WW United -- GAME OVER

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by claphamsa

how does no lynch and going for the win correlate? we go for the win AND lynch!

because we have a chance of also hitting a rolled player.

We are in as good a shape after Day 1 as could be.

I have no problem with lynching, just trying to get some discussion going before I head to the airport to pick my parents up.

[claphamsa]

Originally Posted by Lathum

because we have a chance of also hitting a rolled player.

We are in as good a shape after Day 1 as could be.

I have no problem with lynching, just trying to get some discussion going before I head to the airport to pick my parents up.

fair enough

[JAG]

Pass, if we don't have enough players for a full bench, do we receive (average of bench players) / 3 or (average of bench players) / (# of bench players) points for a match?

[JAG]

We scored 633 points yesterday, 167 points short of a win and an average of 45 points per player. Of the player skills we've seen, we've seen averages of 51 (Danny), 50 (MartinD), 62 (LSG), PB (48), CR (46), Telle (45), and GE (43), an average of 49 points, which might mean we actually have bad luck with the lineup we chose and still we're overly far from a win. We need to get 800 points to win, an average of 57 points per player.

How much can we be expected to score today?

Let's assume the wolves go with optimal 'don't let them win the match' strategy and kill Darth, which loses us 94 points. For today's match, assuming KWhit keeps the next 4 highest scoring people in place, we'll start with:

81 (Alan) + 65 (lerriuqs) + 54 (Schmidty) + 52 (DT) = 252 guaranteed points

Now assuming he plays everyone that was on the bench, let's take their average to figure out how many points we'd get from them. There's obviously some possible variation here depending on how lucky KWhit gets, but: 62+48+46+45+43 = 244 expected points. That equals = 252+244 = 496 points from 9 of 11 starting positions.

Players have seemed to be right around the 50 point mark for an average, so the 3 highest on our bench will probably be around 50 points. 3 x 50 = 150 points. 496+150 = 646 points for 9 of 11 starters and the 3 bench players. Assuming the other 2 starters average 50 points (typical player average), that's another 100 points, which takes us to 646+100 = 746 points

So our average score for this upcoming game should be 746 points, 54 points short of a win. However there are other considerations that might keep wolves from going with optimal strategy (i.e. Darth might be a wolf, they might choose not to go after Alan because they know he's not the seer, they might be afraid of another BG block). If that's the case, we only need a little favorable luck to get a win today.

[JAG]

Originally Posted by Lathum

So coming off a tie yesterday and thanks to AlanT getting a wolf I am wondering if no lynch and going for a win is the way to go.

Thoughts?

That's my inclination too. Right now we have 16 players. Once we get below the 14 player threshold, our average points we need per position rises from 57 to 61.5 and another 4.5 points per player after that (assuming we only get full bench points if we have a 3 person bench), so we probably want to slow the game down at this point since we already eliminated one wolf.

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by JAG

Pass, if we don't have enough players for a full bench, do we receive (average of bench players) / 3 or (average of bench players) / (# of bench players) points for a match?

Even if you do have a full bench, you get the 3 highest averages -- in the case of Game 1, you got 62 from LoneStarGirl, 48 from PurdueBrad, and 46 from Chief Rum. Telle and GoldenEagle's skill levels weren't counted. So if you can only have 3 bench players, you can still run at maximum capacity. If a day begins such that KWhit realizes he won't even have 3 bench players, he may institute a new substitution method (I'm only using his name for flavor here, this is something I will do, not him), which will change how bench players are used. I hope that answers your question!

[KWhit]

I would like us to go with a No Lynch strategy today and try to win games. Hopefully we win today and put serious pressure on the wolves.

[GoldenEagle]

Originally Posted by Darth Vilus

Oh i see, makes sense

And EAT IT GOLDENEAGLE! 94 AT STRIKER HOMIE! wHO'S THE BEST PLAYER?

Getting serious for a moment, anyone think it's odd that GE would try to throw suspicion my way when I am a huge asset to winning games? First he says not to protect me than says that I might be a wolf. Looks like he's trying to kill me anyway he can. Very suspicious I must say. I mean no one can be that delusional, can they?

I was not suggesting that we lynch you. I was just merely stating that we needed to be cautious of our best players. We can't afford to fall into a trap of keeping our best players around even though the evidence points to the fact that they may be wolves.

I am not saying we need to lynch you at this point, I am just stating that it would be wise to be aware.

[Chief Rum]

A chance to start a COT?

I would have come out with this yesterday, but I wanted to confirm an ambiguity with Pass. I heard back from him today, so now I can announce:

I was the one who was attacked last night/yesterday. So the BG protected me.

That means the BG won't be able to protect me today, although now that my value is out there as a player, I'm not sure there would be a point in protecting me again.

[KWhit]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

The match is a tough affair – the squad falls 0-1 early, but a late goal equalizes, and the match ends in a 1-1 draw. Man of the Match is Darth Vilus. The squad will feel they might have scored more goals, if not for J23, who would not recognize the great game by Darth, and took too many shots himself.

The skill levels, in descending order:

1. Darth Vilus, Striker, 94
2. Alan T, Center Back, 81
3. lerriuqs, Full Back, 65
4. Schmidty, Center Midfielder, 54
5. DaddyTorgo, Full Back, 52
6. JAG, Winger, 28
7. Mia Ow, Winger, 28
8. claphamsa, Winger, 24
9. Lathum, Center Back, 22
10. The Jackal, Goalkeeper, 15
11. J23, Striker, 14

Bench players:

1. LoneStarGirl, 62
2. PurdueBrad, 48
3. Chief Rum, 46
4. Telle, 45
5. GoldenEagle, 43

Total: 633
Result: Draw
Points: 1

Day 2 Begins!!!

Hey, Pass.

I took a closer look at this and see that you have us down for 3 wingers. I had claphamsa playing at central midfielder. It's no biggie, but I need to know for my lineup calculations, if the 24 skill level is his winger skill or his center midfield skill level.

Thanks!

[claphamsa]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

A chance to start a COT?

I would have come out with this yesterday, but I wanted to confirm an ambiguity with Pass. I heard back from him today, so now I can announce:

I was the one who was attacked last night/yesterday. So the BG protected me.

That means the BG won't be able to protect me today, although now that my value is out there as a player, I'm not sure there would be a point in protecting me again.

so pass told you that you were attacked?

hmmmmmmmmm interesting! I guess that makes you good

[claphamsa]

ok, so alan and Kwitt are good.... CR is most likely good... and I am good so that is 4

[GoldenEagle]

Originally Posted by DaddyTorgo

i wonder if GE is a wolf and all his talk about being the best has been a way to try to setup his defense rather than him being more in-charactery?

i don't necessarily have any opinion, just floating the thought.

Look, mate, I don't want to refer to you as a wanker or anything, but your kind of being one. I guess its a good thing the jealous role has already been exposed or else I would be pinning that on you, yea?

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by KWhit

Hey, Pass.

I took a closer look at this and see that you have us down for 3 wingers. I had claphamsa playing at central midfielder. It's no biggie, but I need to know for my lineup calculations, if the 24 skill level is his winger skill or his center midfield skill level.

Thanks!

My bad -- his skill level was from central midfielder, I just typed in the wrong word.

[KWhit]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

My bad -- his skill level was from central midfielder, I just typed in the wrong word.

No prob.

[DaddyTorgo]

Originally Posted by GoldenEagle

Look, mate, I don't want to refer to you as a wanker or anything, but your kind of being one. I guess its a good thing the jealous role has already been exposed or else I would be pinning that on you, yea?

i think KWhit should seriously consider moving people around (such as myself) whose skills are hovering right around average. i think in that case that the possible gain far outweighs the loss. if he keeps me where i am i give 52pts, but if he moves me and finds my natural position i could account for almost 2 full players worth of points.

i hope he's keeping good notes too...

[KWhit]

Originally Posted by DaddyTorgo

i think KWhit should seriously consider moving people around (such as myself) whose skills are hovering right around average. i think in that case that the possible gain far outweighs the loss. if he keeps me where i am i give 52pts, but if he moves me and finds my natural position i could account for almost 2 full players worth of points.

i hope he's keeping good notes too...

I am keeping good notes. My spreadsheet is loaded with info.

But I'm keeping my strategy close to my vest. I hear there are wolves running about.

[J23]

Originally Posted by DaddyTorgo

i think KWhit should seriously consider moving people around (such as myself) whose skills are hovering right around average. i think in that case that the possible gain far outweighs the loss. if he keeps me where i am i give 52pts, but if he moves me and finds my natural position i could account for almost 2 full players worth of points.

i hope he's keeping good notes too...

It's a risk either way. If you're hovering around average, you should have about the same chance of having a lower score vs. a higher score. If we're this close to winning games, how much do you want to mess with the team?

[Chief Rum]

Pass, were the skill sets handed out completely random, across the board, or are we, as a representative squad of a soccer team, broken down into natural CBs, FBs, MFs, STs; etc. such that we can presume there will be 2-3 good CBs, 2-3 good STs, 2-3 good WGs, 2-3 good FBs, etc.?

If it's the former, it's entirely possible we could all be great STs for instance, and none of us good CBs (although as a random pull, that would be very much against the odds).

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

Pass, were the skill sets handed out completely random, across the board, or are we, as a representative squad of a soccer team, broken down into natural CBs, FBs, MFs, STs; etc. such that we can presume there will be 2-3 good CBs, 2-3 good STs, 2-3 good WGs, 2-3 good FBs, etc.?

If it's the former, it's entirely possible we could all be great STs for instance, and none of us good CBs (although as a random pull, that would be very much against the odds).

Completely random. I asked random.org for 114 random numbers in 6 columns, then pasted them next to your names (then I deleted the row for KWhit).

[claphamsa]

just a note, 3 hours till deadline... and we only have one vote! I wont vote super early again (apparently it makes me a target!)


in the mean time im gonna go to practice and see how i do in net!

[J23]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

If it's the former, it's entirely possible we could all be great STs for instance, and none of us good CBs (although as a random pull, that would be very much against the odds).

This is impossible. I have proven that I am a terrible striker.

[KWhit]

Vote No Lynch

[Passacaglia]

Oh man, votes are flying now!! Let me try to keep up:

Chief Rum 1 -- LoneStarGirl (387)
No Lynch 1 -- Kwhit (423)

[Chief Rum]

I'm going to support the No Lynch today as well.

Yesterday went well for the village; we have some leeway, at least for a day.

VOTE NO LYNCH

[Passacaglia]

Hey all -- I just found out my office is having an October Fest lunch thing from 1:00 to 2:30. I'm not sure if I'm going to go down for the whole thing, but just thought I'd let you know that results come late. Deadline will remain the same, however.

[GoldenEagle]

I am a bit suspicious of Chief. He is wish-washy yesterday with his voting tactics. He was also surprised when I jumped on the train, stating later he did not really want anyone to follow him.

Now we have this reveal, which I guess is okay. But I am not 100% trustworthy yet. I am not as gullible as Clap, I suppose.

[claphamsa]

Oktoberfest? dont drink too much beer at work events... thats my motto!

[Alan T]

I feel you all are going in the wrong direction here. I think if nothing else, we are making it easier to have good decisions with a lynch vote today than yesterday even.

Based on yesterday's events or at least how things played out, I am ok with us not looking at the following for a vote:


1. claphamsa
3. KWhit
12. Chief Rum
14. Alan T


Based on the scores yesterday at that position it makes sense to not have a vote on the following players so they can help us win. This is a list of people with at least 50+ at the position they played at. Keep in mind Danny had good ratings when he died, so a good player skill wise does not mean they are not a wolf. also DT and Schmidty arguably could be left off of this list if Kwhit is not planning on playing them there again anyways:

16. Darth Vilus
7. lerriuqs
10. Schmidty
9. DaddyTorgo



So that leaves us a good selection of players that I would imagine has at least 2 wolves in it (along with perhaps 2 good roles we can say). The catch is that I'm not overly worried if we accidently get the duke, he can always move the vote elsewhere. So I think all things considered it is in our advantage to try to pick two of the following list and see where it leads us (while making sure kwhit doesn't play the players looking likely to receive a vote):


2. Telle
4. PurdueBrad
5. JAG
6. J23
8. The Jackal
11. Lathum
15. GoldenEagle
17. Mia Ow
19. LoneStarGirl

[PurdueBrad]

I'll support this move (and lets win one!):

vote no lynch

[PurdueBrad]

Originally Posted by Alan T

Based on the scores yesterday at that position it makes sense to not have a vote on the following players so they can help us win. This is a list of people with at least 50+ at the position they played at. Keep in mind Danny had good ratings when he died, so a good player skill wise does not mean they are not a wolf. also DT and Schmidty arguably could be left off of this list if Kwhit is not planning on playing them there again anyways:

16. Darth Vilus
7. lerriuqs
10. Schmidty
9. DaddyTorgo



So that leaves us a good selection of players that I would imagine has at least 2 wolves in it (along with perhaps 2 good roles we can say). The catch is that I'm not overly worried if we accidently get the duke, he can always move the vote elsewhere. So I think all things considered it is in our advantage to try to pick two of the following list and see where it leads us (while making sure kwhit doesn't play the players looking likely to receive a vote):


2. Telle
4. PurdueBrad
5. JAG
6. J23
8. The Jackal
11. Lathum
15. GoldenEagle
17. Mia Ow
19. LoneStarGirl

There is one problem with voting for the bench people (yeah, I'm one so I have self-interest here) and that is that none of us were judged on positional standards, we were judged on how good of a bench player we are. I wouldn't yet throw people out from there yet either, because put them in the game and they (or me!) could be big as well.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by Alan T

I feel you all are going in the wrong direction here. I think if nothing else, we are making it easier to have good decisions with a lynch vote today than yesterday even.

Based on yesterday's events or at least how things played out, I am ok with us not looking at the following for a vote:


1. claphamsa
3. KWhit
12. Chief Rum
14. Alan T


Based on the scores yesterday at that position it makes sense to not have a vote on the following players so they can help us win. This is a list of people with at least 50+ at the position they played at. Keep in mind Danny had good ratings when he died, so a good player skill wise does not mean they are not a wolf. also DT and Schmidty arguably could be left off of this list if Kwhit is not planning on playing them there again anyways:

16. Darth Vilus
7. lerriuqs
10. Schmidty
9. DaddyTorgo



So that leaves us a good selection of players that I would imagine has at least 2 wolves in it (along with perhaps 2 good roles we can say). The catch is that I'm not overly worried if we accidently get the duke, he can always move the vote elsewhere. So I think all things considered it is in our advantage to try to pick two of the following list and see where it leads us (while making sure kwhit doesn't play the players looking likely to receive a vote):


2. Telle
4. PurdueBrad
5. JAG
6. J23
8. The Jackal
11. Lathum
15. GoldenEagle
17. Mia Ow
19. LoneStarGirl

I'm not against lynching someone if it comes to it. I'm just thinking it was certainly a consideration yesterday to do a No Lynch, and today, circumstances are better for it.

But I am certainly willing to consider what candidates are out there.

[claphamsa]

Originally Posted by GoldenEagle

I am a bit suspicious of Chief. He is wish-washy yesterday with his voting tactics. He was also surprised when I jumped on the train, stating later he did not really want anyone to follow him.

Now we have this reveal, which I guess is okay. But I am not 100% trustworthy yet. I am not as gullible as Clap, I suppose.

wha?

vote Goldensparrow!

I R not GULLIBLE!

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by GoldenEagle

I am a bit suspicious of Chief. He is wish-washy yesterday with his voting tactics. He was also surprised when I jumped on the train, stating later he did not really want anyone to follow him.

Now we have this reveal, which I guess is okay. But I am not 100% trustworthy yet. I am not as gullible as Clap, I suppose.

I wasn't surprised you followed, just not keen that you did it.

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by PurdueBrad

There is one problem with voting for the bench people (yeah, I'm one so I have self-interest here) and that is that none of us were judged on positional standards, we were judged on how good of a bench player we are. I wouldn't yet throw people out from there yet either, because put them in the game and they (or me!) could be big as well.

If Kwhit is planning on playing say you or Mia Ow as a striker. You are no more or less likely of being a great striker than Mia is today. So if the group consensus was to vote you out, Kwhit can put in Mia as striker and have the same odds of finding a good one as any other player. Without affecting our performance from yesterday.

That said, you do bring up a good point, perhaps J23 could be a good candidate for two reasons.. 1) He didn't vote yesterday, and 2) we already know he is bad at one position so mathematically is that less likely to help us. (since according to pass, it was all random numbers, so just because he is bad at one position it doesn't mean he is good at another one).

I might lean towards J23 with my vote after thinking this through some.

[Schmidty]

I still hate the No Lynch idea. I seriously think that the odds of winning enough points is very low, and to let the wolves keep picking us off in the meantime without even trying to get at them and get some kind voting pattern, is folly.

But hey, that's just me. I'll think about jumping on the bandwagon if it looks like my vote won't count, but I will be a very unhappy passenger.

[claphamsa]

Originally Posted by Schmidty

I still hate the No Lynch idea. I seriously think that the odds of winning enough points is very low, and to let the wolves keep picking us off in the meantime without even trying to get at them and get some kind voting pattern, is folly.

But hey, that's just me. I'll think about jumping on the bandwagon if it looks like my vote won't count, but I will be a very unhappy passenger.

FWIW they havent picked one of us off yet!

[Alan T]

Looking at the results from yesterday, I guess I wouldn't mind seeing a run off between J23 and TheJackal. Both of them scored poorly at their position in the game, thus perhaps less likely for kwhit to have a place to play them today. Plus both have other non-scoring issues to deal with, J23 missed the vote entirely yesterday while TheJackal kind of came off weird in how he responded some yesterday, I had flashbacks from when Anxiety used to be bad in WW games.

Might not be anything to that though, but either way I still think we have a better chance of success with a lynch today then yesterday as the odds have improved for us there.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by Schmidty

I still hate the No Lynch idea. I seriously think that the odds of winning enough points is very low, and to let the wolves keep picking us off in the meantime without even trying to get at them and get some kind voting pattern, is folly.

But hey, that's just me. I'll think about jumping on the bandwagon if it looks like my vote won't count, but I will be a very unhappy passenger.

I don't disagree with this but who do you think we should vote for then?

[KWhit]

It's going to get tougher to win games as our numbers dwindle. That is going to happen anyway due to wolf night kills. I just don't want to make that happen any faster by lynching players.

I think time is on our side - we still have a seer. We still have a full squad of players. I'm learning more every game about who's good at which position...

Basically, the longer we can keep the game going, the better it is for us. That is why we should go with a No Lynch vote today.

[GoldenEagle]

To be honest, I think we are concentrating a bit too much on winning games. It is not likely that we are going get enough points to win in that manner. Therefore, I am in the lynching corner. But we have to be careful who we lynch as they might have a role that could help us out.

I suggest we go with one of AlanT's suggestions, and TheJackal seems like the easy choice.

VOTE The Jackal

[KWhit]

Originally Posted by GoldenEagle

To be honest, I think we are concentrating a bit too much on winning games. It is not likely that we are going get enough points to win in that manner. Therefore, I am in the lynching corner. But we have to be careful who we lynch as they might have a role that could help us out.

I suggest we go with one of AlanT's suggestions, and TheJackal seems like the easy choice.

VOTE The Jackal

Why do you say that?

[JAG]

Alan, a couple things:

1. LSG should not be a consideration to lynch at this point because her average score is very high, so she's likely to do well wherever we put her. She should be in your group of 'good players so don't look there for a lynch'.

2. If you're going to go by score as a determination of people to lynch, looking to the bench for a player with a low average is superior mathematically than killing someone that played in the field because we know GE for example only averages 43 points per position. It's possible J23 had a 14 rating at the position he played at but 75+ across the board. Once they get a chance on the bench, we'll be able to figure out what KWhit can average putting them somewhere else. So using J23 as an example, if he turns out to have a 53 average on the bench, putting him on the field should yield us:

(5x + 14) / 6 = 53
5x + 14 = 318
5x = 304
x = 60.8 at any of the other 5 positions

Of course if people end up with worse averages, they would be potential lynch targets. Again, this all assumes everything else is equal. Obviously if we have reason to believe someone is a wolf, all bets may be off.

[Passacaglia]

Vote count:

Chief Rum 1 -- LoneStarGirl (387)
No Lynch 3 -- Kwhit (423) Chief Rum (425) PurdueBrad (430)
GoldenEagle 1 -- claphamsa (433)
The Jackal 1 -- GoldenEagle (441)

[JAG]

Originally Posted by JAG

our average score for this upcoming game should be 746 points, 54 points short of a win. However there are other considerations that might keep wolves from going with optimal strategy (i.e. Darth might be a wolf, they might choose not to go after Alan because they know he's not the seer, they might be afraid of another BG block). If that's the case, we only need a little favorable luck to get a win today.

Just quoting this from my earlier calculations for the players claiming that they don't think we can win. Today KWhit only needs a little luck in order for us to win, but with an average performance and assuming the wolves are able to kill off one of our top performers, we should be able to improve our score from yesterday by a little over 100 points.

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by JAG

Alan, a couple things:

1. LSG should not be a consideration to lynch at this point because her average score is very high, so she's likely to do well wherever we put her. She should be in your group of 'good players so don't look there for a lynch'.

I think this point makes sense. LSG has a great average, and I'm guessing Kwhit is going to try to plug her in somewhere this game. So probably can put LSG on the I wouldn't vote for her list as well.


The other bench players all had averages that were mediocre at best, so I don't know that really convinces me to change my mind any on them. Even if they had one good score, you would spend a week trying to find the right position possibly.

I think in the end though we got lucky yesterday more than anything else. I don't expect to go another night without a kill.

[Chief Rum]

FWIW, we don't have averages for the starters, so it's possible that the bench players are actually not too bad.

[J23]

Originally Posted by Alan T

That said, you do bring up a good point, perhaps J23 could be a good candidate for two reasons.. 1) He didn't vote yesterday, and 2) we already know he is bad at one position so mathematically is that less likely to help us. (since according to pass, it was all random numbers, so just because he is bad at one position it doesn't mean he is good at another one).

I might lean towards J23 with my vote after thinking this through some.

I apologized for no vote yesterday, but I did warn folks beforehand that the deadline could be problematic for me. Work has been hectic, and I didn't log in at all yesterday until after 6pm EST. If you still want to hold it against me and vote for me because of it, I guess that is up to you.

As far as score goes, yeah, mine sucked as striker. That doesn't have any bearing on my other positions however. If we're voting the people with the lowest scores, wouldn't GoldenEagle be a better choice since he has the lowest known average score? (That is what the bench score is, correct?)

For now, I'm going to vote no lynch. I'm not sure we really need to kill anyone to win games and thus, the game.

[JAG]

Originally Posted by Alan T

I think this point makes sense. LSG has a great average, and I'm guessing Kwhit is going to try to plug her in somewhere this game. So probably can put LSG on the I wouldn't vote for her list as well.


The other bench players all had averages that were mediocre at best, so I don't know that really convinces me to change my mind any on them. Even if they had one good score, you would spend a week trying to find the right position possibly.

I think in the end though we got lucky yesterday more than anything else. I don't expect to go another night without a kill.

Alan, that was my point 2, that if we want to go by scores, we should look at those with low scores on the bench because there were a number with an average below 50. If the players who sucked on the field come back with an average of 30 or so on the bench, they would be first to go from a mathematics standpoint.

I think the choice comes down to what option gives us the best chance of winning, playing a regular game of WW or trying to use the game mechanism before switching to regular WW (unless we can win outright by playing the game). If we lynch today and tomorrow, we will have 12 players left (assuming the wolves get two NK's in). After that, we would need 72 points across each starter position to win a game, which seems unlikely.

[Lathum]

gotta get a vote in

Vote GoldenEagle

mostly a gut feeling here