Werewolf CXXV - Vegas, Baby - VILLAGERS WIN

[ntndeacon]

Originally Posted by JAG

Well, that's odd. Do they think if you were a wolf you would confirm it by voting elsewhere?

Lynching Jackal is double-edged. If we really think he's a wolf we should lynch him asap before he can transfer money to teammates or buy services. If he's a villager, we're really shooting ourselves in the foot.

Agreed. I think this person was trying to bring some dialog between us.

In terms of Jackal, I wonder that since the wolves can pool thier money can they also transfer it without buying that service?

[Darth Vilus]

Originally Posted by The Jackal

That's fair DV. Obviously we all know why I voted for J at the beginning of the day (though I think my reasoning aside was sound!). Was just luck that he ended up getting lynched on my part.

And this underscores my point, a wolf could easily make this defense for their actions. We have no way of knowing whis while Jackal is alive. that's why lyncjing jackal is much more beneficial than lynching me today.

[The Jackal]

Originally Posted by Darth Vilus

And this underscores my point, a wolf could easily make this defense for their actions. We have no way of knowing whis while Jackal is alive. that's why lyncjing jackal is much more beneficial than lynching me today.

Except at this point I'm much more beneficial to the village with my money. I understand you're trying to save yourself, but I can make efforts towards proving that I'm good while at the same time helping everyone. Don't think I should be punished for guessing properly on day one. If you had a different candidate in mind, I might listen, but going hard at me is bad for the village.

I'd like to hear what hoops has to say on this matter, since I remember him pinging me with the idea that Lathum or DV might be a wolf because of the movement towards J near the end. That was one of the reasons that was pushing me towards you today, aside from the value of voting history.

[ntndeacon]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

And you believe that person?

I don't think that person knows anymore than I do. and I am not sure I will stick with my vote either.

[Darth Vilus]

Well it looks like everyone is going to have to decide for themselves, do you go with Jackal or me? or do you try to get someone else on the block. I've said my peace, look at both of us and tell me who looks more like a wolf

[ntndeacon]

Originally Posted by Darth Vilus

If this is true then the person who you are talking to is flat out lying, I'm a vanilla villager. i don't have a real good read on you yet but you were one of the others that i was considering voting for. As to this person telling you to vote for me i have no clue. You're either lying and there isn't a person or there is and they're lying.

There is a third option Darth. (actually a 4th too since I don't know of your allegiance) The third option is this myterious person was trying to set up a line of communication between us. This person never said Darth was a wolf. Just that ineeded to end up on him at the end of the day to prove my good intentions.

Do I have theories about Said individual, sure I do. some of which give that person a lot of wherewithall, some paint that one in a not so favorable light. However I think I am willing to give them the benefit of the doubt so far.

[mauchow]

We could do a changeup and vote someone who has said nearly nothing so far this game

[Darth Vilus]

Originally Posted by ntndeacon

This person never said Darth was a wolf. Just that ineeded to end up on him at the end of the day to prove my good intentions.

I don't really get this. If I'm not a wolf (and I'm not) how would this prove your good intentions? I don't see it

[saldana]

so it looks like whoever the other side of the NTN situation is bought the messenger service, which i assumed was going to be a one time PM to another player

not really sure how blindly following an order in that message proves anything about NTN's allegiences though

its interesting to me that the person he was told to vote for was the lynch leader to begin with also.

those facts not withstanding, i am gonna make my vote based on the other things i mentioned earlier about him

vote darth

[mckerney]

Originally Posted by ntndeacon

Your point is well taken. However in my case, I don't have a hint...I have someone telling me that if I am good I must vote Darth. I won't reveal who that is just yet but thought I would throw it out there

This person trying to get you to prove you're on the good side could easily be a mobster who has bet on Darth, as a likely candidate after yesterday, trying to get another person to help make sure they can make some money. I can't trust that as a reason we should vote for him.

[JAG]

Originally Posted by The Jackal

Except at this point I'm much more beneficial to the village with my money. I understand you're trying to save yourself, but I can make efforts towards proving that I'm good while at the same time helping everyone. Don't think I should be punished for guessing properly on day one. If you had a different candidate in mind, I might listen, but going hard at me is bad for the village.

I'd like to hear what hoops has to say on this matter, since I remember him pinging me with the idea that Lathum or DV might be a wolf because of the movement towards J near the end. That was one of the reasons that was pushing me towards you today, aside from the value of voting history.

I have been leaning hoops as I think his vote on DV is more suspicious than the other uncleared. I could see a hoops as wolf trying to hide a vote on an emerging third candidate. Some of it is gut though, I don't feel like he's playing his usual game, maybe due to time? I don't know.

[mauchow]

Originally Posted by mckerney

This person trying to get you to prove you're on the good side could easily be a mobster who has bet on Darth, as a likely candidate after yesterday, trying to get another person to help make sure they can make some money. I can't trust that as a reason we should vote for him.

What he sabids

If we villagers continue to spend too much money on one service while the mob can pool we wont win very many bids.. that concerns me the most as I admittedly bid too high for services.. thankfully I still do have $ left. The residents will really need to get lucky on a mob vote at some point to balance the power.

[mauchow]

Sabids? Stupid phone... what he said.

[Chief Rum]

Is it just me or does the case against The Jackal seem trumped up? I mean, why did it have to be pointed out that the wolves can pool their money? I thought it was pretty obvious the wolves bought the kill last night.

Barring someone coming out with a "The Jackal is a wolf, I scanned him!" post, I'm not planning on voting him. As for DV, I didn't necessarily think he was a wolf and am not sure what the case is exactly, but it seems to me, his own charge against The Jackal makes him seem potentially wolfish to me. If I have to choose, I am going DV.

That said, I would definitely be interested in a third or fourth candidate.

[mckerney]

Originally Posted by mauboy1

What he sabids

If we villagers continue to spend too much money on one service while the mob can pool we wont win very many bids.. that concerns me the most as I admittedly bid too high for services.. thankfully I still do have $ left. The residents will really need to get lucky on a mob vote at some point to balance the power.

I'm fairly certain the message to get him to vote that way was for the betting, whether it was by a villager or a wolf I can't be sure. I do know that it would be much easier to orchestrate for a wolf working with ntn and one other wolf than just one villager on their own.

[ntndeacon]

Originally Posted by mckerney

This person trying to get you to prove you're on the good side could easily be a mobster who has bet on Darth, as a likely candidate after yesterday, trying to get another person to help make sure they can make some money. I can't trust that as a reason we should vote for him.

This is certainly one of the possibilities I have thought of. And I do plan on changing my vote. I will say I am not too high on voting for Jackal however. As I think he just got unlucky to get it right . I also tend to think that the mafia avoided voting for the person they bet on. I would think that a big topic of discussion on both sets of threes was what each opportunity achieved. and certainly getting the bookie would give you a couple of different possibility. (for the sake of this argument I am assuming we don't know what it does) one is getting a take of each bet..winning or losing , or finding out who bet for whom.

[Darth Vilus]

If we want to try to get another candiate in the mix i would suggest Packerfanatic or Cougarfreak, they've been pretty quiet

[mckerney]

I'm inclined to think someone who has a vote on Darth is a wolf right now, so

Vote Packerfanatic

[cougarfreak]

I still smell a rat in Lathum.......his whole throwing himself out there to be the obvious/yet not obvious choice in the end still makes me very suspicious of him. I'm sticking with it.

VOTE LATHUM

[cougarfreak]

Originally Posted by Darth Vilus

If we want to try to get another candiate in the mix i would suggest Packerfanatic or Cougarfreak, they've been pretty quiet

Sorry, I was in the process of reading/taking care of the kids after a long day at school. I'm still pretty inexperienced at this whole werewolf game thing, and I'm trying to wrap my head around it. I just posted by vote.

[Darth Vilus]

Originally Posted by Autumn

As far as you are aware, your bets and its results will remain private.

Keep this in mind

[Lathum]

The message NTN got confudes me. How would any player know another players alligence on D1?

That being said I think I have a very busy afternoon at work and may have very limited access.

Vote Jackal

[Darth Vilus]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

I got my PM from the service I won, and I don't see a point in keeping the info secret. I bid for and won the services of the betting parlor. I had a couple ways to go with it, and I chose to receive a list of everyone's bets for the lynch from yesterday (so what they submitted in the Night 0 phase).

I actually think this is the only phase that info might be useful, because we didn't know about the betting parlor at that point. The wolves may have been less inhibited in making their choices for betting during that phase than they would be now, since they now know their choices might bee revealed and used as a way to link one another.

Hopefully this formats okay. The Bettor is on the right, who he bet for the Day One lynch is on the left. Here goes:

Packer Fanatic:            Chief Rum
JAG:                Darth Vilus
DaddyTorgo:            Lathum
Saldana:            The Jackal
Danny:                Daddy Torgo
The Jackal:            J23
Zinto:                Lathum
Crimson Fox:            Lathum
Darth Vilus:            CrimsonFox
Chief Rum:            ntndeacon
Mauboy1:        ntndeacon
Passacaglia:            Lathum
Lathum:                ntndeacon
J23:                (No Bet)
Tyketime    :        Lathum
Mckerney    :        Lathum
Hoopsguy:            Passacaglia
cougarfreak:            (No Bet)
Ntndeacon:            (No Bet)

This also means I have no money, so I guess the wolves can kill me now if they want--they won't be depriving us of any funds.

After looking at this I don't think cougar is a good candidate today. The wolves didn't know that their bets would be made public. i say we look at the lathum betters

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by cougarfreak

I still smell a rat in Lathum.......his whole throwing himself out there to be the obvious/yet not obvious choice in the end still makes me very suspicious of him. I'm sticking with it.

VOTE LATHUM

I'm with you here. Plus, I'm still baffled about his reasoning on The Jackal. Plus, I bet on him (yeah, I'll admit it).

VOTE LATHUM

[Lathum]

Why on earth would I make a play like the one I made if I was a wolf?

[Lathum]

dola- what is so hard to get about my reasoning? He sent in a PM that said bid the max on Knuckles, why is that hard?

If the mob was gonna pool there money I think it would have been a different amount. Something higher in case the person who did win the betting bid on the killer, remember, the mob has no idea how much you win with a correct bet. I think if they pool money they go higher.

[hoopsguy]

Originally Posted by JAG

I have been leaning hoops as I think his vote on DV is more suspicious than the other uncleared. I could see a hoops as wolf trying to hide a vote on an emerging third candidate. Some of it is gut though, I don't feel like he's playing his usual game, maybe due to time? I don't know.

It has been time - home with a sick kid who has kept me running almost non-stop. I'm now trying to catch up with posts and make an intelligent vote tonight before the deadline.

I anticipate next week will be much better, assuming (of course) that I'm left around to participate in the festivities.

[ntndeacon]

Originally Posted by Lathum

The message NTN got confudes me. How would any player know another players alligence on D1?

That being said I think I have a very busy afternoon at work and may have very limited access.

Vote Jackal

It confused me a bit as well.

[ntndeacon]

Unvote Darth

[hoopsguy]

I'm not inclined to vote for Lathum for a couple of days at least, barring some kind of damning evidence. He is a very conniving player in terms of werewolf, but I have never seen him laying out a gambit from the minute a game starts. I think he was playing it straight at the outset.

Still sorting through my feelings on the other candidates, but I do not feel that the case on Jackal is "trumped up". In fact, it is some of the more reasoned posting I can recall seeing from Darth in the games I've played with him and this is coming from a person who voted Darth on Day 1.

[The Jackal]

As far as your PM NTN, I'm guessing that person bet on Darth and wanted your help getting him taken off. Whether they are a villager or a mobster is speculation.

[Darth Vilus]

Not to keep beating the point but what is the biggest problem the wolves usually face? The roles, Seer, Bodyguard, Duke, etc. In this particular game the roles are up for grabs so the wolves have a chance to stop the village from using thier most dangerous weapons.

But if they have the same amount of chance as we do in getting the roles how do they beat us at it? By bidding more, hence they need more money than us. And the only way to get money is by winning bets. So Jackal has already one some and there were quite a few people who bet on lahtum yesterday. if they lynched him they would have all that cheddar to use against us, they're the only ones who can coordinate their bets. I'm guessing one mafia tried to do that and the other tried to spread their bets out, two different styles.

Either way i think this is whee we have to focus our attention.

[The Jackal]

The hard push on me by DV is what might be coming off as trumped. But you can't blame someone who's on the block for pushing someone else who has a vote. I lucked out winning the bet D1, but that doesn't make me a wolf. It could have been a coordinated vote, certainly, but I think the negatives outweigh the positives lynching me this early when I can be of help to the village with the funds I gathered via guessing correctly.

I welcome any and all scans that the winner of Mario directs my way. I actually kind of doubt the wolves want me lynched at this point, being that they'd gain more if they can NK me. If I have any money left after throwing it all at ladies, that is!

[Darth Vilus]

*won*

[The Jackal]

I'm going to be out until the deadline or near it pretty soon, I really hope you don't flush my luck down the toilet. If I manage to win more than just Tank, I'll of course reveal whatever I find out.

[Autumn]

Vote count as of post #435

Mckerney (1) - mauboy1 290
Darth Vilus (4) - Packerfanatic 299, The Jackal 369, tyketime 389, saldana 409
jackal (3) - crimson fox 365, darth 390, lathum 422
Packerfanatic (1) - mckerney 418
Lathum (2) - cougarfreak 419, passacaglia 424

[ntndeacon]

Originally Posted by The Jackal

As far as your PM NTN, I'm guessing that person bet on Darth and wanted your help getting him taken off. Whether they are a villager or a mobster is speculation.

Sure that is probably it, but I do have a little niggling doubt that it could have been on the up and up. I probably throw him to the lynching squad we have if I did not at least see a possibility of them being good

[The Jackal]

It's looking like I'm going to be involved in the showdown, unfortunately. Don't know what much more to say for myself. I've tried to engage in discussion, I don't think I've done or said anything wolfy, just getting targeted because my D1 bet happened to be the one that went down. Terrible risk villagers are taking eliminating me when my money can be put to good use. Feel free to keep the heat on me for the next couple days, through scans or whatever means you'd like, but this would be a terrible waste. Even if I was a wolf, my money would be going towards finding out who the other mobsters were and getting rid of them, I'm pretty sure. But I'm definitely not a wolf. I didn't even try to hide the fact that I bet on J before I voted him. Would be a somewhat stupid transparent wolf move.

Let the wolves have to take me out, don't do their work for them!

[cougarfreak]

Originally Posted by Lathum

Why on earth would I make a play like the one I made if I was a wolf?

I said, to make yourself an obvious choice at the beginning. As far as I can tell, usually the first "run" on someone gets trumped by a later run. At least that seems to be my limited experience.

[ntndeacon]

Just to give us a better third candidate than Lathum ....
Vote Packerfanatic

[The Jackal]

CF's vote stinks to me right now, weren't you the one that just voted me with a smily face? DV I understand, of course. But DV might've pushed someone else if it wasn't for CF's vote. Which was in response to me saying a target was painted on my back by Chief - which was in reference to the wolves wanting to NK and take my money, not the villagers wanting to lynch me!

[The Jackal]

Not sure why Lathum voted for me over Darth at this point, but as he's on the block also his voting for one of the other leading candidates is explainable there.

[cougarfreak]

Originally Posted by The Jackal

CF's vote stinks to me right now, weren't you the one that just voted me with a smily face? DV I understand, of course. But DV might've pushed someone else if it wasn't for CF's vote. Which was in response to me saying a target was painted on my back by Chief - which was in reference to the wolves wanting to NK and take my money, not the villagers wanting to lynch me!

If CF is me......I never voted for you, you're mistaken.

[The Jackal]

Originally Posted by cougarfreak

If CF is me......I never voted for you, you're mistaken.

CrimsonFox, sorry, you're both CF! But I've played with him more and referred to him as CF often, I'll make sure to expand names.

[mckerney]

Originally Posted by Darth Vilus

Not to keep beating the point but what is the biggest problem the wolves usually face? The roles, Seer, Bodyguard, Duke, etc. In this particular game the roles are up for grabs so the wolves have a chance to stop the village from using thier most dangerous weapons.

But if they have the same amount of chance as we do in getting the roles how do they beat us at it? By bidding more, hence they need more money than us. And the only way to get money is by winning bets. So Jackal has already one some and there were quite a few people who bet on lahtum yesterday. if they lynched him they would have all that cheddar to use against us, they're the only ones who can coordinate their bets. I'm guessing one mafia tried to do that and the other tried to spread their bets out, two different styles.

Either way i think this is whee we have to focus our attention.

I think the wolf money is on you today, them being able to cash in on that is my biggest fear right now.

[The Jackal]

Originally Posted by mckerney

I think the wolf money is on you today, them being able to cash in on that is my biggest fear right now.

I'd say DV was a popular candidate, in addition to Lathum. Hard to say who they would have bet on, but I'd wager more than just wolves bet on both of those people, so the winnings would be spread. If that's a reasoning to lynch me, so that very few people would win, that's kind of a bad idea. Because then if a wolf happened to place a guess vote on me, they'd win a lot of money.

[Darth Vilus]

Originally Posted by mckerney

I think the wolf money is on you today, them being able to cash in on that is my biggest fear right now.

That makes alot of sense. Especially after how many votes i got yesterday

[The Jackal]

Would people like me to reveal how much money I received, for purposes of full disclosure? I'm willing, the wolves clearly already know I benefitted. But I'd rather keep it secret at least past tonight, so as not to tip my hand to how much they should outbid me by.

[The Jackal]

If people are honestly that worried about DV being the lead bet receiver from wolves, I'd be willing to switch around my vote, but I haven't gotten a particularly wolfy vibe from Lathum, even if he is voting for me.

[The Jackal]

I urge people to remember over the course of this game that aside from all the betting and the bidding, this still a game of werewolf, and vote history is important. Not voting for people because of game mechanics is way too easy of a way to hide votes and explain them later on.