What will the outcome be of the mid terms?

[Ksyrup]

Decision Desk called it for Kelly based on this latest batch too.

And now AP and CNN.

[Ksyrup]

Cortez Masto just took the lead in the NV Senate race.#WeMatter

— Jon Ralston (@RalstonReports) November 12, 2022

[sterlingice]

Also,

Not that I want to rain on anyone's party. But a reminder that based on the affidavit transmission party data we still have some very, very friendly batches coming for R slate in Maricopa. Almost certainly not friendly enough for Masters.
Lake and Hamadeh are very much in this.

— The AZ - abc15 - Data Guru (@Garrett_Archer) November 12, 2022

SI

[Ksyrup]

As if the conspiracies didn't have enough oxygen on a normal day, I just saw that the Maricopa election supervisors chairman is named Bill Gates.

[Izulde]

No surprise Sisolak lost NV governor race. Lombardo was a *very* popular sheriff in Las Vegas (especially after the October shootings) and a lot of people were deeply unhappy about how Sisolak handled Covid.

I told y'all C-M was gonna win NV and it'd be a major upset if she lost. Things look good for her winning based on what's left

[Solecismic]

Originally Posted by Izulde

No surprise Sisolak lost NV governor race. Lombardo was a *very* popular sheriff in Las Vegas (especially after the October shootings) and a lot of people were deeply unhappy about how Sisolak handled Covid.

I told y'all C-M was gonna win NV and it'd be a major upset if she lost. Things look good for her winning based on what's left

Assuming she holds on (very likely) and pending Warnock's run-off, Sisolak will probably be the only incumbent governor or senator to lose a race.

There are many stories out there, mostly about the red wave that wasn't. Maybe some things cancelled each other out, but I find the lack of voter anger (which often manifests in incumbents losing) the most remarkable this cycle.

The pundits are angrier than ever. But it seems they're always angry and perhaps part of their anger is that fewer and fewer people give a damn what they think. The average person out there isn't voting angry.

We should have a contest predicting what Trump will say in his "big announcement" on Tuesday. I hope he's selling more steaks. Didn't get a chance to try one last time.

[albionmoonlight]

Originally Posted by Solecismic

Assuming she holds on (very likely) and pending Warnock's run-off, Sisolak will probably be We should have a contest predicting what Trump will say in his "big announcement" on Tuesday. I hope he's selling more steaks. Didn't get a chance to try one last time.

Politically, it is the worst time for him to announce he is running in 2024. But he really needs to announce a run soon-ish so that he can be a “candidate” as part of a public relations defense against likely criminal charges. It puts him in a bit of a timing bind. He was fully expecting to announce in the wake of a red wave election that he would take full credit for.

[Lathum]

He is going to stand up there and claim it was a great victory he is responsible for and don't believe the fake news media. The interesting thing will be once he announces do all the people who have been speaking out against him fall back in line.

[Ksyrup]

Yep. This is going to be the equivalent to that period about 2 weeks after J6 when McConnell McCarthy and others tried to put the dagger in him but gave up because no one followed.

This is up to the rank-and-file GOP. The Clown Car Caucus has every reason to back Trump, so there should be no expectation this will happen without a fight. The big difference I see with J6 is the main reason they couldn't break from Trump then is that it implicated the party as a whole. There is no "both sides" to J6. With this, Trump is the clear fall guy - and if they take it a step further, they should break from MTG, Gaetz, Biggs and others who continue to bow down to the Great Pumpkin.

[albionmoonlight]

I saw someone posting that in every Congress you always have a few reps who retire before their term is out either due to health or because they see a good opportunity elsewhere and jump on it. But if either party has a one vote majority, then no one in the majority gets to leave without costing the party big time.

[bronconick]

Originally Posted by Ksyrup

Yep. This is going to be the equivalent to that period about 2 weeks after J6 when McConnell McCarthy and others tried to put the dagger in him but gave up because no one followed.

This is up to the rank-and-file GOP. The Clown Car Caucus has every reason to back Trump, so there should be no expectation this will happen without a fight. The big difference I see with J6 is the main reason they couldn't break from Trump then is that it implicated the party as a whole. There is no "both sides" to J6. With this, Trump is the clear fall guy - and if they take it a step further, they should break from MTG, Gaetz, Biggs and others who continue to bow down to the Great Pumpkin.

If Trump announces, it's whether his horde of supporters stay with him that decides it, not Fox News, McConnell, or congresscritters from DC. They didn't really want him in 2015-16, but...

[Honolulu_Blue]

The GOP totally wiped out in Michigan. Democrats won the top of the ticket - governor, Secretary of State and AG - and took control of the state legislature for the first time in over 40 years. They, also, won all but one of the hotly contested US House districts.

It was a very good night.

It largely came down to these factors:

Abortion - There was a proposition on the ballot to protect and enshrine abortion rights. It passed big time.

Terrible candidates - The Michigan GOP is run by Trump people and they handpicked a bunch of terrible, pretty extreme candidates that did resonate at all with independents, had very little cash (because no one wanted to donate to them) and ran terrible campaigns.

Fair Districts - The Michigan districts were redrawn by a bi-partisan group pursuant to a proposition that passed a few years ago.

Increased Voter Access - A few years ago laws were passed to allow absentee ballots for any reason and allow for same-day voter registration.

I will say between watching the Republican Party cry and finger point, Elon Musk setting billions and Twitter on fire, and these crypto Bros going bankrupt it’s been a wildly entertaining news cycle this week.

[sterlingice]

Originally Posted by Ksyrup

Yep. This is going to be the equivalent to that period about 2 weeks after J6 when McConnell McCarthy and others tried to put the dagger in him but gave up because no one followed.

This is up to the rank-and-file GOP. The Clown Car Caucus has every reason to back Trump, so there should be no expectation this will happen without a fight. The big difference I see with J6 is the main reason they couldn't break from Trump then is that it implicated the party as a whole. There is no "both sides" to J6. With this, Trump is the clear fall guy - and if they take it a step further, they should break from MTG, Gaetz, Biggs and others who continue to bow down to the Great Pumpkin.

I mean, GOP House members watched as the 10 who stood up, including the #3 rank with the dynastic family name, committed career suicide. Senators were a bit more insulated because the electorate has the memory of Dory the fish, but even a number of the more "moderate", if they can called such, have retired or were primaried in favor of the crazy.

NPR was interviewing GOP voters this week and, of course, they are enamored with the new Fascist chip flavor of the month from Florida, the backup QB. But I also think that the type of GOP voters who would talk to NPR are not that significant mass of people who turn out for Trump and only Trump and wouldn't talk to any news source, even if it was Newsmax.

Does the GOP have enough people left where they could try and pivot from Trump and they have enough of a structure left of people who don't have the stain on him? I mean, there are always people in the "minors" like state houses, etc, who are probably just as good of politicians as those holding office but they didn't have the right backers or people owning them. This could be a "fresh start" to see a new, hipper, younger generation of conservatism.

Or does this even matter? Is this like steroids in baseball where they didn't like Arod, Bonds, or Clemens before so they're tainted whereas likable Big Papi gets in on the first ballot. And then the party just pushes out, say, MTG because she's a loose canon liability but keeps Gaetz because he's a fresh faced up and comer no matter how many underage girls he's paid to rape. And the right wing media will follow the script so the voters know who to like and hate.

SI

[flere-imsaho]

Originally Posted by Solecismic

There are many stories out there, mostly about the red wave that wasn't. Maybe some things cancelled each other out, but I find the lack of voter anger (which often manifests in incumbents losing) the most remarkable this cycle.

I'm not sure I agree with this. Anger brought out a lot of Democrats and young people who voted for Democrats. Instead of that manifesting in the ousting of incumbents, however, it allowed some D politicians (including incumbents) to win races they would have lost in a "normal" election cycle.

Fetterman being the most obvious example, but pretty much any one else who was listed as "in danger" in the run-up to the election, like Cortez Masto, Hassan, even Kelly. Plus, a lot of House races bear this out with D Reps who flipped seats in 2018 and barely hung on in 2020 managing to hang on (again) in 2022.

[Thomkal]

Originally Posted by Honolulu_Blue

The GOP totally wiped out in Michigan. Democrats won the top of the ticket - governor, Secretary of State and AG - and took control of the state legislature for the first time in over 40 years. They, also, won all but one of the hotly contested US House districts.

It was a very good night.

It largely came down to these factors:

Abortion - There was a proposition on the ballot to protect and enshrine abortion rights. It passed big time.

Terrible candidates - The Michigan GOP is run by Trump people and they handpicked a bunch of terrible, pretty extreme candidates that did resonate at all with independents, had very little cash (because no one wanted to donate to them) and ran terrible campaigns.

Fair Districts - The Michigan districts were redrawn by a bi-partisan group pursuant to a proposition that passed a few years ago.

Increased Voter Access - A few years ago laws were passed to allow absentee ballots for any reason and allow for same-day voter registration.

I will say between watching the Republican Party cry and finger point, Elon Musk setting billions and Twitter on fire, and these crypto Bros going bankrupt it’s been a wildly entertaining news cycle this week.

Curious if you think the attempted kidnapping of the governor played a part in the Dems winning there?

[Honolulu_Blue]

Originally Posted by Thomkal

Curious if you think the attempted kidnapping of the governor played a part in the Dems winning there?

That's a good question. I don't think it did. I haven't heard anything about it impacting the vote and I've read a ton of post-election analysis here. I think the story and subsequent trial have been going on so long that it's just background noise at the moment.

[flere-imsaho]

I know in the aftermath & analysis there will be a lot of perfectly valid takeaways about how to drive Democratic GOTV, the trouble with Trumpist candidates, shifting demographics in various states, whether the youth vote turnout will stick, etc....

But I'd like to take the opportunity to make the point again that the quality of candidate really matters and it also really matters that people understand that the right candidate for one office is not necessarily the right candidate for another office.

AOC isn't winning Mark Kelly's seat, Mandela Barnes was not the right candidate to unseat Ron Johnson (who was absolutely vulnerable), but OTOH strong progressives won a good number of House seats when they ran in young/blue districts where the electorate was ready to hear their message.

[Lathum]

So Nevada....anything today or what?

[larrymcg421]

There will be a big Washoe drop tonight at 1030 EST. It will almost certainly be called then.

It's pretty clear at this point and PredictIt favors CCM with 96%, but networks are waiting for CCM to take the actual lead before calling it.

[Honolulu_Blue]

Originally Posted by flere-imsaho

I know in the aftermath & analysis there will be a lot of perfectly valid takeaways about how to drive Democratic GOTV, the trouble with Trumpist candidates, shifting demographics in various states, whether the youth vote turnout will stick, etc....

But I'd like to take the opportunity to make the point again that the quality of candidate really matters and it also really matters that people understand that the right candidate for one office is not necessarily the right candidate for another office.

AOC isn't winning Mark Kelly's seat, Mandela Barnes was not the right candidate to unseat Ron Johnson (who was absolutely vulnerable), but OTOH strong progressives won a good number of House seats when they ran in young/blue districts where the electorate was ready to hear their message.

This is very true. My wife is the district director of a member of congress here on Michigan. The congress person is one of the very few democrats who could have won the district. Her boss was elected in 2018 and won in 2020 and 2022. The district went for Romney in 2012 and Trump in 2016 and 2020 and my wife’s boss still won.

The congress person is a powerhouse moderate Dem who has held this seat against all odds. Definitely the right candidate for the district, which is R+.

[Ksyrup]

According to the talking heads, Lake needed a far bigger percent of this batch and now has no way to win. Hopefully that is the case.

The Maricopa batch is 85k@karilake 51.8%@katiehobbs 48.2%

— The AZ - abc15 - Data Guru (@Garrett_Archer) November 13, 2022

[Ksyrup]

Also, this:

CLARK!

CCM gains 6K

She is well ahead now.

— Jon Ralston (@RalstonReports) November 13, 2022

[Thomkal]

They just called the Senate for the Dems!

[larrymcg421]

Did anyone do a better job this year than Jon Ralston? He stuck to what he knew and got it exactly right.

[Thomkal]

Yeah he was great. couple others too. And we still have a chance to hold the House too

[Danny]

Certainly in relative terms but I think one has to be at least a little more hopeful for the countries future given these election results.

[Thomkal]

Originally Posted by Danny

Certainly in relative terms but I think one has to be at least a little more hopeful for the countries future given these election results.

Yes, especially for those Red Wave voters above. (couldn't resist I hope you can ease up on the doom and gloom for a while now,

[NobodyHere]

Originally Posted by Thomkal

They just called the Senate for the Dems!

I wonder how this affects voter enthusiasm for the Georgia runoff.

[sterlingice]

Originally Posted by larrymcg421

Did anyone do a better job this year than Jon Ralston? He stuck to what he knew and got it exactly right.

Ralston was brilliant in 2020, too. I donated to the Nevada Independent after their great coverage then. Good local journalism is drying up and it's easy to see the good stuff.

SI

[Thomkal]

Originally Posted by NobodyHere

I wonder how this affects voter enthusiasm for the Georgia runoff.

There's still some benefit to Dems getting 51 over 50 like limiting Manchin and Simena's chances to mess things up and some other stuff, so way high for Dems to make sure Warnock wins. Republicans not so much, be interesting to see if other than Ted Cruz today, Walker gets little support from then now

[larrymcg421]

RIP Trafalgar. This is what happens when a pollster artificially generates a right lean and gets lucky because it actually happens. They get unwarranted respect.

Imagine if that doofus "Unskewed" guy in 2012 just randomly got it right. We'd still be hearing about his stupidity today.

[Swaggs]

It will be interesting to see if there are any metrics and/or studies about how Covid affected the ground game for Democrats in 2020 vs 2022. I feel like the 2020 poll underperformance for Dems, quite possibly, was because they dialed their GOTV way back and the GOP just treated it as business as usual.

[flere-imsaho]

Originally Posted by Thomkal

Yes, especially for those Red Wave voters above. (couldn't resist I hope you can ease up on the doom and gloom for a while now,

We'll see. Democrats will likely lose the Senate in 2024, an election year with no obvious pick-ups and Democrats defending seats in AZ, MT, OH, NM, WV, & WI: 2024 United States Senate elections - Wikipedia

In addition, if Angus King (I-ME) decides to retire, that's not a safe D seat.

The House will, as usual, depend on which base is energized. Will there be an issue to bring Democrats to the polls? Will the GOP nominate someone for POTUS who can either energize their base and/or is palatable to the mushy middle? Will Biden (if he runs) boost or hurt downballot chances?

We're a long, long way from being out of the woods, especially as MAGA American shows no signs of letting up, electorally.

[Edward64]

Now that we're done counting Senate stuff, the question is how come the House races aren't counted yet.

Below is the list of outstanding. Some truly are too close to call but there's notes in the list that say 61% counted, 79% counted, 63% counted.

Control of the House remains on a knife’s edge. Here’s how it could break. - POLITICO

[albionmoonlight]

Originally Posted by flere-imsaho

I'm not sure I agree with this. Anger brought out a lot of Democrats and young people who voted for Democrats.

I like this perspective. We tend to think of “voter anger“ as the very well-to-do white couple who secretly suspects that their neighbors might be very slightly more well-to-do than they are and get very angry and upset at this and vote against the party in power.

But the GenZ numbers in the selection are eye-popping. I think there actually is a lot of anger out there. But it is the anger of kids that we’ve made go through active shooter drills since Sandy Hook.

We have completely, utterly, and totally failed them. And I think they might be angry.

[Lathum]

I know t is anecdotal, but virtually every girl I know under 25 voted and voted dem.

It is more than just abortion, it is the total failure of prior generations to help them. The environment. Wages, etc...my niece is 23. Her grandparents just sold their house, they paid 35K for it in 1967 and sold it for 750K. y niece said to me, how am I supposed to buy a house? They see how the boomers have been "we got ours, fuck all you lazy kids" and they don't like it.

[Hillary Clinton]

Let's hope that anger makes GenZ become regular, reliable voters.

[sterlingice]

Originally Posted by Lathum

I know t is anecdotal, but virtually every girl I know under 25 voted and voted dem.

It is more than just abortion, it is the total failure of prior generations to help them. The environment. Wages, etc...my niece is 23. Her grandparents just sold their house, they paid 35K for it in 1967 and sold it for 750K. y niece said to me, how am I supposed to buy a house? They see how the boomers have been "we got ours, fuck all you lazy kids" and they don't like it.

And, hey, they're not wrong. The FYGM is strong, particularly with the boomers but not exclusively them

SI

[GrantDawg]

Looking like it is going to be about a 9 seat GOP congress with lots of bad trends today in House races. As much as that isn't much of a majority, it is going to be enough to make constant investigations of the Biden White House our future.

Sent from my SM-G996U using Tapatalk

[larrymcg421]

It's only a matter of time they call AZ gov for Hobbs. So glad to see Lake lose.

[NobodyHere]

JUST IN: NBC News Now Projecting Republicans to Win House by Razor Thin Margin

[GrantDawg]

If this were a better world, the Dems would peel three Republicans off to elect a more favorable speaker. So.eone to prevent the "investigation of the week" we are going to be seeing. Aldo prevent a government shutdown that is definitely coming.

Sent from my SM-G996U using Tapatalk

[albionmoonlight]

Look at the date of this dude's prediction:

Based on special elections and generic ballot and president approval trends, I’d say we are probably at about a 50-49 Dem senate with GA headed to runoff and 219-216 GOP house. Things could change tho

— umichvoter ��️‍�� (@umichvoter) September 1, 2022

[albionmoonlight]

Originally Posted by GrantDawg

If this were a better world, the Dems would peel three Republicans off to elect a more favorable speaker. So.eone to prevent the "investigation of the week" we are going to be seeing. Aldo prevent a government shutdown that is definitely coming.

Sent from my SM-G996U using Tapatalk

If Liz Cheney hadn't been primaried, she'd be a good choice. Dems would trust her to not go MAGA. And she'd get a few moderate GOP votes as well.

[albionmoonlight]

dola:

Though I guess you don't have to be a member of the House to be elected Speaker of the House.

Be cool for a coalition of Dems and moderate GOPers to elect her Speaker. And then she assigns the woman who beat her in Wyoming to the "decide if the FDA is right about how many rat turds can safely be in cans of tuna" committee and nothing else.

[Jas_lov]

There's at least a few of those Rs in New York that won Biden districts. Let's hope they are more rational and use their influence to stop the crazy investigations/impeachment. Gonna be tough for McCarthy to do anything.

[sterlingice]

Originally Posted by albionmoonlight

Be cool for a coalition of Dems and moderate GOPers to elect her Speaker. And then she assigns the woman who beat her in Wyoming to the "decide if the FDA is right about how many rat turds can safely be in cans of tuna" committee and nothing else.

There's a number of folks I'd like to nominate for that committee. For instance: Matt Gaetz, Lauren Boebert, Marjorie Taylor Greene, and Jim Jordan. Of course, these morons would settle on some horrible answer so make sure the committees work is non-binding.

SI

[Ksyrup]

They wouldn't settle on an answer, good or bad. They don't have answers. They would simply hold hearings so they could produce video bites blaming Dems for the FDA allowing so many turds in the tuna fish - which is being brought across the border by illegals

[GrantDawg]

Well, they have one. Don Bacon has said he would work with Democrats to select a moderate speaker.

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[Jas_lov]

Hobbs still up 20K after the latest Maricopa batch. Lake is running out of votes but still no call.