WW CLVIII - The Princess Bride Returns (Game Over: Wolves Win!!!)

[KatyLied]

Originally Posted by Coffee Warlord

I daresay I've been pretty clear about my position on Katy.

Back at ya, buddy.

Vote Coffee Warlord

[Coffee Warlord]

Hey, you're here and speaking!

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by Narcizo

I await analysis by Autumn and Chief to base my votes on.

Unlike Autumn, I am perfectly willing to bloviate endlessly and carelessly point fingers all around, so I can point back to it later when everyone starts to ask me on Day Four why I am still alive.

[Coffee Warlord]

Hell, we haven't had a lynch or a night kill yet and I already wonder why you're still alive.

[EagleFan]

As of Post 404:

path12 2 - DQ_BOY1000 (368), Narcizo (395)
Britrock 1 - Lathum (333)
DQ_BOY1000 1 - JAG (340)
PackerFanatic 1 - mauchow (356)
KatyLied 1 - Coffee Warlord (358)
Coffee Warlord 1 - KatyLied (401)

[PackerFanatic]

Yay for another "day one"...sigh...

VOTE BRITROCK

[EagleFan]

Originally Posted by PackerFanatic

Yay for another "day one"...sigh...

VOTE BRITROCK

Excellent idea, the Groundhog Day game. Keep reliving Day 1!!!!

Actually, that gives me an interesting idea for a game...

[PackerFanatic]

Originally Posted by EagleFan

Excellent idea, the Groundhog Day game. Keep reliving Day 1!!!!

Actually, that gives me an interesting idea for a game...

Don't you dare...

[Coffee Warlord]

The return of time travel!

[path12]

I hate day 1's, especially when there are two of them in a row.

For the record, I did not get the wheelbarrow. I don't know if we are publicizing that or not but there you go.

I haven't had much to say because there isn't anything to go on this early. So folks are thinking that Katy did the Grandpa move? Because I thought it was probably Murrayyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyy.

Either way it seemed too early to break that out, saving oneself on day 1 doesn't really get us anywhere -- a reveal at least lets you conserve that power and maybe get you a day or two where others can protect you at night and find a better time to use the power.

Anyway, let's get a vote in. I'm vanilla so I am not going to fight votes against me heavily since you are not voting a role off......though y'know, it sucks to lynch villagers.

VOTE DQ_BOY1000

Just to tie it up and because I've got nothin' else.

[Chief Rum]

No way murrayyyyy did it as Grampa. He seemed convinced at the deadline that he was done, and was actually a bit bitter about it (understandably).

[PackerFanatic]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

No way murrayyyyy did it as Grampa. He seemed convinced at the deadline that he was done, and was actually a bit bitter about it (understandably).

Agreed. Based on his comments last night, I would find that very hard to believe.

[Chief Rum]

So... was this thread locked or something and that is why no more posts?

[Chief Rum]

(looks up at post)

Guess not.

[mauchow]

Its all your fault chief.

[murrayyyyy]

vote fontisian

Only reason is revenge vote for putting in the knife a game ago and last night. Only have a read on one person so far.

[fontisian]

Vote Julio Riddols
One post early on day one is not good enough. Seriously, you're less active than Katy.

murra5y: Something about you just looks scummy to me (In general, not in this game). Sorry.

[murrayyyyy]

Originally Posted by fontisian

murra5y: Something about you just looks scummy to me (In general, not in this game). Sorry.

No problem font, I can live with that analysis. I debated Julio also.

[DQ_BOY1000]

Originally Posted by JAG

I think DQ is likely to be more active going forward than he was D1.

Yea. Yesterday was an odd day for me.

[DQ_BOY1000]

Please don't screw up the thread!! I beg you....

This is what I have so far....

Voter           Vote                Unvote          Post #      Time
Narcizo         fontisian (1)                       330         2:45:00 AM
Lathum          Britrock88 (1)                      334         6:50:00 AM
JAG             DQ_BOY1000 (1)                      340         7:12:00 AM
mauchow         PackerFanatic (1)                   356         7:46:00 AM
CoffeeWarlord   KatyLied (1)                        358         7:49:00 AM
DQ_BOY1000      path12 (1)                          368         8:46:00 AM
Narcizo         path12 (1)          fontisian (0)   395         10:32:00 AM
KatyLied        CoffeeWarlord (1)                   401         11:00:00 AM
PackerFanatic   Britrock88 (2)                      406         11:20:00 AM
path12          DQ_BOY1000 (2)                      410         11:41:00 AM
murrayyyyy      fontisian (1)                       416         1:29:00 PM
fontisian       Juli Riddols (1)                    417         1:31:00 PM

[DQ_BOY1000]

WOOOOOOOOOHHHHHHOOOOOOOOOOO

[britrock88]

path12 2 - DQ_BOY1000 (368), Narcizo (395)
Britrock 2 - Lathum (333), PackerFanatic (406)
DQ_BOY1000 2 - JAG (340), path12 (410)
PackerFanatic 1 - mauchow (356)
KatyLied 1 - Coffee Warlord (358)
Coffee Warlord 1 - KatyLied (401)
fontisian 1 - murrayyyyy (416)
Julio Riddols 1 - fontisian (417)

[britrock88]

With path, DQ, and myself out front today, it seems that the group is moving away from yesterday's action. I still don't like that tack. And I think I'll vote the person involved who I have the worst gut feeling about...

Vote JAG

Clearly, I may need to revisit this, as I'm adding a ninth (!) candidate to a race within seven hours of deadline while I'm tied for the vote lead.

[britrock88]

path12 2 - DQ_BOY1000 (368), Narcizo (395)
Britrock 2 - Lathum (333), PackerFanatic (406)
DQ_BOY1000 2 - JAG (340), path12 (410)
PackerFanatic 1 - mauchow (356)
KatyLied 1 - Coffee Warlord (358)
Coffee Warlord 1 - KatyLied (401)
fontisian 1 - murrayyyyy (416)
Julio Riddols 1 - fontisian (417)
JAG 1 - britrock88 (423)

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by britrock88

With path, DQ, and myself out front today, it seems that the group is moving away from yesterday's action. I still don't like that tack. And I think I'll vote the person involved who I have the worst gut feeling about...

Vote JAG

Clearly, I may need to revisit this, as I'm adding a ninth (!) candidate to a race within seven hours of deadline while I'm tied for the vote lead.

I don't know that is happening just yet. It's early, and only half of the votes cast have been for the three players you named.

[EagleFan]

As of Post 425:

path12 2 - DQ_BOY1000 (368), Narcizo (395)
britrock88 2 - Lathum (333), PackerFanatic (406)
DQ_BOY1000 2 - JAG (340), path12 (410)
PackerFanatic 1 - mauchow (356)
KatyLied 1 - Coffee Warlord (358)
Coffee Warlord 1 - KatyLied (401)
fontisian 1 - murrayyyyy (416)
Julio Ridols 1 - fontisian (417)
JAG 1 - britrock88 (423)

[EagleFan]

Are we going for a record of most players with a vote?

[Coffee Warlord]

Challenge accepted.

[JAG]

Originally Posted by britrock88

With path, DQ, and myself out front today, it seems that the group is moving away from yesterday's action. I still don't like that tack. And I think I'll vote the person involved who I have the worst gut feeling about...

Vote JAG

Can you explain what you mean brit? Are you saying you think we should vote for the same people as yesterday?

[path12]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

No way murrayyyyy did it as Grampa. He seemed convinced at the deadline that he was done, and was actually a bit bitter about it (understandably).

Originally Posted by PackerFanatic

Agreed. Based on his comments last night, I would find that very hard to believe.

Good points. Still don't agree with using it off the bat like that whoever it was.

[DQ_BOY1000]

I have no real reason to be on path so I will probably move off as soon as I can choose someone else to go to.

[KatyLied]

Originally Posted by Coffee Warlord

Hey, you're here and speaking!

Yes, because I feel like I should finish what I start. That said, while I'm all for a little trash talk, I'm feel a bit hesitant about signing up for future games. Not that I'm super sensitive (or at all, really). But, after all, shouldn't diversions be fun?

At any rate, I don't quite understand the logic in wanting D2's vote to be different from D1's. Nothing was resolved and we're in pretty much the same position we were yesterday.

[JAG]

Originally Posted by KatyLied

Yes, because I feel like I should finish what I start. That said, while I'm all for a little trash talk, I'm feel a bit hesitant about signing up for future games. Not that I'm super sensitive (or at all, really). But, after all, shouldn't diversions be fun?

At any rate, I don't quite understand the logic in wanting D2's vote to be different from D1's. Nothing was resolved and we're in pretty much the same position we were yesterday.

Look at things from a different perspective though. These games are all about figuring out who's telling the truth, who's lying, finding the wolves when you're a villager, and deceiving the villagers when you're a wolf. It's very hard to figure out someone who doesn't post very much because the only information you have to go on is who they voted for and their reasoning and trying to figure out what it means if they receive votes. No one is saying one needs a level of Danny or Autumn, just that they be engaged in trying to help out their team.

Your point is basically correct that we didn't learn much about D1 yet, but the odds that we managed to get 2-3 wolves on the block (out of you, murra5y, and CW, the primary vote getters yesterday) in a game where there are almost certainly 4 to start is pretty remote (if you're a villager, you can even remove yourself from that equation), so it makes sense to get some other players in the mix and learn about them. If we only had villagers on the block D1, it would end up mostly being a waste of time to repeat the day.

[Autumn]

Unless I'm arrested for killing my children, I'll be back later to contribute. However, there is a very real chance that I will be arrested for killing my children. So if I don't show up, forget you ever knew me.

[murrayyyyy]

Originally Posted by Autumn

Unless I'm arrested for killing my children, I'll be back later to contribute. However, there is a very real chance that I will be arrested for killing my children. So if I don't show up, forget you ever knew me.

Because of this I can't vote for Autumn... Unless he votes his kids.

[britrock88]

Originally Posted by JAG

Your point is basically correct that we didn't learn much about D1 yet, but the odds that we managed to get 2-3 wolves on the block (out of you, murra5y, and CW, the primary vote getters yesterday) in a game where there are almost certainly 4 to start is pretty remote (if you're a villager, you can even remove yourself from that equation), so it makes sense to get some other players in the mix and learn about them. If we only had villagers on the block D1, it would end up mostly being a waste of time to repeat the day.

Howzabout this. With 3 people on the block, there's a 12/19 chance of a wolf. But assuming there's a wolf on the block and a fairly close vote, might not other wolves try to manipulate the vote? That's why I posted the 7:30/9:00 analysis--I'm interested in the people who moved votes and altered the race in its homestretch.

[DQ_BOY1000]

Originally Posted by Autumn

Unless I'm arrested for killing my children, I'll be back later to contribute. However, there is a very real chance that I will be arrested for killing my children. So if I don't show up, forget you ever knew me.

Ummmmm.... Should I call the cops?

[DQ_BOY1000]

Originally Posted by britrock88

Howzabout this. With 3 people on the block, there's a 12/19 chance of a wolf. But assuming there's a wolf on the block and a fairly close vote, might not other wolves try to manipulate the vote? That's why I posted the 7:30/9:00 analysis--I'm interested in the people who moved votes and altered the race in its homestretch.

Narc has pinged me and I am still not sure why. If he can answer this question... why go to path with me today? And why vote for murray yesterday?

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by DQ_BOY1000

Ummmmm.... Should I call the cops?

Naw, don't bother. Autumn is this guy:

[fontisian]

Originally Posted by JAG

Your point is basically correct that we didn't learn much about D1 yet, but the odds that we managed to get 2-3 wolves on the block (out of you, murra5y, and CW, the primary vote getters yesterday) in a game where there are almost certainly 4 to start is pretty remote (if you're a villager, you can even remove yourself from that equation), so it makes sense to get some other players in the mix and learn about them. If we only had villagers on the block D1, it would end up mostly being a waste of time to repeat the day.

The thing is JAG, if Katy is a wolf, the way you voted for her in the begining and switched off when she was put under pressure is pretty incriminating. I'd say that mauchow and Danny's votes also look pretty bad.

[JAG]

Originally Posted by britrock88

Howzabout this. With 3 people on the block, there's a 12/19 chance of a wolf. But assuming there's a wolf on the block and a fairly close vote, might not other wolves try to manipulate the vote? That's why I posted the 7:30/9:00 analysis--I'm interested in the people who moved votes and altered the race in its homestretch.

Thanks, I understand better where you're coming from now. I don't think I agree with your 12/19 number though. From a 'pick 3 out of 19 players with 4 being a wolf' I assume it's mathematically true, but there are probably four wolves out there who know who not to vote for. It happens on occasion we get lucky to get a wolf on the block D1, but not nearly so often as almost 2/3 of the time.

[Danny]

Not sure I see any of yesterdays vote getters as a wolf at this point. I will likely vote somewhere else and see what can be gleamed from other people.

[Danny]

Also regarding being inactive, people are less active do generally get lynched earler, but they also usually dont get night killed as early so it works out.

Katy, I hope you keep playing, but it definitely is nice to get a certain level of activity and if not then votes are more likely to head your way (but again you are less likely to be night killed usually)

[JAG]

Originally Posted by fontisian

The thing is JAG, if Katy is a wolf, the way you voted for her in the begining and switched off when she was put under pressure is pretty incriminating. I'd say that mauchow and Danny's votes also look pretty bad.

Even if she is a wolf, I disagree with that. I kept my vote on her the entire day and only moved when I saw something that looked inconsistent from Zinto. A post before I switched, I was actually arguing with Danny the other way around until I noticed the time stamps from Zinto and Katy. Regardless, the wolf roles are all pretty important this game moreso than a typical game where each doesn't have a power, so if I were a wolf, there's no way I would try to get in a good vote that early and risk getting one lynched.

[Raiders Army]

Sorry, just logged in today. I just got the PM for the game. I'll log in more often.

[Danny]

Its ok, I didnt know you were in the game so wasnt going to vote you

[JAG]

Are you taking over for Julio RA? Didn't see you on the sign up list.

[The Jackal]

Originally Posted by Autumn

It's not number, it's just involvement. A wolf who never talks, or never says anything related to the game, never has to lie. So it's in our best interest for villagers to make as many relevant comments about the game as possible to give us somsething to vote on.

For Katy and anyone else who is newer, this is the key point - a lot of times when you are a wolf you tend to overthink posts a lot more than as a villager, so the more posts people have to look at, the more reads they can get to go along with vote history. UTR (under the radar) wolves are very hard to pin down, and when they end up being villagers who didn't have time/forgot to post, it wastes days. And the later on in the game you get the less wasted days you can afford!

That's why it's best to get people talking early.. try not to see it as personal attacks.

[The Jackal]

This is a crazy spread, normally when you see something like this on a D1 you start wondering why it didn't centralize and look at the first few candidates of the day, but I guess this situation is slightly different.

[The Jackal]

I'll be around this evening watching the Flyers continue to suck