GroupThink 3 - Sizing up the Kitty Hawk Flyers

[Fritz]

Originally posted by QuikSand
Here’s a measurement of the production of our various pass receivers – I like the “yards per attempt” stat, so we’ll calculate it for our various targets out there:

PLAYER               ATT  REC  YDS   Y/ATT
WR Peter Song         40   30  426    10.7
WR Kenneth Carr       47   32  610    13.0
FB Earnest Rubble     33   24  249     7.5
RB Daniel Finley      25   15  109     4.4
WR Corwin Rheams      20   16  216    10.8
WR Robert Sanderson   13    7  101     7.8

What strikes me here is that we’re getting really good production out of our short passes to Rubble – that figure is remarkably high for a back. I expect that there’s some general noise in these stats for the wideouts – but throwing underneath to our FB is a very productive part of the offensive gameplan right now. We’ve got Rubble in there for all passing situations, and it really looks like he’s a great weapon in the passing game.

you don't notice something missing from that group? Something like a TE?

Rubble is slotted the #2 TE, but if you look at fromation use, he comes in as the primary TE is some packages. In the base Single Back formation he is the only TE/FB on the field.

I wonder if he is getting his yards there?

[albionmoonlight]

And it lets our completion percentage stay at a really high 66%.

I agree with Quik about Peterson. Along those same lines, Fritz, please do not put Martin back into the lineup until he is 100%. I want to make sure that he is healthy for the stretch run. I think that the platoon idea that Quik suggests is just fine until Martin returns.

As stated above, I tweaked the game plan a little to try and make it harder to pass against us. We will see how that works when we play a decent team.

[QuikSand]

Originally posted by Fritz
you don't notice something missing from that group? Something like a TE?

Rubble is slotted the #2 TE, but if you look at fromation use, he comes in as the primary TE is some packages. In the base Single Back formation he is the only TE/FB on the field.

I wonder if he is getting his yards there?

Good point, and it did just slip my mind. That can certainly help explain him... I believ a TE is generally likely to see a higher figure there than a RB/FB. Makes sense.

I'm still pleased with his production -- completing almost 75% of the passes thrown his way is a really good sign.

[Fritz]

What type of team are we?

Diff	
Q1	3
Q2	0
Q3	15
Q4	42
OT	0
Total	60

Looking at the total point diff we like to keep it close in the first half, and then explode in the second.

also, we are middle of the pack on 3rd downs and in the redzone. Something to work on.

[albionmoonlight]

Do we make any adjustments based on Spark's shoulder soreness?

[QuikSand]

According to our scouting staff, the best player on the team who is not getting regular starts is LB Desmond Shon, and U must agree - he's pretty solid. He's never been much of a pass rusher, but has solid skills for it, it appears.

Would we be better served sliding Shon over to play the weak side LB slot, and moving Gillespie in to play DE (at least in passing situations)? Gillespie is also hurt (probable) at the moment, so that might factor into the decision as well.

[QuikSand]

Originally posted by Fritz
Looking at the total point diff we like to keep it close in the first half, and then explode in the second.

Cool stat. What do you think that means? Good running game?

[albionmoonlight]

Originally posted by QuikSand
According to our scouting staff, the best player on the team who is not getting regular starts is LB Desmond Shon, and U must agree - he's pretty solid. He's never been much of a pass rusher, but has solid skills for it, it appears.

Would we be better served sliding Shon over to play the weak side LB slot, and moving Gillespie in to play DE (at least in passing situations)? Gillespie is also hurt (probable) at the moment, so that might factor into the decision as well.

The D gameplan has the WLB (Gillispe's spot) rushing most of the time. I have him rushing because there is not much else he can do. I don't remember Shon having good pass rushing skills. I might be wrong.

If we do not put a good pass rusher as WLB, we will have to tweak the gameplan.

As it is, I am happy with Gillespie's play and do not want him off of the field.

Perhaps we could try Shon as DE until Martin returns and see how he does?

[Fritz]

Thoughts on the redzone/inside their 3:

When we get inside their 20 we start passing more and deeper and are more willing to go for it.

Inside the 3 we start running more (but less than the default plan) and go for it "99".

I will be looking into these to see if we can improve.

[Fritz]

Originally posted by QuikSand
Cool stat. What do you think that means? Good running game?

not sure. I would need to spend some time with the logs to break down our games.

Off the cuff I would geuss that our 4th QD is just right, OR we are exploiting the AI's 4thQ D.

[QuikSand]

Originally posted by albionmoonlight
The D gameplan has the WLB (Gillispe's spot) rushing most of the time. I have him rushing because there is not much else he can do. I don't remember Shon having good pass rushing skills. I might be wrong.

If we do not put a good pass rusher as WLB, we will have to tweak the gameplan.

Shon's ratings, according to our scout, are:

Run D: 30/34
PR Tech: 50/67
PR Str: 89

...compared to Gillespie, incidentally:

Run D: 12/24
PR Tech: 48/90
PR Str: 41


I, too, like Gillespie... but it's certainly possible that he is hurting our run defense to some degree (those ratings are a liability).

Shon is slotted as a MLB, meaning that he cannot be used as a DE, I don't think - only outside LBs may do so. That's why I was thinking that perhaps sliding WLB Gillespie into a DE spot for passing situations might be the best use of his overall skills.

[albionmoonlight]

Originally posted by QuikSand
Shon's ratings, according to our scout, are:

Run D: 30/34
PR Tech: 50/67
PR Str: 89

...compared to Gillespie, incidentally:

Run D: 12/24
PR Tech: 48/90
PR Str: 41


I, too, like Gillespie... but it's certainly possible that he is hurting our run defense to some degree (those ratings are a liability).

Shon is slotted as a MLB, meaning that he cannot be used as a DE, I don't think - only outside LBs may do so. That's why I was thinking that perhaps sliding WLB Gillespie into a DE spot for passing situations might be the best use of his overall skills.

We can certainly use Gilliespie as the pass rush DE right now while Martin is on the pine.

So, Fritz, let's put DT Peters as "normal" DE, OLB Gillespie as pass rush DE, and Shon as WLB.

Keep the blitz percentages, etc. the same.

[Fritz]

On the D line:

Peters was starting, but was hurt so I took him out of the starting line up. Look back to the pre season I think.

Davidson was the backup.

Just looking at bars, Peters ought starting somewhere. He is not a monster, but I bet he could be a 6 sack/season guy coming off the edge and might be a good pick until Martin is fit.

If we can get the front seven resolved soon, I will run the games.


edit: got it
-----

On the O side, I have tinked with my plan a little to make use of the Buzzbee's reports.

I have move Strong to #2RB, but I think he might be a step back in that role.

[Buzzbee]

Fritz beat me to it. It was the first game against Bermuda, I believe.

Originally posted by Fritz
dola - DT Ellis Peters is a little roughed up, so I am going to rotate some DTs. I hope that is OK.

Here is why Peters hasn't seen much PT. FYI.

[Fritz]

here is what I did on D

Moved DT peters to RDE Normal
Moved Gillespie to RDE Rush
Moved Peters to LDT Rush
Moved Shon to WLB
Moved Peterson to MLB backup

[Fritz]

are we set?

[Buzzbee]

Originally posted by albionmoonlight
Sparks is, however, probable with shoulder tendintis for the next four weeks. That may be our first decision of the day tomorrow. I say let the kid play until his arm falls off--he's doing great.

I think we might should rest Sparks against Ypsilanti. We have a BYE week afterwards (I think) and go against our conference leader Bermuda next. Give him a rest, and let our backup get some reps. We are 6-2, so I don't think a "throwaway" game would be too horrible. I'd rather have Sparks healthy for the stretch run rather than risk further injury. Sit him for one game and get 2 weeks off.

[albionmoonlight]

Originally posted by Fritz
here is what I did on D

Moved DT peters to RDE Normal
Moved Gillespie to RDE Rush
Moved Peters to LDT Rush
Moved Shon to WLB
Moved Peterson to MLB backup

Good by me. The D is set as far as I am concerned for simming purposes.

I could go either way with Sparks.

[Buzzbee]

I didn't have much of a chance to Scout this morning, but I did cycle through the Ypsilanti roster. What I can remember is they had some pretty stout Safeties, but not a lot at Corner. Also Fritz, you might want to check the D-Line. I think I remember them having a monster in the middle. On their offense I can't remember much except that their QB's were average and the O-Line wasn't much to write home about.

I didn't have a chance to scout our other oponents, but one of the next four is Bermuda who we played the first game of the season. You can review my scouting report for them if you wish.

[QuikSand]

Originally posted by Fritz
here is what I did on D

Moved DT peters to RDE Normal
Moved Gillespie to RDE Rush
Moved Peters to LDT Rush
Moved Shon to WLB
Moved Peterson to MLB backup

I think that's good... while our top to starters at DE are unabl to start. Once we get them both back, I guess we look at the Gillespie/Shon spot with open eyes, but I'm willing to put Shon back into a supporting role with Gillespie as the starter. (Though at worst, I think Shon ought to be the first reserve at every LB spot)

[QuikSand]

Originally posted by Buzzbee
Also Fritz, you might want to check the D-Line. I think I remember them having a monster in the middle.

Definitely - DT Grady Bagette is a serious anchor on the DL, their best defensive player. They have good safeties, also.

[QuikSand]

Originally posted by Buzzbee
I didn't have a chance to scout our other oponents, but one of the next four is Bermuda who we played the first game of the season. You can review my scouting report for them if you wish.

We're at 6-2, and Bermuda is atop our division at 6-1 right now. The pending rematch, at our place, is probably our biggest game of the year.

[albionmoonlight]

I have a thing for Gillespie, but he may be a year from being the player I want him to be this year (assuming that his greens hold). I will look at Shon with open eyes when we are at full strength on the D line.

[Fritz]

so do you want me to rest a probable QB with sore shoulder?

[Buzzbee]

Quik - Any thoughts on sitting Sparks for a game? Resting him up for Bermuda? Fritz, as OC, what are your thoughts?

[Fritz]

on throw away games:

Ypsilanti is is ahead of us in the power rankings, they also lead the NC north, so this is a conf game. I think this is a big game that we have to win.

They are favored by 3 at home, so I think we can take them.

If he needs a rest, the game after Bermuda vs tusla would be the place to give it to him. After Tulsa is bottom feeder Norfolk.

[Buzzbee]

Our two losses are against Bermuda and Athens who are in our division. I would see the game against Bermuda as the greater of the "must wins". That was the only reason I suggested resting Sparks. I have no preference either way, and you are the OC so I will defer to your judgement. Just wanted to throw it out as a possibility.

[Fritz]

Originally posted by Buzzbee
I have no preference either way, and you are the OC so I will defer to your judgement.

One of the best parts of GT is debating the merits of a course of action. When it comes to the starting QB, I would like to see us reach some sort of tolerable consensus.

[Buzzbee]

How about reducing his PT?

[QuikSand]

I don't have a strong opinion at QB - I'm fine either way. I usually leave in my stars when they are listed as probable, that's how I'd lean, I guess.

[Fritz]

Originally posted by Buzzbee
How about reducing his PT?

does that do anything with QB?

[QuikSand]

Originally posted by Fritz
does that do anything with QB?

I don't think it does... but maybe it's a worthwhile gesture, just in case it sends a signal in terms of fatigue.

[Buzzbee]

Isn't there a setting, 1-9, that determines how much time a player sees on the field? That was what I was thinking about. As far as what effect it would have, I don't know. I was assuming that setting it at 3 or 4 would keep him off the field more than if it were at 7 or 8. If you don't think it will make much of a difference, then lets leave Sparks alone. He IS probable, and if it ain't broke, don't fix it.

[albionmoonlight]

I think that he is vital enough to our success that we should play him now and cross our fingers.

Any comments from the lurkers (if they exist)?

[Fritz]

there is and it does, but I don't think QBs will rotate like that.

[QuikSand]

Agreed with Fritz - even if you set the PT ro 1 or 2, nearly all starting QBs will play the full game.

[Fritz]

I am going to run the sim now, with sparks. My plan is to play him as long as he does not get any worse. if he drops to questionable, I will sit him down.

I respectfuly note Buzzbee's objection and offer full rights to endless posts of "I told you so" if we lose him.

[Fritz]

more to come soon, but we did not do well

[Fritz]

Kitty Hawk 17 at Ypsilanti 27


Good:
We held them to 68 yards rushing (2.1 per carry)
We sacked them 5 times.

Bad:
Sparks had a poor completion % and threw 5 bad passes. Buzzbee may have been right.
Dole returned 3 punts for 7 yards.

Ugly:

59 rushing yards. ooof

our medium passing went 26 attempts for 7 completions.

[albionmoonlight]

Is this week the bye?

[Fritz]

Bermuda 27 at Kitty Hawk 24

We were favored by 3

Good:
We held them to 27 yards rushing on 12 attempts for 1.7 avg.
Strong ran 8 times for 65 yards (8.1 avg) and a TD


Bad:
We threw 2 ints, one of which was retuned. There is the game.
Finley avg 1.8 yards on 21 attempts
T Johns allowed 3 sacks

Ugly:
We let 2 of the thier WR get 100+ yards

-----
Other than the 1 int, we did OK.

[Buzzbee]

Originally posted by Fritz
Kitty Hawk 17 at Ypsilanti 27

Bad:
Sparks had a poor completion % and threw 5 bad passes. Buzzbee may have been right.


Ugly:

our medium passing went 26 attempts for 7 completions.

I told you so!!!

Actually, I would have preferred being wrong.

{EDIT: And whose to say I was right? We might have done even worse with our backup.}

[Fritz]

Kitty Hawk (7) at Tulsa (24)

A WTF game

Good:
Mills had a 10 tackle day

Bad:


Ugly:
Sparks threw 4 int

sorry for the brevity. I need to do this fast and get to work

[QuikSand]

...wheels...falling...off...wagon...

[Fritz]

Norfolk 18 at Kitty Hawk 35

Back on track?

Good:
We won

bad:
our running game has stalled again

Ugly:

[Fritz]

file 1

[Fritz]

file 2

[Buzzbee]

I should have some time tonight to do some in depth scouting analysis for our last 4 games. Hopefully we can stay healthy for the stretch run and finish off strong. Then maybe Albion can sim the games and we can see if we make the playoffs.

Quik - I'm at work and don't have access to FOF4. Any key injuries?

[QuikSand]

Well, we knew coming in that Sparks has historically been prone to throw the interception. 96 picks in 2,249 passes is about 4.3%, and in an ideal circumstance you’d like to see than number below 2.0% or so. He came into this season, despite a very successful 2018 campaign (before being unceremoniously dumped by Thunder Bay) with a career TD/Int ratio of 86/96 – upside-down by 10. This season has boosted his career passer rating by a bit – but he clearly remains a pretty effective passer who will make mistakes.

I’m not knocking him at all – I just think we knew what we were getting when we signed him. Our offense ranks pretty highly with him at the helm, but we’re going to have some bad games, and some costly mistakes. It comes with the territory – that’s why this guy was $3 million, and some other guys were $15 million.

[QuikSand]

Injury Report:

Cedric Martin, LDE - Strained Patellar Tendon, Out, full strength in about 2 weeks.

Joseph Henderson, LCB - Bad Cold, Probable, full strength in about 1 week.

Peter Song, FL - Appendectomy, Out, full strength in about 3 weeks.

Robert Sanderson, FL - Shoulder Tendinitis, Probable, full strength in about 2 weeks.