WW Small Game IX- The Cold War !! game over CIA win

[st.cronin]

My understanding of the negotiator is that he's like a second seer, only he can ONLY find the merc - and when he does, the merc becomes a villager. I guess the kgb have their own negotiator, and if they find the merc first, the merc becomes a wolf.

That's how I understand it, Alan.

[MollyMurphy]

I just reread the roles...I think the mercenary is up for grabs....they do not care who they work for as long as it is at the right price. The negotiator is there to present the contracts to the mercenary.

[MollyMurphy]

Originally Posted by st.cronin

My understanding of the negotiator is that he's like a second seer, only he can ONLY find the merc - and when he does, the merc becomes a villager. I guess the kgb have their own negotiator, and if they find the merc first, the merc becomes a wolf.

That's how I understand it, Alan.

That sounds right.

[path12]

Originally Posted by Alan T

At best I think the mercenary is neutral, possibly convertable to good but more likely I think its someone we have to treat as not in our own interest. Now the negotiator I am a little more fuzzy on. They deal with the mercenary, and it does not give any hint to what their role might lean to. It also says the negotiator can offer the merc a contract...

A contract to do what exactly?

I guess I am hesitant to just put blind trust in the negotiator without knowing if they are even on our side. I don't understand how the role functions and they are tied to someone I don't believe is on our side. You seem to feel they are good though. Can you elaborate why?

The way I read it (and I could be way off) was that the negotiator was on our side and I would assume that one of the spies has the ability to try and search for their side -- it makes the most sense to me that way that there would be a race to find the mercenary and either keep good or try and convert.

[path12]

oops, typed too slow. Was caught on a call halfway through....

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by molson

It felt off to me, but it's hard to reconcile DC seemingly "giving up" on day 1 with a spy role.

Unless her week was so busy she didn't feel like she could do a good job with such a role and it freaked her out a little, which seems possible.

From what I know of DC, she seems like a kind, caring person. I think she really got upset at how the whole thing with me happened and perhaps regardless of what I said to try to let her know I was ok and didn't think any worse of her I think she still felt bad. I wouldn't be suprised if she is the type of person who cared more about people than about a game even with a decent role.

So I think in my mind I'm keeping everything to do with DC and that interaction out of my thoughts about Barkeep for now. Like I said, Barkeep's play seemed really off to me and at least for now I like that vote. Maybe I will change my mind as that was a sudden ping on my radar and I still have others I am concerned about.. but it really set off my "spidey senses"

[st.cronin]

Alan, the only issue I have is that Barkeep is too canny a player to make a hit and run vote like that if he were a wolf. Assuming I get lynched (which if he's bad it seems like that's the play), when I turn up good, Barkeep will come under intense scrutiny. I think he's likely good. I don't want to get lynched, so I'll vote for him if I have to. I think the wolves are elsewhere, though.

[molson]

Originally Posted by Alan T

From what I know of DC, she seems like a kind, caring person. I think she really got upset at how the whole thing with me happened and perhaps regardless of what I said to try to let her know I was ok and didn't think any worse of her I think she still felt bad. I wouldn't be suprised if she is the type of person who cared more about people than about a game even with a decent role.

I see that, but by the same line of thinking, it's hard to see her voting for herself (when she already had a vote against her, if I'm not mistaken), if she had a spy role, and throw the other spies under the bus like that. I know she was upset, but if she had a spy role - wouldn't she just quit or waste the day 1 vote, instead of trying to get herself whacked?

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by molson

I see that, but by the same line of thinking, it's hard to see her voting for herself (when she already had a vote against her, if I'm not mistaken), if she had a spy role, and throw the other spies under the bus like that. I know she was upset, but if she had a spy role - wouldn't she just quit or waste the day 1 vote, instead of trying to get herself whacked?

She wasn't the lead vote getter or close to it at the time if I remember right. I think there were a few people with more votes even after her vote for herself.

[molson]

Originally Posted by Alan T

She wasn't the lead vote getter or close to it at the time if I remember right. I think there were a few people with more votes even after her vote for herself.

It was her 2nd vote (you cast the first one), and no one else had more than 2at that point, so she put herself in a tie for the lead.

Of course, she might not have even been aware of that when she made the post.

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by molson

It was her 2nd vote (you cast the first one), and no one else had more than 2at that point, so she put herself in a tie for the lead.

Of course, she might not have even been aware of that when she made the post.

Ok for arguement sake, who do you think is the most likely to be wolf, and why?

[Chief Rum]

I don't buy the DC/BK reasoning just yet, and I'm not willing to sacrifice st cronin for the good of the team. But I need to make a vote, as this is one of my "two-job" days.

IMTheCrew's vote on AE really threw me, but his change since then makes more sense of that. I'm still suspicious of him.

I decided to go with Molly. She and Alan were the only ones with a vote on both ntndeacon and bullet at the end of the day, and Alan's move was much more publicized (not a move I consider wolfish). So for now, I go with her.

VOTE MOLLYMURPHY

[molson]

Originally Posted by Alan T

Ok for arguement sake, who do you think is the most likely to be wolf, and why?

Off the top of my head at the moment, saldana, and I'm suspicious of ITC. I don't want to articulate the reasons at the moment because I'm not at that point yet (and I'm doing the checking in from work thing), but basically the reasons are the same as others that share those suspicions. Nothing more concrete, sadly.

[bulletsponge]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

You gotta be kidding me.

I don't want to pile on here, but I have to say it; honestly, folks, if you're a key role for good, don't sit there and die without saying what the heck you are! That's just not having your head in the game if you are the BG and you buy it this early.

ok for the record i forgot to check back into the game. that night my brothers came over and we played some Mariocart racing and were having a blast. by the time it was over i rememberd to check back in and i was already dead. although even them i probably still wouldnt have revealed my role in keeping with the way i play.

btw i did tell everyone that any American would regret hanging me

[beargrowlz]

Ok, so why would the KGB target Narc?

1) From what I have picked up in this game, it seems to be general concensus that wolves target experienced villagers over inexperienced villagers, feeling the experience in the game is more of a threat than the unknown.

2) Narc has admitted he was inexperienced, and no one has contradicted him that he wasn't. Having never played before, I will thus assume that Narc falls in the inexperienced category.

Given that, why would the KGB target him, given that there were very experienced players who were participating in the discussion, such as Alan and Cronin, that would have made better targets?

3) Narc was onto someone who was KGB and they felt threatened by him. Narc was somewhat suspicious of me, moreso of Ardent, and even moreso of Cronin. If one of us were KGB, and Narc continued to press his line of thinking, that would make him a prime target.

or

4) The other prime, experienced, and participating targets for the KGB, Alan and Cronin, are KGB - both of them or individually - and they wouldn't take out their own. It's difficult for me to see Cronin as KGB given his first day actions of practically talking me into voting for him and almost getting himself shot. We also have AE's post stating that Cronin didn't make a night action Night 1 - not entirely exculpatory, but certainly adds some circumstantial evidence to the idea that Cronin is not KGB - or that Ardent is lying.

Why would Ardent lie if Cronin were CIA though? So if Ardent is lying, Cronin is most likely KGB and played me Day 1 - though it almost ended up getting him killed.

Alan on the other hand has drawn no posted suspicion from anyone, and that hardly seems to be reason to suspect him.

Ok, so as I see it, the possible players who benefit from a Narc kill if they are KGB are me, Cronin, Alan, Ardent.

Did I miss anyone that Narc was suspicious of? And are there other highly experienced players that have been participating that would make more likely targets than Narc unless they were KGB?

None of this however, touches upon the notion that a number of KGB are probably flying under the radar and just quiet.

But I can't get away from the idea that Narc was killed either a) because he was dangerously close to outing a spy or b) to protect someone else.

Either that or it was just a senseless, random CIA player the KGB chose to kill.

Not at all certain who to vote for atm.






4)

[Poli]

Originally Posted by Alan T

Ardent, I'm not sure if I want a discussion yet on who that player was, but I'm more interested in a discussion on what do we think the negotiator does and do we think its on our team. I have had a bit of a problem trying to figure out how the mercenary and the negotiator play into the whole scheme of thing.

At best I think the mercenary is neutral, possibly convertable to good but more likely I think its someone we have to treat as not in our own interest. Now the negotiator I am a little more fuzzy on. They deal with the mercenary, and it does not give any hint to what their role might lean to. It also says the negotiator can offer the merc a contract...

A contract to do what exactly?

I guess I am hesitant to just put blind trust in the negotiator without knowing if they are even on our side. I don't understand how the role functions and they are tied to someone I don't believe is on our side. You seem to feel they are good though. Can you elaborate why?

Mind you, I'm at work, so pardon any formatting. I think we're the only side with a negotiator, and I think if the KGB go for a night kill and find the merc, they get a conversion. That's why I'm fairly certain the person who came a rapping at my chamber door was looking for that merc.

[Alan T]

I had kind of hoped I would have been attacked last night honestly. I had found yesterday at the start of the day a sensor. I could have passed it or kept it or used it. I decided at the end of the day to use the sensor to warn me if anyone came after me.

Regardless of my moves, its like I can't make people consider I might be a wolf this game. And I hate it when people "buddy up" with me so to speak, it always makes me super suspicious. So my thought was perhaps since I couldn't buy any suspicion from anyone I would end up a target and used it last night.

Unfortunatly no one targeted me, I didnt get attacked and now can't use it anymore.

Usually when people leave me around in games its because I generate alot of traffic for them to hide in and I'm usually wrong on all of my guesses until after day 4 at the earliest anyways, yet I manage to convince people to follow me easily on votes the first two or three days when I'm just guessing like everyone else.

If I had to guess there are two experienced, well known Wolfs left just based on the people left. Then perhaps 1 newer player.

[Poli]

Originally Posted by st.cronin

Alan, the only issue I have is that Barkeep is too canny a player to make a hit and run vote like that if he were a wolf. Assuming I get lynched (which if he's bad it seems like that's the play), when I turn up good, Barkeep will come under intense scrutiny. I think he's likely good. I don't want to get lynched, so I'll vote for him if I have to. I think the wolves are elsewhere, though.

+1

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by ardent enthusiast

+1

If you agree with this statement then why did you vote Barkeep also?

[Poli]

Because he usually doesn't like the Qwik Vote plan. That's really were I was going with the +1.

[st.cronin]

Originally Posted by Alan T

Regardless of my moves, its like I can't make people consider I might be a wolf this game.

I wish I had that problem.

[beargrowlz]

Originally Posted by Alan T

Regardless of my moves, its like I can't make people consider I might be a wolf this game.

Why would you want to though?

[Lathum]

The commanding officer calls you all in to a meeting to inform you a new experimental device will be received sometime today. The device is a lie detector. I will select one of you at random to receive and test this device. The device allows you to review one post from a particular user and determine if they are telling the truth.

The goverment is awaiting test results so this item must be used within 12 hours of receiving it.

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by beargrowlz

Why would you want to though?

You learn that after a while after being night killed repeatedly on night 1 or night 2 that sometimes its not the most useful thing to be someone that most people don't consider to be a wolf. I'm not wanting people to think I'm a wolf obviously, but I just have a hard time swallowing that everyone thinks -none- of my moves are even a little suspicious.

[beargrowlz]

Sweet. That seems like prescient timing.

So let's see if we can get some folks on record for whomever gets the lie detector to take a shot at.

First, I am not a KGB agent. I am also not the merc. I am a plain CIA agent.

Alan, Cronin, Ardent, you are the other three Narc was suspicious of or are the most experienced players not targeted. Are you guys a KGB agent or the merc?

Hopefully this will narrow it down some.

[path12]

Originally Posted by Alan T

Regardless of my moves, its like I can't make people consider I might be a wolf this game. And I hate it when people "buddy up" with me so to speak, it always makes me super suspicious. So my thought was perhaps since I couldn't buy any suspicion from anyone I would end up a target and used it last night.

If it makes you feel any better, I think you might be a wolf. But really, I think any of you could be a wolf right now. I guess if I had to make a list it would be:

Trust: Nobody
Slight lean good: Ardent, Cronin
Neutral to slight distrust: Everyone else.

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by beargrowlz

Sweet. That seems like prescient timing.

So let's see if we can get some folks on record for whomever gets the lie detector to take a shot at.

First, I am not a KGB agent. I am also not the merc. I am a plain CIA agent.

Alan, Cronin, Ardent, you are the other three Narc was suspicious of or are the most experienced players not targeted. Are you guys a KGB agent or the merc?

Hopefully this will narrow it down some.

no of course not.. and I honestly think that saying things specifically for a Soothsayer or lie detector role goes against the spirit of the game/role.

I've said plenty of times though that I am a cia agent, and even this morning said it in the context of conversation, so I have no problems with any of those being scanned.

[Poli]

Originally Posted by Lathum

The commanding officer calls you all in to a meeting to inform you a new experimental device will be received sometime today. The device is a lie detector. I will select one of you at random to receive and test this device. The device allows you to review one post from a particular user and determine if they are telling the truth.

The goverment is awaiting test results so this item must be used within 12 hours of receiving it.

Hmmm.

[Alan T]

Just went back to look at what I said, I didn't say exactly what I thought I said this morning.

Well either way I'm a cia agent

I still don't think its in the spirit of the role though.

[st.cronin]

I am just a regular CIA agent.

Caution: Normally a lie detector type ability only works for certain statements. So whoever ends up with the device may not be able to use it on that sort of statement.

I can't think of anything better to use it on, though. Maybe Alan's statement that he had a sensor?

[Poli]

Originally Posted by beargrowlz

Sweet. That seems like prescient timing.

So let's see if we can get some folks on record for whomever gets the lie detector to take a shot at.

First, I am not a KGB agent. I am also not the merc. I am a plain CIA agent.

Alan, Cronin, Ardent, you are the other three Narc was suspicious of or are the most experienced players not targeted. Are you guys a KGB agent or the merc?

Hopefully this will narrow it down some.

Too easy. I got visited last night. If I were the merc, I'd be CIA now. If I were KGB, I assume I likely would have killed him, or he would have killed me. I dunno. I'm a CIA agent...though given our CO's propensity for shooting people in the head, I think I'm transferring to the FBI. Just kidding. Again, if I were a merc, I clearly would have been converted, either way, last night.

[beargrowlz]

Originally Posted by Alan T

and I honestly think that saying things specifically for a Soothsayer or lie detector role goes against the spirit of the game/role.

Well, you've certainly got more experience at the game than I. but I beg to differ on this. When presented with a scratch off lottery ticket, you scratch it off and hope you've won the lottery. You don't leave it unscratched until after the deadline for claiming the prize.

thus, when presented with a lie detector, I find it not only to be within the spirit of the game to use it, but also darn useful.

But coming from a noob such as me, YMMV.

[beargrowlz]

Originally Posted by ardent enthusiast

I dunno. I'm a CIA agent...though given our CO's propensity for shooting people in the head, I think I'm transferring to the FBI. Just kidding.

LOL

[Poli]

Originally Posted by st.cronin

I am just a regular CIA agent.

Caution: Normally a lie detector type ability only works for certain statements. So whoever ends up with the device may not be able to use it on that sort of statement.

I can't think of anything better to use it on, though. Maybe Alan's statement that he had a sensor?

Or that I tapped your phone OR that I had a visitor. There seems to be a small discussion that I could be lieing. Try me.

[st.cronin]

Originally Posted by ardent enthusiast

Or that I tapped your phone OR that I had a visitor. There seems to be a small discussion that I could be lieing. Try me.

It would be hilarious if YOU ended up with the lie detector.

[Poli]

Originally Posted by st.cronin

It would be hilarious if YOU ended up with the lie detector.

If I do, I'll be mad.

[beargrowlz]

I would like to note that simply saying you're a CIA agent probably wouldn't be detected as a lie if you're KGB or the merc, as you are posing as a CIA agent.

I think - and am only guessing here, that basically stating I am not KGb or I am not the merc could be detected as lies.

But everyone in the game is a CIA agent.

YMMV.

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by st.cronin

I am just a regular CIA agent.

Caution: Normally a lie detector type ability only works for certain statements. So whoever ends up with the device may not be able to use it on that sort of statement.

I can't think of anything better to use it on, though. Maybe Alan's statement that he had a sensor?

I don't care if its used on my statement, but it doesnt make sense using on a statement about an item that doesn't prove if you are good or bad. Even if I was bad I would have a chance of getting a sensor. If you're interested in me, I trust that you could find many better things to consider.

Perhaps an idea would be for each of us to look back at the thread over the past few days and see what statements people have made that we should nominate for scanning.

Ideally a statement that only has one true/false in it. Not something that could have partial truth and partial falsness (scanning multiple comments) if that makes sense.

[Lathum]

I should have mentioned the lie detector only works on statements that were made prior to it being received.

[st.cronin]

Originally Posted by molson

I got kicked off an AOL chat room in 1993 for being inappropriate.

I nominate this statement. j/k

[st.cronin]

Originally Posted by Lathum

I should have mentioned the lie detector only works on statements that were made prior to it being received.

Well, pfffffffffft.

[beargrowlz]

Originally Posted by Lathum

I should have mentioned the lie detector only works on statements that were made prior to it being received.

Boo hiss.

Still leaves plenty to choose from though, for whomever gets it.

Better than where we were.

[beargrowlz]

Dola.

Can someone think of any other possible reason why Narc was killed last night aside from those reasons I listed?

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by beargrowlz

Dola.

Can someone think of any other possible reason why Narc was killed last night aside from those reasons I listed?

Sure, even though this was his second game, he's been following WW games for quite a while. He put together well thought out arguements (even if I didn't agree with all of them), and most importantly he was good.

[st.cronin]

Originally Posted by beargrowlz

Dola.

Can someone think of any other possible reason why Narc was killed last night aside from those reasons I listed?

To get Barkeep to vote for me?

[beargrowlz]

Originally Posted by st.cronin

To get Barkeep to vote for me?

For some reason Cronin, you haven't had any trouble attracting votes.

(I'm still not really certain why)

Alan, does this stop being true after Day 1?

Basically only bad players want experienced players voted out on day 1!

Are bad guys likely to leave experienced good guys alone after the first day and go after relative newbies unless that newbie is onto something?

If so, why does the dynamic change after day 1?

[beargrowlz]

Are bad guys likely to leave experienced good guys alone after the first day and go after relative newbies unless that newbie is onto something?

What I meant to ask was, are bad guys really likely to leave experienced good players alone after day 1 and go after relative newbies?

Or does it generally require the newb to be onto someone or something?

And if the dynamic does change, why do you think it does?

[Alan T]

No, I only meant that in day 1 because its the only day you have zero information to go on. So its all random. I find players who want to vote out other people that could be a valuable addition to our team for no reason are the most wolfish on day 1.

After day 1, things change and you have more information to work with.

[beargrowlz]

Welp, no early vote from me today.

I'll wait and see if the info from the lie detector gets made public before I vote.

My inclination is to vote for someone Narc was suspicious of (which ironically enough, includes me).

That being said, at some point we probably do need to discuss the players flying under the radar so to speak and not posting much.

[path12]

Lathum, is it possible for a spy to get the lie detector?