WW-Pokemon Day Three Deadline 4/15 10 PM

[JAG]

I don't understand the brit night kill myself, unless he said something that seemed like a tell about a role (I haven't read back on his posts).

[timmae]

Originally Posted by Grover

So I do this same thing in the last game and get strung up for it. Nobody says a word of protest when EF does it.

Hey! I said something...

[Zinto]

As of Post 402

EagleFan 2-Fontisian(355), Jag(356)
Shoveler 1-EagleFan(360)
Timmae 1-Path(361)

Nightfall 1-EagleFan(360)

[Shoveler]

Originally Posted by Narcizo

My initial thought is that it's to condemn or exhonerate (depending on his allegiance) EagleFan.

Trying to frame EF seems most likely to me, although it feels very obvious.

Originally Posted by Narcizo

So the wolves feel the need to take out one of the leading vote-getters and someone who looked like they were going to be lynched until last minute shenanigans - and I would argue that the kill order can't have been influenced by the last minute change as it seems doubtful they would have time to react to it and change their order appropriately.

To be honest, I was expecting you or font to get taken out.

[Narcizo]

Originally Posted by JAG

I don't understand the brit night kill myself, unless he said something that seemed like a tell about a role (I haven't read back on his posts).

Well he was on the block until 9:59 so it would have to be a pretty damned solid read to believe that when he didn't reveal at any stage. For that to work it would have to be an early read and then the wolves weren't around going into the last hour or so. I don't think wolves around near deadline would think he could be seer and not reveal when his head is on the block at 9:58.

[Narcizo]

Originally Posted by path12

Another interesting thing is that if we posit that all three top vote getters were village, to me it makes those votes that were a) early and b) not moved more significant than they might be normally.

Yeah I used to think that. That said I think wolf-people are savvy enough to move their vote around even if it's all village.

[Shoveler]

Originally Posted by Narcizo

Well he was on the block until 9:59 so it would have to be a pretty damned solid read to believe that when he didn't reveal at any stage. For that to work it would have to be an early read and then the wolves weren't around going into the last hour or so. I don't think wolves around near deadline would think he could be seer and not reveal when his head is on the block at 9:58.

So if the wolves felt they had a read on brit earlier in the day, we know now that they were wrong.

If they did not have a read on brit, why take him out?

[Narcizo]

Originally Posted by Shoveler

So if the wolves felt they had a read on brit earlier in the day, we know now that they were wrong.

If they did not have a read on brit, why take him out?

Well, that's kind of the question I've been asking myself all day. If someone does find an early read then that would be interesting as it suggests (to me at least) wolves who weren't around near deadline.

The obvious answer seems to be setting up Eagle and/or cheeki. The wolves don't know who is going to die when they put in the order so it would have to be a conditional - "kill cheeki unless he is lynched, in which case kill Brit". I'm struggling to see why a wolf Eagle would put in that order.

[Grover]

Originally Posted by Narcizo

The obvious answer seems to be setting up Eagle and/or cheeki. The wolves don't know who is going to die when they put in the order so it would have to be a conditional - "kill cheeki unless he is lynched, in which case kill Brit". I'm struggling to see why a wolf Eagle would put in that order.

Very interesting theory.

I am absolutely convinced that EF is not a wolf. He would not have called for nightfall if he were.

However, I don't necessarily buy his "piggybacking" read on Shoveler.

[Narcizo]

I'm going to fall back on voting for the guy with least posts at the moment. A vote on Autumn that I questioned him about, an explanation that he wanted to see how "things play out" and then moving it to cheeki, with non-committal explanation about feeling better about the other lead-getters at the time. I'd say the most significant comment is offering support to Eagle last night but, at the time, that might have been the wise wolf-play - if they were expecting the village to take out Eagle anyway. Also the (admittedly vague) theory of an inexperienced/not-around-at-deadline wolf team.

Mostly a prod vote though.

Vote Raven

[Narcizo]

Yeah, I'm crap at role-reading but I don't see any seer hints from Brit. Role discussion has been more on the table than usual because of Vaimes but pretty much nothing. He hard-claimed vanilla villager at 19:10. I don't think the wolves thought Brit was the seer. In fact I'd go as far as saying that he would be one of the last people I'd kill if I was seer-hunting.

Brit posted reading Vaimes and Chief as neutral-to-good for what it's worth.

[Raven]

Originally Posted by Narcizo

I'm going to fall back on voting for the guy with least posts at the moment. A vote on Autumn that I questioned him about, an explanation that he wanted to see how "things play out" and then moving it to cheeki, with non-committal explanation about feeling better about the other lead-getters at the time. I'd say the most significant comment is offering support to Eagle last night but, at the time, that might have been the wise wolf-play - if they were expecting the village to take out Eagle anyway. Also the (admittedly vague) theory of an inexperienced/not-around-at-deadline wolf team.

Mostly a prod vote though.

Vote Raven

I have to run my son to day care, so I'll be back shortly to address this. But that last sentence was not my theory, someone else theorized that not me.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by path12

Chief is one of those people I can never get a sense of.

I have heard this a few times from a number of posters. Strangely enough, I don't know why this is. I don't have a strategy devised to make me hard to read. Just Chief being Chief, I guess.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by Vaimes

My experience with the two is

Doctor > can protect one person per Night; cannot self-protect; may protect the same person multiple Nights in a row

Bodyguard > can protect one person per Night; will die or lose ability if target is shot

Your experience notwithstanding, the BG here at FOFC usually survives the attack and retains their ability to protect.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by Vaimes

I'm not expecting free townreads based on my claim. If anything, I expected there to be disagreements, although some of them are pretty bad, the primary offender being: "if you don't get shot we're going to lynch you!" because that is such a Wolfy thing to do.

I said that last earlier when I didn't fully understand the role, and I thought your strategy was to actually come out as the Martyr. If you were indeed the Martyr and not night killed that night, I think it's quite logical to lynch you at that point.

That doesn't mean I won't lynch you on general principle, though. Your strategy only works to confuse the village, and so to my thinking, you are currently a negative for the village. That and your support for font's over the top run at EF.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by fontisian

Can we lynch EF? Please?

Why? I don't understand why you are coming at him so hard. Even if you're actually the seer, you still wouldn't know anything. You get some whiff of a read and then you marry yourself to it like concrete bricks on a mafia rat in the Hudson.

Your blind pursuit and lack of consideration for any other options is a detriment to the village. Right now, I view your actions as a negative to the village, and if I don't get a wolf read on someone, I will likely vote you.

[path12]

Originally Posted by Narcizo

Trying out a new / old thing (Hoops used to do it a bit like this). Can't say I like it to be honest so I'll probably be switching back.

FWIW I find that style useful but if you're the one doing them you should do whatever you find most comfortable.

[path12]

Originally Posted by Shoveler

To be honest, I was expecting you or font to get taken out.

Why? Not picking on you but I don't know how you think yet.

[path12]

Originally Posted by Narcizo

Yeah I used to think that. That said I think wolf-people are savvy enough to move their vote around even if it's all village.

But you've suggested yourself that the Brit kill suggests wolves that may not be that experienced.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by path12

Everybody claims village, right? Well, except Vaimes and fontisian who will claim town. I don't get this at all.

Exactly. New people/transports from other boards, pay attention here.

We have been playing so long, we don't even claim to be villagers anymore at the start, unless pressed. It used to be this joke that our first post would always claim vanilla villager. We even lynched people who didn't do this!

We have now gravitated to just assuming everyone is presumed to be a villager (no need to state it) unless they say otherwise or do something to cast doubt on that presumption.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by Vaimes

Come on, guys. Love yourself. More votes on EF.

Ditto my statement on font. It's a toss up between you two for me because I don't think either of you are helping the village.

[path12]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

I have heard this a few times from a number of posters. Strangely enough, I don't know why this is. I don't have a strategy devised to make me hard to read. Just Chief being Chief, I guess.

I think it serves you well.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by Autumn

You can't seriously be this sure of yourself day one.

Huge +1.

There are no mechanics in the game which would allow font to be that sure before the first deadline. If I am wrong and there are hidden mechanics, I would love for her to come out and explain.

[Raven]

Originally Posted by Narcizo

Also the (admittedly vague) theory of an inexperienced/not-around-at-deadline wolf team.

Mostly a prod vote though.

Vote Raven

Originally Posted by Narcizo

My second thought is that it indicates a team of newer players or, at least, that any veteran wasn't around to help decide.

Originally Posted by Narcizo

For that to work it would have to be an early read and then the wolves weren't around going into the last hour or so. I don't think wolves around near deadline would think he could be seer and not reveal when his head is on the block at 9:58.

Originally Posted by Narcizo

If someone does find an early read then that would be interesting as it suggests (to me at least) wolves who weren't around near deadline.

I'm paraphrasing your quotes here, but...
Why did you put this theory on me, when YOU are actually the one who keeps suggesting it?

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by JAG

Not a fan of pulling a tie at the end with unpredictable results if you're really a vanilla villager.

Neither am I. If I didn't get a villager read on EF's frustration after this, I would also be very much questioning this move.

[path12]

Originally Posted by Raven

I'm paraphrasing your quotes here, but...
Why did you put this theory on me, when YOU are actually the one who keeps suggesting it?

Narc can answer for himself but I didn't read what he wrote as putting his theory on you. Rather, I read it as just another reason to toss his vote your way.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by EagleFan

Was hoping we would both have been killed so it would end the questions right away.

vote Shoveler

He has piggy back voting. Thank them for going after brit, now it means that there were 3 villagers being voted for so that can be analyzed properly.

vote nightfall

Not putting myself through another day of BS so if you want to vote for me, vote for me. Kill me please.

I actually am wondering on Shoveler as well. Shoveler and Grover, who went early and completely off the chart from candidates with his Autumn vote. Perhaps he was busy after the morning, but it is an odd outlier vote that sounds traditionally wolfish to me.

Now as to the nightfall. That's chickenshit, EF. You're better than that.

I understand the irritation, but you got to handle it better.

[path12]

I love reading along when someone is catching up. Sometimes I find things I missed.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by EagleFan

Look at Shoveler. Says he will be around all day and basically only comes back after that gets questioned and then for a piggy back vote.

I see Shoveler has come back to responding to this, but EF's point resonates with me for some reason. Life gets in the way, but sometimes it's a strategy to hide behind. So it is something I am considering.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by Shoveler

I did not get a bad feel from any of them to be honest. EF went toe to toe with Font for a few posts, but that was the only weird behavior I identified, and it really wasn't much to go off of after how EF has played on day 1 in the past game or so.

As for the night, why kill one of the lead vote getters? It would make more sense to me to leave brit around to draw votes today.

I generally find that not commenting at all when you're around and a big debate is going around is wolfish behavior, keeping a low profile while the villagers fight it out. So whatever the reason, it looks bad to not be participating.

If I didn't know I was at my other job from 4-ish on and unable to be online, I would look askance at my own history of non-participation yesterday evening. It just doesn't look good.

As to your last point and I see Narc raises it later, it is a very curious move for sure.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by Narcizo

Just realised that there's a simultaneous day and night deadline, which means that Eagle probably wasn't scanned, unless someone rolled the dice on some meaty conditional instructions. So that puts him back on the table for discussion today. Ignore me. It's generally best.

I agree that EF probably wasn't scanned, given the circumstances. I don't agree that should put him back on the block. I just think it delays his scan to tonight.

[Grover]

CR: I mentioned a couple of times yesterday I wasn't going to be around past 5PM EST, due to my bowling league. That will happen again tonight.

That's why my innocuous vote on Jackal never moved.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by Narcizo

So why take out Brit? I've just realised that this is an occasion where the time stamps are actually pertinent and it's the one time I've missed them. Sorry about that.

1) Night deadline is the same time as day deadline. I forgot this because it never effects me but it's very important in this case.
2) Brit was leading the vote until 1 minute before lynch. He had been leading from #287 (21:19), when cheeki switched from Eagle to him. He was very much in the reckoning from 260 (20:48) when Autumn moved from Cheeki to him. In fact Brit was a strong candidate in the race from the me-and-Path double-whammy at #192/193, hours before.

So the wolves feel the need to take out one of the leading vote-getters and someone who looked like they were going to be lynched until last minute shenanigans - and I would argue that the kill order can't have been influenced by the last minute change as it seems doubtful they would have time to react to it and change their order appropriately.

Don't actually know what to make of that information. But I have to go for a bit now so I'll have a think about it.

Great post.

Even more at issue is that even if Zinto allowed the wolves to make conditionals based on the lynch results, he wouldn't have told them what happens in a tie. Just how many conditionals would have had to be sent in this situation?

No, I think brit was targeted for a kill earlier than the deadline. That said, it seems clear the wolves wanted to take out a leading vote getter, since brit was high on the block most of the day. Doing so seems to be nonsensical. My only thought is that they might have gotten a seer read off of him and decided that was more important. And that would mean EF is not a wolf because they would not leave a wolf EF as the one surviving candidate with two villagers in a three-man lynch vote (at least not to kill a possible seer on a whim--they would have held off and killed brit the next night).

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by Grover

So I do this same thing in the last game and get strung up for it. Nobody says a word of protest when EF does it.

Trust me, no one likes it. I posted it after you posted this, but a few posts up on this one, I call out EF for his move. It's a crap move, and I can't stand it.

It's just a game, people.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by Narcizo

Well he was on the block until 9:59 so it would have to be a pretty damned solid read to believe that when he didn't reveal at any stage. For that to work it would have to be an early read and then the wolves weren't around going into the last hour or so. I don't think wolves around near deadline would think he could be seer and not reveal when his head is on the block at 9:58.

Good point. That just makes the move even more curious.

It would like worse for EF to me, but I just don't read his reactions to being targeted as being wolfish. EF is brilliant and he could be playing us with this, but I don't think so. We have all been there, feeling helpless that no one will listen to what we're saying or seems to be against us for no reason at all.

It might be for meta-ish reasons, but what font said she had heard is true: villagers tend to get very irrational when targeted. And often upset and do emotional things.

[Shoveler]

Yep I completely understand that my intended participation yesterday versus the actual participation looks bad. I will try to rectify that going forward, but if it is to late, I guess it will be a lesson learned.

That being said. I'll be paying attention to the thread for the next couple hours, but I'm taking my son outside and then making him lunch. So I wont be at the computer to post. I guess I need to be more specific when I say I am "around". I can answer any questions and make comments once he goes down for a nap in a couple hours.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by path12

Why? Not picking on you but I don't know how you think yet.

Shoveler, I would like to hear more of your thoughts on this too (path's response above is in response to Shoveler)

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by path12

I think it serves you well.

Double-edged sword actually. It stops people from lynching me early, because they don't want to risk losing both a possible roled player and an experienced player.

But at some point, they vote to remove me on the basis that they can't trust me, even when I am a full on villager. That and the circular reasoning that if I am still alive after Day Three, I must be a wolf lol.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by path12

I love reading along when someone is catching up. Sometimes I find things I missed.

Heh... hope it helps!

[Zinto]

As of Post 439

EagleFan 2-Fontisian(355), Jag(356)
Shoveler 1-EagleFan(360)
Timmae 1-Path(361)
Raven 1-Narcizo(410)

Nightfall 1-EagleFan(360)

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by Grover

CR: I mentioned a couple of times yesterday I wasn't going to be around past 5PM EST, due to my bowling league. That will happen again tonight.

That's why my innocuous vote on Jackal never moved.

WOLF!!!

Okay, I kinda remember that but forgot.

[Chief Rum]

And forgive me not looking back, Grover, but why The Jackal? Regular meta/no-read Day One vote?

[Chief Rum]

Or Autumn, whoever you voted for. I forget and I don't have the vote list handy here.

[Raven]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

It might be for meta-ish reasons, but what font said she had heard is true: villagers tend to get very irrational when targeted. And often upset and do emotional things.

This. I've been there. I saw CF do it in the Mars game. I saw Grover do it when he called for nightfall. I saw GE respond this way when voted out early twice in a row (though he Duked the first game). And it seems to be EF's response here. It's an annoyed "fk this stupid game. I quit." emotional response to being lynched when you're a villager and no one believes you.

[Shoveler]

Originally Posted by path12

Why? Not picking on you but I don't know how you think yet.

Based on a conversation i had with autumn while we ran the last game. I made the comment to him that font and narc seemed to draw the early night kills. He basically told me that was standard wolf procedure to take out the villagers that were the highest threats early. Chief was also mentioned as a top 3 target.

[Grover]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

And forgive me not looking back, Grover, but why The Jackal? Regular meta/no-read Day One vote?

Because he's a Redskins fan.

Just the random vote to get discussion going. No other reason.

[Raven]

Originally Posted by path12

Narc can answer for himself but I didn't read what he wrote as putting his theory on you. Rather, I read it as just another reason to toss his vote your way.

This thought came to me too, but only after I realized it was his own theory. When I originally read it, and without knowing whose theory it was, it sounded like he was pinning it on me since it was all lumped together in one paragraph. Regardless, I am glad I clarified, because others may read it the way I originally did.

[path12]

Originally Posted by Grover

CR: I mentioned a couple of times yesterday I wasn't going to be around past 5PM EST, due to my bowling league. That will happen again tonight.

That's why my innocuous vote on Jackal never moved.

OK. So your last post was #204:

Originally Posted by Grover

Just a heads up to everyone. I will not be very active, if at all between 5PM EST and the deadline. I've got a bowling league tonight.

Hopefully that doesn't gain me any votes this time around!

Cool. But at that time, here was the vote (piecing together from Narcizo's recap):

Britrock 4 -- JAG (69), Autumn (107), Narc (192), path (193)
Cheeki 2 -- Shoveler (63), Jackal (160)
Vaimes 2 -- Britrock (115), Cheeki (179)
EagleFan 2 -- fontisian (61), Vaimes (71)
Autumn 2 -- timmae (99), Raven (171)
fontisian 1 -- EagleFan (96)
Jackal 1 -- Grover (104)

Things were clearly consolidating. But you still left your vote out there.

[Grover]

Originally Posted by path12

Things were clearly consolidating. But you still left your vote out there.

And I felt at the time, that I did not have nearly enough information to go off of to make a solid vote.

Not seeing the board again until after deadline makes it hard to vote in the end.

[path12]

Originally Posted by Grover

And I felt at the time, that I did not have nearly enough information to go off of to make a solid vote.

Not seeing the board again until after deadline makes it hard to vote in the end.

But nobody has a solid day 1 read.

And it wasn't like things were switching all over, the last vote before your post #204 was at 12:58 Pacific (mine on Brit). Post 204 was at 1:37 Pacific. The vote contenders were taking shape and you just decided not to, and that raises an eyebrow for me.