Werewolf Small Game V: FOFC MRSKIPPY AND HORNSMANIAC WIN!!! - Page 9

Lorena · 01-29-2007, 02:43 PM

Hmm... Lathum, you were the second vote on me (day2), wvufan (day4), and now spleen. Interesting and you didn't vote for Jeebs.

Lorena · 01-29-2007, 02:46 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lathum

I am curious to hear from Spleen why he has been up my ass the whole game. He really hasn't given any good reason. To me this game has been ripe with clues. I uncovered something else today that makes me think there may have indeed been a conversion which makes todays vote all the more important.

Is that right, mind letting us in on it?

spleen1015 · 01-29-2007, 02:54 PM

I'm up your ass because you've been up mine. You said early, day 2 or 3, that I posted something that made you suspicious. You vote for me and every else does. Then, late in the day, you switch, then every else does. That happened two days in a row.

Why?

Because I think you have a strategy and you're getting the rest of the group to follow along somehow.

You just voted for me because you said it was the obvious choice. Tell me why I'm the obvious choice.

Lathum · 01-29-2007, 02:54 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dodgerchick

Hmm... Lathum, you were the second vote on me (day2), wvufan (day4), and now spleen. Interesting and you didn't vote for Jeebs.

this whole second vote thing is over rated. The day I was the second vote for you there were 9 people left to vote, my vote was hardly signing your death sentance.

If you want to use vote logic the day you were lynched the vote was 4-4-1 when path cast the fifth vote for you with 2 people left. Far more damning then my vote. shrug.

As for the jeeber vote I cast my vote for WVUfan that day. The run on jeeber was pretty rapid, had I changed my vote it would have been percieved as bandwagoning, so like saldana said, damned if you do and damned if you dont.

My vote for spleen today is obvious. He has gone after me for 3 days with no good reason despite the fact that our seer said he trusts me. I can only assume he is going to vote for me today so I need to counter that.

Lathum · 01-29-2007, 03:00 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dodgerchick

Hmm... Lathum, you were the second vote on me (day2), wvufan (day4), and now spleen. Interesting and you didn't vote for Jeebs.

Quote:

Originally Posted by spleen1015

I'm up your ass because you've been up mine. You said early, day 2 or 3, that I posted something that made you suspicious. You vote for me and every else does. Then, late in the day, you switch, then every else does. That happened two days in a row.

Why?

Because I think you have a strategy and you're getting the rest of the group to follow along somehow.

You just voted for me because you said it was the obvious choice. Tell me why I'm the obvious choice.

ok, first point. You made me suspicous because I indicated I suspected who the seer was and you attempted to get me to reveal that information.

I don't see how I have gotten anyone to follow along with me. I posted my trust list an opinions and updated them as we went along. I have in no way come out strongly against anyone or tried to sway the vote. If you think otherwise please direct me to the post #

I even unvoted you and backed off my vote for you.

You are the obvious vote for me today because I can only assume you are going to vote for me.

spleen1015 · 01-29-2007, 03:03 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lathum

My vote for spleen today is obvious. He has gone after me for 3 days with no good reason despite the fact that our seer said he trusts me. I can only assume he is going to vote for me today so I need to counter that.

Show me a post where the seer says they just you more than me. The last time he posted any trust list, you and I were equal.

Lorena · 01-29-2007, 03:03 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DaddyTorgo

So we have:

12/15 left...I'd say likely facing 2 evil now (mrskippy must have started with conversion ability).

Left:
DC (confirmed good)
DT (confirmed good...could i really put myself elsewhere)
Blade (strongly believed to be good)

10/12 ?'s:
Barkeep elevated above spleen/lathum .
spleen slightly elevated at this point and lathum slightly elevated too.

7 True ?'s

Lathum,is this the post you're referring to when you say our seer trusted you? I don't see "slightly elevated" to mean completely trusted and you seem to be pushing that quite a bit.

unvote saldana
vote lathum

Lathum · 01-29-2007, 03:03 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Raiders Army

After a night where there is no protection from evil, there is no hero with a sandwich to protect you, and there is still mrskippy creating mayhem, you realize that Alan T is banned from the board. It appears as if it is the work of someone other than mrskippy...
Day 3 begins and lynch votes are due at 10 PM EST.

I'm wondering if this was pointed out because mrskippy was out doing a conversion. If there was gonna be a conversion this seems like the best time. We just lost the BG so there was a free shot at whoever they wanted.

spleen1015 · 01-29-2007, 03:04 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lathum

You are the obvious vote for me today because I can only assume you are going to vote for me.

You are who I want to vote for today, but I am going to wait and see what happens. If it comes down to 2 other people, I want to be the deciding vote.

Lathum · 01-29-2007, 03:04 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by spleen1015

Show me a post where the seer says they just you more than me. The last time he posted any trust list, you and I were equal.

yes and then after that HE VOTED FOR YOU!!!! why would he say he trusted you and then vote for you. That makes no sense

Lathum · 01-29-2007, 03:06 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DaddyTorgo

Nice analysis Lathum. Wrong about me. And I believe wrong about Barkeep too. We had similar thoughts on Blade, which was essentially forcing the wolves to night-kill him in order to save someone else who was good and active.

Honestly I think that's a very pro-villager viewpoint. And I'm not comfortable voting for him based on that. I'd much rather vote Path, or Spleen who have made a couple interesting moves, as you yourself noted.

exibit 1

Lathum · 01-29-2007, 03:07 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DaddyTorgo

VOTE SPLEEN

i'm with you on that lathum, like i said. glad you came around.

exibit 2

Lathum · 01-29-2007, 03:09 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by spleen1015

Who are you believing as the seer then? If the seer is telling you to vote for me because I am bad, then you need to vote for them because they are lying.

why would anyone ask this question and risk outing the seer?

spleen1015 · 01-29-2007, 03:09 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lathum

yes and then after that HE VOTED FOR YOU!!!! why would he say he trusted you and then vote for you. That makes no sense

Sorry. Wrong Answer.

With post 264 he unvoted me the one time he was voting for me.

With post 275 be posted his trust list where you and I are equal on that list.

With post 309 he votes for Jeeber.

He never gets to vote again because you killed him that night!

spleen1015 · 01-29-2007, 03:10 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lathum

why would anyone ask this question and risk outing the seer?

You have a valid point, but the reason I asked the question occumpanied the rest of that post.

Lathum · 01-29-2007, 03:11 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DaddyTorgo

i can sympathize. i'm still in the lasting-long phase myself but i'm sure i'll be frustrated.

well, give me an alternative person to target spleen and I'm open to it. i mean as long as it's not blade/barkeep/dc/lathum (i suppose).

exibit 3.

I don't see your name on that list. To be fair I don't know if where he says "i suppose" refers solely to me or to all 4 on that list

spleen1015 · 01-29-2007, 03:11 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lathum

exibit 1

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lathum

exibit 2

Posted before his final trust list.

Lorena · 01-29-2007, 03:14 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lathum

yes and then after that HE VOTED FOR YOU!!!! why would he say he trusted you and then vote for you. That makes no sense

Lathum, that is incorrect. If you pull up DT's most recent trust list the next person he voted for was JeeberD and ended up dying the same night.

path12 · 01-29-2007, 03:15 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dodgerchick

I dunno, this has been a difficult game because there's nothing going on; we got lucky with Jeebs... nothing gave him away. Actually, come to think of it, path narrowly escaped death and later said he was having a great WW day. Not sure if that meant because he's actually evil this game and escaped, or what.

I was referring to the other game, sorry. And I have been doing some catching up but am busier today than I had planned. I hope to be in thread for awhile by mid-afternoon.

Lorena · 01-29-2007, 03:16 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by spleen1015

Sorry. Wrong Answer.

With post 264 he unvoted me the one time he was voting for me.

With post 275 be posted his trust list where you and I are equal on that list.

With post 309 he votes for Jeeber.

He never gets to vote again because you killed him that night!

DOH, got to it before I did.

Lathum · 01-29-2007, 03:16 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by spleen1015

Posted before his final trust list.

they were still posted after night 2 where he had a scan. Had he scanned you and you came up good he wouldn't have made those posts or voted for you

Lathum · 01-29-2007, 03:18 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dodgerchick

Lathum, that is incorrect. If you pull up DT's most recent trust list the next person he voted for was JeeberD and ended up dying the same night.

OK, listen. I understand all of that. I know he unvoted spleen and he had him on his elevated trust list. I realize that. My point is that he voted for him before all that which means THERE IS NO WAY SPLEEN COULD HAVE BEEN SCANNED BY DT.

spleen1015 · 01-29-2007, 03:28 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lathum

THERE IS NO WAY SPLEEN COULD HAVE BEEN SCANNED BY DT.

No one has ever said that he did.

Lathum · 01-29-2007, 03:29 PM

Probibility of being scanned by DT before he died

1. Chief Rum--Banned Night 1- not likely, I assume if he was DT would have witnessed the kill

2. Dodgerchick- Cleared as skydog day 2- not likely

3. spleen1015- DT's original vote day 3 not likely unless he was scanned a bad

4. Barkeep49--probably night 1 scan

5. WVUFan--possible night 2 scan

6. LoneStarGirl- possible night 2 scan

7. Lathum- possible night 2 scan

8. DaddyTorgo duh!

9. saldana- blade's actions pretty much cleared him- not likely

10. path12- not likely since DT mentioned he suspected him in a post

11. JeeberD (mrskippy)--duh

12. GoldenEagle (Hell Atlantic)--Banned by SkyDog Day 2- not likely night one scan

13. Alan T--Banned Night 2-possible night 2 scan but like I mentioned with chief rum, I think it possible DT would have witnessed the kill

Lathum · 01-29-2007, 03:31 PM

that leaves LSG, WVUFAN, Lathum. Of those 3 I am the only one our seer mentioned with elevated trust.

Lorena · 01-29-2007, 03:33 PM

Hmm... I see where you're coming from Lathum, I re-read Daddy's posts involving spleen

Quote:

Originally Posted by DaddyTorgo

Nice analysis Lathum. Wrong about me. And I believe wrong about Barkeep too. We had similar thoughts on Blade, which was essentially forcing the wolves to night-kill him in order to save someone else who was good and active.

Honestly I think that's a very pro-villager viewpoint. And I'm not comfortable voting for him based on that. I'd much rather vote Path, or Spleen who have made a couple interesting moves, as you yourself noted.

The bold part makes me think that DT might have scanned you. And yes, DT did vote for spleen but unvoted him which makes me think he probably didn't know what spleen was.

Hmmm... not sure where to go here.

unvote lathum

(sorry RA)

spleen1015 · 01-29-2007, 04:28 PM

We're in a touch spot. We're 5 vanilla villagers fighting a lone wolf.

We'll just have to get lucky.

The below comments will probably seal my fate for today.

I think we should go no lynch today. We have 6 people left. With a lynch today and a night kill tonight, we're at 4. Lynch tomorrow and night kill ends the game. That's assuming we don't get the wolf ahead of time.

If we don't kill today, then we get to decide the game with a lynch vote on Day 7 instead of a night kill on Night 6. Essentially, our odds are better avoiding a lynch today and waiting for Day 7. Today we have a 1 in 5 shot getting the wolf. We could delay that to 50-50 on Day 7 if things go the right way.

LoneStarGirl · 01-29-2007, 04:33 PM

For now

Lynch Lathum

DC has brought up some great points and since she is the only one I trust...

Lathum · 01-29-2007, 04:36 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by LoneStarGirl

For now

Lynch Lathum

DC has brought up some great points and since she is the only one I trust...

maybe you should get to the point where she unvotes me then...

spleen1015 · 01-29-2007, 04:36 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lathum

maybe you should get to the point where she unvotes me then...

Lathum · 01-29-2007, 04:39 PM

BTW I think it's very possible the remaining wolf or wolves are sitting back and laughting at me and spleen

Lorena · 01-29-2007, 04:42 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lathum

maybe you should get to the point where she unvotes me then...

HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA

spleen1015 · 01-29-2007, 04:44 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lathum

BTW I think it's very possible the remaining wolf or wolves are sitting back and laughting at me and spleen

That thought has occured to me as well.

Lathum · 01-29-2007, 04:48 PM

UNVOTE SPLEEN
VOTE LONESTARGIRL

her vote for me set off all kind of alarm bells plus the fact that she pointed out she was the first one to vote for Jeeber. DC made a good point about that not meaning much.

Lorena · 01-29-2007, 04:51 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lathum

BTW I think it's very possible the remaining wolf or wolves are sitting back and laughting at me and spleen

Heh, I was thinking at how hard they must have laughed after I offed GoldenEagle.

Lorena · 01-29-2007, 05:00 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lathum

UNVOTE SPLEEN
VOTE LONESTARGIRL

her vote for me set off all kind of alarm bells plus the fact that she pointed out she was the first one to vote for Jeeber. DC made a good point about that not meaning much.

I was thinking about that but wasn't sure if I posted or not.

Okay, I just looked back and yes, she was the first to vote on Jeeber and never checked back. Her post after he got banned was something about "Thank you call me Mrs. Werewolf" or something. I kinda wonder if she casted her vote meaning it as a "throwaway" and didn't realize he'd actually be on the chopping block.

Lathum · 01-29-2007, 05:03 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dodgerchick

I was thinking about that but wasn't sure if I posted or not.

Okay, I just looked back and yes, she was the first to vote on Jeeber and never checked back. Her post after he got banned was something about "Thank you call me Mrs. Werewolf" or something. I kinda wonder if she casted her vote meaning it as a "throwaway" and didn't realize he'd actually be on the chopping block.

I dunno, all I know is I have seen WAY to many of these games where 2 villegars were going at one another while the baddies sat back, watched, dropped in with a vote, then stayed out of the way.

Path and LSG fit that profile

Lorena · 01-29-2007, 05:12 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by LoneStarGirl

DC has brought up some great points and since she is the only one I trust...

Oh gosh I hope you're not voting for him because I am because I'm as clueless as any of you.

Lathum · 01-29-2007, 05:24 PM

here is why LSG's vote set off alarm bells.

At that point spleen had 2 votes

LSG was under the impression DC had voted for me. Spleen already claimed he wanted to be the deciding vote. LSG's vote would make it 2-2. That pretty much forces path to do 3 things. Vote for a third party and let spleen vote for me, vote spleen and force spleen to vote for me creating a tie, vote me and let spleen top it off. All 3 outcomes favorable to the bad guy (s). A clever way to hide your vote

Lorena · 01-29-2007, 05:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lathum

here is why LSG's vote set off alarm bells.

At that point spleen had 2 votes

LSG was under the impression DC had voted for me. Spleen already claimed he wanted to be the deciding vote. LSG's vote would make it 2-2. That pretty much forces path to do 3 things. Vote for a third party and let spleen vote for me, vote spleen and force spleen to vote for me creating a tie, vote me and let spleen top it off. All 3 outcomes favorable to the bad guy (s). A clever way to hide your vote

Niiiiice, I can go with that logic

vote lonestargirl

path12 · 01-29-2007, 06:02 PM

LSG's vote smells bad.

VOTE LSG

Usual caveat that I always read LSG as bad, though.

path12 · 01-29-2007, 06:16 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lathum

I'm wondering if this was pointed out because mrskippy was out doing a conversion. If there was gonna be a conversion this seems like the best time. We just lost the BG so there was a free shot at whoever they wanted.

If there was a conversion, obviously the cleared list changes. Was that night 3? If so, then DT's clears are suspect, as well as DC.

If you were going to convert, who would it be? I don't think it would be DC because I think that's just a little too obvious. Barkeep, yes. Spleen, no (too much heat). Lathum, yes. Saldana (knowing Blade gained some trust by dropping out of the game), yes. WVU we know is a no. I know I'm a no.

I think we're down to a matter of elimination here. I really think LSG is our best choice right now. If that's not right I think it's a little more dicey. At that point I think it would be useful to start looking at changes in posts/voting irregularities. But without a seer this devolves into a guessing game somewhat, especially if the wolf decides to just stay under the radar (and yes, I realize that fits my personality this game perfectly. I have no excuse, in hindsight I should have known I wasn't going to be able to give this the attention it deserves and I would certainly understand a lynch my way. It would at least be helpful in the sense that you would have another clear, but unhelpful in the sense that we'd be getting down to numbers at that point).

saldana · 01-29-2007, 06:44 PM

ok lathum, i will buy your logic on LSG's vote which is the only reason i am changing, but if she ends up good, it will be an easy choice for me tomorrow.

unvote spleen
vote lsg

path12 · 01-29-2007, 06:57 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by saldana

ok lathum, i will buy your logic on LSG's vote which is the only reason i am changing, but if she ends up good, it will be an easy choice for me tomorrow.

unvote spleen
vote lsg

My main reason I suspect Lathum is because I don't know that I've ever seen him do so much analysis in thread (not to say you don't analyze, but usually don't post it a ton). It makes me worry about the Alan helpful villager ploy.

My God, can this post be any more meta? Bleah. Never mind.

Lathum · 01-29-2007, 08:07 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by path12

My main reason I suspect Lathum is because I don't know that I've ever seen him do so much analysis in thread (not to say you don't analyze, but usually don't post it a ton). It makes me worry about the Alan helpful villager ploy.

My God, can this post be any more meta? Bleah. Never mind.

your pretty much right but I have had some extra time during this game and the basic games are always much easier for me to follow.

spleen1015 · 01-29-2007, 08:27 PM

VOTE LoneStarGirl

Raiders Army · 01-29-2007, 09:58 PM

After wavering back and forth in the beginning of the day, the decision is overwhelmingly to ban LoneStarGirl. SkyDog types in the command to ban her.

...she is not HornsManiac.

Night 5 begins.

Lorena · 01-29-2007, 10:00 PM

Well shit

Raiders Army · 01-29-2007, 10:01 PM

After a short night, you realize that saldana cannot post any messages. He is BANNED!

Day 6 begins and votes are due by 10 PM EST Tuesday.

Lorena · 01-29-2007, 10:05 PM

vote lathum

Quite simply, he led the charge against LSG and she came up good. Dammit, we had a lot of evidence against him and we let him slide. Grrr...

01-29-2007, 06:02 PM	#441
path12 Coordinator Join Date: Feb 2003 Location: Seattle, WA	LSG's vote smells bad. VOTE LSG Usual caveat that I always read LSG as bad, though. __________________ We have always been at war with Eastasia.

01-29-2007, 02:43 PM	#401
Lorena Unregistered Join Date: May 2004	Hmm... Lathum, you were the second vote on me (day2), wvufan (day4), and now spleen. Interesting and you didn't vote for Jeebs.

01-29-2007, 02:54 PM	#403
spleen1015 Coordinator Join Date: Sep 2003	I'm up your ass because you've been up mine. You said early, day 2 or 3, that I posted something that made you suspicious. You vote for me and every else does. Then, late in the day, you switch, then every else does. That happened two days in a row. Why? Because I think you have a strategy and you're getting the rest of the group to follow along somehow. You just voted for me because you said it was the obvious choice. Tell me why I'm the obvious choice.

01-29-2007, 03:29 PM	#424
Lathum Favored Bitch #1 Join Date: Dec 2001 Location: homeless in NJ	Probibility of being scanned by DT before he died 1. Chief Rum--Banned Night 1- not likely, I assume if he was DT would have witnessed the kill 2. Dodgerchick- Cleared as skydog day 2- not likely 3. spleen1015- DT's original vote day 3 not likely unless he was scanned a bad 4. Barkeep49--probably night 1 scan 5. WVUFan--possible night 2 scan 6. LoneStarGirl- possible night 2 scan 7. Lathum- possible night 2 scan 8. DaddyTorgo duh! 9. saldana- blade's actions pretty much cleared him- not likely 10. path12- not likely since DT mentioned he suspected him in a post 11. JeeberD (mrskippy)--duh 12. GoldenEagle (Hell Atlantic)--Banned by SkyDog Day 2- not likely night one scan 13. Alan T--Banned Night 2-possible night 2 scan but like I mentioned with chief rum, I think it possible DT would have witnessed the kill

01-29-2007, 03:31 PM	#425
Lathum Favored Bitch #1 Join Date: Dec 2001 Location: homeless in NJ	that leaves LSG, WVUFAN, Lathum. Of those 3 I am the only one our seer mentioned with elevated trust.

01-29-2007, 04:28 PM	#427
spleen1015 Coordinator Join Date: Sep 2003	We're in a touch spot. We're 5 vanilla villagers fighting a lone wolf. We'll just have to get lucky. The below comments will probably seal my fate for today. I think we should go no lynch today. We have 6 people left. With a lynch today and a night kill tonight, we're at 4. Lynch tomorrow and night kill ends the game. That's assuming we don't get the wolf ahead of time. If we don't kill today, then we get to decide the game with a lynch vote on Day 7 instead of a night kill on Night 6. Essentially, our odds are better avoiding a lynch today and waiting for Day 7. Today we have a 1 in 5 shot getting the wolf. We could delay that to 50-50 on Day 7 if things go the right way.

01-29-2007, 04:33 PM	#428
LoneStarGirl College Starter Join Date: Jan 2005 Location: Little Rock, AR	For now Lynch Lathum DC has brought up some great points and since she is the only one I trust...

01-29-2007, 04:39 PM	#431
Lathum Favored Bitch #1 Join Date: Dec 2001 Location: homeless in NJ	BTW I think it's very possible the remaining wolf or wolves are sitting back and laughting at me and spleen

01-29-2007, 04:48 PM	#434
Lathum Favored Bitch #1 Join Date: Dec 2001 Location: homeless in NJ	UNVOTE SPLEEN VOTE LONESTARGIRL her vote for me set off all kind of alarm bells plus the fact that she pointed out she was the first one to vote for Jeeber. DC made a good point about that not meaning much.

01-29-2007, 05:24 PM	#439
Lathum Favored Bitch #1 Join Date: Dec 2001 Location: homeless in NJ	here is why LSG's vote set off alarm bells. At that point spleen had 2 votes LSG was under the impression DC had voted for me. Spleen already claimed he wanted to be the deciding vote. LSG's vote would make it 2-2. That pretty much forces path to do 3 things. Vote for a third party and let spleen vote for me, vote spleen and force spleen to vote for me creating a tie, vote me and let spleen top it off. All 3 outcomes favorable to the bad guy (s). A clever way to hide your vote

01-29-2007, 06:44 PM	#443
saldana Pro Starter Join Date: Aug 2005 Location: Bethlehem, Pa	ok lathum, i will buy your logic on LSG's vote which is the only reason i am changing, but if she ends up good, it will be an easy choice for me tomorrow. unvote spleen vote lsg

01-29-2007, 08:27 PM	#446
spleen1015 Coordinator Join Date: Sep 2003	VOTE LoneStarGirl

01-29-2007, 09:58 PM	#447
Raiders Army Coordinator Join Date: Oct 2000 Location: The Black Hole	After wavering back and forth in the beginning of the day, the decision is overwhelmingly to ban LoneStarGirl. SkyDog types in the command to ban her. ...she is not HornsManiac. Night 5 begins.

01-29-2007, 10:00 PM	#448
Lorena Unregistered Join Date: May 2004	Well shit

01-29-2007, 10:01 PM	#449
Raiders Army Coordinator Join Date: Oct 2000 Location: The Black Hole	After a short night, you realize that saldana cannot post any messages. He is BANNED! Day 6 begins and votes are due by 10 PM EST Tuesday.

01-29-2007, 10:05 PM	#450
Lorena Unregistered Join Date: May 2004	vote lathum Quite simply, he led the charge against LSG and she came up good. Dammit, we had a lot of evidence against him and we let him slide. Grrr...

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