Werewolf LXXI - Doomsday (GAME OVER. WOLVES WIN!)

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by ntndeacon

All right here is Lathum's arguement. Since I unvoted late I had to want kwhit not voted out. ther truth is I did not care who was voted out except for me. iwanted to not be voted out. I figured the best way was to make a deal with KWhit saying I would move my vote if he moved his.Kwhit moved his so I moved mine. note I could have moved it onto anyone else and kept the tie between Kwhit and Pass, but instead voted Pass making him the one who was to be voted out. Note again Idid not care whether it was Pass or Kwhit voted out as long as it wasn't me. And sorry Lathum for not catching any clue from Kwhit that he was the magistrate/duke. I thought he was trying to get folks not to vote for him. Now I did think it was likely he could have some role, and I had not such Idea for Pass.

As for the UTR arguement. notice that hasn't been an issue this game. I do think that I was SO UTR last game due to not paying attention that an alpha would have been SCARED to pick me thinking that Iwould be rightly focused upon.

you say you don't care who was lynched then why not leave it on Kwhit?

At the time you guys switched it was Kwhit with 5, You with 4 and pass with 3. Now Passes vote was on you, you had to know he would switch his vote to Kwhit to save himself so really you moving changes nothing.

Am I missing something?

I am just trying to see some patterns from the vote, to be honest with you I'm not factoring your level of participation at all, I think thats a silly argument. We have played enough games together for me to know you are not the most active player.

Maybe now that the Preds are done for you will have more time to post

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by ImTheCrew

i think lathum is trying to cover-up

VOTE LATHUM

cover up what?

[ImTheCrew]

you wanted Kwhit DEAD!

[Passacaglia]

Here are the votes prior to the KWhit/ntndeacon switch to me:

Claphamsa votes jeheinz72 (jeheinz72 1)
Jeheinz72 votes KWhit (jeheinz 1, KWhit 1)
PurdueBrad votes ntndeacon (jeheinz 1, KWhit 1, ntndeacon 1)
KWhit votes jeheinz72 (jeheinz 2, KWhit 1, ntndeacon 1)
Claphamsa unvotes jeheinz72, votes KWhit (jeheinz 1, KWhit 2, ntndeacon 1)
Lathum votes ntndeacon (jeheinz 1, KWhit 2, ntndeacon 2)
Path votes Passacaglia (jeheinz 1, KWhit 2, ntndeacon 2, Passacaglia 1)
Lathum unvotes ntndeacon (jeheinz 1, KWhit 2, ntndeacon 1, Passacaglia 1)
ImTheCrew votes claphamsa (claphamsa 1, jeheinz 1, KWhit 2, ntndeacon 1, Passacaglia 1)
RendeR votes Passacaglia (claphamsa 1, jeheinz 1, KWhit 2, ntndeacon 1, Passacaglia 2)
Lathum votes KWhit (claphamsa 1, jeheinz 1, KWhit 3, ntndeacon 1, Passacaglia 2)
Narcizo votes jeheinz (claphamsa 1, jeheinz 2, KWhit 3, ntndeacon 1, Passacaglia 2)
EagleFan votes PurdueBrad (claphamsa 1, jeheinz 2, KWhit 3, ntndeacon 1, Passacaglia 2, PurdueBrad 1)
Nfg votes KWhit (claphamsa 1, jeheinz 2, KWhit 4, ntndeacon 1, Passacaglia 2, PurdueBrad 1)
KWhit unvotes jeheinz, votes Passacaglia (claphamsa 1, jeheinz 1, KWhit 4, ntndeacon 1, Passacaglia 3, PurdueBrad 1)
Jeheinz unvotes KWhit, votes ntndeacon (claphamsa 1, jeheinz 1, KWhit 3, ntndeacon 2, Passacaglia 3, PurdueBrad 1)
KWhit unvotes Passacaglia, votes ntndeacon (claphamsa 1, jeheinz 1, KWhit 3, ntndeacon 3, Passacaglia 2, PurdueBrad 1)
Passacaglia votes ntndeacon (claphamsa 1, jeheinz 1, KWhit 3, ntndeacon 4, Passacaglia 2, PurdueBrad 1)
Sonic Youth votes nfg (throwaway)
Mccollins votes The Jackal (throwaway)
The Jackal votes Passacaglia (KWhit 3, ntndeacon 4, Passacaglia 3)
Ntndeacon votes KWhit (KWhit 4, ntndeacon 4, Passacaglia 3)
Narcizo unvotes jeheinz, votes KWhit (KWhit 5, ntndeacon 4, Passacaglia 3)

[Passacaglia]

So you were down a vote on KWhit, ntn, and if there was a tie, he was still going to be the one lynched. Everyone had voted, so there was no worries about any people who hadn't voted. We're talking Day 1 -- did you really expect a last-minute vote change?

[ntndeacon]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

If I recall, I don't think you were that much in danger when you made that switch with KWhit. Maybe I'm biased, since it happened to me, pretty much right as I was getting into work. I'll look it up and report back -- I was thinking I'd do the research on this tomorrow morning, but I just remembered that tomorrow morning might be busy for me at work, and since I'm the leading vote getter, I might as well do it now.

Also, I think it's strange that you now say you had an idea that KWhit had a role. Why didn't you say anything like that in post 379? Something like, "I didn't think he was the duke, but I thought he might have been hinting at something." Instead, you said it passed you right by. Also, in post 379, you said that you weren't sure if you would lose the tiebreak, but I distinctly remember you knowing the tiebreak rules -- when me and KWhit were tied, you brought up that KWhit would get lynched. Maybe you were talking about when you were tied with someone -- again, I'll have to look that up.

Also, when I read the rules about the alpha wolf, I remember immediately thinking that you wouold be my first choice as a wolf, if I were the alpha. You may not be UTR in this game, but you often are, and it works -- you get the respect of a vet, but since no one expects you to be chatty anyway, no one gets weirded out that you're quiet.

I was tied for the lead with KWhit at the time. and though Idid not know the tie break rules (we will get to this in a second) then I was due to lose the tiebreaker.

Now then about the tiebreaker. I was tied with Kwhit when I went to sleep with my vote on him and his on me you were one behind. I looked at the rules after I had gotten Kwhit to chnge his vote and changed mine. That put you ahead 5-4 . Then you took your vote to Kwhit in a self preservation attempt to tie it up. At that point I looked up how ties were broken, because I wanted to make sure we voted for someone. seeing the role it wasn't long after that the question was raised about tiebreakers.

As to UTR, I was too far gone even for me. is it really a surprise for you Pass that day one I got several votes for being too under the radar LAST game. I think that is an easy vote especially if they have only played with me a couple of times. You and Lathum among others knows that I am usually quiet. Now will I use UTR again...sure I will. but I don't miss votes. that was a rarity and missing votes is a sure sign yopu are about to be a very watched person.

[Passacaglia]

My bad, you would have been lynched in case of a tie. Still down a vote with everyone else having voted. Not only that, it was your idea. KWhit said he needs someone to switch their vote, but you were the one who got specific about it.

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by ntndeacon

I was tied for the lead with KWhit at the time. and though Idid not know the tie break rules (we will get to this in a second) then I was due to lose the tiebreaker.

Now then about the tiebreaker. I was tied with Kwhit when I went to sleep with my vote on him and his on me you were one behind. I looked at the rules after I had gotten Kwhit to chnge his vote and changed mine. That put you ahead 5-4 . Then you took your vote to Kwhit in a self preservation attempt to tie it up. At that point I looked up how ties were broken, because I wanted to make sure we voted for someone. seeing the role it wasn't long after that the question was raised about tiebreakers.

As to UTR, I was too far gone even for me. is it really a surprise for you Pass that day one I got several votes for being too under the radar LAST game. I think that is an easy vote especially if they have only played with me a couple of times. You and Lathum among others knows that I am usually quiet. Now will I use UTR again...sure I will. but I don't miss votes. that was a rarity and missing votes is a sure sign yopu are about to be a very watched person.

I'll grant you that when votes came on you, I wasn't surprised. That said, for every vote for you, I've heard a comment that no one would choose you, since there would be so much heat on you.

As for why I thought that I would choose you, a lot of that comes from the last game, when I was a wolf, thinking that you had it nice and cushy, not taking any heat, while when I stayed silent (granted it was for weird reasons), people voted me off anyway (granted they had other reasons).

Since we're talking about who would be a good choice for a wolf, I honestly don't know how people can talk about me. I haven't brought this up yet, since it kinda kills my rep, but I'm an AWFUL wolf. I got lynched what, within a day or two of joining the underground last game? There's tons of examples like this. I'll go find them if there's nothing else to reply to.

[ntndeacon]

Originally Posted by Lathum

you say you don't care who was lynched then why not leave it on Kwhit?

At the time you guys switched it was Kwhit with 5, You with 4 and pass with 3. Now Passes vote was on you, you had to know he would switch his vote to Kwhit to save himself so really you moving changes nothing.

Am I missing something?

I am just trying to see some patterns from the vote, to be honest with you I'm not factoring your level of participation at all, I think thats a silly argument. We have played enough games together for me to know you are not the most active player.

Maybe now that the Preds are done for you will have more time to post

I didn't care. I just wanted it to not be me. I thought it was tied. iguess I thought it was 5-5-3. So I thought taking those votes off would make it 4-4-5. now even if Pass takes his vote off of me that makes it 5-3-5 and I feel safer. If you are right (and I will go back and check) then it might not have been the smartest thing I have done.

oh the Pred suck. Go Thrashers! Make the playoffs (next year)

[Passacaglia]

Here's my last four wolf outings:

Pleasure Cruise: 9) Passacaglia - Removed from the ship by the Captain Turn 7 – UNDERGROUND (note that I joined the underground on Turn 5)
Money: I can’t see what day I was killed, but it was me, clap, and Alan, and I was the first to go.
Cubicle: Again, first post isn’t updated, but the Crew was me, SnDvls, jeheinz and path. I think the other team was Alan, Farrah, finkenst maybe?, and someone else I forget who. SnDvls died before me, but he was killed by the other wolves. I was the first wolf lynched on my team – the only reason that I lasted as long as I did is because the village was too busy lynching the wolves on the other team.
The Wedding: 11. Passacagliia- lynched day 3- ex boyfriend: This is the game where jeheinz scanned two wolves (BK and CR) and came out with them. No one believed him, but the village just won after he died. Note that I was the only wolf NOT scanned – I got lynched before both of them were revealed.

[ImTheCrew]

how often is NTN the wolf?

[Passacaglia]

Mouth, meet money.

VOTE NTNDEACON

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by ImTheCrew

how often is NTN the wolf?

1/X of the time, where X is the number of players in a typical game.

[EagleFan]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

1/X of the time, where X is the number of players in a typical game.

I thought it was more like X/Y of the time, where X is the number of wolves in a typical game and X is the number of players in a typical game...

[ImTheCrew]

isnt that true for everyone and every game

[ntndeacon]

ok I now know why idid not realize it was nolonger a tie. note it was 4-4-3 when I went to bed. I did not see the 2:02 central post or at least did not register it as getting me off the hook. So I went with another opportunity when it presented itself.

I guess there is a reason I forgo teaching the lower level math. my math has like letters and words and stuff. lol

[ntndeacon]

Originally Posted by ImTheCrew

how often is NTN the wolf?

last time was in cronin's gane I think it was LXI

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by EagleFan

I thought it was more like X/Y of the time, where X is the number of wolves in a typical game and X is the number of players in a typical game...

Maybe something more like X/Y of the time, where X is the number of wolves in a typical game, and Y is the number of players in a typical game.

[ImTheCrew]

Originally Posted by ntndeacon

last time was in cronin's gane I think it was LXI

im not roman! how long ago was that?? Serisouly

[ntndeacon]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

My bad, you would have been lynched in case of a tie. Still down a vote with everyone else having voted. Not only that, it was your idea. KWhit said he needs someone to switch their vote, but you were the one who got specific about it.

my specificity is exactly what I said though. I unvote you if you unvote me. which is reasonable thing to request I think. then I upheld my end of the bargain. I can see why it looks fishy, but I did not register Narzcio's vote for KWhit breaking the tie. If I had I would have been more vigilant and waited too long and be dead I guess. (assuming Mccollins vote change remains the same)

[ntndeacon]

6-7 games ago

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by ImTheCrew

im not roman! how long ago was that?? Serisouly

I guess you would have hated cronin's Rome game then!

Seriously, it doesn't matter. LXI is 66, and LXXII is 72. And it doesn't matter how long ago he was a wolf -- the probability that he is a wolf in this game is independent of that.

[ImTheCrew]

i know pass, im just brewing up an idea...

[EagleFan]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

Maybe something more like X/Y of the time, where X is the number of wolves in a typical game, and Y is the number of players in a typical game.

damn that no editing posts rule...

[ntndeacon]

I was thinking of putting my vote on Lathum before I picked up on the whole it wasn't tied thing. now he doesn't look as goading as he did in my eyes. So I have no idea for whom to vote.

[ntndeacon]

Let me state again for the record .

I am not a wolf!!!

the wolfs are using my mistake to keep themselves hidden longer.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by ImTheCrew

you wanted Kwhit DEAD!

I wanted KWhit lynched, not dead.

Like I said, if I was a wolf there is no way I want the duke lynched day 1, it clears a player early on while putting the lynch descion in 1 persons hands who has a 20-28% chance at hitting a wolf.

[ImTheCrew]

Originally Posted by Lathum

I wanted KWhit lynched, not dead.

Like I said, if I was a wolf there is no way I want the duke lynched day 1, it clears a player early on while putting the lynch descion in 1 persons hands who has a 20-28% chance at hitting a wolf.

so a wolf always plays like a wolf?

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by ImTheCrew

so a wolf always plays like a wolf?

well by all means show me some evidence to back your vote.

[EagleFan]

Originally Posted by The Jackal

go flyers

Someone just got added tomy CoT...

[The Jackal]

Originally Posted by EagleFan

Someone just got added tomy CoT...

this game is intense

[EagleFan]

Originally Posted by The Jackal

this game is intense

Yeah, not liking how they are playing at the moment though. Looks like they are just holding on.

[mccollins]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

1/X of the time, where X is the number of players in a typical game.

Sample size!
C'mon, is it truly random? Even with this being the 72nd game here?

[mccollins]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

LXI is 66

LXI is 61

Are you covering for NTN right now and switching your vote off of him later?

[Lathum]

OK< so Clap is the other person pinging me right now

Originally Posted by claphamsa

vote hinze57

he votes Heinze, now a known good guy, 2 posts after the game starts

Originally Posted by claphamsa

i understand the reasoning for not quoting PMS, but this is rediculous

unvote heinze
vote kwhitt

switches to KWhit, another known villager who at the time was acting normal.

Originally Posted by claphamsa

maybe its just cuz ive played with him alot more than anyone here,... I would out him in a higher group, also he is the kind of person who would lower himself down so he couild sneek by.

cast some doubt on JeHeinze and where he ranked himself

Originally Posted by claphamsa

also, heinzee was on list as being a good flex type player, so I would think he would be one the wolves could count on use offing ourselves.

who would fear hienze the most?

earlier he says heinze is a top tier player, then says the person who fears Heinze would want to kill him. I think Clap falls into this group.

Originally Posted by claphamsa

nope, im too obvious so no one ever picks me

tries the old no one would ever pick me.

Originally Posted by claphamsa

vote jakyll


jsut an early vote, ill chang elater, but hes played the most with hinze, so porbalbly fears him the most!

again votes right out of the box

Originally Posted by claphamsa

soooooo, anyone got thoughts about this game?

AFTER he votes then wants to discuss things. What was his hurry to vote?

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by mccollins

Sample size!
C'mon, is it truly random? Even with this being the 72nd game here?

In the average game, assuming the GM doesn't have an agenda and random.org or something similar is used each game is like the spin of a roulete wheel. The fact that 13 came up the last spin has no effect on the next spin.

[mccollins]

Originally Posted by Lathum

I wanted KWhit lynched, not dead.

Like I said, if I was a wolf there is no way I want the duke lynched day 1, it clears a player early on while putting the lynch descion in 1 persons hands who has a 20-28% chance at hitting a wolf.

What's the difference in being lynched and being killed?

Wouldn't having the duke lynched on day 1 be the lowest percent chance of hitting a wolf? Even at 20-28%?

I guess not if a wolf is caught early, but it seems like you would want the duke out early so they can't screw up your plans later? Plus the more villagers there are, the better the chance for the duke to kill a villager (if I understand the role correctly).

[mccollins]

Originally Posted by Lathum

In the average game, assuming the GM doesn't have an agenda and random.org or something similar is used each game is like the spin of a roulete wheel. The fact that 13 came up the last spin has no effect on the next spin.

I knew when I posted that it wouldn't have the same meaning as with different groups of online friends. In the other group claphamsa and I chat with, we talk baseball and baseball stats a lot.

"Sample size!" pokes fun at the fact that, even at 72 games, that's not enough data to say that ntnDeacon is a wolf every 1/X games.

Does a GM always use random number generators?

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by mccollins

What's the difference in being lynched and being killed?

A big one when you are the duke. If the duke is lynched he isn't killed.

Wouldn't having the duke lynched on day 1 be the lowest percent chance of hitting a wolf? Even at 20-28%?

yes, but there is no guarentee the duke won't be night killed at some point. The fact that we can clear a villager 100% day one is huge. And usualy the duke coasts for a few days because the wolves want to try and take out the seer. I actualy think it was a huge strategic blunder for the brutal to kill KWhit when they could have had an extra shot at the seer. This leads me to think we may have an inexperienced group.

I guess not if a wolf is caught early, but it seems like you would want the duke out early so they can't screw up your plans later? Plus the more villagers there are, the better the chance for the duke to kill a villager (if I understand the role correctly).

[/quote]

As a wolf I would want the duke out early yes, but asd a night kill.

KWhit made it so obvious he wanted to be voted for, I mean seriously, don't you think he was acting really strange.

[ntndeacon]

there is like votes on 5 folks heinz, Pass , me, Sonic Youth, and Lathum. Lets dont add any more unless we get rid of a couple of these names.

[path12]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

Since we're talking about who would be a good choice for a wolf, I honestly don't know how people can talk about me. I haven't brought this up yet, since it kinda kills my rep, but I'm an AWFUL wolf.

HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!!!!!!!!!!!

FWIW, I don't think you're a wolf right now. I think if you were a wolf you wouldn't have been in a tie last night with no movement, regardless of the tiebreaker. All it would have taken was one of the throwaway votes changing late.

But dude, an "awful" wolf? Get real.

[path12]

Originally Posted by ImTheCrew

so a wolf always plays like a wolf?

Sort of, actually. Though I might say it as a good player plays like a good player, and is out of character only when they want to be out of character.

Shit. I shouldn't get high while I play WW.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by ntndeacon

there is like votes on 5 folks heinz, Pass , me, Sonic Youth, and Lathum. Lets dont add any more unless we get rid of a couple of these names.

Heinze?


I am considering a move to Clap.

[ntndeacon]

sounded like you might be headed that way Lathum. I might be tempted to join you or to look closer at SY.

[path12]

On reflection, the late throwaways are the votes that are bugging me most.

Why nfg? Why Jackal? Especially when you've got a 4-3-2 breakdown on day 1? Doesn't make sense.

[PurdueBrad]

Path, I think that is where the non-movement at deadline kind of threw me. With all those single votes out there, why didn't they move? Well, I mean we lynched a villager, so I know why they didn't move but I'm not sure how to go in and pick and choose who's vote is the most odd. I guess I'll look at the more veteran players that left weird single votes out there and maybe put a vote on one of them.

[Lathum]

I hope NTN dossn't make me regret this.

Unvote NTNDeacon
Vote Clap



His early votes are just to much for me to ignore. Obviously someone has to cast the first vote but he just fires away with no discussion.

[path12]

Originally Posted by EagleFan

A lot of interesting posts so far but still nothing that stands out wolfish yet. Well, some things do a little but they seem a little too overly wolfish, like some vote changes.

EagleFan, you mentioned this last night during the voting but I don't see a followup. What stood out to you?

I'm also wondering why you decided to leave your vote on a throwaway instead of on one of the main candidates.

[path12]

After looking back through the day 1 vote, some questions/thoughts that come to mind:

I don't think I've ever seen claphamsa do an official vote count before.

I'm more convinced that Pass is likely good, mainly because it would have been so risky to leave him hanging by a tiebreaker, day 1 or not.

If anyone was saved yesterday, it was ntn.

I didn't understand Sonic Youth's reason for the vote on nfg.

But with mccollins, the fact that he thought there was an error in the voting after the result makes me lean villager despite his throwaway. A wolf would have known exactly what the vote and result was before posting in the thread.

As you may gather by the above, I think there was a wolf in the throwaways. I think this wolf would have saved a wolf in the top three if necessary.

The people who I'm looking at most closely right now are ntndeacon, claphamsa and EagleFan.

[path12]

Originally Posted by Lathum

His early votes are just to much for me to ignore. Obviously someone has to cast the first vote but he just fires away with no discussion.

I think this is a good point. I'd like to see more analysis from clap tomorrow, but why is he a better target today than ntndeacon?