WW LXVII -- The Return of Divination Nation! (GAME OVER STUDENTS WIN!!!)

[path12]

Originally Posted by st.cronin

Its not common to have a night 0 in these games. Its also not common for every player to have a nightly scan. However, given that, it would be pretty odd for n-0 to have different rules. But it wouldn't be shockingly odd, particularly considering that this game flows from the mind of PATH12.

Thanks, I think.

[Lathum]

A couple of thoughts.

I agree 100% with Grey that we are playing into the wolves hands by going down the list.

I think we need to broaden things to more then 4 candidates to be scanned tonight. The problem is with only 4 scan candidates the wolves will most likely kill one of the 4 and 25% of our seer abilities will be wasted. It also gives the wolves a chance to coordinate themselves assuming they can speak to each other.

I think it would almost be better for everyone to scan a random person tonight, that way the wolves would have no knowledge of what was coming or any time to prepare/ coordinate.

Also, I am all for people scanning me tonight, however, I think it is only fair that I scan someone who is scanning me as a some sort of balance.

[MikeVic]

Ok well I won't be available until later tonight so I'll vote now and send in my scan of clap.

I really don't know who to vote for, so I'll just go with no lynch right now.

VOTE NO LYNCH

[path12]

Current vote count through post #404:

No Lynch 6 -- Greyroofoo(287), The Jackal(289), Lathum(321), Nfg22(351), SnDvls(356), MikeVic(403)
Nfg22 3 -- Barkeep49(239), ntndeacon(334), Passacaglia(383)
jeheinz72 2 -- Dodgerchick(202), Pumpy Tudors(207)
The Jackal 1 -- claphamsa(91)
RendeR 1 -- st.cronin(210)
Lathum 1 -- RendeR(339)

Not voted: Chief Rum, mauboy1, jeheinz72, oliegirl, saldana, Bsak16, Mr. Wednesday

[Greyroofoo]

Originally Posted by Lathum

A couple of thoughts.

I agree 100% with Grey that we are playing into the wolves hands by going down the list.

I think we need to broaden things to more then 4 candidates to be scanned tonight. The problem is with only 4 scan candidates the wolves will most likely kill one of the 4 and 25% of our seer abilities will be wasted. It also gives the wolves a chance to coordinate themselves assuming they can speak to each other.

I think it would almost be better for everyone to scan a random person tonight, that way the wolves would have no knowledge of what was coming or any time to prepare/ coordinate.

Also, I am all for people scanning me tonight, however, I think it is only fair that I scan someone who is scanning me as a some sort of balance.

The problem with everyone scanning willy nilly, is that I believe most people have a very low success rate and that the only way we can have any sort of success is if multiple people scan the same person. We need some kind of coordination. Tomorrow I'm hoping we scan random people. The only problem is that I dunno how to scan "random" people without people suspecting wolf mischief.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by Greyroofoo

The problem with everyone scanning willy nilly, is that I believe most people have a very low success rate and that the only way we can have any sort of success is if multiple people scan the same person. We need some kind of coordination. Tomorrow I'm hoping we scan random people. The only problem is that I dunno how to scan "random" people without people suspecting wolf mischief.

I dunno, the more I think about it I think we're better off going random tonight. We'll still get some duplicates that will give us info to go by.

If we are doing it in groups I think we are better off sptiling things into 7 candidates each being scanned by 3 people.

[Chief Rum]

I don't think we should lynch anyone today.

VOTE NO LYNCH

[oliegirl]

I'm torn on the group scans...I do think it could be helpful down the line, but ALL scans will be helpful down the line regardless of if they are organized or not. To me, in this game, the scans are going to be as informative as the votes come day 4 or 5, which is when we can usually see patterns start to emerge and whatnot. And with 21 players, I think it might be too much to try and do an organized scan tonight...again, maybe wait a few days when we have less people to sort through and we have voting histories as well as previous scan records to try and sort through and figure out who is furry and who isn't.

Just my two cents...I haven't made a decision on who I am going to scan or vote for tonight - I am leaning toward a No Lynch vote though as the only person I could justify voting for is Heinz, and he isn't here to defend himself.

[Dr. Sak]

I think there is a wolf in the group that scanned Pumpy. I highly doubt that 3 people scanned him in N0. So randomly i am choosing one of them to vote for...

VOTE NTN

[Lathum]

This may have been suggested but maybe we should coordinate scanning all the people who have claimed to scan the same person

[claphamsa]

Originally Posted by The Jackal

Why would there be 50/50? Hell, we could all get villager scans, and only some of them would be accurate.

cuz they are only accurate 50% of the time.. and if they are wrong they will show up a wolf, and if they are a wolf they qwill show up a wolf.. somoen eneeds to turn up a wolf MULTIPLE TIMES to be sure it is a wolf!

[x]- I think

[Lorena]

Originally Posted by Greyroofoo

Group - 1
Barkeep49
Bask16
Chief Rum
claphamsa
DodgerChick

I never feel comfortable giving out too much information, but I will say that I'll scan someone from this list.

I'll probably be gone for the remainder of the day, dunno for sure. My vote remains with heinz.

[nfg22]

Can we get a list of all people wiling to scan the same person? That way we can organize better. I think we ae 50/50 split on that issue.

[Greyroofoo]

I'm obviously willing to go along with my proposal

[Lathum]

does anyone has a current list of who ssanned whom?

[Lathum]

scanned

[ntndeacon]

Originally Posted by bsak16

I think there is a wolf in the group that scanned Pumpy. I highly doubt that 3 people scanned him in N0. So randomly i am choosing one of them to vote for...

VOTE NTN

not to take you off of your theory, but to get more info. Do you think the same thing about those that viewed clap? if not , why not?

Halfway through typing that it felt like it was part of a reading guide. lol

[saldana]

Originally Posted by The Jackal

Well, unless someone explains this grouping theory to me in terms of who I'm supposed to pick between, I'll just end up scanning someone I'm suspicious of.

what is so hard about this....we have been put into 4 groups by alphabetical order...each group of 4 is all supposed to scan the same person, so if you are in group one, scan the person that CR listed as your group scan, which are the people in the order they signed up.

i am beginning to become a little suspicious of the people that keep NOT being able to grasp this...creating confusion or at least complaining of it usually indicates fur.

[Lathum]

Lathum, Oliegir- scanned Clap

Clap, NTNDeacon, Passacaglia,- scanned pumpy

Dodgerchick, TheJackyl- scanned MikeVic

Nfg22, bsak16- scanned Saldana

OK, so there are 9 people who were involved in the duplicate scans. Operating under the assupmtion that the wolves would try to hide in these duplicates I think we should start by scanning the 9 people bolded. Just my
$.02

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by saldana

i am beginning to become a little suspicious of the people that keep NOT being able to grasp this...creating confusion or at least complaining of it usually indicates fur.

I think I have indicated why it is a bad plan for tonight.

[ntndeacon]

fine with me, Lathum. I did, I mean scanned, one of those 9.

[saldana]

Originally Posted by Lathum

I think I have indicated why it is a bad plan for tonight.

so you think it is a bad idea to coordinate the scans and limit them to 4 people because that will make the wolves choose one of our 4 targets.

i think that the ability to possibly validate 75 % of our scanning percentages is worth losing 25% for one night.

if 3 of our scan targets live through the night, and there are 5 scans of that person the next day that 1)gives us basically a 1 in 6 chance of getting a wolf, and 2)gives us 5 guys that we get a read on their scanning abilities.

then what are the wolves gonna do on night 2? do they take another one of our scan targets, or do they take out one of the people that were in the successful scan group? suddenly they have too many targets to deal with, and it becomes simple math for us to eventually find them all.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by saldana

so you think it is a bad idea to coordinate the scans and limit them to 4 people because that will make the wolves choose one of our 4 targets.

i think that the ability to possibly validate 75 % of our scanning percentages is worth losing 25% for one night.

if 3 of our scan targets live through the night, and there are 5 scans of that person the next day that 1)gives us basically a 1 in 6 chance of getting a wolf, and 2)gives us 5 guys that we get a read on their scanning abilities.

then what are the wolves gonna do on night 2? do they take another one of our scan targets, or do they take out one of the people that were in the successful scan group? suddenly they have too many targets to deal with, and it becomes simple math for us to eventually find them all.

I disagree and it would be to easy for the wolves to manipulate.

Odds are one of the 4 gets killed which leaves us with 3.

then 1 of those 3 will almost cetainly be lynched tomorrow because there will likely be 2 wolf scans returned one one person or the wolves will make it seem that way. Now if that person is a wolf then great.

I just think we put to many eggs in one basket only scanning 4 people.

[saldana]

Originally Posted by Lathum

I disagree and it would be to easy for the wolves to manipulate.

Odds are one of the 4 gets killed which leaves us with 3.

then 1 of those 3 will almost cetainly be lynched tomorrow because there will likely be 2 wolf scans returned one one person or the wolves will make it seem that way. Now if that person is a wolf then great.

I just think we put to many eggs in one basket only scanning 4 people.

ok, so of our 3 candidates remaining tomorrow, we lynch the one that has the most "wolf" scans...if they are a wolf, we have validated 5 seers....if they arent, we scan the group that was responsible for the erroneous scan...if there were any wolves trying to manipulate the vote to a villager, we will find them that way

maybe we should change the 4 targets designated for tonight to 5 people that we as a consensus consider "dangerous if wolf"

[nfg22]

Im down with that last plan...even though I wil most lkely be on the list.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by saldana

ok, so of our 3 candidates remaining tomorrow, we lynch the one that has the most "wolf" scans...if they are a wolf, we have validated 5 seers....if they arent, we scan the group that was responsible for the erroneous scan...if there were any wolves trying to manipulate the vote to a villager, we will find them that way

maybe we should change the 4 targets designated for tonight to 5 people that we as a consensus consider "dangerous if wolf"

and this is where it gets dangerous.

Lets say I am a wolf. Someone who scans me comes out early on and says they scanned me and I came up wolf. If one of the other 5 people who scanned me is also a wolf they are going to jump in and say they scanned me as a wolf also so that they can be in the COT for at least a few days. It makes it to easy for the wolves to blend in when one of their own is outed.

[nfg22]

Yes...it does make it easy for them to blend in. But the point of scanning in an organized group is not to find out who is a wolf, but find out who is reliable. If wolf's are willing to tell the truth and out their own then I am all for it. If they lie later, we will find them and kill them. Easy enough?

[Dr. Sak]

I agree with the idea that Lathum has about looking at the people with duplicate scans.

[saldana]

Originally Posted by Lathum

and this is where it gets dangerous.

Lets say I am a wolf. Someone who scans me comes out early on and says they scanned me and I came up wolf. If one of the other 5 people who scanned me is also a wolf they are going to jump in and say they scanned me as a wolf also so that they can be in the COT for at least a few days. It makes it to easy for the wolves to blend in when one of their own is outed.

so we change up the groups...if we nab a wolf, the group that made the correct scans gets broken up..eventually everyone gets scanned...either way, we get a wolf early...not sure how that is a bad thing.

[oliegirl]

I'm likely off for the night, or at least until after deadline. As I said earlier, I don't have "reason" to vote for anyone other than Heinz, and with him being gone for the day, I don't feel right voting for someone who can't at least try to defend themselves. So I'm willing to give Ketchup Boy the benefit of the doubt tonight...

VOTE NO LYNCH

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by nfg22

Im down with that last plan...even though I wil most lkely be on the list.

why wouldn't you want to be on the list?

[saldana]

Originally Posted by Lathum

why wouldn't you want to be on the list?

i welcome the opportunity to be on the list.

Lathum, i am honestly suprised that you dont like the plan, and would prefer random scans, considering what happened to you last time this rule set was played....GRFs plan pretty much eliminates the possibility of that happening again.

[Lathum]

What the hell is a GRF?

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by nfg22

Im down with that last plan...even though I wil most lkely be on the list.

Originally Posted by Lathum

why wouldn't you want to be on the list?

Originally Posted by saldana

i welcome the opportunity to be on the list.

.

Well that was my point. nfg22's tone came across as being regretfull to be on the list.

It's almost enough to make me want to vote him.

[Dr. Sak]

Exactamundo!!!

[saldana]

Originally Posted by Lathum

What the hell is a GRF?

GreyRooFoo...his name is a pain in the butt

[saldana]

vote no lynch

[saldana]

Originally Posted by Lathum

Well that was my point. nfg22's tone came across as being regretfull to be on the list.

It's almost enough to make me want to vote him.

the only reason i am not voting for him is because I know his scan is correct...he read me as a student, which is right.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by saldana

the only reason i am not voting for him is because I know his scan is correct...he read me as a student, which is right.

and if he is a wolf he knows you are a student so it means nothing.

[Mr. Wednesday]

Originally Posted by saldana

so you think it is a bad idea to coordinate the scans and limit them to 4 people because that will make the wolves choose one of our 4 targets.

i think that the ability to possibly validate 75 % of our scanning percentages is worth losing 25% for one night.

We're not validating anything tonight. We begin to get the picture, gradually, as players are lynched and night-killed. We may be able to somewhat influence the night kills by who we scan.

if 3 of our scan targets live through the night, and there are 5 scans of that person the next day that 1)gives us basically a 1 in 6 chance of getting a wolf, and 2)gives us 5 guys that we get a read on their scanning abilities.

I don't see that a particular chance of getting a wolf follows. I think there's an ongoing misunderstanding of what kind of information we get out of tonight. To make it perfectly clear: We learn nothing tonight about who is or is not a wolf. The first and foremost thing we get out of it is learning something about who is or is not a good seer. We may be able to use the seer info we get now to greater effect when we know more about who is and is not a good seer, but for the time being, I am ignoring the results of scans in deciding who to vote.

I think nfg's thoughts about voting on someone who has been scanned more have some merit. No lynch looks like it's going to win anyway, so this is only something of a commentary vote, and one that I don't expect to repeat tomorrow unless circumstances so dictate.

VOTE claphamsa

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by nfg22

Checking in.....Saldana seems to be a seer...

I also know this is a little meta-gamey but he refered to you as a seer and not a student.

I don't plan on scanning nfg22 tonight because if he comes up wolf for me it may seem I am out to get him, but I suggest a couple of people scan him.

[Lorena]

Originally Posted by nfg22

Im down with that last plan...even though I wil most lkely be on the list.

I didn't read this as he didn't wanna be on the list, I read this as he's doesn't mind being on the list.

[saldana]

Originally Posted by Lathum

and if he is a wolf he knows you are a student so it means nothing.

Originally Posted by Lathum

I also know this is a little meta-gamey but he refered to you as a seer and not a student.

I don't plan on scanning nfg22 tonight because if he comes up wolf for me it may seem I am out to get him, but I suggest a couple of people scan him.

both valid points

[saldana]

Originally Posted by Mr. Wednesday

We're not validating anything tonight. We begin to get the picture, gradually, as players are lynched and night-killed. We may be able to somewhat influence the night kills by who we scan.


I don't see that a particular chance of getting a wolf follows. I think there's an ongoing misunderstanding of what kind of information we get out of tonight. To make it perfectly clear: We learn nothing tonight about who is or is not a wolf. The first and foremost thing we get out of it is learning something about who is or is not a good seer. We may be able to use the seer info we get now to greater effect when we know more about who is and is not a good seer, but for the time being, I am ignoring the results of scans in deciding who to vote.

I think nfg's thoughts about voting on someone who has been scanned more have some merit. No lynch looks like it's going to win anyway, so this is only something of a commentary vote, and one that I don't expect to repeat tomorrow unless circumstances so dictate.

so if one of the groups of 5 come back tomorrow with 3 wolf scans and 2 come back with villager scans of the same person, you dont think that person is worth lynching?

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by Dodgerchick

I didn't read this as he didn't wanna be on the list, I read this as he's doesn't mind being on the list.

really?

when I see "even though" that usually is a negative statement.

[claphamsa]

I read it as he happy to be on it and get cleared!

[saldana]

Originally Posted by Dodgerchick

I didn't read this as he didn't wanna be on the list, I read this as he's doesn't mind being on the list.

how...

[Lathum]

I'll drink tonight even though I'll be hungover tomorrow

I'll put off doing my homework tonight even though I'll have to wake up 2 hours early tomorrow.

I'll call phone sex even though my wife will see the bill and be pissed at me.


Can anyone come up with a statement including "even though" that isn't negative?

[Lorena]

Originally Posted by Lathum

really?

when I see "even though" that usually is a negative statement.

You seem to be overanalyzing things I think. "Even though" doesn't necessarily mean it's a negative statement, at least not to me. I think he's saying he doesn't mind being on the list if it means he's gonna get cleared.

Originally Posted by Lathum

I also know this is a little meta-gamey but he refered to you as a seer and not a student.

So what's the difference between his post and Barkeep's?

Originally Posted by nfg22

Checking in.....Saldana seems to be a seer...

Originally Posted by Barkeep49

I know this is going to put a big target on me, but I have to reveal:

I am a seer.

I mean aren't we all seers? Some are better than others obviously.

[Mr. Wednesday]

Originally Posted by saldana

so if one of the groups of 5 come back tomorrow with 3 wolf scans and 2 come back with villager scans of the same person, you dont think that person is worth lynching?

Not because of more wolf scans than non-wolf scans, no. Especially not at 3 - 2. Remember, we are (on average) about 50% accurate, so on average, any particular person who is mass scanned will come back 50% wolf, 50% villager.

They would be more worth lynching simply because with a lot of scans, we'd get data points on five different people's accuracy.