A Wererolf, a Vampire, and a Villager Walk Into a Bar (Game Over, Vampires Win)

[timmae]

Did GE claim seer D1a/b and his scan?

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by timmae

Just reread D1a (and D1b) to get any insight into Chief's claim and who he may have been a villager with and the interactions with Henry seem to indicate a pattern where the two may have been working together. Chief sits votes bhlloy and then switches to henry late in D1a. Only others on henry were autumn and me. Then D1b when henry gets voted up 4-2-2 chief evens it out 3-3-2. Henry then starts a run on telle. If chief flipped to wolf then odds may say henry is still a baddie. I am not sure he would vote chief like he did D2 but still worth tracking maybe.

In the first vote, bhlloy was a runaway vote leader as an inactive player. I wanted more conversation (and said so in my change of vote post). "Only others on henry" implies that it was a throwaway vote. Henry was actually the second leading votegetter, and it moved him into a tie with bhlloy. Also I would argue "late" on that one. I made that vote switch more than an hour before deadline as I recall.

Ironically, the D1b vote was similar for me. I wanted a closer vote, so I flipped off of henry to Render. The Telle run came out of nowhere from my perspective. I don't think she had a single vote when I switched on D1b.

As a villager, I wanted close votes and to hide in the confusion. Runaway votes don't really help "villagers" once roles start to come out.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by timmae

Did GE claim seer D1a/b and his scan?

Yes. He said he was going to scan me.

Assuming he's telling the truth of course. Note, his previous role reveal came before mine, so he might be using my reveal to build trust himself. Heck, even if he was indeed the seer before, he could be a villager now.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

Yes. He said he was going to scan me.

Assuming he's telling the truth of course. Note, his previous role reveal came before mine, so he might be using my reveal to build trust himself. Heck, even if he was indeed the seer before, he could be a villager now.

Correction, his previous role came AFTER mine, not before.

*forehead slap

[Chief Rum]

Previous role reveal.

Wow.

[bhlloy]

I see a couple of posts saying it's important whether CR was telling the truth about being a villager (baddie) yesterday and trying to figure out who else was to see whether he was lying - is it remotely relevant and why do we think he would lie considering it could easily be disproved for no disadvantage for the player who disproved it?

The assumption I guess is that everybody switched teams, but assuming the teams weren't equal to start with that can't be a valid assumption anyway.

I'm not sure it matters what people were yesterday. What they are today is more important, and we still have people who claimed good team for no apparent reason and probably at least one more vanilla goodie than is actually out there. Unless I'm missing something with the latest round of questioning. Seems to me like we're back at another day 1, except for some reason a bunch of people decided to reveal so we have a good place to start.

[bhlloy]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

Heck, even if he was indeed the seer before, he could be a villager now.

Right - no matter what people were before they could presumably be anything now. I asked GE about his scan just because I was interested in getting in his head and seeing if we could shake something loose, but realistically I believe he was the seer, there's no point or advantage in him lying about it.

[Autumn]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

In the first vote, bhlloy was a runaway vote leader as an inactive player. I wanted more conversation (and said so in my change of vote post). "Only others on henry" implies that it was a throwaway vote. Henry was actually the second leading votegetter, and it moved him into a tie with bhlloy. Also I would argue "late" on that one. I made that vote switch more than an hour before deadline as I recall.

Ironically, the D1b vote was similar for me. I wanted a closer vote, so I flipped off of henry to Render. The Telle run came out of nowhere from my perspective. I don't think she had a single vote when I switched on D1b.

As a villager, I wanted close votes and to hide in the confusion. Runaway votes don't really help "villagers" once roles start to come out.

This is the crazy world that we're in now where supposed good guy Chief is now defending the vote history of bad guy Chief. It's odd that you're attempting to make your votes seem reasonable when you acknowledge you were a bad guy at the time. I assume you dispute the theory that you were helping Henry, yet you don't say so here. Were you, as a bad guy at the time, trying to defend Henry-at-the-time?

I don't see a real reason to be cagey about your time as a bad guy. The new bad guys are aware of how many of them there are, but the good guys are in the dark. The new bad guys can share with each other what their previous roles were, so they know how many switched sides. The good guys knowing who was working against the good guys in the previous timeline helps make sense of what was happening in thread. The good guys having a better idea of how many bad guys there are in the game helps the good guys. The argument that somehow we're giving info to the bad guys if the previous iteration of bad guys is revealed seems iffy. No one, including presumably Chief's fellow ex-villagers, know if there are other bad guys in the game. And no one at all knows what roles people have been re-assigned to, so nothing revealed about the past timeline reveals anything to the bad guys about the new one. Presumably every single person in game will claim that they are now a good guy.

All that to say, I find it odd that Chief, a very clever player, would not take advantage of his sudden switch to empower the good guys. I think we have to consider the idea that he claimed to have changed sides but did not, and is being careful to not say too much to back himself into a corner.

vote Chief Rum

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by Autumn

This is the crazy world that we're in now where supposed good guy Chief is now defending the vote history of bad guy Chief. It's odd that you're attempting to make your votes seem reasonable when you acknowledge you were a bad guy at the time. I assume you dispute the theory that you were helping Henry, yet you don't say so here. Were you, as a bad guy at the time, trying to defend Henry-at-the-time?

I don't see a real reason to be cagey about your time as a bad guy. The new bad guys are aware of how many of them there are, but the good guys are in the dark. The new bad guys can share with each other what their previous roles were, so they know how many switched sides. The good guys knowing who was working against the good guys in the previous timeline helps make sense of what was happening in thread. The good guys having a better idea of how many bad guys there are in the game helps the good guys. The argument that somehow we're giving info to the bad guys if the previous iteration of bad guys is revealed seems iffy. No one, including presumably Chief's fellow ex-villagers, know if there are other bad guys in the game. And no one at all knows what roles people have been re-assigned to, so nothing revealed about the past timeline reveals anything to the bad guys about the new one. Presumably every single person in game will claim that they are now a good guy.

All that to say, I find it odd that Chief, a very clever player, would not take advantage of his sudden switch to empower the good guys. I think we have to consider the idea that he claimed to have changed sides but did not, and is being careful to not say too much to back himself into a corner.

vote Chief Rum

That's a rather bold and long diatribe to justify a vote on me.

I have been honest and forthcoming, holding back only on baddie information that I think might help the new bad side.

You and I seem to have a fundamental disagreement on the value of that information. I think whether or not this game is a complete re-roll, with new roles not in the first iteration, is important information for the new bad guys as they may hold previous roles they can then feel fairly confident about what other roles are in the game.

That is why I'm being cagey. You disagree. I'll tell you now, killing me won't get you a villager. It will just waste a day.

[Telle]

It's also entirely within the realm of possibility that some people have switched from one kind of baddie to the other kind. Maybe Chief was a villager before and isn't now, but that doesn't necessarily make him a wolf.

vote Chief Rum

[Telle]

And sorry to vote and run, but I gotta go cook dinner. I should be back well before deadline.

[Chief Rum]

Also, I find different temperaments from one day to the next to be curious.

Autumn, you were barely around for two days while you were the claimed contained wolf. Now, you're around a lot. Perhaps you have a good guy role now, but if so, you're being rather forward with your business if you are.

You were the first to come out with your previous role and you have been on the attack from the start of Day 2.

That seems silly if you're an important role, and you're no5 dtupid. To me, that means you are a vanilla wolf (which you sorta denied) or you're not a good role or a vanilla wolf. I don't like the options you have left.

It makes me wonder if a bold and smart player would come completely change around his play like this. Autumn is a bild and smart player.

Other temperament changes I am noticing. GE is around more. Telle has dialed it back some.

[Autumn]

That seems a bit overblown. I posted once at 4:30, and was able to post a bunch of times around noon, and that's it. I posted my reveal after deadline and then went to bed.

That said, I certainly am feeling more engaged now--as the newly converted werewolf, my win condition just involved making it to the end of the game. I therefore hung back a bit in thread as I know posting a lot is a great way to become a target. Now I don't have to worry about that.

[Chief Rum]

To clarify that second to last paragraph, it makes me wonder if a bold and smart VILLAGER would make this play. I think Autumn is the kind of player who would.

Also, I am brought to mind looking at his long vote post oneme, "Thou dost protest too much."

[bhlloy]

I think that’s actually solid logic CR, looking at how people have posted pre and post switch. I’d add that while I was and remain suspicious of LSG, she is playing the exact same game as far as I can see.

Autumn still is my “most likely to be good” of the early reveals. It’s a hella ballsy move by a bad guy to come out and be the first to reveal like that. Although if bad guys can communicate maybe it’s a plan they came up with and if they got into trouble with it to reinforce among themselves in thread... hmmm. Autumn is a good enough player to pull that off.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by Autumn

That seems a bit overblown. I posted once at 4:30, and was able to post a bunch of times around noon, and that's it. I posted my reveal after deadline and then went to bed.

That said, I certainly am feeling more engaged now--as the newly converted werewolf, my win condition just involved making it to the end of the game. I therefore hung back a bit in thread as I know posting a lot is a great way to become a target. Now I don't have to worry about that.

So, you're claiming you still have your old role, merely converted, rather than just being assigned a vanilla wolf role?

That runs contrary to everyone else so far. Are you the only one who kept your role then? And if no other night actions were processed, how did the one that converted you go through?

This stinks. I'm not buying it.

VOTE AUTUMN

[Autumn]

You're coming on pretty strong, Chief.

Now, my old role was called "newly converted werewolf".

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by Autumn

You're coming on pretty strong, Chief.

Now, my old role was called "newly converted werewolf".

Lol.. hey pot! I'm kettle.

Originally Posted by Autumn

This is the crazy world that we're in now where supposed good guy Chief is now defending the vote history of bad guy Chief. It's odd that you're attempting to make your votes seem reasonable when you acknowledge you were a bad guy at the time. I assume you dispute the theory that you were helping Henry, yet you don't say so here. Were you, as a bad guy at the time, trying to defend Henry-at-the-time?

I don't see a real reason to be cagey about your time as a bad guy. The new bad guys are aware of how many of them there are, but the good guys are in the dark. The new bad guys can share with each other what their previous roles were, so they know how many switched sides. The good guys knowing who was working against the good guys in the previous timeline helps make sense of what was happening in thread. The good guys having a better idea of how many bad guys there are in the game helps the good guys. The argument that somehow we're giving info to the bad guys if the previous iteration of bad guys is revealed seems iffy. No one, including presumably Chief's fellow ex-villagers, know if there are other bad guys in the game. And no one at all knows what roles people have been re-assigned to, so nothing revealed about the past timeline reveals anything to the bad guys about the new one. Presumably every single person in game will claim that they are now a good guy.

All that to say, I find it odd that Chief, a very clever player, would not take advantage of his sudden switch to empower the good guys. I think we have to consider the idea that he claimed to have changed sides but did not, and is being careful to not say too much to back himself into a corner.

vote Chief Rum

[Chief Rum]

And again, I want you to be absolutely clear. You are claiming you are still your old role, just merely fully converted now. You did NOT receive a change role. Your role changed as a result of a night action on a night when no othe rnight actions appear to have occurred?

Do I understand that right?

[Autumn]

No, I"m not sure how I gave you that impression. Go back and read my original post. My original role was the "newly converted werewolf". It's a neutral role. I'm now a regular wolf on the wolf team, due to the tie debacle.

[Chief Rum]

If the village thinks it is best for me to reveal the rest of the information I know from when I was a villager, I will. I think it's better kept under wraps because it gives too much old game info to the new villagers.

But if the choice is to reveal that to keep you all from lynching a vanilla wolf, and wasting a day which will likely only go 3-4 more days at best, then I will.

I'll let a couple hours pass and see what everyone thinks.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by Autumn

That seems a bit overblown. I posted once at 4:30, and was able to post a bunch of times around noon, and that's it. I posted my reveal after deadline and then went to bed.

That said, I certainly am feeling more engaged now--as the newly converted werewolf, my win condition just involved making it to the end of the game. I therefore hung back a bit in thread as I know posting a lot is a great way to become a target. Now I don't have to worry about that.

Okay, I did misread. My apologies. You are correct, and have been consistent with your reveal. The wording was a bit confusing, but I should have paid closer attention.

This doesn't mean you're not a villager now, but you shouldn't get any flack for this part.

UNVOTE AUTUMN

[Chief Rum]

You're still absolutely wrong about me though. If I was a villager now, why would I have revealed my old allegiance in the first place?

I did that to help the village. And you want to hang me for it.

[bhlloy]

I think you should use your best judgement about whether there’s anything in there that could be detrimental to the good guys, but also I don’t know if it really changes much because just because you can prove you were bad yesterday doesn’t necessarily mean you have to be good today?

[Autumn]

Your choice of what to reveal is a part of my reasoning for my vote, but to be fair, no one else mentioned it before me, so I'm not sure it's THE reason why you are in the lead.

[bhlloy]

I’m not sure I really follow your logic there Autumn. If he’s bad, why does the reveal that he was bad yesterday matter? He’s either telling the truth, or he’s lying - doesn’t seem to be much upside if he’s telling the truth and if he’s lying there’s a ton of downside, because he can be counterclaimed on that role with no impact on the person who actually had it and then he’s done for.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by Autumn

Your choice of what to reveal is a part of my reasoning for my vote, but to be fair, no one else mentioned it before me, so I'm not sure it's THE reason why you are in the lead.

No, the reason is you guys are grasping at straws and you want to vote out an old villager, who is not a no power wolf. The good guys want to hang me because they don't have enough information and they would rather be lazy thinking about it and just hang the old villager. The bad guys are loving it because they can hide their votes amongst the wolf numbskull voters.

[Chief Rum]

Who is NOW a no power wolf.

I really need to start proofreading my posts.

[Chief Rum]

Speaking of attitude transitions, henry has gotten a lot more quiet.

Render is still quiet. His approach hasn't changed.

[timmae]

The reason I was questioning the chief and henry relationship was to put pressure on opening up discussion. We need to talk in order to create a basis for future investigation. I honestly don't care that chief was a villager, I do care what that could mean for who may still be a villager. I don't believe probabilities should be our sole reason for a vote but it could be a starting point when we have not a lot of other information.

I agree on those who have been eerily quiet... both D1a/D1b and D2. Speak up people... my vote will likely be in that pool (which is where it currently sits). We don't have much to go on for a few people yet!!

[timmae]

Right now my gut tells me autumn and chief are wolves of some kind. RendeR questioning was ok. GE was at least around and read ok. Maybe ok on bhlloy.

Henry, lsg, telle and brit maybe questionable.

[LoneStarGirl]

This is how I understood it as well since my action didn't go through.

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

I am merely guessing here, but I would suppose it is because the lynch happened first. The tie triggered the re-role, or whatever it is, and EF wouldn't then turn around and ask newly made baddies or good guy roles to make decisions on no information. No night kill because the game reset meant no night actions for anyone.

FTR, you were our target. We decided you were a combination of dangerous but playing too quiet to likely be protected.

[LoneStarGirl]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

Other temperament changes I am noticing. GE is around more. Telle has dialed it back some.

I was going to make the same comment. Telle was a fireball the first two hours and now she is acting more like.... me.

Does that mean she was a baddie defending her honor vehemently to prevent being killed and now she is a goodie and can relax?

Or is she bad now and wanting to keep out of the limelight?

[LoneStarGirl]

I don't have an exact vote count and I dont want a run away vote for CR'

vote Telle

She had a lot of momentum towards the end of night 1 and then a tie happened. I think she is relieved the pressure faded away so she has stopped participating as much.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

Correction, his previous role came AFTER mine, not before.

*forehead slap

This is going back a bit, but just want to say I also misread GE's original post coming out with his previous role, which immediately followed Autumn's post coming out of the deadline. He actually revealed the wolf seer reveal in the post before mine.

A frightening idea occurred to me as I was looking over all of the vanilla reveals. It seems unlikely, but... what if we're all telling the truth?

As in, all roles have been removed. There are still villagers because the game would be over otherwise, but what if the punishment is there are no extra roles?

[britrock88]

Originally Posted by bhlloy

I'm not sure it matters what people were yesterday. What they are today is more important, and we still have people who claimed good team for no apparent reason and probably at least one more vanilla goodie than is actually out there. Unless I'm missing something with the latest round of questioning. Seems to me like we're back at another day 1, except for some reason a bunch of people decided to reveal so we have a good place to start.

This may be the most concise summary of where I think we are from a player-reading perspective.

The game setup perspective is something else. Trying to recall what we've seen for D1A roles, we have... a recently converted wolf (N), a seer, a town watch, and a villager. (Did CR specify vanillager or brutal villager?)

[britrock88]

Updating a vote tally... but a leading thought: we haven't seen nearly as much action on the voting front today. Part of that is explainable because D1A was two days long, though.

[britrock88]

Originally Posted by EagleFan

As of Post 396:

Chief Rum 2 - henry296 (371), GoldenEagle (382)
LoneStarGirl 1 - timmae (352)
britrock88 1 - LoneStarGirl (365)
GoldenEagle 1 - bhlloy (374)

Originally Posted by Autumn

vote Chief Rum

Originally Posted by Telle

vote Chief Rum

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

VOTE AUTUMN

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

UNVOTE AUTUMN

Originally Posted by LoneStarGirl

vote Telle

Chief Rum 4 - henry296 (371), GoldenEagle (382), Autumn (408), Telle (410)
LoneStarGirl 1 - timmae (352)
britrock88 1 - LoneStarGirl (365)
GoldenEagle 1 - bhlloy (374)

Yet to vote: britrock, CR, render

I don't think LSG's latest vote is legal because she has a vote sitting on me.

[Chief Rum]

I'm holding my vote to see if another candidate emerges, of course.

[britrock88]

I agree with LSG's rationale to avoid a runaway vote, but am puzzled at the misfire on the revote. Based on nothing more than that and the fact that she's one of two players other than myself that I can vote to within 2 of CR...

VOTE LoneStarGirl

[britrock88]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

I'm holding my vote to see if another candidate emerges, of course.

Right, and "yet to vote" doesn't give any credit for your level of engagement or the move on/off Autumn. Maybe not the most precise phrase.

[bhlloy]

I'm down with pushing a second candidate at this time. I'm pretty happy with any of the 4 who came right out and claimed villager being up today

Unvote GoldenEagle
Vote LoneStarGirl

[bhlloy]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

This is going back a bit, but just want to say I also misread GE's original post coming out with his previous role, which immediately followed Autumn's post coming out of the deadline. He actually revealed the wolf seer reveal in the post before mine.

A frightening idea occurred to me as I was looking over all of the vanilla reveals. It seems unlikely, but... what if we're all telling the truth?

As in, all roles have been removed. There are still villagers because the game would be over otherwise, but what if the punishment is there are no extra roles?

Didn't Autumn say he wasn't vanilla? And I'm going to give you the benefit of the doubt that you weren't fishing for another role reveal here, but that might be a baddie play if you think you are going down tonight.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by bhlloy

Didn't Autumn say he wasn't vanilla? And I'm going to give you the benefit of the doubt that you weren't fishing for another role reveal here, but that might be a baddie play if you think you are going down tonight.

No he just said he was a wolf. And if I recall correctly, it was Autumn who later countered someone saying all the reveals were for vanilla wolves, pointing out that he hadn't. He simply stated that he was a Wolf.

[britrock88]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

No he just said he was a wolf. And if I recall correctly, it was Autumn who later countered someone saying all the reveals were for vanilla wolves, pointing out that he hadn't. He simply stated that he was a Wolf.

Concur with this. We're all attempting to read between the lines...

[Autumn]

I am still happy to put pressure on Chief Rum, who I have questions about. I don't see any reason to move to LoneStarGirl, and wonder about those votes. Quiet night, I'd love to see more votes and some more reasoning for them.

[henry296]

Sorry I got a little quiet, busy afternoon at work and then had dinner, went for a walk and got consumed by recruiting.

Throughout the day, I’m starting to question my own theory in Chief Rum. If he was bad, I don’t think this play was good as it would draw suspicion just like it did. With autumn somewhat changing sides maybe a complete reset is possible even though I didn’t. However, that theory means that today is essentially day 1C.

unvote Chief Rum

[henry296]

I think voting for people who gave us some information provides more information that voting for someone who is keeping their previous role quiet.

vote LoneStarGirl

[Autumn]

As in, if she's bad, we'll know not to necessarily believe her previous role?

[timmae]

I didnt like lsg's D1 with votes on bhlloy and then landing with chief. Not much to say D1 or D2 and claimed vanilla wolf a few times D2. Seems like too much of a reminder that she is just a vanilla wolf. Need some pressure here.