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#401 | |
Head Coach
Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: Bath, ME
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Quote:
But why would they bother? If they knew itw as villager-villager, why waste a special ability just to catch a different villager? I'd like to also point out that Lathum's vote on JAG was the last vote of the day. That may have impacted the tie breaker mechanic as well. |
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#402 |
Hall Of Famer
Join Date: Nov 2000
Location: Mays Landing, NJ USA
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Lets at least have two (or three if it becomes that) main candidates.
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#403 |
Hall Of Famer
Join Date: Nov 2000
Location: Mays Landing, NJ USA
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Out for the afternoon with meetings, will check back in tonight.
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#404 | |
College Starter
Join Date: Feb 2004
Location: Buffalo, NY
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Quote:
Well that at least makes some semblance of sense.. not a ton mind you, but some ![]() |
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#405 | |
Coordinator
Join Date: Nov 2003
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Quote:
So we all jump on PF, and what does that tell us? Without trying to sound like too much of a DB, I hardly see a bunch of great analysis being thrown around elsewhere today. |
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#406 |
Coordinator
Join Date: Nov 2003
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DOLA - yeah what Autumn said. We gain nothing by having a runaway on PF today, how does it hurt to put other options out there and try to get some votes moving around?
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#407 |
College Starter
Join Date: Feb 2004
Location: Buffalo, NY
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#408 |
Favored Bitch #1
Join Date: Dec 2001
Location: homeless in NJ
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#409 | |
College Starter
Join Date: Feb 2004
Location: Buffalo, NY
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Quote:
It doesn't hurt to put out other options. I'm just saying you're going from a "maybe" to a "maybe if the first maybe was correct". It doesn't make a lot of sense. |
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#410 |
Coordinator
Join Date: Nov 2003
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We'll have to agree to disagree. I find it very strange that you've latched onto this. There are speculative and "if this then this" votes all the time in WW. It would be a pretty damn boring game with a lot of runaways if we all voted the obvious way every single time.
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#411 |
College Benchwarmer
Join Date: Jul 2009
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I still don't understand how I'm a good 2nd candidate to PF if the arguement against me is that I am protecting a fellow wolf in PF. It's two sides of the same arguement which still doesn't tell us much.
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#412 | |
General Manager
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Chicago
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Quote:
Do you mean by night-killing Danny? I don't see how that has anything to do with you. Or do you mean by creating a tie? Because without that tie you were lynched Day 1. I don't understand these arguments. Personally, I don't want you talking less, I want you talking more to explain how your coming up with this logic because it seems really backwards to me. |
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#413 | |
College Starter
Join Date: Feb 2004
Location: Buffalo, NY
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Quote:
I haven't "latched onto this". I merely pointed out something that I found to be nonsensical, and then replied to responses. And when is there ever an "obvious" vote short of a seer coming out and proclaiming someone a wolf? I'm not saying that PF is a great candidate.. but if it's a case of "if PF is a wolf then maybe J23 is too", then it just doesn't make much sense to go for the less likely of the two. |
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#414 |
Coordinator
Join Date: Nov 2003
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That's probably a fair point. But I'm still waiting for those people who think it's such a terrible idea to tell us where else we should be looking today.
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#415 |
Head Coach
Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: Bath, ME
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#416 |
General Manager
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Chicago
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PF, I caught up and see that you expanded on the Danny nightkill thing. Just didn't want you to feel like I (or others, not sure where thought came from) was trying to discourage you from talking in the thread when asking for feedback on your posts. I always want more posts, not fewer. It makes for more interesting games and should (in theory) help the villagers more than the wolves.
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#417 |
Favored Bitch #1
Join Date: Dec 2001
Location: homeless in NJ
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I don't think PF is the way to go today. He would have been a logical scan last night and I think his allegence will eventually come out. I also think he has to know he is going to be in some heat today, and if for no other reason than causing controversy I think he would have had some sort of reveal planned out.
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#418 |
Favored Bitch #1
Join Date: Dec 2001
Location: homeless in NJ
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#419 | |
College Benchwarmer
Join Date: Jul 2009
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Quote:
Well, the person I wanted to look at today is Mckerney, who was in the running for the lynch last night up until 9:30 where all pressure disappeared. vote mckerney |
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#420 |
College Starter
Join Date: Feb 2004
Location: Buffalo, NY
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I don't suppose anyone has a play-by-play analysis of the votes for about the last hour last night? The way I make my spreadsheet doesn't lend itself to that kind of breakdown easily.
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#421 | |
Coordinator
Join Date: Oct 2000
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Quote:
The more I think about it the more I'm considering it could be a move to save PF, but I also think they could have done a much better job of it than to force a tie while he was ahead by 2 votes. I still think it is most likely they were hoping the could kill 2 villagers with the day one lynch abd leave us with 3 dead villagers and nothing to go on. |
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#422 | |
College Benchwarmer
Join Date: Jul 2009
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Is this what you're looking for Telle?
Quote:
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#423 | |
Head Coach
Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: Bath, ME
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Quote:
Wolves generally don't have as much pull as we estimate in votes. For example, we don't know how many of the wolves had voted earlier in teh day and were no longer online. And the very last thing a wolf wants to do is make a big move at the end of the day. I still hold also that they have been simply hoping to stop a PF lynch. Orchestrating a tie seems both too risky and too difficult to be the most likely wolf move. |
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#424 |
College Starter
Join Date: Feb 2004
Location: Buffalo, NY
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#425 |
Head Coach
Join Date: Apr 2001
Location: Whittier
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#426 |
College Starter
Join Date: Feb 2004
Location: Buffalo, NY
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I'm interested in hearing from DaddyTorgo. He placed his vote on mckerney after momentum was moving away from there.. and didn't move it to one of the two leading candidates when it was obvious there was no longer support for a mckerney vote.
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#427 | |
Coordinator
Join Date: Oct 2000
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Quote:
The one thing that is bothering me about this line of reasoning is JAG voting PF to make it 7-6, it looks like there was plenty they could have done. |
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#428 |
Head Coach
Join Date: Dec 2009
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#429 |
College Starter
Join Date: Feb 2004
Location: Buffalo, NY
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Votes as of post #428:
1 - dwardzala - Narcizo (322) 3 - PackerFanatic - mauboy (335), dwardzala (361), hoopsguy (378) 3 - J23 - bhlloy (364), Autumn (368), EagleFan (400) 1 - Autumn - Lathum (389) 1 - mckerney - J23 (419) |
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#430 | |
Head Coach
Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: Bath, ME
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Quote:
Yes, but given that they have the hypnotist, they can have JAG vote there and really move his vote elsewhere. If Zinto hadn't come back and moved, Zinto would have been lynched and JAG would be able to say he hadn't voted him. Just playing devil's advocate here. I agree that it would seem wiser, if PF was a wolf, to have JAG vote Zinto also and get a double margin, especially knowing Zinto could still move his vote. I can't see a case where the wolves were trying to make a tie though. That's just rather wild play on day one. |
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#431 |
Head Coach
Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: Bath, ME
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#432 |
Head Coach
Join Date: Apr 2001
Location: Whittier
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EF move was kind of odd, so for now, I'll put my vote on him until I hear his reasons for switching his vote without any reason why.
vote - EagleFan |
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#433 |
Pro Rookie
Join Date: Jan 2006
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Having a hard time deciding where to vote in the next two hours I have left to me. I doubt the vote on dwardzala is going to achieve any traction because he hasn't said anything so we've got nothing to get suspicious about. Pretty much the same with Darth Vilus and mauboy.
I kind of follow J23's argument - can anyone tell me the case against him. If it's solely based on Packer being a wolf then it doesn't make much sense to run him off against Packer. |
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#434 | |
Pro Starter
Join Date: Jul 2005
Location: Appleton, WI
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Quote:
Because they knew if they tied it up, it would like they were trying to save me (which it does). Plus they do get to use that hypnotist ability twice, so maybe they felt it a good play to cause confusion early. |
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#435 |
Head Coach
Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: Bath, ME
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As far as I'm concerned, it's totally based on his fairly key vote down the stretch. Combined with the fact that he's a guy I have a hard time getting a read on, so I hope a little heat will get him talking.
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#436 |
Pro Starter
Join Date: Jul 2005
Location: Appleton, WI
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#437 | |
College Benchwarmer
Join Date: Jul 2009
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Quote:
I'm assuming that you're refering to me. I've been trying to be more vocal (as my schedule can allow) after being anything but last game, and hardly think I'm the quiet one this game that you should be worrying about. |
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#438 |
General Manager
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Chicago
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Any kind of votes on JAG by online wolves (traditional sense) seem kind of toxic to me.
Early - they don't want to potentially start a run on the cunning wolf Late - if there is any sense of tie-breaker strategy then why raise him up? I know that the wolves don't operate with perfect logic, but this is enough for me to give JAG votes a pass for a day or two barring any role-specific information coming to light. |
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#439 | |
Head Coach
Join Date: Dec 2009
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Quote:
Correct. Nothing but prose. I'm writing the scenes based on what the results are or if a random idea catches my fancy, not connecting it to anything anyone says. Last edited by CrimsonFox : 04-19-2011 at 01:28 PM. |
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#440 | |
College Benchwarmer
Join Date: Jul 2009
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Quote:
Yeah, I thought about that vote too, but I'm not sure how to read it. I'm not sure the wolves would have been going for a tie, which is essentially what him moving onto JAG and JAG moving onto you did given the hypnotist move (and I'm fairly sure that the wolves would have known about the vote switch and manuevered accordingly). That makes him look a bit less of a wolf. I also was wondering if both you and he could both be wolves with him moving off of you and onto the cunning to have a good vote in his history to rely on if JAG got exposed at some point. The whole thing felt off, so I was hoping to get some discussion at least. |
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#441 | |
Favored Bitch #1
Join Date: Dec 2001
Location: homeless in NJ
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Quote:
+1 |
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#442 |
Pro Rookie
Join Date: Jan 2006
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Autumn's right - this game is wonderful. You're saying that someone moving their vote off of you (as a villager) onto the cunning wolf is suspicious? That this is a game where that could even be considered as making sense just makes me feel warm and fuzzy on the inside. ![]() |
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#443 |
Pro Rookie
Join Date: Jan 2006
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#444 |
Head Coach
Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: Bath, ME
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#445 |
College Benchwarmer
Join Date: Aug 2009
Location: SoCal
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Sorry to vote and run guys but im actually running late for work. I was supposed to wake up earlier so id have time to contribute but I slept through my alarm. My apologies
__________________
"Two there should be; no more, no less. One to embody power, the other to crave it." ―Darth Bane "Tell me what you regard as your greatest strength, so I will know how best to undermine you; tell me of your greatest fear, so I will know which I must force you to face; tell me what you cherish most, so I will know what to take from you; and tell me what you crave, so that I might deny you…" ―Darth Plagueis the Wise |
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#446 |
College Benchwarmer
Join Date: Aug 2009
Location: SoCal
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Vote PF
it looked like there was a little movement yesterday to help save him. that's really all im going on
__________________
"Two there should be; no more, no less. One to embody power, the other to crave it." ―Darth Bane "Tell me what you regard as your greatest strength, so I will know how best to undermine you; tell me of your greatest fear, so I will know which I must force you to face; tell me what you cherish most, so I will know what to take from you; and tell me what you crave, so that I might deny you…" ―Darth Plagueis the Wise |
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#447 | |
Pro Starter
Join Date: Jul 2005
Location: Appleton, WI
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Quote:
Haha - hey I can't help that it just rubs me the wrong way! The timing of it seems too perfect - especially after he had so much heat and then suddenly none. |
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#448 |
Favored Bitch #1
Join Date: Dec 2001
Location: homeless in NJ
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#449 | |
Pro Rookie
Join Date: Jan 2006
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Quote:
Ok Hoops - I know you're a firm believer in avoiding runaway votes - who do you think is a good vote other than Packer today? Because at the moment I think it's looking really hard to avoid a runaway - with voting J23 as a sort of Packer-lite option not looking particularly useful from an information-gathering point of view. |
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#450 |
College Starter
Join Date: Feb 2004
Location: Buffalo, NY
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