Werewolf CXXVII -- The Godfather, VILLAGERS WIN

[Autumn]

Originally Posted by JAG

We don't know if items get passed before lynching, so it's possible if CF is lynched that the gun would move randomly. I would certainly think a wolf would keep quiet about having received that.

I'm not sure why a wolf would keep quiet about it, if they were on the block. anything that would move votes helps, and then they can say "I don't want to say where I passed it."

I agree, however, that a lynch probably means a random passing of the item. I'm not sure that matters enough that we should change our votes because of it though.

[tyketime]

So looks like heat on Crimson is cooling off. Unfortunately, there's not been a lot of other movement. My unofficial tally has it:

Jeff061 3 – Zinto(242), The Jackal(316), mckerney(322)
Crimson Fox 2 – Autumn (336), Lathum (347)
Tyketime 4 – Darth Vilus (295), Danny(315), Jeff061 (338), Saldana (384)
Saldana 3 – Eaglefan (294), Narcizo (298), bhlloy (400)

Left: J23, Crimson Fox, Saldana, MartinD, tyketime

I'm still the leading vote-getter. I would love to have one of the four who voted for me give me a reason. But soon enough, I may have to make a defensive vote instead of us having another viable candidate to push to the forefront.

[JAG]

Originally Posted by bhlloy

Unvote CF

Vote Saldana

I agree that CF gets the benefit of the doubt today. Unfortunately for sal I think lynching him provides the most info about day 1. If he is wolf then it looks very bad for mckerney or tyketime. If he is clean then I'm pretty convinced there is no pattern in day one voting and we can move on from that

If Saldana and Tyke are bad, why would sal have voted Tyke there?

[CrimsonFox]

I think I agree that it will move randomly if the holder if killed. Considering it moves randomly without instructions anyway.

Thinking through this though.

If I don't tell you who I pass it to, we learn nothing, right?
If I tell you guys who I am passing it to,

If it's a villager, they can confirm receiving it the next day.
If it's a wolf, in two-three days if someone dies then we could know that the person I gave it to is probably a wolf. (Would a villager be lucky enough to actually receive both at this point? I think the odds are 1 in 256 that a villager would get both tomorrow. (1 in 16 times 1 in 16) And if a villager got both would they use it?)


If I don't tell you and the person is a wolf, you won't know which person is suspect for gun use if an extra villager dies.
If I don't tell you and the person is a villager, they can say "Yes, I have the gun." And then I can confirm if that person is actually the person I gave it to. Although I highly doubt anyone will make a "fake gun reveal post".

[mckerney]

Originally Posted by CrimsonFox

I think I agree that it will move randomly if the holder if killed. Considering it moves randomly without instructions anyway.

Thinking through this though.

If I don't tell you who I pass it to, we learn nothing, right?
If I tell you guys who I am passing it to,

If it's a villager, they can confirm receiving it the next day.
If it's a wolf, in two-three days if someone dies then we could know that the person I gave it to is probably a wolf. (Would a villager be lucky enough to actually receive both at this point? I think the odds are 1 in 256 that a villager would get both tomorrow. (1 in 16 times 1 in 16) And if a villager got both would they use it?)


If I don't tell you and the person is a wolf, you won't know which person is suspect for gun use if an extra villager dies.
If I don't tell you and the person is a villager, they can say "Yes, I have the gun." And then I can confirm if that person is actually the person I gave it to. Although I highly doubt anyone will make a "fake gun reveal post".

Here's the problem, if you tell us who you pass it to and he's night killed then the gun could end up in the hands of the wolves through either random chance or if they claim items on their victims.

[J23]

Originally Posted by bhlloy

Unfortunately for sal I think lynching him provides the most info about day 1. If he is wolf then it looks very bad for mckerney or tyketime. If he is clean then I'm pretty convinced there is no pattern in day one voting and we can move on from that

I'm not sure I follow your logic here. When Saldana put his vote, Mau was already leading over the others. I didn't really see it as that critical of a vote that some people seem to have interpreted it as.

I'm having a difficult time trying to put my vote out there today (as you'll notice by the lack of a vote despite being around a decent bit). I feel like I should be making a more informed vote than yesterday, but it still seems like just as much of a crapshoot.

[CrimsonFox]

There is an hour and a half left and plenty of people on.If you don't like tyke or saldana, we could organize something. I don't know about tyke. I still don't like his initial reasoning but his engagement makes me more at ease. saldana I think is quiet still so maybe more suspicious. Does either have anything to do with day one voting? Whose day one vote or switch looks most suspicious?

[JAG]

Originally Posted by Autumn

I'm not sure why a wolf would keep quiet about it, if they were on the block. anything that would move votes helps, and then they can say "I don't want to say where I passed it."

I agree, however, that a lynch probably means a random passing of the item. I'm not sure that matters enough that we should change our votes because of it though.

I think a wolf on the block would have taken a different tact personally, but yes, you could be right.

[mckerney]

If you tell us you're passing the gun to someone who is a villager you're almost guaranteeing a night kill attempt on that person. We might be able to get the body guard on them, which would clear that person but probably isn't worth the risk. And the wolves don't need to get both tonight, if they get the gun they can keep passing it among themselves while they for someone to pass the canoli to them, get it randomly or claim it on a kill.

So in summary DO NOT TELL US WHO YOU'RE PASSING IT TO.

[Autumn]

Or, CF, if you tell us who you're passing it to the wolves kill that person and get the gun, possibly. Alternately they kill you and get the gun.

If you pass it someone, and that someone is a wolf, they say, "Yes, I got it," and then they pass it to someone else and we lose track of it. That doesn't prove anything about it.

[CrimsonFox]

Originally Posted by mckerney

Here's the problem, if you tell us who you pass it to and he's night killed then the gun could end up in the hands of the wolves through either random chance or if they claim items on their victims.

It's random anyway though. If I pass it to someone, it's basically random who I choose as we really don't have anything to go on but hunches. If I don't choose, it's also random. The only thing, I don't know about the nightkill thing getting items. There's nothing to support that.

[JAG]

Originally Posted by mckerney

Here's the problem, if you tell us who you pass it to and he's night killed then the gun could end up in the hands of the wolves through either random chance or if they claim items on their victims.

Also we couldn't overlook it was a wolf ploy to gain trust if a villager ended up with it, so I don't think there's a benefit to reveal that.

[bhlloy]

Originally Posted by JAG

If Saldana and Tyke are bad, why would sal have voted Tyke there?

Did I miss something? I don't ever recall Sal voting for Tyke?

[JAG]

Remember who you passed it to though. Assuming you're still alive later, it could be very useful info later in the game.

[Autumn]

Originally Posted by CrimsonFox

It's random anyway though. If I pass it to someone, it's basically random who I choose as we really don't have anything to go on but hunches. If I don't choose, it's also random. The only thing, I don't know about the nightkill thing getting items. There's nothing to support that.

CF, I assume, but can you confirm, that you don't learn who passes you an item?

[JAG]

Originally Posted by bhlloy

Did I miss something? I don't ever recall Sal voting for Tyke?

He did today. Sorry, I was being brief for once.

[bhlloy]

Originally Posted by J23

I'm not sure I follow your logic here. When Saldana put his vote, Mau was already leading over the others. I didn't really see it as that critical of a vote that some people seem to have interpreted it as.

He was leading 5-4-3 with 10 minutes left to the deadline.

It's not exactly a nail in a coffin, but it's the most significant piece of information I can see from day 1. Plus the reasoning was a little sketchy. Other than just picking a quiet person or somebody who missed day 1 altogether, I don't see much else out there TBH.

[mckerney]

Originally Posted by CrimsonFox

It's random anyway though. If I pass it to someone, it's basically random who I choose as we really don't have anything to go on but hunches. If I don't choose, it's also random. The only thing, I don't know about the nightkill thing getting items. There's nothing to support that.

We don't know if it's random if the holder of the item is killed, it could be that the killer gets to claim the items.

[CrimsonFox]

Originally Posted by Autumn

CF, I assume, but can you confirm, that you don't learn who passes you an item?

All it said was that I received the gun.

[J23]

Originally Posted by bhlloy

Did I miss something? I don't ever recall Sal voting for Tyke?

Sal voted for Mau when he was already one ahead of Tyke in the vote count if I remember correctly.

[J23]

er.. nevermind I guess, already been answered and cleared up.

[CrimsonFox]

Originally Posted by mckerney

We don't know if it's random if the holder of the item is killed, it could be that the killer gets to claim the items.

To reiterate my paragraph, yes I've acklowledge this:

It's random anyway though. If I pass it to someone, it's basically random who I choose as we really don't have anything to go on but hunches. If I don't choose, it's also random. The only thing, I don't know about the nightkill thing getting items. There's nothing to support that.

But true. I'm just trying to work this out aloud and see if there is either something we can learn from it and maybe prevent the wolves from using it.

[bhlloy]

Originally Posted by JAG

He did today. Sorry, I was being brief for once.

I have no idea how I missed that. Still going to stick with the vote for a while. Let's see how it goes.

The other thing with Sal is the fact that EF is blindly voting for him early two days in a row. I have no idea how or why that might be relevant, but it does strike me as strange. Possibility that there are PM's being exchanged there but neither wants to go public with their role?

[CrimsonFox]

Was there any reason for people voting tyketime on day 1? If so what was it?

Which of jeff/saldana seemed more guilty or are there better candidates?

[J23]

I'm a bit surprised that the guys I'm used to doing a lot of good analysis haven't contributed much (Danny, EF, Lathum). I don't know if this is due to the deadline or other stuff going on, but it strikes me a bit odd.

[jeff061]

I know the deadline is making it pretty difficult for me.

[J23]

vote Jeff061

Putting this out there for now. I'll try to be around as discussion continues in case I need to move it.

[Autumn]

Originally Posted by CrimsonFox

Was there any reason for people voting tyketime on day 1? If so what was it?

Which of jeff/saldana seemed more guilty or are there better candidates?

I know my vote for Tyketime was just random Day 1 stuff. Basically he'd had good runs so I didn't feel bad if he got lynched.

[J23]

Of course as soon as I finally put down a vote, the guy I vote for posts while I was typing.

[Autumn]

Seems likely I'll have to move my vote in the next hour to avoid any shenanigans, but I'll sit put right now. I don't have a strong feeling about any of the others, and I'm not really sure we should have peeled off of CF the way we did.

[JAG]

Originally Posted by bhlloy

I have no idea how I missed that. Still going to stick with the vote for a while. Let's see how it goes.

The other thing with Sal is the fact that EF is blindly voting for him early two days in a row. I have no idea how or why that might be relevant, but it does strike me as strange. Possibility that there are PM's being exchanged there but neither wants to go public with their role?

I can't see why if they're pm'ing each other that EF would be going after him. EF's vote day one was the first vote cast, so I don't know that you can really read into that.

[jeff061]

Originally Posted by Autumn

I know my vote for Tyketime was just random Day 1 stuff. Basically he'd had good runs so I didn't feel bad if he got lynched.

Yeah, I'm not entirely sure why people keep looking for day 1 reasons.

I don't think there are any solid reasons to vote for anyone right now. At this stage the best strategy is to vote for the quieter ones(reason is irrelevant). They are under they radar AND they aren't contributing. But I'm not in a position to spark that right now .

Unfortunately I'm guessing it's survival time for me . What's that count?

[tyketime]

Originally Posted by Autumn

I know my vote for Tyketime was just random Day 1 stuff. Basically he'd had good runs so I didn't feel bad if he got lynched.

Boo! Everyone knows that past performance doesn't guarantee future results

[CrimsonFox]

Looking at some of today's later votes:

Danny gave no reason to vote for tyke today.
bhlloy and Jackal both gave the same reason for their #3 votes on me and jeff, respectively: that they wanted to make a third candidate. That reason gets overused and is too convenient IMHO.

[Autumn]

The problem there, Jeff, is that it seems this game the quieter folks are traditionally really good villagers. So I think people, myself included, are loathe to vote a strong villager out early for that.

[tyketime]

I think we are here:

Jeff061 4 – Zinto(242), The Jackal(316), mckerney(322), J23 (427)
Crimson Fox 2 – Autumn (336), Lathum (347)
Tyketime 4 – Darth Vilus (295), Danny(315), Jeff061 (338), Saldana (384)
Saldana 3 – Eaglefan (294), Narcizo (298), bhlloy (400)

Left: Crimson Fox, Saldana, MartinD, tyketime

[tyketime]

Originally Posted by Autumn

The problem there, Jeff, is that it seems this game the quieter folks are traditionally really good villagers. So I think people, myself included, are loathe to vote a strong villager out early for that.

I have not played the rookie card much at all, but I do need to ask you about this. Given that what you say is true, then how do the newer people ever break into that clique? Wouldn't you always end up with the same folks mid-game?

[jeff061]

Originally Posted by Autumn

The problem there, Jeff, is that it seems this game the quieter folks are traditionally really good villagers. So I think people, myself included, are loathe to vote a strong villager out early for that.

I've only played one game recently. But it was very strongly the opposite. 2 of the wolves were quiet and borderline absent for the game while innocent villagers slugged it out. Before the game I strongly felt non-contributors should go when there is a lack of information and that was only solidified with me afterwards.

[Passacaglia]

That's what I have, too.

jeff061 -- 4 Zinto (242) The Jackal (316) mckerney (322) J23 (427)
CrimsonFox -- 2 Autumn (336) Lathum (347)
tyketime -- 4 Darth Vilus (295) Danny (315) jeff061 (338) saldana (384)
saldana -- 3 EagleFan (294) Narcizo (300) bhlloy (400)

[CrimsonFox]

Originally Posted by CrimsonFox

Looking at some of today's later votes:

Danny gave no reason to vote for tyke today.
bhlloy and Jackal both gave the same reason for their #3 votes on me and jeff, respectively: that they wanted to make a third candidate. That reason gets overused and is too convenient IMHO.

Sorry that wasn't #3 votes, it was #2 votes.

[tyketime]

On day 1, we had the issue/concern about non-voters. On Day 2, my concern is folks who have registered a vote with little to no reasoning behind it. And have not made much of an appearance. How long do we continue to give folks "the benefit of the doubt"?

[Autumn]

Let me clarify, I mean that the players that are being quiet in this particular game, the Godfather game, are not our typically quiet players. Instead, ti's folks like Danny who usually are very vocal and very helpful villagers.

So while normally I'd be right on board voting out quiet players, I'm less likely to vote out someone who's quiet right now, but typically is an active participant.

[jeff061]

Originally Posted by tyketime

On day 1, we had the issue/concern about non-voters. On Day 2, my concern is folks who have registered a vote with little to no reasoning behind it. And have not made much of an appearance. How long do we continue to give folks "the benefit of the doubt"?

Tyke you have to think this through. Right now what exactly is a good reason? Who has one? I'm in defense mode. My name was put out there when Zinto said that the lead vote getter likely has a wolf on him.

And no offense, but you and Crimson are all over the god damned place with your thinking. You are kind of creating pointless deadend lines of thought(which is my reason for crying wolf on you) and Crimson is just spazzing out .

[Lathum]

well, looks like my vote will be meaningless so I'll change. I realy want to look closer at the quiet D1 players and would be open to moving to one of them if others feel like that is a good play.

A few people have made mention of me being quiet. The deadline is rough for me. I work 8-5 PST, then go home and play with my son, get him to bed, etc... and can'tr get on until between 10-11 EST. My life is just to hectic to be the vocal player I once was.

I don't want a meaningless vote so

Unvote CF
Vote Saldana


I think his alligence will tell us a alot about tyke and McKerny. It would be really easy for a wolf to cast a late vote that pushes someone further ahead and claim it was to protect against a tie when really it was to protect another wolf.

[CrimsonFox]

Originally Posted by Autumn

Let me clarify, I mean that the players that are being quiet in this particular game, the Godfather game, are not our typically quiet players. Instead, ti's folks like Danny who usually are very vocal and very helpful villagers.

So while normally I'd be right on board voting out quiet players, I'm less likely to vote out someone who's quiet right now, but typically is an active participant.

I think what tyke's saying is...."isn't that suspicious? That they ARE quiet NOW?"

[J23]

Originally Posted by tyketime

On day 1, we had the issue/concern about non-voters. On Day 2, my concern is folks who have registered a vote with little to no reasoning behind it. And have not made much of an appearance. How long do we continue to give folks "the benefit of the doubt"?

The only people I know that fit into both these camps are Danny and DV.

[tyketime]

Originally Posted by jeff061

Man, my connection is crappy here and I'm having trouble keeping up with the votes . Didn't realize I had 3 on me, so let me speed things up.

I'd like to vote for someone we haven't heard to much from, but I don't think that works now.

Tyketime is just all over the place. I'm not convinced on his guilt(not convinced on anyone's at this point), but he's certainly not helping. We are all debating irrelevant points and confusing things based on his posts so far.

Vote Tyketime

With less than an hour to go, I'd like to ask whether you still stand by this vote? I'm going to soon have to place a defensive vote, and I'm trying to get a feel for whether you had a real reason or not.

[Autumn]

I hope we get the rest of the votes. I don't want to stay stuck on CF, but my next likely vote would be on Saldana - which at the moment would create a three way tie. That's scary.

[jeff061]

Not going by post counts, just my own perception, guys please feel free to disagree. I was not able to catch up with most postings that happened late last night or early this morning.

Who I see as being quieter that I don't have any feel for reputation wise:
Zinto(hit and run on me)
J23(one of the wolves from my previous example)
MartinD
Narcizo
Darth Vilus


Quick scan that's what I get. I of course have no hard proof on any of them. Don't take it like that.


And for what it's worth I'm not sure I understand the logic behind giving a potential wolf a free pass because they made good villagers in the past...that sounds pretty dangerous.

[mckerney]

Originally Posted by Autumn

I hope we get the rest of the votes. I don't want to stay stuck on CF, but my next likely vote would be on Saldana - which at the moment would create a three way tie. That's scary.

I'm not unwilling to change from jeff. Care to give your reasoning on Saldana?