Werewolf LI Major League (GAME OVER!!! INDIANS--GOOD GUYS--WIN!!!)

[DaddyTorgo]

VOTE ST. CRONIN

vote subject to change if something more interesting comes along or if i continue to receive no support

[MikeVic]

Originally Posted by Barkeep49

Pass, I think Mike sounded as sure about ntn as he did me and hoops. He seemed fairly confident that all three of us were villagers. Obviously if he were a wolf, he'd know that and might be trying to use that information to gain trust. It's nothing substantial but it's out there.

I was just posting what my thoughts were on wolf/non-wolf based on yesterday's activity.

As for the step-it-up, I didn't submit one. I think it's a good idea for hoops to submit again today with a different group of people.

[st.cronin]

I think its a terrible idea for us to be saying at this point whether we stepped it up or not. Now, I know I said that I had between deadline and the processing - but that was partly a bluff. I'm certainly not going to say now whether I actually did or not.

[hoopsguy]

OK, we have a little more time today than we did yesterday - what approach should we take to determine who should "step it up"? Also, based on yesterday being on that list is potentially hazardous to your health.

Barkeep, why would the wolves want to win games? Based on what I've seen in the rules there isn't any kind of role out there that can tell if players are jaking it, sabotaging the team through their "step it up" uses, or anything of the sort. They have multiple victory conditions - why wouldn't they pursue both simultaneously if there is no downside to doing so?

[hoopsguy]

Originally Posted by st.cronin

I think its a terrible idea for us to be saying at this point whether we stepped it up or not. Now, I know I said that I had between deadline and the processing - but that was partly a bluff. I'm certainly not going to say now whether I actually did or not.

It makes it a lot harder to figure out the relative levels of talent if people don't share that information. Which is a double-edged sword, as the wolves learn the info as well. This scenario unfolds time and time again in werewolf games. My thoughts are that we benefit from conversation more than we do from "every man for himself".

If we don't share this information, then we are limited to the summary posts by Chief and the Scout to work through this evaluation. Which is fine, up until the Scout dies. Then where do we stand?

[KWhit]

Originally Posted by DaddyTorgo

VOTE ST. CRONIN

vote subject to change if something more interesting comes along or if i continue to receive no support

What is your argument against him again?

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by st.cronin

I think its a terrible idea for us to be saying at this point whether we stepped it up or not. Now, I know I said that I had between deadline and the processing - but that was partly a bluff. I'm certainly not going to say now whether I actually did or not.

What? Why did we go through all that trouble of trying to structure who would step it up, then? I mean, we spent so much time on that -- were you trying to distract us from setting up a structure yesterday? Why didn't you just say back then that you didn't think it was a good idea?

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

OK, we have a little more time today than we did yesterday - what approach should we take to determine who should "step it up"? Also, based on yesterday being on that list is potentially hazardous to your health.

Barkeep, why would the wolves want to win games? Based on what I've seen in the rules there isn't any kind of role out there that can tell if players are jaking it, sabotaging the team through their "step it up" uses, or anything of the sort. They have multiple victory conditions - why wouldn't they pursue both simultaneously if there is no downside to doing so?

Did BK say the wolves would want to win games, or just that they don't care if we win or lose games? The only reason I can see that a wolf would want to win a game is to gain the trust of the village -- if we win games, but the wolves kill us, it's all lost anyway.

[hoopsguy]

Originally Posted by MikeVic

One more thing about revealing players...

There's 14 players, and 16 names. The wolves know which of the 14 are playing, so they can assume the role of the other two. But the wolves don't know who each other are.

However, if a wolf sees an identity being claimed that wasn't in the list of 14 players in the game, they now know who the other wolf is. This is a big advantage for them isn't it? We may have already tipped the scales in the wolves favour.

Originally Posted by MikeVic

So when a player is stepping-it-up, they just PM the GM, and don't put anything in here? This is the same for the wolf skills?

Both of the quotes in bold had me blinking hard as I read them yesterday in a "he didn't just say that, did he???" kind of way. If MikeVic wasn't a first-time player I think I would probably have made a bigger deal out of these quotes. But these quotes are the reason I listed Mike as one of the three people who concerned me yesterday before putting in my vote. I understand the thought process on him being confident in the villager/villager showdown yesterday, but it didn't concern me as much as these quotes.

I think Mike would make an excellent candidate for our seer if he isn't the choice today in the voting.

[hoopsguy]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

Did BK say the wolves would want to win games, or just that they don't care if we win or lose games? The only reason I can see that a wolf would want to win a game is to gain the trust of the village -- if we win games, but the wolves kill us, it's all lost anyway.

I think the latter - that they don't care. But if I was a wolf and I could pursue my minor victory condition without compromising my major victory condition - and I don't see anything at all in the rules suggesting that there is a conflict between the two - then I would definitely do it. I would expect the same thought process from a collection of wolves who has spent time thinking about the rules even a little bit.

[st.cronin]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

What? Why did we go through all that trouble of trying to structure who would step it up, then? I mean, we spent so much time on that -- were you trying to distract us from setting up a structure yesterday? Why didn't you just say back then that you didn't think it was a good idea?

If the wolves know exactly who has "stepped it up" then that's a tremendous advantage for them. Likewise, if the wolves know exactly who is GOING to step it up tonight, that's a tremendous advantage for them. That was the theory behind the idea I put out - it would ration our "step ups" but also create enough deadline havoc that there could be room for some bluff.

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Both of the quotes in bold had me blinking hard as I read them yesterday in a "he didn't just say that, did he???" kind of way. If MikeVic wasn't a first-time player I think I would probably have made a bigger deal out of these quotes. But these quotes are the reason I listed Mike as one of the three people who concerned me yesterday before putting in my vote. I understand the thought process on him being confident in the villager/villager showdown yesterday, but it didn't concern me as much as these quotes.

I think Mike would make an excellent candidate for our seer if he isn't the choice today in the voting.

What would you make of the first quote? I guess it rolled off my pretty easily, since I remember that render asked the same thing in his first game. Are you thinking he was told to ask something like that, since it's an easy way to play dumb? It seems villager-esque to me, but that could be a contrivance.

The two quotes combined does make it seem like he could have some kind of role -- but why would you go telling everyone?

[hoopsguy]

When I said he is an excellent candidate for our seer, I meant for our seer to view. Not that I think he is the seer.

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

When I said he is an excellent candidate for our seer, I meant for our seer to view. Not that I think he is the seer.

Oh. Uh, never mind then.

[hoopsguy]

Originally Posted by st.cronin

If the wolves know exactly who has "stepped it up" then that's a tremendous advantage for them. Likewise, if the wolves know exactly who is GOING to step it up tonight, that's a tremendous advantage for them. That was the theory behind the idea I put out - it would ration our "step ups" but also create enough deadline havoc that there could be room for some bluff.

Based on what we have seen so far, the wolves can only target one person - so if we have a group of people that are going to submit a "step up" action we lessen the ability for the wolves to skew the outcome.

I don't like giving the wolves the gameplan, but the other end of the spectrum is that everyone decides for themselves and hordes their information. Then each of us has little context to evaluate what has taken place. I would rather try and make informed decisions, even if it gives the wolves more informed decisions. We have the advantage of numbers on them, which hopefully gives us enough time to compile worthwhile information. Like I mentioned earlier, it is a pretty standard werewolf scenario ...

[hoopsguy]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

Oh. Uh, never mind then.

OK, so lets all post who we think is the seer, bodyguard, scout, and duke


Seer - Swaggs
Bodyguard - RendeR
Scout - AlanT
Duke - Peregrine


Please, please, please - no one take this suggestion seriously and actually list players who are in the game!

[MikeVic]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Both of the quotes in bold had me blinking hard as I read them yesterday in a "he didn't just say that, did he???" kind of way. If MikeVic wasn't a first-time player I think I would probably have made a bigger deal out of these quotes. But these quotes are the reason I listed Mike as one of the three people who concerned me yesterday before putting in my vote. I understand the thought process on him being confident in the villager/villager showdown yesterday, but it didn't concern me as much as these quotes.

I think Mike would make an excellent candidate for our seer if he isn't the choice today in the voting.

I thought that wolves didn't know who each other are, but was then told that they do. I also thought the "night actions" were called "wolf skills." I'm not saying if I have a special role or not, and I don't know if saying why I was confused would go against the rules. I'll ask ChiefRum.

[hoopsguy]

Mike, I'm not gunning for you - yet. I've worked with the idea that the posts were indicative of a first-time player and I haven't moved off that position yet. But you are a topic of discussion at the moment since you have votes. And I wanted to expand the scope of the conversation to include some of my concerns from yesterday, since I had listed your name as someone who had me uneasy.

It is kind of funny - the guys who have played a bunch of games together always say that we want new players in the mix because we are tired of playing against the same group. However, when we get a new guy and don't know how to read him based on past games, we struggle. That is where I'm at right now with you ... which is fine and part of the game.

I'm glad you responded, as I believe having a conversation in the thread is a lot more enjoyable than posting thoughts that go unanswered. And I'm glad you are keeping your special role, or lack thereof, to yourself.

[MikeVic]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Mike, I'm not gunning for you - yet. I've worked with the idea that the posts were indicative of a first-time player and I haven't moved off that position yet. But you are a topic of discussion at the moment since you have votes. And I wanted to expand the scope of the conversation to include some of my concerns from yesterday, since I had listed your name as someone who had me uneasy.

It is kind of funny - the guys who have played a bunch of games together always say that we want new players in the mix because we are tired of playing against the same group. However, when we get a new guy and don't know how to read him based on past games, we struggle. That is where I'm at right now with you ... which is fine and part of the game.

I'm glad you responded, as I believe having a conversation in the thread is a lot more enjoyable than posting thoughts that go unanswered. And I'm glad you are keeping your special role, or lack thereof, to yourself.

That's understandable, and I agree that discussion is better.

If I were to vote right now, I have no idea who I would vote for based on being wolf or not. Nothing's been said today that has added new information for myself. I would only vote right now as self-preservation. Kind of hard to pick out a wolf right now.

[st.cronin]

For me, the key thing is that he seemed so sure that ntn was a "villager"- on day 2 or later, I'd entertain the idea that he was a seer, but on day 1 it just didn't add up, even with the explanation. I'm certainly not married to my vote, though. Lathum, path12, Gonzo, Pass and KWhit all make me a bit nervous.

[KWhit]

Originally Posted by MikeVic

I thought that wolves didn't know who each other are, but was then told that they do. I also thought the "night actions" were called "wolf skills." I'm not saying if I have a special role or not, and I don't know if saying why I was confused would go against the rules. I'll ask ChiefRum.

Not sure why you would think that night actions were called wolf skills unless that's how they were communicated to you. Which leads me to believe you are a wolf.

[KWhit]

Originally Posted by st.cronin

For me, the key thing is that he seemed so sure that ntn was a "villager"- on day 2 or later, I'd entertain the idea that he was a seer, but on day 1 it just didn't add up, even with the explanation. I'm certainly not married to my vote, though. Lathum, path12, Gonzo, Pass and KWhit all make me a bit nervous.

Why do I make you nervous?

[st.cronin]

Originally Posted by KWhit

Why do I make you nervous?

No good reason, just haven't really decided what to make of you in this game yet. "Making me nervous" is several steps below "making me suspicious."

[KWhit]

Originally Posted by st.cronin

No good reason, just haven't really decided what to make of you in this game yet. "Making me nervous" is several steps below "making me suspicious."

I hear ya. I don't have a good read on anybody yet except the a slight feeling that Hoops is good and MikeVic may be a wolf.

Other than that....

[MikeVic]

Originally Posted by KWhit

Not sure why you would think that night actions were called wolf skills unless that's how they were communicated to you. Which leads me to believe you are a wolf.

I've PM'd ChiefRum about my confusion, and how I can convey that here without breaking rules (if that's possible). If it's not possible, then I guess it's just my word.

[path12]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Jack Parkman should strongly consider embracing the power of voodoo. Perhaps Jack would like to have his bats blessed?

No one does the voodoo like yoodoo. Jack Parkman cracks Jack Parkman up.

Jack Parkman also got a weird vibe from the question about who Pedro was, even though Jack Parkman understands that most of the team is anonymous compared to the excellence that is Jack Parkman.

So......

VOTE DADDYTORGO

Jack Parkman reserves the right to change the vote, despite its insight and accuracy.

[hoopsguy]

Here is what I show for early votes, as of Post #426:

MikeVic - Cronin (377)
Cronin - Torgo (401)
Torgo - Path (426)

[path12]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Both of the quotes in bold had me blinking hard as I read them yesterday in a "he didn't just say that, did he???" kind of way. If MikeVic wasn't a first-time player I think I would probably have made a bigger deal out of these quotes. But these quotes are the reason I listed Mike as one of the three people who concerned me yesterday before putting in my vote. I understand the thought process on him being confident in the villager/villager showdown yesterday, but it didn't concern me as much as these quotes.

I think Mike would make an excellent candidate for our seer if he isn't the choice today in the voting.

Jack Parkman noticed those quotes also, and put it down to a rookie move. But Jack Parkman questions the wisdom of speculating on any of the special roles besides the wolves.

[MikeVic]

Originally Posted by path12

No one does the voodoo like yoodoo. Jack Parkman cracks Jack Parkman up.

Jack Parkman also got a weird vibe from the question about who Pedro was, even though Jack Parkman understands that most of the team is anonymous compared to the excellence that is Jack Parkman.

So......

VOTE DADDYTORGO

Jack Parkman reserves the right to change the vote, despite its insight and accuracy.

Looks like Pedro is a greater talent than Parkman though. But we have lost two catchers, so I guess we need one around.

[path12]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

When I said he is an excellent candidate for our seer, I meant for our seer to view. Not that I think he is the seer.

Jack Parkman is not going to say that Jack Parkman misunderstood the original comment, but rather say that Pedro was not clear enough in conveying the meaning.

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by path12

Jack Parkman is not going to say that Jack Parkman misunderstood the original comment, but rather say that Pedro was not clear enough in conveying the meaning.

Thanks for having my back, Jack Parkman!

[DaddyTorgo]

kwhit...my case for cronin: snuck a vote onto NTN during the run yesterday with no commentary. D1...checked in and said "havn't read the rules or thread or anything" and then 5 minutes later dropped a vote onto PurdueBrad of all people.

smelled very wolfish to me, so i said so, and he jumped all over me.

[path12]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

It is kind of funny - the guys who have played a bunch of games together always say that we want new players in the mix because we are tired of playing against the same group. However, when we get a new guy and don't know how to read him based on past games, we struggle. That is where I'm at right now with you ... which is fine and part of the game.

(OOC) I love having new players in the mix, but I hope they realize that quite often they will end up being lynched early. No offense. (/OOC)

[path12]

Originally Posted by KWhit

I don't have a good read on anybody yet except the a slight feeling that Hoops is good

Jack Parkman is not convinced of that at all.

[MikeVic]

Looking back, wouldn't this have been a better way to keep track of step-it-ups:

Instead of revealing who we are, we would tell Pedro, Hays, Wild Thing, Parkman, or whoever to step-it-up... and it would be up to the people with those identities to step-it-up. But then the wolves couldn't make the connection between movie role and FOFC name?

[path12]

Jack Parkman thinks another option would be to announce after the deadline but before results whether or not someone else decided to step up for once besides Jack Parkman.

[Passacaglia]

What does Jack Parkman think about people who can't be around at deadline?

[KWhit]

Originally Posted by DaddyTorgo

kwhit...my case for cronin: snuck a vote onto NTN during the run yesterday with no commentary. D1...checked in and said "havn't read the rules or thread or anything" and then 5 minutes later dropped a vote onto PurdueBrad of all people.

smelled very wolfish to me, so i said so, and he jumped all over me.

Gotcha. I remember that now.

I agree that someone in the ntndeacon run is likely a wolf. I put the first vote on him due to inactivity and left for the day. Then when I came back, I was very surprised to see that he had won the vote.

I wasn't around for the moves, but reading back through them it seemed strange for so many to switch like that without a real clear reason to do so.

Typical day 1 weirdness, at the very least. Not sure if it means anything more than that yet or not.

[hoopsguy]

Hmmm, I really thought that I would get a little more trust for winning the game yesterday than I have received so far, but so be it. For what it is worth, I'll be considering "key player in win" as a fairly big check in the good column in coming days.

As far as "step it up" strategy goes, I've thought hard about having us delay that decision until close to the deadline. We appoint someone that we trust to make the decision for the day and he will definitely step it up. Additionally, he calls out 3-4 other people who are also in the thread near deadline (which will happen now that we have a normal deadline, right???) to submit their step it up action.

That will put the wolves on the defensive in terms of getting their action in against one of those players, but it also makes life tougher on the bodyguard, seer, and scout if they want their actions to be tied to someone who is going to step it up for a given day. And another obvious flaw is if the person doing the picking is a wolf, but if he doesn't make requests to 3-4 other players then we turn up the heat on him. I also think that people in the thread near deadline would act on their own if the appointed picker isn't doing his job.

Anyway, that is one alternate solution that I've been mulling this morning. Don't know that it is the best one, but it should help with obscuring our actions from the wolves.

[KWhit]

Originally Posted by path12

Jack Parkman is not convinced of that at all.

This is in reference to my statement that Hoops is looking slightly good in my opinion.

I agree that we don't know anything at this point about his true colors, but we do know that he stepped it up last night which at the very least means that he tried to help us win the game. Could be a wolf ploy, but at least it's something. Something is better than nothing, and at this point, it is a slight indicator toward him being likely good in my book.

[hoopsguy]

If I was getting to pick the step-ups for today, here is who I would want going:

Me - highest talent guy from yesterday, as shown in the results
Torgo
Barkeep
KWhit
Jonathan

The other four are guys who (I think) have claimed guys that were not in the movies. If one of them rates ahead of Pedro Cerrano then that would allow me to put the notion of talent being related to movie prominence to bed. However, if Cerrano is once again the focal point in a win then I'll argue very strongly about the importance of the bigger movie characters playing a larger role in wins.

Having this information allows us to much more closely evaluate night actions. It also helps set priorities for the bodyguard and seer - they should start with the people who have the most impact on us winning games, all other things being equal.

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

If I was getting to pick the step-ups for today, here is who I would want going:

Me - highest talent guy from yesterday, as shown in the results
Torgo
Barkeep
KWhit
Jonathan

The other four are guys who (I think) have claimed guys that were not in the movies. If one of them rates ahead of Pedro Cerrano then that would allow me to put the notion of talent being related to movie prominence to bed. However, if Cerrano is once again the focal point in a win then I'll argue very strongly about the importance of the bigger movie characters playing a larger role in wins.

Having this information allows us to much more closely evaluate night actions. It also helps set priorities for the bodyguard and seer - they should start with the people who have the most impact on us winning games, all other things being equal.

I don't see a problem with that, and I trust hoops enough to go with this plan.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

OK, so lets all post who we think is the seer, bodyguard, scout, and duke


Seer - Swaggs
Bodyguard - RendeR
Scout - AlanT
Duke - Peregrine


Please, please, please - no one take this suggestion seriously and actually list players who are in the game!

hmmm, it's not like hoops to not even realize who is in the game

[KWhit]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

If I was getting to pick the step-ups for today, here is who I would want going:

Me - highest talent guy from yesterday, as shown in the results
Torgo
Barkeep
KWhit
Jonathan

The other four are guys who (I think) have claimed guys that were not in the movies. If one of them rates ahead of Pedro Cerrano then that would allow me to put the notion of talent being related to movie prominence to bed. However, if Cerrano is once again the focal point in a win then I'll argue very strongly about the importance of the bigger movie characters playing a larger role in wins.

Having this information allows us to much more closely evaluate night actions. It also helps set priorities for the bodyguard and seer - they should start with the people who have the most impact on us winning games, all other things being equal.

I think that's a pretty good idea. But it may not tell us the whole story. Your guy is obviously the strongest of those that stepped it up last night. If you turn out to be the strongest tonight, that doesn't necessarily mean that the player talent is all based on the movie prominence. It might just mean that you happen to be strongest (either by movie tie-in or by random chance).

I kind of think that we'd get a better indication of how roles tie in with talent if it's not you that we lump in with the no-names, but someone else who hasn't been shown to be a high talent player.

However, part of me wants to use all of your 3 step it ups as fast as possible in case you're nigght killed by wolves. So maybe you should go ahead and step it up tonight anyway.

Thoughts?

[Barkeep49]

I like the idea of testing the group of us not in the movie versus hoops who we know to have powers.

[Barkeep49]

Originally Posted by KWhit

I think that's a pretty good idea. But it may not tell us the whole story. Your guy is obviously the strongest of those that stepped it up last night. If you turn out to be the strongest tonight, that doesn't necessarily mean that the player talent is all based on the movie prominence. It might just mean that you happen to be strongest (either by movie tie-in or by random chance).

I kind of think that we'd get a better indication of how roles tie in with talent if it's not you that we lump in with the no-names, but someone else who hasn't been shown to be a high talent player.

However, part of me wants to use all of your 3 step it ups as fast as possible in case you're nigght killed by wolves. So maybe you should go ahead and step it up tonight anyway.

Thoughts?

I don't think his stepping up gives us evidence that there is a movie tie in but if one of the scrubs steps it up more that gives us conclusive evidence that it's not. The whole it's easier to prove the negative than the positive.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by st.cronin

I'm certainly not married to my vote, though. Lathum, path12, Gonzo, Pass and KWhit all make me a bit nervous.

I find it odd that you would leave daddytorgo off this list despite him coming after you for 2 straight days. Seems to me we could have 2 wolves playing off each other.

[KWhit]

Originally Posted by Barkeep49

I don't think his stepping up gives us evidence that there is a movie tie in but if one of the scrubs steps it up more that gives us conclusive evidence that it's not. The whole it's easier to prove the negative than the positive.

I'll buy that. I like the idea of hoops going ahead and using his abilities asap anyway, since he's a possible candidate for a wolf kill.

[st.cronin]

Originally Posted by Lathum

I find it odd that you would leave daddytorgo off this list despite him coming after you for 2 straight days. Seems to me we could have 2 wolves playing off each other.

I used to always think, as a villager, that somebody gunning for me must be a wolf. But I think that's almost never true, so I look for other evidence first.

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by st.cronin

I used to always think, as a villager, that somebody gunning for me must be a wolf. But I think that's almost never true, so I look for other evidence first.

I agree with that line of thinking. I've found that it doesn't help the village to accuse someone *just* because they're accusing you. At least, not early on.