FOFC GroupThink 2023: We take over the Detroit Lions

[Honolulu_Blue]

Jameson Williams hurt his hamstring and won't likely practice or play again until after his suspension.

The vibes around this guy just continue to really stink.

He's only 22 and has played a handful of games. So, it's not bust territory yet, but all signs seem to be pointing in that direction.

It's, also, not great given that WR is a very thin position for the Lions. It's St. Brown and then... not too much that strikes fear into the hearts of anyone.

[thesloppy]

Originally Posted by Honolulu_Blue

Jameson Williams hurt his hamstring and won't likely practice or play again until after his suspension.

The vibes around this guy just continue to really stink.

He's only 22 and has played a handful of games. So, it's not bust territory yet, but all signs seem to be pointing in that direction.

Yeah, I feel like pretty much any/every news item I've read about Jamo over the past two years has been negative, even when it's been between the lines. For example after the Bridgewater signing I read a couple articles impying that Jamo was now his project and he was going to make him hate him by logging extra practice hours....but the implication that he isn't motivated to practice hard on his own made more impact on me than the attempted positive spin.

[QuikSand]

Originally Posted by Honolulu_Blue

Wide receiver depth addressed!

We got ourselves Denzel Mims for a conditional 6th rounder and a 7th rounder. A potential reclamation project of a former 2nd rounder or another waste of late round picks for a player who would have just been cut, because he’s not good (see, also, kicker Riley Patterson). Hoping for the former, betting on the latter.

alas, waived/injured

sounds like it just isn't happening for him

[thesloppy]

Interested to see this team finally get some real action tonight...of course I'm a Lions fan in the first place, so I was already highly invested & excited for this game.

I feel like overall the Lions had a great offseason on paper, and followed a lot of the same thoughts that we had in here. The defense seems vastly improved in almost all positions, but I suppose tonight will certainly serve as a test. Like most of the internet there was some freaking out over the draft in here, but in retrospect that's only part of the offseason and although there was much gnashing of teeth about HOW they got them, the Lions actually a fair amount of players that we thought stuck out as culture fits (Branch and Campbell primarily)


One place that I think Holmes threw us and everybody else for a loop was RB. Rejecting Jamaal Williams and signing Montgomery was only the first piece of that surprise & following that up by drafting Gibbs was another head scratcher, pouring lots of capital and new faces into a position that was actually one of the strengths last year. Will be interesting to finally see how those pieces fit tonight. Gibbs made plenty of splash in camp & joint practices but they've seemingly kept Montgomery entirely under wraps.

I'm also interested to see how WR2-4 shakes out. Almost every receiver after St. Brown has a question mark above their head. Someone needs to show up & it can be as either a possession guy or a deep threat, but a consistent second threat at receiver would help this team a lot & that seems like one of the last potential holes that the Lions left on paper this off-season.

I hope to see that defensive line prosper, both from the added experience & an improved 2nd and 3rd level defense.

What are you all looking for tonight?

[albionmoonlight]

This team needs Jameson Williams. No deep threats to scare defenses. Take St. Brown out of the game, and it’s too easy.

[Solecismic]

Quite a road statement to open the season. Holding Mahomes to 21-39-226-2-1 and no touchdowns in the second half is a real accomplishment. Though some will point out his receivers did him no favors and Kelce was on the bench.

Goff might be the guy. How much of the knock on him comes from Belichick thoroughly solving him in the Super Bowl when he was still new in the league?

[thesloppy]

Love to see the win, let's go! Most of those 4 early draft picks showed out for at least a moment or two.

Originally Posted by Solecismic

Goff might be the guy. How much of the knock on him comes from Belichick thoroughly solving him in the Super Bowl when he was still new in the league?

Yeah, I think there will always be a part of me that is convinced Goff is a liability, and we've seen how he can fall apart under pressure, yet (somewhat to your point) what could I want from an NFL quarterback that Jared Goff hasn't proven he can do? He's already been all the way through the playoffs to the super bowl, he's been deadly accurate, riding the longest current without-an-interception streak in the league, he is helping St Brown develop immediately, has lifted the rest of the Lions mediocre WRs and has a synergy with the OL that has allowed him & them to play to the best of their abilities. He obviously can't run for shit, even well behind Matt Stafford's standard, but that seems like a faint complaint considering how well he's otherwise played in Detroit.

I have to give him credit for turning from albatross into apparent stud, with the added challenge level of doing so in Detroit, where folks have been somewhat conditioned to embrace and enable QB failure.

[thesloppy]

[Bobble]

Originally Posted by Solecismic

Though some will point out ... Kelce was on the bench.

You mean like Tirico throwing an asterisk on the win? Jones and Kelce out for the chefs but also WR-Jamo and CB-Moseley out for the Lions. And, one could argue that we just saw that WR and CB being the weakest groups for the Lions.

The Toney drops (Is it a deep cut if I say, "Toney, Toney, Toney, has done it again. Feels good") were atrocious but not, in my mind, more atrocious than letting the left tackle get a head start in pass protection every time.

Good win for the Lions.

[Brian Swartz]

Something something history is made by those who show up.

[albionmoonlight]

And it isn't all bad luck for the Chiefs. It is a natural consequence of how they are building their team.

They have to pay Pat Mahomes. So they have less cap space. So they have to play hardball with Chris Jones. And they can't build depth behind Kelce.

31 other teams would want the "problem" of having Mahomes as your QB and having to scrimp and save elsewhere on the cap. But it is part of how that team is built now, and it shouldn't be treated as some kind of anomaly.

[JPhillips]

Kelce is their big receiver and without him, they are clearly without much weaponry. Toney has the talent to be a good second option or first when Kelce is hurt, but he was terrible last night. Without Kelce they have a bunch of third and fourth recievers.

[Honolulu_Blue]

So, if Mike Evans doesn’t get an extension from Tampa, which it sounds like he won’t, and Tampa is as bad as everyone thinks they could be with Bakes and Trask as the QB options, doesn’t a trade where the Lions flip a pick to Tampa for Mike Evans make a ton of sense? He’s exactly the type of receiver they need.

[albionmoonlight]

I think that Tampa not extending Evans by now is the writing on that wall. He is, IMO, more likely than not to be traded.

What's fair value? A 2nd rounder?

[Solecismic]

It's a strange world where Baker Mayfield is considered on the way out and Daniel Jones is getting $40 million for checking down five times for every pick Mayfield throws.

Which is not to say Mayfield is that tier 2/3 we talked about earlier. The 2020 season (legit tier-2 numbers) seems like the outlier rather than the breakout. But I don't see a guy like Jones giving you much of a chance of doing more than compiling an impressive set of three-and-outs against a good defense.

[QuikSand]

Originally Posted by Bobble

(Is it a deep cut if I say, "Toney, Toney, Toney, has done it again. Feels good")

i liked it

[QuikSand]

Originally Posted by Solecismic

It's a strange world where Baker Mayfield is considered on the way out and Daniel Jones is getting $40 million for checking down five times for every pick Mayfield throws.

Which is not to say Mayfield is that tier 2/3 we talked about earlier. The 2020 season (legit tier-2 numbers) seems like the outlier rather than the breakout. But I don't see a guy like Jones giving you much of a chance of doing more than compiling an impressive set of three-and-outs against a good defense.

Fascinating...the PFF grades for the two players have them really far apart, more or less in keeping with the pay differential, I guess... the last three seasons Jones has posted a season rating in the 70s, where Mayfield used to be during his better years in Cleveland, but his '21 was in the 60s and his '22 was in the 50s. I can definitely see why a team in transition might take a chance on him (heck, in our Giants thread last year we even murmured about a swap) but I just don't see the validity of saying Jones brings nothing to the table, as you seem to be.

I don't watch serious film, or study intently, so... my view doesn't count for much.

[Solecismic]

I would not go up against the people at PFF and claim that I know something they don't. This is what they do. I do something else and try and run correlations to winning performances.

Jones does not throw many interceptions. He also throws for about a half-yard less per pass attempt than Mayfield, a full yard less than what we'd call the top performers, and let's call it a yard and a half behind the elite quarterbacks.

His completion rate is not unusual. My data suggests that the lower yardage is quite damaging to a team's win rate. But... so are interceptions.

I do very little film watch and don't consider myself particularly insightful. Watching Goff play last night... I was impressed that when he was under pressure, he always threw a safe ball. Yet when he had the opportunity, he wasn't afraid to go after the defense.

Mayfield doesn't throw safe balls. Jones seems (and it's just my impression) afraid. Right now, I would say the trend in the NFL is to reward safe over yardage. If the PFF people say that's warranted, I'll listen.

[Honolulu_Blue]

Sounds like Seattle could be down both of its starting tackles this week.

I didn't see any of the Rams/Seahawks game, so I have no idea what went wrong for Seattle. I mean, they didn't lose any significant pieces during the off-season and only seemed to add some, so the result is baffling. I hope it carries over to this week, but still.

Taylor Decker missed practice and could miss the game. If so, Sewell will be moved to left tackle.

Ford Field should be insane this week. I have seen more Lions gear and flags around this week than I can remember and a lot of chatter about last week's game. The people are excited.

[Honolulu_Blue]

In the last two games against the Lions, the Seahawks have scored a combined 99 points.

[Bobble]

Ugh. Rough game to watch. Far too many injuries (Houston fractured ankle, Monty out, Sun God with a hurt foot or hoof -- I don't know what historical Amon-Ra looked like --, etc., etc.) and surprisingly kinda poor defense. But, my confidence is not shattered. We took them to overtime with 2 turnovers, uneven refereeing, and seemingly everchanging lineup on both sides of the ball.

Enjoy your win with an asterisk, SeaChickens.

[QuikSand]

Really bought into the narratives around this game, and would have lost my shirt were I a bet-the-line type. Was convinced the Lions pass rush that looked decent against KC would have its way with the depleted SEA line and that they's cruise by 20.

Turns out maybe what I saw from the DET pass rush was just Aidan H getting good, but without anyone alongside him. Perhaps one more legit pass rusher is an immediate need right alongside outside WR weapon.

Ugh.

[thesloppy]

Same. They got practically zero pressure, despite Seattle missing three starters on their OL, that was disappointing. I guess the overriding narrative is that the Lions have lost 9 out of their last 10 games against the Seahawks.

[GrantDawg]

How many times in sports do you see that? Conventional wisdom turned on its head. That's why we watch sports. If it always played out like we expect it would be boring.

[Honolulu_Blue]

This season has taken a turn already...

That loss against the Seahawks looked and felt incredibly familiar. When you're the Lions having a game feel familiar tends to be a very, very bad thing.

The pass rush looks nonexistent. Hutchinson is a good player, not yet great, and he can't do it alone. There is zero pressure coming from the inside. The team lacks any kind of explosiveness on offense. Gibbs is supposed to be that, but hasn't yet. Jameson Williamson is still out and will be a complete question mark when he actually plays.

The injuries on defense are mounting. James Houston out for 6-8 weeks with a broken ankle. CJ Gardner-Johnson likely out for the year with a torn pec.

Things are looking a bit bleak.

It's only two games, but looking back at this thread we all sort of knew the Lions needed more help on the d-line - both interior and pass rush, were very thin and receiver and could use more defensive back help.

What did the Lions do? Draft a running back at 12 (that they have barely used yet), and linebacker at 18 (who isn't starting) and a tight end with their first second rounder (who has looked really good).

The good vibes are vanishing!

[Brian Swartz]

I think there has been too much over-reacting to both games. There are worse tragedies than an overtime loss. Having said that:

- Every team, every year, is at the mercy of injuries. Take the right couple of key players off any franchise and they aren't achieving what otherwise might have been their goals.

- It's the Detroit Lions. It goes without saying that they will find a way. Periods of success serve only to pump up false hope, because otherwise there is nothing to mercilessly crush beneath the boot of cruel reality. Only partly sarcastic here.

[Bobble]

I'm assuming every fanbase feels victimized by shitty refereeing but the amount of free-play-with-time-expired, phantom-call, almost DELIBERATE ref bias against the Lions is getting REALLY hard to take.

Anyway, big win against division opponent. Also not ready to anoint Jordan Love as the next great Packers HOF QB.

[albionmoonlight]

Originally Posted by Bobble

Anyway, big win against division opponent. Also not ready to anoint Jordan Love as the next great Packers HOF QB.

The broadcast team was clearly told to push the Favre-->Rodgers-->Love storyline. But it got kind of absurd when they had negative yards right before halftime.

[albionmoonlight]

I am also not ready to concede that drafting an RB in the first round is a long-term right call.

But I will concede that if you are going to do it, then Jahmyr Gibbs is a hella good back to draft.

[thesloppy]

I want to give Alex Anzalome some credit. I thought he was already playing above his ceiling last year and wrinkled my nose when they signed him to an extension, but he's been playing yet another level beyond what I thought his ceiling was.

[Bobble]

Originally Posted by thesloppy

I want to give Alex Anzalome some credit. I thought he was already playing above his ceiling last year and wrinkled my nose when they signed him to an extension, but he's been playing yet another level beyond what I thought his ceiling was.

The explanation I choose to go with is that, in prior years, Anzalone had been trying to cover for other guys missing their assignment and that made him look especially bad. Regardless, he's looked good ... or maybe just "better"...

[flere-imsaho]

IMO, Love looked fine. We need to recognize that Detroit are actually a good team now, especially on defense, and GB's O-Line clearly had a bunch of issues.

My prediction is that if the O-Line gets sorted out and as he gets some more game time, he'll be an above-average QB and they'll remain competitive.

[thesloppy]

These past couple games make that loss to the Seahawks sting even worse. Still baffling that the D-line we saw last night couldn't get any pressure, against the Seahawks' backups, at home.

[Honolulu_Blue]

Jay-Mo has been freed!

Jameson Williams’ suspension was just reduced to 2 games due to a change in NFL policy on betting on non-NFL games.

[thesloppy]

Nice!

[thesloppy]

Originally Posted by Honolulu_Blue

Jay-Mo has been freed!

Jameson Williams’ suspension was just reduced to 2 games due to a change in NFL policy on betting on non-NFL games.

Reading more into this it seems that for future incidents the punishment for this infraction has been reduced to 2 games, but Jamo served a 4-game suspension... yet another incident of the rules seemingly applying differently for Detroit.

[Honolulu_Blue]

The Lions currently sit on top of the NFC North with a game lead over the Packers. They have largely taken care of business, stumbling against Seattle, but then rattling off three straight conference wins.

They will be tested on the road the next two weeks against a surprising 3-1 Buccaneers (and their classic Creamsicle uniforms, which I love) and then the Ravens.

The Lions have lost two of their three big time free agent secondary signings in CJ Gardner-Johnson (may comeback by the end of the year) and Emmanuel Mosley (out for the year after two plays). I could see the Lions looking to make a trade to get some more depth at cornerback. I love Jerry Jacobs, but he's a UDFA and a bit inconsistent.

I think they will try to get Jack Campbell more involved in the defense. He has been okay, not great so far.

Brian Branch has been amazing.

Offensively, Montgomery has been a perfect fit for the offense. Sam LaPorta has been phenomenal. Gibbs still really hasn't done much and is now hurt.

Jamo is still very much a work in process and we can only hope that he develops into what they expecting when he was drafted. It's not expected at this point.

Thanks to hitting on LaPorta and Branch in the second round, the Lions may have one of the best 2023 draft classes.

[QuikSand]

Yup, fair summary of where we are now. In a pretty good position, but also agreed that the CB position remains worrisome.

It's also probably good that there are a couple lightning rod teams in the NFC taking up a lot of oxygen and airtime... the 49ers juggernaut and the still-unbeaten Eagles. That keeps the Lions from suddenly getting a bunch of "are you guys gonna make a SuperBowl video?" crap or the modern equivalent. I don't think they would hold up well as the "too close to the sun" stripe, so on balance it's good they are playing well but remaining slightly under the radar.

We see that the division shouldn't be a problem, GB isn't a complete team and the others are not in a position to contend at all. So, this year is about growing up, rounding out, developing depth, finding out what we/they have at key positions like CB and WR, and being ready to win a playoff game.

In a way, it feels a lot like the NBA (not my expertise) where analysts talk about teams in tiers, as if the postseason series are fully predetermined outcomes. A team makes a trade for a good player and someone like Bill Simmons just says "this probably gets them into the conference championship series" in much the same way that an NFL team might be tabbed as "likely division winner" or whatnot. I feel like that's exactly who Detroit is right now... a playoff team that we expect go out and win exactly one playoff game, and then lose valiantly against a superior rival in the second round. And that's fine.

[QuikSand]

By the way, despite my draft day misgivings, I remain very interested in what this team is doing overall, and I like the methods they are using to build out what they want to see. Other than the RB position, I basically endorse nearly everything they are doing.

[albionmoonlight]

I agree that a trade for a CB makes sense.

I don't know if New England can admit that they are in a rebuilding mode, but I assume that they have some veteran CB pieces. And they should be willing to trade one of those for picks.

[Ksyrup]

Denver will be selling a lot of pieces, but given their D, I don't know if anyone is an upgrade. I assume Surtain is not on the block, but he is in the 3rd year of a 4 year rookie deal.

[Honolulu_Blue]

Originally Posted by Ksyrup

Denver will be selling a lot of pieces, but given their D, I don't know if anyone is an upgrade. I assume Surtain is not on the block, but he is in the 3rd year of a 4 year rookie deal.

Surtain would be the ideal acquisition, but, like you said, Denver won't likely want to trade him and, if they do, it'll be a steep price. Multiple firsts maybe?

[QuikSand]

Originally Posted by albionmoonlight

I agree that a trade for a CB makes sense.

I don't know if New England can admit that they are in a rebuilding mode, but I assume that they have some veteran CB pieces. And they should be willing to trade one of those for picks.

tough for NE, who just reacquired JC Jackson as they play "win now" mode... but perhaps the tune has changed

[albionmoonlight]

I wasn't thinking young superstar like Surtain. I was thinking older but good player on a tanking team.

[albionmoonlight]

So if we are still the Lions’ front office and Goff’s agent comes to us and points out that he has been playing really well and asks for an extension at 40 per year (which is in the Stafford/Dad/Daniel Jones range), do we say yes?

[thesloppy]

Originally Posted by albionmoonlight

So if we are still the Lions’ front office and Goff’s agent comes to us and points out that he has been playing really well and asks for an extension at 40 per year (which is in the Stafford/Dad/Daniel Jones range), do we say yes?

Been considering this question myself, since he only has one year left.

I think you have to say yes, who else are you going to sign and what would you expect them to do in Detroit that Goff has proven he can't do?

[Bobble]

Originally Posted by albionmoonlight

So if we are still the Lions’ front office and Goff’s agent comes to us and points out that he has been playing really well and asks for an extension at 40 per year (which is in the Stafford/Dad/Daniel Jones range), do we say yes?

Anything under 50 per year, you definitely say yes. Jalen Hurts (AAV of $51m), Lamar Jackson ($52m), Justin Herbert ($52.5 m) and Joe Burrow ($55m). A few m's above that, I start thinking more about it.

[CrimsonFox]

I can't name a lions player. Anyway maybe since they are winning they should trade for even MORE people

[CrimsonFox]

ksyrup, you be in charge of who the lions should trade for to win more

[albionmoonlight]

Montgomery going to the locker room. The hit didn't look bad. Hoping it isn't serious.