Werewolf CXXVIII - The Original Werewolves - VILLAGERS WIN

[Danny]

Originally Posted by Lathum

Danny, why did you scan the two people you did?

I scanned dward day 1 because there was nothing to go on at that point and this is his first game. I knew he would not be an early lynch or night kill and would be tough to read having never played with him.

Last night I scanned Mau because I didn't like his votes from day 1 or day 2. And a couple things from day 1 pinged me a little bit. And again, I figured very little chance he would be nightkilled. Who knew that on day 2, we'd only have one night kill so far.

[Danny]

Originally Posted by Lathum

Really?

I think Jackal looks pretty bad. Damning vote on Zinto D1 and D2 had 2 known villagers voting for him, which makes him look bad if the wolves are spreading things out.

I originally had my vote on Jackal as well, so that means three known villagers were the only ones on him. That said, two uncleared players also voted him day 1.

[Danny]

Also keep in mind that while Dward and Mau are not wolves, one of them could still be the cultist. So don't trust them and their potential thoughts completely.

[bhlloy]

I think with the NK of mckerney, who was first vote on Jackal both times plus the vote on Zinto he definitely looks really bad. Might just be unfortunate circumstance or the wolves trying to put him in a bad light, but I think we need to find out one way or the other. I was kinda hoping he'd have been your scan last night Danny, but I always suspect mau from his posts so I can't fault that either.

My other wierd vibe I'm getting is BK, but I've never played a game with him before so it could be nothing.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by Danny

Thanks Jag, updated now with my scans. There is no cunning wolf, so we know they're good.

Day 1

5 Zinto - JAG (52), Darth Vilus (81), saldana (93), dwardzala (94), The Jackal (128)
3 JAG - Lathum (61), mauboy (84), Danny (96)
3 The Jackal - mckerney (66), Barkeep49 (82), bhlloy (85)
2 Darth Vilus - Zinto (70), Chief Rum (83)
1 mckerney - J23 (78)

Day 2

4 Darth Vilus - The Jackal (180), J23 (190), Chief Rum (232), saldana (250)
2 JAG - Lathum (175), Danny (278)
2 Danny - Barkeep49 (203), dwardzala (212)
2 The Jackal - mckerney (209), mauboy1 (240)
2 Saldana - JAG (223), Darth Vilus (273)

OK, so I am seriously starting to wonder if Danny is making some kind of crazy play here.

His scan choices are just so odd. He hasn't once scanned a player who has had one single vote for them. IT seems to me as seer I would want to scan one of the people who had a lot of votes on them and was involved in a close race.

[Lathum]

dola- just read his explanation, which is about what I thought he would say. For now we have to trust Danny and his scans, but if there is a counter reveal to be made, I think today is the day to do it.

[Danny]

Originally Posted by Lathum

OK, so I am seriously starting to wonder if Danny is making some kind of crazy play here.

His scan choices are just so odd. He hasn't once scanned a player who has had one single vote for them. IT seems to me as seer I would want to scan one of the people who had a lot of votes on them and was involved in a close race.

The problem with choosing a player with votes from yesterday is that the votes were so spread out. Even if I scanned one, there were three other players with votes. It's not like we had DV up against another main candidate. So I decided to go with the player I thought most likely to be a wolf.

[Danny]

Oh and crazy play? I would have been giving you two wolves for basically nothing as the seer could have just revealed.

[Danny]

Though looking back, I probably should have gone with Jag or Jackal as they did get votes from day 1 as well. I actually fell asleep watching the tournament and on the way from the couch to the bed sent in my scan request, so my choice was not the most analyzed.

[The Jackal]

My votes look pretty poor, I guess the only thing I can say for myself is if I was a wolf my votes would look much better. I understand if you think I'm the way to go here, but I'm not roled or anything and hopefully Danny can get two more scans in, so lynching me shouldn't be a big problem.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by Danny

The problem with choosing a player with votes from yesterday is that the votes were so spread out. Even if I scanned one, there were three other players with votes. It's not like we had DV up against another main candidate. So I decided to go with the player I thought most likely to be a wolf.

Obviously yesterday was a toss away, but there were plenty of players to chose from who had multiple votes D1 and D2. I am 99% sure you are on the level, but just trying to keep all possibilities open.

[The Jackal]

I'm going to go with BK. I'm torn between him and sal, thinking that if sal was a wolf it would make some sense for both him and J to be on DV day two since sal was on the block. However, BK has come from an interesting angle this game, as far as I can remember he's mostly just been asking questions about things that other people are saying, instead of introducing much of his own thoughts into the equation.

VOTE BK

[The Jackal]

I'd say keep me alive and scan me tonight, but you're not going to catch a wolf that way, so scan someone else. I'll take a hit if need be. There's not much I can say in my defense except that I was mostly just voting for DV because he was being quiet.

[JAG]

Lathum, the reason I don't suspect Jackal so much was his reaction to events yesterday. He came across as trying to piece things together and not close himself off to all options. I think Danny said something to this effect yesterday. His switch D1 from DV to Zinto doesn't make a lot of sense as a wolf either. Every WW game there are villagers with bad votes and with so many villagers on the block, I think it's a mistake to go solely off voting record with other useful evidence.

I also like his choice of suspect, as the group I was wondering about included Mau (thanks for clearing that up), dwardzala (ditto), BK, and sal. Sal I was wondering about as a cultist since he hasn't had a problem voting off the top villagers and his fairly ridiculous reasoning for a vote on me makes me wonder if he's just out there trying to draw attention. So, not that I'm saying it should be a runaway on BK, but he's my top suspect and this is getting my vote.

Vote Barkeep

[JAG]

Originally Posted by Lathum

dola- just read his explanation, which is about what I thought he would say. For now we have to trust Danny and his scans, but if there is a counter reveal to be made, I think today is the day to do it.

Agreed, but I rate that as highly unlikely. Why would another wolf or cultist give us a wolf that wasn't even in serious consideration when the real seer can easily disprove what Danny is saying?

[bhlloy]

Well I don't see how we can let the person with the most questionable voting record skate, even if this isn't the overall direction we end up going.

Vote Jackal

[JAG]

Of the 6 remaining unknowns (7 for those who have been scanned / Danny), it appears unlikely BK and bhlloy would both be wolves with their voting on D1, both on Jackal and reasonably close together. I feel fairly decently our remaining wolves will be among saldana, BK, CR, and bhlloy.

[The Jackal]

Originally Posted by bhlloy

Well I don't see how we can let the person with the most questionable voting record skate, even if this isn't the overall direction we end up going.

Vote Jackal

I'm not sure how I'm the most questionable record without throwing other people's names into it. Sal voted for the same two villagers I did. BK voted for the seer and me (only I can know that I'm a villager, but still). CR voted for DV twice.

At least I've actually been participating in the discussion, trying to sort through what happened yesterday and such. Wolves usually have good voting records, because they can place their votes in ways that won't look suspicious, unless of course one of their compatriots is in danger, which is how we catch them. But you can't really say that either of my votes had any kind of saving another player notion behind them, except for voting DV/Zinto on D1 just to save myself.

[Lathum]

Vote Jag

I just can't shake this feeling about him. Plus, looking through D1 and D2 votes he hasn't had a wolf vote for him.

[JAG]

Originally Posted by Lathum

Vote Jag

I just can't shake this feeling about him. Plus, looking through D1 and D2 votes he hasn't had a wolf vote for him.

You're going to look wrong for your crusade if I am lynched. You're also discounting that saldana was voting for me D2 before he moved his vote in self-defense. Not to say he's a guaranteed wolf, but a person of interest at least.

[mauchow]

I think I'm leaning jag or jackal myself. I've had small gut feelings on them more than anybody for the first few days. I hate to piggy back but I know lathum is a damn good player so his vote is where I'll go for now.

vote jag

Also... how the hell do I always come across as wolf in my posts. In the last four games now I was a villager for three of them and people thought me to be suspicious of a wolf in every single one. I guess if I sound like a villager in the future I'll be a wolf. At least I'm without a role this time so I wont feel terrible if I die this time around.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by JAG

You're going to look wrong for your crusade if I am lynched. You're also discounting that saldana was voting for me D2 before he moved his vote in self-defense. Not to say he's a guaranteed wolf, but a person of interest at least.

Wouldn't be the first time or the last time

[JAG]

Originally Posted by Lathum

Wouldn't be the first time or the last time

Sure, that was just my knee-jerk reaction, but if you're a villager, which I feel like you are, it wont help us after today when you get suspicion as a result.

Can you explain your feeling of why you think I'm a wolf? I feel like my voting is at least average, unless Jackal is a wolf and/or Saldana is a villager. But as a wolf I introduce sal as a candidate with at least two other villagers on the block D2? I just fail to see how I can be the best voting option for today.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by JAG

Sure, that was just my knee-jerk reaction, but if you're a villager, which I feel like you are, it wont help us after today when you get suspicion as a result.

Can you explain your feeling of why you think I'm a wolf? I feel like my voting is at least average, unless Jackal is a wolf and/or Saldana is a villager. But as a wolf I introduce sal as a candidate with at least two other villagers on the block D2? I just fail to see how I can be the best voting option for today.

Mainly because as things lie you havent had a wolf vote on you yet. In a close D1 vote you would think the wolves would have had some for of coordinated vote. The fact that not a single wolf was on you speaks to me.

[Lathum]

as for suspicion that is the nature of the game. I have never played the game worried that my vote will reflect poorly on me. It is what it is, if I am wrong then I'll accept the consequences. Danny can scan me if he likes, although I think there would be better scan candidates at this time.

[JAG]

Originally Posted by Lathum

Mainly because as things lie you havent had a wolf vote on you yet. In a close D1 vote you would think the wolves would have had some for of coordinated vote. The fact that not a single wolf was on you speaks to me.

The only known wolf was the sole vote on a candidate. If we are assuming there are three wolves and that the other two would split up (I'm assuming Jackal is a villager and so it was an open vote for them), that means two of the four candidates that day wouldn't have a wolf vote for them by default. Even if you assume say Jackal was a wolf and they split up onto the other two candidates, that would still mean the third candidate wouldn't have a wolf vote on them. I just don't think that's a great case.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by JAG

The only known wolf was the sole vote on a candidate. If we are assuming there are three wolves and that the other two would split up (I'm assuming Jackal is a villager and so it was an open vote for them), that means two of the four candidates that day wouldn't have a wolf vote for them by default. Even if you assume say Jackal was a wolf and they split up onto the other two candidates, that would still mean the third candidate wouldn't have a wolf vote on them. I just don't think that's a great case.

but I can only go by what I know. I know I am not a wolf and can safely assume Danny isn't one. Mau has also been cleared as a villager.

[JAG]

Originally Posted by Lathum

but I can only go by what I know. I know I am not a wolf and can safely assume Danny isn't one. Mau has also been cleared as a villager.

I'm not arguing there was or wasn't a wolf on me. I'm saying with so many candidates and so few wolves, I don't see that that can be a reliable indicator that I am a wolf. For argument's sake, if I was a wolf and the other wasn't voting for me or Zonto who I voted for, there would still be one other villager with no wolves voting them. If there were no wolves receiving votes D1 (again, as I suspect), there would be two villagers with no wolves voting for them, or three if they bunched their votes.

[Autumn]

Vote count as of post 428

2 Barkeep49 - The Jackal (412), JAG (414)
1 The Jackal - bhlloy (416)
2 JAG - Lathum (419), mauboy (421)

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by JAG

I'm not arguing there was or wasn't a wolf on me. I'm saying with so many candidates and so few wolves, I don't see that that can be a reliable indicator that I am a wolf. For argument's sake, if I was a wolf and the other wasn't voting for me or Zonto who I voted for, there would still be one other villager with no wolves voting them. If there were no wolves receiving votes D1 (again, as I suspect), there would be two villagers with no wolves voting for them, or three if they bunched their votes.

Sure there could be, but I don't know anything about those people. What I do know is not one wolf has voted you and left it there. And that intrigues me.

[Autumn]

We're going to have friends over tonight and so it's likely I will not be around at deadline. I can either bump deadline until later in the night (11 or 12) or just keep it the same and run it whenever I can.

[JAG]

Alrighty.

[JAG]

My preference would be the same deadline, but if the majority don't want it, don't let me stand in their way.

[The Jackal]

I'd say just keep the deadlines, and run them when you can.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by The Jackal

I'd say just keep the deadlines, and run them when you can.

This

[JAG]

I'm surprised it's so quiet today, I figured this would be the biggest day for activity yet. Since no one else is speaking up....

Originally Posted by mauboy1

I think I'm leaning jag or jackal myself. I've had small gut feelings on them more than anybody for the first few days. I hate to piggy back but I know lathum is a damn good player so his vote is where I'll go for now.

vote jag

Also... how the hell do I always come across as wolf in my posts. In the last four games now I was a villager for three of them and people thought me to be suspicious of a wolf in every single one. I guess if I sound like a villager in the future I'll be a wolf. At least I'm without a role this time so I wont feel terrible if I die this time around.

Mau, out of curiosity, why Jackal and I vs. the other unknowns? Is it pure gut (other than partially following Lathum for choosing between us) or are there tangible factors you can point to?

[JAG]

Unvote BK

Decided I'm going to wait to hear from sal, CR, and BK before voting. bhlloy's vote and explanation on Jackal was weak and a voice in my head keeps telling me to vote sal.

[Chief Rum]

I am unfortunately fairly busy at work, thus my lack of participation so far.

I don't really have much to offer so far. I saw the same things Danny did on mau, and I am glad he scanned him. I understand where Lahtum is coming from on JAG, but I think he's reaching. BK is playing the way he always does, so while he certainly can receive votes, it would make more sense if it was less for his style and more for his actions.

I have to think some more before coming up with a vote.

[The Jackal]

Originally Posted by JAG

Unvote BK

Decided I'm going to wait to hear from sal, CR, and BK before voting. bhlloy's vote and explanation on Jackal was weak and a voice in my head keeps telling me to vote sal.

I would be just as willing to vote bhl as I was BK, I agree with your earlier assessment that they are unlikely to both be wolves.

[saldana]

Originally Posted by JAG

Unvote BK

Decided I'm going to wait to hear from sal, CR, and BK before voting. bhlloy's vote and explanation on Jackal was weak and a voice in my head keeps telling me to vote sal.

i really dont have alot to say, i probably shouldnt have even played this game with my work situation what it currently is. (i am going to be out of town all week next week)

i have been trying to follow along, and was likely going to either vote for you (jag) or jackal, but since you are apparently giving me the benefit of the doubt, i will pay you the same courtesy

vote jackal

[JAG]

Originally Posted by The Jackal

I would be just as willing to vote bhl as I was BK, I agree with your earlier assessment that they are unlikely to both be wolves.

What are your thoughts on sal? I am pretty sure after thinking about it more that the reason I want to vote him is because I know he voted for three villagers the first two days, that only villagers voted for him when he was on the block, and because of his post claiming I "tried to get him lynched" when I mentioned two others in the same post and only said he should be a vote target if you thought there was a wolf on the block D1. Whereas for bhlloy, I only have his post today to really be suspicious of him since he missed the D2 voting (which is fine, he was coming back from Europe I think).

I guess even though I said I'd wait that I don't think I'm going to find better evidence for a wolf than with sal.

Vote saldana

[JAG]

[quote=saldana;2446486]i really dont have alot to say, i probably shouldnt have even played this game with my work situation what it currently is. (i am going to be out of town all week next week)

i have been trying to follow along, and was likely going to either vote for you (jag) or jackal, but since you are apparently giving me the benefit of the doubt, i will pay you the same courtesy

vote jackal

FWIW, I wrote my last post before seeing yours, so feel free to change your vote to me now that I didn't give you benefit of the doubt after all.

[The Jackal]

I think it's very possible sal is the cultist, but I think there's a good shot he's a wolf as well. And since he decided to vote for me anyways..

UNVOTE BK
VOTE SALDANA

[JAG]

Oops, missed a tag there.

[Autumn]

Vote count as of post 444

2 The Jackal - bhlloy (416), saldana (440)
2 JAG - Lathum (419), mauboy (421)
2 saldana - JAG (441), The Jackal (443)

[JAG]

And yes, there is some irony in using the same argument Lathum is using against me as part of my evidence chain, but as far as I can tell that's Lathum's only reason whereas for me it's one of a few pieces.

[bhlloy]

I'm pretty busy at work and yeah I was travelling on Wednesday so didn't get a chance to vote. I'm leaning away from Jackal and towards Sal with some of the recent discussion, but I'd like to take a look in more detail when I get home.

[Barkeep49]

Originally Posted by Lathum

dola- just read his explanation, which is about what I thought he would say. For now we have to trust Danny and his scans, but if there is a counter reveal to be made, I think today is the day to do it.

I have most of today to catch up but is this serious? I can't construct a logical scenario where the wolves throw one of their own under the bus with the real seer still out there.

[Barkeep49]

Vote Jackal

Something's seemed off about him since Day 1. He's had attention on him but skated through, which could no doubt be thanks to some wolf helpfulness.

[The Jackal]

Originally Posted by Barkeep49

Vote Jackal

Something's seemed off about him since Day 1. He's had attention on him but skated through, which could no doubt be thanks to some wolf helpfulness.

Something seemed off? How about the vote you put on me for reasoning that was supposed to be for Autumn.

The vote I picked up from mckerney was via my fun roleplay.

What has seemed off?