Beware the Fat Man in Red (Game Over: Village Wins!)

[Abe Sargent]

Originally Posted by britrock88

He did, yeah.

Alright, I'm loading up King's Bounty - the legend then. I'ma up in the mountains with the Dwarves after delivering the peace treaty and I just took some demon-y castle. I'll be back in an hour-ish.

In the meantime, let's hope that our good duke target is ensconced in crimson or with pointed ears, and barring that, at least not the BG if he's a villager.

[JAG]

Originally Posted by Abe Sargent

Well JAG, suppose he didn;t duke, now you are forcing teh BG to choose who to block, a revelaed seer or a revealed duke instead of himself and the revealed seer.

If he's not the real duke, the real duke can reveal at any convenient point during the next day and remove that difficulty.

But Autumn's point is well-taken. Probably was the best move after all.

[Autumn]

My only qualm would be with you telling us who you're duking to, if you actually told the truth. I think the less info in the wolves hands the better. But I am kind of looking forward to CF showing up if you did duke to him. I bet he flips his lid.

[britrock88]

Well, I mentioned it at deadline (I think) for that reason.

[britrock88]

Also, to be fair in noting that JAG followed me to CF, GE did it, too. But JAG also moved back to me at the deadline...

[Autumn]

Originally Posted by britrock88

Well, I mentioned it at deadline (I think) for that reason.

Oh good. I wasn't really paying attention to when deadline was I guess.

[JAG]

Originally Posted by JAG

If he's not the real duke, the real duke can reveal at any convenient point during the next day and remove that difficulty.

But Autumn's point is well-taken. Probably was the best move after all.

I take that back too Abe. I'm a bit embarrassed at my thought process here, not up to my standards.

[Autumn]

We're sending JAG back to the minors.

[britrock88]

The Narc-style voting table is ready, but I'll wait for the end-of-day actions to color a couple more names.

[Abe Sargent]

Originally Posted by JAG

I take that back too Abe. I'm a bit embarrassed at my thought process here, not up to my standards.

's ok, it's a bit later than normal.

[britrock88]

Okay, going to bed.

time	post	voter	votee	#
22:57	159	Abe	mau	1
23:21	168	brit	DT	1
09:14	185	DT	brit	1
09:26	188	Autumn	CF	1
11:55	211	CF	mau	2
17:40	265	Zinto	Abe	1
17:58	267	Autumn	xCF	0
			brit	2
18:08	268	CR	DT	2
19:18	279	Abe	xmau	1
19:23	283	Abe	brit	3
19:34	286	mau	Abe	2
19:34	287	Zinto	xAbe	1
19:53	293	CR	xDT	1
			brit	4
20:07	297	brit	xDT	0
			Abe	2
20:11	299	Zinto	Abe	3
20:19	303	GE	Abe	4
21:05	322	JAG	brit	5
21:46	340	mau	xAbe	3
			brit	6
21:47	341	brit	xAbe	2
			CF	1
21:49	346	GE	xAbe	1
			CF	2
21:53	359	JAG	xbrit	5
			CF	3
22:00	360	JAG	xCF	2
			brit	6

[EagleFan]

Running late. It has been crazy since i started tonight. I will hope to make time in about a half hour to run the results.

[CrimsonFox]

back from work. Hey neat! a game of werewolf! One of these days, I'll have to play a game.

[CrimsonFox]

um.....LOL...okay....

[Abe Sargent]

night all

[EagleFan]

Time has come, you all decide. britrock must be the one. You gather and as you head towards him he tries to claim a role of duke but you ignore him. He must be lying.

Just then you hear. Wait, don't do it. Almost like a voice in your head. You stop to listen.

Not me, you must take out CrimsonFox.

You decide that you must listen to that voice in your head, you can worry about the potential psychological issues later but will listen to the voice THIS time.

You grab him but before you get a hold of him he lunges at GoldenEagle and with a hearty HO HO HO, MERRY F******** HOLIDAY!!!!! GoldenEagle is no more. Then you finish off CrimsonFox, white beard, red hat and all. Nol toys for you this year...

GoldenEagle was the seer role.

CrimsonFox was the Fat Man in Red.

[EagleFan]

You wake up the next morning and britrock can no longer be found. You search and search until you find the most gruesome of sights and you learn the definition of overkill. Someone had a major grudge against him.


britrock was the duke roll.

[EagleFan]

Sorry for the late results. I think it should start to slow down enough that I can grab a few moments earlier in the night as the week continues.

Unfortunately I decided to start this game the day after being told that I wasn't going to need to go on this trip only to find out several days later that I would be on this trip and I didn't want to see another game get cancelled.

[CrimsonFox]

HO HO HO!
That's THREE HO's!

[EagleFan]

That sounds like one hell of a present...

[Autumn]

Wow, that's a mess. Good call, Britrock. Sucks to lose two roles, but worth it for a baddie, particularly with one block under our belt.

[EagleFan]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

Presuming you're referring to EF, he said after the Day One deadline that he might not be here at deadline tonight, but would run the deadline as soon as he could.

Wow, this was confusing as I was reading backwards through the thread to see what I missed out on.

[JAG]

Alright, one down and one to go. Nice work Britrock.

[JAG]

Day 1:

Originally Posted by JAG

So here is where everyone's initial votes were yesterday (pre-reveal and DT vote swap to Simbo), assuming GE isn't lying for purposes of below colors for both he and Zinto:


2 Autumn - Abe Sargent (47), Zinto (78)
3 DaddyTorgo - Autumn (49), Chief Rum (84), GoldenEagle (122)
3 GoldenEagle - JAG (50), Simbo Klice (81), britrock88 (98)
2 Simbo Klice - CrimsonFox (71), DaddyTorgo (102),

Day 2:

Originally Posted by britrock88

for page 8 reference:

1 mauboy - CF (211)
6 britrock - DT (185), Autumn (267), Abe (283), CR (293), JAG (322), mau (340)
1 Abe - Zinto (299)
2 CF - britrock (341), GE (347)

[JAG]

Zinto's in green above due to GE's scan, but he could potentially be the sceptic too I suppose.

So at 1-1-1-1 DT-Brit-Mau-CF, CF put a second vote on Mau D2, which gives Mau a bit of a trust boost seeing as there was one sure villager he could've moved his vote to and one in DT that is leaning villager. Autumn had a vote on CF but then moved off and seemed to imply CF didn't seem like a wolf due to his reaction.

If I give Mau a bit of a pass due to CF's vote on him, from DT's list there would be CR and Autumn left.

[GoldenEagle]

Good luck village! Hopefully another game starts up after the holidays.

[JAG]

Something I just thought of (and I'm hesitant to put this out there after my thought process last night)...

Does it make sense for the BG to reveal who they protected today after tonight's deadline? The only wolf that should be left is an elf which the BG is able to slut if he protects them. So if the BG protects someone other than themselves and there is still a night kill, we can eliminate that player as a suspect. If the BG doesn't reveal who they protected and they die tonight, we won't be able to eliminate that player as a suspect.

I think the only way it wouldn't work is if there's more than one wolf left. I'm not sure how much value a protection is at this point since the numbers are 5-2 (assuming wolf + sceptic or wolf), so two wrong lynches potentially ends the game even if there is a block, though a block with a sceptic + wolf would leave us with a 2-2 situation which might still be winnable.

Now that I've thought through it, I'm not sure about it, but I'm going to put it out there anyway.

[JAG]

Oh right, we won't know for sure if the person the BG was guarding was attacked or was the attacker, so I guess that's not very helpful.

[Autumn]

Well, that would still work, JAG. Either the person is an elf, or they've been attacked. No actually, yo'ure right. It seems like that should help but it doesn't. With enough data of nights there might be a way to figure something out, but not from just one or two.

[Autumn]

Well it's still useful actually, if the BG guards someone and then there is an attack, that person is cleared, right?

[Autumn]

So yeah, the bodyguard can serve as a semi-seer. If there's no kill we won't know for sure what happened, but if there is one we get a scan.

[Autumn]

Originally Posted by JAG

Zinto's in green above due to GE's scan, but he could potentially be the sceptic too I suppose.

So at 1-1-1-1 DT-Brit-Mau-CF, CF put a second vote on Mau D2, which gives Mau a bit of a trust boost seeing as there was one sure villager he could've moved his vote to and one in DT that is leaning villager. Autumn had a vote on CF but then moved off and seemed to imply CF didn't seem like a wolf due to his reaction.

If I give Mau a bit of a pass due to CF's vote on him, from DT's list there would be CR and Autumn left.

CF certainly didn't give me much to suspect him on as the day went on. I usually find him squirmy if he gets votes as a wolf. I know when I'm on a wolf team with him he panics as soon as he gets a vote.

I agree that CF's vote on Mauboy looks good, though CF was a voter and may have been thinking second level there.

[DaddyTorgo]

Chief Rum vs. Autumn...Chief Rum vs. Autumn...hmmm

[DaddyTorgo]

Oh yeah, and hooray for duking to CF! That worked out hella well britrock - nicely done!

[JAG]

Originally Posted by Autumn

So yeah, the bodyguard can serve as a semi-seer. If there's no kill we won't know for sure what happened, but if there is one we get a scan.

Right, unless there is more than one wolf.

[DaddyTorgo]

Leaning towards Autumn, but part of me thinks that's just because he's been more active, so maybe I should lean towards CR.

[Autumn]

Originally Posted by JAG

Right, unless there is more than one wolf.

If there's more than one wolf left, I quit. I think that would be severely imbalanced. I guess it's possible not all roles are in the game, and we have no skeptic, but htat's not the impression I get from the rules.

[Autumn]

I haven't examined who to vote for yet, so maybe this will become apparent, but I'm not sure how it got narrowed down to me and CR so quickly. Is this still based on DT's list of people in thread on night one? Or not in thread I guess.

[DaddyTorgo]

Originally Posted by Autumn

I haven't examined who to vote for yet, so maybe this will become apparent, but I'm not sure how it got narrowed down to me and CR so quickly. Is this still based on DT's list of people in thread on night one? Or not in thread I guess.

It's served well so far.

I mean don't get me wrong - I can see how it could certainly fail us, and I'm not trying to shut down discussion of other candidates, but it does seem to be one data point for us to look at, combined with the Narcizo-style voting record. In fact, if someone wants to cross-reference the two and see if any conclusions can be drawn, or look at just the Narcizo-style thing and suggest alternatives, I'm open to it.

[JAG]

I tend to agree with you Autumn that there's probably not another wolf and there is a sceptic, I just am not sure what happened N1.

I haven't gone back to look at the deadline yesterday, but we know whoever the other wolf is was around because Britrock was killed and CF wasn't around at deadline. The other wolf had to have put in that order.

[DaddyTorgo]

Autumn/Abe/Chief/JAG/Mau are the 5 uncleared, right?

-Of those, JAG and Mau made the late moves onto the duke to join the pile.
-Didn't brit say something right before deadline about CF & JAG. I need to go back and look, but that might actually make me feel better about JAG if I remember it right, because that would be an unlikely wolf play.

How do I personally rank those names (in descending order of trust)

Abe
JAG

Mau (based on JAG's analysis in #425)

Autumn/Chief Rum

Based on this and what JAG said, I think maybe I lean toward Autumn, as he moved his vote off of CF and implied he didn't seem like a wolf.

Just trying to organize my thoughts.

[DaddyTorgo]

Originally Posted by JAG

I tend to agree with you Autumn that there's probably not another wolf and there is a sceptic, I just am not sure what happened N1.

I haven't gone back to look at the deadline yesterday, but we know whoever the other wolf is was around because Britrock was killed and CF wasn't around at deadline. The other wolf had to have put in that order.

This also leads me towards Autumn.

The evidence seems to be trending in that direction...

[Autumn]

Originally Posted by JAG

I tend to agree with you Autumn that there's probably not another wolf and there is a sceptic, I just am not sure what happened N1.

I haven't gone back to look at the deadline yesterday, but we know whoever the other wolf is was around because Britrock was killed and CF wasn't around at deadline. The other wolf had to have put in that order.

Or CF was around and staying out of the thread. I'm not crazy about how we seem to be putting so much weight on this stuff this game. That's why I worry about paying much attention to DT's list. Maybe the wolves just screwed up the order in the last minutes. If DT, or anyone else on the list, was a wolf they'd know that and be happy to propagate that theory. It wouldn't be the first time a wolf used a screwup to lead the village away.

So I'm going to look at everyone, but I need to do some reading. I just wish we'd focus on posts and votes and vibe, not presence in thread.

[Autumn]

Originally Posted by DaddyTorgo

that's some reasoning there...

VOTE SIMBO KLICE

Reading back through day one. One thing I like about DT is that with his neck somewhat on the line, he went with Simbo, who wasn't really a candidate at that point. First level is he's not overly worried about his own neck. Could be second level, trying to make it look like he's not worried, but you know.

[DaddyTorgo]

Originally Posted by Autumn

Or CF was around and staying out of the thread. I'm not crazy about how we seem to be putting so much weight on this stuff this game. That's why I worry about paying much attention to DT's list. Maybe the wolves just screwed up the order in the last minutes. If DT, or anyone else on the list, was a wolf they'd know that and be happy to propagate that theory. It wouldn't be the first time a wolf used a screwup to lead the village away.

So I'm going to look at everyone, but I need to do some reading. I just wish we'd focus on posts and votes and vibe, not presence in thread.

We're not just focusing so much on that. It's useful in the case of last-minute reveals though, which unfortunately we've had a couple of this game, as we've picked out roled villagers on our two nights.

[Autumn]

And actually I like his moves the rest of that evening too. HE doesn't seem overly concerned with his safety.

Unfortunately there's not much to read on anyone else who's still up for suspicion in that evening.

[Autumn]

I got through page 5. But I do actually have to work. Leaving this here so I remember where to pick up.

[Abe Sargent]

Mornign all.


Look like we did well yesterday!!! Let me get caught up on everything else, but so far, this game has been pretty smooth sailing for us. Let's find the Elf and wrap thi thang up!

[Abe Sargent]

Alright, he's been a bit quieter than usual, he's on DT's short list, which has worked so far, so let's



Vote Chief Rum

[britrock88]

The carnage!

Oh, wait, I was part of it... Good luck, believers!