Werewolf XXXIII: To Crown a King 2 (Game Over)

[Mr. Wednesday]

From the department of "hmmm"...

Each night the Assassins have a 1 in 10 chance (1/10) of discovering a Noble Leader’s message. Once they discover a Noble Leader’s message they will receive all of that Leader’s messages. If the faction gains a new noble leader, the Assassins will no longer receive the Noble Leader’s messages. The assassins may only be receiving two factions messages at one time.

I don't think that has anything to do with our present situation (it implies, to me, that the assassins are eavesdropping rather than outright intercepting), but it does introduce an interesting complication that I had not previously considered, should they be fortunate enough to get a hit.

[st.cronin]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Cronin, maybe I'm missing the role in the game that allows the assassins to prevent the transmission of a message.

I see that they can gain access to the messages, but not stop their delivery.

I don't exactly see it in the rules, either. But, assuming it is possible, there are 4 possibilities.

1. faction leader dropped out of game
2. faction leader chose not to send a message
3. faction leader was turned
4. message was sent and intercepted

I guess I'm starting to see 3 as most likely. I'll wait for some more people to chime in before I proceed.

[st.cronin]

dola - how does the voting work today? Do we vote to jail somebody, AND vote on executing bullet, or do we only cast one vote, either jail/execute/no execute?

[ntndeacon]

Originally Posted by st.cronin

I don't know if I agree with that - and not just because we're talking about my faction leader. If he had been turned, wouldn't he have still sent a message? I think it's more likely that the message was sent in good faith, but intercepted.

Perhaps, but it seems that nobles in a faction whose message was intercepted would be unaware of that fact.

[hoopsguy]

Cronin, I'll turn towards #3 on that list when I see that the message ability is stripped if a leader is turned.

If a Leader can also be the Fast Talker, and retains the ability to send messages as the Leader/Assassin, then it would be very much in their best interests to continue sending messages to avoid detection.

[ntndeacon]

Cronin, I tend to think that #1 or #2 are the most likely. I think if an assassin becomes/became a Faction Leader, that that assassin would be able to send messages to that faction.

[Blade6119]

Originally Posted by ntndeacon

Cronin, I tend to think that #1 or #2 are the most likely. I think if an assassin becomes/became a Faction Leader, that that assassin would be able to send messages to that faction.

The fact fast talking nobles can become faction leaders and even become crowned means they must be able to send messages. If not, it would disrupt that entire element of the game.

[BrianD]

At this point, I am going to be looking at the super-quiet folks for my jail vote. If we can't learn from their words, we can learn from the points we get for killing them.

[hoopsguy]

Blade/NTN - I'm on the same page with you guys. So if a faction leader was turned, then why in the world would he fail to send a message?

That is why I posed the question to Barkeep. I want to make sure that I'm understanding the game mechanics (I think I do, I do not KNOW that I do) before making assumptions on this point.

[BrianD]

Originally Posted by st.cronin

dola - how does the voting work today? Do we vote to jail somebody, AND vote on executing bullet, or do we only cast one vote, either jail/execute/no execute?

I believe today we vote on Bullet (execute/free/leave-in-jail), and we vote to jail someone else. If a situation comes up where we have multiple people in jail, we have only one execute/free vote. Feel free to correct me if I've got this wrong.

[st.cronin]

I am going to wait to see who gets replaced before I cast a jail vote. I do think I can do this though:

EXECUTE BULLETSPONGE

More to see who comes to his defense and how than anything else.

[Blade6119]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Blade/NTN - I'm on the same page with you guys. So if a faction leader was turned, then why in the world would he fail to send a message?

That is why I posed the question to Barkeep. I want to make sure that I'm understanding the game mechanics (I think I do, I do not KNOW that I do) before making assumptions on this point.

I figured it had more to do with a faction leader simply not being around to send one or forgetting to do so.

Though, to be fair, only st. cronin claims to have not gotten one so far. And while im not asking his faction to reveal, he was my top suspect coming into today. I dont put as much weight into it as you might, so i might not be the best person to ask.

[Mr. Wednesday]

Blade, you should have played enough to know that "early" claims like that, especially when not under duress, tend to be truthful.

[BrianD]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Blade/NTN - I'm on the same page with you guys. So if a faction leader was turned, then why in the world would he fail to send a message?

That is why I posed the question to Barkeep. I want to make sure that I'm understanding the game mechanics (I think I do, I do not KNOW that I do) before making assumptions on this point.

Is it possible that the faction leader believes that all of the necessary info has already been given and he/she didn't have anything interesting to say on this particular day?

[Mr. Wednesday]

Dola, it's especially dangerous for an assassin to make any claim on messages from their leader, unless they've intercepted a leader's communications...

[Mr. Wednesday]

Originally Posted by BrianD

Is it possible that the faction leader believes that all of the necessary info has already been given and he/she didn't have anything interesting to say on this particular day?

That's why I suggested waiting until tomorrow to act on it. Personally, given st.cronin's well-avowed concern with the ambiguity of identifying his compatriots, I think it's doubtful, but it's within the realm of possibility.

[Blade6119]

Originally Posted by Mr. Wednesday

Blade, you should have played enough to know that "early" claims like that, especially when not under duress, tend to be truthful.

Its very possible. I didnt say it wasnt true, i just said i take things said by my top suspect with a little less weight then other players.

[st.cronin]

Originally Posted by Blade6119

Its very possible. I didnt say it wasnt true, i just said i take things said by my top suspect with a little less weight then other players.

I was your top suspect ...? That's ... strange.

[hoopsguy]

Hey, I'm just glad to have a game where I'm not Blade's top suspect for about five days running

[hoopsguy]

Upon further review of my notes from yesterday, Bullet is the only person who I had absolutely no theories on their posts to align them with a faction. I'm sure a number of yesterday's theories are incorrect, but I couldn't come up with any way to tie him with anyone.

VOTE EXECUTE BULLETSPONGE

[st.cronin]

I have been trying to think of a way to check if anybody else didn't get a message, and I think I have it: If anybody didn't get a message, take the first letter of each word of the first message, and make a message with it. So, for example, if the first message was "The Wisconsin Badgers will beat the Indiana Hoosiers this week", please type something like

This will be weird because tonight I'm hoping to win some money playing poker.

Obviously without the bolds. Also, only one person do this - if you see that somebody already did this, it won't be neccesary. This is for my information only.

[BrianD]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Upon further review of my notes from yesterday, Bullet is the only person who I had absolutely no theories on their posts to align them with a faction. I'm sure a number of yesterday's theories are incorrect, but I couldn't come up with any way to tie him with anyone.

VOTE EXECUTE BULLETSPONGE

Out of curiosity, how many people did you tie to factions? I don't need to know who is with who or anything like that, I'm just curious how many individuals you identified.

[Lorena]

I'm catching up, cya'll in a little bit.

[hoopsguy]

19 players, excluding me 18.
I knew my faction leader, so 17 remain.
2 people didn't post, leaving me 15 people to evaluate.

I have notes, outside of the first post #, for all but Bulletsponge. Doesn't mean that the notes contain good info, but 14 people have notes for me to reference today to try and build upon (or refute) my Day 1 impressions.

[Barkeep49]

Not all caught up, but Bek has dropped out of the game and been replaced by Sndvls. SnDvls has recieved any appropriate messages.

[SnDvls]

give me some time to get caught up reading 9 pages is a lot to digest.

[st.cronin]

Bek was NOT my faction leader.

[Barkeep49]

Ok two questions I can answer.

1. Noble Leaders can have another role. However, no noble leader who begins the game as a noble leader is a Fast Talking Noble. Of course as Noble Leaders die, and fast talking nobles become converted, it's possible for a Fast Talker to become Noble Leader. A Noble Leader may other roles that state "may also have an additional role".

2. You need ot make two votes today. And there are two seperate vote counts. So far the vote counts look like:

Execution/No Execution/Free
Execute Bulletsponge 2 -- SnDvls, hoopsguy

Jail
Bek 1 -- RealDeal

[hoopsguy]

Looking forward to catching up later this afternoon, SnDvls. I think this is going to be a fun game and I'm glad to have you aboard.

[st.cronin]

Originally Posted by Barkeep49

Ok two questions I can answer.

1. Noble Leaders can have another role. However, no noble leader who begins the game as a noble leader is a Fast Talking Noble. Of course as Noble Leaders die, and fast talking nobles become converted, it's possible for a Fast Talker to become Noble Leader. A Noble Leader may other roles that state "may also have an additional role".

2. You need ot make two votes today. And there are two seperate vote counts. So far the vote counts look like:

Execution/No Execution/Free
Execute Bulletsponge 2 -- SnDvls, hoopsguy

Jail
Bek 1 -- RealDeal

I think that should be me and hoops, not SnDvls and hoops, voting to execute the bulletsponge.

[BrianD]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

19 players, excluding me 18.
I knew my faction leader, so 17 remain.
2 people didn't post, leaving me 15 people to evaluate.

I have notes, outside of the first post #, for all but Bulletsponge. Doesn't mean that the notes contain good info, but 14 people have notes for me to reference today to try and build upon (or refute) my Day 1 impressions.

So how many people do you have on a faction (not assassin)? I see you voted for Bullet because you didn't get a good read. Does that mean everyone else has been assigned to a faction? It just seems odd to me that you select someone you didn't get a read on rather than trying to get a better read on him.

[Mr. Wednesday]

Hmm. So that would tend to indicate an oversight on the part of the leader in question. That changes things considerably, thanks.

st.cronin, I think that's a good concept but I'm not convinced it can be pulled off without being really obvious.

[Blade6119]

Is king being replaced as well?

[Mr. Wednesday]

Wow, new digs.

[st.cronin]

Originally Posted by Mr. Wednesday

Hmm. So that would tend to indicate an oversight on the part of the leader in question. That changes things considerably, thanks.

st.cronin, I think that's a good concept but I'm not convinced it can be pulled off without being really obvious.

We'll see. What I'm trying to figure out is if I was in the only one in my faction who did NOT get a message, which indicates some sort of shenanigans - intercept by assasins, or another faction, or something else. If there is anybody else who did not get a message, then I will just chalk it up to an odd choice from faction leader.

[BrianD]

Ugh, this is seriously inconvenient. Now it takes way too many clicks to bounce from the general forum to here, and I can't peruse the general forum and see when a new post was made here. Boo to the new home.

[hoopsguy]

OK, so we can dismiss the co-opted Noble Leader at this stage of the game, since Barkeep said no original leaders are Fast Talkers in Post #428.

So that leaves the scenario that a faction leader, for whatever reason, did not send a message. I don't believe it was intercepted because that is not in the rules.

[st.cronin]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

OK, so we can dismiss the co-opted Noble Leader at this stage of the game, since Barkeep said no original leaders are Fast Talkers in Post #428.

So that leaves the scenario that a faction leader, for whatever reason, did not send a message. I don't believe it was intercepted because that is not in the rules.

Leaning to buying this theory as well, although really puzzled by it.

[hoopsguy]

Brian, my thought was that on Day 1 it would be the hardest day for the assassins to get acclimated. But they would learn lessons from it and do a better job on Day 2.

I'm certainly not convinced that all of my notes are accurate, otherwise we would be starting with a single assassin. But linkage is good because I can follow those (perceived?) relationships later in the game. Today I get to validate/refute some of my suspected relationships from yesterday. And, hopefully, with each passing day those associations become stronger until I figure out the factions. From there, it will be a matter of aligning the points to the factions. When that happens, we consistently nail assassins.

I'm sure Barkeep does not want the game to be a math exercise like this, so the rules have been polished to make this more challenging. But until proven otherwise, that is the approach I'm planning to take.


One other tangent that goes back to the original question - if Bullet is aligned with a faction that does not include assassins then they will have an opportunity to speak up today and save him. Assuming, of course, that they were able to identify him yesterday based on his posts.

[BrianD]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

One other tangent that goes back to the original question - if Bullet is aligned with a faction that does not include assassins then they will have an opportunity to speak up today and save him. Assuming, of course, that they were able to identify him yesterday based on his posts.

But then you run into the question of whether it is better for people to out their faction or not.

[st.cronin]

I am going to cast my second vote now:

JAIL BLADE

Nothing solid, but if Bek needed replacing, he probably was NOT an assasin. Assasins wouldn't need to check in every night. I'm going to guess he has a different role.

[st.cronin]

dola

As for Blade, he didn't really get involved in the game til after hoops fingered him. Somewhat uncharacteristic. And I don't know that hoops initial suspicions were ever cleared up, were they?

[Lorena]

Is this maggot yours? No.

I think it was an oversight, we might be reading too much into this. But then again, anything is possible.

[Blade6119]

Originally Posted by st.cronin

dola

As for Blade, he didn't really get involved in the game til after hoops fingered him. Somewhat uncharacteristic. And I don't know that hoops initial suspicions were ever cleared up, were they?

Two things, i find this hilarious this comes out after i say your my top suspect. Secondly, hoops stated the reason he was after me was he felt i was trying to crack a code. Later in the day he stated i was apart of what he felt was an emerging group of nobles. Just hilarious

VOTE JAIL ST. CRONIN

[hoopsguy]

Originally Posted by BrianD

But then you run into the question of whether it is better for people to out their faction or not.

Brian, my thoughts on this are that it would be better for two people to be linked to a common faction than to see one of their members die because we are about to jail/execute the wrong person. Obviously others may have a different view on this issue and will act accordingly. But if push comes to shove for me, I am quite sure I would speak up on behalf of "Player X" if they were going to be endangered.

Releasing that kind of information is not 100% bad. It puts the assassins in an interesting spot because they don't want any kind of villager linkage to be out there publicly. This leads to "trust lists", which remain the biggest threat to them. Everyone has their own faction trust list, but now many people would have an expanding trust list beyond their own faction. That would absolutely have to factor into night decisions for the assassins.

Anyways, I'm not telling someone to reveal a role/faction here. Just laying out my thoughts on the matter in broad terms. Personally, it would be very convenient for me to have someone align themselves with Bullet to save me the negative points if he is indeed a noble. But everyone is going to make what they feel is the right decision with the information they have. Just like in every other WW game.

[st.cronin]

Originally Posted by Blade6119

Two things, i find this hilarious this comes out after i say your my top suspect. Secondly, hoops stated the reason he was after me was he felt i was trying to crack a code. Later in the day he stated i was apart of what he felt was an emerging group of nobles. Just hilarious

VOTE JAIL ST. CRONIN

Ok, well explain why I was your top suspect please.

[st.cronin]

dola

note that hoops said BOTH of us were part of an "emerging group of nobles" whatever that means

[Lorena]

OT: I noticed I lost a shitload of posts. Looks like Skydog created a new category just for us! lol

[Blade6119]

Originally Posted by st.cronin

Ok, well explain why I was your top suspect please.

You made a few remarks yesterday that caught my eye. One in particular about your trust list. I had been giving you the benefit of the doubt yesterday as hoops voted bullet for voting you, saying "you voted someone i trust." I had assumed this meant you 2 were in the same faction. Today, it has become quite clear that is not the case. I know you are not apart of my faction. Couple those 2 items with the knowledge i feel i gained from one of your posts in particular last night you are my top suspect.

It appears dodgerchick is associating with you now, but you remain my #1. Is that explanation sufficient?

[Lorena]

Originally Posted by Blade6119

You made a few remarks yesterday that caught my eye. One in particular about your trust list. I had been giving you the benefit of the doubt yesterday as hoops voted bullet for voting you, saying "you voted someone i trust." I had assumed this meant you 2 were in the same faction. Today, it has become quite clear that is not the case. I know you are not apart of my faction. Couple those 2 items with the knowledge i feel i gained from one of your posts in particular last night you are my top suspect.

It appears dodgerchick is associating with you now, but you remain my #1. Is that explanation sufficient?

Would you mind sharing those remarks?