have kept clear of each other I think it very possible they are the wolves

[Lathum]

I realize I may be guilty of throwing stuff against a wall to see what sticks, but really I have just been thinking out loud alot.

[MartinD]

Originally Posted by Lathum

I realize I may be guilty of throwing stuff against a wall to see what sticks, but really I have just been thinking out loud alot.

I don't have a problem with that - is useful for me to see how other people think in this game.

My current thinking:

First up, we don't know how many wolves we have. We know that there aren't 3 wolves in Athens, because the city is still standing (6 players, 3 wolves means the city has been won by the wolves, and would be destroyed). It's possible (although very unlikely, IMHO) that there are no wolves remaining in Athens - they may have sent their guys to Hades with their first two night kills to try to win the game with Sparta and Hades, and leave us to try to find the non-existent wolf - but that doesn't seem like a particularly good strategy to me. This suggests that we have either one or two wolves - is likely that we started with two, and I think that there's a pretty good chance that Schmitdy is a wolf (although that's far from certain), and a much smaller chance that Chief Rum was a wolf. I'd say that it was more likely that there's one wolf still in Athens, but it wouldn't come as a surprise if there were two.

PurdueBrad - We know that he's a marathoner, and I agree with the reasoning that hoopsguy posted earlier - while it's not absolutely certain that he's on the side of good, it looks extremely unlikely that he's a wolf.

Lathum - I'm definitely inclined to believe that he's the Ephor for Athens (particularly as I voted for him, and my vote was one of the three 'free' votes). It doesn't necessarily follow that he isn't a wolf, or that he doesn't have another role - my understanding of the rules is that the one-off 'duke' ability would be added to whatever role the winner of the vote already had (as you can't exactly allocate a role to someone at the start of the game, then take that role away from them at the end of Day 1...) My impression of his behaviour so far is that he's good - of course, this could just be a very smooth smokescreen from a wolf, but I'm inclined to believe that he's a villager.

Abe Sargent - There are enough things here that sit wrong with me to raise suspicion - putting forward TheNorm for Ephor before we had decided to the '3/3/3' vote, an oversight on the rules for his role (easily done, but a little surprising to me). The claimed 'Phoenix' role is definitely plausible, particularly as no other player has come out to contest this (although there's no way of proving this - as far as I'm aware, only EagleFan from the guys who have been sent to Hades from Athens has been killed off in the netherworld, and he's done for the game) - even if this is a true claim, the random allocation of the Phoenix roles means that this doesn't really provide any information on wolf/villager status. I'm not going to translate some reasonably mild suspicions into 'Abe must be a wolf', but there's enough suspicion there to make me wary (hence my vote yesterday).

hoopsguy - Don't see anything that raises suspicion in what he's posted so far - seems to be following the 'helpful villager' profile right now. Of course, this could be a wolf hiding in plain sight, but I'm more inclined to believe that he's one of the good guys at the moment.

TheNorm - don't have a lot to go on in the way of posts, and this is his first game on this board, so don't have any past experience to work with either (not that this means all that much, given that I've only really seen a couple of games here - am not really familiar with anyone's playing style). If Abe is a wolf (which is still very much an 'if' at this point), this would be the next person I'd be looking at.

MartinD - I know that I'm a non-roled villager, and I also know that the only way that this can be proved for certain is for me to be lynched - anything I say could be interpreted as me being a sneaky lying wolf trying to pass myself off as a harmless villager (which is the whole point of the game!)

(For info - my education and line of work mean that I don't deal in certainties - if you asked me how likely it was that the sun would rise tomorrow, I'd answer that it was virtually certain, but would not say that it was certain or inevitable...)

If I had to cast a vote right now, I'd be voting for Abe again. I am open to persuasion, though, and will be having a good read over what's been posted before making my decision later on today.

[hoopsguy]

OK, I think everyone has had time to chime in on roles if they wanted to claim them today. I've got a role, but it is one that I've been keeping to myself up to this point because:
1.) I haven't done any good with it yet
2.) It is a little weaker than normal
3.) I was hoping someone might cross-claim me when the heat was turned up last night.

I'm the Hoplite. I guarded Chief Rum on Night 1 (and started second-guessing that decision very early in Day 2), but I won't tell who I guarded Night 2 just yet since that person would be a sitting duck tonight. Outside of that, I'll answer any questions about my play that folks care to ask.

[PurdueBrad]

I'm proctoring the ACT today so I (possibly) won't be on until around 12-12:30 central. I'm throwing a vote out there now but it can/will change. I just want to avoid the penalty for no vote at this point.

vote Martin D

[Lathum]

so what do you guys think of both MArtin and theNorm claiming to both be non rolled villagers?

Seems unlikely. I tend to believe hoops and according to my logic Hoops should be good.

I know this sounds insane, but what do you guys think about orchestrating a tie between Norn and Martin to eliminate them both?

[hoopsguy]

Lathum, if there are two wolves it is probably going to be hard to pull off if they are around at deadline.

I'm all for giving it a shot, provided that you have a provisional order in place in the event that it is not a tie at the end. You don't need to express who your duke candidate would be in the thread, but you should definitely have a preference and be ready to take that person out, if needed.

[Abe Sargent]

Yeah, I don;t think that'll work.

[Abe Sargent]

Too many variables and the wolves will definitely not play along.

[Passacaglia]

Fixed vote count from yesterday (I had USFL voting for himself instead of hoopsguy voting for him):

MartinD -- 0
Abe Sargent -- 2 MartinD (277) USFLTecmo (295)
hoopsguy -- 1 Chief Rum (278)
USFLTecmo -- 5 Abe Sargent (319) PurdueBrad (333) Lathum (354) TheNorm (359) hoopsguy (360)

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by Lathum

Pass, who do you think are the wolves?

I think the wolves are the bad guys.

[Passacaglia]

Today's vote count:

TheNorm -- 1 Lathum (429)
MartinD -- 1 PurdueBrad (436)

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

I think the wolves are the bad guys.

Not in the movie Teen-wolf!

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by Alan T

Not in the movie Teen-wolf!

Hmm -- have we had a Teen Wolf themed game here? This gives me ideas..

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Lathum, if there are two wolves it is probably going to be hard to pull off if they are around at deadline.

.

Originally Posted by Abe Sargent

Yeah, I don;t think that'll work.

Originally Posted by Abe Sargent

Too many variables and the wolves will definitely not play along.

fine by me, then they completly out themselves

[Lathum]

hmm, 6 of us left a tie probably would be to hard to pull off.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by MartinD

Lathum - I'm definitely inclined to believe that he's the Ephor for Athens (particularly as I voted for him, and my vote was one of the three 'free' votes). It doesn't necessarily follow that he isn't a wolf, or that he doesn't have another role - my understanding of the rules is that the one-off 'duke' ability would be added to whatever role the winner of the vote already had (as you can't exactly allocate a role to someone at the start of the game, then take that role away from them at the end of Day 1...) My impression of his behaviour so far is that he's good - of course, this could just be a very smooth smokescreen from a wolf, but I'm inclined to believe that he's a villager.

To answer this, when USFL went out he screamed to the wolves that I am the Ephor.

He obviously scanned me, had I come back wolf he wouldn't have done that.

Unless I am mistaken that's why people have me cleared as much as I can be cleared.

[hoopsguy]

OK, for now I'll try to balance out the votes across the two guys. We haven't heard from either of them about whether they back the plan, but I figure for survival they have to cross-vote each other. That should be important for both sides.

VOTE MARTIND

[Lathum]

Abe Sargent- Phoenix- alligiance unknown

Lathum- Ephor0 villager- good based on USFL's parting words

hoopsguy- Claims Hoplite- according to my logic probably good. I find it hard to believe we had the evil seer, wolf marathoner and wolf hoplite. If we did may as well pack it in before we started.

MartinD- Claims roll less villager

TheNorm- Also claims roll less villager

PurdueBrad- marathon runner- probably good since no one has come out against him.


Now to me Schmidty is the wild card. If the wolves took out one of their own N1 then it is possible both Martin and TheNorm could be telling the truth.

It is possible Abe is a wolf despite being the phoenix.

So with 6 left at worst it is 4-2 with 2 of Abe/ Martin/ Norm being wolves

At best Schmidty was a wolf and it is 5-1 with 1 of Abe/ MArtin/ Norm the last wolf.

Now here is the rub.

If it is 4-2 and we miss tonight barring a BG block we lose the city. A tie would be great because either way if we miss we lose the city, but a 1-1 trade would make it 3-1 going into the night phase and we are guarenteed another day. I just think a tie would be hard to coordinate.

thoughts