Werewolf CLIX- Haunted Hotel

[britrock88]

Vote Count:

3 Narcizo - Narcizo (385), PackerFanatic (389), EagleFan (392)
1 EagleFan - britrock88 (400)

[britrock88]

I think it's worth pointing out that EF has been coming after me a smidge, by vote and by reference to a comment I made about clap dying as the martyr. It may be presumptuous for me to say, but I think I'm the thought leader among the surviving villagers at this point. Dubiousness of what I'm seeing is... dubious.

(Also, holy sh!t, I'm leading the post count?)

[britrock88]

Originally Posted by britrock88

time	post	voter	votee	count
02:25	247	Narcizo	Lathum	1
02:38	248	Danny	PF	1
07:21	252	EF	brit	1
07:54	253	bullet	Danny	1
12:00	258	brit	EF	1
12:04	259	Lathum	EF	2
12:22	260	murra5y	Danny	2
12:45	262	murra5y	xDanny	1
			Lathum	2
14:20	276	Lathum	xEF	1
			Narcizo	1
14:35	288	brit	xEF	-
			Narcizo	2
14:42	292	EF	xbrit	-
			Lathum	3
15:25	307	Lathum	xNarc	1
			Danny	2
19:23	317	CR	Lathum	4
19:41	329	brit	xNarc	-
			Danny	3
19:51	336	Danny	xPF	-
			Lathum	5
19:54	341	murra5y	xLathum	4
			Danny	4

That's about as much color as I've seen on a vote table.

Re-posting for the new page.

[britrock88]

Originally Posted by Narcizo

Day One

11:57 #39 Danny votes Claphamsa (1)
12:14 #41 britrock votes Danny (1)
02:16 #44 Narcizo votes mauchow (1)
08:05 #46 mauchow votes narcizo (1)
08:49 #48 Packer votes mauchow (2)
09:14 #50 mauchow unvotes narcizo (0), votes Packers (1)
09:49 #54 Danny unvotes Clap (0)
11:42 #59 Autumn votes bulletsponge (1)
12:42 #63 murra5y votes Eaglefan (1)
13:13 #66 Danny votes Eaglefan (2)
13:24 #68 Clap votes Autumn (1)

13:24 #69 bulletsponge votes mauchow (3)
13:33 #72 Lathum votes mauchow (4)
13:43 #73 Narcizo unvotes mauchow (3), votes bulletsponge (2)
14:19 #74 Bulletsponge unvotes mauchow (2), votes Narcizo (1)
17:06 #82 fontisian votes Lathum (1)
18:25 #92 Eaglefan votes Lathum (2)
20:27 #104 Autumn unvotes Bullet (1), votes mauchow (3)
20:38 #113 Chief Rum votes Bullet (2)
20:41 #116 fontisian unvotes Lathum (1), votes Eagle (3)
20:45 #118 Eagle unvotes Lathum (0), votes bullet (3)
20:58 #127 Danny unvotes Eagle (2), votes mau (4)
21:00 #129 fontisian unvotes Eagle (1), votes mau (5)

mauchow 5 - Packerfanatic (48), Lathum (72), Autumn (104), Danny (127), fontisian (129)
bulletsponge 3 - Narcizo (73), Chief Rum (113), EagleFan(118)
Packerfanatic 1 - mauchow (50)
Eaglefan 1 - murra5y (63)
Autumn 1 - claphamsa (68)
Narcizo 1 - bulletsponge (74)
Danny 1 - britrock (41)

Originally Posted by Narcizo

Day Two

02:54 #151 Narcizo votes Packers (1)
07:52 #154 Eagles votes brit (1)
08:08 #155 Lathum votes Eagles (1)
09:07 #156 Packers votes Autumn (1)
09:09 #158 Bullet votes Eagles (2)
10:15 #162 Brit votes Autumn (2)
13:22 #170 Danny votes Eagles (3)
13:28 #172 Claphamsa votes Danny (1)

14:16 #182 Autumn votes Narcizo (1)
14:16 #183 murra5y votes Autumn (3)
14:57 #189 murra5y unvotes Autumn (2), votes Danny (2)
15:15 #190 Eagles unvotes brit (0), votes Danny (3)
15:29 #191 Narcizo unvotes Packers (0), votes Autumn (3)
19:15 #203 Chief Rum votes Autumn (4)
20:30 #217 Autumn unvotes narcizo (0), votes Eagles (4)
20:34 #223 Eagles unvotes Danny (2), votes Autumn (5)

Autumn 5 - Packers (156), Britrock (162), Narcizo (191), Chief Rum (203), Eagles (223)
Eagles 4 - Lathum (155), Bullet (158), Danny (170), Autumn (217)
Danny 2 - Claphamsa (172), murra5y (189)

For edification's sake, with color-allegiances updated.

[britrock88]

I see that Danny votes EF into the lead early on each of D1 and D2. Yet, for some reason, that hits me as something coordinated to lay an excuse for later in the game.

[britrock88]

The potential trouble I see is that if the second wolf is NOT EagleFan, then it'll be hard to distinguish among PF, CR, and murra5y, who have all been pretty quiet.

[britrock88]

Though the current vote count is even more troubling.

[murrayyyyy]

I don't think it's EF Brit, Danny voted for him two days in a row.

[murrayyyyy]

vote chief rum

Just a feeling.

[Chief Rum]

Don't we need to vote on more than feelings at this point? That said, I get that I am very far from being cleared.

Since I know I am a villager, I can do some different analysis, because I can take one of the unknowns off of the board (myself). You all will have to adjust your analyses appropriately, of course.

The remaining unknowns (presuming Narc is the cultist and giving me the pass) are murrayyyyy, brit, EF and PF.

On Day One, Danny voted for mauchow over bullet. PF also voted for mauchow. I don't see the wolves going on the same guy on Day One when the other guy is also a villager to them. So that is a big up for PF being a villager.

murrayyyyyy put Danny into the vote mix last night with six minutes to go, forcing the tie. That is a pretty ballsy move for a wolf. The problem is, I have seen murrayyyy play in games and behind the scenes and he is by nature abit of a gambler. He would do that move as a wolf, even not knowing the tie rules. But he and Danny also followed each other on EF votes on Day One, some 30 minutes apart. One or the other, I buy a gambling set of wolves doing, but not both. So that is a positive for murrayyyyy as a villager.

So for me right now I am leaning toward EF versus brit, and that is not an easy call.

[murrayyyyy]

How about this Chief and Brit? (since I'm seen as a gambler)

With Narc putting his vote on himself and it's 3 votes on him right now, do we put 3 votes one of the other people who voted for him and play chicken with them not wanting a tie vote?

[murrayyyyy]

wait, my count was off, that only works if we are on both wolves.

[EagleFan]

I have no problem with us going elsewhere but in most cases I would say get rid of the cultist while we can to cut down any potential voting shenanigans. In this case Narc won't pose a deadline problem for us.

In ANY other case I would say get rid of the cultist since we could be at end game with a bad lynch and allowing the cultist to potentially sway the vote with a late shift would be a BAD play. With Narc being the cultist it pretty much eliminates that possibility.

[EagleFan]

I actually thought through the potential tie idea last night. Problem is that we still need that other person to be the wolf.

Especially since we don't know for certain that the tie mechanic will always result in both being lynched. A couple games back we had a tie mechanic that was random and had a different outcome each time so it wouldn't be unheard of for that to be the case here.

[britrock88]

Still thinking about how I feel about what you all have said. But I'll support any non-Narc candidate over Narc.

Unvote EagleFan
Vote Chief Rum

[britrock88]

Vote Count:

3 Narcizo - Narcizo (385), PackerFanatic (389), EagleFan (392)
2 Chief Rum - murrayyyyy, (409), britrock88 (415)

[Narcizo]

If only there was some sort of device that could ensure you wake up at a certain time. I'm sure there would be a market for such a device. I think those scientific boffins should get cracking and fill the gap in the market. I'm sure there's some money in it for them. You could call it a Waking Time Mechanism or something - I'm sure those wacky marketing guys could come up with a better name.

[Chief Rum]

Can someone make a case against me?

Not saying there isn't one, but I know a vote for me is a loss for the village, so I would like to see more justification from those voting me. If a good case can be made, I completely understand.

[britrock88]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

Can someone make a case against me?

Not saying there isn't one, but I know a vote for me is a loss for the village, so I would like to see more justification from those voting me. If a good case can be made, I completely understand.

Your only "bad" vote was putting a 4th vote on Lathum yesterday after bullet, Lathum, and I had all balked at Narc's reveal.

murra5y, what leads you to Chief? (Remember that I'm following him onto you, Chief, because I categorically reject the idea of voting for Narcizo.)

[britrock88]

Originally Posted by EagleFan

Looks like a slam dunk for today. Unless there is a good argument for going ghost hunting today. Pretty much 6 of one, half dozen of the other. Either way it looks like we have just one chance to get it right and a runaway vote today won't tell us anything.

This continues to trouble me. The way we get 1 chance is by lynching Narc. That takes us from 4:1:1 to 4:1; the NK takes us to 3:1. A bad lynch and an NK get us to 1:1 in that case.

Voting ANYONE OTHER THAN Narcizo gives us 2 chances. Even if we miss, we'll be at 3:1:1 after the lynch, and the NK will take us to 2:1:1. Now, the village total and the baddy total for voting purposes will match, but the chances that an unknown tie-breaking mechanism give us have to be better than zero. Thus, this is categorically better.

[britrock88]

...categorically. For good measure.

[britrock88]

Or, more simply--why would Narc vote himself if it were good for the village?

[murrayyyyy]

I really don't know what to do with the vote. Narc has 3 and if they don't move everything else is academic. I went thru the day 3 list and picked a named based off who voted for Lathum.

D2 doesn't help much because I was the only one who wasn't on the body. EF was last so I could switch to him. I could see PF because he is the only one Narc voted for who isn't dead. (D2)

If you want to switch back Brit, I'm cool and we can go with EF but leaves the late switch if we are wrong to lose the game I think.

We kill a villager on accident and they get night kill it's 2-1-1, they vote stalemate tomorrow and get a night kill to win.

Do we have a choice but to not vote Narc?

[murrayyyyy]

But you assume we don't lose 2 on a tie tonight, correct? That's the part that worries me Brit, if we leave it up to a tie then we could lose 2 villagers tonight and game be over if we miss with the pick.

[britrock88]

Losing 2 villagers and Narc would leave us at 2:1, if a tie resulted in another double kill.

As for getting 3 votes onto someone other than Narc (assuming neither of PF and EF move), we need to convince Chief to vote for one of them with us.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by murrayyyyy

But you assume we don't lose 2 on a tie tonight, correct? That's the part that worries me Brit, if we leave it up to a tie then we could lose 2 villagers tonight and game be over if we miss with the pick.

So vote for one sure villager instead? You don't currently have a wolf up for vote, presuming Narc isn't playing some over the top game, as a wolf hiding as the cultist.

I have been leaning toward EF for a bit now, and that seems to be the name that will get some purchase, so that's where my vote is going.

VOTE EAGLEFAN

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by britrock88

Losing 2 villagers and Narc would leave us at 2:1, if a tie resulted in another double kill.

As for getting 3 votes onto someone other than Narc (assuming neither of PF and EF move), we need to convince Chief to vote for one of them with us.

That's easy to do, considering I noted earlier I believe Narc is the cultist and a bad choice for vote.

What I can't get behind is a vote on me (of course).

[britrock88]

Pending further thinking...

Unvote Chief Rum
Vote EagleFan

[murrayyyyy]

Oh well, I'm game...

Unvote Chief Rum
Vote EagleFan

[EagleFan]

So you want to lose the game tonight I guess? Well, Narc and one of you won't be losing the game.

You are letting a wolf run the show.

unvote Narc

vote Chief

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by EagleFan

So you want to lose the game tonight I guess? Well, Narc and one of you won't be losing the game.

You are letting a wolf run the show.

unvote Narc

vote Chief

I am guessing from your vote that I am said wolf?

So what is your case for me then?

[EagleFan]

My case is Chief wolf 1.0.

He plays UTR until late in the game when he can try to steer the vote. This game is right by that book.

[EagleFan]

Day 1; Chief brings bullet into the mix with his vote.

Day 2; Chief helps take the vote from me and Danny to me and Autumn. Conveniently adds another villager to the mix.

[EagleFan]

I'll be around to discuss; checking in and out.

[EagleFan]

[EagleFan]

[EagleFan]

Anywho...

I'll check back closer to deadline.

[EagleFan]

Here wolfy wolfy... here boy...

[EagleFan]

Well played Chief. You earned the win. Either that or well played UTR. My money is on the first statement though.

[Chief Rum]

Okay, I think we're making a mistake.

[murrayyyyy]

well who do you think it is?

[murrayyyyy]

I'm open to change and PF and brit aren't around.

[murrayyyyy]

is it that crazy to think that PF could be a wolf and on the dead body all three times?

[Chief Rum]

I think britrock is the other wolf.

Danny kept his vote on EF all day on D2 when EF was almost lynched over Autumn 4-5. That's a very risky move.

Brit voted Danny early on D1 and kept it there all day. No risk. Danny was not a lynch target, so it was a trust gaining vote.

Then when Lathum got lynched D3, brit didn't push Danny up to 3 until I pushed Lathum up to 4. And that was with Danny with a vote switch in his back pocket. Again, no risk.

[murrayyyyy]

PF is the only person Narc voted for who isn't dead.

[Chief Rum]

UNVOTE EAGLEFAN

VOTE BRITROCK

[murrayyyyy]

It could be Brit, after all he made a public mocking for Narc to make the daily chart once we determined him. But why would he expose the Cultist?

[murrayyyyy]

up to you EF, I just know I have to vote to keep Narc alive...

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by murrayyyyy

PF is the only person Narc voted for who isn't dead.

I still don't think you or PF are wolves based on what I was saying earlier. I always thought it was EF or brit. I let brit's convo steering move me.toward EF. But i think the evidence is stronger for brit as a wolf than EF.

[EagleFan]

I am in the middle of a virus scan but will try to keep up on my phone. Started hearing advertisements in the background.